College Football Playoff National Championship Prediction 2025

Emeka Ebguka, Ohio State

The first ever 12-team College Football Playoff has just two teams left standing - Ohio State and Note Dame - both of whom will look to cap off the 2024-25 college football season as National Champion. Not only will the victor forever live in college football history for surviving the 12-team field, it feels like both of these programs have something to prove on Monday night. Ryan Day and Ohio State have remained the Big Ten's juggernaut, but four straight losses to arch-rival Michigan and a number of heartbreaking postseason losses have left Buckeye fans hungering for a team that can win the big one. On the other hand, Notre Dame is searching for their first National Title since 1988. Both teams have also faced their share of adversity - Notre Dame's season looked dead after an early September loss to Northern Illinois before ripping off 13 straight wins to get to this point. Ohio State suffered the humiliating loss to Michigan, but also a one-point defeat to Oregon earlier in the regular season that left them on the outside looking in on the Big Ten Title race. Needless to say, there are countless storylines that make this the perfect farewell to this college football season in Atlanta.

Ohio State's offense was held mostly in check by Texas in their semifinal victory, but this unit should still be the best on the field Monday night when these two square off. Clearly, Chip Kelly and Ryan Day have adjusted their gameplan after the baffling showing against Michigan to conclude the regular season, as they've responded with renewed aggressiveness. Quarterback Will Howard is looking to chuck the ball all over the field, and it makes quite the difference when you have the nation's best group of receivers catching the football. Freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith has received all the press as of late for his play in the Playoff, but you can't count out veteran Emeka Egbuka or Carnell Tate Jr. In fact, it feels like Notre Dame's likely outsized focus on Smith is going to open up further opportunities for this cast of receivers, and it would not be shocking if a usually complementary piece has a huge night. The Irish must also contend with the two-headed monster of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson out of the backfield, a pairing that sets the stage for everything Ohio State likes to do on the perimeter. But, beyond just the skill positions, I'd argue the most underrated element of Ohio State's Playoff run has been their offensive line. This is a group that is not playing at 100 percent, namely with center Seth McLaughlin done for the year, but they've done a superb job against three elite defensive fronts over the course of this postseason. Notre Dame and defensive coordinator Al Golden are going to try and dial up some unique blitzes and give the Buckeyes different looks than they've seen this year. The Michigan game certainly provides somewhat of a blueprint, but this Ohio State team is playing at an entirely different level than that group in late November. I do like Notre Dame's chances to at least contain the running game, with their collection of well-rounded linemen and linebackers, but how they handle the passing attack may make all the difference. The Irish have loads of talent on the back-end, including former Buckeye Xavier Watts, but they've been streaky at times in defending the pass. The Irish have not seen a pass offense even close to this level since the USC game - a game where they surrendered 360 yards through the air and 35 points.

As compared to the Buckeyes, the Notre Dame offense is short on star-power and flash. But, they have a clear identity that they execute at an incredibly high level, a testament to not just the players, but how Marcus Freeman has built and shaped this roster. Quarterback Riley Leonard has been tremendous as a one-year rental, as the former Duke transfer has provided the Irish with the dual-threat at the position they've lacked for some time. Leonard isn't going to drop back and throw for 300 yards on any given night, but he does enough to put the Irish in position to win consistently. He's joined in the backfield by the combo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who have set the tone for this offense the entire season. Neither should be intimidated by an Ohio State defensive front that features several future NFL defenders, plus do-it-all linebacker Cody Simon. On the contrary, this feels like an opportunity where they'll elevate their respective games for this moment. They'll certainly be relied on to carry the load, but the Irish will also need someone on the perimeter to really step up. Jaden Greathouse and Jordan Faison have played well through the Playoff, but Notre Dame needs a semblance of offensive balance against this talented Buckeye defense. It feels like the Irish will have their chances through the air, if they're willing to take them. Although Ohio State's pass defense has been strong all season, spearheaded by safety Caleb Downs, their corners have been occasionally struggled. Notre Dame should be willing to take their shots in this game - their often conservative style has worked to get them to this point, but the Buckeyes are a different animal altogether. Of course, Riley Leonard will need time in the pocket for things to develop downfield, and there is reason for concern for this Irish O-Line. The Irish will be without starting left tackle Anthonie Knapp after he went down in the semifinal win. Charles Jagusah, who was slated to start prior to the season before a torn pectoral kept him out for the entire fall, looks like he may potentially have to step in. With the way Ohio State's line has played through this Playoff run, any negative impact from the loss of Knapp could flip this entire game.

These two teams are obviously deserving of being on this stage after what they've done through the 12-team College Football Playoff, but I would not expect a pretty game. Notre Dame is going to try and slow it down and force it into a low-scoring affair, which they've done to great success on the season. The thing is, Ohio State can play that way if they have to. This is an elite defense that has turned it up a notch in the Playoff so far, and they're fine playing the type of field position game the Irish want. Ohio State just has the personnel to match whatever style they need to, in a way that Notre Dame can't. They also seem like a team that is on a special journey, and this is just the final hill to climb. Motivation is never going to be an issue in a National Championship Game, but there's just a feeling you have watching Ohio State that this is the team that's going to be left standing when it's all said and done. I think the Buckeyes will get it done and win their first National Title since 2014 - which just so happened to be the first year of the four-team Playoff. 

The Pick: Ohio State, 28 Notre Dame, 20

College Football Playoff Picks 2024-25: Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl

Quinn Ewers, Texas

Orange Bowl: (7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ (6) Penn State Nittany Lions (Miami Gardens)

Line: Notre Dame -1.5

O/U: 44.5

Few programs in recent college football history have epitomized being good, but not quite good enough, quite like Notre Dame and Penn State. Both have been remarkably consistent, particularly since the mid-2010s, but neither has been able to have their true breakthrough moment. For one of these programs, that will change on Thursday night in Miami Gardens. One team will get the opportunity to move on to the National Championship Game and potentially erase their late-season demons. Will it be the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who recovered from a stunning early September defeat to Northern Illinois to get to this point? Or, will it be the Penn State Nittany Lions, a team that far too often has played third wheel to Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten, but now awaits their biggest game in years? The storylines write themselves, and the first semifinal of the 12-team College Football Playoff should be an exciting game, set to go down to the wire.

Notre Dame spent big over the offseason to bring on offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock from LSU and pair him with Duke transfer Riley Leonard at quarterback. Yet, there's nothing remarkably different with this offense than what we've come to expect from the Irish over the years. They remain a ground-and-pound team that will lean heavily on their defense and bully opponents into submission. Leonard has been rock-solid in much the same mold of an Ian Book, a steady figurehead running the offense who takes care of the football. He'll take the occasional shot down the field, but this is an overall conservative passing attack for the most part. Leonard does give the Irish an edge with his rushing ability, which has been passing at this position in the past for ND, but you do wonder how eager the Irish will be to rush him considering this will be the 15th game on their schedule - and they may just have one more game left. Alongside Leonard, Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love remain a strong duo in the backfield, with either having proven they can handle the load. Love isn't 100 percent after getting banged up in their massive Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia, but should be at a good enough place to still see a heavy workload in this one. Up front, the Irish have looked their usual ferocious selves after a shaky start to the fall, and out wide, it's also a similar story. The Irish don't exactly have a true headliner at receiver, but this is a deep group, and you always wonder if this is the game one of them has a true breakout. Beaux Collins finished as their leading receiver, but you have to feel like Jaden Greathouse and Jordan Faison are the real threats this Penn State defense has to be concerned with. Consistency has been a problem with both, but they have the game-breaking speed to cause real damage if they do get some space. Even so, I don't suspect the Irish will stray too far from their gameplan. They'll look to turn this into a field position game, especially against an aggressive Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions potentially being without star edge rusher Abdul Carter would certainly reduce much of the pressure on this Irish defense, but this is still going to be a methodical approach on the big stage.

Much like Notre Dame, the Nittany Lions brought on a new play-caller over the offseason, and it has been instrumental in them being one of the four teams still alive in the National Championship hunt. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki hasn't completely revamped this side of the ball, but he's done a superb job maximizing Penn State's strengths and zoning in on key mismatches. This still remains an offense that will lean on their ground game to fuel them, with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen being one of the nation's top combos, but QB Drew Allar has also made significant strides in his junior season. Penn State has been limited in that they don't have a true alpha at the receiver position, but they've made do with their short and intermediate stuff. Of course, it helps when they have the John Mackey Award winner at tight end in Tyler Warren, who will line up just about anywhere and should be a key player to hone in on for coordinator Al Golden. Warren's mere presence, and ability to move around in unique formations constantly keeps defenses on their toes, and often opens up opportunities for the other weapons on this roster. He'll obviously get the ball no matter what, but I am curious to see how the rest of this Nittany Lion receiver corps plays against an Irish secondary that is among the best in the nation. However, that's not to say Notre Dame has looked indestructible on the back-end - they were gashed by USC down the stretch and if not for several pivotal drops by Georgia receivers, likely would have given up serious yardage to the Bulldogs. You get the feeling Penn State is going to get one or two major opportunities through the air in this game, and if they're able to capitalize in a way Georgia was not, it could certainly swing this game in their direction.

The similarities between these two run deep. It's not just two historically great teams that are looking to climb the mountaintop once again for the first time since the 1980s, but they also play a similar brand of football. They want to establish the run and play ball control offensively, rely on a physical defense, and do just enough to come out victorious. There's nothing particularly pretty about either team, but there's no reason to doubt their effectiveness - they're both sitting one win away from a National Championship Game after all. It feels like this is going to a nail-biter where one or two big plays is going to make all the difference, a true coin flip. Coaching may make all the difference in a game like this, and I've been incredibly impressed by what Marcus Freeman has been able to do in important, close games throughout his short Notre Dame tenure. Despite his relative lack of experience compared to James Franklin, I simply trust him more. And I trust him to bring the Irish to their first National Championship Game in over a decade on Thursday night.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 24 Penn State, 21

College Football Playoff Picks 2024-25: Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl

Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

Fiesta Bowl: (6) Penn State Nittany Lions @ (3) Boise State Broncos (Glendale)

Line: Penn State -11.5

O/U: 54.5

For much of the BCS era, Boise State was the lovable underdog, crashing a system designed for the sport's heavyweights. As we've transitioned to the 12-team CFB Playoff era, they're in a slightly different position, operating as the higher seed and "home" team in this year's Fiesta Bowl. In the way of the Broncos this time around are the Penn State Nittany Lions, fresh off a dominant showing in their first round win over SMU. With entry into the Playoff semifinals on the line and fun matchups all across the board in this game, it should be a fun way to kick off the quarterfinals of the first 12-team Playoff.

Needless to say, Boise State's offense revolves around superstar tailback Ashton Jeanty, in the midst of one of the greatest running back seasons in college football history. Jeanty has rushed for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns, and it certainly hasn't been simply racking up huge stats against meager competition. In games against Boise State's two toughest opponents on the season, Oregon and UNLV, Jeanty rushed for 192, 128, and 209 (played UNLV twice). He should relish this opportunity against a strong Penn State defense, a program that has long been known as a factory of elite linebacker play. This Nittany Lion defense is particularly strong up front - Abdul Carter sets the edge as a relentless pass rusher after transitioning from linebacker, and the trio of Kobe King, Tony Rojas, and Dom DeLuca plays all over the field, sideline-to-sideline. Jeanty is still a candidate to take a big run or two to the house, as he often does, but he'll have to work for every yard in a way he hasn't often this season. The Nittany Lions will certainly do everything they can to force the Broncos to use their passing game in a way they simply haven't for much of the season in an effort to get them out of their rhythm. Maddux Madsen has been efficient under center and taken care of the football, doing just enough to put Boise in position to win games with Jeanty leading the way. But, is he ready for this type of stage against a blitz-heavy Penn State defense? Former Indiana transfer Cam Camper on the perimeter knows Penn State well, and tight end Matt Lauter and Latrell Caples will also be featured heavily. How effective they are against a Nittany Lion secondary that is still occasionally prone to the big play will be a fascinating watch.

The Penn State offense may not have an Ashton Jeanty, but this is a balanced group that enters the game averaging over 35 points per contest. You'll see play-caller Andy Kotelnicki mix things up quite a bit with this group, including using shifts and unique formations to keep the defense honest. Quarterback Drew Allar is the figurehead, and he's had an impressive junior season, but the Nittany Lions also lean heavily on the running back duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Allen is more of the short yardage specialist, while it's Singleton that can break open games with his breakaway speed. No matter who is on the field, they'll put pressure on a Boise defense that hasn't really seen a two-headed monster in the backfield quite like this, even against their toughest opponents. The Bronco defense will also have to contend with tight end Tyler Warren, one of the most interesting players in college football. Warren will line up truly everywhere, even taking some snaps out of the backfield. The Broncos must be creative in how they cover him, without leaving themselves too exposed to the other weapons Penn State can throw at them. You also get the feeling Andy Kotelnicki may have further tricks up his sleeve for this type of big stage. Trick plays, gadget plays, another different formation - he's going to keep Boise constantly guessing for the entire sixty minutes. 

In their fourth Fiesta Bowl, Boise State will rock their usual uniform combination - a blue, white, orange look that they are currently 3-0 in. Certainly the energy and "vibes" will be there for the Broncos, but this is an incredibly tough matchup for them. Penn State is an exceptionally balanced and well-rounded football team, and they are focused in after their first round dominance. I figure they do just enough to contain Jeanty and they pound the rock the other way, where they hold a superior edge in the trenches. I don't suspect a super pretty football game, but I figure the Nittany Lions will come out victorious.

The Pick: Penn State, 30 Boise State, 17

College Football Playoff Picks 2024-25: Texas-Clemson, Ohio State-Tennessee

Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State

College Football Playoff First Round: (12) Clemson Tigers @ (5) Texas Longhorns

Line: Texas -12

O/U: 51.5

After a three-year hiatus, the Clemson Tigers are returning to the College Football Playoff. Their reward? The fifth-seeded Texas Longhorns, who were battling for a potential top overall seed in the SEC Championship Game before ultimately coming up short against Georgia. It will be an uphill battle for Dabo Swinney and the Tigers as they travel to Austin as two touchdown underdogs, but also an opportunity to prove they still belong in the conversation of truly elite teams on a national level.

Clemson's three-point effort in the season-opening loss to Georgia was quite the concerning start for a program that had suffered through a startling amount of offensive woes the year prior, their worst season in a decade-and-a-half. But since that game, the Tiger offense has flipped a switch, utilizing a balanced attack to average 37.4 PPG and serve as the catalyst for the eventual ACC Champion. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has been the figurehead, a guy who had a frustrating first season as starter in 2023, but has shown tremendous growth this fall. Klubnik has always had the arm talent, but he's played with significantly more confidence this season and has been willing to air it out in a way we simply didn't see previously. This still isn't an aerial attack at the level of the prime Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence years, but the Tigers can truly stretch the field vertically. It has certainly helped Klubnik that the receiver corps has also seen major improvements, with Antonio Williams solidifying himself as a solid No. 1 and the young guys, T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr., seemingly getting better each and every week. I think the momentum the Clemson passing game will take into this one has a real chance to continue. Texas has been good enough on the back-end to be successful, but they thrive off turnovers. If Klubnik and company can take care of the football, which they've done for much of the year, they have a real chance to rack up some major yardage through the air. Where the Texas defense does hold an advantage, however, is up front, where they feature a host of future NFL defensive linemen and a budding superstar in linebacker Anthony Hill. Vernon Broughton is the big name for the Longhorn defensive line on the interior, but this is a group that is deep and relentless, going up against a Clemson O-Line that hasn't seen athletes like this since the Georgia game. These Tiger blockers are experienced, but I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't a bit of shell-shock initially with what Texas throws at them. And if Clemson isn't able to recover and tailback Phil Mafah is held in check, the Tigers may have to press offensively in a way they haven't had to for much of the season. If that indeed happens, how they handle that adversity will tell us a lot about this football team - when they fell behind to UGA and Louisville early, they simply were not able to recover.

The Longhorns faced their fair share of obstacles offensively on the season, albeit in a different way than Clemson. Injuries have ended up being an unfortunate theme of the fall for Texas, beginning in fall camp with a season-ending injury to C.J. Baxter, who was primed for a huge year as the feature back. Since then, the Longhorns have watched as QB Quinn Ewers has faced a myriad of health problems, and now enter the CFB Playoff with their top target, Isaiah Bond, and top O-Linemen, Kelvin Banks Jr., both banged up. It sounds like Banks is in line to return to action after missing the SEC Championship Game, but Bond's status is a little bit more up in the air as we stand at the time of publishing. Losing a player like Bond would be huge for this Longhorn offense - he's not just their most productive wide receiver, his mere presence commands the defense's attention, and opens up opportunities elsewhere. There are other weapons Ewers can take advantage of, including Matthew Golden and rock-solid tight end Gunnar Helm Jr., but it will be interesting to see how this passing game operates in this one. Fortunately, the ground game has really improved since the start of the season, with sophomore Quintrevion Wisner really emerging as a lead back. He should be eager to get back on the field after being held in check by Georgia, and able to give this strong Clemson defensive front a challenge. In fact, it's the battle between this Clemson front seven and Texas O-Line that I may be the most excited about. The Tigers remain an NFL Draft factory with what they do in their front seven, while Steve Sarkisian's buildup of the Longhorn offensive line has been the secret sauce to their recent success. Even in a game like this, with so much talent on the field, I suspect whoever maintains the edge in the trenches will come out victorious.

Heading into this Playoff, the Longhorns were my National Title pick. And they still are - despite the injury questions that still seem to be hanging over them. But, this is a tough first round game, even if this Clemson team still has their flaws. They still have NFL athletes on both sides of the ball that should be able to challenge the 'Horns, and Klubnik is enough of a weapon himself to test this Texas secondary. I still think Texas finds a way to outlast them in Austin, but I think this could be a tight one until the very end.

The Pick: Texas, 31 Clemson, 28

College Football Playoff Picks 2024-25: Notre Dame-Indiana, SMU-Penn State

Drew Allar, Penn State

College Football Playoff First Round: (10) Indiana Hoosiers @ (7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Line: Notre Dame -7.5

O/U: 51.5

The state of Indiana has always been known for their basketball, but the success of the Indiana Hoosiers this fall now sets up an exciting in-state matchup between the state's flagship universities - on the gridiron. It really is the type of first round matchup the College Football Playoff was going for in its expansion to 12 teams, pitting the traditional power (Notre Dame) against the upstart Hoosiers, a program with almost no football history to speak of. Add to that the fact the programs are separated by just 200 miles and there's a real chance of snow in the forecast, this game has all the makings of a classic in South Bend.

As shocking as Notre Dame's loss to Northern Illinois was in early September, the Irish deserve all the credit in the world for their response over these last three months. They've won ten straight games, including three over ranked foes, and absolutely pummeled most of their competition en route to the 11-1 regular season finish. They've done so with an extremely balanced scheme and a well-coached, smothering defense that has allowed the Irish to beat opponents in any way they please. Quarterback Riley Leonard, who transferred over from Duke for a one-season run with the Irish, has looked in complete command after a shaky start. He hasn't been asked to air it out, but instead lead a methodical, quick attack passing game that relies heavily on timing. The passing game has been incredibly balanced - six different Notre Dame pass-catchers have recorded 190 or more receiving yards, but only one, Beaux Collins, is over the 400 yard mark. I'll be curious to see whether Notre Dame choses to continue that balance into the Playoffs. The knock on this program throughout much of the Brian Kelly years were that their lack of explosive playmakers on the outside restricted them from going head-to-head against the true elites of the sport. Guys like Collins and Jaden Greathouse are good enough to give opposing defenses on the perimeter, but how aggressive offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock chooses to be will tell us whether that issue has persisted into big games in the Marcus Freeman era. Either way, the Irish should still lean heavily on their ground game, especially considering this matchup. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have been a superb 1-2 punch out of the backfield, and are operating behind an offensive line that has improved drastically since Week One of the season. This group seems like they'll be able to neutralize Mikail Kamara and the rest of a physical Hoosier defensive front, pounding the rock and limiting Indiana's offensive possessions. Notre Dame has no problem making this is a low-scoring, ugly type of game. That still is their comfort zone and considering the potential weather, it certainly feels like the right strategy.

Curt Cignetti instantly set off fireworks his brash confidence upon taking the Indiana job, but there's no denying what a superb job he has done in Year One in Bloomington. Sure, the Hoosiers played a favorable schedule, but they've looked every bit like one of the Top 12 teams in the country, one year removed from a nine-loss season under Tom Allen. The team is well-coached, disciplined, and prepared each and every week, and they should relish the opportunity to show what they can do against an in-state rival. The Irish defense will be quite the test for them with what Al Golden can draw up as offensive coordinator. However, quarterback Kurtis Rourke and the rest of these Hoosiers have not been intimidated by any opponent all season, and they should be ready to go for this one. Rourke in particular has to be feeling good after seeing what the Irish defense looked like in their final game of the regular season against USC. Although they still came out victorious, Notre Dame was regularly burned by Lincoln Riley and an aggressive Trojan passing game, a really concerning look for a group that has looked so good for much of the year. Of course, Lincoln Riley is quite the offensive genius, but Notre Dame has clearly missed star cornerback Benjamin Morrison, who is out for the season. Look for the Hoosiers to take their shots down the field, especially early on, to feel out what adjustments the Irish made over the last couple weeks. Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper aren't just Indiana's top two receivers, they're both deep threats that have proven they can break open games. Cooper is averaging over 21 yards per catch, and has to be a player to key in on for Golden and the rest of this Notre Dame defense. The Hoosiers are able to feature a rushing attack that is quite the complement to what they do throwing the football, but this will be a tough matchup for them. Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton are more than capable, but the Irish are as good of a front seven as you'll see in college football. They're not quite as athletic up front as they've been in the past, but between Jack Kiser, Drayk Bowen, and this ferocious defensive line, they're going to make Indiana work for every inch.

The first game of the 12-team College Football Playoff era should be a competitive one, but I'm not sure it's going to be the prettiest, highest-scoring game of the first round. Considering how these two will look to play and the weather element, I get the sense this is going to be a little bit of an ugly, grinding type of football game. Both of these teams are capable of winning that type of game, but I just trust the Irish a bit more in their identity and what they know they can do. The Hoosiers will not be an easy out, but ND wins the battle of Indiana this time around.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 27 Indiana, 17