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| Miller Moss, USC |
Current Picks Record: 17-9
Upsets: 1-2
Superdogs: 1-2
Locks: 0-3
(#6) Tennessee Volunteers @ (#15) Oklahoma Sooners
Line: -7
O/U: 56.5
Life in the SEC begins for Oklahoma this weekend, and if they needed any reminder of their new reality, they'll face five teams currently ranked in the Top 7 of the AP Poll over the coming two months. That slate begins with Tennessee, who has shredded their competition en route to a 3-0 start and come into Norman as a touchdown favorite.
Now entering the fourth week of the regular season, the Sooners have to be hoping now is the time for their offense to hit its rhythm after a slow start to the fall. They did manage to put up 34 points against Tulane last weekend, but finding consistency has been a real challenge. Quarterback Jackson Arnold has showed his youth and inexperience, and hasn't been helped by a rash of injuries to his receiver corps, which is now extremely thin beyond Deion Burks. On the ground, Taylor Tatum came on and scored two touchdowns in the first half last Saturday, but the unit has been surprisingly inefficient early on. Much of that struggle can be blamed on an offensive line that simply has not looked up to Oklahoma's typical standards, even against Group of Five competition. This is going to be a particularly tough matchup for this unit this weekend. They face a Tennessee defense that loves to blitz, and features one of the game's premier pass rushers in James Pearce Jr. I'm sure the Sooners will try and disguise this weakness by getting the ball out quickly on the perimeter and utilizing screens, but there isn't the speed or explosiveness on the outside we've come to expect of Oklahoma. The Volunteers can be susceptible to the big play, but the secondary has clamped down so far this fall, and will look to see if Arnold can beat them. Perhaps having the Sooner faithful behind him in Norman could lead to some extra magic for the sophomore signal-caller, but the supporting cast around him simply doesn't strike fear into defenses the way it used to be, particularly with the injury bug biting so soon.
No, Oklahoma is probably going to look to slow this game down and turn it into something of a defensive slugfest - an objective easier said than done against this Tennessee offense. Josh Heupel is one of the best in the business right now, and he has the perfect personnel to run his scheme. In short, the Volunteer offense has terrorized opponents through the first three weeks of the season, and doesn't look to be slowing down anytime soon. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is the mastermind, a fearless gunslinger who can beat defenses with his rocket arm or his legs, but he's far from the only Volunteer that can hurt defenses. Tailback Dylan Sampson provides just enough out of the backfield to keep defenses honest, so that the Volunteers can collapse the defense and beat them over the top. With an abundance of weapons for Iamaleava to work with, this offense can spread the defense thin and attack in so many different ways. Playmakers like Bru McCoy, Squirrel White, Dont'e Thornton - this is an embarrassment of riches for an offensive mind like Heupel. With that being said, this will be the toughest defense Tennessee has seen yet in 2024, even more difficult than NC State. Brent Venables' fingerprints are all over the defense, and this group is much more physical and tough at the line of scrimmage than we became accustomed to under Lincoln Riley. They're particularly stout up front, with linebacker Danny Stutsman setting the tone, and the back-end has also proven to be incredibly disciplined over the course of the fall. But, the offenses they've seen so far have all been focused on their rushing attack, and Tennessee offers a unique challenge. It will be fascinating to watch the chess match unfold between Heupel and Venables in real time.
There's an extra bit of motivation for Heupel here, as he returns to his alma mater, a school that chased him off as offensive coordinator a decade ago. You better believe he is going to bring out all the tricks in this one, and the way Tennessee has looked early is terrifying prospect for Oklahoma. Even if the Sooners are to succeed in making this one ugly, I'm just not sure there is enough offensive punch the other way to come out on top - the Volunteers just look to be too much.
The Pick: Tennessee, 38 Oklahoma, 24
(#12) Utah Utes @ (#14) Oklahoma State Cowboys
Line: Oklahoma State -2.5
O/U: 52.5
Two of college football's longest tenured head coaches collide in what is now a Big 12 matchup, as Kyle Whittingham and Utah travel to Stillwater to meet up with Mike Gundy and the Cowboys. It should be a hard-fought battle between two teams that have a clear identity and play a similar brand of football - ground-and-pound offensively, and tough defense.
Oklahoma State may have brought back last season's Doak Walker Award winner, Ollie Gordon II, but they haven't been afraid to chuck the ball around so far this fall. Alan Bowman, now in his seventh season of college football, has nearly hit 1,000 yards on the season already and at 334 yards per game, this is among the nation's top passing offenses. Whether that carries over against stronger competition remains to be seen, but it does feel like the Cowboys may still look to throw more than you might expect, considering the opponent. Utah has always been tough up front, and is as good as any defense at the country at defending the line of scrimmage, but the secondary has been lacking in recent years. Bowman and Oklahoma State may have opportunities to stretch this defense vertically, and the trio of De'Zhaun Stribling, Rashod Owens, and Brennan Presley is among the most underrated in the country. Gordon will still almost certainly play a role, but it feels like Oklahoma Sttae may tweak their strategy in advance of this one. Either way, one of the nation's most experienced offensive lines gives them an edge against a ferocious Ute defensive line, perhaps the type of advantage the Cowboys will need to come out on top in what will undoubtedly be a tight one.
What makes this game so difficult to predict is the unclear status around Utah quarterback Cam Rising. Rising, who missed all of last season after sustaining a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl the year prior, and he missed last week's game against Utah State after sustaining a bit hit against Baylor in Week Two. Rising has been cleared to play and it seems as though we will see him go, but neither Whittingham nor Utah in general has been very upfront about his status. It wouldn't surprise if we still see true freshman Isaac Wilson, who was solid against Utah State, but simply doesn't have the type of big game experience Rising brings to the equation. Either way, veteran tailback Micah Bernard and do-it-all Dijon Stanley should help guide the Ute offense in it's usual methodical and consistent way. What type of resistance they'll face this in this Oklahoma State defense remains to be seen. This was expected to be one of the stronger units in the Big 12 this fall, but they've taken their hits so far. The Arkansas game, despite the win, was particularly shocking, as the Cowboys surrendered 648 yards, despite turning the Razorbacks over three times. Arkansas and Utah are vastly different in how they will approach this Cowboy defense, but both are balanced offenses, and the Utes aren't going to take the same types of risks Arkansas does. Unless Oklahoma State figured things out in short order, Utah should be able to move the ball, regardless of who's under center.
This is one of those games that is a true coin flip for me. A full strength Utah team would likely be favored here, even on the road, but Rising's injury makes picking this game a real challenge. But even with all the uncertainty surrounding him, I'm rolling with the Utes. This has looked like a typical Whittingham-coached team through the first three weeks of the season, and should be well-prepared for the Cowboys. If they can force a few turnovers off Bowman with the way the Oklahoma State defense has looked early, that should be just enough.
The Pick: Utah, 27 Oklahoma State, 21
(#11) USC Trojans @ (#18) Michigan Wolverines
Line: USC -4.5
O/U: 43.5
For the first time, USC and Michigan will collide as Big Ten foes, with both teams seemingly heading in opposite directions one month into the season. USC has been a pleasant surprise early, beating LSU in Las Vegas and looking like a genuine contender in their new home. Michigan, meanwhile, has had a less-than-stellar National Title defense and will hope for an offensive spark to avoid a .500 start.
Miller Moss and the rest of the USC offense have built on the huge Holiday Bowl outing last fall, and it's no surprise that a Lincoln Riley-coached offense is moving the ball with such precision early on. Although it's just two games, they're averaging 37.5 points per game, and Moss has 607 yards of passing. The supporting cast around Moss shouldn't be undersold, either, as Woody Marks has provided an important spark out of the backfield and the deep receiver corps has shown out, with everyone getting in on the action. Now, comes their greatest test, potentially of the entire season, in the Michigan Wolverine defense. Even with the losses the Wolverines suffered in the offseason, this remains a stingy group that is going to be physical at all three levels. They aren't going to get beat with the big play that LSU was - the Trojans will need to show they can move the chains without risking turnovers. With all that being said, Texas certainly provided the blueprint of how to move the ball on these guys, making big plays through the air and converting on crucial downs. The Longhorns were beneficiaries of great field positions thanks to a dominant defensive showing, but USC can certainly replicate their performance. Moss has looked in complete command, and I'd argue USC has a better ground game than the Longhorns, at least at this point in the season. Although yardage will still be difficult to come by, that balance should have them move the ball down the field deliberately.
After three weeks, the Davis Warren experiment appears to be over in Ann Arbor. Alex Oriji will be handed over a struggling offense that desperately needed something new after averaging just over 23 points per contest in the few weeks. Orji does give this Michigan offense a new look, providing a running ability that Warren simply doesn't have. That should be enough to keep the Trojan defense honest, but does he have enough of an arm to get this passing offense going? It would certainly help if others beyond tight end Colston Loveland could emerge for the Wolverines, but it just doesn't feel like they have the weapons they had last year. Semaj Morgan is the only other player, with Loveland, to surpass 50 yards receiving total on the year - defenses simply have no reason not to stuff the box against this offense. Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards do provide playmaking ability out of the backfield, and Mullings has been especially impressive, averaging 7.5 yards per carry. But they will face a hungry USC defensive front that's at a whole different level than what they saw last week against Arkansas State. Whether they're still able to move the ball on the ground remains to be seen, particularly with the offensive line still gelling after an offseason of personnel turnover. This just doesn't feel like an advantageous matchup for Michigan with the rapid improvement we've seen on this side of the ball from USC. There was never a shortage of talent on this side of the ball for the Trojans, but coordinator D'Anton Lynn has them playing smart, disciplined football this year - that's a scary prospect for the rest of the Big Ten, and for a struggling Wolverine offense.
Getting the Trojans at home certainly helps and the switch to Orji may just be what Michigan needs to get their season back on track. But through the first several weeks of the season, the Trojans have looked like the far superior team and enter this game without the same types of questions surrounding Michigan. As difficult as it is to beat UM in Ann Arbor, USC becomes the second team to do it this month.
The Pick: USC, 31 Michigan, 21
Other Picks
(#8) Miami Hurricanes @ South Florida Bulls -- One of the most underrated games of the weekend, this one could have some offensive fireworks between two teams that know how to light up the scoreboard. USF will be upset ready at home, but Cam Ward and the 'Canes end up being too much.
The Pick: Miami, 42 South Florida, 24
(#24) Illinois Fighting Illini @ (#22) Nebraska Cornhuskers -- Are the 'Huskers for real? Beating a rock-solid Illinois team, even at home, would go a long way in proving so. This will be a difficult one, but Nebraska looks like a tough matchup in the trenches for the Illini and shut them down offensively.
The Pick: Nebraska, 27 Illinois, 20
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers -- The battle for the Floyd of Rosedale should be another low-scoring affair as both of these offenses look to find their rhythm. Minnesota came out on top in a thriller a year ago, but Kaleb Johnson is a problem and the Gophers aren't 100% defensively. I suspect Iowa gets revenge in what will be a true Big Ten slugfest.
The Pick: Iowa, 17 Minnesota, 14
Upset: Buffalo Bulls @(#23) Northern Illinois Huskies -- NIU is America's darling after their upset win over Notre Dame two weeks ago, but Thomas Hammock's team has a strange history of dropping games they shouldn't. Buffalo has looked to be a capable foe, and something about this one just smells like an upset brewing.
The Pick: Buffalo, 31 Northern Illinois, 28
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Bowling Green Falcons (+22.5) @ Texas A&M Aggies -- Bowling Green going toe-to-toe with Penn State earlier in the year should have showed the country what Scot Loeffler's team is capable of. There's legit athletes on this roster, and they aren't scared of anyone. With the Aggies still trying to figure things out offensively under Mike Elko and Colin Klein, the Falcons have a great chance to cover.
The Pick: Texas A&M, 35 Bowling Green, 14
Lock of the Week: Virginia Cavaliers (-2) @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -- Will Virginia finally be the team to get my 2024 locks going? Despite an underwhelming showing against Maryland last week, Anthony Colandrea and the rest of this UVA offense should be able to do enough to roll past the Chanticleers in this one.
The Pick: Virginia, 31 Coastal Carolina, 17
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