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| Sam Leavitt, LSU |
📊 THE RECORD
🏆 PICKS 50-31 | ⚡ UPSETS 3–6 | 🐕 SUPERDOGS 3–3 | 🔒 LOCKS 7–5
(18) USC Trojans @ (9) Indiana Hoosiers
📍 Bloomington, IN
🏈 Indiana -8.5 | O/U 50.5
Ohio State's sudden downfall following the injury to Julian Sayin has left the Big Ten feeling wide open beyond UCLA. Now, the winner of this contest between Indiana and USC likely asserts themselves as the co-favorite in the league, and in great position for a College Football Playoff berth. Needless to say, the stakes are high for a pair of programs that don't know each other very well - with this being their first matchup since 1982.
We got so accustomed to Indiana lighting up scoreboards during their National Title run last fall, it's been strange to see the offense have some real struggles over the course of this fall. They may still be averaging 32.4 PPG, but the last month has been a brutal watch. They have passed the 20-point threshold in just one of their previous four games, and they needed overtime to do it against Minnesota. The Hoosiers still boast one of the top receivers in the country in Charlie Becker, who has been the MVP of this team this season, once again stepping up in the most important moments. But beyond him, the Hoosiers have looked completely out of rhythm and flat over the last month. Quarterback Josh Hoover just has not looked like himself, and he was injured in the Minnesota win. Backup Grant Wilson came on in relief and made the two most important throws of the game - both to Becker - to set up the game-tying field goal in regulation and the game-winner in OT. Hoover's status for this Saturday remains in question, and Curt Cignetti has been very mysterious about it. Hoover has had the benefit of the bye week to get right, but it still would not surprise if Wilson comes out as the starter here. Hoover's game experience is tough to match, but he's been missing out on easy throws for much of the season, and his decision-making has not been at the level Indiana needs it to be at. Could Wilson be an improvement? Either way, having Becker and Nick Marsh out wide is quite the benefit to whoever starts under center, and this USC secondary still has major question marks. It would not surprise if one or two explosive plays ends up being the difference in this game. Yet beyond the passing game, not enough has been said about a running game that has been similarly underwhelming. Lee Bebee Jr. and Turbo Richard are a solid 1-2 combo, but they've also been held in check over the past month. If they can find some running lanes, you do wonder if Indiana is okay playing a low-scoring, grinding style to come away with a win. With this defense, if the Hoosiers can even just 21 points, you have to feel they are in a pretty good spot.
The tenor of USC's entire season changed with the Halloween win over Ohio State. It was the statement win Lincoln Riley needed to take some of the pressure off his increasingly warm seat, and provided momentum as the Trojans hit their bye week. And the way USC won was interesting - they still gave up a ton of yardage, but made the plays on defense in high leverage moments, and a couple of explosive plays on offense clinched the victory. This is an offense that has a different feel than a usual Riley-coached team. They can still be explosive, but it's more methodical than usual, and at it's best on third downs. It does feel like USC has been more about ball control this year to protect from a defense that has still had some rough moments. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has been solid, and the rest of a young offense has grown up quick. Tight end Mark Bowman looks like a future John Mackey Award winner, Trent Mosley is healthy and making plays, and the ground game is tough and physical with King Miller. Three years now into the Big Ten experiment for the Trojans, they now do have the feel of a Big Ten team - except for that defense. Maiava may not have to go out and drop 35 points to win given Indiana's struggles, but the pressure is definitely going to be on this unit to make the important plays down the stretch. This is a very tough Indiana defense they are going up against, especially on the defensive front, so it likely does come down to the high leverage moments. We've seen USC make the plays to win those types of games, but can they do it again on the road?
The questions at quarterback for Indiana make me hesitant to go with the home favorite Hoosiers, but they do match up well with the Trojans. They can be okay playing a ball control, grinding style of low-scoring football. Cignetti just has a knack for winning these types of games, even if they aren't pretty, and I think they find a way to do it again.
The Pick: Indiana, 24 USC, 17
(6) Texas Longhorns @ (21) LSU Tigers
📍 Baton Rouge, LA
🏈 LSU -4 | O/U 46.5
A month ago, Texas looked dead in the water, with two losses to their name and a tough remaining schedule. But after three straight wins, including a pair of Top 25 wins, the Longhorns now find themselves in great position the rest of the way. With their resume, they could likely lose this game and still find a path to the College Football Playoff. But you have to believe the Longhorns are still amped for the opportunity to head into Baton Rouge and down LSU, with a loss likely completely eliminating the Tigers from achieving their own Playoff dreams.
Few offenses in all of college football are as confounding as the Texas Longhorns. The numbers are not great by any means, even with all the talent on this roster. Yet, they've stepped up in the biggest moments, and beaten four ranked opponents. Arch Manning remains frustratingly inconsistent but there's no denying he can be special, too. His play down the stretch to finish off both Ohio State and Ole Miss gave us the glimpse into just how good he can be, even if there are just as many head-scratching moments. It would be helpful if he could have more consistent support, which has sometimes been an issue. The ground game is now without Hollywood Smoothers, which mean it's Raleek Brown time, full-time. The offensive line has had its fair share of ups-and-downs but seems to be getting better each and every week. Out wide, the trio of Ryan Wingo, Cam Coleman, and Emmett Mosley is far too talented to have the types of seasons they've had so far this fall. It's an interesting chess match against LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker, who I still believe is one of the best in the game today. If LSU can get back linebacker Whit Weeks, the quarterback of this defense, that could be a difference-maker. Weeks fractured his fibula in Week Four, but signs are pointing to him suiting up for this game, even if he's not at 100 percent. The impact of Weeks extends far beyond just the plays he can make, but his leadership in getting this entire unit in position.
Few teams in all of the land spent as much on offense this offseason as LSU, and it's paid dividends for a group averaging over 37 points per game. But the loss last weekend at Alabama was a frustrating one - the Tigers moved the ball incredibly well, with 457 yards and 27 first downs - but managed just 13 points. Alabama made the plays when it mattered most, and LSU simply did not, a trend they have to reverse in this one. Quarterback Sam Leavitt threw for 380 yards himself, but could not will his team to the win. It's been a frustrating theme throughout a large chunk of Leavitt's career - he's put up great numbers, but has too often been unable to get his teams over the top. To be fair to him, the offensive line did not have a great game last Saturday, and the rushing game has also slumped. Both absolutely must be better if the Tigers are to come away with a win. Out of the backfield, Dilin Jones has been a major addition for the roster, and Leavitt's legs do give this LSU another weapon. Yet, this is far from a usual Lane Kiffin offense, which is usually able to run all over opponents with a deep backfield. Beyond Jones, nobody has emerged, and even the feature back has struggled at times. The Texas defensive front is among the best in the country, even with Colin Simmons still not 100 percent (but projected to play), putting more pressure on Leavitt and the rest of this passing attack. Can Leavitt make the big plays he needs to? Playing at home is a major plus, and top wide out Jackson Harris has been on fire, but it's time for the former Arizona State product to prove himself.
This deep in the season with so much on the line, motivation is never hard to come by. But I do get the sense LSU will be especially fired up given they are at home and their season is essentially done with a loss. Texas is a stiff challenge but they remain maddeningly inconsistent, and winning yet another road tilt is a tall ask. If Kiffin and the Tigers learned from a frustrating loss to Alabama last week, they should win.
The Pick: LSU, 35 Texas, 24
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