Sunday, January 19, 2025

College Football Playoff National Championship Prediction 2025

Emeka Ebguka, Ohio State

The first ever 12-team College Football Playoff has just two teams left standing - Ohio State and Note Dame - both of whom will look to cap off the 2024-25 college football season as National Champion. Not only will the victor forever live in college football history for surviving the 12-team field, it feels like both of these programs have something to prove on Monday night. Ryan Day and Ohio State have remained the Big Ten's juggernaut, but four straight losses to arch-rival Michigan and a number of heartbreaking postseason losses have left Buckeye fans hungering for a team that can win the big one. On the other hand, Notre Dame is searching for their first National Title since 1988. Both teams have also faced their share of adversity - Notre Dame's season looked dead after an early September loss to Northern Illinois before ripping off 13 straight wins to get to this point. Ohio State suffered the humiliating loss to Michigan, but also a one-point defeat to Oregon earlier in the regular season that left them on the outside looking in on the Big Ten Title race. Needless to say, there are countless storylines that make this the perfect farewell to this college football season in Atlanta.

Ohio State's offense was held mostly in check by Texas in their semifinal victory, but this unit should still be the best on the field Monday night when these two square off. Clearly, Chip Kelly and Ryan Day have adjusted their gameplan after the baffling showing against Michigan to conclude the regular season, as they've responded with renewed aggressiveness. Quarterback Will Howard is looking to chuck the ball all over the field, and it makes quite the difference when you have the nation's best group of receivers catching the football. Freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith has received all the press as of late for his play in the Playoff, but you can't count out veteran Emeka Egbuka or Carnell Tate Jr. In fact, it feels like Notre Dame's likely outsized focus on Smith is going to open up further opportunities for this cast of receivers, and it would not be shocking if a usually complementary piece has a huge night. The Irish must also contend with the two-headed monster of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson out of the backfield, a pairing that sets the stage for everything Ohio State likes to do on the perimeter. But, beyond just the skill positions, I'd argue the most underrated element of Ohio State's Playoff run has been their offensive line. This is a group that is not playing at 100 percent, namely with center Seth McLaughlin done for the year, but they've done a superb job against three elite defensive fronts over the course of this postseason. Notre Dame and defensive coordinator Al Golden are going to try and dial up some unique blitzes and give the Buckeyes different looks than they've seen this year. The Michigan game certainly provides somewhat of a blueprint, but this Ohio State team is playing at an entirely different level than that group in late November. I do like Notre Dame's chances to at least contain the running game, with their collection of well-rounded linemen and linebackers, but how they handle the passing attack may make all the difference. The Irish have loads of talent on the back-end, including former Buckeye Xavier Watts, but they've been streaky at times in defending the pass. The Irish have not seen a pass offense even close to this level since the USC game - a game where they surrendered 360 yards through the air and 35 points.

As compared to the Buckeyes, the Notre Dame offense is short on star-power and flash. But, they have a clear identity that they execute at an incredibly high level, a testament to not just the players, but how Marcus Freeman has built and shaped this roster. Quarterback Riley Leonard has been tremendous as a one-year rental, as the former Duke transfer has provided the Irish with the dual-threat at the position they've lacked for some time. Leonard isn't going to drop back and throw for 300 yards on any given night, but he does enough to put the Irish in position to win consistently. He's joined in the backfield by the combo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who have set the tone for this offense the entire season. Neither should be intimidated by an Ohio State defensive front that features several future NFL defenders, plus do-it-all linebacker Cody Simon. On the contrary, this feels like an opportunity where they'll elevate their respective games for this moment. They'll certainly be relied on to carry the load, but the Irish will also need someone on the perimeter to really step up. Jaden Greathouse and Jordan Faison have played well through the Playoff, but Notre Dame needs a semblance of offensive balance against this talented Buckeye defense. It feels like the Irish will have their chances through the air, if they're willing to take them. Although Ohio State's pass defense has been strong all season, spearheaded by safety Caleb Downs, their corners have been occasionally struggled. Notre Dame should be willing to take their shots in this game - their often conservative style has worked to get them to this point, but the Buckeyes are a different animal altogether. Of course, Riley Leonard will need time in the pocket for things to develop downfield, and there is reason for concern for this Irish O-Line. The Irish will be without starting left tackle Anthonie Knapp after he went down in the semifinal win. Charles Jagusah, who was slated to start prior to the season before a torn pectoral kept him out for the entire fall, looks like he may potentially have to step in. With the way Ohio State's line has played through this Playoff run, any negative impact from the loss of Knapp could flip this entire game.

These two teams are obviously deserving of being on this stage after what they've done through the 12-team College Football Playoff, but I would not expect a pretty game. Notre Dame is going to try and slow it down and force it into a low-scoring affair, which they've done to great success on the season. The thing is, Ohio State can play that way if they have to. This is an elite defense that has turned it up a notch in the Playoff so far, and they're fine playing the type of field position game the Irish want. Ohio State just has the personnel to match whatever style they need to, in a way that Notre Dame can't. They also seem like a team that is on a special journey, and this is just the final hill to climb. Motivation is never going to be an issue in a National Championship Game, but there's just a feeling you have watching Ohio State that this is the team that's going to be left standing when it's all said and done. I think the Buckeyes will get it done and win their first National Title since 2014 - which just so happened to be the first year of the four-team Playoff. 

The Pick: Ohio State, 28 Notre Dame, 20

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