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| Brandon Miller, Alabama |
Ceiling: NBA Superstar
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Unicorn-esque athletic build, well-rounded offensive game, elite rim protection ability, calm demeanor and poise
Weaknesses: Slender frame, injury background
In the social media age, just about every big-name NBA prospect receives an exorbitant amount of hype and attention, but French forward Victor Wembanyama is in a whole different stratosphere. The way you hear NBA folks talk about him, Wembanyama could be the greatest basketball player of all-time, a true, once-in-a-generation unicorn. Even if you apply some level of scrutiny to him, he does check all the boxes you need as the top prospect in this Draft. At 7'2"-7'4" (depending which measurement you believe), he's got the size and length, but has the type of fluid, well-rounded offensive game that you rarely see at his position. Wembanyama is the type of player that should produce no matter which system you put him in and defensively, there's little question that he's going to be a disruptive presence. He will need to add some weight to survive a rugged NBA schedule, but it's reasonable to be excited about what he can bring to the pro game.
2. Scoot Henderson, G, G League Ignite
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Ferocious athleticism, powerful offensive game, high energy two-way player
Weaknesses: Inconsistent jump shot, shaky decision-making
In most years, Scoot Henderson would be the clear-cut top prospect but in the 2023 cycle, he's been relegated to more of a "Robin" role to Wembanyama's "Batman." That's not to take away from Henderson, a prospect who I like a lot and don't believe the gap between one and two is as wide as many seem to think. I've said it before, but Henderson reminds me so much of a younger Russell Westbrook, a hard-edged competitor with the type of athleticism that can make your jaw drop. Much like Westbrook coming into the NBA, there are plenty of areas of his game to smooth out. The jump shot needs refinement and Henderson's eagerness to make plays sometimes gets him into trouble, but that's true of many players his age. He does feel a bit more system dependent than Wembanyama, but whoever lands him will be getting an impact contributor with a bright future.
3. Brandon Miller, F, Alabama
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Elite shot-maker with range, versatility to play and defend multiple spots, active on-ball defender
Weaknesses: Off-the-court questions, needs to add weight to frame
Brandon Miller's lone season in the collegiate ranks will likely always be defined by the off-court controversy and his link to a fatal shooting in Tuscaloosa. But, the reality is that Miller was the best freshman in college basketball this winter and NBA teams love what he brings to the table - it's unlikely he'll fall outside the Top 3. At 6'9" with a 6'11" wingspan, Miller has an ideal build to be able to play either forward spot at the next level and contribute on both ends. He's a tremendous scorer who will take and make the difficult shots and defensively, he's an active player who gets his hands in passing lanes or block shots. In many ways, Miller is a perfect forward for the modern game and should be able to fit in nicely no matter which team he ends up on in the pros.
4. Amen Thompson, G, Overtime Elite
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: High
Strengths: Electric offensive playmaker, elite distributor, savvy feel for the game
Weaknesses: Very inconsistent jump shot, competition questions
There may not be two greater mysteries in this Draft than the twins, Amen and Ausar Thompson. Although there's more game tape on the pair than some of the international prospects, it's so hard to gauge their competition and evaluate how they'll be able to adjust to the NBA. Even so, I think Amen Thompson would be worth the risk, as long as you understand what you're getting here. He's going to be an instant playmaker, the type of court general that could one day lead the league in assists. But, the jump shot is just so far from where it needs to be, it's hard to imagine Thompson ever becoming a passable shooter in the NBA. There's also some well-documented struggles at the free throw line, which is always a cause for concern. I don't think Amen Thompson is going to ever be the type of player that can solely carry an offense, but instead be the type of floor general that makes everyone around him better. Your hope here is that he's more Rajon Rondo than say, Frank Ntilikina. That's how wide of a range you're talking about here, and why the NBA Draft is so notoriously difficult to predict.
5. Gradey Dick, G/F, Kansas
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Smooth offensive game with a crisp jumper, active off-ball shot creator, versatility
Weaknesses: Good, not great athlete, average to poor defender
There's a drop-off here after the top four prospects, but I remain a huge Gradey Dick fan. He's proven he can handle any role you throw at him, whether you want him to be the main offensive creator, or whether you want him to slide into more of a complementary role. In the NBA, he's almost certainly going to be more of the latter, but he's more than just a shooting specialist. He can get to the rim and finish and his constant activity offensively makes him a real pain to defend. I like the comparison to Duncan Robinson in some ways, although I believe Dick's athleticism and versatility mean that his ceiling is significantly higher than that of the Miami Heat sniper. Now, that doesn't Dick doesn't have areas to grow, most notably defensively. He has the physical tools to be a solid defender, but it feels like his instincts and feel on that end are a bit off. The NBA team that does draft him is going to need to get rid of some bad habits if he wants to become a regular starter in the pros.
6. Jarace Walker, F, Houston
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Relentless rebounder on both ends, ideal offensive build, defensive ability
Weaknesses: Average to poor shooter, offensive game is still fairly limited
The more I see Houston's Jarace Walker the more I like him, and the sentiment seems to be echoed among the NBA community. Walker has gone from a fringe lottery possibility to a likely Top 5 pick, an impressive rise for a prospect that put up rather pedestrian numbers during his time with the Cougars. This isn't a guy who is going to go out and drop 30 points a night, but he does the little things so well that contribute to winning and there's some untapped potential here. Walker is a frenetic rebounder who always seems to be in the right position. He's rarely the biggest guy on the court, but his feel for the game and constant motor make him a reliable factor. The same can be said about his defensive presence; he can match up with just about every type of player and make their night difficult. As for his offense, he's a solid scorer who is efficient about the rim, but it doesn't feel like he's going to ever be a floor-spacer. That doesn't mean Walker can't grow and evolve that into his game, but you're looking at more of a complementary piece that knows his role and plays it to perfection here.
7. Ausar Thompson, G/F, Overtime Elite
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: High
Strengths: Bouncy athlete who will finish, otherworldly quickness, defensive upside
Weaknesses: Limited offensive game, questionable fit, competition questions
The other Thompson twin, Ausar, is likely to go a bit below his brother but is still likely to land somewhere in the mid-lottery. It's understandable why there are some concerns with Thompson; his jump shot is an even greater question than his brother, but he doesn't bring as much proven playmaker. He's still a thrill to watch in transition who will bring plenty of highlight reel plays to the equation, and the defensive potential is clear. Your hope is that he's a "3-and-D" guy at the next level, although his shooting is so suspect, it's hard to know how much of that three-point shooting will factor in. There's significant bust potential here and I'd much rather prefer a high floor piece like Dick or Walker, if they were available. Yet, some NBA team is going to take a chance on him and there's no question that he does bring his fair share of positives to the table.
8. Bilal Coulibaly, G/F, France
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Immense offensive upside, impactful defender, tantalizing athlete
Weaknesses: Offensive game needs rounding out, sloppy ball-handler
While Victor Wembanyama is the lock to go No. 1 overall, his LNB teammate, Bilal Couliably, is one of this year's fastest risers. The French wing is still raw, but you can see flashes of his offensive upside when he plays. He's not a shot creator at this point in his career, but actually shoots solid numbers from three and can be a very capable spot-up shooter. At the very least, his defense makes him worthy of lottery consideration, as he's a high energy perimeter defender who can switch off and defend multiple spots. Adding an impactful defender like Coulibaly would be a dream for a contender later on in the first, but something tells he won't be lasting super long come Thursday night.
9. Nick Smith Jr., PG, Arkansas
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Lightning quick, smooth scorer with an impressive handle, instant playmaking ability
Weaknesses: Streaky shooter, needs to add bulk
Entering the 2022-23 college basketball season, Nick Smith Jr. looked like an All-American candidate and likely Top 5 selection in the upcoming NBA Draft. Unfortunately, Smith dealt with injuries during his short stint at Arkansas and now looks like he'll end up somewhere in the mid-first round. Even so, I'm high on the explosive lead guard, who reminds me a bit of John Wall coming out of Kentucky. He may not have Wall's speed in the open court, but he's a lightning fast guard who can immediately jolt an offense. There are limitations in his game, but it feels like like they can be ironed out in the right system. Smith is an inconsistent shooter but shot good percentages throughout high school, and has a smooth-looking jumper. The more important thing for him at the next level will be adding muscle to his frame; although he has ideal size for an NBA lead guard, he doesn't quite use it to his advantage. He was able to get away with it in high school and college, but that will not be the case in the pros.
10. Taylor Hendricks, F, UCF
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Versatility, efficient scorer, strong shooter, energetic rebounder
Weaknesses: Competition questions, overall ceiling
Although he didn't enter college with much fanfare, UCF forward Taylor Hendricks appears to be trending towards a lottery lock. He put put together an impressive lone season with the Knights, averaging over 15 points per game, while shooting 39% from three. He is the type of modern forward that NBA teams are looking for; at 6'8" with solid athleticism, Hendricks has the versatility to help out just about everywhere. Add in the shooting, and you get a player that you know is going to provide quality minutes in whichever role he finds at the next level. Even the concerns about him seem to be fairly limited as compared to others at his position. Sure, he wasn't playing against elite competition in the American Athletic ranks, but it isn't like Hendricks was playing against mid-major talent, either. The ceiling may not be at the level of others likely to be drafted around him in the mid-to-late lottery, but the high floor is what makes him an attractive prospect.
11. Cam Whitmore, G/F, Villanova
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Explosive athlete, top-tier finisher, versatile defender
Weaknesses: Jump shot needs refinement, shooting is a major concern, lack of winning impact
12. Anthony Black, G, Arkansas
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Tremendous playmaker, ideal positional versatility at 6'6", impact defender, plays up to any role
Weaknesses: Cannot create his own shot, poor free throw shooter, offensive game needs rounding out
13. Brandin Podziemski, G, Santa Clara
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Deadeye shooter (43% 3-point in college), creative offensive playmaker, decent defender
Weaknesses: Competition questions, average athleticism, "tweener" at this point in his career
14. Jalen Hood-Schifino, G, Indiana
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Unstoppable scorer when he's on, ideal size for the modern NBA, overall offensive upside
Weaknesses: Streakiest player in this Draft, decision-making, seems to take plays off defensively
15. Keyonte George, G/F, Baylor
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Buttery smooth jump shot, potent pull-up shooter, polished finishing ability
Weaknesses: Size and fit in NBA, good but not great athlete
16. James Nnaji, F/C, Nigeria
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Powerful low post presence, expansive wingspan (7'7"), elite rim protector potential
Weaknesses: Very raw offensively, limited upside on offense, has not played heavy minutes at professional level
17. Cason Wallace, G, Kentucky
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Capable offensive creator, elite on-ball defender, effective spot-up shooter
Weaknesses: Undersized for modern NBA at 6'2" (although 6'8" wingspan is a selling point), average shot creator, hampered by injury problems
18. Jett Howard, G/F, Michigan
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Modern wing with "3-and-D" potential, NBA bloodlines, creates his own offense
Weaknesses: Very poor defender, too slow to guard elite wings, needs to land in the right system
19. Noah Clowney, F/C, Alabama
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Active rebounder on both ends, floor-spacing potential, upside as rim protector
Weaknesses: Gets into foul trouble far too easily at this stage of his career, lacks explosive athleticism
20. Kobe Bufkin, G, Michigan
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Upside as "3-and-D" dynamo, positional versatility, smooth jumper and polished offensive game
Weaknesses: Needs to add weight, strong shooting numbers are in smaller sample size
21. Dariq Whitehead, G/F, Duke
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: High
Strengths: Potential to be an offensive force, physical tools, offensive upside is there but his game is rough around the edges
Weaknesses: Collegiate numbers speak for themselves, seemed fine taking a backseat at Duke, how will injuries impact his developmental timeline?
22. Kris Murray, F, Iowa
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Efficient scorer, capable scorer from every spot on the court, makes winning basketball plays
Weaknesses: Athleticism is not at an NBA level, almost sure to be a complementary piece or role player
23. Dereck Lively II, F/C, Duke
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Proven rim runner, powerful defender who should be able to acclimate to NBA physicality quickly, ideal size
Weaknesses: Offensive game is very limited at this point in his development timeline, needs to become a more intelligent defender
24. Leonard Miller, G/F, Canada
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: High
Strengths: 6'9" with 7'2" wingspan but will play multiple spots, impressive ball-handler for his size, staggering athletic potential
Weaknesses: Arguably the most mysterious prospect in this Draft, completely unproven beyond high school ranks, despite his size he plays smaller than he is
25. Brice Sensabaugh, G/F, Ohio State
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Well-rounded offensive game with proven scoring ability, mechanically sound jump shooter
Weaknesses: Other areas of his game are unproven, slow-footed defender, shined on a bad Ohio State team - is he the type of player that will put up numbers that don't actually move the needle towards winning?
26. Trayce Jackson-Davis
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Proven pedigree, extremely polished around the rim, good athlete with high motor
Weaknesses: One of the older players in this Draft and nearing 24 years of age, potential is capped at this point in his development
27. Jordan Hawkins, G, UConn
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Deadeye shooter, more of a spot-up shooter but can create his own looks, can play off-ball very effectively
Weaknesses: Fairly average athlete, was his play in the National Title run an aberration or a sign of things to come?
28. Maxwell Lewis, G/F, Pepperdine
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: "3-and-D" qualities, freakishly long, will be an instant impact defender
Weaknesses: Will not create for himself off the dribble, defensive consistency, competition questions
29. Rayan Rupert, G/F, France
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: High
Strengths: Another wing who checks boxes as a "3-and-D" possibility, arguably the best perimeter defender in this Draft, relentless competitor
Weaknesses: Offensive game is exceptionally raw, will need significant time to round out, jump shot is far away
30. Olivier-Maxence Prosper, F, Marquette
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Bouncy athlete, powerful finisher around the rim, run running ability
Weaknesses: Offensive game is limited, will not create his own offense, more of a complementary piece
31. G.G. Jackson, F, South Carolina
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: At just 18 years of age has plenty of time to figure it out, moves very well for his size, physical tools are there
Weaknesses: Very streaky offensive player, decision-making needs significant work, feels like a bit of a "tweener"
32. Julian Strawther, G, Gonzaga
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: One of the best pure scorers in this Draft, a fearless shot-maker, versatility
Weaknesses: Will shoot you out of as many games as he keeps you in, mediocre to bad defender
33. Colby Jones, G/F, Xavier
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Well-rounded offensive game, effective distributor and playmaker, fits nicely into whichever role is necessary to win basketball games
Weaknesses: Ceiling is capped, okay but not great athlete, spot-up shooting is incredibly inconsistent
34. Ben Sheppard, G, Belmont
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Sharpshooting wing with a quick release, "3-and-D" upside, free throw shooting was suspect in the collegiate ranks
Weaknesses: Athleticism is average at best, still a streaky shooter, competition questions
35. Jaime Jaquez, G/F, UCLA
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Winning basketball player, relentless competitor, hard-nosed offensive playmaker with excellent touch in the paint
Weaknesses: Will not space the floor with his shooting, what position does he play in the NBA?
36. Jordan Walsh, G/F, Arkansas
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Physical tools, extremely effective in transition both ways, 7'2" wingspan makes him a factor everywhere on the court
Weaknesses: Jump shot is far away from NBA levels, both three-point and free throw shooting is shaky
37. Sidy Cissoko, G, France
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: "3-and-D" qualities, pesky on-ball defender, plenty of potential as a passer
Weaknesses: Shooting mechanics need significant work, has not proven an ability to create a shot
38. Andre Jackson Jr., G/F, UConn
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Elite defensive prowess both on and off-ball, will rack up steals and blocks, bouncy athlete
Weaknesses: Has not been asked to handle an offensive load and hasn't proven he can, spot-up shooting is inconsistent at best
39. Terquavion Smith, G, NC State
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Moderate
Strengths: Explosive scorer, tremendous shot creator, lead guard qualities defensively
Weaknesses: Three-point shooting is streaky, undersized for the pros, combo guard who doesn't have a clear fit in the NBA
40. Marcus Sasser, G, Houston
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
Strengths: Proven himself as a leader, scoring prowess, unlimited range from three, ability to make contested shots
Weaknesses: Incredibly streaky shooter, another "tweener" in the pros, does he have the build to survive in the NBA?
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