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| Jayden Maiava, USC |
📊 THE RECORD
🏆 PICKS 11-7 | ⚡ UPSETS 0–1 | 🐕 SUPERDOGS 0–2 | 🔒 LOCKS 2–1
(1) Texas Longhorns @ (14) Tennessee Volunteers
📍 Knoxville, TN
🏈 Texas -5.5 | O/U 55.5
A come-from-behind win at home over Ohio State in Week Two has Texas fans dreaming of a National Title run. The only thing standing in their way? Seven ranked matchups the rest of the regular season, not including the Red River game with Oklahoma. First up is a trip to Knoxville to face off with Tennessee, who has rolled to a 3-0 start but is short on resume wins.
Statistically, there isn't one thing that jumps off the page at you about Texas. They've had three strong offensive showings, with the Buckeye win particularly special given the strength of the opponent. But what they make up for with gaudy stats is just how many different ways they can approach a defense. Arch Manning has thrust himself firmly into the thick of the Heisman race, but the Longhorns have spent major money to give him the right support. Hollywood Smoothers and Raleek Brown have been a very effective 1-2 punch out of the backfield. Cam Coleman is the big name outside, but Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V have been just as valuable. And even though they've taken their lumps, the offensive line has been good enough to put Texas in position to win games. Perhaps most importantly, Steve Sarkisian has been on fire from a play-calling perspective, in the midst of one of his best runs since he was Alabama offensive coordinator. He'll be in store for a battle against one of the best defensive coaches in the game in Jim Knowles, who has engineered a quick turnaround for the Volunteer defense. This is a group that also spent big money this offseason, and it's obvious Knowles represents an upgrade over the departed Tim Banks. Tennessee believes they are good enough now on this side of the ball to compete with the big boys of the SEC and the early results are encouraging. With that being said, how much can we really take away from shutting down Furman, Georgia Tech, and Kennesaw State? This will tell us a lot about just how much those offseason changes can change things here in Knoxville.
There's a lot of great young quarterbacks in the SEC right now, and Tennessee's Faizon Brandon is playing as well as any of them. Brandon emerged from a crowded quarterback room and is off to a start that includes nearly 700 yards of total offense and nine total touchdowns. The most important stat, however, is the zero interceptions, quite an achievement for a quarterback playing his first three games of live college action. Again, the competition is not at the highest level it will be, but it has provided Brandon the momentum he needs to hit the meat of the schedule running. Still, this is going to be a Volunteer offense that is going to need to rely on the ground in these big games, at least early on. For all the talk of Josh Heupel playing a wide-open attack, a power-run game has been a key element in setting up everything they do out wide. He's been patient with his young quarterbacks, including Nico Iamaleava, and Brandon so far. It helps that they've held a superior edge in the trenches against all three of their opponents so far on the year, all of whom are leaky against the run. That's allowed DeSean Bishop, Daune Morris, and Brandon himself to feast against the early non-conference. This is a Texas defense with entirely different athletes, who are fast, twitchy, and physical. I am still quite a bit curious how this Longhorn defense shapes up the rest of the way this fall, and this game will give us some key indications. Will Muschamp was a big-name hire, and a bold move by Sark. The Longhorns have real star power, including Colin Simmons and Rasheem Biles, but will the consistency be there? Texas is going to have to win some ugly ones given the schedule, and that will be on the defense to get the job done.
Neyland Stadium is the type of home atmosphere that can close apparent gaps between teams, and the Volunteers will need the crowd in full tilt on Saturday afternoon. But, it's just so hard to gauge Tennessee at this point in the year, and I would need more justification if I were to go for an upset here. This has the chance to be a tough one, because this is a good Volunteer team... I think. Yet, the Longhorns look to be just too much at the end of the day.
The Pick: Texas, 38 Tennessee, 24
(20) Oregon Ducks @ (12) USC Trojans
📍 Los Angeles
🏈 Oregon -3 | O/U 62.5
Hand up, I'll admit it. Oregon was my National Title pick heading into the season. And so far, the results have been less than encouraging. The Ducks got all they could handle from Boise State in the opener, and then were shocked by Oklahoma State on the road. After a necessary pummeling of Portland State, the Ducks are back on the road to face off with USC, another program aiming to prove themselves on a national scale. For such an early game on the season, it feels like this one has real high stakes for a couple of former Pac-12 foes.
The Trojans sit at 4-0, but their season is essentially decided over the next six games. Oregon and Washington come to the Coliseum, it's road trips to Madison and Penn State, and then Ohio State and Indiana. A 4-2 mark over those six, the Trojans are probably thinking College Football Playoff, and anything less is a disappointment. They have to feel good to be 4-0, but I would not say the first four wins have been super comfortable. Lafayette dropped 30 points on theme in LA, and Rutgers, a team that lost to UMass, gave them all they could handle a week ago. It's clear that Gary Patterson's defense is still figuring things out, which is to be expected. It also means that this may be shootout territory, back to Lincoln Riley's roots. We know Jayden Maiava can chuck the ball around, and the Trojans have found the mix of playmakers around him. In fact, the pass-catchers are very fun, with a whole lot of youth shining early, namely Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, Trent Mosley, and tight end Mark Bowman. Riley has to be excited about what this team can do, especially given how surprisingly bad Oregon has been defensively early on this fall. The defensive line, which the Ducks spent huge money to retain, has been one of the most disappointing units in all of college football. The big-name acquisition in the secondary, Koi Perich, has struggled. Having what was essentially a bye week last Saturday was exactly what Chris Hampton and this defensive staff needed, but things need to turn around quickly. Perhaps they benefit from not having a guy like Wyatt Young to cover in the secondary this week, but the Trojans are even deeper at the skill positions than Oklahoma State.
There were two major questions facing the Oregon offense heading into the fall: the introduction of new offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, and a rebuilt offensive line. Both have played a role in an underwhelming start to the fall, but so too has Dante Moore, who has looked pedestrian at best over the first three weeks of the season. Had he come out this past spring, Moore likely would have been the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, but his decision to come to Eugene came as a big surprise. This year was supposed to be the grand finale to his collegiate career, but he has looked flat and uninspired so far. The rest of the offense hasn't helped him much - the O-Line has struggled against weaker foes, and it's resulted in a mediocre ground game. The receiver corps is talented, but has had more drops than expected, at important moments. Perhaps last week was the get right game they needed to have much-needed momentum, and they will have opportunities against this USC defense. The Trojans have done a fine job getting after the quarterback, thanks to the play of Kameryn Crawford and Luke Wafle, but the secondary is the real question mark. We always knew it was going to take time for the Trojans to acclimate to this Patterson scheme, which has always been complex. But, Moore will likely have the space to throw to he hasn't previously, which could help swing the game in Oregon's favor.
Both of these teams have taken some lumps early, but this is the perfect opportunity for one to secure a big win and set the stage for the next two months of action. Even though they have yet to lose, I have real concerns about what USC has looked like so far. This feels like a good Big Ten team, but not the College Football Playoff challenger we thought they could be if things went right. I just can't give up on this Ducks team yet, and the matchup favors them going into LA and coming away with a win.
The Pick: Oregon, 42 USC, 34
(4) Ole Miss Rebels @ (21) Florida Gators
📍 Gainesville, FL
🏈 Florida -3 | O/U 58.5
Ole Miss got their vengeance over Lane Kiffin last weekend in an awesome environment in Oxford. But, life moves on in the unforgiving SEC, and so they get no rest before heading on the road to The Swamp to face off with the Florida Gators. Jon Sumrall's Gators have been a pleasant surprise over the first three weeks of the season, and are looking for the type of victory that can assert them as a real threat inside the conference.
It was hard to know what the Ole Miss offense may look like this fall, but there has been little issue in life post-Lane Kiffin. Returning one of the top quarterbacks in the game in Trinidad Chambliss has made life pretty easy for first year head man Pete Golding, and Chambliss seems to have elevated his game this fall. There's just something about the way Chambliss plays - he plays every single down like its the last down of football he'll ever play. There's something captivating about every time he steps back in the pocket. He's been able to find a new go-to target on the perimeter in Deuce Alexander, this is a deep Rebel receiver group. They can throw real punches against any defense they face off with, as we saw last Saturday night. The run game is the storyline to watch. The Rebels are going to need some balance if they are to reach the lofty expectations they've set for themselves, and they have to keep this Gator defense honest. Kewan Lacy just has not been himself early, and left the LSU game early, with his status in doubt for this weekend. J.T. Lindsey is probably the top option if Lacy is indeed ruled out, but this Ole Miss offense really loses something without him. Chambliss is as good of a quarterback as they come, but we can't expect him to create magic every single night against the opponents he'll see in this league. It may be a true game-time decision for the talented tailback, who is still listed as questionable.
For years, Florida fans watched some anemic offenses under Billy Napier. That has not been the case through the very early portion of the Sumrall era. The Gators are averaging 54 points per game through the first three contests, doing it with a balanced and precise offense. Buster Faulkner may end up being the best coordinator hire of the entire cycle this offseason and the QB he brought with him, Aaron Philo, one of the better transfers in all of the land. We knew Philo had the ability to run, but he has looked confident slinging the ball down the field. Turnovers are just going to be a reality for a signal-caller in his first year of SEC ball, but the Gators can live with it if they're attacking vertically. I am curious to see how Philo and this passing attack fare against this Rebel secondary. It looked like Ole Miss may be heading for disaster after the defense looked terrible in the opener against Louisville. But then they shut down Sam Leavitt last weekend. Was last weekend the aberration, the result of playing with heightened emotion against Lane? This matchup could end up being the deciding factor. We will also see a tremendous matchup in the trenches, with this Gator O-Line clearing pathways for Jadan Baugh against William Echoles and the Rebel front. We're going to see some real hard-nosed battles at the line of scrimmage. One factor I am watching, not just for this offense, but the Gators in general. This has been one of the most penalized teams in FBS ball through the early going. Some of that is to be expected given the new staff but in games with a close margin for error, you have to wonder if it makes the difference.
I've gone back and forth on my winner pick for this one countless times. Vibes around this Florida program are high at the moment, and we know how difficult it is to play in The Swamp. On the other hand, Ole Miss has maybe the most impressive two wins in college football at the moment, and has the best player on the field. At the end of the day, I come back to the fact this is likely the best ultimate letdown spot we will see all season long for Ole Miss. It's not just beating LSU, it's beating Lane at home. It's completely understandable for them to come back to Earth on the road, and the Gators will be ready to seize the opportunity.
The Pick: Florida, 31 Ole Miss, 28
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