Sunday, January 26, 2025

2025 College Football Way-Too-Early Top 25

Arch Manning, Texas
 1. Ohio State Buckeyes

Is it boring to pick the reigning National Champion as the No. 1 team heading into 2025? Perhaps, but no other team in the country have what the Buckeyes have - not just the nation's best offensive player, Jeremiah Smith, but the top defensive player in the country in safety Caleb Downs. Filling out the roster around those two shouldn't be any issue in Columbus, who remains a machine in both high school recruiting and the NIL game. There will be a new figurehead offensively, with Will Howard completing his one-year rental season as starting QB but with all due respect to Howard, one-time Alabama transfer Julian Sayin feels like an upgrade at the position. He should be counted on for a monster season right away, throwing to the likes of Smith, Carnell Tate, and Brandon Inniss, a former blue-chip prospect himself who should begin to emerge now that Emeka Egbuka moves on. On the other side of the ball, rumors at the time of publishing are that coordinator Jim Knowles may be moving on to the same position at Penn State in a deal that would make him the highest paid defensive coordinator in the country. Ohio State will have the resources to reel in a big-name replacement, but it will be interesting to see how they rebuild a front seven that will be hit hard by NFL defections. Fortunately, he'll have a bunch of former four and five-star recruits to choose from on the depth chart, and I suspect Ohio State will be active in the spring transfer portal window to plug any remaining holes. The Texas Longhorns await in the season opener on August 30 in Columbus, a game that should set the tenor for the entire season for both teams.

2. Georgia Bulldogs

This always felt like a transition year for Georgia, as they managed the departures of Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey offensively, plus several key pieces on the defensive side of the ball. Despite an uncharacteristic three losses and an early College Football Playoff exit, the Bulldogs did still finish as SEC Champs, and one figures they will be back with a vengeance in 2025. Look for Gunner Stockton to take over as starting quarterback now that Carson Beck has taken his talents to Miami, and pair up with rising sophomore Nate Frazier in this Georgia backfield. The Bulldogs will need more from a group of pass-catchers that disappointed all season long, but considering Beck's well-documented struggles, they could all benefit from a new signal-caller getting them the ball. Defensively, coordinator Glenn Schumann is going to have his usual collection of freaks at all three levels. Look for guys who were previously overshadowed to take advantage of newfound opportunities with all the NFL departures, including names like linemen Christen Miller, linebacker C.J. Allen, and defensive back K.J. Bolden. 

3. Texas Longhorns

Two straight appearances in the College Football Playoff semifinals have given Texas the taste of national relevance they have so long craved, but it's clear what the goal is for the program in 2025: a National Title. They'll have to do so without the quarterback that has gotten them to those two consecutive semifinals, Quinn Ewers, although nobody around Austin seems particularly heartbroken about that fact. On the contrary, Longhorn fans are giddy at the chance to finally see Arch Manning running the show after we saw flashes of his playmaking potential throughout this past fall. Manning won't be doing everything alone - Texas could have one of the nation's best running back duos with Quintrevion Wisner and a healthy C.J. Baxter back in the fold. Young playmakers like Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore Jr. figure to be Manning's top weapons at receiver, but I do have concerns about an offensive line that is almost sure to see two linemen drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft this spring in Kelvin Banks Jr. and Cameron Williams. The defense may also have to do some retooling along the line with so many pieces off to the NFL, but the cupboard is far from bare on this side of the ball. Anthony Hill Jr. should be a Butkus Award frontrunner, while Collin Simmons is ready to take over as their most feared edge rusher. Figuring out the secondary will be an offseason priority, as this group took some lumps in 2024 and will now be without reigning Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron.

Sunday, January 19, 2025

College Football Playoff National Championship Prediction 2025

Emeka Ebguka, Ohio State

The first ever 12-team College Football Playoff has just two teams left standing - Ohio State and Note Dame - both of whom will look to cap off the 2024-25 college football season as National Champion. Not only will the victor forever live in college football history for surviving the 12-team field, it feels like both of these programs have something to prove on Monday night. Ryan Day and Ohio State have remained the Big Ten's juggernaut, but four straight losses to arch-rival Michigan and a number of heartbreaking postseason losses have left Buckeye fans hungering for a team that can win the big one. On the other hand, Notre Dame is searching for their first National Title since 1988. Both teams have also faced their share of adversity - Notre Dame's season looked dead after an early September loss to Northern Illinois before ripping off 13 straight wins to get to this point. Ohio State suffered the humiliating loss to Michigan, but also a one-point defeat to Oregon earlier in the regular season that left them on the outside looking in on the Big Ten Title race. Needless to say, there are countless storylines that make this the perfect farewell to this college football season in Atlanta.

Ohio State's offense was held mostly in check by Texas in their semifinal victory, but this unit should still be the best on the field Monday night when these two square off. Clearly, Chip Kelly and Ryan Day have adjusted their gameplan after the baffling showing against Michigan to conclude the regular season, as they've responded with renewed aggressiveness. Quarterback Will Howard is looking to chuck the ball all over the field, and it makes quite the difference when you have the nation's best group of receivers catching the football. Freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith has received all the press as of late for his play in the Playoff, but you can't count out veteran Emeka Egbuka or Carnell Tate Jr. In fact, it feels like Notre Dame's likely outsized focus on Smith is going to open up further opportunities for this cast of receivers, and it would not be shocking if a usually complementary piece has a huge night. The Irish must also contend with the two-headed monster of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson out of the backfield, a pairing that sets the stage for everything Ohio State likes to do on the perimeter. But, beyond just the skill positions, I'd argue the most underrated element of Ohio State's Playoff run has been their offensive line. This is a group that is not playing at 100 percent, namely with center Seth McLaughlin done for the year, but they've done a superb job against three elite defensive fronts over the course of this postseason. Notre Dame and defensive coordinator Al Golden are going to try and dial up some unique blitzes and give the Buckeyes different looks than they've seen this year. The Michigan game certainly provides somewhat of a blueprint, but this Ohio State team is playing at an entirely different level than that group in late November. I do like Notre Dame's chances to at least contain the running game, with their collection of well-rounded linemen and linebackers, but how they handle the passing attack may make all the difference. The Irish have loads of talent on the back-end, including former Buckeye Xavier Watts, but they've been streaky at times in defending the pass. The Irish have not seen a pass offense even close to this level since the USC game - a game where they surrendered 360 yards through the air and 35 points.

As compared to the Buckeyes, the Notre Dame offense is short on star-power and flash. But, they have a clear identity that they execute at an incredibly high level, a testament to not just the players, but how Marcus Freeman has built and shaped this roster. Quarterback Riley Leonard has been tremendous as a one-year rental, as the former Duke transfer has provided the Irish with the dual-threat at the position they've lacked for some time. Leonard isn't going to drop back and throw for 300 yards on any given night, but he does enough to put the Irish in position to win consistently. He's joined in the backfield by the combo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who have set the tone for this offense the entire season. Neither should be intimidated by an Ohio State defensive front that features several future NFL defenders, plus do-it-all linebacker Cody Simon. On the contrary, this feels like an opportunity where they'll elevate their respective games for this moment. They'll certainly be relied on to carry the load, but the Irish will also need someone on the perimeter to really step up. Jaden Greathouse and Jordan Faison have played well through the Playoff, but Notre Dame needs a semblance of offensive balance against this talented Buckeye defense. It feels like the Irish will have their chances through the air, if they're willing to take them. Although Ohio State's pass defense has been strong all season, spearheaded by safety Caleb Downs, their corners have been occasionally struggled. Notre Dame should be willing to take their shots in this game - their often conservative style has worked to get them to this point, but the Buckeyes are a different animal altogether. Of course, Riley Leonard will need time in the pocket for things to develop downfield, and there is reason for concern for this Irish O-Line. The Irish will be without starting left tackle Anthonie Knapp after he went down in the semifinal win. Charles Jagusah, who was slated to start prior to the season before a torn pectoral kept him out for the entire fall, looks like he may potentially have to step in. With the way Ohio State's line has played through this Playoff run, any negative impact from the loss of Knapp could flip this entire game.

These two teams are obviously deserving of being on this stage after what they've done through the 12-team College Football Playoff, but I would not expect a pretty game. Notre Dame is going to try and slow it down and force it into a low-scoring affair, which they've done to great success on the season. The thing is, Ohio State can play that way if they have to. This is an elite defense that has turned it up a notch in the Playoff so far, and they're fine playing the type of field position game the Irish want. Ohio State just has the personnel to match whatever style they need to, in a way that Notre Dame can't. They also seem like a team that is on a special journey, and this is just the final hill to climb. Motivation is never going to be an issue in a National Championship Game, but there's just a feeling you have watching Ohio State that this is the team that's going to be left standing when it's all said and done. I think the Buckeyes will get it done and win their first National Title since 2014 - which just so happened to be the first year of the four-team Playoff. 

The Pick: Ohio State, 28 Notre Dame, 20

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Big Ten Basketball Power Rankings 2024-25: Edition 1

Braden Smith, Purdue
* Records Updated through morning of 1/14/25

1. Michigan State Spartans

14-2 overall, 5-0 Big Ten

We've become accustomed to Tom Izzo's Michigan State teams taking their lumps in the non-conference and early Big Ten play, but this 2024-25 team appears to be different. They've jumped out to a 5-0 start to conference action, punctuated by an impressive victory over Northwestern to cap off the weekend. The Spartans have been fortunate to miss most of the other league heavyweights en route to their strong start, but the way they've came out and taken care of business seems to indicate this team is a real threat to take home the regular season Big Ten crown this winter. The schedule remains favorable through the month of January, but we'll learn a lot about this team with how they handle the February slate. In a stretch from February 4 - 21, five of Michigan State's six games will be against teams currently ranked in the Top 25, including trips Oregon, Illinois, and Michigan.

2. Purdue Boilermakers

13-4 overall, 5-1 Big Ten

A rough month of December, at least by typical Purdue standards, knocked the Boilermakers down the rankings, and they've responded with five straight victories. Much like Michigan State, the Boilermakers have certainly taken advantage of a relatively soft start to their conference schedule, but winning five of six league games is a challenge in any conference, let alone the Big Ten. Junior guard Braden Smith has been the centerpiece of an offense that seems to have figured out their early-season woes. He's always been an elite floor general, but Smith's growth as a scorer so far this season makes this Purdue backcourt a real challenge for opposing defenses. He went for 34, 20, and 22 in a three-game span during this win streak, but still remains one of the country's best passers. In fact, his 8.9 assists per game put him third nationally, behind Louisiana Tech's Sean Newman Jr. and Gonzaga's Ryan Nembhard.

Tuesday, January 7, 2025

College Football Playoff Picks 2024-25: Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl

Quinn Ewers, Texas

Orange Bowl: (7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ (6) Penn State Nittany Lions (Miami Gardens)

Line: Notre Dame -1.5

O/U: 44.5

Few programs in recent college football history have epitomized being good, but not quite good enough, quite like Notre Dame and Penn State. Both have been remarkably consistent, particularly since the mid-2010s, but neither has been able to have their true breakthrough moment. For one of these programs, that will change on Thursday night in Miami Gardens. One team will get the opportunity to move on to the National Championship Game and potentially erase their late-season demons. Will it be the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who recovered from a stunning early September defeat to Northern Illinois to get to this point? Or, will it be the Penn State Nittany Lions, a team that far too often has played third wheel to Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten, but now awaits their biggest game in years? The storylines write themselves, and the first semifinal of the 12-team College Football Playoff should be an exciting game, set to go down to the wire.

Notre Dame spent big over the offseason to bring on offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock from LSU and pair him with Duke transfer Riley Leonard at quarterback. Yet, there's nothing remarkably different with this offense than what we've come to expect from the Irish over the years. They remain a ground-and-pound team that will lean heavily on their defense and bully opponents into submission. Leonard has been rock-solid in much the same mold of an Ian Book, a steady figurehead running the offense who takes care of the football. He'll take the occasional shot down the field, but this is an overall conservative passing attack for the most part. Leonard does give the Irish an edge with his rushing ability, which has been passing at this position in the past for ND, but you do wonder how eager the Irish will be to rush him considering this will be the 15th game on their schedule - and they may just have one more game left. Alongside Leonard, Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love remain a strong duo in the backfield, with either having proven they can handle the load. Love isn't 100 percent after getting banged up in their massive Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia, but should be at a good enough place to still see a heavy workload in this one. Up front, the Irish have looked their usual ferocious selves after a shaky start to the fall, and out wide, it's also a similar story. The Irish don't exactly have a true headliner at receiver, but this is a deep group, and you always wonder if this is the game one of them has a true breakout. Beaux Collins finished as their leading receiver, but you have to feel like Jaden Greathouse and Jordan Faison are the real threats this Penn State defense has to be concerned with. Consistency has been a problem with both, but they have the game-breaking speed to cause real damage if they do get some space. Even so, I don't suspect the Irish will stray too far from their gameplan. They'll look to turn this into a field position game, especially against an aggressive Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions potentially being without star edge rusher Abdul Carter would certainly reduce much of the pressure on this Irish defense, but this is still going to be a methodical approach on the big stage.

Much like Notre Dame, the Nittany Lions brought on a new play-caller over the offseason, and it has been instrumental in them being one of the four teams still alive in the National Championship hunt. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki hasn't completely revamped this side of the ball, but he's done a superb job maximizing Penn State's strengths and zoning in on key mismatches. This still remains an offense that will lean on their ground game to fuel them, with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen being one of the nation's top combos, but QB Drew Allar has also made significant strides in his junior season. Penn State has been limited in that they don't have a true alpha at the receiver position, but they've made do with their short and intermediate stuff. Of course, it helps when they have the John Mackey Award winner at tight end in Tyler Warren, who will line up just about anywhere and should be a key player to hone in on for coordinator Al Golden. Warren's mere presence, and ability to move around in unique formations constantly keeps defenses on their toes, and often opens up opportunities for the other weapons on this roster. He'll obviously get the ball no matter what, but I am curious to see how the rest of this Nittany Lion receiver corps plays against an Irish secondary that is among the best in the nation. However, that's not to say Notre Dame has looked indestructible on the back-end - they were gashed by USC down the stretch and if not for several pivotal drops by Georgia receivers, likely would have given up serious yardage to the Bulldogs. You get the feeling Penn State is going to get one or two major opportunities through the air in this game, and if they're able to capitalize in a way Georgia was not, it could certainly swing this game in their direction.

The similarities between these two run deep. It's not just two historically great teams that are looking to climb the mountaintop once again for the first time since the 1980s, but they also play a similar brand of football. They want to establish the run and play ball control offensively, rely on a physical defense, and do just enough to come out victorious. There's nothing particularly pretty about either team, but there's no reason to doubt their effectiveness - they're both sitting one win away from a National Championship Game after all. It feels like this is going to a nail-biter where one or two big plays is going to make all the difference, a true coin flip. Coaching may make all the difference in a game like this, and I've been incredibly impressed by what Marcus Freeman has been able to do in important, close games throughout his short Notre Dame tenure. Despite his relative lack of experience compared to James Franklin, I simply trust him more. And I trust him to bring the Irish to their first National Championship Game in over a decade on Thursday night.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 24 Penn State, 21