2026 College Football Picks: Week Onee

Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

📊 THE RECORD

🏆 PICKS 0–0 | ⚡ UPSETS 0–0 | 🐕 SUPERDOGS 0–0 | 🔒 LOCKS 0–0

Clemson Tigers vs. (11) LSU Tigers 

📍 Baton Rouge

🏈 LSU -10 | O/U 50.5

The 2019 National Championship Game feels like a lifetime ago, especially for these two respective programs. At that point, LSU was putting the finishing touches on an all-time season. Clemson had established themselves as one of the sport's most consistent programs, playing in their fourth National Championship in five years. Now, both collide in this 2026 season opener looking vastly different, and out to prove themselves in different ways. LSU now has Lane Kiffin on the sidelines and were one of the most aggressive teams in the nation in the transfer portal. Clemson has slipped significantly under Dabo Swinney, but is out to prove last season's disappointing 7-6 finish was merely an aberration. One team will come out Saturday, while the other will find themselves under pressure as they look towards the remainder of the fall.

There's a whole lot of new faces for Lane and the Bayou Bengals as they begin this new era, and it starts at quarterback. Sam Leavitt was brought on from Arizona State to jolt an offense that was downright ugly last year. He'll have a new-look offensive line, bolstered by stud tackle Jordan Seaton, and some fresh weapons to work with at the skill position. How he looks in the opener could set the tenor for the rest of LSU's season. Leavitt missed a big chunk of last year with injury, and he needs to be back to 100 percent if this team is to reach their lofty ceiling. Yet, I'm perhaps more curious about this ground game, which features holdovers Caden Durham and Harlem Berry. Every great Lane Kiffin-coached team has always featured an elite ground game that opens up everything they do through the air. For an offense that struggled to run the ball throughout the entire Brian Kelly era, finding rhythm here would be a huge testament to the quick turnaround Lane appears capable of. You do get the sense Lane is going to want to test what Clemson's athletes look like up front. If he feels he has the advantage, he is going to be just fine sitting back and running the ball all game long. Clemson has some quality pieces, namely defensive end Will Heldt and linebacker Sammy Brown, but this is not the same Tiger front seven we came to know during their height in the 2010s. It feels like LSU is going to hold the edge and be the more physical team, unless Tom Allen and this Clemson defensive staff can come up with some creative blitzes and looks to get into the backfield. Clemson feels like the team that is going to have to take chances, particularly on the road, and that has never been the strength of Dabo or this coaching staff. Their golden years were about their advantage in talent, player development, and preparation. I'm curious to see if they can devise a gameplan to overcome the talent gap here.

It's a different feel to the Clemson offense, too, after they overhauled this unit following the frustrating 2025 campaign. Gone is Garrett Riley, replaced with a familiar name: Chad Morris, who served as Clemson offensive coordinator from 2011-14. Morris will lean on longtime backup Christopher Vizzina at quarterback and a cast of characters that has potential, but has not fully proven itself. Vizzina's familiarity with the program is an advantage not often enjoyed in modern college ball, but he has had to learn Morris' system this offseason. He has talented receivers to throw to in Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore, but can one of them emerge as the true alpha? In the backfield, sophomore Gideon Davidson had some moments in 2025, but remains a bit of an unproven commodity. Needless to say, this Clemson offense has a lot of questions they need to answer, and an opener in Tiger Stadium in primetime is not a super fun way to start. Fortunately, LSU's defense took their own lumps in 2025, although the hope is that the work they did in the portal will lead to better things for coordinator Blake Baker and company. With the LSU defense, it never quite felt like talent was the problem, but coaching and effort just were not always there in the Kelly years. This defense does have some nice pieces, especially in the back seven, and I would not be shocked if they exceed expectations for the opener. Having Baker on staff has been huge in establishing some continuity with all the change this offseason and he should have them ready.

I'm not as down on Clemson as others seem to be, but that's more of a result of the ACC being so underwhelming rather than a belief in some miraculous 2026 turnaround. They still have enough talent to keep this tight into the second half, but I do think the edge LSU has down the depth chart will begin to show eventually. 

The Pick: LSU, 34 Clemson, 17

(24) Louisville Cardinals vs. (9) Ole Miss Rebels

📍 Nashville

🏈 Ole Miss -7 | O/U 55.5

As strange as it sounds, the battle between Louisville and Ole Miss on Sunday night represents the only ranked game of Week One of the 2026 college football season. That alone provides plenty of reason to tune in, but there also will likely be College Football Playoff implications on the line. The Cardinals may end up being the greatest threat to Miami inside the ACC, while Ole Miss has little margin for error in the ever-competitive SEC.

The offseason was full of legal drama for Trinidad Chambliss in his effort to earn one more season of college football, but his return is a game-changer for the Rebels. His dual threat ability can break a game open in an instant, and he seems to elevate his play in the biggest moments. Kewan Lacy is the star running back next to him in the backfield and there are plenty of weapons on the outside, namely Deuce Alexander. There is turnover on the coaching staff given the departure of Lane Kiffin and several key assistants, but you get the feeling the new staff is not going to look to change the formula in a significant way. John David Baker comes in as offensive coordinator after a two-year stint at East Carolina, but he'll have to look the wide-open, up-tempo style of play that has defined this Rebels team. Starting off against Louisville should be a positive thing for Ole Miss as all the pieces get used to each other. Jeff Brohm has worked hard to upgrade this side of the ball since he took over at his alma mater, and they've invested ample money in the portal on defense. However, this is a group that is also undergoing significant turnover both on the coaching staff and personnel-wise. If the Rebels can contain defensive end Clev Lubin, they should be able to get their playmakers in space and see what they can do.

Depending on the success of the Louisville defense, this matchup could have serious shootout potential. We know Jeff Brohm offenses can score, but there are questions to consider here, too. Ohio State transfer Lincoln Keinholz will be the starting quarterback, a former blue-chip recruit who never quite got the opportunity to show what he could do with the Buckeyes. You have to trust Brohm’s track record at the position, but this is the firs career start for Keinholz. He will be playing in an NFL stadium against a Rebel defense with several future NFL defenders across the front seven. One could assume Louisville is going to look to establish the ground game with a talent like Isaac Brown in the backfield, but the veteran has been banged up most of the offseason and may not be at full tilt. The expectation is that Brown is going to see a heavy dosage of snaps, but this is certainly not an ideal matchup to begin the campaign. This Ole Miss linebacker corps, led by Suntarine Perkins, is athletic, fast, and reckless. They’re going to be tuned up for the opportunity, and I suspect we see some stacked boxes early on from Pete Golding and this Ole Miss coaching staff. They’ll want to test out and see what Keinholz has to offer, with the possibility for adjustments at halftime.

 

Early-season neutral site games are always notoriously tough to predict. Brohm has built up this Louisville program into one that can legitimately challenge an SEC team like the Rebels, but there are just too many question marks early on in the fall. Perhaps Keinholz looks like a seasoned vet, Brown is ready to go, and the defense impresses. But, the more likely scenario is that the Cardinals come out of the gate slow and struggle with an Ole Miss that does hold an edge in continuity, even with the Lane Kiffin drama from the end of last season.

The Pick: Ole Miss, 38 Louisville, 27

Wisconsin Badgers vs. (4) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

📍 Green Bay, WI

🏈 Notre Dame -20.5 | O/U 47.5

 

For the first time in a decade, Lambeau Field will play host to an FBS football game, as the hometown Wisconsin Badgers welcome the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to town. The Badgers are hopeful for a repeat of last time they played host to a team with National Title aspirations in Lambeau, shocking the LSU Tigers. Meanwhile, the Irish are hoping to avoid a potential early hiccup and build the foundation they need for a College Football Playoff run.

 

After last season’s 4-8 debacle, Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell made sweeping changes throughout his offense, which expects to look much different this year. Colton Joseph, a transfer from Old Dominion, has been handed the keys to the offense and will be surrounded by a host of new weapons at the skill positions. Injuries have defined the quarterback position for Wisconsin in recent years, so Joseph staying upright will be their chief priority. If he can, the Badgers have a dual threat who isn’t afraid to take his shots down the field, something that has been sorely missing throughout the Fickell years. Yet with that comes the possibility for turnovers, so Wisconsin will need him to play smart against an opportunistic Notre Dame secondary that includes a Jim Thorpe frontrunner, Leonard Moore. It’s not clear who the Irish will have to key in on from a receiver perspective – perhaps Malachi Coleman, now on his third Big Ten school? Perhaps another player that finished the fall strong and can find some early rhythm with Joseph? Funnily enough, my greater question for Wisconsin entering this game is along the lines of scrimmage, which has for so long been the identity of the program. The offensive line has not been at Wisconsin levels for several years now, and this unit is seriously banged up entering this game. Fickell’s commentary in the press leadup to this game don’t inspire confidence that this unit is going to be at full strength against one of the best defensive fronts they’ll see on their schedule. If the Badgers are unable to get anything going on the ground, they will need absolute magic from Joseph to have any shot at keeping pace.

 

This Notre Dame offense is not the same group that become known for some conservative, methodical offenses under Brian Kelly. This Irish team can really chuck the ball around, behind the big arm of C.J. Carr, who impressed as a first season starter in 2025. Even more will be expected from Carr now this season, given Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price both went off to the NFL and found themselves as first round selections. He'll need a true No. 1 receiver to emerge among the likes of Jordan Faison or Jaden Greathouse, or perhaps even one of the former Ohio State transfers. But, Carr is the most purely talented quarterback Notre Dame has had in a very long time, probably since Brady Quinn was in South Bend. We will see how the Irish handle backfield duties - Aneyas Williams is expected to be the feature option, but this could be a committee approach early on. The Notre Dame O-Line will also have to be up for the battle, as this Badger front has improved in a major way. Linebackers Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano are the type of defenders that once patrolled the middle for Wisconsin in their heyday, and the physicality they're able to bring so early on in the year would be crucial in any upset bid.

Wisconsin certainly has a chance to turn this into a rock fight and competitive deep into the second half, but Notre Dame is by far and away the better team. They're balanced on both sides of the ball, have continuity in the most important spots, and hold a clear edge on the sidelines. I actually don't think this will be a blowout, but the Irish should still leave Green Bay with a comfortable enough win to feel good about their fortunes the rest of the way.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 24 Wisconsin, 14

Other Picks

Colorado Buffaloes @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -- This is probably the best game of the Thursday slate. The Buffaloes need to get back on track after a rough 2025, while Georgia Tech will look a lot different without Haynes King under center. The Buffs play their best ball early in the year, but this will be a difficult test going into Atlanta.

The Pick: Georgia Tech, 33 Colorado, 28

(#19) SMU Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles -- These Labor Day night games have a tendency to get a bit weird, and Florida State gets the Mustangs in Tallahassee. Yet, I just don't feel confident about anything about this FSU team at this point, and Kevin Jennings could pour it on against this thin secondary.

The Pick: SMU, 35 Florida State, 20

Baylor Bears vs. Auburn Tigers -- It feels like forever ago Auburn came out swinging in last year's opener and downed Baylor with ease behind Jackson Arnold's legs. This team has a whole lot of new, but Baylor's defensive questions make the Tigers a safer bet.

The Pick: Auburn, 28 Baylor, 24

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Northern Illinois Huskies (+32) @ Iowa Hawkeyes -- No part of me envisions Northern Illinois as a Mountain West (yes, that's right) contender, but we don't have any idea who Iowa's starting quarterback is. The Hawkeyes should cruise, but this is a large line to cover.

The Pick: Iowa, 31 Northern Illinois, 7

Double Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Eastern Illinois Panthers (+42.5) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers --- This is not a pick against the Gophers, but everyone knows P.J. Fleck teams tend to start off the opener a bit slow out of the gate. I expect it to be a low-scoring affair deep into the second half, with Minnesota leaning on their usual ground-and-pound style.

The Pick: Minnesota, 45 Eastern Illinois, 10

Lock of the Week: Michigan State Spartans (-10) vs. Toledo Rockets -- A tough matchup to begin the Pat Fitzgerald era here in East Lansing, as Toledo has always been a tough out in the MAC. But, this particular Rockets team is embracing nearly an entire new coaching staff, and significant attrition on both sides of the ball. Between back Cam Edwards and QB Alessio Milivojevic, the Spartans should have enough to cover this spread.

The Pick: Michigan State, 30 Toledo, 14