Current Picks Record: 24-11
Jalen Milroe, Alabama
Upsets: 2-2
Superdogs: 2-2
Locks: 1-3
(#2) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#4) Alabama Crimson Tide
Line: Georgia -2
O/U: 48.5
Nick Saban may be gone, but the animosity between Alabama and Georgia is high as ever as we head into their pivotal regular season matchup on Saturday. Alabama's victory in last year's SEC Championship Game effectively knocked the Bulldogs out of the College Football Playoff and killed their dreams of a three-peat. Now, the Crimson Tide welcome Georgia to Bryant-Denny Stadium with both teams trying to add the crown jewel to their Playoff resumes.
The last time we saw Georgia on the field wasn't the type of dominant performance we've come to expect of Kirby Smart's Bulldogs, but they had the bye week at the right time last weekend. After managing just 262 yards and 13 points in an ugly win over Kentucky, the Bulldogs are hoping their offense is fresh and ready to attack this Alabama defense. Getting more from their ground game will be paramount - Georgia managed just 3.4 yards per carry against a stifling Wildcat defensive front, and it threw the entire offense out of their rhythm. It doesn't help that Georgia is beat up along the offensive line, but this is still a much better rushing attack than what we saw. I suspect they'll look to rotate more beyond just Trevor Etienne, so expect to see more of Branson Robinson and Nate Frazier, and also look to get more of their playmakers in space in creative ways. Dillon Bell in particular has been held in check all season long, but he feels like the type of versatile game-changer that is going to have to show up for the Bulldog offense to get rolling. They should have their opportunities against the Crimson Tide, as this is simply not the same group we saw dominate for so long in the peak Saban years when Kirby Smart just happened to be their defensive coordinator. That's not to say Alabama will be a pushover, as they'll still attack up front, but there's not the same depth here and the secondary has taken their lumps so far on the young season. The gameplan has to be for Georgia to pound the rock early and tire out this defense, with the hopes that the play-action passing game will open up in the second half. It may have a feel more similar to what we came to expect of this rivalry back in the mid-2010s before these offenses really took off in recent years.
Alabama also has had their moments of offensive struggles, most notably in the South Florida game, but still enters this one averaging 49 points per game. It's not a surprise that Kalen DeBoer has come in and the transition has been so smooth - we saw the same thing at Washington. But, it has been surprising how much balance we've seen from them and how productive they've been on the ground. We got so used to seeing DeBoer and Washington chuck the ball all over the field, it's easy to forget that the rushing attack plays a key role in setting up so many of their opportunities. Between Jam Miller, Justice Haynes, and Jalen Milroe, Alabama is going to test this Georgia front seven in a way they simply haven't been tested so far in 2024. The Tide should also benefit from their offensive line continuing to get healthier and healthier, with Kadyn Proctor back to near 100 percent after returning for the Wisconsin game. It's a matchup that should be advantageous for the Crimson Tide, going up against a Bulldog rush defense that hasn't proven themselves just yet, as opposed to their superb secondary. But still, Jalen Milroe is going to make some key throws in order to come out on top and avoiding costly turnovers could make all the difference. It would certainly help if the Tide got more consistency from their receiver corps beyond freshman phenom Ryan Williams, namely from Kobe Prentice and Germie Bernard.
This has all the makings of another classic between two of college football's premier programs. Neither program is at their peak or playing their best football, but both rosters are loaded with talent, and DeBoer's presence adds an interesting dynamic to this renewed rivalry. You better believe he'll have some tricks up his sleeve for the Bulldogs and playing in Tuscaloosa is an obvious factor working in their favor. But even so, something about Georgia just feels like they are going to come out in this one swinging. They'll be fresh and Smart always has his teams ready for these types of games, with the added layer of motivation after the loss last season. They feel like the more complete team at this stage of the season, and I think they go into Bryant-Denny and squeak out the win.
The Pick: Georgia, 31 Alabama, 28
(#19) Illinois Fighting Illini @ (#9) Penn State Nittany Lions
Line: Penn State -18.5
O/U: 47.5
Oregon and Ohio State may still sit above them in the polls, but Penn State's impressive start to the 2024 campaign has them thinking Big Ten Title as they kick off their conference season this weekend. But arriving in town is none other than Illinois, a pleasant surprise through the first four weeks fresh off a big win. The Fighting Illini would love nothing more than to come into Happy Valley and spoil Penn State's undefeated record.
Just a month into the season, Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki looks like the Broyles Award frontrunner, with the Nittany Lion offensive renaissance on full display through their first three games. Penn State is one of just two teams, the other being Tennessee, currently averaging 250+ passing yards and 250+ rushing yards at this point of the season, with the trio of Drew Allar, Nicholas Singleton, and Kaytron Allen leading the way. Allar has played with a confidence we didn't see last season, and has been willing to take his shots down the field, giving PSU a verticality to this offense we haven't seen from them since Trace McSorley was running the show. In turn, that's opened things up for Allen and Singleton, and we've gotten to see the home run hitting ability of Singleton on full display, averaging over eight yards per carry. The Nittany Lion receiver corps deserves plenty of credit, too, as this was a group that struggled mightily throughout 2023. So far this fall, Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans have been terrific, with tight end Tyler Warren the type of matchup nightmare every offense needs in this day and age. That's all to say that this is going to be quite the stiff challenge for an Illinois defense that has put together a strong start to the season themselves. In both of their big wins, over Kansas and Nebraska, they've done a superb job limiting the big play and keeping everything in front, and this is a sure tackling team that fills gaps as well as any team at this level. They don't have the athletes Penn State can boast, but they'll make the Nittany Lions work for their yardage in a way others simply haven't. With that being said, a big run from Singleton or big throw from Allar could open the floodgates.
The Illini defense still remains the strength of the team, but their steady improvement offensively is another reason for their 4-0 start. This is never going to be a unit that's going to go out and drop 50 points a night, but it's been highly efficient and consistent through the first few weeks of the season. Quarterback Luke Altmyer is finally starting to look like the blue-chip prospect we saw coming out of high school, with ten touchdowns to zero interceptions through the first four weeks. He's benefitted from the stellar play of Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin, a pair of physical receivers that are brutal covers on the perimeter. With Kaden Feagin and the rest of a deep running back room pounding behind the offensive line underneath, Illinois can certainly move the ball, if not in quite the explosive manner of Penn State. The Illini should pose an interesting challenge for a Penn State defense that hasn't missed a beat in the transition to Tom Allen from Manny Diaz. The elite Nittany Lion linebacker group should be able to stymie this Illinois passing attack, but Franklin and Bryant will really test their corners, particularly if they get them in man-to-man. Even against Kansas, a team that boasts a strong cornerback duo, these two were able to make key plays, and Allen will have to find a way to slow them down enough to keep PSU on top.
It feels unwise to pick against Penn State after their hot start, especially in Happy Valley at night. But, the Illini should be able to give them a game, at least until deeper into the second half. Unfortunately for them, Allar and the Nittany Lions should prove to be simply too much.
The Pick: Penn State, 35 Illinois, 23
(#15) Louisville Cardinals @ (#16) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Line: -6.5
O/U: 46.5
With Florida State and both UNC and NC State struggling, Louisville has to feel as though there's a path to the ACC Championship Game alongside Clemson and Miami. But the Cardinals still need to take care of business in the non-conference, and traveling to South Bend to square off with the Irish will be a difficult one. Notre Dame has taken their early season lumps, but remains the favorite as we inch towards Saturday.
Louisville hasn't exactly faced elite competition en route to their 3-0 start, but the Cardinals still deserve plenty of credit for just how effective their offense has looked. They're averaging 45.3 points per game, and veteran QB Tyler Shough has looked terrific, leading a passing attack that's averaging over 300 yards per contest themselves. It helps that wide receiver Ja'Corey Brooks is finally turning into the receiver we thought he could be when he was at Alabama, and Jeff Brohm's offensive genius has been on full display. This passing attack should be quite the battle against a Notre Dame secondary that is considered one of the nation's best. Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts are two of the most consistent defenders anywhere in the country and should relish the opportunity to show what they can do against the high-flying Cardinals. Although, the Irish secondary did take a bit of a hit this week when Jaden Mickey hit the portal, but this remains a well-coached, disciplined unit that will make Louisville work for every yard they get. I will be curious to see how Brohm sets up the passing game with the run - the Cardinals have leaned on a committee approach so far on the young season. The quartet of Isaac Brown, Duke Watson, Keyjuan Brown, and Maurice Turner should all see a healthy amount of action, and the depth should keep them fresh deeper into this game. That will be key against this Notre Dame defense, a relentless group that just never seems to tire under coordinator Al Golden.
New offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has clearly needed some time to acclimate himself with new quarterback Riley Leonard and the rest of the Irish offense. There have been some bright spots, like dropping 66 points in a demolition of Purdue, but Notre Dame seems to still be figuring things out offensively as their schedule gets tougher. Fortunately, the ground game has remained a consistent fuel for this group, with the emergence of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, plus the scrambling ability of Leonard. This is a rush offense averaging 6.7 yards per carry, with a nice blend of speed and power, posing quite the threat to this Louisville defense. The Cardinals have been strong statistically against the run so far in 2024, but this is a whole different challenge for them. The Irish are a physical team in a way that Louisville hasn't seen so far, and hasn't traditionally played well against. The best hope is to stack the box and make Leonard make plays with his arm, which certainly doesn't appear to be a bad strategy. The former Duke transfer simply has not looked comfortable throwing the ball, and the Irish have struggled to find the right complement to Beaux Collins on the outside. They'll look to set up this passing game through play-action and get Leonard comfortable with easy throws and screens but at the end of the day, it's up the veteran quarterback to get things going. His play feels like the X-factor in what will be a real test for them at home.
This is an extremely tough game to pick because we simply don't know much about Louisville at this point in the season. They've looked good, but their most impressive win came against a Georgia Tech team in a game that was tight into the fourth quarter. Despite the ups-and-downs they've gone through over the season's first month, Notre Dame is still the smarter choice at home. They should do enough to slow down this Cardinal passing game, and their ground attack the other way will make all the difference.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 27 Louisville, 21
Other Picks
(#20) Oklahoma State Cowboys @ (#23) Kansas State Wildcats -- This will be a get right opportunity for both of these teams after frustrating losses last weekend. K-State in particular looked shockingly bad in a blowout loss to BYU, but Chris Kleiman teams always respond - they should be hungry to prove themselves at home.
The Pick: Kansas State, 34 Oklahoma State, 24
Washington State Cougars @ (#25) Boise State Broncos -- Boise is on the inside track towards the Group of Five Playoff spot, but can't afford a slip-up here. Washington State is a formidable foe, but I figure their luck may run out after two close victories.
The Pick: Boise State, 35 Washington State, 30
Washington Huskies @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights -- A classic Big Ten conference game, huh? I said before the season how high I am on Rutgers, and getting Washington going across the country feels like it should give them a clear advantage. But, I actually like the Huskies to spoil the undefeated season for Rutgers, thanks to their offensive balance and a defense that's playing great.
The Pick: Washington, 27 Rutgers, 18
Upset: Arkansas Razorbacks @ (#24) Texas A&M Aggies -- I'm not under the impression Arkansas is going to go on some type of magical run that saves Sam Pittman's job, but the Razorbacks are much more explosive this year under Bobby Petrino than in the past. They have enough to go into College Station and win a hard-fought rivalry game.
The Pick: Arkansas, 34 Texas A&M, 28
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): South Alabama Jaguars (+22) @ LSU Tigers -- South Alabama has plenty of deficiencies, but this is a team that can put up points - in a hurry. Against a LSU defense that is still figuring things out, they may do just enough to cover.
The Pick: LSU, 49 South Alabama, 31
Lock of the Week: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-3) vs. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns -- Finally I'm out of the winless column on my locks, now it's time for a run. Wake Forest likely isn't going to be bowling this year, but Louisiana has plenty of issues themselves and has to travel to Winston-Salem.
The Pick: Wake Forest, 28 Louisiana, 14
No comments:
Post a Comment