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| Quinn Ewers, Texas |
Orange Bowl: (7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ (6) Penn State Nittany Lions (Miami Gardens)
Line: Notre Dame -1.5
O/U: 44.5
Few programs in recent college football history have epitomized being good, but not quite good enough, quite like Notre Dame and Penn State. Both have been remarkably consistent, particularly since the mid-2010s, but neither has been able to have their true breakthrough moment. For one of these programs, that will change on Thursday night in Miami Gardens. One team will get the opportunity to move on to the National Championship Game and potentially erase their late-season demons. Will it be the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who recovered from a stunning early September defeat to Northern Illinois to get to this point? Or, will it be the Penn State Nittany Lions, a team that far too often has played third wheel to Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten, but now awaits their biggest game in years? The storylines write themselves, and the first semifinal of the 12-team College Football Playoff should be an exciting game, set to go down to the wire.
Notre Dame spent big over the offseason to bring on offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock from LSU and pair him with Duke transfer Riley Leonard at quarterback. Yet, there's nothing remarkably different with this offense than what we've come to expect from the Irish over the years. They remain a ground-and-pound team that will lean heavily on their defense and bully opponents into submission. Leonard has been rock-solid in much the same mold of an Ian Book, a steady figurehead running the offense who takes care of the football. He'll take the occasional shot down the field, but this is an overall conservative passing attack for the most part. Leonard does give the Irish an edge with his rushing ability, which has been passing at this position in the past for ND, but you do wonder how eager the Irish will be to rush him considering this will be the 15th game on their schedule - and they may just have one more game left. Alongside Leonard, Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love remain a strong duo in the backfield, with either having proven they can handle the load. Love isn't 100 percent after getting banged up in their massive Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia, but should be at a good enough place to still see a heavy workload in this one. Up front, the Irish have looked their usual ferocious selves after a shaky start to the fall, and out wide, it's also a similar story. The Irish don't exactly have a true headliner at receiver, but this is a deep group, and you always wonder if this is the game one of them has a true breakout. Beaux Collins finished as their leading receiver, but you have to feel like Jaden Greathouse and Jordan Faison are the real threats this Penn State defense has to be concerned with. Consistency has been a problem with both, but they have the game-breaking speed to cause real damage if they do get some space. Even so, I don't suspect the Irish will stray too far from their gameplan. They'll look to turn this into a field position game, especially against an aggressive Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions potentially being without star edge rusher Abdul Carter would certainly reduce much of the pressure on this Irish defense, but this is still going to be a methodical approach on the big stage.
Much like Notre Dame, the Nittany Lions brought on a new play-caller over the offseason, and it has been instrumental in them being one of the four teams still alive in the National Championship hunt. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki hasn't completely revamped this side of the ball, but he's done a superb job maximizing Penn State's strengths and zoning in on key mismatches. This still remains an offense that will lean on their ground game to fuel them, with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen being one of the nation's top combos, but QB Drew Allar has also made significant strides in his junior season. Penn State has been limited in that they don't have a true alpha at the receiver position, but they've made do with their short and intermediate stuff. Of course, it helps when they have the John Mackey Award winner at tight end in Tyler Warren, who will line up just about anywhere and should be a key player to hone in on for coordinator Al Golden. Warren's mere presence, and ability to move around in unique formations constantly keeps defenses on their toes, and often opens up opportunities for the other weapons on this roster. He'll obviously get the ball no matter what, but I am curious to see how the rest of this Nittany Lion receiver corps plays against an Irish secondary that is among the best in the nation. However, that's not to say Notre Dame has looked indestructible on the back-end - they were gashed by USC down the stretch and if not for several pivotal drops by Georgia receivers, likely would have given up serious yardage to the Bulldogs. You get the feeling Penn State is going to get one or two major opportunities through the air in this game, and if they're able to capitalize in a way Georgia was not, it could certainly swing this game in their direction.
The similarities between these two run deep. It's not just two historically great teams that are looking to climb the mountaintop once again for the first time since the 1980s, but they also play a similar brand of football. They want to establish the run and play ball control offensively, rely on a physical defense, and do just enough to come out victorious. There's nothing particularly pretty about either team, but there's no reason to doubt their effectiveness - they're both sitting one win away from a National Championship Game after all. It feels like this is going to a nail-biter where one or two big plays is going to make all the difference, a true coin flip. Coaching may make all the difference in a game like this, and I've been incredibly impressed by what Marcus Freeman has been able to do in important, close games throughout his short Notre Dame tenure. Despite his relative lack of experience compared to James Franklin, I simply trust him more. And I trust him to bring the Irish to their first National Championship Game in over a decade on Thursday night.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 24 Penn State, 21
Cotton Bowl Classic: (8) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (5) Texas Longhorns (Arlington)
Line: Ohio State -5.5
O/U: 53.5
In the span of a month, Ohio State has gone from the laughingstock of college football after a humiliating loss to Michigan to the betting favorite to take home the National Title. That's what happens when you go and blow out not just Tennessee in the first round of the College Football Playoff, but an undefeated Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Standing in their way now is the five seed Texas, who escaped in a thrilling win over Arizona State a week ago. It's the first meeting between the two storied programs since the 2008 Fiesta Bowl, and a game with significantly higher stakes, in a game that almost feels like the de-facto National Championship.
When it's playing on its "A" game, as it has through the first two games of this Playoff, there's no offense in the country that can keep up with Ohio State over four quarters. No team has anything close to what the Buckeyes can throw at you at receiver. Jeremiah Smith, the freshman phenom, has been unstoppable down the stretch and looks to be the best player on the field in this matchup full of future NFL players. Emeka Ebguka is the savvy veteran who looks the part as a crisp route runner with ultra-reliable hands. And then there's Carnell Tate, who often is overshadowed by the rest of this Ohio State offense, but who can break open games just as easily. Needless to say, it's an embarrassment of riches for quarterback Will Howard to work with, and he seems to be playing with a renewed confidence since the Michigan game. Ohio State never needed Howard to necessarily be a difference-maker but to simply take care of the ball, make the right reads, and get the ball to these weapons on the perimeter. The success of the passing game has subsequently opened things up for a rushing attack that can also overpower opponents, with the two-headed monster of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. The fact the Buckeyes can throw two bonafide feature backs at defenses seems to be making a particularly large difference so late in the season. With defenses tired and beat up, Ohio State has been able to run with fresh legs, simply overpowering much of the defenders that have stood in their way. With all these weapons, it shouldn't come as too much of a surprise Ohio State had a coming out party in the Rose Bowl but even so, 41 points and 500 yards against that Ducks defense was mind-boggling. The Longhorn defense is in for their toughest test of the entire season, but I don't think they'll be intimidated. They have the athletes up front to really make the Buckeyes work in much the same way they had to against Michigan. However, I do still have concerns about this secondary, which has been underwhelming beyond Jahdae Barron. I'm just not sure they have the cover corners able to withstand the barrage Ohio State can throw at you over sixty minutes of action.
Texas may not have the flash or the star power of Ohio State on the offensive side of the ball, but this is still an extremely productive unit. They've averaged nearly 36 points per game on the season and have done so with a very balanced attack, mixing things up between the run and the pass. Their first two games of this College Football Playoff have been a great demonstration of that balance. In the opening round game against Clemson they leaned on the ground game, rushing for nearly 300 yards in a comfortable victory. Against Arizona State in the quarterfinal, it was a completely different story, as it was Quinn Ewers and their passing attack that made all the difference, going for 322 yards in the tight win. Against a defense like Ohio State, it's difficult to know how Steve Sarkisian will choose to attack. The Buckeyes are stock full of future NFL defenders at every single level and of course, they're playing their best football at the best time. Ohio State has occasionally underwhelmed up front, but now Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau seem to have flipped a switch, and linebacker Cody Simon is as good as they come. Perhaps that means the Longhorns will look to get things going through the air, although the presence of Caleb Downs and veterans like Denzel Burke make that a difficult proposition, too. Fortunately, Texas receiver Isaiah Bond is getting healthier after missing the Clemson game, giving them a potential home run threat who can give this offense the type of vertical profile they've missed at times. Matthew Golden and Gunnar Helm will also be used heavily, and Helm could see an uptick in usage as a matchup problem. Still, Texas has to find a way to run the football with Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue, and just as importantly, their O-Line needs to show up. This is an elite group, but between Kelvin Banks Jr. not being 100 percent and all the guys Ohio State can throw at you, this will be a true war in the trenches that may make all the difference.
What makes this game hard to predict is that you can never quite be too sure which version of each of these teams is going to show up. When both are on their "A" game, it's hard to find two better teams in all of the country. In fact, I think these are the two best teams in the nation. But, they've both had several head-scratching performances that make you wonder if we could see another on the big stage. Part of me leans Texas here, as they've beaten everyone not named Georgia on their schedule and were my National Title pick heading into the CFB Playoff. But, it just feels like Ohio State is on a mission right now and no matter who stands in their way, they'll be able to finish the job. If they are playing together and all parts of this team are working together, as they have so far in this Playoff, they can't be stopped.
The Pick: Ohio State, 35 Texas, 28
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