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| Alex Condon, Florida |
For just the second time since their 2007 season completed the journey of back-to-back National Titles, the Florida Gators have earned a No. 1 seed. They did so despite playing in the toughest conference in college basketball, as the Gators ripped off 30 wins total and went 14-4 in the SEC, punctuated by an SEC Tournament Title. Head coach Todd Golden has done a superb job building this roster after taking over a program that was mired in mediocrity under previous head man Mike White. The Gators have the explosive backcourt scoring you need in modern college basketball, led by the trio of Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard. But, they can also bang down low with the best of them in the sport, as forwards Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh and their activity around the basket gives this team an unenviable inside-outside game. Add in the return of center Micah Handlogten, who has come all the way back from a horrifying fractured leg in last year's SEC Tournament and is getting closer to 100 percent, this roster is downright scary. After all, here's a reason Florida lost just one single game by double-digits this winter, a road trip to Knoxville to face off with Tennessee. With all that in mind, how do the Gators handle going from the hunters to the hunted as a top seed? This is the best team they've had in a decade, a group that has been perched near the top of the polls all season long? Are there concerns that they have a tough time adjusting to the rugged, relentless nature of the NCAA Tournament? Perhaps, but that certainly feels like nitpicking, and this team did just play an 18-game conference schedule in the SEC. This team has the looks of one ready for an extended March stay, and I actually think they have the easiest path of any of the No. 1 seeds. That may feel strange to hear considering UConn could be looming in the second round, but if they survive the Huskies, it feels like smooth sailing out West for Todd Golden and the Gators.
The Storyline Team: UConn Huskies
Not since UCLA at the height of the John Wooden era in the late 1960s and 70s has an NCAA basketball team won three straight National Titles. Now, the UConn Huskies enter with a chance to do just that, although the odds feel quite long as they sit on the eight seed line. It certainly has not been a dream season in Storrs - the Huskies' struggles at the Maui Invitational ended up being a sign of things to come, as they finished 14-6 and third in the Big East. While disappointing, to think that this UConn team isn't capable of run would be foolish. For one, we've seen Danny Hurley do it before. But more importantly, the personnel on the roster is still impressive, even if it looks quite a bit different from the last two UConn teams. Solo Ball, Alex Karaban, and freshman phenom Liam McNeeley have emerged as the leaders on this roster and much consistent offensive threats, and it feels like each has something to prove. Ball has been the breakout star on the team after being little-used in last year's National Title run, but is out to prove he can play the Tristen Newton or Jordan Hawkins role as UConn's lead guard. Karaban has gone through his ups-and-downs, but has been a key cog on multiple National Title teams, and should be able to elevate his play now that he's in March. And then there's McNeeley, who hasn't been 100 percent during the second half of the season, but remains an elite scorer. That's not to say these three are going to pull off the magic of getting the Huskies to yet another National Championship Game, but this is a very scary eight seed. If they can get enough stops against Florida, and also get better production in the paint, it's not crazy to think they can pull off the second round upset. And if that happens, the entire West Region gets blown up - quite the setup for another UConn tournament run.
The Cinderella Candidate: Drake Bulldogs
Drake has been a popular upset pick each of the last two seasons, first as a 12 seed in 2023 and next up as a 10 seed last season. Each time, they've been in position to win both games, before inexplicably falling apart late in the second half, resulting in losses both times. Now, the Bulldogs are back once again and looking to pull off an upset, although this team has a different look. First-year head coach Ben McCollum has built on what Darian DeVries built in Des Moines, and has a tough, defensive-minded basketball team on his hands here. Don't think you're going to see a Drake team here that wants to run their opponents out of the gym. The Bulldogs play intentionally slow and methodical, and their probing defense the other way makes them a complete pain to play for the entire 40 minutes. Veteran guard Bennett Stirtz makes it all go as one of the most underrated playmakers in the country. He averages 19.1 PPG and 5.7 APG, but more importantly, his smothering defense creates opportunities the other way for the Bulldogs. This is not a team I'd like to see in this NCAA Tournament, and I think Missouri is going to have an incredibly difficult time in the first round. The way this Drake team is built as opposed to the last two, they're going to be fine if their offense goes through rough patches, because they play such complementary basketball. McCollum is going to be just fine turning these games into low-scoring affairs because he trusts what Drake can do defensively. Don't be surprised if this is the year the Bulldogs finally live up to the hype they've garnered over the last several years and win not one, but potentially multiple, games.
Exercise Caution: St. John's Red Storm
There is little denying St. John's has been one of the best stories in college basketball this winter. The program had been stuck in the mud for decades and in the span of two seasons, Rick Pitino built them into a Big East Champion, with the Red Storm finishing 30-4 overall and 18-2 in the conference. It's not only that St. John's has been successful, but the fact that they play so damn hard. It's the perfect Pitino team, a relentless group that plays both ends and has just enough firepower to overcome opponents. So, why am I exercising caution? I almost wonder if there's just too much hype around this St. John's team. They've had such an impressive season, I get a feeling there could be a March letdown. The fact of the matter is that the Big East this team won was down this year, in a big way. UConn was disappointing, Creighton was good but far from great, Marquette was Kam Jones and nobody else, and the depth of the league was lacking. The Red Storm took their lumps in the non-conference, even if it was months ago, and it's not a simple path for them deep into the NCAA Tournament. Assuming they get past Omaha, which is a tougher 15-seed than most people realize, Kansas/Arkansas await in the second round. I still like the Red Storm to win a couple and this is a team I'm cheering for, but I think it's worth pumping the brakes a bit on the hype train before things get too out of control when it comes to this team.
Picking the West
First Round
1 Florida Gators over 16 Norfolk State Spartans -- Norfolk State has pulled off shocking March surprises before as a high seed, but they simply do not have the firepower to compete with the Gators in this game.
8 UConn Huskies over 9 Oklahoma Sooners -- I'm sure just about everyone in the country will be picking UConn in this 8/9 game. The Sooners are playing better down the stretch, but it almost feels like picking the Huskies in March has become a necessity.
5 Memphis Tigers over 12 Colorado State Rams -- I've gone back and forth with this one. Memphis is about as streaky as they come, and they seem to play their worst basketball when the lights are the brightest. At the same time, P.J. Haggerty ends up making all the difference here.
4 Maryland Terrapins over 13 Grand Canyon Antelopes -- Another sneaky upset pick here, the WAC Champion Grand Canyon will be a tough out. But, the Terrapins have been on fire since the calendar has flipped, and Derik Queen pounds the Antelopes down low.
11 Drake Bulldogs over 6 Missouri Tigers -- This is the year for the Drake upset. It has to be. They turn this game into a rock fight and frustrate the Tigers the entire game, coming out on top in an ugly one.
3 Texas Tech Red Raiders over 14 UNC Wilmington Seahawks -- Texas Tech hasn't gotten a ton of attention as the three seed in this region, but I like the Red Raiders. I don't see them dropping this opener to the Coastal Athletic Association Champion.
10 Arkansas Razorbacks over 7 Kansas Jayhawks -- John Calipari has the Hogs playing their best basketball at the right time, and I'm out on this Kansas team. They should be so much better, but it just has not come together for Bill Self.
2 St. John's Red Storm over 15 Omaha Mavericks -- Between forward Marquel Sutton and a pair of great three-point shooting guards, Omaha could give St. John's a game. But, the Red Storm are just too overpowering over the course of 40 minutes.
Second Round
1 Florida Gators over 8 UConn Huskies -- Definitely major upset territory here, but Florida's clear edge inside is too much for the Huskies, who just don't have enough to match Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh.
4 Maryland Terrapins over 5 Memphis Tigers -- Another coin flip game, because I just don't know which version of Memphis is going to show up. The Terps at least have some consistency, so I think they're the safer pick.
3 Texas Tech Red Raiders over 11 Drake Bulldogs -- This is going to be an absolute battle between two defensive-minded teams. Drake is going to be a tough out for anyone, but J.T. Toppin ends up making all the difference for the Red Raiders here, as he feasts on a Bulldogs team that doesn't have the size down low.
2 St. John's Red Storm over 10 Arkansas Razorbacks -- What's better than a Calipari-Pitino battle in the second round? St. John's ends up victorious here, as their stifling defense contains the Razorbacks.
Sweet 16
1 Florida Gators over 4 Maryland Terrapins -- If the Gators get past UConn, I love their chances to roll to the Final Four. Their explosive offense should prove to be much for Maryland in this Sweet 16 duel.
3 Texas Tech Red Raiders over 2 St. John's Red Storm -- These two programs have met just twice in their history, with St. John's coming out victorious both times. The Red Raiders flip the script in this one, as Toppin and one of the game's elite distributors, Elijah Hawkins, get the job done.
Elite Eight
1 Florida Gators over 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders -- Should be a fun battle between these two high-flying backcourts, and Toppin vs. the Gators in the post. The Gators and their ability to control the glass and ensure second chance opportunities gives them the extra push they need to make their first Final Four appearance since 2014.
West Region Champion: 1 Florida Gators
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