 |
| Tre Holloman, Michigan State |
Despite playing in the toughest conference in college basketball, the Auburn Tigers have not moved from their perch at the top of the rankings all season long. Bruce Pearl's team now enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament with the top overall seed, holding on to the position despite a loss in the SEC Tournament semifinals to Tennessee. This Tigers team checks just about every box you could be looking for from a National Title frontrunner. They have the star power, led by star forward Johni Broome, the veteran leadership throughout their roster, plenty of shooters, and enough depth to keep them fresh far into the NCAA Tournament. With all that being said, there are two things I'm watching closely with Auburn as we look ahead to the Big Dance: can big man Dylan Cardwell stay out of foul trouble and be an X-factor on the block? And, can veteran guard Chad Baker-Mazara stay out of trouble himself and not let his poor reputation for cheap shots cost Auburn when it matters most? Both feel equally important - Cardwell is the most underrated piece on the team, a longtime Tiger whose defense sets the entire tone for this team. If he can stay on the court, he feels like the type of player that can make all the difference when the margins are so close in the NCAA Tournament. As for Baker-Mazara, he may be the best player on this team not named Johni Broome, but he's cost Auburn at several points this season with his decision-making. Bruce Pearl seems to enjoy guards who walk a fine line between fiery passion and being a detriment to the team but if Baker-Mazara can stay on the court, this Tiger team is much scarier, and their chances to come out of a tricky and deep South Region increase in a major way.
Welcome to the Dance: UC San Diego Tritons
There may not a better story this NCAA Tournament than the UC San Diego Tritons, who made the field in their first year of eligibility after a four-year transition up from Division II ball. The Tritons are no fluke either, as they built a resume that includes a 30-4 record, including an 18-2 mark in the Big West, and a notable non-conference win over Utah State. Guard Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones may not have a household name, but he paces the high-flying Triton offense, as their top scorer, rebounder, and distributor. He leads a balanced unit that can really shoot the ball, shooting nearly 37% from three-point territory this season. Perhaps most important for UC San Diego's opening game against Michigan, this is a team that knows how to force turnovers, and they'll face one of the most turnover prone teams in the country in the Wolverines. It would not be a surprise if they're able to pull a first-round upset, and their path forward could end up being against another Cinderella candidate, as Yale should be a popular pick against Texas A&M in the first round. The Big West Champion has pulled off some major upsets before, and UC San Diego is built like a team that could do just that this time around.
The Cinderella Candidate: Yale Bulldogs
UC San Diego could certainly win a game or two, but my Cinderella pick in this region is the Yale Bulldogs. The Ivy League Champion returns to the NCAA Tournament after winning 22 games and going 13-1 inside the conference, capped off with a victory over Cornell in the conference championship game. Head coach James Jones has a team here that may surprise folks with what they are able to do on both sides of the ball. On offense, the trio of John Poulakidas, Nick Townsend, and Bez Mbeng is a group that you don't often see on mid-major teams. That trio alone averages nearly 48 points per contest, and Mbeng is the glue guy, an elite distributor whose pesky defense has irritated teams all season long. This group also has experience pulling off an upset, as they shocked Auburn last season in just about the same position, as a 13 seed going up against the four. Texas A&M is a strong four seed who won't bow out of this NCAA Tournament easily, but after a frustrating loss to Texas in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, they enter the Big Dance without any momentum. Yale is perfectly positioned to pull off another upset and get back to the second round, and who knows? If UC San Diego beats Michigan, the path for the Bulldogs gets even easier, potentially setting themselves up for a Sweet 16 matchup against... the Auburn Tigers.
The Controversial Pick That Will Inevitably Win a Game or Two: North Carolina Tar Heels
There was no greater surprise this Selection Sunday than the North Carolina Tar Heels earning entry into the field. The fact of the matter is that the Heels do not have a Tournament resume, and they earned a spot over not one, but two teams that were more deserving, in West Virginia and Indiana. The fact that UNC athletic director Bubba Cunningham is the chair of the Selection Committee has caused a great uproar among college basketball fans, about as blatant of a conflict of interest as you will find in college sports today. With all the controversy surrounding this selection, the Tar Heels will be under a microscope as they begin their 2025 NCAA Tournament in the First Four against San Diego State. Yet, March Madness doesn't make sense, and I just get this feeling this team is going to be able to find a way to win a game or two, even with all their flaws. Veteran guard R.J. Davis is looking to conclude his college basketball career with a grand finale, and the Tar Heels have enough elsewhere to surprise some folks. The fact UNC finished the regular season strong and looked ready for an ACC Tournament run before Ja'Lynn Withers' free throw violation cost them the game against Duke in the semifinals feels like another reason to believe this team may surprise. There's just something about this team that gives me a feeling their NCAA Tournament is going to be longer than expected, and just about every year we see a First Four team make the second weekend. This year, I think it will be the Heels.
Don't Forget About: Michigan State Spartans
The South Region is a particularly strong region. Not only is Auburn the top overall seed, seeds 2-9 may be the strongest of an region in this NCAA Tournament. That includes Michigan, who should be a much better seed than 5, and a Louisville team that somehow finished with an eight seed, despite all the makings of a team that should have been in the 5-7 range at worst. With all that depth, it may be easy to forget about Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans, even though few programs are as consistent as they are when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. The Big Ten regular season champions, the Spartans have looked the part all season long, with a balanced, well-rounded roster. In the backcourt, Tre Holloman is the type of elite floor general that every great Izzo team has, and he's surrounded by difference-makers like sniper Jaden Akins and jaw-dropping athletes like Jase Richardson and Coen Carr. In the frontcourt, Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper may not be the best Spartan bigs Izzo has coached, but this is a hard-working pair that will be a matchup problem for several teams on this side of the bracket. A loss in the Big Ten semifinal to Wisconsin is probably a good thing for Izzo and company, providing the extra bit of motivation this team needs for an extended March stay. I love the way this team matches up with just about every team standing in their path in the lower part of the region, and it would not shock me if they are the team that ends up coming out of the South intact. This is the team I would buy stock in, and I don't see them bowing out early this time around.
Picking the South
First Round
1 Auburn Tigers over 16 Alabama State Hornets (First Four winner) -- No UMBC-esque upset this year. The Tigers should cruise this in-state foe when they meet up in Lexington.
8 Louisville Cardinals over 9 Creighton Bluejays -- This is a tremendous 8-9 game between two teams who could have easily earned better seeds. Chucky Hepburn is the difference-maker for the Cards, if they can do enough to slow down Ryan Kalkbrenner on the other end.
5 Michigan Wolverines over 12 UC San Diego Tritons -- This will likely be a popular upset pick given how these two match up, but I love Michigan here. Their two seven-footers are a matchup nightmare, and I still believe they hold an edge in the backcourt.
13 Yale Bulldogs over 4 Texas A&M Aggies -- Picking a team to pull off a first round upset two consecutive years is always dangerous, but this is a superb Yale team, and I like their chances to overcome the Aggies.
11 North Carolina Tar Heels (First Four winner) over 6 Ole Miss Rebels -- I don't have any deep basketball reason why I like UNC in this one, something just tells me they are going to win this game given the controversy surrounding them.
3 Iowa State Cyclones over 14 Lipscomb Bison -- This game feels like it's being overlooked, and we have seen Iowa State upset before as a three seed. Yet, the Cyclones and Joshua Jefferson prove to be too much for the Atlantic Sun Champion.
7 Marquette Golden Eagles over 10 New Mexico Lobos -- Even with Kam Jones, Marquette feels like a team that isn't going to stay around too long this NCAA Tournament. With that being said, I just can't trust a Richard Pitino-coached team.
2 Michigan State Spartans over 15 Bryant Bulldogs -- No upset this time around with Michigan State as the two seed, as they roll past Earl Timberlake and the Bulldogs.
Second Round
1 Auburn Tigers over 8 Louisville Cardinals -- An exceptionally difficult second round game for the top overall seed, as the Selection Committee did them no favors. The Cardinals give them a battle, but Auburn's depth helps them prevail.
5 Michigan Wolverines over 13 Yale Bulldogs -- With the way Yale can score, this is going to be a tough matchup for Michigan. I think they're the better team, but they have to take care of the ball to avoid sending the Bulldogs to the second weekend.
11 North Carolina Tar Heels over 3 Iowa State Cyclones -- I love a fully healthy Iowa State, but it does feel like this team has slumped during the second half of the season, and now they are without key guard Keshon Gilbert. I think UNC finds a way to win a rock fight, with R.J. Davis hitting big shots down the stretch.
2 Michigan State Spartans over 7 Marquette Golden Eagles -- I'm just not sure Marquette has the defensive prowess to hang with a Michigan State team that has this many weapons, especially with the MSU bigs earning them second chance opportunities on the offensive glass.
Sweet 16
1 Auburn Tigers over 5 Michigan Wolverines -- This should be a fun one. Two teams that will put up points in a hurry and two elite coaches on the sideline. I think Dylan Cardwell slows down Vlad Goldin outside, and Auburn's better shooting helps them come out victorious.
2 Michigan State Spartans over 11 North Carolina Tar Heels -- North Carolina may find a way to win a few games, but I don't see this run continuing into the Elite Eight. The Spartans prove to be too much, and get one step closer to another Final Four for Tom Izzo.
Elite Eight
2 Michigan State Spartans over 1 Auburn Tigers -- Auburn is the better team and will most likely win this game on a neutral court. But if I'm playing the odds here, Michigan State's path is far easier and feels like the safer pick to get to this point. This certainly isn't Izzo's best team, but it's certainly good enough to get them where they need to be.
South Region Champion: 2 Michigan State Spartans
No comments:
Post a Comment