Thursday, November 10, 2022

2022 College Football Picks: Week Eleven

Jase McClellan, Alabama
Current Picks Record: 55-35

Upset: 4-6

Superdogs: 5-5


(#9) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#11) Ole Miss Rebels

Line: Alabama -11.5

O/U: 64.5

Alabama heads into Week Eleven of the 2022 college football season in unfamiliar territory with two losses already on their record. Even so, they still have an outside shot at an SEC West Title, but can't afford another loss as they go on the road to face the 11th-ranked Ole Miss Rebels. The 8-1 Rebels are also firmly in the division title hunt, but considering LSU owns the tiebreaker over them, it's not unreasonable to think they may have to win out.

It's been all about the ground game for Ole Miss so far this fall, as tailback Quinshon Judkins has been one of the nation's biggest surprises. The true frosh has already surpassed the 1,000 yard mark and doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon, as he ran for 205 in their victory over Texas A&M to close out the month of October. Junior Zach Evans hasn't been 100 percent for a big chunk of the year but remains a dynamic piece alongside Jenkins, while quarterback Jaxson Dart has also proven he can make things happen with his legs. Dart, however, will need to prove his worth as a passer to help Ole Miss come out on top, especially as they go up against a questionable Crimson Tide secondary. Dart has been hesitant to take shots down the field and turnovers have been a problem, but he does seem to be getting more comfortable each and every week. He's no Hendon Hooker or Jayden Daniels, but has the physical tools to cause the Tide some headaches. Dart and company are also going to need help from their offensive line, which has been inconsistent. Alabama may not be as deep as they usually are up front, but Will Anderson, Dallas Turner, and the rest of this defensive front can still create plenty of chaos.

We've gotten used to explosive Alabama offenses under Nick Saban, but that simply is not the case with this 2022 team. Quarterback Bryce Young has tried to manufacture big plays, but the supporting cast simply has not shown up week-to-week. Even Young has fallen back to Earth a bit after his 2021 dominance, as he's dealt with injuries and shaky decision-making. Even so, the reigning Heisman winner remains one of the sport's signature stars and will be a constant pain for this Rebel defense. He's joined in the backfield by Jahmyr Gibbs, who's become a frontrunner for the Doak Walker Award with his recent play. Gibbs isn't quite the runner that past 'Bama tailbacks have been, but what he adds as a receiver has been crucial for the Tide this year, particularly when you consider how underwhelming this receiver corps has been. Beyond Ja'Corey Brooks, this has arguably been the worst receiver corps of the Saban era, with a complete lack of playmaking. Georgia transfer Jermaine Burton has been quiet, the trio of Traeshon Holden, Isaiah Bond, and Kobe Prentice haven't been consistent, and Tyler Harrell has been hurt. Young is still going to create, but you can tell he's trying to force plays this year, and LSU got to him last week. The Rebels may not boast the defensive talent of the Tigers, but this is a much improved group and they should be up for the challenge.

It's fair to wonder if this is the worst Saban-coached Alabama team since 2008. The defense is still extraordinarily talented but has notable holes and the offense is very un-Alabamalike. All the signs point to a strong Ole Miss team coming out on top at home, but logic says differently. Saban will have his boys ready and extra motivated, and I'm not entirely sure Ole Miss is as good as their record indicates. I'll take the Tide in this one; I can't imagine a Saban team heading into the home stretch of the season with three losses.

The Pick: Alabama, 34 Ole Miss, 21


(#25) Washington Huskies @ (#6) Oregon Ducks

Line: Oregon -13.5

O/U: 73

Oregon-Washington doesn't get as much attention from the national media as it should, but it's one of the sport's most heated rivalries. It should be awfully rowdy once again in 2022 and has plenty of meaning, with Oregon on an inside track towards their first CFB Playoff appearance since 2014.

We tend to expect the unexpected in college football every year, but who could have honestly predicted this season from Bo Nix? The Auburn transfer has gone from a "meme" among the college football community to one of the best quarterbacks in the country and a legit Heisman contender. He's totaled nearly 3,000 yards of total offense and has 35 total touchdowns to his credit, and it hasn't been beating up on weak opponents, either. He went for five passing touchdowns against UCLA and notched a total of six against a routinely strong Cal defense a week later. Nix has been at the forefront of a super fun offense that also includes Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington out of the backfield, an underrated tailback combo. Both former transfers, the pair is averaging over six yards per carry and puts constant stress on opponents. There also remains hope that sophomore Byron Cardwell, who began the year as the feature guy, could also return for this one, although that seems unlikely. On the outside, Troy Franklin remains the name to watch, although he has been in held the last few weeks. Chase Cota, a nice complement to Franklin, missed the Colorado game and is questionable to return here, as well. That could be an issue for Oregon, but they remain a tough matchup for this Washington defense. It's hard to get a read on this side of the ball for the Huskies; they have plenty of talent, namely along the defensive front, but it has not always shown up on the field. Are they the ones that are going to stop Nix, which no team save Georgia has been able to do?

Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer is considered an offensive savant, and it's really shown with what he's been able to do with the Husky offense in one offseason. A group that was among the worst in Power Five football a year ago, Washington is now averaging nearly 39 points per game and has the country's top passing offense. Leading that passing offense is Indiana transfer Michael Penix, who is the very definition of a gunslinger. He's got a huge arm and has never been afraid to take his shots, which has occasionally caused issues, although his five interceptions on 391 attempts are not a bad number. Penix is helped out by a fun receiver corps that includes Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja'Lynn Polk. Odunze is the top pass-catcher, but McMillan and Polk can also challenge defenses vertically. One-time Michigan transfer Giles Jackson is also a fun watch, as the 5'9" speedster can do a lot of different things. The ground attack is nothing to ride home about, but Wayne Taulapapa helps keep some semblance of balance in this offense. How will the Ducks fare against Penix and the Huskies? This has been a very strong secondary over the past nine-plus weeks, but this is a unique challenge. However, I like their chances of forcing some turnovers and creating extra possessions for Nix, which could spell real doom for Washington.

There should be plenty of offensive fireworks when these two collide, so it's no surprise that the over/under is set at 73. Washington will be a tough foe, but Oregon has been on an absolute tear since that season-opening loss to Georgia and they get the Huskies in the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium. If the defense can do just enough to slow down Penix and company, the Ducks should roll.

The Pick: Oregon, 38 Washington, 28 (Washington cover)


(#22) UCF Knights @ (#17) Tulane Green Wave

Line: Tulane -1.5

O/U: 54.5

One storyline not receiving much attention this college football season surrounds whichever team is going to represent the Group of Five in the New Year's Six. There's no obvious candidate this fall but UCF and Tulane are considered two of the top contenders, as are Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina. We will receive some clarity on this after this weekend, with UCF traveling to New Orleans to meet up with Willie Fritz and the Green Wave.

Tulane has been a great story in 2022, off to an 8-1 start and ranked for the first time in over two decades. They've done so behind a balanced offense and opportunistic defense that has come up big in some of their toughest matchups. Leading the offense is junior quarterback Michael Pratt, a solid but rather boring signal-caller. Pratt isn't going to be chucking the ball all over the field, but the Green Wave are most effective when he's taking care of the ball and making tight, accurate throws. It's his backfield mate, tailback Tyjae Spears, that is the main source of explosive plays for Tulane. After a slow start to the campaign, Spears has been unstoppable over the past month, including three straight games of at least 100 yards. Alongside him are two change-of-pace options, Iverson Celestine and Shaadie Clayton-Johnson, who won't create as many big plays but provide a three-headed approach on the ground. At receiver, the trio of Deuce Watts, Shae Wyatt, and Jha'Quan Jackson should put plenty of pressure on the Knights defense. Wyatt in particular can challenge defenses vertically in a way nobody else on this roster can, as he's averaging over 19 yards per reception. Overall, it's not an offense that is going to be putting up 40 points on a regular basis, but Fritz has an effective group here and UCF has questions defensively. Although they don't give up a lot of points, they do give up a lot of yardage, and it's fair to wonder if this bend-not-break defense will hold against a Top 20 team.

The Knights are a bit more creative with what they do offensively than the Green Wave, thanks to Gus Malzahn. There's a lot of versatility to this offense and at the helm, John Rhys Plumlee is one of the most entertaining players to watch in college football. With that being said, Plumlee isn't 100 percent; he missed the game against Memphis last Saturday and his status for Saturday is still in doubt. If he isn't able to go, UCF turns to Mikey Keene, a sophomore who went for 219 yards and three touchdowns a week ago. Keene is a very good backup quarterback, but he's not as dangerous with his legs as Plumlee, which limits this offense quite a bit. Fortunately, there's plenty of help from this supporting cast, including dynamic receiver Ryan O'Keefe. O'Keefe is one of my personal favorites in the college football world; he's a threat to score every time he touches the ball and watch out for him on sweeps or other gadget plays, as Malzahn loves to get him involved. Former SEC transfers Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson have also been helpful weapons in the passing game, while Isaiah Bowser and R.J. Harvey fuel the rushing attack. However, the key for UCF may be on the O-Line, where they have to handle a physical Tulane front seven. This has been a decent line so far this season, but the Green Wave do present a challenge. They also feature a ball-hawking secondary that's short on star players, but has no shortage of game-changers.

The line indicates Vegas feels like this is about a toss-up and I couldn't agree more. Tulane is a more balanced, well-rounded team but I still believe they're in store for one more loss this regular season. UCF on the other hand can score in bunches, but they have to go on the road, possibly without Plumlee. With that in mind, I'll take the Green Wave in a close one, making them the Group of Five favorite and likely elevating them into the Top 15 for the first time since 1998.

The Pick: Tulane, 28 UCF, 24


Other Picks

(#4) TCU @ (#18) Texas -- The Longhorns remain frightfully streaky, but they are likely the Big 12's best when they're playing well. This is the game to prove it, and I think they have a good shot to end TCU's perfect season in Austin.

The Pick: Texas, 38 TCU, 34

Purdue @ (#21) Illinois -- A game that will likely decide the Big Ten West, Purdue-Illinois features two opposing styles. The Illini looked out-of-sync last week, but I trust their defense and star back Chase Brown to power past the Boilermakers.

The Pick: Illinois, 27 Purdue, 20

(#1) Georgia @ Mississippi State -- Mississippi State held on to beat Auburn and reach bowl eligibility last weekend, but I don't envision an upset here. Georgia's secondary is good enough to slow down Will Rogers and the Bulldog passing attack.

The Pick: Georgia, 35 Mississippi State, 17

(#7) LSU @ Arkansas -- Certainly a game with great "hangover" potential after LSU's massive win over Alabama, but Brian Kelly should have his team ready to go and Arkansas has been playing very poor football over the past month.

The Pick: LSU, 28 Arkansas, 23

Upset: Wake Forest over (#15) UNC -- Wake Forest has made me look like a fool the last two weeks, so why am I triple-dipping? UNC has won close game after close game, but their luck is going to catch up to them at some point, and I still have serious questions about this defense.

The Pick: Wake Forest, 49 UNC, 42

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Indiana (+41) @ Ohio State -- Ohio State should head into the Michigan game undefeated, but they're still figuring things out offensively, especially on the ground. Indiana has traditionally played them tough and should be able to cover this huge spread.

The Pick: Ohio State, 42 Indiana, 14


Sunday, November 6, 2022

College Basketball Preview 2022-2023: Big Ten

Malik Hall, Michigan State

Football season may be in full swing, but the 2022-2023 college basketball season is right around the corner. I begin my preview series with the Big Ten Conference, a league that is regularly among the best nationally, but is still searching for their first National Title since Michigan State in 2000. With the league boasting some of the sport's biggest stars and adding several big-name transfers over the offseason, it looks like another deep year for the league, but the lack of an overwhelming frontrunner creates plenty of intrigue as we near tip-off.


1. Illinois Fighting Illini 

The Illinois Fighting Illini have become a model of consistency in the Big Ten, with three consecutive seasons finishing fourth place or higher in the conference under head coach Brad Underwood. However, they're still searching for postseason success, as they were sent home before the second weekend once again this past spring. The '22-'23 team might not have the headline stars of the past several teams, but this group is arguably deeper and more balanced. With an injection of talent from the transfer portal and high school ranks, they are my pick to take home the Big Ten Title.

BACKCOURT: A pair of newcomers are expected to command most of the attention in the backcourt in true frosh Skyy Clark and Texas Tech transfer Terrence Shannon Jr. Clark is one of the highest-rated players to ever sign with the Illini and he's an explosive offensive weapon. His youth may be a detriment in the league, but there's no denying his talent, and he should be able to acclimate quickly. It will help that he has a veteran presence next to him in Shannon, a Chicago native who was a three-year contributor for the Red Raiders. A 6'6" playmaker who can also handle the ball, Shannon will be featured heavily in this offense, but turnovers were a problem area for him last season and he'll need to clean it up. Illinois will also count on sharpshooter Luke Goode, who will play a valuable floor-spacing role that will open up lanes for Clark and Shannon.

FRONTCOURT: Kofi Cockburn was one of the most physically imposing bigs we've seen in recent memory. However, the Illini are hopeful that some of the young pieces on the frontline can step up and replace Cockburn, who recently signed to play for a Japanese professional team. Sophomore R.J. Melendez is more of a wing than a true big, but the Illini will be counting on him all the same. Despite playing just 8.5 minutes per game a season ago, he flashed major upside and is a popular breakout candidate. Junior Coleman Hawkins is another player who has been in the program for several years still awaiting his true breakthrough. He's always been a high energy player who can defend multiple positions, but his offensive game needs to round out if he's to hit his full potential. Much like Shannon, there's an infusion of Big 12 talent here in Matthew Mayer, a 6'9" combo forward. Mayer played a major role on the 2021 Baylor National Title team, but his role seemed to diminish a year ago. He can play both ways and add shooting ability, although his three-point numbers slid down the stretch in 2022. Then there's Dain Dainja, another former Baylor Bear who is a completely mystery right now. Dainja is an imposing presence on the block, but he's played a total of less than ten minutes in his collegiate career up to this point.

BOTTOM LINE: Even though the Illini lose several program staples, notably Cockburn and guard Trent Frazier, there's a lot of talent on this roster. Clark and Shannon should provide plenty of fireworks in the backcourt and the frontcourt has a bunch of potential, even if most of it is unproven. Plus, Underwood is among the best coaches in college basketball, a true technician calling the shots. Without a clear favorite, that makes Illinois my pick to win the league and advance to the second weekend of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Elite Eight


2. Michigan Wolverines

Michigan entered last season with a bunch of hype, thanks in large part to the return of big Hunter Dickinson and the arrivals of several highly touted newcomers. Unfortunately, things took a long time to gel, and after some early struggles, they finished the season strong. An 11-9 mark in the Big Ten helped them earn a spot in the Field of 68 and they were able to pull off wins against Colorado State and Tennessee before exiting in the Sweet 16. It wasn't quite the year fans were hoping for in Ann Arbor, but demonstrated that even a down year under Juwan Howard could yield solid results.

BACKCOURT: Once again, Michigan dipped into the transfer portal to help shore up their guard play, as they added Princeton transfer Jaelin Llewellyn. Llewellyn was asked to do a lot for Princeton, primarily as a scorer, but the Wolverines are hoping he can be more of a distributor. He'll play a crucial role, because this backcourt is very short on experience around him. Newcomer Dug McDaniel has earned rave reviews, as has Juwan's son, Jett, but neither are proven commodities. Sophomore Kobe Bufkin could be a breakout candidate at shooting guard, but he doesn't bring the shooting element that long-time contributor Eli Brooks did.

FRONTCOURT: Junior Hunter Dickinson is one of the best players in college basketball and a legit National Player of the Year contender. He's always had great touch around the rim, but his growth as a shooter and leader has taken him to another level. With so much youth on this team, Dickinson is going to play an even larger role this season. It will be interesting to see who emerges alongside him in the frontcourt now that Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate are gone. Junior Terrance Williams has shown flashes and plays well beyond his 6'7" frame, but it hasn't all come together just yet. Perhaps newcomer Youssef Khayat could play an immediate role, as the Lebanese product has been playing in Europe for several years. Duke transfer Joey Baker will also bring much-needed help, particularly as a shooter. With that being said, he suffered through some truly horrifying shooting stretches while in Durham, so regaining his confidence will be important.

BOTTOM LINE: There are certainly questions on this Michigan team, but having a bonafide star like Dickinson elevates their floor. Llewellyn could end up being an improvement over Devante' Jones, who had a brutal year in 2021-22, while plenty of intriguing talent arrives through the high school ranks. National Title contention is probably too much to ask for this season, but the Wolverines can certainly battle for a Big Ten Title and have another strong showing in the NCAA Tournament.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Sweet 16


3. Indiana Hoosiers

It was an up-and-down campaign in Mike Woodson's first season in Bloomington, as the Hoosiers enjoyed tremendous highs and frustrating lows. Even though they finished sub-.500 in the league, a run to the semifinals in the Big Ten Tournament earned them a spot in the "First Four" and they promptly beat Wyoming. Although they lost to Saint Mary's in the first round, even making the NCAA Tournament was a success for Woodson and company. Now, the Hoosiers enter 2022-2023 as one of the league's favorites, primarily because of the return of Trayce Jackson-Davis. How do they handle the added pressure?

BACKCOURT: There's plenty of experience returning in the Hoosier backcourt, headlined by senior Xavier Johnson. The former Pitt transfer started all 34 games for Indiana a year ago and averaged 12.1 PPG while shooting 38% from three-point. Alongside him will be veterans Trey Galloway and Tamar Bates, who were both featured heavily off the bench in 2021-22. Both suffered through significant ups-and-downs as shooters a season ago, but their experience should be a major asset come conference play. Coming in to add playmaking is five-star combo guard Jalen Hood-Schifino, who was a major get for this staff out of the state of Florida. His jump shot will need some refinement for him to become a key contributor, but his athleticism and explosive off-the-dribble make him a fun watch.

FRONTCOURT: There might not be a more significant returnee in college basketball this season than Trayce Jackson-Davis. The senior has started every single game for the Hoosiers the last three years and earned a host of accolades, including All-Big Ten last season. After briefly joining the NBA Draft, his return gives Indiana a proven scorer who is always active around the rim. He'll compete with Hunter Dickinson and others for Big Ten Player of the Year and other recognition. Indiana also returns former Northwestern transfer Miller Kopp, a deadeye shooter who should be featured even more heavily in '22-'23 after taking a backseat. Add in Race Thompson and Jordan Geronimo, and this may be the deepest and most talented frontcourt in the league. Thompson is a high-energy player who can defend multiple positions, while Geronimo has flashed serious upside and could be a breakout candidate.

BOTTOM LINE: An NCAA Tournament appearance was a fine debut for Mike Woodson, but expectations have risen significantly in Bloomington. With the star power on this roster and the Big Ten wide-open, Hoosier fans are thinking conference title. That may be a bit too much to ask for right now, but this should be a second weekend NCAA Tournament team and the best Indiana team since the early Tom Crean days.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Sweet 16


4. Purdue Boilermakers

Few programs in college basketball are as consistent as the Purdue Boilermakers, as they've played in every NCAA Tournament since 2014 (with the obvious exception of the cancelled 2020 event). However, Matt Painter is still longing for the type of postseason success others in the conference have enjoyed, as the loss in last year's Sweet 16 to 15-seed Saint Peter's was a major disappointment. The 2022-23 team could be the one to change that, although there will be growing pains as this roster gels.

BACKCOURT: Purdue's backcourt this year will be among the least experienced Painter has ever had, but that doesn't mean there isn't plenty of talent. Juniors Brandon Newman and Ethan Morton will be forced to play leading roles as the offense says goodbye to superstar Jaden Ivey. Newman saw his minutes decrease significantly last season but should be in for a redemptive campaign, while Morton is the type of elite perimeter defender that has defined past Painter teams. Joining those two will be several newcomers, including Utah transfer David Jenkins and freshmen Fletcher Loyer and Cam Heide. Jenkins was a solid contributor in the Pac-12 but will have to adjust to the physicality of the Big Ten, while Loyer and Heide are quite the talents. Purdue is hopeful one of them can take over the vacancy left by Sasha Stefanovic, an elite volume shooter.

FRONTCOURT: There's a big loss (literally) in the Boilermaker frontcourt now that Trevion Williams is gone, but 7'4" Canadian Zach Edey looks like to be the next great Purdue big. He averaged over 14 PPG last season despite teams looking to get him in foul trouble at every opportunity, and it sounds like he's in great shape heading into the season. He'll be joined up front by junior Mason Gillis and sophomore Caleb Furst. Gillis is a bit undersized but plays well beyond his size and could be ready for greater things, while Furst is an impressive talent who should be capable of more minutes. Redshirt freshman Trey Kaufman-Renn is another name to watch, as the Indiana native was destined for immediate minutes last year before an injury cost him the season. He was back to 100 percent by the spring and should a healthy dosage of action.

BOTTOM LINE: Losing a combination like Ivey and Williams is difficult for any team to overcome, but Painter has earned the benefit of the doubt. It seems like he exceeds preseason expectations every single season, and it wouldn't shock if that's the case again this year. The youth movement in the backcourt won't be easy, but a strong frontline should be able to keep the Boilermakers in the hunt for a Big Ten Title.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Second Round


5. Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State had a tremendous start to the 2021-22 campaign, with a 13-4 record highlighted by a win over Duke. However, the team faded down the stretch, as .500 mark in their final 12 of the regular season left a bad taste in many fan's mouths. They still won an NCAA Tournament game, capping off a solid, but rather unremarkable campaign for Chris Holtmann and company. After 10 players departed the program over the offseason, the Buckeyes will have their work cut out for them, but there are plenty of reinforcements on the way.

BACKCOURT: The most notable loss in the backcourt is Malaki Branham, a Columbus native who averaged 13.7 PPG before becoming the 20th overall selection in this summer's NBA Draft. He wasn't just a capable scorer, but an efficient one who shot 50% from the field. Holtmann and the Buckeyes will turn to several newcomers to replace his production, including Oklahoma State transfer Isaac Likekele and West Virginia transfer Sean McNeil. Likekele is likely to take over lead-guard duties and proved to be a solid player while at Oklahoma State, while McNeil is a tremendous shooter who should play an important role spacing the floor. A pair of freshmen should also be asked to contribute right away in Bruce Thornton and Roddy Gayle Jr. Thornton is likely to play plenty of point guard this year and has potential to be a real difference-maker.

FRONTCOURT: Up front, the Buckeyes say goodbye to one of the best players in recent program history, E.J. Liddell. Liddell developed into a real offensive force over his time with the Buckeyes, going from a guy who didn't start a single game in '19-'20, to a player who notched 19.4 PPG and 5.7 RPG a year ago. Ohio State is not going to find a single player who can match his offensive production, instead hoping for a committee approach. One name that should see plenty of usage is wing Justice Sueing, who can also handle the ball. Sueing was a pleasant surprise in 2020-21 but played just two games a season ago, scoring a total of 12 points. He'll be asked to carry a much more significant offensive load, as will big man Zed Key. Key's another player that plays much larger than his 6'8" frame, but his offensive game is rather one-dimensional and OSU will need more growth this year. Beyond those two, there's a whole bunch of questions, although there is freshmen help here in the form of Felix Okpara and Brice Sensabaugh.

BOTTOM LINE: Ohio State has been remarkably consistent under Holtmann, but it was a rather tumultuous offseason in Columbus. Fortunately, the healthy return of Sueing and the additions of Likekele and McNeil are likely good enough for a return to the NCAA Tournament, but anything beyond that likely hinges on the immediate play of this talented freshmen class.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Second Round


6. Michigan State Spartans

Much like Ohio State, Michigan State was a Big Ten team with a strong start to the season who faded down the stretch. They still earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament but offered little resistance to Coach K and Duke and were promptly eliminated. Unsurprisingly, there's plenty of turnover here, but also plenty of potential for Tom Izzo. 

BACKCOURT: The Spartans feature one of the best backcourt combos in the Big Ten, with A.J. Hoggard and Tyson Walker. The pair had their share of ups-and-downs a year ago, but complement each other very well and can create instant offense. Walker in particular seemed to find his groove later on in the season after a rough adjustment to Big Ten play following his transfer from Northeastern. Alongside them is a potential breakout candidate in Jaden Akins, who played in all 36 games but averaged under 15 minutes per. His shot didn't quite translate to the collegiate level many had hoped, as his field goal and free throw percentages were incredibly underwhelming, but he's got a lot of physical tools. Freshman Tre Holloman is a name to keep an eye on, as he should be able to provide a nice spark off the bench.

FRONTCOURT: There's some notable turnover in the MSU frontcourt, namely the departures of Julius Marble and Marcus Bingham, but also many familiar faces. Forwards Malik Hall and Joey Hauser are both very experienced and are proven commodities. Hauser has seemed to struggle with confidence but he's a versatile player who can really shoot it, while Hall has always had the physical gifts, but hasn't completely put it together just yet. The Spartans remain hopeful that center Mady Sissoko can finally break out this year after two quiet seasons on the roster. Originally from Mali, Sissoko was a well-known recruit, but he's played minute averages of just 5.4 and 4.5 in his first two years in East Lansing. His offensive game may never round out, but he has the tools to be a quality rim protector.

BOTTOM LINE: It's been two consecutive "down" years by typical Michigan State standards, but this team could be much improved. The foursome of Hoggard, Walker, Hall, and Hauser are all veterans who know their way around the league, but the lack of depth could be a concern. The frontcourt especially is extremely thin, which is a major concern considering how talented this league is up front. I still have faith Izzo can deliver a successful season, but this team's ceiling is probably capped at about the Sweet 16.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Second Round


7. Iowa Hawkeyes

An explosive offense fueled an impressive 2021-22 in Iowa City, capped off with a Big Ten Tournament Title over Purdue. However, the March Madness demons that have haunted Fran McCaffery since taking over the Hawkeyes returned once again, as they were subsequently shocked by 12 seed Richmond in the first round. This season won't be easy without superstar Keegan Murray, but plenty returns, including Keegan's younger brother and rising star, Kris.

BACKCOURT: After what felt like one of the longest careers in college basketball history, Jordan Bohannon has moved on, as has combo guard Joe Toussaint. That leaves a slight leadership gap in the Iowa backcourt entering the 2022-23 campaign, but the trio of Tony Perkins, Ahron Ulis, and Connor McCaffery are more than capable. Perkins emerged as a very reliable contributor last season and could be an offensive focal point if his shooting is able to improve, while Ulis has a lot of natural tools. There's nothing flashy about the way McCaffery plays, but he's the type of player every coach wants; he defends, plays hard, and is a natural leader. Add in talented true freshman Dasonte Bowen, and there's a lot to like about this backcourt, which should be much more dynamic and fun-to-watch than past editions.

FRONTCOURT: Not even the most optimistic Iowa fan likely saw Keegan Murray's jump coming last year. Sure, he was a popular breakout candidate, but to evolve into one of the most dominant players in the sport? It's a testament not only to Keegan but this coaching staff, which continues to develop elite forwards. The next one in line could be Kris Murray, who came on strong in the second half last season and plays a similar brand of basketball to his older brother. With that being said, Kris might end up being a better three-point shooter than his brother, giving him a diverse offensive game that should be awfully effective. There's plenty to like around him, including Peyton Sandfort, Patrick McCaffery, and Filip Rebraca. Sandfort is ready for a lot more after playing 10.5 minutes per game as a freshman, and I'm still holding out belief in McCaffery, who has had the occasional flash but has yet to put it together over long stretches. Rebraca's extremely limited on the offensive end, but his defensive presence is huge for this team, particularly once they hit Big Ten play.

BOTTOM LINE: This feels like a pretty standard Iowa team under McCaffery; they'll be a tough out in the league, finish around the middle-of-the-pack in the standings, and make the NCAA Tournament. Anything more than that likely requires not only a huge year from Kris Murray, but also one or two other breakout pieces to develop. That seems unlikely, but the Hawkeyes are always feisty, and they could do damage in a wide-open league.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: First Round


8. Wisconsin Badgers

Wisconsin spent most of the 2021-22 season near the top of the Big Ten standings and were another team that ended the regular season, although two consecutive losses to Nebraska and Michigan State indicated they still had their notable flaws. They earned a three seed and managed to get past a tough Colgate team in the first round, but the offense disappeared a game later against Iowa State. The two teams shot under 35% from the field and the Badgers hit just 9% of their three-pointers, dooming them in a 54-49 loss. The defeat put a damper on an otherwise successful year, but a rebuilding 2022-23 could be on the horizon.

BACKCOURT: Love him or hate him, Brad Davison was a staple of the Badger backcourt for a half-decade. His graduation coincides with the departure of reigning Big Ten Player of the Year Johnny Davis, who averaged 19.7 PPG in '21-'22. Fortunately, the Badgers have a rising star remaining in the backcourt in Chucky Hepburn, already a proven lead guard as a sophomore. Hepburn was extremely impressive down the stretch and his injury in the loss to Iowa State was a real killer for the team. Entering this season as one of the team's most proven weapons, he has All-Big Ten potential. However, things are fairly underwhelming beyond him, with the possible exception of Johnny's younger brother, Jordan, and veteran shooting guard Jahcobi Neath. Jordan played in 27 games last year but is a shell of his brother, while Neath suffered through horrific shooting slumps a season ago.

FRONTCOURT: Improved depth should be huge for the Wisconsin front-line, as they were one of the thinnest they've ever been during the Greg Gard era. Combo forward Tyler Wahl is the leader, a proven senior who has gotten better each year and plays 100 percent every time he's on the floor. He'll be a focal point of this offense, as will big Steven Crowl. Crowl isn't the flashiest player on the court, but the seven-footer can rebound, has nice touch around the rim, and isn't a poor shooter. After seeing his role expand in a big way last year, even more could be expected. Junior Carter Gillmore and Estonian transplant Markus Ilver should also see an increase in minutes this year.

BOTTOM LINE: The core of Hepburn, Wahl, and Crowl give the Badgers a fine starting point, but a program like this doesn't lose players like Johnny Davis too often. He was a reliable bucket every game and as defenses keyed in on him, shooting lanes opened up for others. Even so, Gard and Wisconsin are ever-consistent, and this feels like another NCAA Tournament team.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: First Round


9. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

From 1992-2020, Rutgers did not participate in a single NCAA Tournament (albeit they would have earned an invite in 2020 had the event not been cancelled). Since then, head coach Steve Pikiell has delivered a pair of trips to the "Big Dance" and the Scarlet Knights nearly advanced to the second weekend in 2021. Clearly, the program is at a completely different level than they were when they first joined the Big Ten, but keeping the momentum going won't be easy, especially with a number of key pieces moving on.

BACKCOURT: Guard Paul Mulcahy was quietly one of the Big Ten's breakout stars a season ago, upping his averages in every category and shooting the ball well across the board. Now, Rutgers is hopeful the senior can be even better as they move forward without program stalwarts Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker. Mulcahy is an underrated playmaker and a real irritant on the defensive end, but has to improve his decision-making to reach the next level. The same can be said about Caleb McConnell, who has flashes of brilliance, but can also be extremely frustrating. Now a fifth-year senior, it's about time for McConnell to show what he can fully do. Beyond those two, youngster Jalen Miller and Loyola Maryland transfer Cam Spencer will be the primary pieces off the bench.

FRONTCOURT: Is this the year Cliff Omoruyi truly asserts himself as one of the best big men in the league? After an up-and-down first season with the team, Omoruyi began to emerge last season, notching 11.9 PPG and 7.8 RPG. His offensive game still needs to round out, but there's no denying he's become a force on the block, and he has the talent to be even better. Unfortunately, there's not a ton of proven commodities around him, at least not yet. The trio of Aundre Hyatt, Dean Reiber, and Oskar Palmquist all played last season and could see expanded roles. Junior Mawot Mag could also see extended minutes, although his shooting numbers dropped significantly in 2021-22.

BOTTOM LINE: The Scarlet Knights are never one of the most talented teams in the league, but they're incredibly frustrating to play. Pikiell always has his teams playing hard, and Jersey Mike's Arena (aka "The RAC") is among the most underrated venues anywhere in college basketball. Another trip to the NCAA Tournament is a real possibility, but a slight rebuild could be in order as new pieces work their way into the rotation.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: NIT


10. Maryland Terrapins

One of the longest hot seats in recent college basketball history concluded last season when Maryland finally moved on from Mark Turgeon. Turgeon was a source of great frustration for many Terp fans, but his departure does mark quite a transition, as he coached the team since 2011. Now, it's time for Kevin Willard, who spent over a decade at Seton Hall and won 225 games. Willard joins a program with major potential, but it may take a year or two before things really get rolling in College Park.

BACKCOURT: It's not just the coaching staff that turned over this offseason, Maryland is replacing a bunch of pieces, namely in the backcourt. Gone are names like Eric Ayala and Fatts Russell, replaced by transfers Jahmir Young and Donald Carey. Young comes over from Charlotte, where the Maryland native averaged 19.6 PPG and shot 47% last year. Carey is on his fourth school, with previous pit stops at Mount St. Mary's, Siena, and Georgetown. The pair are likely to handle most of the backcourt minutes, with holdover Hakim Hart and yet another newcomer, Patrick Emilien, handling things on the wing. Emilien is another player who has made treks through the college basketball world, including stops at Western Michigan and St. Francis Brooklyn. 

FRONTCOURT: Things are a bit more settled up front, but not by much. Forward Donta Scott is an important returnee, as the senior knows the program and led them in minutes a year ago. He's a solid player, a capable scorer who can bang down low despite not being the largest or most athletic. Sophomore Julian Reese is also back after averaging 17 minutes per game in 2021-22, but depth is a concern. Three-star forward Noah Batchelor could see immediate playing time, as a decent shooter with good size (6'10").

BOTTOM LINE: This is probably the biggest mystery in the conference entering 2022-23. Willard proved to be a terrific coach at Seton Hall, but the Big Ten is always a bit of an adjustment, and there are so many fresh faces. Young and Carey could provide some offensive fireworks and Donta Scott gives them a nice building block, but it's hard to imagine this team being a serious contender this year. A trip to the NIT would mark a solid debut campaign for Willard and company.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: NIT


11. Penn State Nittany Lions

No team in the Big Ten has a longer NCAA Tournament drought than the Penn State Nittany Lions, who haven't appeared in the sport's premier event since 2011. In fact, PSU hasn't won a Tournament game since all the way back in 2001. Yet, the program is hopeful that second-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry will be the one to lead them back into contention in the conference, and he did an admirable job in Year One. Despite replacing an interim coach and suffering through a frustrating non-conference, Shrewsberry helped Penn State deliver a 7-13 conference mark, which could set the stage for a postseason trip this season.

BACKCOURT: There's good news and bad news in the Penn State backcourt. While they lose one of their top scorers and sources of offense in Sam Sessoms, who transferred, they return veteran guards Jalen Pickett and Myles Dread. Pickett, a former transfer from SIU-Edwardsville, started every single game for the Nittany Lions last year and despite a rollercoaster shooting season, provided plenty of offense. Dread is the type of hard-nosed, gritty player that fits what Shrewsberry is trying to build here. A pair of transfers, Andrew Funk and Camren Wynter, could also provide a nice spark to this offense. Funk comes over after averaging over 17 PPG at Bucknell, while Wynter arrives from Drexel. Both are accomplished in the mid-major ranks, but how will their games translate to the Big Ten?

FRONTCOURT: Forward Seth Lundy is one of the most underrated players in the league when he's on, but the senior had some real struggles down the stretch a season ago. If he can regain his shooting stroke, Penn State has a dynamic scorer who can play and defend multiple spots. Either way, he'll play a leading role in a frontcourt that is very thin without long-time big John Harrar. Denver transfer Michael Henn is expected to see notable minutes right from the get-go and junior Caleb Dorsey will also see his role expand. However, there really isn't a true, low-block big on the roster, which is a major concern in this league.

BOTTOM LINE: It takes time to build a program, but Shrewsberry is hoping the addition of several notable transfers can help PSU contend for the postseason and speed up the process. There is some interesting talent on this roster, but the frontcourt is a major concern, as is three-point shooting. A buttery smooth non-conference may help the Nittany Lions stay in the postseason hunt, but it feels like it's too early for that this year.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: None


12. Minnesota Golden Gophers

Roster turnover is a reality of modern college basketball but even when you consider that, Minnesota was facing down brutal odds a season ago. Following a season-ending injury to forward Isaiah Ihnen, the Golden Gophers had just one player, big man Eric Curry, who had played a single minute on the 2020-21 team, although guard Payton Willis had previously been with the program. Naturally, the Gophers struggled and slipped to the Big Ten basement, but the fight the program showed and success on the recruiting trail has many Minnesota fans (including me) dreaming of a brighter day in the Twin Cities.

BACKCOURT: Minnesota was razor thin back here a year ago, and it may be even worse in 2022-23. Dartmouth transfer Taurus Samuels and Morehead State transplant Ta'lon Cooper bring much-needed experience and will both see big minutes. Neither are going to score a lot of points, but should be able to run the offense well enough. Beyond those two, freshman Braeden Carrington was the lone scholarship guard on the roster, before walk-on Will Ramberg earned one over the offseason. Carrington is awfully talented, but will he be ready for significant minutes so early?

FRONTCOURT: This was the weak spot on Minnesota's roster a year ago, but head coach Ben Johnson brought on some necessary reinforcements. Former George Washington transfer Jamison Battle is a holdover from last year's team who proved to be their most consistent source of offense. The junior has a knack for making difficult shots and paced the Gophers with 17.5 PPG on 45% shooting a year ago. He has a chance to be an All-Big Ten player this season, although he may not have the ball in his hands quite so often. That's because Johnson managed to land one of the biggest names in school history in Dawson Garcia, a former five-star prospect. Garcia averaged 13 PPG for Marquette back in 2020-21 before a one-year stop at North Carolina, but decided to return home due to a sickness in the family. Minnesota hasn't had a player of his caliber in awhile, but how does he adjust to the physicality of the Big Ten? With unfortunate injuries to Ihnen and Parker Fox for the second straight year, it's a whole lot of youth behind Battle and Garcia. Sophomore center Treyton Thompson showed flashes a year ago but is still a project, and then there's freshmen Jaden Henley, Kadyn Betts, Joshua Ola-Joseph, and Pharrel Payne. This foursome comprises one of the most talented recruiting classes in program history, but it wouldn't be shocking to see serious growing pains. Payne has been receiving significant offseason attention and Betts may have the highest ceiling on this roster, but he reclassified and should technically still be a high school senior.

BOTTOM LINE: Minnesota has been a program ripe with potential for a long while, but building a winner here has proven to be difficult. Johnson seems to have the program on the right path, but it's likely to be another year in Minneapolis. At the very least, Minnesota fans should take solace in seeing two MN boys light up opposing defenses in Garcia and Battle, and the recruiting class should inject energy into Williams Arena.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: None


13. Northwestern Wildcats

Northwestern head man Chris Collins will forever be a legend at the school for guiding the program to their first NCAA Tournament in history back in 2017. Since then, it's been a whole lot of frustration, as the Wildcats have not sniffed a winning season since that '17 season. Collins enters 2022-23 on a flaming hot seat and more turnover over the offseason has things looking rather dire in Evanston right now.

BACKCOURT: There is ample experience in the backcourt, which should fuel the Wildcat offense this year. Senior Boo Buie was second on the team in points per game a season ago and will now be expected to shoulder an even heavier load. Northwestern is hoping he can become more consistent, as he has shot under 40% each year he's been in Evanston. Alongside Buie, the Wildcats will also feature wing Chase Audige and combo guard Ty Berry. Berry saw his role expand in 2021-22 and proved to be a capable shooter, while Audige is a steady vet looking to regain his previous form after a down campaign last year. It's not the Big Ten's most imposing trio, but a quality group that should be able to put up points. However, the depth behind them has taken a hit over the offseason, meaning youngsters Nick Martinelli and Blake Smith could see early minutes.

FRONTCOURT: Northwestern was hit hard by two important transfers, both departing for greener pastures in the ACC. Pete Nance, the team's top scorer a year ago and most consistent offensive weapon, opted to head to Chapel Hill and play his final year of college basketball at North Carolina. Big man Ryan Young also chose to head to the state of North Carolina, instead playing for Duke. Without those two, it's hard to envision what the Wildcats will look like in the frontcourt. Senior Robbie Beran is the lone returning big name; he started 30 games a season ago and has proven to be a solid contributor. Can he reach a next level his final year at Northwestern? UTEP transfer Tydus Verhoeven is also in line to start after coming over from Conference USA. He wasn't a prolific scorer at UTEP, but offers nice touch around the rim and defensive upside. Junior Matthew Nicholson, who averaged under five minutes per game last year, could also be ready to play significant minutes. The seven-footer could eventually grow into something, but he's been used sparingly his first two seasons on campus.

BOTTOM LINE: Keeping the trio of Buie, Audige, and Berry in town can keep Northwestern a feisty bottom-tier team in the league, but it's hard to imagine their ceiling being much higher than that without Nance and Young. There simply is not enough in the frontcourt to realistically compete in the physical Big Ten, and depth is also a concern. Collins may be able to keep this team fighting deep into the season, but a postseason trip feels unlikely.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: None


14. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Despite an overall record of 24-67 and 9-50 in the Big Ten, Fred Hoiberg was brought back for a fourth season in Lincoln, Nebraska. The former Iowa State and Chicago Bulls head coach simply has not been able to build a competitive roster at Nebraska and it feels like he's running out of time. The 2022-23 team might be his last chance, and the absence of the McGowens brothers doesn't make the prognosis look very reassuring.

BACKCOURT: Sophomore C.J. Wilcher should be one of the 'Husker's primary sources of offense, as the gunslinging guard proved he could really stroke it a year ago. Wilcher averaged 8.1 PPG while shooting 46% from the field and over 40% from three-point territory. He'll be joined in the backcourt by North Dakota State transfer Sam Griesel, a Lincoln native. Griesel was a four-year contributor at NDSU, including putting together a tremendous 2021-22, and should provide a steady hand at point guard. With Quaran McPherson likely to miss the entire year, Emmanuel Bondamuel and Keisei Tominaga will be the top two pieces off the bench. Both are excellent shooters and Tominaga has become a fan favorite for his deep range. In addition, freshman Ramel Lloyd Jr. was a huge get for the 'Huskers, a Sierra Canyon (CA) product who should provide quality minutes off the bench.

FRONTCOURT: The biggest news of the offseason for Hoiberg was the return of Derrick Walker Jr., who will use his extra COVID year in 2022-2023. The senior is an imposing presence on the block and one of the most efficient players in the conference. He's not going to go out and get 20 and 10 a night, but is the type of contributor that has often alluded Nebraska during the Hoiberg and Tim Miles years. Junior Juwan Gary is a name to watch, as the former Alabama transfer comes with quite the pedigree. He was a quality contributor on several really strong Alabama teams, but how does he fit this Nebraska offense? At the very least, he's an energy guy who can defend multiple positions. Wilhelm Breidenbach is a unique piece; he doesn't have the look of a star forward, but he was a big-time get from California powerhouse Mater Dei and showed flashes of brilliance a year ago. He's known as a great shooter, which should help open things up underneath for Walker and company.

BOTTOM LINE: There are some interesting pieces on this Nebraska roster and this team could surprise people, but it's hard to know what their ceiling is. Hoiberg likely has to deliver a postseason berth, but rising out of the cellar in this conference is easier said than done, particularly with how deep the middle of the Big Ten appears. The more likely scenario is Nebraska hovers around the cellar once again, with a league win every once in awhile giving fans something to cheer about.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: None


All-Big Team Teams

First

G Chucky Hepburn, Wisconsin

G/F Terrance Shannon Jr., Illinois

F Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana

F Hunter Dickinson, Michigan

C Zach Edey, Purdue

Second

G Jaelin Llewellyn, Michigan

G Tyson Walker, Michigan State

G/F Kris Murray, Iowa

F Jamison Battle, Minnesota

F/C Cliff Omoruyi, Rutgers

Freshman

G Skyy Clark, Illinois

G Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana

G/F Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State

G/F Jett Howard, Michigan

C Tarris Reed, Michigan


Superlatives

Player of the Year: Hunter Dickinson, Michigan 

Freshman of the Year: Skyy Clark, Illinois

Coach of the Year: Matt Painter, Purdue

Friday, November 4, 2022

2022 College Football Picks: Week Ten

Brock Bowers, Georgia
Current Picks Record: 50-31

Upset: 4-5

Superdog: 5-4

Lock: 3-6


(#1) Tennessee Volunteers @ (#3) Georgia Bulldogs

Line: Georgia -8

O/U: 66.5

There may not be a more important college football game this fall than the top-ranked Tennessee Volunteers squaring off against third-ranked Georgia. The Vols have been the story of the 2022 campaign, with five victories over ranked teams and their first No. 1 ranking since 1998. In order to continue their run to a National Title, they have to get by the reigning National Champion Georgia Bulldogs, who haven't been quite as dominant this year as the 2021 team, but remain one of the top teams in the nation.

Through the first nine weeks of the season, Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker looks like the Heisman favorite. He's put up eye-popping numbers all season long and seems to play his best in the biggest moments, evidenced by his five touchdown showing against Alabama. He leads college football's most dynamic offense, a group that uses the entire field and plays at a truly relentless pace. On the outside, Jalin Hyatt has emerged as the premier weapon, but Tennessee has plenty of others that can overwhelm opposing defenses. Cedric Tillman is finally healthy after missing most of the season, while Bru McCoy has finally shown the playmaking prowess that made him such a coveted recruit when he left high school. It's a fun group of receivers, a group that fits this offense perfectly with their ability to create after the catch. Add in the underrated running back duo of Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright, and it's no surprise Tennessee has overwhelmed every defense that has stood in their way so far this season. Will that remain the case against this Bulldog defense? There's never been a shortage of talent on this side of the ball, but UGA received tough news this week: star linebacker Nolan Smith will miss the rest of the year with a torn pectoral. The reality is that this defense isn't as talented top-to-bottom as last year's group, although you could argue the secondary is nearly at 2022 levels. It's still probably the best unit Tennessee has faced this season, but it still feels like the Vols are going to put up points, and it's on Georgia's offense to match.

It some time for Georgia to figure out their offense in the weeks following their domination of Oregon, but they appear to have found their rhythm. They went for 42 against Auburn, 55 against Vanderbilt, and then 42 against Florida over the past month and seem to be playing with more confidence. Sure, those three aren't exactly a murderer's row of elite defenses, but considering some of the issues UGA was struggling through in the first month of the season. Stetson Bennett remains the man at the controls and while turnovers have still been an occasional problem, there's no denying he's elevated his play from last season. It helps that his supporting cast has stayed healthier this year, and he has one of the sport's most dangerous weapons in tight end Brock Bowers. The sophomore is fresh off a five-catch, 154-yard performance against Florida and the Volunteers don't have a single player on their roster that can match up with him. Along with Bowers, the Bulldogs can also feature Ladd McConkey, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, and 6'7" behemoth Darnell Washington. It's a passing attack that is currently eighth in the country, but you better believe Kirby Smart and this coaching staff are hoping to find more balance. This has long been a program that has leaned on the ground game, but the trio of Daijun Edwards, Kenny McIntosh, and Kendall Milton haven't cut it. Fortunately, they should have opportunities against an inconsistent Tennessee defense. In fact, Georgia's offense as a whole matches up favorably against Tennessee's defense, which has made strides this fall, but can still be a weakness. To be fair, no defense in college football is on the field more, but they are still prone to the big play, and this is a tough matchup for the secondary.

Tennessee conquered some demons and proved themselves as a program by beating Alabama earlier in the season. But, what are the chances they're able to defeat both Alabama and Georgia in the same season, especially going to Athens? I have little doubt the Volunteers will put plenty of points, but the Bulldogs feel like the more balanced team overall and getting Tennessee, "Between the Hedges" makes them the safer selection.

The Pick: Georgia, 38 Tennessee, 34 (Tennessee cover)


(#6) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#10) LSU Tigers

Line: Alabama -13.5

O/U: 56.5

Georgia-Tennessee is undoubtedly the game of the weekend in the SEC, but Alabama-LSU still has major implications in the SEC West. Alabama recovered from the Tennessee loss by manhandling Mississippi State and is coming off a bye, while LSU has been a pleasant surprise in Brian Kelly's first season, winning six of their last seven games to put themselves in division title contention.

The bye week was huge for the Crimson Tide, as it gives Bryce Young another week to recover the shoulder that he originally hurt in the win over Arkansas. Despite not operating at 100 percent, Young remains one of the sport's premier superstars, and he has once again carried the Tide offense in 2022. He's gone for over 700 yards and four touchdowns over his last two starts, but has been a bit more hesitant to make plays as a runner, stripping away an element of the Tide offense. Fortunately, they happen to have one of the nation's most exciting running backs next to him Jahmyr Gibbs, who can terrorize defenses as a runner and receiver. After a slow start to the season, Gibbs has arguably been the best back in the country the last several weeks and stopping him will be a primary focus of the LSU defense. Those two will carry the Alabama offense once again, but will somebody in the receiver corps finally step up? It's been an extremely disappointing year for a program that has produced Biletnikoff Award winner after Biletnikoff Award winner. Ja'Corey Brooks has been their top guy, but this offense would be significantly more intimidating if pieces like Jermaine Burton and Traeshon Holden showed up regularly. Alabama's offensive line has also been a bit of a conundrum; there's no denying the talent here, but consistency has also been a problem. How do they handle a powerful LSU pass rush, one that includes ferocious end/linebacker B.J. Ojulari?

After an underwhelming first start at LSU in the Florida State, quarterback Jayden Daniels has been one of the best in the SEC this fall. He's completing 70% of his passes, has thrown just one interception on 236 attempts, and also leads the team with 524 rushing yards. He won't take too many shots down the field, but he's demonstrated tremendous accuracy and his ability to create with his legs should be a real concern for the Tide. Nick Saban-coached teams have occasionally struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, and Daniels can really bust open games; he has six rushing touchdowns in his last two games. Daniels will need help around him, which has been an occasional problem for the Tigers this year. Malik Nabers is another player who had a rough opener and has put together an impressive campaign as the team's top receiver, and Kayshon Boutte is one of the nation's best when he's playing focused. However, the lack of a rushing attack beyond Daniels has really limited what this offense can be. Junior Josh Williams has carried the load the last several weeks and is their top non-Daniels rusher, but the healthy return of Armoni Goodwin likely leaves him as the feature way. Either way, it's a fairly mediocre group of tailbacks going up against a strong Alabama defensive front; plenty is going to be on Daniels' shoulders in this one.

This is going to be quite a test for an Alabama team that has no margin for error if they want to return to the CFB Playoff. Not only has LSU been flaming hot, they happen to get the Crimson Tide in Baton Rouge. With that being said, Jayden Daniels is no Bryce Young, even if he's been terrific, and I trust Saban to have this team ready coming off a bye. 

The Pick: Alabama, 35 LSU, 21


(#4) Clemson Tigers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Line: Clemson -3.5

O/U: 44

It hasn't always been pretty, but Clemson remains undefeated and on track to return to the College Football Playoff after a one-year hiatus. They have a favorable schedule the rest of the way, but a team that could stand in their way is Notre Dame, as they must travel to South Bend. It's been a rocky Year One for Marcus Freeman and the Irish, but they've been a tough out as of late and Notre Dame Stadium is always a raucous atmosphere.

Although Clemson benched quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei in favor of freshman Cade Klubnik in their win over Syracuse, the expectation is that "D.J. U" will continue as the starter. Uiagalelei can still be inconsistent, but he's shown real growth in 2022 and has one of the ACC's best. His arm strength has never been a question, but he seems to be playing with more confidence and his ability to create as a runner has helped open up this Tiger offense. He's formed quite the duo with tailback Will Shipley out of the Clemson backfield, and the O-Line has also looked revitalized after a down 2021 by typical Clemson standards. They should once again fuel the Tiger offense, although they do face a strong physical front in Notre Dame. The Irish produce front-seven talent at an impressive clip and the rush defense numbers have also been solid. Clemson will take their shots down-the-field against a good, but not great, Notre Dame secondary, but the aerial attack struggled against Syracuse. Antonio Williams and Joseph Ngata provide a formidable 1-2 punch at receiver, but the Tigers are even scarier when Beaux Collins and their tight ends are adding playmaking ability. Collins has been nonexistent in recent weeks and it's anybody's guess whether Jake Briningstool and Davis Allen will be factors week-to-week, despite their immense talent. At the end of the day, the offensive success does probably fall on Uiagalelei's shoulders, as simplistic as that may sound. Does last week's benching impact his confidence? Nobody has ever doubted his talent, but the mental game has seemed like a challenge for the signal-caller and games add an extra element.

Notre Dame's defense has carried them for most of the year, but the offense will need to have a fine performance for them to pull off an upset. It's been a very disappointing year on this side of the ball for play-caller Tommy Rees and the entire unit, which hasn't been helped by the fact starting QB Tyler Buchner is out for the year. Backup Drew Pyne is okay and can make things happen with his legs, but the passing game has really suffered and they've been rather one-dimensional. Tight end Michael Mayer provides plenty of playmaking as one of the nation's best, but he can only do so much. Others are going to have to show up, which has been a regular problem. The ground game has been decent, with Audric Estime being a pleasant surprise. He doesn't have the game-breaking ability of past Irish tailbacks, but Estime is their most productive offensive weapon not named Mayer. Unfortunately, he goes up against one of the nation's best defensive fronts, a deep, ferocious group stocked full of future NFL guys. Pyne is going to make things happen with his arm, but who else can open things up vertically beyond Mayer? Lorenzo Styles is their second leading receiver, but he's been held in check the last several weeks and Clemson can key in on him. Behind him, there's a whole lot of experience and this Tiger secondary is healthier than they were earlier in the season, when they were getting shredded by opposing offenses.

The over/under for this game in unsurprisingly set at a low 44, which indicates both team's strengths defensively and inconsistencies offensively. With that being said, I trust this Tiger offense significantly more, particularly if D.J. Uiagalelei is able to come back firing. There's simply more weapons on this side of the ball, and I don't think they'll be intimidated playing in South Bend. Plus, Clemson is fresher, taking last week off, while the Irish had a hard-fought win over 'Cuse.

The Pick: Clemson, 27 Notre Dame, 14


Other Picks

(#24) Texas @ (#13) Kansas State -- I completely misread my Kansas State pick last weekend, as they pounded Oklahoma State by 48. But, I still like Texas to go on the road and come away with a win; the offense matches up well and Adrian Martinez is still not 100 percent.

The Pick: Texas, 34 Kansas State, 31

(#21) Wake Forest @ (#22) NC State -- Neither of these teams are operating at their peak levels due to injury, and Wake is coming off a baffling loss to Louisville. Even so, I'm taking the Demon Deacons to go into Raleigh and win the game.

The Pick: Wake Forest, 30 NC State, 24

Texas Tech @ (#7) TCU -- This is one of the most underrated games of the weekend in my mind, and somebody is going to get TCU at some point. I don't think it will be Texas Tech in Fort Worth, but it should be a fun one.

The Pick: TCU, 37 Texas Tech, 33

Upset: Tulsa over (#19) Tulane -- Tulane has been an awesome story and are on track for a New Year's Six bowl, but Tulsa is always a tough out, particularly on the road. The Green Wave simply aren't going to finish the year with one loss, and Tulsa pulls off the upset.

The Pick: Tulsa, 24 Tulane, 17

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Rutgers (+26.5) vs. Michigan -- Possible upset alert in Piscataway? Unlikely, although an underrated Rutgers defense could make this more competitive than you would assume.

The Pick: Michigan, 29 Rutgers, 10

Lock of the Week (has to be a favorite): Duke (-9.5) @ Boston College -- Locks continue to be my kryptonite this year, but betting against Boston College feels like the right move. Duke QB Riley Leonard is a dual-threat weapon, and the Blue Devil defensive front should pound one of the worst offensive lines in Power Five football.

The Pick: Duke, 28 Boston College, 14

Thursday, October 27, 2022

2022 College Football Picks: Week Nine

Miyan Williams, Ohio State
Current Picks Record: 44-28

Upset: 4-4

Superdogs: 4-4

Locks: 3-5


(#2) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#13) Penn State Nittany Lions

Line: Ohio State -15

O/U: 61.5

Ohio State has arguably been the nation's dominant team over the first eight weeks of the season, but now they get their first true test in the form of Penn State. The Nittany Lions' loss to Michigan derailed their CFB Playoff hopes, but they blew out Minnesota last weekend and could get right back into the mix by upsetting the Buckeyes, a team they've traditionally played tough under James Franklin.

Even though the Ohio State offense has struggled with injuries all season, they're still averaging nearly 50 points per game. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has been the catalyst and remains a Heisman frontrunner, but it's his supporting cast that has to be truly terrifying to opponents. This is the deepest collection of skill position talent in the country and I'm not sure it's particularly close. Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson are an overpowering 1-2 punch at tailback and both are fully healthy, then there's the receiver corps. Emeka Egbuka has stepped up to the leading receiver, but there's also Marvin Harrison Jr., Julian Fleming, and now Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba, many people's Biletnikoff Award favorite entering 2022, has been beat up all season but returned against Iowa last week and is expected to start this game. He may be on a plays limit, but the Buckeyes become even more potent with him on the field. Even guys like tight end Cade Stover can hurt you, taking advantage of the focus opponents pay to the Ohio State receivers. It's a mighty challenge even for elite defenses, and I'm still not entirely sure how good Penn State's defense is. They've been statistically strong for nearly the entire season, but allowed over 400 rushing yards to Michigan and don't quite have the athletes on the line of scrimmage they've had in the past. Corner Joey Porter Jr. is an All-American talent, but PSU doesn't have two or three of him, putting them at a distinct disadvantage on the perimeter.

It's the same old story for Penn State offensively: they will go as quarterback Sean Clifford goes. Overall, the veteran signal-caller has had a fine campaign, but it's anybody's guess what he's going to do in big games. He played one of the worst games of his career in the Michigan loss, but responded by throwing for four touchdowns against Minnesota. He has not played well against Ohio State in the past and faces down a much improved Buckeye defense, but could this be the game he puts it all together? Clifford has been helped by the fact the Nittany Lion ground game has found some playmaking, as true frosh Nick Singleton may be the best freshman in the nation. His explosiveness should add some intrigue to this game, but it's fair to wonder how many opportunities he's going to get. Ohio State has really improved up front and have been more physical than in year's past. They'll have an advantage along the line of scrimmage and will force Clifford to beat them with his arm. Clifford does have the luxury of Parker Washington, Mitchell Tinsley, and Brenton Strange as pass-catchers, but whether he's upright enough to get the ball to them will be the question.

It's never easy to go into Happy Valley and escape with a win, and Penn State has given Ohio State real difficulties in recent years. Even so, I just can't bring myself to take the Nittany Lions in the upset, particularly with the Buckeyes healthier than they've been in recent weeks. There's just too many weapons to contend with and the defense should stymie Clifford and the rest of this PSU offense. 

The Pick: Ohio State, 42 Penn State, 24


(#19) Kentucky Wildcats @ (#3) Tennessee Volunteers

Line: Tennessee -12.5

0/U: 63.5

Sitting at 7-0 and with their biggest game in years next week against Georgia, the excitement around Tennessee is palpable. However, they have to avoid a look-ahead letdown as they welcome 19th-ranked Kentucky to Lexington. The Wildcats don't have the flash or high-scoring offense of the Volunteers, but they're a tough opponent who can give any team fits.

There's nothing particularly exciting about what Kentucky does offensively, and they haven't reached the 30-point threshold in several weeks. With that being said, quarterback Will Levis is still a player with a lot of physical gifts who can make some truly impressive throws, and he has a proven tailback with him in Christopher Rodriguez Jr. After missing the first several games of the year due to suspension, Rodriguez has ran for over 100 yards in two of his last three starts, including 197 and two scores against Mississippi State. Kentucky also boasts a fun collection of receivers, even if this isn't an offense that necessarily airs the ball out, as Tayvion Robinson, Barion Brown, and Dane Key have all had superb seasons. However, the Wildcats' offensive line is the big question mark and they face a Tennessee defense that loves to blitz. I suspect Tennessee will be very aggressive in this one, and there's hope that defensive back Jaylen McCollough could return from his suspension this week, potentially providing another disruptor on the back-end.

There's not a more thrilling offense in college than in Knoxville, where the Volunteers are averaging over 50 points per game. Former Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker is my midseason Heisman winner after what he and star wide out Jalin Hyatt did to Alabama. We always knew Hooker had a great deep ball and could make things happen with his legs, but his decision-making has made this Tennessee team so scary. Despite 194 attempts through the air, he has just one interception, and looks in complete command of everything that's happening on offense. With Hyatt and Bru McCoy terrorizing defenses on the outside, things open up for Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright underneath, a fun 1-2 combo that remains an underrated element of this offense. There's also hope that another Volunteer could be returning offensively as well, in the form of Cedric Tillman. Tillman has missed nearly the entire season, but it sounds like he's progressing well and could return this weekend. If so, that gives Tennessee another weapon for Hooker, and a dangerous one at that. Prior to his injury, Tillman entered the fall as the team's top receiver, before Hyatt's breakout campaign. Does Kentucky have any shot at containing this offense? They'll try and manufacture some pressure and hope to create turnovers, but it's hard to see them having much success. It's not just the tempo of the Tennessee offense that makes them so overwhelming, they play so crisp and in control. It's a lot like what Baylor did in the peak Art Briles days, but even more effective because of Hooker's decision-making and rushing ability. 

The hope for Kentucky is that they can slow down the pace and muck up the game. It's certainly not a bad strategy and this has been a physical team throughout the Mark Stoops era. They are well-rested coming off a bye, but have to go to Neyland Stadium to attempt to spring an upset. I don't think Tennessee will be caught looking ahead, the energy in the program just feels different this year.

The Pick: Tennessee, 45 Kentucky, 30


Michigan State Spartans @ (#4) Michigan Wolverines

Line: Michigan -22

O/U: 54.5

Michigan-Michigan State was one of the games of the year in 2021 and we now get the 2022 edition, albeit with vastly different circumstances. Michigan is once again in the thick of the CFB Playoff race and looks arguably better than the 2021 team, while Michigan State sits 3-4 and is just battling to make a bowl. Yet, rivalry games can always get a bit weird, and the Spartans are hoping to to get their season back-on-track by beating Jim Harbaugh for the third straight season.

It's never easy to bench a quarterback who led you to a College Football Playoff appearance, but that's exactly what Jim Harbaugh did when he named J.J. McCarthy the starter over Cade McNamara. The decision has paid off, as McCarthy's big arm and dynamic rushing ability has opened up this offense in a variety of ways. However, this remains an offense that is led by its rushing attack, with my midseason Doak Walker Award winner, Blake Corum. Corum has been unstoppable this fall, totaling 901 yards and 13 touchdowns, and has hit the century mark in yardage in four straight games. He has to be thrilled to go up against a Michigan State defense that has struggled all season long. Neither the pass defense nor rush defense has been able to string together consecutive weeks of strong play and even with an All-American talent in Jacoby Windmon, the Spartan defensive front is at a severe mismatch. The Wolverines can also keep Corum fresh by leaning on Donovan Edwards, a nice change-of-pace weapon. Although, Edwards was involved in controversy earlier in the week, you would assume he will be playing this Saturday. Add in Ronnie Bell on the perimeter and I have no doubt Michigan will have success moving the football, particularly as they come off a bye.

If Michigan State is to spring an upset, they need more from this offense. The defensive struggles have been frustrating but somewhat expected, but the offensive woes are the real surprise. It's clear that Kenneth Walker III's worth to this offense went far beyond is stat-line, and the Spartans have struggled to find playmakers to replace him. QB Payton Thorne has been a major disappointment, due in large to turnover issues. It certainly looks like Thorne is feeling the pressure of the team's struggles and pressing to try and make things happen, which will not bode well against this opportunistic Wolverine defense. It would help if his receiver corps could develop more consistency, and there appears to be good news on that front. Keon Coleman popped off early before some struggles, but hauled in two touchdown passes against Wisconsin, while Jayden Reed is healthy and playing well. Those two should be able to provide pressure down-the-field, but the Spartans also need a rush offense to keep this Michigan defense honest. Jalen Berger had a huge two-game stretch to open 2022, but has been held in check since, and none of the other pieces on this roster have stepped up. It's a tough matchup against a Wolverine defense that remains one of the best in the nation, despite the turnover they faced this offseason. There is no Aidan Hutchinson on this year's defense, but the defensive front is still physical and well-coached, and the back-end has been led by converted receiver Mike Sanristil. It will take some creativity to move the ball against this unit, and that's not something Michigan State OC Jay Johnson is necessarily known for. 

Rivalry games can get wacky, but it remains difficult to find a reason to take Michigan State in an upset. They got back on track by beating Wisconsin, but this remains one of the nation's most disappointing teams and they have to go to Ann Arbor. Perhaps the offense can match Michigan blow-for-blow for a little, but in the end it will be the Wolverines on top.

The Pick: Michigan, 34 Michigan State, 17 (Michigan State cover)


Other Picks

(#9) Oklahoma State @ (#22) Kansas State -- Manhattan is a more difficult place to play than most give it credit for, but Adrian Martinez is beat up and Oklahoma State is the better team top-to-bottom.

The Pick: Oklahoma State, 28 Kansas State, 20

Florida @ (#1) Georgia -- The latest iteration of the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" could be interesting if the Gator defense can find a way to slow down Stetson Bennett and company, but Florida's maddeningly inconsistent offense makes it difficult to pick an upset.

The Pick: Georgia, 35 Florida, 22

(#17) Illinois @ Nebraska -- Illinois is already firmly in the driver's seat in the Big Ten West, but they could move to 4-1 in the league with a win. The 'Huskers have shown more fight under Mickey Joseph, but the defense simply doesn't have the pieces to slow down Chase Brown and company.

The Pick: Illinois, 27 Nebraska, 14

Upset: Texas A&M over (#15) Ole Miss -- Things are looking dire at A&M right now as they sit at 3-4, but this is still an incredibly talented team that always fights hard at Kyle Field. Plus, I'm still not convinced Ole Miss is a Top 15 nationally, especially with the defense struggling over the last several weeks.

The Pick: Texas A&M, 30 Ole Miss, 27

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Georgia Tech (+25) @ Florida State -- I'm a bit surprised at this line. Florida State has lost three straight, albeit all against ranked foes, but it's Georgia Tech that is the real story, as they've looked like a completely different team under interim head coach Brent Key. To be fair, the health of Jeff Sims is a major factor, as he remains day-to-day.

The Pick: Florida State, 33 Georgia Tech, 14

Lock of the Week (has to be a favorite): Wake Forest (-3) @ Louisville -- Vegas seems to like the chance of a potential upset, but the Demon Deacons and Sam Hartman should be able to shred a porous Louisville defense.

The Pick: Wake Forest, 38 Louisville, 27


Friday, October 21, 2022

2022 College Football Picks: Week Eight

Bo Nix, Oregon
Current Picks Record: 37-26

Upset: 4-3

Superdogs: 3-4

Lock: 2-5


(#9) UCLA Bruins @ (#10) Oregon Ducks

Line: Oregon -6.5

O/U: 71

With USC's loss to Utah last weekend, UCLA takes over as the lone undefeated in the Pac-12 and the league's best opportunity to make the College Football Playoff. They get their toughest game of the season in Week Eight, as they travel to Eugene to square off against an Oregon Ducks team that has been fantastic since the season-opening loss to Georgia.

The Bruins have been led by a balanced, productive offense that includes backfield mates Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet. "DTR" has silenced detractors with his play this fall, throwing for 1,510 yards and 15 touchdowns, while adding 231 and four more with his legs. In the past, his play in big games and decision-making were two notable concerns, but that hasn't been the case in 2022. He's taking care of the ball and playing the best in the biggest moments, including going for 299 and four touchdowns against Utah. His dual-threat ability softens up defenses, while Charbonnet pounds away with his bruising rushing ability. The former Michigan transfer has topped 100 yards in three consecutive weeks and is fresh off a dominant showing against the Utes. It will be interesting to see how the pair plays against an Oregon defense that has been terrific since the opening week. Oregon is more athletic than Utah on the back-end, but the key will be in the trenches. UCLA has been surprisingly physical en route to their 6-0 start, typically not a hallmark of Chip Kelly teams. They pounded Utah two weeks ago and while Oregon has plenty of size to counter, it will be the most difficult test they've seen since Georgia.

The Duck offense has been scorching hot the last five games, topping 40 in each contest. Quarterback Bo Nix is a magnet for criticism, but there shouldn't be any denying just how effective he has been in 2022. He's improved as a passer down-the-field, but his rushing ability has helped energize this Oregon offense. He's run all over Stanford and Arizona in consecutive weeks to the tune of five touchdowns, but faces a much more significant challenge in UCLA. Even so, the Bruins are going to have to find a way to not only contain Nix, but also stop the deep stable of backs the Ducks boast. Bucky Irving leads the team in attempts and is their home run threat, but he's far from the only option the Ducks can throw at you. Noah Whittington has offered a nice change-of-pace, as has Sean Dollars. There's also still hope that Byron Cardwell could return from injury this weekend, as he hasn't played since their blowout victory over Eastern Washington. On the perimeter, Troy Franklin and former Bruin Chase Cota offer enough playmaking to keep defenses honest, but the reality is that Oregon will go as the rushing attack goes. The Bruins have done an elite job containing the rush all season, but they haven't faced a running back with the athleticism and depth of the Ducks. Offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham is also very creative in getting his running backs out in space in unique ways. This offense uses shifts and different blocking schemes to consistently keep defenses off-balance, and they'll likely be throwing some new things at UCLA in this one.

UCLA has been a great story all season long, but I fear their perfect record won't last into next week. Oregon is the most talented team, top-to-bottom, in the Pac-12 and they've looked unstoppable over the last month. To be fair, the Bruins present a tougher test than who the Ducks have been playing, but Oregon also gets the advantage of getting them in Autzen Stadium. 

The Pick: Oregon, 31 UCLA, 27 (UCLA cover)


(#14) Syracuse Orange @ (#5) Clemson Tigers

Line: Clemson -13.5

O/U: 49.5

Despite building a strong resume over the season's first month-and-a-half, Clemson doesn't seem to be getting quite as much national respect as recent years. Even so, they have an opportunity to essentially lock up the ACC Atlantic in late October as they welcome in their greatest competition in the division, Syracuse.

D.J. Uiagalelei faced an entire offseason hearing whispers of a quarterback competition at Clemson, and has responded with a fantastic 2022. He's looked much more accurate and confident as a passer, but it's his rushing ability that has added an interesting element to this Tiger offense. At 6'4", 235 pounds, he's always been a load to bring down, but he seems to have more burst this year, forcing defenses to key in on the run more than a season ago. It also helps that his receiver corps has been healthier and more consistent this fall, elevating a passing attack that lagged all of 2021. Antonio Williams looks like a lock to be a Freshman All-American, while Beaux Collins and Joseph Ngata can challenge opposing defenses down-the-field. Add in two capable tight ends in Davis Allen and Jake Briningstool and Clemson has no shortage of weapons, which was simply not the case last fall. At running back, Will Shipley continues to be a focal point of the attack, and he got back into a rhythm against Florida State last weekend after two down games. All of these Clemson weapons are rolling right now, but they face arguably their toughest test of the regular season in the Orange defense. This is a well-coached group and one with a lot more athleticism on the back-end than most give them credit for. I wouldn't be surprised if Clemson relies heavily on their ground game once again, as they have for most of the season.

After two down seasons, Syracuse has been the ACC's biggest surprise this fall. Dino Babers' group is not necessarily flashy with anything they do, but they have a very capable offense and take care of the football. Quarterback Garrett Shrader is a bit different than past quarterbacks Babers has had here at Syracuse; he's not much of a gunslinger, but takes his chances when he needs to and does most of his damage with his legs. Shrader is hoping he can get back on track this week after throwing for two interceptions against a ball-hawking NC State defense. At running back, Sean Tucker is potentially the most underrated player in the entire country, a consistent contributor who has been the fuel of the offense the entire season. He's gone for 644 yards and six scores on the year, but has struggled against some of the better defenses on the schedule, most notably Purdue and Virginia. Going up against Clemson will be the ultimate test for the sophomore; the Tigers are allowing just 82.7 yards per game on the ground and are the healthiest they've been all season along the defensive front. Shrader and Tucker simply are not going to have the same opportunities they've had the entire season and the offensive line isn't going to be able to get the same push. That will force play-caller Robert Anae to open up the playbook a bit more in this one. He's known as one of the most innovative minds in college football and should be able to manufacture yards in creative ways, but I don't suspect a shootout in this game. With both defenses, I suspect it's going to more of a field position battle and defensive contest than a game that is lighting up the scoreboard.

Syracuse has played Clemson tough throughout the Babers era, including a shocking upset in 2017. But, this just doesn't have the feel of a game where the Orange are able to go into Death Valley and come away with a decisive victory. The defense will be able to keep things competitive, but I just don't see the offense doing enough to win the game, especially with the Tigers slowly getting healthier on the back-end. 

The Pick: Clemson, 35 Syracuse, 21


(#17) Kansas State Wildcats @ (#8) TCU Horned Frogs

Line: TCU -3.5

O/U: 53

Few teams have had a more difficult October stretch than TCU, who is now playing in their fourth game against a ranked foe. Granted, Oklahoma and Kansas were both a bit overrated, but the Horned Frogs still deserve plenty of credit for getting to Week Eight undefeated. Next up is No. 17 Kansas State, who is tied with the Horned Frogs atop the Big 12 standings at 3-0. 

TCU quarterback Max Duggan has taken advantage of an injury to starter Chandler Morris, putting together his best season since he arrived in Fort Worth. The veteran has always been a tough rusher, which hasn't changed this fall, but his passing ability seems to have been taken up a notch. He's thrown for 1,591 yards and 16 touchdowns up to this point, with just one interception and a 70% completion percentage. He's been arguably the best QB in the Big 12 up to this point and is commanding a fun, productive TCU offense. Joining Duggan is a deep and dynamic running back corps, spearheaded by Kendre Miller. Miller is averaging 6.4 yards per carry despite being the feature back in the offense, while Duggan and Emari Demercado provide complementary playmaking on the ground. Quentin Johnston has been arguably the nation's best receiver over the last several weeks, while versatile Taye Barber can hurt defenses in a wide variety of ways. Overall, it's a fun offense, one that plays a bit different than past Sonny Dykes-coaches teams, but just as effective. They should have an interesting battle against this Kansas State defense, a group that's short on star power but always plays hard. I don't envision quite as many big plays as we've seen in past TCU contests, but for this unit to be more methodical and conservative in how they approach the Wildcats. That doesn't mean they won't put up points, but the game-plan may look a bit different this weekend.

It looked like Kansas State's season might go sideways following an unimpressive 17-10 loss to Tulane in mid-September, but Chris Klieman's team has responded in a big way. They've won three straight and now travel to TCU with a chance at sole possession of first place in the conference. Oft-criticized signal-caller Adrian Martinez has been an excellent addition to the offense. He's still not much of a passer, but his speed and vision in the open-field has still helped open up the Wildcat playbook. He ran all over Oklahoma and Texas Tech in consecutive weeks, then proved he could do it against strong defenses too, by going for 77 yards against Iowa State. TCU has a capable front seven, but finding a way to contain Martinez while demonstrating some respect to the passing game is difficult, especially when you throw in Deuce Vaughn. The 5'6" junior was held in check by the Cyclones a week ago, but remains one of the most exciting players in college football. He truly is the type of player that can break open games anytime he touches the ball and TCU has undoubtedly been game-planning for him the entire week. 

This game feels like a complete coin-flip to me. I've picked TCU the last several weeks and it has paid off, but someone is going to get the Horned Frogs at some point in the near future. Kansas State is a super tough opponent at this point in the season, but they're an extremely one-dimensional team and they have to go into Amon G. Carter Stadium. Even so, I'm actually taking the road underdog to come away with a massive victory. Martinez and Vaughn should be able to carve up a TCU defense that has been mediocre all season, and the disciplined Wildcat defense should slow down Duggan and company enough to secure the win.

The Pick: Kansas State, 24 TCU, 20


Other Picks

Iowa @ (#2) Ohio State -- This has been an opponent that has traditionally played Ohio State tough, but it's hard to believe Iowa has much chance at springing an upset this fall. The defense might be able to contain Ohio State's weapons for a half, but the Buckeyes should run away with it.

The Pick: Ohio State, 38 Iowa, 13

(#24) Mississippi State @ (#6) Alabama -- A very tough opponent for Alabama following their first loss of the season, but Nick Saban should have this Tide team back with a vengeance. Bryce Young is also a week healthier and should be able to do plenty of damage against an inconsistent Bulldog defense.

The Pick: Alabama, 34 Mississippi State, 24

(#20) Texas @ (#11) Oklahoma State -- This game is overshadowed by TCU-Kansas State, but also has crucial implications in the Big 12. The Longhorns messed around last week with Iowa State, but they are still the far and away better team, even in Stillwater.

The Pick: Texas, 30 Oklahoma State, 20

Upset: SMU over (#21) Cincinnati -- Although they remain in the hunt for a New Year's Six Bowl at 5-1, Cincinnati has been very underwhelming at this point in the season. SMU may be maddeningly inconsistent, but I like their upset chances at home.

The Pick: SMU, 28 Cincinnati, 24

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): UNLV (+27.5) @ Notre Dame -- A clear mismatch in terms of brand reputation, but as far as on-field play goes, I'm a bit surprised at this spread. UNLV has been terrible the last two weeks, but they are hopeful to get QB Doug Brumfield back from a concussion, and Notre Dame's offense continues to be lethargic.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 27 UNLV, 10

Lock of the Week (has to be a favorite): Penn State (-5) vs. Minnesota -- I hate locking up anybody against my Gophers, but the reality is that Minnesota QB Athan Kaliakmanis could be making his first collegiate start in a Penn State "Whiteout" game. Even if Tanner Morgan is able to go, the Gopher offense has lacked the energy needed to go on the road and win in one of college football's harshest environments.

The Pick: Penn State, 31 Minnesota, 21