College Football Picks 2025: Week Ten

Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati

Current Picks Record: 47-34

Upset: 3-7

Superdogs: 4-3

Locks: 5-5

(#17) Cincinnati Bearcats @ (#24) Utah Utes

Line: Utah -10.5

O/U: 54.5

They still have not received the national attention they deserve, prior to his week, but Cincinnati finds themselves in great position in the Big 12 Title race and as a bonafide CFB Playoff contender. The Bearcats are 7-1 and their lone loss came in the season-opener, against Nebraska at a neutral site. Yet, this week will tell us a lot about just how legit the Bearcats are, as they travel to Salt Lake City to meet up with Utah. Fresh off a blowout win over Colorado, the Utes are hoping for their own resume-boosting victory in front of the home crowd.

This is a genuinely good Cincinnati offense, a unit that is averaging over 38 points per contest, with a nice mix of pass and run. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby has really taken off after a couple up-and-down seasons, with over 1,800 yards through the air and 20 touchdowns to just one interception. The stats alone would be impressive, but it's Sorsby's feel for the game that stands out at you when watching this Cincinnati team. He doesn't turn the ball over, he gets the ball out quick and doesn't take sacks, and he plays with the poise of a veteran college football quarterback. He's benefitted from a solid supporting cast that may not have a ton of star power, but is quite solid. Evan Pryor and Tawee Walker have been an excellent 1-2 punch in the backfield alongside Sorsby, while Cyrus Allen and big-play threat Caleb Goodie do damage on the perimeter. With that being said, Pryor has been ruled out for this game, robbing the Bearcats of a key piece who just simply moves the chains. It may not force this team to completely overhaul their gameplan, but Sorsby may be asked to do even more, and Walker is going to have to carry the load even more so than he has through the first nine weeks. Utah's defense does pose an interesting challenge for this Bearcats team. We've just come to expect the Utes and their physical nature to be a differentiator in this conference, and this is a team that does have real athletes in this front seven. Yet, they've been pushed around in both of their losses, albeit to a pair of really good teams in BYU and Texas Tech. It does feel like they own the edge in the trenches in this game, but it felt like that was supposed to be the case in past games, and hasn't always been. Interestingly enough, Utah's pass defense, which was my main concern for the team entering the season, has been arguably their greatest strength. They're fourth in the nation in pass defense yardage allowed, and seem to have the right combination on the back-end to slow down Sorsby and company.

There have been some notable ups-and-downs for this Utah offense over the course of the season, but last week was certainly a highlight. With starting QB Devon Dampier out, the Utes had their most complete offensive game of the season, gaining 587 yards and dropping 53 points on the Colorado Buffaloes. Freshman Byrd Ficklin was a complete surprise, leading the team in passing and rushing despite entering the game with just nine career pass attempts. Dampier is expected to play this Saturday as he was not listed on Utah's injury report, but could that be a negative? It's easy to overreact to one game, and Dampier has still proven his worth, but you do have to wonder how Utah's offense will react to such an impressive performance. With Dampier in, the Utes may take the occasional shot down the field in a way they didn't really with Ficklin, but this is still a run-oriented offense. Dampier's legs are always a factor, and Wayshawn Parker has had an impressive season as their lead back. Don't be surprised if we still do see plenty of Ficklin, who has been used in a lot of packages throughout the fall to this point. What I may be most excited for this Utah team is the battle in the trenches, especially these Ute blockers against Cincinnati's defensive front. Caleb Lomu and Spencer Fano are two surefire future NFL tackles, while Dontay Corleone is one of the best interior D-Linemen anywhere in the country, even if he's been held in check for much of this season. This is not going to be one of your old Big 12 games that resembled basketball scores - this has the looks of a physical, low-scoring affair to me.

The Pick: Utah, 28 Cincinnati, 20

(#9) Vanderbilt Commodores @ (#20) Texas Longhorns

Line: Texas -3.5

O/U: 46.5

College Football Picks 2025: Week Nine

Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

Current Picks Record: 42-30

Upset: 3-6

Superdogs: 4-2

Locks: 4-5

(#3) Texas A&M Aggies @ (#20) LSU Tigers

Line: Texas A&M -2.5

O/U: 49.5

Not since the days of the Southwest Conference have the Texas A&M Aggies been ranked as high as No. 3 in the land, but Mike Elko has the program rolling in his second season at the helm. The Aggies are 7-0, with an impressive win over Notre Dame in the non-conference to boot. However, it's the next five games that will really tell us what this team is truly about, with three ranked teams lurking in road games. First up is the reeling LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge.

Texas A&M relied heavily on their ground game throughout the Jimbo Fisher years and into the debut campaign of Elko, but this 2025 edition has shown some real big-play ability. Quarterback Marcel Reed has grown up quickly, leading a balanced and consistent group. Reed's legs have always been there, but his downfield passing has taken off this fall and he's shown a real poise and command of the offense that was there in spurts last season. Of course, it helps that the Aggies hit on two of their receiver targets in the portal in NC State transfer K.C. Concepcion and Mississippi State's Mario Craver. The duo has been the fuel of this passing attack all season - they've combined for 69 receptions and over 1,000 yards, while no other Aggie has over 11 catches on the year. Craver in particular has really come into his own as this team's deep threat, a YAC weapon who has formed quick chemistry with Reed. With that being said, this LSU secondary is not the same group we've become accustomed to in the last couple years. This is a legitimate SEC secondary with true difference-makers for coordinator Blake Baker. It's a unit that includes my midseason Jim Thorpe Award winner, Mansoor Delane, who has become absolutely shutdown over the last few weeks. I have a feeling he'll match up early and often with either Craver or Concepcion, which should give us some awesome tape. In fact, this entire LSU defense has been downright good for much of the season, with the Ole Miss being the primary exception. But even in that game, they surrendered lots of yardage, but were still in the game late by holding the Rebels to just 23 points. This entire defense has really taken off under Baker and should be ready for the balance A&M is able to create. Even with Whit Weeks appearing to be sidelined for this game, this looks to be the greatest defensive challenge A&M Has seen yet this fall.

While the defense has been a strong point, it remains baffling to me just how bad this LSU offense has looked all season long. They brought back a supposed Heisman contender at quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, a rising sophomore at tailback in Caden Durham, and they spent big money in the portal over the offseason to upgrade the receiver corps. It has simply not come together in any effective way - the Tigers are averaging just 25.9 points per contest. I'm still under the belief that Nussmeier, while inconsistent, is a much better QB than we've seen this season and I see real opportunity for him against this A&M defense. After all, this Aggie defense did give up nearly 300 yards to C.J. Carr and Notre Dame in just his second start of his career earlier this fall, even with the improvements they've made since. It's the complete lack of any type of running game that has been the sore spot for LSU much of this season. Durham has barely been able to get anything going, and none of the other options in the rest of the backfield have fared much better. To be fair, Durham hasn't been 100 percent much of this season, but it does feel like this team has to change up something in a big way if they want to have some semblance of success running the ball. The offensive line has been a primary source of problems after replacing four starters from last season and this A&M front is not an easy matchup to get things rolling again. Play-caller Joe Sloan has tried to disguise the rushing issues with the short passing game, which has been a painful watch. What I'd like to see most from LSU, and what I think we may finally see, is more aggressiveness on this side of the ball. It does feel like Brian Kelly is coaching for his job over the next month-plus now - will we see him act like it? This team has all the talent to be significantly better, and I don't see what they have to lose in this type of game.

The SEC race the final month-and-a-half of the season is going to be a wild one, and I think we're going to see the league really beat itself up. A&M is a very good football team, but I think someone, or potentially multiple teams, catches up to them down the stretch. This is such a difficult conference to stay atop of, and Death Valley is a different beast entirely. While LSU may not be inspiring a ton of confidence lately, I think this team figures things out for the Saturday night upset.

The Pick: LSU, 34 Texas A&M, 28

(#8) Ole Miss Rebels @ (#13) Oklahoma Sooners

Line: Oklahoma -5.5

O/U: 51.5

College Football Midseason Awards 2025

Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame

It feels only yesterday when Iowa State and Kansas State opened up the 2025 college football campaign in Dublin, Ireland. But with November right around the corner, the reality is that the season is already at its halfway point. There's still so much left to unfold but as we gear up for the season's second half, it feels like the right time to honor the teams and players that have made the first half so special.

Projected National Champion: Ohio State Buckeyes

As boring as it may be to pick the reigning National Champion and nation's current No. 1 team in this spot, Ohio State feels like they've separated themselves from the pack to this point in the fall. Julian Sayin has proven to be an upgrade at the quarterback position, with plenty of help from Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate Jr., but it's the defense that is the greatest change for this Buckeye team. Even if after sending an entire slew of players to the pros last spring, Ohio State has been even better on that side of the ball under the tutelage of first-year coordinator Matt Patricia. The Buckeyes have allowed just 41 points over their first seven games, the lowest total from a defense through their first seven in over three decades. It's a trend that bodes well for this team's chances at a potential National Title repeat - the last four teams that have allowed fewer than 50 points during their first seven games of the season have all advanced to the National Championship game. But beyond just the product on the field, Ohio State has one of the easiest paths of any team in contention for a National Title. With Penn State falling apart, the only ranked team the Buckeyes face the rest of the way is the Michigan Wolverines. It's hard to imagine this team not entering the Big Ten Championship Game undefeated and setting themselves up for a bye in the College Football Playoff, which they didn't have last year.

Others in Consideration: Alabama Crimson Tide, Indiana Hoosiers, Texas A&M Aggies, Oregon Ducks, Georgia Bulldogs, Miami Hurricanes

Projected Playoff Field: 

1 Ohio State Buckeyes -- There's no Indiana or Oregon looming in the regular season this year, meaning Ohio State has a clear path to an undefeated regular season. Even if they slip up along the way, this team has built enough of a resume to still be firmly in the hunt for a bye this year.

2 Alabama Crimson Tide -- Since the season-opening loss to Florida State, Alabama has been on an absolute tear. Both sides of the ball seem to be getting better each and every week, and the Crimson Tide have made it through the most difficult part of their schedule. They are the team to beat in an SEC that has a lot to be figured out the rest of the way.

3 Indiana Hoosiers -- The road win over Oregon in impressive fashion asserted Indiana as a legitimate National Title contender, but now the goal for the Hoosiers is to continue the momentum. Fortunately not a single ranked foe remains on their regular season schedule and all three of their road games are against teams trending downwards. We very well could see a 12-0 Indiana facing a 12-0 Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

College Football Picks 2025: Week Eight

Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

Current Picks Record: 37-26

Upset: 2-5

Superdogs: 4-2

Locks: 4-4

(#5) Ole Miss Rebels @ (#9) Georgia Bulldogs

Line: Georgia -7.5

O/U: 54.5

While there is still so much left to be figured out in the SEC race, Ole Miss finds themselves in great position as near the home stretch of October. The Rebels are off to a 3-0 start in the league, with an impressive win over LSU. But now is when we learn just how good this team really is, with back-to-back road games against ranked foes, starting with the mighty Georgia Bulldogs in Sanford Stadium.

It's not an exaggeration to say the entire trajectory of the season for Ole Miss changed when Ferris State transfer Trinidad Chambliss took over as starting quarterback. Sophomore Austin Simmons was expected to be the team's breakout star, but injuries forced Chambliss into a larger role, and neither he nor the Rebels have looked back since. He finds himself in the Heisman conversation at the season's midway point, leading an always-explosive Rebel offense. The ability of Chambliss to create with his legs, even more so than Jaxson Dart the last several years, has forced defenses into quite a bind. If they sell out to contain him, there are enough weapons on the perimeter for this offense to win on big plays alone. The personnel around him certainly helps - this may not be the best Ole Miss receiver corps since Lane Kiffin took over, but it certainly feels like the deepest. Harrison Wallace III and Deuce Alexander have been the top pass-catchers, but the emergence of Dae'Quan Wright at tight end, and the abundance of weapons beyond that trio give this offense so much explosiveness and big play potential deep into games. It creates an interesting matchup for a Georgia defense that has been good so far this year, but not quite at the standard we've come to expect from Kirby Smart coached teams. It just doesn't feel like this Bulldog defense has the usual collection of stars we've come to expect, and they've suffered more breakdowns on the back-end than is usual. Yet, my greatest key to the game may come on third down, where Ole Miss is Top 20 in the country, while Georgia has struggled to get off the field. If Georgia can win the most important downs, and limit the magic Chambliss is able to create, they absolutely can win at home. But, Lane and the rest of this Rebels team have been on fire for so much of the season, they have to be relishing the opportunity for another massive victory.

It's been all about balance for the Georgia offense so far this season. Quarterback Gunner Stockton has made some big throws but he hasn't been putting up gaudy stats, instead playing a brand of football that feels reminiscent of the Jake Fromm team back in 2017. That has always been the bread-and-butter for Kirby, setting things up with the run and doing just enough through the air to come out victorious. The thing is, the rush offense has been very unlike Georgia over these last couple years, even if it does appear to be gathering some momentum in recent weeks. Redshirt freshman Chauncey Bowens has taken over as the lead back and given this ground game some much-needed pop, but consistency remains an issue. He looked the part against Alabama, rushing for 119 yards and a score, but has been held in check in recent weeks. Is this the matchup to get him rolling again? Sophomore Nate Frazier, who I had pegged as a breakout candidate, has been quieter than expected early on, managing just 24 yards on ten carries last week in the Auburn win. I'm not even sure the rushing issues are solely to blame on the backs - the offensive line hasn't been quite as good and expected, and it does feel like teams have been willing to stack the box against Stockton. He's going to have to make some big throws in this game, which we've seen do before, with the Tennessee game coming to mind right away. But, can Stockton make those throws more regularly, throughout the contest? If so, this team might just have what they need to open things up and give Ole Miss a defensive challenge they haven't quite had for much of the season.

It has not felt like a vintage Georgia team up to this point in the season - they could easily have three losses at this point. But, as Kirby's teams often do, they have found ways to win games. I sort of feel like that's how this one will play out, too. They've had an entire year to prepare for an Ole Miss team that embarrassed them a season ago, and this Georgia staff is still one of the best in the country. They should have the right defense schemed up to contain Chambliss and if the offense can find some semblance of explosiveness, I like their chances even more.

The Pick: Georgia, 31 Ole Miss, 28

(#11) Tennessee Volunteers @ (#6) Alabama Crimson Tide

Line: Alabama -8.5

College Football Picks 2025: Week Seven

Dante Moore, Oregon

Current Picks Record: 34-20

Upset: 2-4

Superdogs: 4-1

Locks: 4-3

(#7) Indiana Hoosiers @ (#3) Oregon Ducks

Line: Oregon -7.5

O/U: 55.5

Until they're knocked off their pedestal, Ohio State remains the team to beat in the Big Ten. However, both Oregon and Indiana are breathing right down their necks inside the league - and one will assert themselves as the top challenger after this weekend. Oregon's resume took a slight hit with Penn State's shocking loss last weekend, but the Ducks remain formidable. On the other side, Indiana has looked even better than last fall, and would love nothing more than a signature win in Autzen Stadium.

Indiana got a much-needed week off this past Saturday after surviving a scary trip to Iowa City the week prior. There wasn't anything necessarily pretty about the Hoosier win over the Hawkeyes, but they're the type of wins you have to have sometimes in this conference. The offense, especially the passing game, has been playing tremendous ball, thanks in large part to the addition of Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza has been the downfield passer Kurtis Rourke wasn't a year ago, giving this team real verticality in what they can do to opposing defenses. Elijah Sarratt and company have been quite the complements out wide, arguably the best group of pass-catchers Oregon has seen up to this point in the young season. My question is for the Hoosiers comes with their running game, which had a rough outing against Iowa (2.7 YPC) and faces quite the test in Oregon here. Not having a ton of success against Phil Parker's defense is a common concern, but we saw just how effective the Duck front can be when they shut down Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton for much of their matchup with Penn State. Oregon has always had talent, but it feels like this year's defense is playing at an entirely different level with their instincts and how quickly they can swarm to the ball. Mendoza has been a great quarterback to this point in the season, but have we seen him need to carry an offense in a hostile road environment quite like this? The last time he faced the Ducks, his Golden Bears were shredded to the tune of 63-10 in a game in which he was fairly quiet, going 18-34 for 177 yards. Obviously this Indiana is a much different breed than 2023 Cal, but I'd argue this Oregon defense is also at a different level. 

Following last season, it was the expectation that Oregon's offense was going to be led by wide out Evan Stewart, who spurned the NFL for another year in Eugene, and Tulane transfer Makhi Hughes at tailback. This offense has been even better than expected - with neither of those making any sort of impact. Now, to be fair, Stewart has been hurt and may not return at all this fall, while the Hughes situation remains baffling to me. He's barely seen in the field and the expectation now is that he will likely redshirt and play elsewhere in 2026. That hasn't been an issue for Will Stein and the Ducks, who are averaging 47 PPG with a very balanced offense. Quarterback Dante Moore has been tremendous taking control of this offense from veteran Dillon Gabriel, and the rest of the supporting cast is full of playmakers. Freshman receiver Dakorien Moore has been a sensation, tight end Kenyon Sadiq is a matchup problem, and this may be the deepest stable of running backs anywhere in the country. It's become so clear just how much of a machine Dan Lanning and his staff have built here. Their second and third players on the depth chart are so much better than most teams in this league, and in the country. You add it all behind a strong offensive line, it's no surprise Oregon dropped 30 points and 424 yards against the highest paid defensive coordinator in the nation in Happy Valley two weeks ago. But, what separates this offense to me, and what may hurt Indiana the most in having to defend them? How well they take care of the football. Lanning is an aggressive coach, but this offense makes the most of every possession, and their depth allows them fresh legs later into ball games. For an Indiana team that has relied so heavily on earning the turnover advantage during the Curt Cignetti years, if they can't force Moore into a mistake or two, it's going to be difficult to keep up.

Indiana has answered a lot of doubters who thought 2024 was a fluke, and this is most certainly a legitimate College Football Playoff contender. Yet, Oregon just feels like a machine at this point, and you have to play them at home. The Hoosiers will still give a battle, but I think the Ducks pull away in the second half and leave the weekend with a comfortable victory.

The Pick: Oregon, 34 Indiana, 17

(#8) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#14) Missouri Tigers

College Football Picks 2025: Week Six

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

Current Picks Record: 28-17

Upset: 2-3

Superdogs: 3-1

Locks: 3-3

(#3) Miami Hurricanes @ (#18) Florida State Seminoles

Line: Miami -4.5

O/U: 53.5

Miami - Florida State has long been one of the fiercest rivalries in college football, but rarely has it had such implications in recent times. Despite a loss to Virginia last week, Florida State is hoping to continue their turnaround from last season's 2-10 mark and challenge for an ACC Title. Miami may have even loftier goals - such as a National Title. A loss here will not necessarily run either of their chances, but victory would go a long way in furthering their ambitions as we hit the month of October.

It's been all about the rushing attack for Florida State early on in the season, as Gus Malzahn has engineered the nation's second best rushing offense to this point in the fall. The Seminoles are currently averaging over 336 yards per game on the ground, thanks to dual threat QB Tommy Castellanos and a deep backfield that includes Gavin Sawchuk, Ousmane Kromah, and Samuel Singleton Jr. It's so effective because it doesn't rely on just one piece - Malzahn is a magician at scheming up complex packages that get his guys into space. There's also the chance the Seminoles could be getting an important piece back to this backfield, as Roydell Williams has a chance to return this week after missing their last three games. He went down with injury in the opener against Alabama, but is the most experienced rusher on this roster. This Florida State rushing attack does set up an interesting battle with this Miami Hurricane defense. With coordinator Corey Hetherman, this side of the ball for Miami may be among the most improved units in the entire country. The front seven in particular sets the tone, with Rueben Bain Jr. the alpha in the room. Bain shouldn't be expected to contribute too much as a run defender, but his constant pressure as an edge rusher has given this Hurricane defense a real edge to it all season long. If the Florida State offensive line isn't up for the challenge and Miami can control the line as they have so far this season, you can imagine this team building an early lead and playing ball control the remainder of the game. We are going to need to see Castellanos throw the ball, which he hasn't necessarily needed to for much of the early season. This Miami defense is a whole different challenge than Alabama was - they're healthier, better coached, and relentless. This is going to need to be a vintage Gus coaching performance if Florida State is to put points on the board.

For the Miami offense, it's been all about balance over the course of the first five games of their season. Quarterback Carson Beck may not be Cam Ward, but he hasn't needed to be, instead providing the Hurricanes a competent, reliable signal-caller to run the show. He's benefitted from some really nice talent around him, with Mark Fletcher Jr. rumbling on the ground, while true freshman sensation Malachi Toney and transfer C.J. Daniels make things happen on the perimeter. What really sets Miami apart, however, is the offensive line. This is a peak Mario Cristobal offensive line, one loaded with future NFL talent, depth, and overwhelming ferocity. They have looked the part so far this fall, even against tough competition like Notre Dame and Florida, so they should not be surprised by this Florida State front. And, it's hard to know how good the Seminole defense really is, anyways. They played great football against Alabama and against mediocre competition over the next few weeks, but then allowed 440 yards and 46 points to Virginia last Friday. The Hurricanes aren't as explosive as an offense as the one on the other sideline, but I'm not sure they need to be. As long as Beck continues to take care of the ball and make the right decisions, this can be a very methodical and productive group. Their ability to control the trenches puts them at an immediate advantage over just about everyone on their schedule.

Heading into Doak Campbell Stadium will of course be a significant challenge for this Miami team, but one they should be prepared for. This team has the pieces to take the Seminole crowd out of the game early on, and then play a ball control game the rest of the way with the way they control the lines of scrimmage. As long as Cristobal doesn't make any wacky late-game decisions, an unfortunate tendency of his, I like Miami's chances to keep their perfect record intact.

The Pick: Miami, 27 Florida State, 20

(#16) Vanderbilt Commodores @ (#10) Alabama Crimson Tide

UPDATED: College Football Coaching Carousel 2025 Predictions

G.J. Kinne, Texas State

(Updated 10/14/25)

Less than two months into the 2025 college football season, the coaching carousel has begun spinning. A total of eight programs are out searching for their next head coach, with Penn State's dismissal of James Franklin sending shockwaves across the college football landscape. With several other potential big-name gigs set to open, we could see a potentially chaotic carousel this fall and winter. Who do I see taking over at each current vacancy or potential opening? It's time for some speculation.

Current Openings

Arkansas Razorbacks

(Fired Sam Pittman)

Few coaches in college football entered this fall under as much pressure as Sam Pittman. After a 4-8 record in 2023 originally put his job in jeopardy, a resurgent 2024 at 7-6 earned him another year. But ultimately, three straight losses ended his time as Arkansas head coach after five-plus seasons in charge. Pittman was a bit of an unconventional hire, but he did return the program to respectability after the disastrous two-year run of his predecessor, Chad Morris. In fact, his nine-win campaign in 2022 was just the second time in a decade the Razorbacks had reached or surpassed the eight-win plateau. However, it just felt like the program had reached its peak under his leadership, and a new direction was necessary. He concludes his Arkansas tenure with a 32-34 overall record and 14-29 mark in the SEC.

Hired: Rhett Lashlee, SMU Head Coach

Any SEC job that opens is going to be an attractive one, but I am curious to see how Arkansas is perceived compared to others on the market. The program has resources, but they've struggled mightily over the last decade-and-a-half, since the first Bobby Petrino tenure (who is now their interim head coach). It's also a school that is committed to building winners in basketball and baseball, so it is fair to wonder how serious they are in building a winner on the football field.

With all that being said, it does feel like a job a name like Rhett Lashlee, current SMU head coach, would be interested in. Sure, SMU is now a power conference job and has plenty of money to throw around, but the fate of the ACC is an uncertain one. Moving into the SEC would be attractive alone, but Lashlee is also an Arkansas native and alum of the university. It could be a natural stepping stone for a coach who progressed up the career ladder fairly quickly and has now proven himself as a head coach. Lashlee has seen Arkansas as a winner - he was a grad assistant on the 2006 team that went 10-4 and went to the SEC Championship Game. The opportunity to return to his roots and take over this program has to be a very difficult one to pass up.

Others to Watch: Bobby Petrino (interim HC); Jon Sumrall (Tulane HC); Ryan Silverfield (Memphis HC); Gus Malzahn (Florida State OC); Barry Odom (Purdue HC); Tyson Helton (Western Kentucky HC); Barry Lunney Jr. (Illinois OC)

Oklahoma State Cowboys

(Fired Mike Gundy)

College Football Picks 2025: Week Five

Ty Simpson, Alabama

Current Picks Record: 23-13

Upset: 2-2

Superdogs: 3-1

Locks: 1-3

(#6) Oregon Ducks @ (#3) Penn State Nittany Lions

Line: Penn State -3.5

O/U: 51.5

We learned a lot about the Big Ten last weekend, when Michigan escaped with a win over Nebraska and Indiana took it to Illinois. Yet, both those games pale in comparison to the matchup in primetime Saturday night. Two undefeated teams, Penn State and Oregon, square off under the lights in Happy Valley in what could be a Big Ten Championship Game preview. It feels like the entire month for both these teams has been building to this game, and we should have a good one to highlight Week Five.

Both teams have ran through a buttery soft non-conference slate to this point, which is especially true of Penn State. The Nittany Lions have beaten Nevada, FIU, and Villanova en route to their 3-0 start, all comfortable victories. It's hard to take anything significant from any of those wins - the Nittany Lions rolled without much issue, but they likely held a lot back on both sides of the ball knowing Oregon was later in the month. Quarterback Drew Allar has been fine, but nothing particularly special. The thing is, he hasn't needed to be, as Penn State has held a clear advantage in talent against every time they've faced, and been able to ride the two-headed backfield of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to success. That will obviously not be the case against the Ducks. This is a front seven with a bunch of future NFL guys, built in the mold of the SEC defenses we used to see back in the late 2000s and early 2010s. This is going to be an absolute war at the line of scrimmage, and it may come down to whether Allar can make the big throws. In fact, that seems to be a consistent theme of Allar's career up to this point. He's won a lot of games, put up impressive numbers, and is widely considered among the best in the nation. But, it feels like he hasn't had a true breakout game on the big stage against an elite defense. Oregon would provide that moment, but he does need help from his receivers out wide. Trebor Pena has been a helpful addition but will need to elevate his play, as will Kyron Hudson. I am curious if Penn State has more tricks up their sleeve than just those two. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is a creative guy, and used tight end Tyler Warren in a bunch of unique ways last fall. Do we see Penn State break out something new we haven't seen yet this fall? This would certainly be the game to do it in.

It's been smooth sailing for Oregon to this point, too, and they do have a Big Ten to their credit already after taking down Northwestern on the road. Quarterback Dante Moore has been absolutely dealing up to this point in the year and has garnered early Heisman attention. No Evan Stewart has been no problem, with Dakorien Moore stealing the show out wide, but there are an abundance of options here. Tight end Kenyon Sadiq is a matchup nightmare, and Malik Benson and Gary Bryant Jr. are proven veterans providing plenty of spark of their own. The ground game has been interesting - Makhi Hughes was expected to be the alpha after coming over after a huge year at Tulane, but he's been quiet early. Instead, it's been Jayden Limar, Noah Whittington, and Dierre Hill Jr. getting the bulk of action so far. You do wonder if that has more to do with the fact most of the early action for Oregon so far has been in blowouts, or if that's how this backfield is going to shape out the rest of the season. Has Hughes also been not 100 percent? Either way, the Ducks are all operating behind an elite offensive line, giving playcaller Will Stein all the toys he needs to engineer some real magic on this side of the ball. Yet, this is going to be a fascinating chess match between Stein and his opponent on the other side, Penn State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Knowles is one of the truly elite defensive minds in the game today, and he completely flummoxed Oregon in last year's Rose Bowl while at Ohio State. With the Nittany Lions, he has a defense that may not have the star power of last year's Buckeyes, but has ample experience. They're going to throw a lot at Moore and company, a quarterback who really has not played in this type of environment in primetime before.

I feel like a broken record throughout the month of September, but it's true - we simply don't know that much about either of these teams just yet. Sure, they've beaten up on inferior teams and looked pretty dang impressive while doing so. But, this type of game, in Happy Valley with so much talent and future NFL players on the field? It's completely different. Penn State hasn't quite looked as crisp as Oregon early, but they do get the home crowd behind them and the Knowles factor is a decisive one. You know he's been preparing for months for this exact game, eager to deploy the right scheme to slow down Moore and the Ducks. I think the Nittany Lions turn this one into a bit of a slow-paced, almost ugly type of football game and lean on their power-run game the other way to lead them to victory.

The Pick: Penn State, 24 Oregon, 21

(#17) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#5) Georgia Bulldogs

College Football Picks 2025: Week Four

Devon Dampier, Utah

 Current Picks Record: 16-11

Upset: 2-1

Superdogs: 2-1

Locks: 0-3

(#9) Illinois Fighting Illini @ (#19) Indiana Hoosiers

Line: Indiana -6.5

O/U: 52.5

So far, the top Big Ten teams have rolled through their non-conference schedule, but we'll learn a lot about the league this weekend. Not only does Michigan square off with Nebraska in Lincoln, but the Illinois Fighting Illini head to Bloomington to match up with the Indiana Hoosiers. Both teams have legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations, and a win here could give their resume a nice boost early on in mid-September.

It's been smooth sailing en route to a 3-0 start for the Illini, riding a balanced offense and stingy defense. Luke Altmyer has looked in complete control, throwing for eight touchdowns without an interception to this point in the year, the backfield has three legitimate weapons, and the receiver corps has recovered well from an offseason that saw them lose Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin. Yet, this will almost certainly be the toughest defense they've seen all season long, and in a hostile environment. Mikail Kamara gets most of the attention for the Hoosiers up front, but this is a group with playmakers at all three levels. They may not necessarily be the most talented, but Indiana prepares incredibly well on this side of the ball and they play hard for Curt Cignetti. Illinois is going to have to use all the tools in their arsenal to move the ball consistently, and that may include taking more shots down the field than what we've seen over the first three weeks. Yet, the win over Duke earlier in the year has to show the playbook for what they'll look to do against Indiana, especially when you consider this is their only other power conference game to this point. The Illini started fairly slow, establishing the run and playing a more conservative style of offense. But they made the right adjustments at halftime, began throwing the ball down the field, and held on to the ball to dominate time of possession. While not necessarily easy, if the Illini can jump out to a lead early, this is the type of balanced offensive approach that can simply sit on leads and take the entire game away from their opponent.

The new-look Hoosier offense hasn't had much difficulties themselves, averaging 52 points over the course of their first three games of the fall. Now, to be fair, the opponents so far? Indiana State, Old Dominion, and Kennesaw State - not exactly elite competition. But it still has to be encouraging for this team to look so crisp early on in the season when you consider they are breaking in a new QB, Fernando Mendoza, and new lead back in Roman Hemby. Mendoza to be is the most interesting player to watch in this game. You saw the potential with him when he was at Cal, and there's a reason he's caught the eye of NFL scouts with his 6'5" frame. With that being said, consistency has been an issue for Mendoza, and he simply has not played in a lot of important games over the course of his college career. Could the moment be too much for him? Illinois has long been a defense that is able to switch up their looks to confuse opposing quarterbacks, and the secondary has looked good so far this season. It's going to be a very interesting battle here. Fortunately, Mendoza does have the benefit of throwing to a very strong receiver corps, one that includes a trio of veterans in Omar Cooper, Elijah Sarratt, and E.J. Williams. Indiana feels like the more explosive team, at least on paper, but is there an adjustment period we should expect considering the increase in competition? There's a lot of variables to consider here and so early on in the season, we don't have a very accurate picture of either one of these teams.

This is a true coin flip type pick for me. Indiana feels like the team with the higher ceiling given the talent on both sides of the ball and what the personnel is capable of. But, how can we accurately view a team like this that has played such meager competition? I have a better idea of who the Illini are, but do they have the vertical passing game and weapons to overcome a tough opponent on the road? In a true 50-50, I tend to lean towards the home team, as boring as it is. The Hoosiers feel like they should be the better team, too, if things come together, but it's bound to be a close one all the same.

The Pick: Indiana, 27 Illinois, 24

(#17) Texas Tech Red Raiders @ (#17) Utah Utes

Line: Utah -3.5

O/U: 56.5

The Big 12 race feels as wide open as ever before as we head into Week Four. Iowa State got the big (or so it seemed at the time) win over Kansas State to begin the year, but they've underwhelmed in recent weeks. Arizona State has lost. Kansas State is a mess. That opens the door for one of these two teams set to collide this weekend to position themselves as an early favorite, as Texas Tech travels to altitude to face off with Utah.

Few teams in all of college football spent as much this past offseason to build a winning roster as Texas Tech, and it has paid off so far en route to a 3-0 start. Yet, none of their wins have been overly impressive to this point - Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Kent State, and Oregon State. Going into Salt Lake City and coming away victorious is a whole different challenge, one that will require a fully healthy and ready to go Behren Morton at quarterback. The veteran is one of the best in the Big 12 when healthy, but injuries have been an unfortunate theme of his career. He had shoulder surgery last December and seemed ready to go for this fall, but has been banged up early, albeit not missing any significant time. The pressure is on him as the Red Raiders prepare for this contest. Morton has had an impressive career and played a lot of football here, but has never quite been able to show up in the biggest moments and get this program over the edge. Against an always-stout Ute defense, if he can come in and make some huge throws, it could make all the difference for the Red Raiders. Morton is also extra important considering this ground game seems to still be getting rolling as it moves forward without star Tahj Brooks. It's been a rotation early on, as it's likely to be this fall unless somebody overwhelms the competition, with Adam Hill leading the charge so far. Statistically, they've been good, but Utah's defensive front is a significant challenge. Few teams in the country fill gaps and are as fundamentally sound as the Utes, who always seem to have several linebackers who can take over games on the defensive end. This year, it's Lander Barton, a former blue chip recruit who has lived up to the hype for the Utes. I am very curious to see how Tech responds to the physicality they're going to face here. This has long been a program that wants to spread it all out and play on the perimeter, but the personnel has changed in a big way. Are they ready to go on the road and win a grinding, physical game against a team of Utah's caliber? They have the talent to do so, but this has not been the type of game the Red Raiders have succeeded in historically.

The Utes haven't exactly been playing elite competition themselves as they've begun 3-0. They destroyed former Pac-12 foe UCLA to begin the year and then cruised past Cal Poly and Wyoming. The defense has been unsurprisingly terrific, but it has been a fascinating watch to see the offense evolve this fall. Quarterback Devon Dampier is a much different player than we've come to expect from Kyle Whittingham QBs. He's a true dual threat and a playmaker who is going to take risks with the ball, whether with his legs or his arm. So far, it hasn't harmed the Utes, as Dampier hasn't turned the ball over, and has ran all over opposing defenses. This game against the Red Raiders is a bit different - their front seven was one of the key areas they spent big on over the offseason, and the secondary has been a pleasant surprise. Dampier is going to want to take things over, but his first interception of the season could be the type of thing that swings the tide in a competitive game like this. The Utes do feature a quality running game beyond just Dampier and out wide, Ryan Davis and tight end Dallen Bentley give them enough to overcome opposing defenses. With all that being said, where I see the game being decided is in the trenches, specifically this matchup between Utah's O-Line and Tech's defensive front. Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu are likely future NFL Draftees for the Utes, and their ability to control the line of scrimmage has been central to Utah's identity. The Red Raiders will get after opposing quarterbacks, especially end David Bailey, but I'm not sure how good their rush defense is just yet. I think the Utes are just fine turning this into a slow, churning game and riding their defense and home atmosphere to victory. It's a formula that has been awfully successful for Whittingham in his coaching career.

Yet another game that's difficult to predict so early in the year, because we just don't know a ton about either of these teams. With that being said, Utah has always had a clear identity and even with Dampier under center, they are going to play a similar brand of football. They know how to win low-scoring games and the atmosphere in Salt Lake City is unmatched, even so early on in the morning. Until we see it from Texas Tech in a big game, I like the Utes in this game.

The Pick: Utah, 21 Texas Tech, 18

Other Picks

(#22) Auburn Tigers @ (#11) Oklahoma Sooners -- An opportunity for a Jackson Arnold revenge game, as the former Sooner and current Tiger heads back to Norman. He's looked good running the ball early, but I'm not sold on this Auburn passing attack. I'm not sold on their defense, for that matter, a worrying combination against a team like Oklahoma.

The Pick: Oklahoma, 42 Auburn, 28

Florida Gators @ (#4) Miami Hurricanes -- As frustrating as last week was for Florida, they did stick around deep into the second half against the nation's third best team - with five turnovers from D.J. Lagway. They have a chance to make this a game. But, the Hurricanes are playing just too well at the moment.

The Pick: Miami, 34 Florida, 24

(#21) Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers -- May be one of the biggest games in recent memory for the 'Huskers, an opportunity for them to start 4-0 and snag a huge Big Ten victory. Yet, they've struggled to stop the run against quality competition - Cincinnati ran for nearly 7 yards per carry against them. Justice Haynes and the Wolverines pound the rock to victory.

The Pick: Michigan, 20 Nebraska, 14

Purdue Boilermakers @ (#24) Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- Rivalry games can always get a bit weird, and Purdue looks much improved in Year One of Barry Odom. Still, I'm not sure they have the firepower necessary to go into South Bend and drop the Irish to 0-3.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 35 Purdue, 13

Upset: Tulane Green Wave @ (#13) Ole Miss Rebels -- Tulane may not be at the talent level of an Ole Miss, but this is the type of well-coached, physical team the Rebels have struggled with. And, who is starting at QB for the Rebels? Trinidad Chambliss looked like an upgrade over Austin Simmons, but Simmons is expected to be back.

The Pick: Tulane, 31 Ole Miss, 28

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Temple Owls (+24.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -- Fresh off an emotional, huge victory. Haynes King took a beating. The defense had to battle for all four quarters. I still like the Yellow Jackets to win comfortably here, but the Owls may keep it interesting enough to cover.

The Pick: Georgia Tech, 28 Temple, 10

Lock of the Week: UNLV Rebels (-2) @ Miami (Ohio) Redhawks -- UAB looked ready to reverse my winless locks start to the year - and then allowed a late Akron cover. Now I turn to UNLV, who is 3-0 and should be able to overcome a Miami (Ohio) team with a struggling offense.

The Pick: UNLV, 27 Miami (Ohio), 14

College Football Picks 2025: Week Three

Nate Frazier, Georgia

Current Picks Record: 9-9

Upset: 1-1

Superdogs: 1-1

Locks: 0-2

(#6) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#15) Tennessee Volunteers

Line: Georgia -3.5

O/U: 49.5

The first major SEC game of the fall sets the stage for Week Three, as Georgia travels to Knoxville to take on the 15th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers. Both teams stand at 2-0, but neither have made much of an impression on the young season just yet, beating up on inferior foes. This game will tell us which may be ready to make a run at an SEC Title, as both look for an early resume-booster for their College Football Playoff hopes.

It hasn't felt like Georgia has had to pull out anything from their playbook over the season's first two weeks, as they've cruised past Marshall and Austin Peay. Yet, this game will tell us a lot about what we can expect from an offense that is going to be relying on some new faces this fall. Quarterback Gunner Stockton is the most notable change in his first full season as starter, but it will also be interesting to monitor who emerges as the top option out wide. Tailback Nate Frazier is one player I've had pegged as a breakout candidate, and he's been effective over the first two games. But, is he truly ready to become the bell cow back, and a true difference-maker for this offense? On the perimeter, is USC transfer Zachariah Branch ready to put it completely together over the course of an entire season? Or, is this going to be another year where the Bulldogs lean heavily on their tight ends in the passing game? This offense is loaded with talent, but there are questions here, too. Perhaps my greatest question lies along the offensive line, which has pummeled opponents early, but faces a serious test in Tennessee. Every defensive coordinator wants to run an aggressive defense, but Tim Banks takes it to another level for the Volunteers. He'll take a lot of risks, and it's often boom-or-bust on this side of the ball for the Vols. When it works, this can be one of the stingiest defenses in the country, as it was for much of last season, but it can also be prone to allowing the big play. How Georgia reacts will be very interesting - this hasn't been an offense that has needed to be explosive, but they have their fair share of big play threats. Whether they're able to take their shots and potentially break open the game down the field may make all the difference in what is sure to be a fierce, competitive contest.

For all the drama that unfolded around Tennessee's quarterback situation this spring, the Vols have to be pretty satisfied with Joey Aguilar through the first couple games. Aguilar, who was at Appalachian State before a brief transfer to UCLA, where he was essentially swapped for Nico Iamaleava, has thrown for 535 yards and five touchdowns over the first two weeks. Aguilar is not the most talented quarterback Josh Heupel has ever coached, but he's looked in complete command and what stands out in particular is how well he takes care of the football. He hasn't thrown an interception on the season yet, and hasn't been sacked, either, a testament to this Tennessee offensive line. Needless to say, he's in store for his greatest challenge yet against a Georgia defense stock full of its usual NFL talent. There isn't quite the one elite pass rusher up front that we've come to know here from the Bulldogs with guys like Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter, but the back seven has all the pieces to be elite. Raylen Wilson and C.J. Allen are going to swarm the Tennessee ground game, and Aguilar is going to have to make more difficult throws in tight windows than what he has done over the first couple weeks. Heupel is going to scheme players open, but this Tennessee offense doesn't seem to have the skill position players they've had in the past, at least not on paper, and Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs have had their numbers in recent years. Don't be surprised if this is the type of thing that turns into a bit of a low-scoring, grinding type of game, one that seems to favor the 'Dawgs in that scenario.

It's difficult to feel particularly strong about either one of these teams. They've both impressed during the early portion of the season, but we still don't know much about either, and it feels like Georgia in particular has held back of their playbook to begin the year. Going into Knoxville is no easy feat, especially against a Volunteer team that is playing well and playing confident, but the Bulldogs feel like they're going to bring out something special int his game, and Smart's track record against UT speaks for itself.

The Pick: Georgia, 24 Tennessee, 17

(#16) Texas A&M Aggies @ (#8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish