Cooper Flagg, Duke
The Top Seed: Duke Blue Devils
It may have been a down year for the ACC in basketball this winter, but that was certainly not the case for the league's flagship program. The Duke Blue Devils went out and won 31 games total, including 19 in the conference, and now enter the NCAA Tournament as a National Title favorite. It's clear this is Jon Scheyer's best team since taking over for the legendary Coach K, as the Blue Devil roster is flush with talent. There's the generational star leading the way in Cooper Flagg, tremendous complementary pieces in Kon Knueppel and Sion James, and the steady veterans like Tyrese Proctor. If there is a concern as the Blue Devils reach their most important part of the season, it could be a pair of unfortunately timed injuries. Cooper Flagg's startling sprained ankle in the ACC quarterfinals threatened to derail Duke's season, and he proceed to miss the remainder of the ACC Tournament. It sounds like he'll back for the NCAA Tournament, but it's still worth monitoring, as he's likely not 100 percent. Arguably more important than the Flagg injury just based on the severity of the injury was the loss of forward Maliq Brown, who dislocated his shoulder in the same game. It could be a more important loss than the average person may realize, robbing the Blue Devils of one of their best interior defenders. And yet, you almost wonder if the injury questions could be spun into a positive in a way for Duke as they enter the Big Dance. Not the Brown injury, but the Flagg one, as it gave the rest of the roster a chance to shine in an ACC Title run. Knueppel in particular elevated his play, and now enters the NCAA Tournament playing his best basketball of the season. The same goes for Tyrese Proctor, who just goes out and hits big shots for this team every single game. I mean, would it not be the most Duke thing ever for an injury to the likely National Player of the Year somehow end up being a good thing? This feels like a Duke team on a journey, and another reason to believe? They have the easiest and most straightforward path to the Final Four of any of the No. 1 seeds. This is, without a doubt, a team equipped to win it all this time around, which would be the first National Title brought back to Durham since Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones did it in 2015.
Exercise Caution: Arizona Wildcats
The Arizona Wildcats had a fine introduction year to the Big 12 this winter, recovering from a bumpy non-conference to go 14-6 inside the league. It was good enough to earn a No. 4 seed and set themselves up with a date in the first round against the 13-seed Akron Zips. Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd keeps on churning out victories since taking over in Tucson, but I still have an uneasy feeling about these Wildcats as they prep for the NCAA Tournament. For one, despite Lloyd's success in the regular season, it still feels like he's awaiting his March breakthrough. He's been to the Sweet 16 twice in three seasons, but considering the Wildcats have earned two No. 2 seeds and one No. 1 seed, that feels a bit underwhelming, especially with a shocking first round loss to Princeton sandwiched in there. Even more worrying for me than Lloyd's March struggles, is the fact that point guard Caleb Love is by far and away the most confusing and volatile player in the country. The former UNC transfer can take over games when he's playing well, and it wasn't too long ago he was the heart and soul of the Tar Heels team that played for a National Title in 2022. At the same time, no player can shoot his team out of games quite like Love, and he's had poor numbers across the board this winter for the Wildcats. He's shot 38% from the field and 32% from three-point territory, while shooting at a remarkably high volume - he attempts nearly eight per game. I simply can't put my trust in a team that is led by a player like Caleb Love, the maddening inconsistency just is not worth dealing with. With that in mind, perhaps Love goes out and proves myself and all the detractors wrong with a signature run. He's just that type of player that you have no idea what you're getting on any given night, and that scares me away from Arizona in general.
Don't Forget About: Wisconsin Badgers
In a region that holds Duke and Alabama, a team that went to the Final Four a year ago, it's easy to overlook the other high seeds on this side of the bracket. But Wisconsin is not a team that should be forgotten about, not at all. As much as it pains to me to say, I fear this is one of the best Badgers teams we've seen in some time, perhaps the best since the team that played Duke for a National Title back in 2015. John Tonje is a superstar, a potent isolation scorer who gets to the free throw line at an incredible rate and makes the easy ones. He's the alpha that Wisconsin has often lacked at times during the Greg Gard years, and the Badgers have done a good job filling out this roster beyond him. The backcourt of Max Klesmit and John Blackwell isn't necessarily flashy, but those are two consistent players who do what they need to do to put this team in position to win. Up front, Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter have done enough to make Wisconsin a tough out, and it feels like Winter seems to be getting better each and every game. This is a Wisconsin team that can go out and score 80 points against just about any opponent, which has been the complete antithesis of so much of the Gard era. Even better for the Badgers, the path out in this East Region is favorable. Playing Big Sky Champion Montana at elevation could be of slight concern, but the Badgers should still move on, and I like their chances against the BYU/VCU winner. A potential date with Alabama could loom in the Sweet 16, and if the Badgers are able to slow down the high-flying Tide and catch them on an off shooting night, they could certainly keep on chugging along. This is a team with a high floor, and while I wouldn't go as far as to think they could somehow come out of this East Region victorious, they should not be an easy out, either.
Welcome Back to March: Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt entered the 2024-25 campaign with one of the longest active NCAA Tournament droughts in power conference basketball. First-year head coach Mark Byington, who had come over from James Madison, was simply trying to bring this program out of the cellar in the loaded SEC and return a once respectable program to relevancy. Instead, the Commodores went out and won 20 games, including eight in the best conference in college basketball, and earned themselves a spot in the Big Dance for the first time since 2017. Consistency is still a clear problem - the Commodores enter the NCAA Tournament as losers of three straight games after previously winning three straight against ranked foes. However, this is a team that can really score in a hurry when they're playing well, and guards Jason Edwards and A.J. Hoggard may be one of the country's most underrated backcourt duos. They could be an interesting ten seed in this region, as they're matched up with Saint Mary's in the first round. The Gaels are fresh off their worst shooting performance of the season in a WCC Championship Game loss to Gonzaga, but it should be a back-and-forth battle of the guards in Cleveland on Friday.
Picking the East
First Round
1 Duke Blue Devils over 16 Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers -- If you're Duke, you keep Cooper Flagg on a time limit in this game and perhaps try out some new things as you roll past "First Four" winner Mount St. Mary's.
8 Mississippi State Bulldogs over 9 Baylor Bears -- I've been patiently waiting for this Baylor team to live up to their vast potential all season long, and it simply has not happened. The Bulldog backcourt overpowers a Baylor defense that has struggled the entire winter.
5 Oregon Ducks over 12 Liberty Flames -- No coach, and no program is as consistent as the Oregon Ducks when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. You can just about always bet on this team winning at least a game or two once they get here, and I don't envision them having much troubles with the C-USA Champs.
13 Akron Zips over 4 Arizona Wildcats -- Is this overboard in my concerns about Caleb Love and the Wildcats? Perhaps, but Akron is a worthy opponent, with a balanced and high-scoring offense that could certainly overwhelm Arizona.
6 BYU Cougars over 11 VCU Rams -- BYU ended the season on a tear, winners of nine straight games before a Big 12 Tournament loss to Houston. I expect the Cougars to keep things rolling over VCU in this one.
3 Wisconsin Badgers over 14 Montana Grizzlies -- Keep your eye on the elevation factor here, as this game is in Denver. I think this one stays tight deep into the second, before the Badgers pull away for a comfortable victory.
7 Saint Mary's Gaels over 10 Vanderbilt Commodores -- A rough showing in the WCC Championship Game aside, the Gaels should be a tough out. They end Vanderbilt's return to the NCAA Tournament much earlier than they would have liked.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide over 15 Robert Morris Colonials -- Robert Morris quietly ended the season on fire, losing just one game since mid-January. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean they'll be able to compete with the Crimson Tide over 40 minutes.
Second Round
1 Duke Blue Devils over 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs -- This is an NCAA Tournament with some remarkably tough eight seeds, and the Bulldogs won't be a pushover, either. But they don't have the depth or star power to hang with the Blue Devils in this game, as Duke moves on to the second weekend.
5 Oregon Ducks over 13 Akron Zips -- The ever-consistent Ducks just keep on chugging, this time getting past an Akron team looking for their own Cinderella story.
3 Wisconsin Badgers over 6 BYU Cougars -- With the way the Cougars have played as of late, this is not an easy game for the Badgers. But between John Tonje's ability to take over, and the steady Badger backcourt, I think they find a way to close out the six seed.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide over 7 Saint Mary's Gaels -- This could be one of those games that is essentially played on skates, as both teams are going to look to play fast and out-run the other. Grant Nelson and Cliff Omoruyi make all the difference for Alabama down low.
Sweet 16
1 Duke Blue Devils over 5 Oregon Ducks -- I love the coach matchup between these two teams - Jon Scheyer is one of the fastest rising in the game, while Dana Altman is the proven, old-school vet. Duke is the better team, but the Ducks have enough to give them a hefty challenge.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide over 3 Wisconsin Badgers -- I don't hate this matchup for Wisconsin if they can temporarily shift back to their old ways and play the low-scoring, grinding style of basketball they have been known for. But that's just not the strength of this Badgers team this year, and Alabama outruns them in this game.
Elite Eight
2 Alabama Crimson Tide over 1 Duke Blue Devils -- Quite a chalky side of the bracket, but I think the region ends up with a minor upset. Nelson and Omoruyi are a great defender duo inside and are enough to force Duke to play on the perimeter, which they just haven't had success doing. Mark Sears and the Tide do enough offensively the other way to spoil Duke's season prematurely.
East Region Champion: 2 Alabama Crimson Tide
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