 |
| Cade Klubnik, Clemson |
(#14) Clemson Tigers @ (#1) Georgia Bulldogs (Atlanta)
Line: Georgia -13.5
O/U: 48.5
Two of college football's premier programs in the last decade collide in Atlanta to kick off the 2024 college football season. Despite their success, these two seem to be going in opposite directions - Georgia may not have been able to pull off the historic three-peat in 2023, but looks to still be firing on all cylinders entering the fall. Clemson, who won a pair of National Titles in the 2010s and played for two more, is out to prove they still belong in the National Title conversation with three or more losses each of the last three years.
This Georgia team is going to look and play different than what we've come to know them under Kirby Smart. With Carson Beck under center, the Bulldogs are not going to be afraid to test this Clemson secondary over-the-top, and there's enough versatility in this receiver corps to use the entire field. Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey may be gone, but look for names like Dominic Lovett, Arian Smith, and Colbie Young to ensure there's no drop-off for this aerial attack this fall. If that's not enough Georgia should still be able to lean on their usual power-rushing attack with the addition of Trevor Etienne and a healthy Branson Robinson. Teams simply aren't going to be able to stack the box against Beck's arm, and that's going to provide ample opportunities for this offense to pound the rock, particularly later in games once fatigue sets in. It will be interesting to see how Clemson is able to counter the other way. This defensive front is still at peak Clemson levels, with a host of future NFL defensive linemen and one of the best linebackers in the game today, Barrett Carter. It's going to be an absolute bloodbath in the trenches, and watching the chess match between Mike Bobo and Georgia versus Wes Goodwin and Clemson will be worth the watch alone. It's the secondary where my concerns lie with the Tigers, and they've been prone to the big play in recent years - with the way Beck finished 2023, that has to be the biggest advantage for Georgia on this side of the ball.
Was another offseason all Garrett Riley and Cade Klubnik needed to work out their differences after an up-and-down 2023? In many ways, it should have been expected that a young QB would struggle with a new play-caller, but the Tigers will need more from this offense if they have hopes of retaking the ACC this year. The reviews from the offseason for Klubnik have been good, but he faces quite the test to kick off the season against a strong Georgia defense. This is a group that may not quite have the star power of previous Bulldog defenses, but is as fast and athletic as anything we've seen Kirby Smart and staff put out. They're particularly good in the secondary, where safety Malaki Starks can change the game on just about every snap. For Clemson to win, Klubnik will need to take care of the ball, and he'll need help from a receiver group that was wildly inconsistent last season. Being without workhorse tailback Will Shipley is also a cause for concern. Although Phil Mafah should be able to handle the load, Shipley consistently got this Clemson offense out of tight spots throughout his time with the program. Do they have that type of consistent, clutch playmaker that can move the chains on this roster? Perhaps, but they'll still be identifying who it is as they suit up for this one.
There's been a lot of negativity surrounding Clemson throughout the offseason, but I think this one may be a reminder to college football fans everywhere this is still a program loaded with talent. They match up in the trenches against Georgia much better than a lot of SEC teams, and the skill positions have some real weapons. But, Beck gives Georgia an edge over Klubnik and the Tigers, at least until we see it from Klubnik in a big game like this. Add to the fact this is about as much of a home game as you can get for a neutral site contest for UGA, you have to roll with the Bulldogs here.
The Pick: Georgia, 31 Clemson, 21
(#7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ (#20) Texas A&M Aggies
Line: Texas A&M -3
O/U: 46.5
The Mike Elko era begins in College Station this weekend, and what better way to get it started than welcoming a Top 10 team Notre Dame team to town? But the storylines here go far beyond it just being a matchup of Top 20 teams. Elko faces his former quarterback from his time at Duke, Riley Leonard, who is now ND's starter, and faces off against a program that he was once defensive coordinator for. Does that knowledge help him spring an upset?
Riley Leonard dealt with an injury-plagued 2023 for Duke, but is 100 percent and ready to go for the Irish in this one. The casual college football fan may not know much about Leonard, but this could be a coming out party for the dual-threat QB. He's an explosive athlete with a real competitive streak in him - don't expect him to take it easy on his former coach. Now, it will be interesting to see who else emerges around Leonard, as the Irish offensive personnel is set to look quite a bit different this fall. Sophomore Jeremiyah Love is likely to get the first crack at tailback but it's likely we see a committee approach, while ND is hopeful one of these receivers steps up, namely Clemson transfer Beaux Collins or sophomore Jaden Greathouse. Tight end Mitchell Evans is also going to be a matchup problem for the Aggies, a big, physical presence who moves much better than his size would suggest at 6'5", 250 pounds. It has to be a tough matchup for A&M considering there just isn't much tape to work off of for the Irish, especially with a new coordinator calling plays. You'd imagine they'll look to dial up the pressure and get Leonard off-balance early, but he's at his best when he's improvising. How Notre Dame handles the A&M pass rush could be a deciding factor - this is a talented O-Line, but there's no Joe Alt this year. Look for true freshman Antoine Knapp to be making his first collegiate start against 100,000-plus in Kyle Field, with Nic Scourton and Shemar Turner on the other side of things.
As much question as there is surrounding Notre Dame's offense entering 2024, there are similar questions about A&M, too. We do know Conner Weigman is going to be their starter, but he also missed most of 2023 with injury, and will be working with his third offensive coordinator since he began his Aggie career. We've seen Weigman's potential in short spurts with A&M, but he just hasn't seen enough snaps for there to be overwhelming confidence heading into this one. He'll also have to make do with a new-look receiver corps, and a backfield that took a major hit when Rueben Owens was lost for the year, even if Amari Daniels and Le'Veon Moss have proven they can handle the load. This is not going to be an easy test against this Irish defense. On the contrary, Al Golden has to be super excited about facing a young quarterback with this secondary, which includes one of the game's best corners in Benjamin Morrison and ultra-rangy safety Xavier Watts. Certainly you would imagine the Aggies will look to keep it on the ground early and often, but this Notre Dame has never been an easy team to run on, and they should be extra hungry for this one, even on the road.
I'm extremely high on Notre Dame this year, perhaps to an irrational extent considering the turnover on this roster. Leonard feels like the right piece for them offensively and the defense should keep them in games regardless as the offense gets its legs under them. Even going on the road in a hostile environment against a tough A&M team, I like the Irish to squeak out a victory. They shouldn't be overwhelmed by the moment, and it feels like only a matter of time before Marcus Freeman finds a way to win one of these big, close games here.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 24 Texas A&M, 17
(#23) USC Trojans @ (#13) LSU Tigers (Las Vegas)
Line: -4
O/U: 64.5
Life in the Big Ten begins for USC this fall, but first? A date with LSU at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas for what should be an exciting Sunday night duel. Both programs have to feel as though they have something to prove after disappointing 2023 seasons, but only one can come out with a victory and start 2024 with much-needed momentum.
There will be a new quarterback under center for Lincoln Riley and the Trojans, with Miller Moss set to take control after throwing for six touchdowns in the Holiday Bowl victory last December. Moss has waited his turn and will now be able to enjoy having complete command of a Riley-coached offense, but USC will need others to step up around him. They were hit hard by defections at receiver and in the backfield, meaning this entire offense is going to be figuring things out in Las Vegas. Certainly there's talent, with dynamic weapons like Zachariah Branch and Duce Robinson looking to show what they can do, but it's fair to wonder if there may be some rust in Week One as the Trojans figure things out. The good news for them is that they face an LSU defense with just as many questions. Brian Kelly shuffled his defensive staff after this unit fell apart down the stretch last fall, and now Blake Baker comes over from Missouri looking to turn things around as defensive coordinator. The thing is, there's plenty of talent and star-power on this side of the ball - from Harold Perkins to Sage Ryan. But, the Tigers were completely undisciplined in 2023 and were atrocious at the cornerback position, with teams picking them apart through the air. They've worked to shore up the secondary in a major way, but Riley is simply not the coach you want to be facing when you have questions on the back-end. He's an absolute tactician at exploiting weaknesses in pass defense, and should be able to find creative ways to get his Trojan playmakers in space.
It's a new-look offense for LSU, too, after they said goodbye to Jayden Daniels, top rusher Logan Diggs, and top two receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas. Still, the coaching staff appears high on what they have returning, namely quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who, much like Moss, waited his turn at LSU. Nussmeier isn't going to use his legs in the ways Daniels did but has elite arm talent - he caused quite a stir himself when he threw for nearly 400 yards in their bowl win last season. The skill positions are still question marks in many ways but this is LSU after all, and they should have little issue finding weapons to emerge. All of that operating behind an offensive line that boasts arguably the best tackle combination in college football today in Will Campbell and Emery Jones, is exactly where they want to be. In fact, it's that physicality and edge in the trenches that LSU has to feed into if they are to come out with a win. They are a much more aggressive team at the point of attack than USC, even if that has been an area of focus for the Trojans. This is a USC defense that has just looked soft throughout the Riley era, and despite their changes, I'm not sure that's something you can flip in an offseason. Beyond Bear Alexander, I do fear the Trojans get pushed around for 60 minutes on this side of the ball.
These two teams are incredibly similar as they enter the 2024 season. They both have young quarterbacks who have shown flashes, but are still acclimating to their new roles, and defenses that are coming off frustrating years. Despite the similarities, I have much more confidence in what LSU is at this point, even with the offensive departures. They seem to have a more cohesive identity at this point and their superiority in the trenches should be a deciding factor so early on in the season. Unless Moss can recreate his Holiday Bowl magic, I like the Bayou Bengals to start the year off with a victory.
The Pick: LSU, 38 USC, 27
Other Picks
(#8) Penn State Nittany Lions @ West Virginia Mountaineers -- It's not the "Backyard Brawl" but this should be a fun border battle between these two. West Virginia had a knack for winning close games last year and get Penn State at home, but a hungry Nittany Lion defense is too much for them to handle.
The Pick: Penn State, 28 West Virginia, 17
North Carolina Tar Heels @ Minnesota Golden Gophers -- About as much of a coin flip as you can get here. UNC won this game in Chapel Hill a year ago, but there's no Drake Maye to carve up the Gopher secondary this year. Perhaps the bias is coming into play, but I like the Gophers to squeak out a hard-fought victory in front of the home crowd.
The Pick: Minnesota, 20 North Carolina, 14
Upset: Florida Gators over (#19) Miami Hurricanes -- All the talk surrounding Florida this offseason has been about their schedule, and there's no denying it's brutal. But, this has the makings of a good football team, with a capable veteran quarterback under center and improving defense. Even on the road, I trust them more than Miami, who is a complete mystery until we see it more consistently from Mario Cristobal.
The Pick: Florida, 26 Miami, 21
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): UTEP Miners (+28) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers -- Even if you believe this is finally the Nebraska breakout year, this is Dylan Raiola's first college start after all. With some early game jitters, I wouldn't be surprised if UTEP keeps this close enough into the second half.
The Pick: Nebraska, 35 UTEP, 10
Lock of the Week: UCLA Bruins (-13) @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -- No tougher pick than the Week One lock, with so many of these teams a complete mystery. I don't see UCLA having a great year, but they have a veteran offense and own the edge in the trenches in this one - they should be able to win by two or more touchdowns.
The Pick: UCLA, 41 Hawaii, 17
No comments:
Post a Comment