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| Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss |
Current Picks Record: 37-26
Upset: 2-5
Superdogs: 4-2
Locks: 4-4
(#5) Ole Miss Rebels @ (#9) Georgia Bulldogs
Line: Georgia -7.5
O/U: 54.5
While there is still so much left to be figured out in the SEC race, Ole Miss finds themselves in great position as near the home stretch of October. The Rebels are off to a 3-0 start in the league, with an impressive win over LSU. But now is when we learn just how good this team really is, with back-to-back road games against ranked foes, starting with the mighty Georgia Bulldogs in Sanford Stadium.
It's not an exaggeration to say the entire trajectory of the season for Ole Miss changed when Ferris State transfer Trinidad Chambliss took over as starting quarterback. Sophomore Austin Simmons was expected to be the team's breakout star, but injuries forced Chambliss into a larger role, and neither he nor the Rebels have looked back since. He finds himself in the Heisman conversation at the season's midway point, leading an always-explosive Rebel offense. The ability of Chambliss to create with his legs, even more so than Jaxson Dart the last several years, has forced defenses into quite a bind. If they sell out to contain him, there are enough weapons on the perimeter for this offense to win on big plays alone. The personnel around him certainly helps - this may not be the best Ole Miss receiver corps since Lane Kiffin took over, but it certainly feels like the deepest. Harrison Wallace III and Deuce Alexander have been the top pass-catchers, but the emergence of Dae'Quan Wright at tight end, and the abundance of weapons beyond that trio give this offense so much explosiveness and big play potential deep into games. It creates an interesting matchup for a Georgia defense that has been good so far this year, but not quite at the standard we've come to expect from Kirby Smart coached teams. It just doesn't feel like this Bulldog defense has the usual collection of stars we've come to expect, and they've suffered more breakdowns on the back-end than is usual. Yet, my greatest key to the game may come on third down, where Ole Miss is Top 20 in the country, while Georgia has struggled to get off the field. If Georgia can win the most important downs, and limit the magic Chambliss is able to create, they absolutely can win at home. But, Lane and the rest of this Rebels team have been on fire for so much of the season, they have to be relishing the opportunity for another massive victory.
It's been all about balance for the Georgia offense so far this season. Quarterback Gunner Stockton has made some big throws but he hasn't been putting up gaudy stats, instead playing a brand of football that feels reminiscent of the Jake Fromm team back in 2017. That has always been the bread-and-butter for Kirby, setting things up with the run and doing just enough through the air to come out victorious. The thing is, the rush offense has been very unlike Georgia over these last couple years, even if it does appear to be gathering some momentum in recent weeks. Redshirt freshman Chauncey Bowens has taken over as the lead back and given this ground game some much-needed pop, but consistency remains an issue. He looked the part against Alabama, rushing for 119 yards and a score, but has been held in check in recent weeks. Is this the matchup to get him rolling again? Sophomore Nate Frazier, who I had pegged as a breakout candidate, has been quieter than expected early on, managing just 24 yards on ten carries last week in the Auburn win. I'm not even sure the rushing issues are solely to blame on the backs - the offensive line hasn't been quite as good and expected, and it does feel like teams have been willing to stack the box against Stockton. He's going to have to make some big throws in this game, which we've seen do before, with the Tennessee game coming to mind right away. But, can Stockton make those throws more regularly, throughout the contest? If so, this team might just have what they need to open things up and give Ole Miss a defensive challenge they haven't quite had for much of the season.
It has not felt like a vintage Georgia team up to this point in the season - they could easily have three losses at this point. But, as Kirby's teams often do, they have found ways to win games. I sort of feel like that's how this one will play out, too. They've had an entire year to prepare for an Ole Miss team that embarrassed them a season ago, and this Georgia staff is still one of the best in the country. They should have the right defense schemed up to contain Chambliss and if the offense can find some semblance of explosiveness, I like their chances even more.
The Pick: Georgia, 31 Ole Miss, 28
(#11) Tennessee Volunteers @ (#6) Alabama Crimson Tide
Line: Alabama -8.5
O/U: 59.5
Another rendition of the "Third Saturday in October" rivalry this weekend, and the stakes are high for this one. Both Tennessee and Alabama find themselves in a good spot as things stand in mid-October, but a second loss at this point in the year, with plenty of SEC football yet to remain, could be costly as both vie for a College Football Playoff berth.
To me, Ty Simpson should be the clear Heisman frontrunner at this point in the season. Any quarterback on a winning Alabama team is probably going to be in contention for the award, but Simpson has made some truly gutsy, pro-level throws during Alabama's win streak. Since the Florida State loss, he's felt like a man on a mission, and has run the gauntlet during a very difficult stretch of games. Of course, it does help that he has one of the country's best receiver corps around him, but it's been an interesting year for Crimson Tide receivers. Ryan Williams was expected to be the sophomore superstar, but it's been Germie Bernard who has taken up the mantle as the real alpha in the room. Add in Isaiah Horton and Lotzeir Brooks, this is a deep and talented room that can blow the doors of opposing foes. It almost feels like the fact Williams has been held in check for much of the season makes this team scarier. We've seen him take over games before, and it seems like it's only a matter of time before we have a signature game from him, and this game would certainly present that stage. What I also notice about this Alabama passing game is just how well they take care of the football. Even with the fact they're willing to take their shots down the field, Simpson's decision-making has been on point all season long. Against a defense like Tennessee's, which thrives on pressuring the quarterback and forcing turnovers, that becomes extra important. And, even more be placed on Simpson and company's shoulders again this week with the issues at running back. Jam Miller's status has been a storyline all season long after he missed the early fall, and then was ruled out for the finish of the Missouri game. He's now probable, but likely in a reduced capacity and while Kevin Riley has filled in admirably, it's likely going to be through the air that Alabama focuses on in this game.
Since losing to Georgia, Tennessee has responded with three straight victories, albeit several of them in close fashion. The offense does not appear to be a question, moving the ball without much difficulties and managing 41 against Mississippi State and 34 against Arkansas. Instead it's been the defense that has struggled, which means the Volunteers may have to be prepared for another shootout in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Quarterback Joey Aguilar has been a clear upgrade over Nico Iamaleava, providing Tennessee the type of signal-caller they need to run this veer-and-shoot offense effectively. Aguilar may not have the arm talent of other top SEC quarterbacks, but he's played with poise all season long and his ability to take care of the ball has been huge for extending possessions. It does feel like Tennessee's receivers are also more dynamic than last year's group, led by Chris Brazzell II and Mike Matthews, which has allowed this high-flying offense to flourish through the air in a way we didn't see last fall. It's been mostly a committee approach in the backfield for the Vols, although it does look as though DeSean Bishop is really asserting himself as the guy moving forward. He's fresh off a 146-yard, one touchdown performance against Arkansas, and has to be relishing the opportunity to show what he can do against this Crimson Tide defensive front. I am very curious to see how Kane Wommack and the rest of this Alabama defense choose to play this one. They clearly sold out against the run last weekend versus Missouri and made Beau Pribula beat them, a strategy that worked out. This Tennessee offense feels more balanced, and we've seen what Aguilar can do, even against good SEC defenses. You have to believe Wommack and company are planning to bring the heat, so Tennessee's offensive line has to be ready to go.
We saw Tennessee go toe-to-toe with Georgia for an entire four quarters and come up just short - can they close the deal this time against one of the league's other elites? I'm just not sure they have the defense to do so, as the group has been downright bad against weaker competition, and now faces an Alabama team that is on fire. Perhaps if they can force a few turnovers this game swings, but the Tide are still the right pick in the confines of Bryant-Denny Stadium.
The Pick: Alabama, 42 Tennessee, 31
Other Picks
(#10) LSU Tigers @ (#17) Vanderbilt Commodores -- Even in Nashville, it comes as a bit of a surprise to see Vanderbilt favored. LSU is the more talented team, but can they finally play up to their potential? This feels like a very important game for Brian Kelly and his future in Baton Rouge.
The Pick: LSU, 34 Vanderbilt, 27
(#20) USC Trojans @ (#13) Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- This one should be all about offense, as both teams come into the weekend firing on all cylinders on that side of the ball. Notre Dame seems to be figuring things out defensively and may have just what they need to slow down Jayden Maiava - and win the game.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 38 USC, 35
(#23) Utah Utes @ (#15) BYU Cougars -- All eyes will be on the SEC and USC-Notre Dame rivalry, but this is the game I'm most excited about this weekend. The "Holy War" is always a battle, and both teams have started out the year strong. However, BYU got all they could handle from Arizona last weekend and may still be licking their wounds. Even on the road, I like the Utes to win this edition of the rivalry game.
The Pick: Utah, 28 BYU, 20
Louisville Cardinals @ (#2) Miami Hurricanes -- Miami does not face a ranked team the rest of the year, but this has long been a program that occasionally lays eggs late in the year. Will that happen in this Friday night clash? Louisville is a tough foe, but I'm not sure they have the blockers up front to keep Miami from wreaking havoc in their backfield.
The Pick: Miami, 27 Louisville, 17
Upset: (#12) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Duke Blue Devils -- I've been close on my last several upset selections, but have missed. Yet, I feel good about this one - Georgia Tech has been an awesome story, and they're a genuine Playoff contender. But, someone is going to get them, and Duke has been playing quite well the last few weeks.
The Pick: Duke, 31 Georgia Tech, 21
Double Upset: (#7) Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Arizona State Sun Devils -- There's been some surprises in the Big 12 this year, but it still feels like the league is missing its chaotic energy a bit. This week may deliver it, as I have an Arizona State team with a healthy Sam Leavitt toppling the Red Raiders in Tempe.
The Pick: Arizona State, 34 Texas Tech, 30
Lock of the Week: Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions -- It's easy to pick on Penn State right now, but this offense has been downright bad for much of the year, and now Drew Allar is hurt. Iowa is the last time they want to play right now with what they do defensively, and the fact it's in Kinnick? I sense an ugly Hawkeye win.
The Pick: Iowa, 17 Penn State, 10
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