Current Picks Record: 69-47
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Upset: 5-11
Superdogs: 6-4
Locks: 7-6
Big Ten Championship Game: (#2) Indiana Hoosiers @ (#1) Ohio State Buckeyes (Indianapolis)
Line: Ohio State -4
O/U: 47.5
The lone remaining undefeated teams in FBS ball collide this Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium. Ohio State has been on a march towards a second National Title, but they get their greatest test of the fall in this game against the Indiana Hoosiers. The Hoosiers are no lovable underdog this year - they've dominated all season long, and look the part of a National Title frontrunner.
Both of these teams boast elite defenses, but it's still the quarterbacks likely to steal the show in this one. Ohio State's Julian Sayin and Indiana's Fernando Mendoza are locked in a battle for the Heisman, with the winner of this game almost sure to become the national favorite. Sayin has looked in complete control in his first season as starter, shredding defenses to the tune of 3,065 yards an 30 touchdowns. It helps that he is throwing to arguably college football's premier receiver corps, headlined by Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The pair has been banged up late this fall, but appear to be 100 percent at the right time, and you wonder if they have another gear set to unleash now. Smith was impressive all 2024 long, but it was the postseason were he made a name for himself as college football's best receiver - do we see a similar story this time around? Tight end Max Klare offers an awfully impressive complementary piece, and the passing game shouldn't overshadow how impressive the Buckeye rushing attack has been down the stretch. Freshman Bo Jackson has really emerged as the guy for the Buckeyes, as he nears the 1,000 yard mark in his first season of college ball. He's crossed the century mark in four of Ohio State's last five games, and has to be hungry to show what he can do against one of the nation's top defenses. You do have to wonder how Indiana is going to play this one on this side of the ball. The front seven is absolutely elite, a disciplined and violent group that rarely makes mistakes. Yet, this is the toughest challenge yet for the secondary, who hasn't seen a passing offense of this caliber yet this season. The closest thing they came to was likely Oregon, but the Ducks don't have a Smith or Tate on the outside, at least not yet (Dakorien Moore may get there). The Hoosiers are going to make the Buckeyes fight for everything up front, but you do wonder if a breakdown or two on the back-end could break this game wide open.
We've seen Indiana's offense hit another level this season after an impressive 2024, thanks in large part to the addition of Mendoza. Last year's signal-caller, Kurtis Rourke, was rock-solid, a veteran who put the team in position to win games. But, Mendoza is a legit NFL talent with the arm to burn opposing defenses down the field, something he's done early and often in 2025. He benefits from a deep group of playmakers around him, with Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt the top weapons at receiver, while Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black lead the ground attack. Hemby and Black are a pair of powerful runners that can carve up a defense, often setting up speedster Khobie Martin, or sucking in the defense for Mendoza to do his damage over-the-top. This will be a challenge for Indiana in that this Buckeye defense doesn't make the mistakes of other defenses. The Hoosiers are going to need to play a crisp game of football on this side of the ball, and likely be okay playing field position for a decent chunk of this game. You also have to wonder what things look like up front - the Hoosiers have given Mendoza ample protection all season long, but Ohio State is relentless. There may not be a Chase Young or Bosa brother along the Buckeye D-Line this year, but they'll come at you in waves. Add in Caleb Downs on the back-end, essentially the quarterback of this defense, they are impressive in everything they do.
Indiana may not have the endless collection of blue-chip recruits Ohio State has, but they're every bit as good of a football team as the Buckeyes. I get the feeling this is going to be a tight, low-scoring affair into the second half, until Ohio State is able to turn on the burners and separate. Their passing attack is just an advantage when you reach this point of the season, and I'm not entirely convinced the Hoosiers are ready to slow down the two-headed monster of Smith and Tate over four quarters.
The Pick: Ohio State, 28 Indiana, 21
SEC Championship Game: (#3) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#9) Alabama Crimson Tide (Atlanta)
Line: Georgia -2.5
O/U: 48.5