 |
| Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona |
Upsets: 1-1
Superdogs: 1-1
Locks: 0-2
(#20) Arizona Wildcats @ (#14) Kansas State Wildcats
Line: Kansas State -6.5
O/U: 60.5
The best game of the weekend looks to be this one on Friday night, a clash between a pair of new Big 12 rivals. On one side, Arizona has cruised to a 2-0 start after blowing apart New Mexico and Northern Arizona, while Kansas State needed a hard-fought win over Tulane last weekend to arrive here with an undefeated mark. This has all the makings of a Friday night thriller, and the type of game that makes the Big 12 the most intriguing power conference this fall.
After going for 627 yards and 61 points in their opener, Arizona's offense cooled down last week, struggling to find a rhythm as they clawed to a 22-10 win over NAU. It felt like a reminder that, for all the talent on this side of the ball, this is still a team with a young quarterback breaking in a new coaching staff and plenty of fresh faces. Having a shorter week heading into this one isn't an ideal situation, but the Wildcats won't shy away from what they do best - they are going to attack down the field with an aggressive passing attack. Quarterback Noah Fifita is still prone to the occasional mistake, but few quarterbacks in the country are as impressive when he's on his "A" game. It certainly helps that Fifita has the luxury of throwing the ball out wide to arguably the nation's best receiver, Tetairoa McMillan, whose 304-yard, four touchdown performance in the opener was one of the most impressive single-game performances in recent memory. Yet, for this Arizona team to reach their potential, it does feel like they are going to need others to get involved. Outside of McMillan, they've struggled to get anyone going in the passing game, and the ground game could be in for a tough matchup against an always-stout Kansas State defensive front. This feels like an opportunity for a veteran like Montana Lemonious-Craig to show what they can do, with K-State almost certain to key in on McMillan all night. Fifita also should look to reel in his game, at least early on - this is a well-coached Kansas State defense that capitalizes on turnovers as well as anyone. A key early turnover or two and this feels like a game where K-State could get an early lead and slow the game down to a grinding halt with their style of play.
Kansas State may have gotten all they could handle from Tulane a week ago, but they showed excellent grit and determination in coming away with the win. Still, they have to feel like they are going to have to play at a different level to come away with a victory against a Top 20 team, even at home. Offensively, that means Avery Johnson has to be better. The sophomore quarterback entered the year with significant hype and he's been solid, but the Wildcat offense feels rather one-dimensional at this point in time. Tailback D.J. Giddens is a stud and sure to have a field day against an Arizona defense that has struggled to defend the run, but finding balance could make all the difference. Between Keegan Johnson, Will Swanson, and Jayce Brown, Kansas State boasts an abundance of weapons, but it's up for Johnson to get them the ball and let them make plays. It also feels like the coaching staff has been holding Johnson back as a runner, with just 11 attempts over the first two weeks of the season. Perhaps the Wildcats are worried about running him too much for fear of injury, but a dual-threat like this, Kansas State becomes a much scarier team if he's unleashed. Perhaps in a close game like this figures to be, Chris Klieman and offensive coordinator Conor Riley will finally let the talented QB show what he can do with his legs.
Arizona now owns the longest win streak in FBS football after Michigan's loss last weekend, but they'll be hard-pressed to keep it going on the road in Manhattan. Arizona should be able to put points, especially after what Tulane did last Saturday, but K-State is more battle-tested at this point in the young season. They also feel better on the margins, such as on the line and on special teams, which could make all the difference in a tight one like this. Add in the home crowd, which is sure to be raucous on this Friday night, I'll take the favorite.
The Pick: Kansas State, 31 Arizona, 28
(#4) Alabama Crimson Tide @ Wisconsin Badgers
Line: Alabama -16
O/U: 50.5
Both Alabama and Wisconsin may enter Week Three at 2-0, but it's clear these two are both shaking off some early season rust. The Crimson Tide didn't exactly light the world on fire last weekend, albeit against a South Florida team that is much better than most realize. Wisconsin has needed to pull away late in the second half against a pair of inferior opponents in Western Michigan and South Dakota. In fact, if not for a muffed punt from the Broncos in the opener, the Badgers could easily be sitting at 1-1. Both teams have to be hoping the elevated competition kicks them into another gear with conference schedules right around the corner.
Alabama may enter the game averaging 52.5 points per game on the young season, but the offense was underwhelming a week ago. Aside from a couple big plays late, the Tide struggled to get their playmakers in space, and had frustrating turnover issues, with a trio of fumbles. It came as a surprise to see a Kalen DeBoer-coached team look so sloppy, but you have to believe they'll have a game-plan drawn up to attack this Badger defense. Jalen Milroe and the passing game has been a pleasant surprise, thanks in large part to the play of star true freshman Ryan Williams, but I suspect the Tide will look to the ground to find an early rhythm against the Badgers. Jam Miller and Justice Haynes are a rock-solid combo who can breeze through arm tackles - if they take care of the football, they have a chance to be an overwhelming combo. The hope is that they'll also benefit from an offensive line that can't play much worse after the USF game was marred by penalties and poor play. Kadyn Proctor is still questionable, but seems to be getting healthier each day, which would give the Tide a major boost up front. This matchup also feels beneficial to the Crimson Tide. Wisconsin still boasts a solid defense, but gone are the days when they had NFL-caliber linebackers patrolling the middle of the field, which should give Haynes and Miller room to run. With that being said, it looks like potential breakout candidate Tackett Curtis is ready to emerge at inside linebacker, as he'll start with Jake Chaney set to miss the first half after being ejected in the South Dakota game. After what we saw in his lone season at USC, Curtis feels like the type of relentless Badger defender that could stymie an Alabama drive or two.
Stop me if you've heard this before, Wisconsin fans. The Badgers have been able to move the ball on the ground with great success, as Chez Mellusi, Cade Yacamelli, and Tawee Walker have proven to be an effective trio. But, with the passing game struggling, opposing defenses just haven't had to respect the Wisconsin offense vertically, instead stacking the box and playing downhill. Is there any hope Tyler Van Dyke can finally get things rolling after a pair of mediocre showings to begin the fall? If there is a lifeline, it's the fact the Alabama secondary looked downright bad against USF last Saturday, and seems to still be mixing and matching on what the best look for them will be. And, Will Pauling and Bryson Green are two capable receiver on the outside, if Van Dyke can find them. I suspect Alabama defensive coordinator Kane Wommack will have something different drawn up than he did against South Florida, perhaps looking to get after the quarterback with more exotic blitzes. How the offensive line, and Van Dyke, handles it should decide whether they are going to be able to spring an upset, or instead turn in another underwhelming showing.
This certainly isn't your peak Alabama team, at least not yet, as they adjust to DeBoer and figure out the right fits for their personnel. But, this isn't your peak Wisconsin team, either. They've looked softer in the trenches than in the past, and the same old offensive issues persist. Even if they are able to keep this one tight into the second half, I'm just not sure they have enough playmakers to steal away a victory.
The Pick: Alabama, 34 Wisconsin, 17
(#16) LSU Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Line: LSU -7
O/U: 49.5
Despite a season-opening loss to USC, LSU is still in position to make a College Football Playoff run if they're able to bolster their resume through a difficult SEC slate. First up on that slate? A South Carolina team that looked underwhelming in their opener, before starting out their conference schedule with a domination on the road against Kentucky. It sets up an interesting battle between teams with opposing strengths at what should be an electric atmosphere in Columbia.
Garrett Nussmeier waited his turn at LSU behind Jayden Daniels, and the junior quarterback has lived up the hype through his first two starts of the 2024 season. He's gone over 300 yards in both games and stuffed the stat sheet full last weekend, tossing six touchdowns. Granted, the South Carolina defense poses a much different challenge than Nicholls, but Nussmeier looks in complete control right now, and doesn't seem to be shaken by the absence of Malik Nabers or Brian Thomas out wide. On the contrary, the Tigers have been able to find others to make plays on the perimeter, with a deep and versatile receiver corps led by Aaron Anderson, Kyren Lacy, and C.J. Daniels. Chris Hilton, who has missed the first two games with an ankle injury, also has a good chance to return, giving Nussmeier plenty of firepower against a South Carolina secondary that hasn't faced a test like this so far on the young season. That feels like a spot where LSU has a distinct advantage, and I suspect they won't be shy getting the ball down the field, even on the road. Yet, for all the fireworks LSU will look to fire off through the air, where I'm watching most closely is in the trenches. This Gamecock defensive front is legitimate - they hounded a good Kentucky offensive line for an entire sixty minutes, and feature one of the country's best freshman in Dylan Stewart. The Tigers feature two likely high NFL Draft selections in Will Campbell and Emery Jones, this is an opportunity to show what they can do against a group that is going to be flying all over the football.
South Carolina has a first-year starter of their own at quarterback in LaNorris Sellers, but their success through the air certainly has not been at the LSU level. Instead, they've managed just 287 yards through the air over their first two contests, instead leaning on a deliberate and methodical rushing attack. It worked just fine against Kentucky, a defense with several future NFL Draftees, but you do wonder if their strategy has to change against LSU. The Tigers are stout up front, with the linebacker trio of Greg Penn, Harold Perkins, and Whit Weeks able to play sideline to sideline and attack downhill. It's the secondary where LSU's defensive problems lie, even with Brian Kelly and new defensive coordinator Blake Baker working to patch up the back-end the best they can. Is South Carolina willing to take their shots? We've heard Sellers has a huge arm, but we just haven't seen it so far in 2024, and his accuracy has been shaky. It just feels like a situation where, at home, you're going to need to take your risks to pull off the upset. We'll see how Shane Beamer and Dowell Loggains choose to play it - they can lean on Raheim Sanders and Sellers to keep it tight, but it does feel like there are going to need to be some big throws to finish off the Tigers.
The Gamecocks came away as one of the big winners of Week Two with their performance against Kentucky, but I'd recommend we don't read too much into one game early on in the season. This is a solid team, but it's one with notable deficiencies still, and LSU is never an easy foe to welcome to town. If the Tigers can do just enough to slow down South Carolina offensively, I have enough trust in Nussmeier to think he can go into Columbia and lead his team to victory, especially if his offensive line is able to buy him time against this imposing Gamecock defensive front.
The Pick: LSU, 35 South Carolina, 24
Other Picks
(#24) Boston College Eagles @ (#6) Missouri Tigers -- One of the few ranked matchups on the weekend, in fact the only one on Saturday. This is going to be a much more challenging matchup than people may realize, BC quarterback Thomas Castellanos is the type of difference-maker that can pull off an upset. But, Missouri has the better roster top-to-bottom, and gets the Eagles at home.
The Pick: Missouri, 34 Boston College, 27
(#9) Oregon Ducks @ Oregon State Beavers -- No longer a conference game, but a rivalry with all the hostility in the world. Oregon's shaky start to the 2024 campaign has come as a surprise, but there's just too many weapons on this roster. They end up overwhelming the Beavers, even if it stays close into the second half.
The Pick: Oregon, 41 Oregon State, 21
Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies -- It's strange to see the Apple Cup played in mid-September, but such is the strange world conference realignment has created. We don't know a ton about either one of these teams, but the Huskies have looked surprisingly crisp for a team bringing in so many new faces.
The Pick: Washington, 27 Washington State, 23
Upset: Tulane Green Wave @ (#15) Oklahoma Sooners -- Needless to say, Oklahoma's 16-12 victory over a Houston team that was rocked the week before by UNLV wasn't super encouraging. They have real problems offensively, and Tulane should be extra motivated after getting robbed last week due to a questionable offensive pass interference call late in the loss to Kansas State.
The Pick: Tulane, 28 Oklahoma, 21
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Ball State Cardinals (+36.5) @ Miami Hurricanes -- Miami is now in the Top 10 and Cam Ward looks to be a Heisman frontrunner. But, this is still a program that has a frustrating tendency to play down to their competition, and Ball State could be tough. The Cardinals won't win, but they should be able to cover.
The Pick: Miami, 44 Ball State, 13
Lock of the Week: Vanderbilt Commodores (-10) vs. Georgia State Panthers -- Listen, I know Vanderbilt isn't going to make some Cinderella run for an SEC Title. But, why is this spread so close? The Commodores have looked like a different team through the season's first two weeks, and Georgia State is a mediocre Group of Five team, at least in its current iteration. I don't see any Sun Belt over SEC upset here.
The Pick: Vanderbilt, 31 Georgia State, 10
No comments:
Post a Comment