College Football Picks 2025: Week One

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

 

(#1) Texas Longhorns @ (#3) Ohio State Buckeyes

Line: Ohio State -1.5

O/U: 46.5

You can't ask for a better way to get the first true Saturday of the college football season rolling than this matchup between Texas and Ohio State. The reigning National Champions are out to prove they're still the team to beat - the preseason No. 1 team is looking to show they're ready to climb the mountaintop. There are endless storylines to watch, but only one team will come out victorious, and position themselves as the early National Title favorite this fall.

After two seasons waiting behind Quinn Ewers, it is now Arch Manning time in Austin. One of the most high profile recruits in college football history, we've seen some of Arch so far, including a pair of starts last fall when Ewers was out with injury, but this feels like his true coming out party. And what better place to do so than one of the most raucous environments in college football in "The Shoe"? It will be interesting to see what the supporting cast looks like for Manning, as the Longhorns said goodbye to Matthew Golden and Isaiah Bond at wide receiver over the offseason, and saw their offensive line hit hard by NFL defections. You have to imagine they're going to look to pound the ball early as Arch acclimates to the game, especially considering that Ohio State is replacing countless defenders throughout the front seven themselves. Quintrevion Wisner was the most underrated element of the Texas offense a season ago, and now C.J. Baxter looks to be healthy after missing all of last season. That gives the 'Horns quite the effective duo, one with a nice blend of power and game-breaking speed. If they're successful in establishing the run early, they have a much better chance of taking the top off this Buckeye defense as the game moves on. Ryan Wingo will be the feature guy on the outside, at least to begin the year, and should be the focus of Ohio State's efforts in the secondary. With Davison Igbinosun and Caleb Downs, Ohio State can take away a whole side of the field, and how Texas chooses to adjust should have a major impact on the end result of this one. 

All eyes may be on Arch, but Ohio State is breaking in a new quarterback of their own, as Julian Sayin takes command of the offense after an offseason QB battle. The former Alabama transfer may not have much experience to work off of, but the Buckeyes have raved about him over the offseason, and he has the luxury of throwing to the best group of pass-catchers in college football. Superstar sophomore Jeremiah Smith is the big name for the Buckeyes, but with Carnell Tate, Brandon Inniss, and now Purdue tight end transfer Max Klare, Sayin has an abundance of options at his disposal. He'll also have the benefit of the home crowd behind him, a luxury Arch certainly will not have, and one that can make all the difference between two young quarterbacks playing in an important game. Interestingly enough, the Buckeyes' greatest question on offense is where the Longhorns strength lies, as it's still a bit of a mystery what OSU will feature at running back this year without TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Former West Virginia transfer C.J. Donaldson and sophomore James Peoples are widely expected to get the first crack at being the top options, but we'll learn a lot quickly about the long-term gameplan for Ohio State here. Even with all the talent the Buckeyes can feature on this side of the ball, this is still going to be a challenge for them against this Texas defense. The Longhorns have elite talent at every level and a clear identity, with coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski in his fourth season in the role. Colin Simmons is the big name off the edge who should look to make his presence felt, but Texas features athletes all over the field and has the type of athleticism that will be able to keep up with Ohio State, a rarity in college football today. They may not be able to completely stop Smith and company, but they certainly have a chance to keep them in check enough to come away victorious.

With both teams replacing so much NFL talent and this being the season opener, it's so difficult to feel overly strong about either of these teams and their chances in this game. They feel evenly matched top to bottom, but I do think Texas holds a clear advantage defensively. It's not just the talent, as Ohio State features Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles, but the continuity and stability there. The Longhorn defense knows exactly who they are and has shown their worth against elite offenses. I do think they're able to make enough stops and Arch and company do enough on the other side of the ball that the 'Horns are able to get their revenge from being eliminated in the College Football Playoff last winter.

The Pick: Texas, 28 Ohio State, 24

(#9) LSU Tigers @ (#4) Clemson Tigers

Line: Clemson -4.5

O/U: 57.5

Ohio State-Texas will get all the headlines, and for good reason, but Clemson-LSU should provide plenty of fireworks of their own on Saturday night. Not only will it feature an elite quarterback matchup between Cade Klubnik and Garrett Nussmeier, both of these teams have to feel like they have something to prove. Clemson got blown out in their opener last year, but is out to show they are ready to re-emerge as a National Title contender. LSU has spent big money in the portal over the last two years and with the return of Nussmeier, they're hoping to come out on top of a crowded SEC. Brian Kelly hasn't been able to come out on top in a season opener yet since arriving at LSU - can he flip the script this year?

Klubnik went through his fair share of growing pains early at Clemson, but he enters his senior season as one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. He's grown extremely comfortable in Garrett Riley's offense, with the two now in their third year together, has shown a poise and confidence that was missing in previous seasons. He also benefits from one of the best receiver groups in the country, one that feels like it could have a breakout season. Antonio Williams is the alpha in the room, at least for the time being, but the sophomore duo of T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr. seems to be on track towards something special. Add in a healthy Tyler Brown, who led the team in receiving in 2023 before missing all of last season, this will be quite a challenge for a LSU secondary that has struggled mightily in recent years. I'd imagine we're going to see an aggressive Clemson attack, even more so than we've seen in the past. I think they recognized how the Georgia game last year, they let the Bulldogs get up early and dictate the game. They're going to test the LSU defense vertically, and see how coordinator Blake Baker and the rest of this staff adjusts. With that being said, the Tigers will still need a semblance of balance to beat a good LSU team like the one they'll face in this one. Will Adam Randall, the converted receiver, be the feature option in this game, or will true freshman Gideon Davidson get an opportunity early? This is a tough LSU defense to run on, with hard-nosed linebacker Whit Weeks, plus a healthy Harold Perkins Jr. Still, Clemson will need to keep LSU honest, even if they may need to be creative in how they move the ball on the ground given the circumstances.

This is going to be a LSU offense that looks to throw the ball quite a bit themselves with Nussmeier returning for his senior season. The veteran quarterback waited his turn behind Jayden Daniels and has lived up to the hype since taking over as starter, including throwing for over 4,000 yards last season. Yet, the goal for Nussmeier as a player in 2025 is clear: take better care of the football. He threw 12 interceptions last fall, many of which came in crucial moments of the game for the Tigers. With how well Klubnik takes care of the ball the other way, Nussmeier is going to have to be smart with the ball and ensure one or two turnovers don't define this game. Easier said than done, especially with LSU still breaking in a bunch of new faces throughout the offense. Chris Hilton Jr. is the familiar name, but the Tigers are also hopeful guys like Nic Anderson and Barion Brown Jr. can come on and become instrumental elements of this offense this fall. Yet, the greatest mystery for me when it comes to this LSU offense is along the line, especially considering the opponent. Will Campbell was the high NFL Draft selection, but this unit also said goodbye to three other starters, meaning D.J. Chester is the only returnee. That's a real concern considering some of the defensive fronts they'll face over the course of the year, starting with a Clemson front that includes All-American talents in T.J. Parker and Peter Woods. If they're able to dictate the line of scrimmage and force Nussmeier to be uncomfortable, that could be the deciding factor.

Brian Kelly's season opener struggles with LSU have been well-documented, and this is potentially the toughest opponent he's faced yet. This Clemson team, at least on paper, feels as close to those late 2010s teams we saw dominating the sport, and they have the advantages in spots where LSU is the weakest. Add in the fact Clemson gets them at home, I have to roll with my preseason National Title pick here.

The Pick: Clemson, 34 LSU, 23

Other Picks

(#6) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ (#10) Miami Hurricanes -- The C.J. Carr era begins at Notre Dame, while Carson Beck hopes to begin his Miami career with a massive victory. The 'Canes have the homefield edge, but I still have no idea what to expect from this defense as Corey Hetherman puts his touches on it. The Irish have a clear identity under Marcus Freeman, and Jeremiyah Love makes all the difference.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 31 Miami, 27

Syracuse Orange vs. (#24) Tennessee Volunteers (Atlanta) -- The Orange had a dream 2024 campaign, and then were hurt by major attrition over the offseason. Can they recover and find a way to pull off an upset in a neutral site? Tennessee has questions of their own, but seem to hold the edge in talent.

The Pick: Tennessee, 27 Syracuse, 14

TCU Horned Frogs @ North Carolina Tar Heels -- So begins the Bill Belichick era in Chapel Hill... and I have absolutely no idea what to expect. With that being said, the Tar Heel defense has been a problem for some time, and they'll have their hands full with Josh Hoover and a high-octane Horned Frogs attack.

The Pick: TCU, 41 North Carolina, 30

Utah Utes @ UCLA Bruins -- Old Pac-12 foes collide in this matchup at the Rose Bowl. Both will be breaking in new quarterbacks and a lot of new pieces, but the Utes always have an elite defense. I think they spoil Nico Iamaleava's Bruins debut.

The Pick: Utah, 24 UCLA, 21

Upset: Virginia Tech Hokies over (#13) South Carolina Gamecocks -- LaNorris Sellers is must-watch TV. But, the reality is that South Carolina was hit hard by losses over the offseason. With little other upset options beyond this one, I'll take my shot with the Hokies in the neutral site.

The Pick: Virginia Tech, 27 South Carolina, 24

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): New Mexico Lobos (+37) @ Michigan Wolverines -- Bryce Underwood is likely exactly what Michigan needs to fix their offensive woes. Yet, this is his first ever collegiate start, and he may be slow to get things going. Are we sure the Wolverines are going to be able to score 37 points?

The Pick: Michigan, 35 New Mexico, 7

Lock of the Week: Oregon State Beavers (-1.5) vs. California Golden Bears -- Another old Pac-12 collision in Week One! Oregon State brought in Maalik Murphy over the offseason, while Cal is a complete mystery with what they lost through the portal. I like the Beavers to win this one, even if it may not be a pretty one.

The Pick: Oregon State, 31 California, 17