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| Nate Frazier, Georgia |
Upset: 1-1
Superdogs: 1-1
Locks: 0-2
(#6) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#15) Tennessee Volunteers
Line: Georgia -3.5
O/U: 49.5
The first major SEC game of the fall sets the stage for Week Three, as Georgia travels to Knoxville to take on the 15th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers. Both teams stand at 2-0, but neither have made much of an impression on the young season just yet, beating up on inferior foes. This game will tell us which may be ready to make a run at an SEC Title, as both look for an early resume-booster for their College Football Playoff hopes.
It hasn't felt like Georgia has had to pull out anything from their playbook over the season's first two weeks, as they've cruised past Marshall and Austin Peay. Yet, this game will tell us a lot about what we can expect from an offense that is going to be relying on some new faces this fall. Quarterback Gunner Stockton is the most notable change in his first full season as starter, but it will also be interesting to monitor who emerges as the top option out wide. Tailback Nate Frazier is one player I've had pegged as a breakout candidate, and he's been effective over the first two games. But, is he truly ready to become the bell cow back, and a true difference-maker for this offense? On the perimeter, is USC transfer Zachariah Branch ready to put it completely together over the course of an entire season? Or, is this going to be another year where the Bulldogs lean heavily on their tight ends in the passing game? This offense is loaded with talent, but there are questions here, too. Perhaps my greatest question lies along the offensive line, which has pummeled opponents early, but faces a serious test in Tennessee. Every defensive coordinator wants to run an aggressive defense, but Tim Banks takes it to another level for the Volunteers. He'll take a lot of risks, and it's often boom-or-bust on this side of the ball for the Vols. When it works, this can be one of the stingiest defenses in the country, as it was for much of last season, but it can also be prone to allowing the big play. How Georgia reacts will be very interesting - this hasn't been an offense that has needed to be explosive, but they have their fair share of big play threats. Whether they're able to take their shots and potentially break open the game down the field may make all the difference in what is sure to be a fierce, competitive contest.
For all the drama that unfolded around Tennessee's quarterback situation this spring, the Vols have to be pretty satisfied with Joey Aguilar through the first couple games. Aguilar, who was at Appalachian State before a brief transfer to UCLA, where he was essentially swapped for Nico Iamaleava, has thrown for 535 yards and five touchdowns over the first two weeks. Aguilar is not the most talented quarterback Josh Heupel has ever coached, but he's looked in complete command and what stands out in particular is how well he takes care of the football. He hasn't thrown an interception on the season yet, and hasn't been sacked, either, a testament to this Tennessee offensive line. Needless to say, he's in store for his greatest challenge yet against a Georgia defense stock full of its usual NFL talent. There isn't quite the one elite pass rusher up front that we've come to know here from the Bulldogs with guys like Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter, but the back seven has all the pieces to be elite. Raylen Wilson and C.J. Allen are going to swarm the Tennessee ground game, and Aguilar is going to have to make more difficult throws in tight windows than what he has done over the first couple weeks. Heupel is going to scheme players open, but this Tennessee offense doesn't seem to have the skill position players they've had in the past, at least not on paper, and Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs have had their numbers in recent years. Don't be surprised if this is the type of thing that turns into a bit of a low-scoring, grinding type of game, one that seems to favor the 'Dawgs in that scenario.
It's difficult to feel particularly strong about either one of these teams. They've both impressed during the early portion of the season, but we still don't know much about either, and it feels like Georgia in particular has held back of their playbook to begin the year. Going into Knoxville is no easy feat, especially against a Volunteer team that is playing well and playing confident, but the Bulldogs feel like they're going to bring out something special int his game, and Smart's track record against UT speaks for itself.
The Pick: Georgia, 24 Tennessee, 17
(#16) Texas A&M Aggies @ (#8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Line: Notre Dame -6.5
O/U: 50.5
Last fall, Notre Dame's season-opening win over Texas A&M set the stage for their eventual run to the National Championship Game - with a slight hiccup against Northern Illinois in between. This year, it will be more about redemption after they lost their opener to Miami. On the other side, the Aggies have cruised to a 2-0 start, but are looking for a big win of their own. Mike Elko going up against the school where he was once defensive coordinator adds yet another layer of intrigue to an interesting non-conference affair.
There have been understandable growing pains for Notre Dame QB C.J. Carr in the first start of his collegiate career against Miami, but he also showed some real grit in getting the Irish back into position to potentially win the game on the final drive. To succeed against this A&M defense, he'll need more help than he received in Week One. Notre Dame's rush offense, which includes Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, was held mostly in check by the Hurricanes. Perhaps even more concerning was the fact the offensive line was shredded throughout all four quarters, including the crucial sacks to close out the eventual loss to Miami. I'm not sure the Aggie defensive front is quite at the level of Miami's, but this is a defense full of future NFL athletes, too. The Irish are going to need their offensive line to come together over the course of their bye week, and Love to find his 2024 self after last week's struggles. With that being said, we may also be seeing a transition for this Irish offense overall, one where they're going to attack the field vertically with Carr than we've seen in the past. Despite the struggles on the line, the passing game looked much better than expected for the first week of the season, and you have to imagine it has nowhere to go but up. This Notre Dame team becomes significantly more intimidating if they can find the explosiveness through the air that has been missing for years in South Bend.
A&M did not have much difficulties over their first two games of the season, rolling past UTSA and Utah State, now entering this game with more momentum than the Irish. The Utah State game was a very encouraging one for the offense, as QB Marcel Reed looked in rhythm and the Aggies got all they wanted on the ground. The addition of NC State transfer K.C. Concepcion feels huge for this team, giving them a true vertical threat in the passing game, as well as a player who has already made his presence felt on special teams. Now, however, is the true test for this offense and coordinator Collin Klein. Few teams in college football are as consistent on the defensive side of the ball than the Irish and despite the fact they took their lumps in the opener, I have a suspicion they'll be stout here once again. The front seven may not have the star power they've had in the past, but Notre Dame is going to put a lot of pressure on A&M at the line of scrimmage, and the linebackers have long been a disciplined group that fills gaps as well as anybody in the country. We'll see how A&M's rushing game responds - Rueben Owens and Le'Veon Moss haven't been forced to do too much, but the Irish are an entirely different challenge. Even with how good Marcel Reed has looked early, the Aggies would hate for this to turn into a game that rests on his shoulders through the air.
Notre Dame came out on top in a bit of an ugly game between these two to open the 2024 campaign, and I like their chances to repeat this weekend. Not only is the game in South Bend, I came out impressed with the way this team looked in Week One, even in a losing effort. On the flip side, A&M's offense has looked great, but I do have concerns about the defense, which hasn't quite played up to its talent level so far on the young season. Notre Dame just feels like the smarter play, at least until we see the Aggies prove it against top competition.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 31 Texas A&M, 21
Other Picks
(#18) South Florida Bulls @ (#5) Miami Hurricanes -- South Florida has been the surprise of the early 2025 season, beating up on Boise State and shocking Florida in consecutive weeks. This would be a great story if they went on to beat the 'Canes, but this feels like a come down to Earth moment for me. Miami is far more talented, and a veteran QB steers them to a comfortable win.
The Pick: Miami, 42 South Florida, 14
Wisconsin Badgers @ (#19) Alabama Crimson Tide -- The Tide got on track by dominating ULM last weekend, but Wisconsin could be a tough game, even in Tuscaloosa. Neither of these offenses have looked right, but Alabama's edge defensively secures them the win.
The Pick: Alabama, 21 Wisconsin, 10
Florida Gators @ (#3) LSU Tigers -- This feels like a Billy Napier surprise game, where the Gators play up when it seems they are their lowest. Yet, it's just hard for me to imagine them going into Baton Rouge and taking down the Tigers, especially with this much improved LSU defense.
The Pick: LSU, 28 Florida, 24
(#12) Clemson Tigers @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -- Another potential upset alert here, as Clemson has to go into Bobby Dodd Stadium against an underrated Yellow Jackets team. However, I think the Tigers answer some questions and come out with the right gameplan for the victory.
The Pick: Clemson, 35 Georgia Tech, 21
Upset: Vanderbilt Commodores @ (#11) South Carolina Gamecocks -- LaNorris Sellers is a special talent, but I'm not entirely sold on South Carolina being the 11th best team in all of the land. Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt are a much better football team than most realize, and I see this as a statement game here.
The Pick: Vanderbilt, 27 South Carolina, 24
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Wyoming Cowboys (+23.5) vs. Utah Utes -- Utah's offensive overhaul is working so far, but Wyoming is always good for one non-conference surprise. At home, they keep this one close enough to cover this spread.
The Pick: Utah, 38 Wyoming, 18
Lock of the Week: UAB Blazers (-11) vs. Akron Zips -- A rough start to the year for my locks, and another week where I'm not loving the board here. I'm not sure UAB is very good at all, but they get an Akron team at home who has not scored a single point over two weeks. It's worth a shot, right?
The Pick: UAB, 24 Akron, 7
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