Thursday, October 10, 2024

College Football Picks 2024: Week Seven

Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State
Current Picks Record: 32-21

Upsets: 3-4

Superdogs: 2-3


(#2) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#3) Oregon Ducks

Line: Ohio State -3

O/U: 53.5

For the first time, Oregon and Ohio State are meeting as conference opponents, with both looking for a statement win to bolster their resume. Both sit at a perfect 5-0, but neither have been tested in the way they will be on Saturday. Whoever responds in the raucous environment of Autzen Stadium will decide who becomes the league favorite and heads into next weekend with a six in the win column.

The prevailing logic heading into the fall around Oregon was that their offense would not skip a beat, despite the departures of Bo Nix and Bucky Irving. Dillon Gabriel transferred in as a veteran quarterback with one of the most accomplished track records in recent college football memory, and had an abundance of weapons surrounding him and offensive coordinator Will Stein. Statistically, the Ducks have been impressive, putting up 35 points per contest, but it hasn't been the complete dominance most expected coming into the year. Gabriel has had some shaky moments, highlighted by two questionable red zone interceptions in their win over Michigan State last Friday, but their competition hasn't been able to take advantage. That is not going to be the case on Saturday - they face a Buckeye secondary that features superstar Caleb Downs and steady corner Denzel Burke, with ultra-versatile Sonny Styles also moving all over the field. Jim Knowles is a tactician at confusing and disrupting opposing offenses, and despite Gabriel's experience, he's been prone to shockingly bad throws. Fortunately, he'll have the support of a fabulous ground game, led by Jordan James, plus Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden out wide. Add in one of the nation's top line, one that has absolutely mauled their competition so far this fall, Oregon has all the ingredients to be a high-flying, unstoppable offense. It just feels like they're still fitting the pieces together in the right way, and the Buckeyes are quite the test. Beyond the secondary, a relentless front seven that includes future NFL Draftees like Jack Sawyer, J.T. Tuimoloau, and Ty Hamilton is a stiff challenge. Oregon is not going to be able to push around these guys like they have against the Michigan States and Oregon States of the world. How will they handle that adversity will tell us a lot about their chances not only in this one, but the rest of the season.

Ohio State has faced an even weaker slate up to this point in the year, although beating down an Iowa team that has given them troubles in the past was quite the exclamation point. The Buckeyes have looked a bit crisper than the Ducks, on both sides of the ball, but also seem to still be figuring things out as they reach the midway point of the regular season. Will Howard is certainly not the flashiest quarterback to ever start under center for the Buckeyes, but the rock-solid veteran has had no issues distributing the ball to the weapons Ohio State features on the perimeter, most notably Emeka Egbuka and freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes can pound with the best of them in much the way Oregon can, with Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson the most feared 1-2 punch in the country. Chip Kelly has taken a fairly conservative approach to his playcalling so far, leaning on their advantage in the trenches and taking the occasional deep shot when necessary. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a few tricks up his sleeve going up against the school he became a household name at - the Buckeyes are undoubtedly saving different plays and formations. The Duck defense does offer quite the challenge, but I'm not sure it's quite at the Ohio State level defensively. They are stout up front, but I do believe this is a team you can stretch vertically and hit the big play or two - we'll see how aggressive the Buckeyes choose to be.

This game is going to tell us a lot about both teams, as we simply don't know as much as we should about two teams that are both considered National Championship contenders. Oregon clearly retains an important advantage with Ohio State having to travel to Eugene, but their first five weeks have felt just a bit... underwhelming. Maybe it's a situation where they need the elevated competition to truly show what they're capable of, but the Buckeyes inspire much more confidence at this juncture. Even on the road, I like them to come out victorious.

The Pick: Ohio State, 31 Oregon, 27


(#1) Texas Longhorns @ (#18) Oklahoma Sooners (Dallas)

Line: Texas -14

O/U: 49.5

The 120th edition of the Red River Rivalry brings with it a sense of new, as this will be the first team both programs collide as members of the SEC. It also brings together two teams with differing goals heading into the weekend. For Texas, they are looking to avenge last year's defeat and continue their quest towards a National Title, while Oklahoma is looking to enter the back-half of a brutal schedule with just one loss to their name.

After Arch Manning started the last two games for the Longhorns, the expectation is that Quinn Ewers will be ready to go following the bye week. Manning played well in his absence, but Ewers gives this Texas a different dynamic. He's not going to run in the way Arch can, but he's a much stronger downfield passer at this point in his career and the offense just flows more naturally under his leadership, which is to be expected of a multiyear starter. Alongside Ewers, the rest of the Longhorn supporting cast is still coming into its own, but there have been several pleasant surprises. The combo of Jerrick Gibson and Quintrevion Wisner looks like it could overtake Jaydon Blue at running back, while Isaiah Bond and Ryan Wingo have been a fearsome big-play duo on the outside. Wingo, still just a freshman has to strike fear into the hearts of the Sooner defense, as he's averaging nearly 23 yards per catch and now gets Ewers throwing him the ball. But, the real fuel behind this Texas offense so far this season has been their offensive line, which looks in line to be a Joe Moore Award frontrunner. Kelvin Banks Jr. and D.J. Campbell are the two that are likely to be high NFL Draft selections, but the entire unit has been in sync and has terrorized even strong opposing defensive fronts. Look no further than the Michigan game, where Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant were completely swallowed by this offensive line. Even against an Oklahoma defense that has improved rapidly under Brent Venables, that edge up front should set the tone for the entire game.

We got so used to explosive Sooner offenses under Lincoln Riley, it's been strange to see them struggle so much throughout this fall. They currently rank 118th in the country in passing offense and 100th in rushing offense and their 28.6 points per game are heavily inflated by several defensive touchdowns. Highly touted quarterback Jackson Arnold has been benched in favor of freshman Michael Hawkins, who was solid in his first start against Auburn but wasn't asked to do very much. Hawkins is considered more of a dual-threat than Arnold, but the offense still feels limited with him under center - although Arnold proved to not be any sort of improvement. Yet, the biggest issue for this Oklahoma offense may be what's surrounding the quarterback position. They're beat up at both running back and receiver and the offensive line, for so long the backbone of this high-flying offense, has been shockingly bad. Things got even worse this week when Deion Burks, the leading receiver, was ruled out for this game. It's hard to know where the offense is going to come from - the return of freshman Taylor Tatum at tailback is a bright spot, but there really is not a single player on this roster that has to strike fear into the Longhorns. That's particularly concerning considering how strong the Texas defense has been not just this fall, but over the past year-and-a-half. Gone are the talented but undisciplined Longhorn defenses that plagued Mack Brown, Charlie Strong, and Tom Herman. Instead, this defense is both athletic and fundamentally sound, filling gaps as well as anybody in the country and forcing opposing offenses into uncomfortable situations. 

With Red River, you can never be too sure how this game will play out. We've seen plenty of occasions where a heavy underdog was able to pull off the upset. Just think about last season, when Texas came in as the clear favorite, and the Sooners came out and pulled off the upset, the lone regular season defeat for the Longhorns. Oklahoma will surely use a similar strategy, looking to make this one ugly and a low-scoring affair. But, I just don't see how they find a way to come out on top, unless Texas has serious turnover issues and the Sooners score multiple defensive touchdowns. Perhaps they find a way to cover in a rock fight, but the Longhorns are a comfortable winner.

The Pick: Texas, 24 Oklahoma, 13


(#9) Ole Miss Rebels @ (#13) LSU Tigers

Line: Ole Miss -3.5

O/U: 61.5

As both Ole Miss and LSU enter Week Seven with a loss apiece, there's little margin for error over the next two months for two teams with College Football Playoff aspirations. Fortunately, there's plenty of opportunities to pad their respective resumes, starting with this contest on Saturday night.

LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier may not be Jayden Daniels, but he's been awful good since taking over as Tiger starter this fall. He's been the head of one of the best passing offenses in the country, one that features a balanced and deep receiver corps. Aaron Anderson, Kyren Lacy, and C.J. Daniels will all get plenty of chances on the outside, while tight end Mason Taylor works the middle of the field. It's quite a challenge for an Ole Miss defense that is loaded with NFL talent up front, but has serious question marks on the back-end. The Rebels should be in a good spot to contain an LSU rush offense that has been mediocre since Brian Kelly took charge, but the battle in the trenches could be a different story. Will Campbell and Emery Jones are arguably the top tackle duo in the nation, and as long as the interior can handle pass rushers like Walter Nolen and company, they should be in a good enough spot to keep Nussmeier upright and this offense firing. One question still left to be answered is how the pace of the game plays. LSU is going to look to speed things up on this side of the ball, and Ole Miss will look to slow it down, with several opposing coaches calling them out for what appear to be fake injuries intended to stop the game during a no-huddle. Whether or not you fully buy it, it's clear that the Rebels are going to look to grind this one down to a halt and take LSU out of their rhythm. Now, whether that proves to be successful on the road at night in Baton Rouge remains to be seen.

Speaking of explosive passing offenses, look no further than what the Ole Miss Rebels. With veteran Jaxson Dart under center, Ole Miss is chucking it all over the field, averaging nearly 373 yards per game. That's been crucial as the Rebel ground game has struggled to get rolling without Quinshon Judkins, but I am curious to see what Dart we see in this one. Although he threw for 285 yards against South Carolina, he wasn't very efficient, completing just over 50% of his throws. Something felt off, whether he's not 100 percent or dealing with something else, the Rebels need him at his peak if they are to win a difficult road game. The fortunate thing for them is that this LSU secondary remains full of holes, with one of the most porous secondaries in the nation. They've at least been slightly better in defending against the big play, but you can still certainly gash them, and the Rebels have the athletes on the perimeter to do it. Blake Baker has been creative in disguising this weakness as best he can on this side of the ball, but this is not an ideal matchup for him, or this LSU defense as a whole.

Both these teams have had their ups-and-downs over the first month-and-half of the season, but they remain supremely talented and still firmly in the mix for the CFB Playoff. This should be a fun, one too - with both secondaries have their fair share of questions against these quarterbacks, expect points galore. It's hard to feel overly confident about either one of these teams one way or another considering they feel evenly matched, but I trust LSU more in games like these. Ole Miss has a frustrating knack for playing down in the biggest games, and now they have to travel into Baton Rouge for a primetime night game. The Tigers still have their own issues, but I think they do enough to come out on top in a potential shootout.

The Pick: LSU, 40 Ole Miss, 35


Other Picks

(#4) Penn State Nittany Lions @ USC Trojans -- USC feels like much better than a .500 team, but life in the Big Ten is difficult. Going across the country will be a tough challenge for the Nittany Lions, but they are playing well enough to finish the job.

The Pick: Penn State, 31 USC, 24

(#18) Kansas State Wildcats @ Colorado Buffaloes -- Keep your eye on the upset in this one - there's serious "Pac-12 After Dark" energy here. With that being said, the much improved Colorado defense has taken advantage of some of the worst passing offenses in the Big 12 in recent weeks. It will be a different story against Avery Johnson and the Wildcats.

The Pick: Kansas State, 38 Colorado, 34

Florida Gators @ (#8) Tennessee Volunteers -- Tennessee's ugly loss to Arkansas last week was a shocker. I have a suspicion they'll be back with a vengeance. The Gator defense hasn't taken the steps forward most expected they would this fall, so I see a big day incoming from Nico Iamaleava.

The Pick: Tennessee, 37 Florida, 20

Upset: (#11) Iowa State Cyclones @ West Virginia Mountaineers -- Iowa State may still be undefeated, but this has not looked like a Top 10 team. In the wacky Big 12, it feels like someone is going to get them, and Morgantown is fertile grounds for an upset.

The Pick: West Virginia, 24 Iowa State, 21

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Mississippi State Bulldogs (+35) @ Georgia Bulldogs -- I considered picking Mississippi State to cover against Texas and mistakenly didn't. Sure, Georgia is a whole different team, but perhaps I'll strike it right this time around. The Bulldogs aren't exactly decimating their competition, so this feels like it could be in play.

The Pick: Georgia, 42 Mississippi State, 13

Lock of the Week: Minnesota Golden Gophers (-3.5) @ UCLA Bruins -- It would be very Minnesota-esque to lose this one after the biggest win of their season, but this UCLA is bad. Potentially 1-2 wins this season bad. Add in the fact Ethan Garbers is out at quarterback, I'll roll with the Gophers. Although, it wouldn't be a shock if Justyn Martin comes on in relief and balls out.

The Pick: Minnesota, 28 UCLA, 14

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