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| Charlie Becker, Indiana |
📊 THE RECORD
🏆 PICKS 29-16 | ⚡ UPSETS 1–4 | 🐕 SUPERDOGS 2–2 | 🔒 LOCKS 5–1
(4) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (5) Indiana Hoosiers
📍 Bloomington, IN
🏈 Ohio State -3.5 | O/U 50.5
A rematch of last year's Big Ten Championship Game, and perhaps a preview of this year's will be on display in Bloomington on Saturday. Vegas seems to believe Ohio State has recovered from their defeat to Texas a month ago and is now resorted back to being the league frontrunner. The Hoosiers will relish the underdog role once again, out to prove the conference race still runs through Bloomington.
It's no secret what has fueled Ohio State's 5-1 start to the season: wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. The junior seems to be the Heisman favorite where we stand at the midway point of the regular season, with 48 receptions, 916 yards and 11 touchdowns to his credit on the year. If he continues on his current pace, he at least has a chance to get within range of the all-time single-season leader, Nevada's Trevor Insley in 1999. Indiana presents perhaps a greater challenge than he's seen in several weeks, but this is not a Hoosier secondary that has played up to the standard they did a season ago. They have lacked the D'Angelo Ponds character in the secondary, the fearless leader who goes up against the best receiver each and every week and relishes the opportunity to shut him down. If you're the Hoosier defense, the best strategy here is to somewhat contain Smith - you're not going to hold him to no damage, but you have to limit the game-breaking plays. If they can do that and force other Buckeyes to beat you, there's a chance to slow down this offense. Quarterback Julian Sayin has been good, but not particularly great. The rush offense has been a bit of a disappointment. The offensive line is banged up. And the receiver corps is really lacking much beyond Smith, with their next best target, Devin McCuin, listed as questionable. There are some real questions here Indiana could exploit, especially as their own defense seems to be progressing nicely after some early season woes. Yet, Ryan Day and the Buckeyes are inevitable in many ways, and there are factors that could be looking up. Getting Phillip Daniels healthy at right tackle is going to be huge against this Indiana pass rush. The ground game, while disappointing, has seemed to find its footing last week, albeit against Maryland. I do still wonder what we see out wide from the Buckeyes, because this has to be more than just Smith if this team genuinely wants to compete for a National Title. Could McCuin stay healthy and show up as the Robin to Smith's Batman? Is this finally the Brandon Inniss game? I do think this Ohio State team is going to try and be aggressive vertically, in a way they weren't in last year's Big Ten Championship. You have to believe they learned their lesson in that game, and also want to exploit this Hoosier back-end.
There's a much different feel to this Indiana offense, which is expected given just how much turnover occurred over the offseason. TCU transfer Josh Hoover may not be Fernando Mendoza, but he's actually been really solid across the board. Two things jump out at you with Hoover and this Hoosier offense: he's taking care of the ball in a way he didn't with the Horned Frogs, and this team relies heavily on explosive plays in a way they didn't last year. Indiana's offense last fall sure hit some big shots, but it was more of a methodical, prodding offense that made the big plays in high leverage moments. This team needs the big shots to be successful, and they've gotten them this season. Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh have been an elite duo on the perimeter, and Hoover has formed quick chemistry with both. It's a real concern for an Ohio State secondary that has also been finding themselves. There's no Caleb Downs back here this season, and it has certainly shown. That's not to say Ohio State can't stop anyone through the air, but this is a big opportunity for the likes of Jermaine Matthews and Devin Sanchez. Sanchez in particular is a big-time talent who was considered a surefire breakout candidate, but has had an up-and-down campaign thus far. Up front, the Buckeyes lack the star-power they've had in years past, but Matt Patricia has still found a way to manufacture pressure, and the rush defense matches up fairly well against the Hoosiers. In fact, that seems to be the description of this Ohio State defense - there's no Bosa brother, or Chase Young, or Downs but they find a way to get the job done. They may be okay giving up yardage, if they can create a turnover or two and make the plays in high leverage situations.
As silly as it sounds, it does feel like Indiana is being a bit overlooked on the year. This may not be the 2025 team, but it's still a great football team and Ohio State has real questions. Yet, it seems to be in the games and moments on the schedule where the Buckeyes have the most questions, we see their most dominant performances. And when your difference-maker is Jeremiah Smith, that's an awfully important deciding factor.
The Pick: Ohio State, 35 Indiana, 31
(2) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ (8) BYU Cougars
📍 Provo, UT
🏈 Notre Dame -10.5 | O/U 46.5
Through the first six weeks of the season, Notre Dame has cruised to a comfortable 6-0 start against a soft schedule. Now, the back-half of their schedule will tell us whether the Irish are merely good, or legitimate National Title contenders. Three ranked foes still await, with a trip to Provo their first significant test. The Cougars have big dreams of their own, and are excited to welcome the Irish at elevation.
It seems like a lifetime ago Notre Dame was known for slow, conservative offenses under Brian Kelly. They've turned into one of the more explosive offenses in college football under Marcus Freeman, a team averaging 44 points per game and getting the ball down the field in a way we haven't seen in a long time in South Bend. Veteran quarterback C.J. Carr is the catalyst, a steady leader who is not only putting up huge numbers but doing so efficiently, with a 71% completion percentage and just one turnover. The rest of the offense is deep and versatile, all behind the usual superb Notre Dame offensive line. And in recent weeks, a new star has seemingly emerged in tailback Jonaz Walton, who now looks to be the guy in a backfield searching for one after the departures of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Walton is flanked by two solid contributors in Nolan James Jr. and Aneyas Williams, but neither have his game-changing, home-run ability. Walton is averaging nearly eight yards per carry, and it's been a long time since we've seen an Irish back with his speed in the open field. All in all, it's pretty clearly the greatest challenge this BYU defense has faced on the season so far. Carr can kill you all game and make it look easy, with play-caller Mike Denbrock opening up valleys for him to throw to. And if that's not enough, Notre Dame is fine to keep it on the ground and grind it out, given they have three guys they can hurt you with. This Cougar defense has traditionally been a tough, physical group, but they just have so much to contend with. It's also a defense that is playing banged up, although it has been playing well. Even at elevation, I do worry if this turns into a track meet for the Cougar defense.
Given that, I suspect we see BYU play a ball-control, field possession game in this one, a style they are well-suited for. There has been more willingness to take some shots down the field so far this fall, but this is still an offense that is at its best keeping the team on the ground and wearing you down over four quarters. Unfortunately, the offense is without a big piece to that puzzle in back L.J. Martin, who will be out for several more weeks after suffering an injury setback in the TCU win. I'm not sure the average fan realizes just how good Martin is, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, a guy who ran for 1,305 yards last season and added 272 more as a receiver. BYU's second in command, Sione Moa, has also been hurt since the season's opener, meaning freshman Journee Tonga and veteran Preston Rex are probably their two best options out of the backfield. QB Bear Bachmeier can also create with his legs, but you wonder if the Cougars will be more restrictive with how they use him given the injuries that are mounting throughout the roster. The reality is that BYU is going to have to find something through the air if they are to keep up with the Irish and spring an upset. Legend Glasker has been a revelation out wide, but the Cougars will need even more going up against an elite Notre Dame secondary. Can Bachmeier make the big throws? He's been a pleasant surprise over his two seasons as starter, and his dual threat ability makes this a tough offense to stop. But, we just haven't seen him make the high leverage throws he needs to in huge games like this. Perhaps this could be the turning point at home, but I'm not sure this is the defense they start to come against.
I've been a bit hard on BYU in recent weeks, as they've been my upset pick two weeks in a row. I don't even mean to knock the Cougars too hard - they have significant injuries, and are still such a tough out. I don't think Notre Dame comes in here and runs away with it, but I'm not sold on an upset, either. The talent disparity in the depth chart is likely to begin to show in the third quarter, and the Irish find a way to pull away comfortably.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 38 BYU, 24
(6) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (14) Tennessee Volunteers
📍 Knoxville, TN
🏈 Alabama -7.5 | O/U 50.5
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