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| Marcel Reed, Texas A&M |
Upset: 3-6
Superdogs: 4-2
Locks: 4-5
(#3) Texas A&M Aggies @ (#20) LSU Tigers
Line: Texas A&M -2.5
O/U: 49.5
Not since the days of the Southwest Conference have the Texas A&M Aggies been ranked as high as No. 3 in the land, but Mike Elko has the program rolling in his second season at the helm. The Aggies are 7-0, with an impressive win over Notre Dame in the non-conference to boot. However, it's the next five games that will really tell us what this team is truly about, with three ranked teams lurking in road games. First up is the reeling LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge.
Texas A&M relied heavily on their ground game throughout the Jimbo Fisher years and into the debut campaign of Elko, but this 2025 edition has shown some real big-play ability. Quarterback Marcel Reed has grown up quickly, leading a balanced and consistent group. Reed's legs have always been there, but his downfield passing has taken off this fall and he's shown a real poise and command of the offense that was there in spurts last season. Of course, it helps that the Aggies hit on two of their receiver targets in the portal in NC State transfer K.C. Concepcion and Mississippi State's Mario Craver. The duo has been the fuel of this passing attack all season - they've combined for 69 receptions and over 1,000 yards, while no other Aggie has over 11 catches on the year. Craver in particular has really come into his own as this team's deep threat, a YAC weapon who has formed quick chemistry with Reed. With that being said, this LSU secondary is not the same group we've become accustomed to in the last couple years. This is a legitimate SEC secondary with true difference-makers for coordinator Blake Baker. It's a unit that includes my midseason Jim Thorpe Award winner, Mansoor Delane, who has become absolutely shutdown over the last few weeks. I have a feeling he'll match up early and often with either Craver or Concepcion, which should give us some awesome tape. In fact, this entire LSU defense has been downright good for much of the season, with the Ole Miss being the primary exception. But even in that game, they surrendered lots of yardage, but were still in the game late by holding the Rebels to just 23 points. This entire defense has really taken off under Baker and should be ready for the balance A&M is able to create. Even with Whit Weeks appearing to be sidelined for this game, this looks to be the greatest defensive challenge A&M Has seen yet this fall.
While the defense has been a strong point, it remains baffling to me just how bad this LSU offense has looked all season long. They brought back a supposed Heisman contender at quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, a rising sophomore at tailback in Caden Durham, and they spent big money in the portal over the offseason to upgrade the receiver corps. It has simply not come together in any effective way - the Tigers are averaging just 25.9 points per contest. I'm still under the belief that Nussmeier, while inconsistent, is a much better QB than we've seen this season and I see real opportunity for him against this A&M defense. After all, this Aggie defense did give up nearly 300 yards to C.J. Carr and Notre Dame in just his second start of his career earlier this fall, even with the improvements they've made since. It's the complete lack of any type of running game that has been the sore spot for LSU much of this season. Durham has barely been able to get anything going, and none of the other options in the rest of the backfield have fared much better. To be fair, Durham hasn't been 100 percent much of this season, but it does feel like this team has to change up something in a big way if they want to have some semblance of success running the ball. The offensive line has been a primary source of problems after replacing four starters from last season and this A&M front is not an easy matchup to get things rolling again. Play-caller Joe Sloan has tried to disguise the rushing issues with the short passing game, which has been a painful watch. What I'd like to see most from LSU, and what I think we may finally see, is more aggressiveness on this side of the ball. It does feel like Brian Kelly is coaching for his job over the next month-plus now - will we see him act like it? This team has all the talent to be significantly better, and I don't see what they have to lose in this type of game.
The SEC race the final month-and-a-half of the season is going to be a wild one, and I think we're going to see the league really beat itself up. A&M is a very good football team, but I think someone, or potentially multiple teams, catches up to them down the stretch. This is such a difficult conference to stay atop of, and Death Valley is a different beast entirely. While LSU may not be inspiring a ton of confidence lately, I think this team figures things out for the Saturday night upset.
The Pick: LSU, 34 Texas A&M, 28
(#8) Ole Miss Rebels @ (#13) Oklahoma Sooners
Line: Oklahoma -5.5
O/U: 51.5
We saw the perfect season dream for Ole Miss die last weekend with a road loss to Georgia. Now, they must pick themselves back up and travel to Norman, Oklahoma, to face a Sooners team looking to regain momentum themselves. This has the feels of a late October College Football Playoff elimination game, with the loser having no margin for error the rest of the season with two defeats.
Ole Miss managed 35 points in the loss to Georgia, but it was really all quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who fought valiantly despite the defeat. The former Ferris State transfer has been a constant since taking over for the injured Austin Simmons, and he's still playing well despite opposing teams now having tape on him. Chambliss is not always the most accurate passer, but he doesn't turn the ball over much for just how many shots he takes down the field. It also helps that this Rebel receiver corps is full of explosiveness, including De'Zhaun Stribling, Deuce Alexander, and Dae'Quan Wright at tight end. Ole Miss is going to need more from their rushing attack than just Chambliss running around after they were stymied by Georgia last weekend. They totaled just 88 yards on 24 attempts, a measly 3.7 YPC that consistently put them behind the chains against an elite defense. Oklahoma's defense may be even more difficult, as Brent Venables has done a complete overhaul of this unit in his time in charge. What was once a defense that surrendered big play after big play and was seemingly always beat the D-Line has become one of the nation's best. They have one of the nation's best defensive fronts, and rarely suffer the defensive breakdowns in the secondary that once defined the Lincoln Riley years. You have to wonder what Lane has drawn up for Ole Miss. He's a magician at scheming open mismatches, but will this team have the same juice after the tough loss last weekend? We're going to learn a lot about this Rebel team, likely more than Oklahoma in this game.
It was a nice recovery this past weekend from Oklahoma, as they stomped on South Carolina 26-7 to get back to winning after the Red River loss to Texas. Quarterback John Mateer still didn't quite look like his vintage self, but the Sooners were able to get by with a methodical passing game, strong rushing attack, and good defense. They are going to have to elevate their play against a team like Ole Miss, which simply has more talent on both sides of the ball than South Carolina. It's just such a mystery with Mateer at this point - he was always a bit of a streaky player who took his risks, but the injury has added even more complexity to the situation. Oklahoma's rushing attack was able to carry the day against South Carolina, but I'm still convinced it's that great of a group, at least not yet. They've struggled to run the ball against the top teams on their schedule, although Ole Miss has had their issues stopping the run, too. Perhaps last week was what freshman Tory Blaylock needed to get things back on track after a quiet few weeks for the Sooners. If they can establish the run and Mateer doesn't feel like he has to work his magic to come out victorious, this Oklahoma teams becomes much more formidable.
Norman is a tough place to go into and win, especially when you're fresh off a loss. But, I feel like I have a better understanding of what Ole Miss is at this point than Oklahoma, and I trust the Rebels more. That's not to say this team is anywhere close to perfect, but I do feel like Lane has a Playoff team here. With the weapons they possess offensively, I see them moving the ball and making just enough stops the other way to come out with the win.
The Pick: Ole Miss, 28 Oklahoma, 21
Other Picks
(#15) Missouri Tigers @ (#10) Vanderbilt Commodores -- This Vanderbilt season has been a joy to watch, with Diego Pavia finding himself in the midst of the Heisman hunt deep into October. Yet, I do think Missouri, with their offensive balance and athletic defense, is the better team here.
The Pick: Missouri, 31 Vanderbilt, 28
(#18) South Florida Bulls @ Memphis Tigers -- This had the looks of the Group of Five game of the year (and a potential College GameDay spot) before Memphis lost last weekend. They do get South Florida at home, but this Bulls team has been on an absolute tear all season. Head coach Alex Golesh is going to have his guys fired up and ready to go away from home.
The Pick: South Florida, 41 Memphis, 30
(#25) Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans -- The Wolverines may have their flaws, as most teams that have true freshman quarterbacks often do, but they're fresh off their most complete game of the season against Washington. They should be able to come into East Lansing and come away with a hard-fought win.
The Pick: Michigan, 27 Michigan State, 14
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Iowa Hawkeyes -- The Floyd of Rosedale is back on the line this weekend in Iowa City. Minnesota is feeling great after a dominant win against Nebraska last Friday, but they've long struggled in Kinnick. It's always a coin flip with these two, but the home factor gives me the slight edge to Iowa.
The Pick: Iowa, 16 Minnesota, 14
Upset: Baylor Bears @ (#21) Cincinnati Bearcats -- Cincinnati is not getting the national love it deserves for a team that is 6-1 and plays a really enjoyable brand of football. With that being said, the Big 12 wackiness is always a factor, and Baylor has the weapons to win a shootout of their own.
The Pick: Baylor, 42 Cincinnati, 37
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): UCLA Bruins (+26) @ Indiana Hoosiers -- UCLA has been a completely different team over the season's last month, so I'm a bit surprised to see this line, despite Indiana's dominance. The magic could certainly run out for the Bruins, but I'll take my chances with the way this team is playing, even with Nico Iamaleava a bit banged up.
The Pick: Indiana, 45 UCLA, 21
Lock of the Week: Alabama Crimson Tide (-10) @ South Carolina Gamecocks -- The Gamecocks have been playing their difficult schedule at least tough and Columbia is a tough place to play. But with the way Alabama is playing, I think they take out the Gamecocks comfortably, even on the road.
The Pick: Alabama, 35 South Carolina, 17
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