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| Dylan Raiola, Nebraska |
Upsets: 0-1
Superdogs: 0-1
Locks: 0-1
(#3) Texas Longhorns @ (#10) Michigan Wolverines
Line: Texas -7.5
O/U: 42.5
Two of college football's biggest brands collide in Ann Arbor this weekend for just the second trip in their respective histories. The two are coming off different opening week games - Texas took it to Colorado State in a 52-0 victory, while Michigan took their time Fresno State, before coming away with a 30-10 win. But, don't expect that to matter too much when these two take the field Saturday, as this one should come down to the wire.
Michigan's quarterback competition was one of the more intriguing storylines over the offseason and it came as a notable surprise that former walk-on Davis Warren was named the starter over Alex Orji for the opener against Fresno State. Warren wasn't asked to do too much against the Bulldogs and didn't exactly light the world on fire, finishing 15-25 for 168 yards, with a touchdown and an interception. That's likely to be the case all season, with the Wolverines leaning on their ground game that includes Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings. But, this Texas defense represents a whole different animal than the one Warren and Michigan saw on the first weekend. There are NFL athletes at all three levels, but the biggest difference you'll notice with recent Longhorn defenses is the discipline and attitude they play with. No longer is this defense missing tackles or letting up the big play - they get to their spots and fill their gaps as well as anyone in the nation. It feels like Michigan is going to need to change things up or open up the playbook a bit more to effectively move the ball here, especially with the offensive line looking downright bad a week ago. Edwards and Mullings may be capable backs, but the Longhorns will be ready to stack the box until they have a reason not to. Perhaps that means getting Semaj Morgan more involved, or getting tight end Colston Loveland the ball in creative ways? We'll learn about the Wolverine offense quickly in this contest.
The Longhorns had the luxury of resting their starters early on in the second half against Colorado State after building a big lead, so they should be fresh and ready to go on Saturday. Quarterback Quinn Ewers runs the show still, despite Arch Manning coming on and looking impressive in relief, but it does feel like the Longhorns are still working to figure out who among their cast of characters they can lean on at the other skill positions. Isaiah Bond and Johntay Cook II are likely to be key figures on the perimeter, but it will be interesting to see how running back continues to unfold after the injuries in fall camp. Jerrick Gibson and Jaydon Blue were impressive in the opener, but now they face this suffocating Michigan defense. The Wolverines do have plenty of new faces but the core of the defense remains intact, a group that includes future high NFL Draft selections Will Johnson and Mason Graham. They remain a physical, well-coached group that is going to test this Texas offense so early on in the season. This feels like a potential legacy opportunity for Ewers - he's been the type of QB who can show out in some of the biggest games, and then play down to his competition in others. In one of the biggest games of what is almost sure to be his final season in Austin, which Ewers comes out?
Although Texas dominated in the opener and Michigan looked rather unimpressive, I'd argue we shouldn't read too much into Week One results. Both teams are still figuring out their personnel and making adjustments, and I have little doubt the Wolverines will be playing at a whole different level in front of their home crowd. But, I'm just not sure this offense has the weapons to be able to move the ball against the Longhorns, unless they have a few tricks up their sleeves. They feel predictable right now, and the Texas defense will be up for the challenge. Even if the Wolverines slow them down the other way, how many points can we count on them scoring? There's a reason Texas is favored, even walking into a hostile environment of 107,000-plus.
The Pick: Texas, 21 Michigan, 14
(#14) Tennessee Volunteers @ (#24) NC State Wolfpack (Charlotte)
Line: Tennessee -10
O/U: 60.5
Another story of two teams who had vastly different Week One games, and are now meeting up a week later. Tennessee dropped 69 points on Chattanooga and finished with a staggering 718 yards of total offense against the Mocs. NC State, on the other hand, was struggling with Western Carolina deep into the second half before pulling away for a 38-21 victory. What does that mean for these two as they meet up at a neutral site?
If you haven't had a chance to watch Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava, you are in for a real treat. The sophomore signal-caller is one of the most exciting players in all of college football, a player with a rocket arm who can dazzle with his legs, and isn't afraid to take his shots. He's been receiving Heisman hype over the offseason, and throwing for 314 yards and three touchdowns was quite the opener, although he has plenty to prove against better competition. As fun as Nico is, he's far from the only Volunteer who can hurt you defensively, as Dylan Sampson ran for three scores out of the backfield, and the receiver corps features Squirrel White and Bru McCoy. All of that behind a strong offensive line and one of the best play-callers in the game in Josh Heupel? It's understandable why Tennessee fans believe 2024 could be a special season in Knoxville. But, a word of caution in this one - NC State has always been a defense able to force turnovers and take advantage, Tony Gibson is one of the best coordinators in the game at doing so. You can imagine him throwing some interesting looks at the young quarterback and forcing him to make difficult throws. And for all of Nico's talent, he is still a quarterback playing in major college football without much experience, it's understandable if there are mistakes made. If the Wolfpack can do just enough defensively and force a big takeaway or two, that could certainly swing the tide of this one.
NC State boasts quite a fun offense themselves, with former Coastal Carolina legend Grayson McCall now running the show at QB. He doesn't have the natural arm talent of Iamaleava, but he's a dual threat who shouldn't be intimidated by this SEC defense. He has plenty of weapons around him, too, with Jordan Waters in the backfield and one of the best young receivers in college football in Kevin Concepcion, who caught three touchdown passes in the season-opening victory. The Wolfpack will be a bit more methodical than the Volunteers, not taking as much chances but looking to play smart, lower risk football. With that being said, Tennessee is going to look to speed them up and disrupt their rhythm with what coordinator Tim Banks likes to do. He loves to blitz all day long, whether it's first down, or third and short, and he has one of the best defenders in the sport helping him in James Pearce Jr. The NC State offensive line did a fine job in the opener, but this is going to be a different challenge for them. How they are able to handle what the Vols throw at them may just decide them, no matter how impressive McCall is at improvising.
This is actually a very tough one for me to pick - I'm very high on NC State this year, and think they actually match up pretty well with the Vols. They also get Tennessee in Charlotte in what is about as much of a home game as you can call a neutral site game. Yet, I just think Tennessee is too much and Iamaleava gives them that extra edge to get over the top across four quarters.
The Pick: Tennessee, 38 NC State, 34
Colorado Buffaloes @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
Line: Nebraska -7
O/U: 56.5
Former Big 12 rivals clash in Lincoln in one of the most interesting games of the second weekend. Colorado got all they could handle from North Dakota State last Thursday but managed to survive, and has a chance to build some early season momentum, which will be important for them considering the back-half of their schedule. Nebraska obliterated UTEP in front of the home crowd in Dylan Raiola's first start, and has the fans excited about what they could accomplish this year.
Nebraska fans have been waiting for Raiola all offseason, and his first start only added to the hype surrounding the former five-star prospect. He looked in complete control against the Miners, throwing for throwing for 238 yards and two touchdowns, before sitting a big chunk of the second half. To their credit, the Cornhusker offense did a great job scheming things up for the true freshman, and he also benefitted from his supporting cast playing very well. Isaiah Neyor is finally healthy and looks like he will be a difference-maker in 2024, while the ground game moved the ball effectively behind this offensive line. Will they be able to carry that over into a tougher matchup against this Colorado defense? The Buffaloes may not be as stout on this side of the ball as others, but there is legit power conference talent on this roster, beyond just Travis Hunter. They may have taken their lumps against North Dakota State, but had over a week to prepare for this one, so they have to hoping for progress.
Colorado's strength is undoubtedly on the offensive side of the ball, and that group showed out in Week One. They totaled 504 yards of offense, with Shedeur Sanders account for 462 of that as he slung the ball all over the field. With Sanders and Jimmy Horn Jr. and Hunter on the outside, there's little doubt Colorado is going to lean on their passing attack and look to attack Nebraska vertically. But, that was much the same strategy UTEP was going for a week ago and aside from a bust in the first quarter, the 'Huskers played airtight defense. Certainly the Buffaloes boast superior athletes on the outside than UTEP, but I still believe they have to have some semblance of offensive balance if they are to pull an upset here. Dallan Hayden struggled to get things going at tailback and Colorado couldn't get much push in the trenches against NDSU. Unfortunately, Nebraska is going to be an even tougher challenge, with Ty Robinson and Nash Hutmacher are bulldozers on the interior D-Line and should be extra hungry in a rivalry game. At the very least, Colorado is going to be fresh up front, but this is the type of spot where Nebraska has such a clear edge it's hard for me to think Colorado can still find a way to come out victorious.
It's no secret that I find Colorado and Deion Sanders... irritating, to say the least. But, there's not even that much bias coming into this pick - Nebraska is just the better football team top-to-bottom. Even if Raiola has struggles early on as he adjusts to the moment, the 'Huskers should have no issues moving the ball against this soft Buffalo defense, and Tony White should be able to draw up the right defensive gameplan the other way. Add in the fact this in Lincoln, I'm taking Nebraska all day long here.
The Pick: Nebraska, 38 Colorado, 24
Other Picks
(#17) Kansas State Wildcats @ Tulane Green Wave -- It's hard to know much about either of these teams after they both cruised to blowout Week One victories. But, Kansas State has an edge in quarterback with Avery Johnson and should be ready to overcome on the road.
The Pick: Kansas State, 31 Tulane, 21
Boise State Broncos @ (#7) Oregon Ducks -- The Ducks didn't exactly light it up over the first weekend, but this remains an offense loaded with weapons. That's a problem for a Boise State defense that surrendered 45 points and 461 yards to Georgia Southern.
The Pick: Oregon, 45 Boise State, 21
Arkansas Razorbacks @ (#16) Oklahoma State Cowboys -- Oklahoma State had no issues with South Dakota State this past Saturday, but they welcome a potentially difficult foe now in Arkansas. The new Razorback offense looked crisp in blowing out Arkansas Pine-Bluff, but they don't have a difference-maker like Ollie Gordon II on their side.
The Pick: Oklahoma State, 28 Arkansas, 24
Upset: (#19) Kansas Jayhawks @ Illinois Fighting Illini -- Jalon Daniels started things slow in the opener, which was expected considering he's still working his way back to 100 percent, but the upset-ready Illini could take advantage if their power-run offense takes advantage of an edge in the trenches.
The Pick: Illinois, 27 Kansas, 24
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Northern Illinois Huskies (+29) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- Potentially letdown spot here for Notre Dame after a hard-fought victory in College Station. Northern Illinois QB Ben Hampton against this Notre Dame secondary should be a good one, but Huskies have a chance to cover this spread.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 35 Northern Illinois, 7
Lock of the Week: (#21) Iowa Hawkeyes (-2) vs. Iowa State Cyclones -- Even if the new-look Hawkeye offense takes time to get going against a power conference foe, this is a program to trust in this rivalry. Add in the fact Abu Sama is banged up, I like this one in Iowa City.
The Pick: Iowa, 21 Iowa State, 10
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