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| Dante Moore, Oregon |
Current Picks Record: 34-20
Upset: 2-4
Superdogs: 4-1
Locks: 4-3
(#7) Indiana Hoosiers @ (#3) Oregon Ducks
Line: Oregon -7.5
O/U: 55.5
Until they're knocked off their pedestal, Ohio State remains the team to beat in the Big Ten. However, both Oregon and Indiana are breathing right down their necks inside the league - and one will assert themselves as the top challenger after this weekend. Oregon's resume took a slight hit with Penn State's shocking loss last weekend, but the Ducks remain formidable. On the other side, Indiana has looked even better than last fall, and would love nothing more than a signature win in Autzen Stadium.
Indiana got a much-needed week off this past Saturday after surviving a scary trip to Iowa City the week prior. There wasn't anything necessarily pretty about the Hoosier win over the Hawkeyes, but they're the type of wins you have to have sometimes in this conference. The offense, especially the passing game, has been playing tremendous ball, thanks in large part to the addition of Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza has been the downfield passer Kurtis Rourke wasn't a year ago, giving this team real verticality in what they can do to opposing defenses. Elijah Sarratt and company have been quite the complements out wide, arguably the best group of pass-catchers Oregon has seen up to this point in the young season. My question is for the Hoosiers comes with their running game, which had a rough outing against Iowa (2.7 YPC) and faces quite the test in Oregon here. Not having a ton of success against Phil Parker's defense is a common concern, but we saw just how effective the Duck front can be when they shut down Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton for much of their matchup with Penn State. Oregon has always had talent, but it feels like this year's defense is playing at an entirely different level with their instincts and how quickly they can swarm to the ball. Mendoza has been a great quarterback to this point in the season, but have we seen him need to carry an offense in a hostile road environment quite like this? The last time he faced the Ducks, his Golden Bears were shredded to the tune of 63-10 in a game in which he was fairly quiet, going 18-34 for 177 yards. Obviously this Indiana is a much different breed than 2023 Cal, but I'd argue this Oregon defense is also at a different level.
Following last season, it was the expectation that Oregon's offense was going to be led by wide out Evan Stewart, who spurned the NFL for another year in Eugene, and Tulane transfer Makhi Hughes at tailback. This offense has been even better than expected - with neither of those making any sort of impact. Now, to be fair, Stewart has been hurt and may not return at all this fall, while the Hughes situation remains baffling to me. He's barely seen in the field and the expectation now is that he will likely redshirt and play elsewhere in 2026. That hasn't been an issue for Will Stein and the Ducks, who are averaging 47 PPG with a very balanced offense. Quarterback Dante Moore has been tremendous taking control of this offense from veteran Dillon Gabriel, and the rest of the supporting cast is full of playmakers. Freshman receiver Dakorien Moore has been a sensation, tight end Kenyon Sadiq is a matchup problem, and this may be the deepest stable of running backs anywhere in the country. It's become so clear just how much of a machine Dan Lanning and his staff have built here. Their second and third players on the depth chart are so much better than most teams in this league, and in the country. You add it all behind a strong offensive line, it's no surprise Oregon dropped 30 points and 424 yards against the highest paid defensive coordinator in the nation in Happy Valley two weeks ago. But, what separates this offense to me, and what may hurt Indiana the most in having to defend them? How well they take care of the football. Lanning is an aggressive coach, but this offense makes the most of every possession, and their depth allows them fresh legs later into ball games. For an Indiana team that has relied so heavily on earning the turnover advantage during the Curt Cignetti years, if they can't force Moore into a mistake or two, it's going to be difficult to keep up.
Indiana has answered a lot of doubters who thought 2024 was a fluke, and this is most certainly a legitimate College Football Playoff contender. Yet, Oregon just feels like a machine at this point, and you have to play them at home. The Hoosiers will still give a battle, but I think the Ducks pull away in the second half and leave the weekend with a comfortable victory.
The Pick: Oregon, 34 Indiana, 17
(#8) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#14) Missouri Tigers
Line: Alabama -3.5
O/U: 51.5
Oklahoma-Texas was supposed to be the most crucial game of the weekend in the SEC, but the Longhorns upset loss to Florida spoiled that idea. Instead, the most consequential game of the Saturday in the conference is now happening in Columbia, Missouri, with Alabama coming to town. The Tigers have feasted on a weak schedule and are now looking to secure their biggest win of the year. Alabama has recovered in impressive fashion from the Florida State loss, and is starting to look like vintage 'Bama. What better way to get things rolling early in Week Seven than this game?
While the Penn State offense struggles, one of their former quarterbacks just so happens to be playing some great football in Columbia, Missouri. Senior Beau Pribula is making the most of his opportunity, throwing for 1,203 yards and five touchdowns over the first five starts of his career, leading a Missouri offense that is absolutely on fire. It's certainly helped that his backfield mate, Ahmad Hardy, has been equally impressive running for 730 yards himself and averaging over seven yards per carry. The Tigers have just made it look easy - and it hasn't been just about feasting on poor defenses either. Simply look at the South Carolina game, when their rushing attack ran all over the Gamecocks, with the Tigers finishing with 456 yards and a staggering 29 first downs. Pribula's legs add a really interesting element to this offense, giving them a shifty runner who isn't afraid to be physical. With him and Hardy, Missouri has just enough to draw defenses in, while playmakers like Kevin Coleman Jr. and Marquis Johnson make things happen over the top. I'm very curious to see how Alabama, and more specifically defensive coordinator Kane Wommack, ends up playing it. This Tide defense has been exceptional against the pass in the early going but if there is a concern I have, it's about how they stop the run. Fortunately, the duo of Justin Jefferson and Deontae Lawson provide plenty of range at the linebacker spot, and the defensive line has been getting healthier. I think they have an edge in the trenches here against Missouri, even if completely containing the skill position talent will be no easy feat.
This has been a completely different Alabama team since the season-opener and it starts at quarterback with Ty Simpson. Simpson had his fair share of struggles against the Seminoles, being late on several passes and not looking comfortable in the slightest. It seems like he's settled in, and he is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Of course, it does happen to help that this Tide supporting cast also just might be among the best anywhere in all of the land. We all know about Ryan Williams, but it's been Germie Bernard doing the most damage at receiver, given Ryan Grubb's trust in him. Just as important has been an Alabama ground game that appears to be finding itself, with a healthy Jam Miller running hard behind an offensive line that gets better each and every week. Speaking of offensive line, are we going to see a Kadyn Proctor screen pass this weekend? Likely not something we'll see very often, but it's a great example of how much more creative and interesting this offense has become under Grubb as play-caller. There's never any shortage of talent here at a place like Alabama, but it does feel like a group that's really found its rhythm and is playing with a confidence it didn't have last fall. On the flip side, Missouri's defense comes into this game on fire, surrendering under 15 points per game on the year. In even the games where they surrendered the most points, like Kansas and South Carolina, they held both to under 300 yards and made each work for every yard. As long as they don't allow the big play, which is always a threat against Alabama-coached teams, you can imagine them turning this into a ground-and-pound battle.
Alabama enters this game as the more proven team, but could that be a bad thing? The Tide have already faced quite a brutal stretch and even playing the way they have, you always wonder how the physicality of the SEC will play out over long periods of time. Going into Columbia to face a Missouri team riding high is a whole different challenge itself. Yet at the same time, I find it hard to pick against the mighty Crimson Tide with the way they have been playing. They're beginning to look a bit like vintage Alabama, which is a terrifying proposition for the rest of the SEC - and the country more broadly.
The Pick: Alabama, 30 Missouri, 24
Other Picks
(#6) Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas Longhorns -- Red River is always a good one, and this year's matchup is particularly intriguing given the mystery over John Mateer's health. Even if he doesn't go or isn't 100%, this Sooner defense is among the best in the country, and has all the pieces in place to shut down a struggling Longhorn offense.
The Pick: Oklahoma, 24 Texas, 16
(#1) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#17) Illinois Fighting Illini -- The conversations are beginning - is this Ohio State team even better than last year's National Champion crew? The defense certainly looks like it, and I'm not convinced Illinois has the weapons to score enough points for an upset.
The Pick: Ohio State, 28 Illinois, 14
(#15) Michigan Wolverines @ USC Trojans -- This is a road game for a Michigan team that still has a young QB, but I'm still a bit surprised the Trojans are favored. Bryce Underwood seems to be getting better each week, and the Wolverines should have enough to slow down Makai Lemon on the perimeter.
The Pick: Michigan, 31 USC, 28
(#10) Georgia Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers -- Don't be surprised if Georgia is on upset alert. Auburn has played tough in both of their losses, but just haven't had the offense to come out victorious. They're a much better team than .500, but they may just not have the points again here at home.
The Pick: Georgia, 27 Auburn, 17
Upset: (#18) BYU Cougars @ Arizona Wildcats -- Sure, this may now be a Big 12 conference game, but it's giving serious "Pac-12 After Dark" energy. BYU has looked good against a soft schedule to this point, but they're banged up at linebacker, a real concern against Ismail Mahdi and the Wildcats.
The Pick: Arizona, 34 BYU, 31
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): NC State Wolfpack (+24) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- NC State appears to be a middle-of-the-pack team in the ACC this year, but the offense has some juice. Quarterback C.J. Bailey is quietly having a great season, and we've seen this Irish defense struggle to defend the pass. This could be a shootout in South Bend.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 45 NC State, 31
Lock of the Week: Penn State Nittany Lions (-20.5) vs. Northwestern Wildcats -- I know this is a tough line to play, but James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have every incentive to come out and run up the score on Northwestern. This is still a good football team regardless of their record, and I think they give the home crowd a show.
The Pick: Penn State, 49 Northwestern, 17
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