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| Bryce Underwood, Michigan |
Upsets: 0-1
Superdogs: 1-0
Locks: 0-1
Iowa Hawkeyes @ (#16) Iowa State Cyclones
Line: Iowa State -3.5
O/U: 41.5
The Cy-Hawk rivalry is already one of the fiercest in all of college football, but the stakes have been raised in recent years. Both teams have legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations entering this game, particularly Iowa State, and a quality non-conference victory could go a long way in furthering those ambitions. That doesn't mean this is likely to be an aesthetically pleasing game - expect a low-scoring slugfest as these two collide in Ames.
Iowa State had quite the encore to their season-opening win over Kansas State in Dublin, as they came back home and demolished South Dakota, 55-7. After playing in less than ideal conditions across the pond, Rocco Becht looked in complete command, throwing just one incompletion and finishing with three touchdown passes. That's an encouraging sign for the Cyclones, even if it was against an FCS opponent. The belief heading into the year was this was likely to be a ground-and-pound team that was going to need to lean on their ground game, with top receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel now in the NFL. But Becht has looked the part early, even as Iowa State still looks for more production from their receiver corps. That should also be important against this Iowa defense in particular, one that always is tough to move at the line of scrimmage. Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III are going to get more carries than they did against South Dakota, as the Cyclones are still going to aim to establish the run. But if Becht can make some big throws early and open things up vertically, this Hawkeye defense becomes much less imposing. With that being said, turnovers are always a concern when you're playing Iowa. Perhaps no team in the nation consistently forces as many and capitalizes on them as the Hawkeyes. If they can pick off a pass or two, with this game almost sure to be a tight one, the entire dynamic of the game could swing.
As compared to Iowa State, the energy around the Iowa offense entering this matchup isn't super encouraging. South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski received plenty of hype over the offseason after transferring in to the program, but his first start was an ugly one. Gronkowski went just 8-15, for 44 yards, and a touchdown in a comfortable win over Albany. But, it wasn't just the stats that were bad, but the fact he missed several wide open receivers and made some truly horrendous throws for a veteran quarterback. Now, you could make the argument the Hawkeyes may have been holding some things back to not show their hand in anticipation of this game against the Cyclones, but it's hard to imagine them having any shot in this game unless we see sweeping changes. Sure, the Hawkeye running game will still be an effective fuel, with Xavier Williams and Terrell Washington Jr. both showing out last week. However, this is the same offense that had Kaleb Johnson last season and despite his heroics, they collapsed in this game in defeat during the second half. There has to be some semblance of balance and at least some reason for Iowa State to not stack the box with eight defenders, even if it's just a few big throws from Gronowski. That will rely on Iowa receivers also getting open, which is where Jacob Gill and tight end Addison Ostrenga will have to prove themselves after they also had quiet season openers.
Every single year, this matchup always feels like a coin flip to me. I picked the Hawkeyes last year and they were in control to win the game for most of the sixty minutes, before falling apart late. I do believe the Cyclones are the better team, but I am wary about the long-term effects of the Dublin travel without rest. This isn't an FCS team they're facing, but a Hawkeye team that will still be tough and physical. I think the Hawkeyes do just enough to push them around, and the offense somehow finds enough of a spark to come out victorious in a low-scoring affair.
The Pick: Iowa, 17 Iowa State, 13
(#15) Michigan Wolverines @ (#18) Oklahoma Sooners
Line: Oklahoma -5.5
O/U: 44.5
Michigan and Oklahoma were among the most disappointing teams in the entire country last fall, but both have big dreams of redemption in 2025. And after both cruised to victory in their respective openers, they are on the right track to doing just that. Yet, this matchup will tell us a lot more about both - can Oklahoma go from sub-.500 to a potential SEC Title contender? Is Michigan the real deal with Bryce Underwood under center? With this being the primetime game, the spotlight will be focused in on Norman, Oklahoma come Saturday night.
The Wolverine offense looked much different with Underwood in charge in Week One. He went 21-31 for 251 yards and a touchdown against New Mexico in the opener, but it went beyond the stat sheet - his mere presence and command gave this entire offense a different feel. Teams will have to be forced to at least respect the pass, and Underwood's legs, which certainly was not the case for the Wolverines last fall. Now, there are sure to be some mistakes, as any true freshman will make, and going into Norman is not an easy task for a second career start. But, Underwood feels like he has the right head on his shoulders, and should be ready, even against a Brent Venables-coached defense that is sure to throw out some interesting wrinkles. Michigan is still going to feature a power-run game, and Justice Haynes got off to quite the start, running for 159 yards and three touchdowns in the opener. That performance was encouraging for several reasons - Haynes is going to continue to be the feature guy, but the offensive line also looked the part after a frustrating 2024. Of course, they are going to face better athletes on their schedule than New Mexico, but they have an opportunity to own the line of scrimmage against the Sooners.
The Sooners also overhauled their offense after the disappointing 2024 campaign, bringing in a host of transfers to fill key spots. That includes Washington State transfer John Mateer at quarterback, who threw for 392 yards in the opener, albeit against Illinois State. Even against an FCS foe, that type of showing is exactly what Oklahoma is hoping for in 2025, a vertical passing game that is aggressive throughout the four quarters. It opens up the ground game, with Cal transfer Jaydn Ott leading the way, assuming he's good to go after missing time in camp and receiving just one carry in the opener. In fact, the entire running back situation is one to monitor for the Sooners, given Michigan's defensive style to play for field position. With Ott barely playing, Tory Blaylock finished as the leading rusher in the opener, but ended up leaving the game early with a shoulder injury. His status for Saturday is completely up in the air. Then there's Taylor Tatum, who had his moments last year, but completely missed the opener. With that part of their offense so unsettled, the pressure is on Mateer, who has to go up against a Michigan secondary that loses several key pieces from last season, but is still awfully good. Speaking of the Wolverine defense, the loss of linebacker Jaishawn Barham, who will miss the first half of this game after a targeting call is significant. He's the most impactful defender in this front seven, at least until others emerge, and so early in the season when the margins can be so thin, that could make a major difference.
Going into Norman and winning is of course no easy task, but I like Michigan's chances here. Even if Underwood has some freshman moments, I think this is the more physical team, and one that should be able to hold the lines of scrimmage. If they can slow down Mateer enough, which feels likely, I like their chances to pull off what is technically an upset, even though they sit higher in the polls than the Sooners.
The Pick: Michigan, 28 Oklahoma, 21
Other Picks
Baylor Bears @ (#17) SMU Mustangs -- I've been keeping an eye on this one as an upset opportunity, but I was not impressed with the Baylor defense in their opener. Rhett Lashlee is going to have something special drawn up, and I fear it will be too much for the Bears.
The Pick: SMU, 42 Baylor, 28
Kansas Jayhawks @ Missouri Tigers -- A classic rivalry game between two opponents who know each other very well. Both have looked good early, but I like Missouri's chances to figure out the right defensive gameplan to slow down Jalon Daniels and company.
The Pick: Missouri, 31 Kansas, 21
(#11) Illinois Fighting Illini @ Duke Blue Devils -- Another potential upset alert here, as Duke is a tough opponent and will be playing at home. Yet, the Illini looked in control in their opener, and a veteran QB like Luke Altmyer may just be enough to make all the difference.
The Pick: Illinois, 27 Duke, 24
South Florida Bulls @ (#13) Florida Gators -- South Florida was one of the best stories of Week One, as they took it to Boise State in their opener. But, going into "The Swamp" and taking down the Gators is a whole different challenge.
The Pick: Florida, 34 South Florida, 17
Upset: (#12) Arizona State Sun Devils @ Mississippi State Bulldogs -- A much tougher game than most people realize. Going into the pressure cooker that is Starkville is much different than people expect, and Mississippi State's offense looked like it was firing on all cylinders in Week One. The Sun Devil defense is better than Southern Mississippi's, but I still like the upset here.
The Pick: Mississippi State, 30 Arizona State, 278
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Oklahoma State Cowboys (+30) @ Oregon Ducks -- Listen, I know Oregon is going to be good this year. And Oklahoma State went 3-9. And it's in Eugene. But, this line is still pretty wild, right? We don't know enough about either to have a super strong opinion, but Mike Gundy is going to have his team fired up enough to at least cover.
The Pick: Oregon, 45 Oklahoma State, 17
Lock of the Week: Ole Miss Rebels (-9) @ Kentucky Wildcats -- Kentucky shocked Ole Miss last fall in one of the biggest upsets of the year, but I don't see that happening again. Lane Kiffin is going to be out for blood, and I'm not convinced this Wildcats team is much better than the 4-8 team we saw last fall.
The Pick: Ole Miss, 31 Kentucky, 14
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