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| Gunner Stockton, Georgia |
📊 THE RECORD
🏆 PICKS 40-23 | ⚡ UPSETS 2–5 | 🐕 SUPERDOGS 3–2 | 🔒 LOCKS 7–2
(17) Florida Gators vs. (3) Georgia Bulldogs
📍 Atlanta
🏈 Georgia -12.5 | O/U 55.5
The "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" will have a bit of a different feel this year, moving from it's long-running roots in Jacksonville to Atlanta, just for this fall. In that sense, it should feel more like a home game for Georgia, which will be important as they fend off the upset-minded Gators. With both teams fresh off a bye and with the stakes higher in this rivalry than they've been in several years, it should be a fun battle in Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The bye week was exactly what the Bulldogs needed after a shocking loss to Auburn, dropping them from their No. 1 perch. The Tigers played well, but it did have a feel of a game that Georgia let slip away. Veteran QB Gunner Stockton had an uncharacteristic two interceptions, and the Bulldogs had three turnovers total. Auburn made the plays in the high leverage moments Georgia didn't, which is a rarity for this program. Yet, it does feel like after these types of games is where Kirby Smart is at his best. He knows how to motivate his teams, and laying a midseason stinker like this is the perfect excuse for the coaching staff to turn it up a notch. Stockton is a better quarterback than what we saw against the Tigers, but he will need more support if this Bulldogs team is to accomplish their goals on the season. The ground game has been okay on the season, but it does feel like it's missing the pop it has had in the past. Dwight Phillips Jr. and Nate Frazier are a talented duo, and they are likely to spearhead the ground game again with Chauncey Bowens listed as questionable. But, is this really the best we can get from those two? There's pressure on the offensive line and receiver corps to also step up - those two groups have far more potential than what we've seen so far in 2026. Nobody beyond Craig Dandridge has been able to consistently make things happen on the outside, and the tight ends have not played at the Georgia standard. Could this be the week things change? The Gator defense had perhaps their best outing of the season last time they were out against Texas, but this is still a group with notable questions. They've really struggled with the big play in the secondary, and the defensive front is not yet at the level Jon Sumrall expects it to be. That's not to say we are going to see Georgia come out and chuck the ball all around the field, this is a Kirby team after all. But you do wonder if Mike Bobo and the Bulldogs may open up their playbook a bit right after a bye and script some shots, especially early on to test the waters against these Gators.
The Texas win may not have been pretty from Florida, but that's the type of game this team is built to win, and that Sumrall wants to be in. They made the most of their opportunities on offense, even if they weren't very explosive, played tough defense, and took care of the football. They'll look to play a similar strategy in this game, but hope to get more a bit more from the quarterback position. Tramell Jones Jr. was serviceable filling in as starter, but the hope is that starter Aaron Philo will be back in action. Both were listed on the injury report heading into the weekend, meaning Florida will almost certainly have to lean on Jadan Baugh and the ground game. Baugh started off this season on fire, looking like a real Heisman candidate, but he's been held in check in recent weeks. If he regain his form after the bye and this Gator offense can find some balance, this is a group that can put up points. You have to consider, this is not the best Georgia defense we've seen under Kirby, and Florida offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner has had their number in the past in his time at Georgia Tech. Even with all the uncertainty that clouds the quarterback position for Florida, I would not be surprised if this offense puts up more points than expected.
Rivalry games can always get a bit weird, and this feels like a bit like picking between the safer option, or taking a swing. Even after the Auburn loss, we have a fairly good idea who Georgia is - Kirby is as consistent as they come, Stockton may win them a few games late, and they are still top-to-bottom one of the most talented teams in the nation. Florida may be more volatile, but this team can really impress when they are at their best. I still am taking the Bulldogs in this spot given some of the major questions surrounding the Gators, but this is definitely an upset alert heading into Saturday.
The Pick: Georgia, 34 Florida, 24
(22) Arizona Wildcats @ (13) Texas Tech Red Raiders
📍 Lubbock, TX
🏈 Texas Tech -3.5 | O/U 54.5
BYU's upset loss to UCF last weekend leaves the Big 12 absolutely wide open beyond Utah, and either Arizona or Texas Tech could be one of the benefactors as they prepare to collide Saturday afternoon. The Red Raiders were shocked themselves last Saturday by Cincinnati and are looking for vengeance against an Arizona team who is 6-1 and winners of five straight. The winner is firmly back in the Big 12 Title hunt, while the loser is likely playing simply for better bowl position as we head into November.
There are a lot of under-the-radar quarterbacks across the country in college football and yet, I'm not sure there's more underrated than Arizona's Noah Fifita. The senior has gone through some ups-and-downs in Tucson but is having a superb finale of his collegiate career, with over 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns to his credit at this point in the year. Since an underwhelming showing against BYU, he has been on fire, throwing for multiple touchdowns in every game and over 300 yards in three of the last five. He has a fun collection of weapons to work with on the perimeter, and while balance has not been the offense's strength, the backfield is deep and talented. Antwan Roberts Jr. and Quincy Craig may not be your workhorses at tailback, but those two can take the ball to the house at any opportunity, both averaging over seven yards per carry. If this Wildcats offensive line can hold up against this Texas Tech defensive front, Arizona is going to put up points. And, the reality is that this Red Raider defense is not at the level we saw in 2025. There is no Jacob Rodriguez or David Bailey on the roster - Tech can still be nasty and has plenty of future NFL guys, but you can move the ball against them. The greatest difference is that A.J. Holmes is a stud up the middle, but there aren't the edge rushers there were last fall. Holmes is tremendously athletic for his size and likely to disrupt the rushing attack, but I do believe Fifita will have time to throw. Overall, this just feels like a legacy game for Fifita - he's won aplenty with the Wildcats, but he's still without that signature win. Can he seize the moment on the road in this one?
Given the fact their $5 million transfer quarterback was suspended before the season even began, you have to give the Red Raider offense some credit. They've been averaging nearly 36 points per game, and have some real balance. The ground game is still certainly their strength, spearheaded by J'Koby Williams and the duo of Cameron Dickey and Quinten Joyner. That depth does feel crucial the deeper we get into the fall, even with Dickey a bit banged up. This time of year, plenty of power conference teams have no serviceable tailbacks, and Texas Tech has three that could start just about anywhere in the country. Quarterback Will Hammond has also been steady, thrust back into a starting role after the Brendan Sorsby saga, coming off a torn ACL himself. Yet, there's no denying the passing game does miss some pop, even with Coy Eakin and Kenny Johnson on the outside. Hammond has been the best case scenario, but he simply can't make the throws Sorsby could make. And while Hammond has earned the title of game manager in the past, he's had real issues with turnovers. The Wildcats defense, which was once incredibly leaky over the first two seasons of Brent Brennan, has become a real strength. Their competition in recent weeks may not have been the toughest, but the defense has still been stingy. They surrendered just seven points to Cincinnati, while the Red Raiders gave up 37.
Beyond just the football matchup, this is a vibes pick for me. Texas Tech will be hungry after an upset loss, but the energy around the team has been off all season long. Arizona is playing with confidence, they're having fun, and they have to believe they are the better team here. I do think they keep the hot streak going, even heading into Lubbock and coming away with a victory.
The Pick: Arizona, 38 Texas Tech, 34
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