2022 College Football Picks: Week Fourteen (Championship Week)

Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State

Current Picks Record: 69-48

Upset: 5-8

Superdogs: 5-8

Pac-12 Championship: (#4) USC Trojans vs. (#11) Utah Utes

Line: USC -3

O/U: 67

For years, the Friday night Pac-12 Championship Game has been more of a Championship Week sideshow than a truly important game. That's not the case this week, as this matchup between fourth-ranked USC and 11th-ranked Utah has major CFB Playoff implications. One would assume USC is in with a victory, but they won't have anything easy against the Utes, who handed 'SC their lone defeat earlier in the year.

Last Saturday wasn't the most dominant performance of the season for Caleb Williams, but another stellar week likely looked him in as the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner. The true sophomore has demonstrated an explosive playmaking ability all season long and unlike last year, he's done it week-in, week-out. He's set to become the third USC quarterback since the turn of the millennium to take home the award, and he did it all in his first season in Southern California. Williams has had the luxury of a truly special supporting cast around him, with star receivers Jordan Addison, Mario Williams, and Tahj Washington terrorizing opposing defenses all season. The supporting cast did take a bit of a hit late in the year when they lost Travis Dye for the remainder of the season, but the duo of Austin Jones and Raleek Brown should be able to pick up the slack. The Trojans will remain a pass-first team following the injury to Dye, and they should have opportunities against the Utes. This remains a good Utah defense, but they've been more susceptible through the air than past editions. Williams went for 381 yards and five touchdowns last time they played, and that was in Salt Lake City. On a neutral field, USC should be able to move the ball comfortably, and Williams should be eager to show out in the biggest game of the year up to this point.

This year's Utah offense looks very similar to many of the previous Kyle Whittingham-coached offenses. They aren't the most explosive group in the league, but run a ball-control, methodical offense that does just enough to get this team over the top. Quarterback Cam Rising continues to be one of the most underrated in college football; he doesn't jump out at you with his arm strength or athleticism, but he's an accurate, intelligent, consistent signal-caller. He's also a much more effective runner than people give him credit for, which USC knows firsthand, as he went for three rushing scores against them in mid-October. Rising's backfield mate, Tavion Thomas, hasn't quite built on his huge 2021 the way many had hoped, but he remains a major factor. Thomas has dealt with injuries and hasn't been able to find his rhythm, but it wouldn't be shocking at all to see him return to form against a mediocre USC defense. Micah Bernard and Jaylon Glover offer more shiftiness and playmaking prowess to this ground game, although Glover is banged up entering this one. Unsurprisingly, the pass-catchers are led by a tight end, another staple of the Whittingham era. However, it's not the one many had expected to be starring for this team at the start of the season, Brant Kuithe, but Dalton Kincaid instead. Kincaid was a proven commodity entering the season, but he's turned it up a notch since a season-ending injury to Kuithe, and he should be a real matchup problem for the Trojans. In fact, Utah should be able to have success moving the ball in general against this USC defense. It's very much a typical Lincoln Riley team; they'll put plenty of points in a dazzling display, and let up nearly just as many the other way.

I give Utah a lot of credit for finding a route to the Pac-12 Championship Game. After an underwhelming showing in a loss to UCLA, the Utes were 4-2 and could have mailed in a disappointing season. Instead, they won five of their final six and now have a great opportunity to play spoiler. Considering this is the Pac-12, a league known for beating each other up, it would not be shocking if they manage to pull off the upset. But, on a neutral field, the Trojans are the better team, and they should be able to stick the landing, as long as the defense can be at least serviceable. 

The Pick: USC, 38 Utah, 30

SEC Championship Game: (#1) Georgia Bulldogs vs. (#14) LSU Tigers

Line: Georgia -17.5

O/U: 52

Georgia enters the weekend as the clear National Title favorite (particularly with Michigan's Blake Corum officially done for the year), but they have to avoid falling short on the goal-line against LSU. The Tigers managed to win the SEC West in Year One of the Brian Kelly era, but a humiliating loss to Texas A&M showed this team still has some issues to work out as they head to Atlanta.

The Georgia offense has been by no means perfect despite their 12-0 record, but they've done everything necessary to keep this team humming. Quarterback Stetson Bennett has followed up his incredible run last season with another impressive campaign, leading a pass offense that is in the Top 20 nationally. He's helped by a deep receiver corps that also includes the nation's most imposing 1-2 punch at tight end, Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington. Then there's the ground game, which hasn't been quite as dominant as past Bulldog groups, but remains productive. All of that operates behind a capable and experienced offensive line that should be well prepared for a ferocious LSU pass rush that includes B.J. Ojulari and Harold Perkins. What makes this Bulldog offense so difficult to stop is that depth; they don't lean on 1-2 pieces and struggle if those guys are having an off day. They have so many different weapons that can overwhelm a defense, and OC Todd Monken has been very adept at spreading the ball in creative ways. It's always a guessing game which Bulldog will have a coming out party offensively each week, which is a testament to this unit. My pick this week is wide out Kearis Jackson; he's had a quiet two years after being their most productive pass-catcher in 2020, but always seems to show out in big games near the end of the year.

I will be the first to admit, I did not see this 2022 season coming for Jayden Daniels. The veteran quarterback was cast off of Arizona State and entered an intense quarterback competition in Baton Rouge. It wasn't a shock that he came out as the Day One starter, but it has been surprising just how productive he's been. Daniels won't air the ball out too often, but he's a capable deep-ball thrower and can absolutely decimate defenses with his legs. He's second among all FBS quarterbacks with 824 rushing yards, and his ability to create will give this Georgia defense something to think about. The rest of the offense has been rather pedestrian statistically, although receivers Malik Nabers and Kayshon Boutte are not your typical perimeter duo. Boutte in particular is a supreme talent who just hasn't been used the right away this fall; could the SEC Championship Game be his return to the spotlight? With that being said, this is a brutal matchup for this LSU offense. Georgia is just so stacked on this side of the ball, and they're so unbelievably athletic. LSU has moved the ball against good defenses, but the 'Dawgs are a different breed, and I'm just not sure whether there is enough here to compete with Georgia going the other way.

The SEC Championship Game has been dominated by the favorites since its inception; prior to Georgia losing as a favorite last year to Alabama, the last underdog to win was Auburn in 2013 over Missouri, and they were just two points 'dogs. I don't see that trend reversing this year; the Bulldogs are simply too overwhelming, and this LSU team is the weakest West Division winner in years. 

The Pick: Georgia, 31 LSU, 17

Big 12 Championship Game: (#3) TCU Horned Frogs vs. (#10) Kansas State Wildcats

Line: TCU -2.5

O/U: 62

TCU's miraculous turnaround has been a constant talking point among national media this fall, but I still don't believe we are giving it the respect it deserves. The Horned Frogs were an absolute disaster a season ago and fired longtime head coach Gary Patterson. A year later, they're 12-0 and within reach of their first CFB Playoff appearance. The only thing standing in their way is Kansas State, a feisty underdog who would love nothing more than to ruin TCU's perfect season. 

Quarterback Max Duggan has a very real chance to end his TCU career as a Heisman finalist. Amazingly, the veteran signal-caller wasn't even the Day One starter in 2022, but has made the most of his opportunity following an injury to Chandler Morris. He's always been a powerful, hard-nosed runner, but it's Duggan's growth as a passer that has been a joy to watch. He has gone for over 3,000 yards and 29 touchdowns, and Sonny Dykes has adjusted his scheme to fit Duggan's strengths. Duggan is likely to finish the year as the Horned Frog with the most accolades, but tailback Kendre Miller has been arguably more important. Miller has 1,260 yards on the season and 16 touchdowns, while notching over six yards per carry. He was building a streak of five games with at least 100 yards before Baylor was able to keep him in check in TCU's thrilling, come-from-behind win. Add in Quentin Johnston, who missed against Iowa State but is expected back for this week, and do-it-all Taye Barber, and it's no shock why the Horned Frogs have been so successful moving the ball this fall. I like their chances to put up points in this game, even against a solid K-State defense. The Horned Frogs went for nearly 500 yards in these two team's first meeting, and should be ready to roll once again.

Chris Klieman's Kansas State program has been one of the most consistent in the Big 12 since he took over, but they have their first opportunity for a league title since he took over. This year's team has been built on a similar formula to previous editions. They have a strong defense, effective rushing attack, and they control the line of scrimmage. However, tailback Deuce Vaughn isn't your typical K-State back; he's a danger to score every time he touches the ball and OC Collin Klein has been very creative in getting him the ball. Vaughn has had to take on an extra load with the injury to starting quarterback Adrian Martinez, although the offense has really found a groove under backup Will Howard. Howard has looked in complete command in his last four starts, with an 11-1 TD-INT ratio, and the Wildcat offense hasn't looked back. That doesn't mean Howard is going to be chucking the ball all over the field, but Kansas State has more balance these last few weeks than they did to start the season. That's a good thing, because this TCU defense is very gettable. This isn't the same program that was churning out elite defenses at the peak of Patterson's leadership; they're prone to the big play and aren't as physical at the line of scrimmage.

I've said it time and time again this fall: I don't believe TCU is going to finish the regular season undefeated. Each time that I've picked against them, they've made me look like a fool, and have completed comeback after comeback. However, I remain under the belief that somebody is going to get them, and Kansas State matches up well against them. The Wildcats are playing hot right now and have the roster composition to muck this one up and control the tempo. I'm picking them to complete the "upset" and win the Big 12 for the first time since they earned a share of it back in 2012.

The Pick: Kansas State, 28 TCU, 24

Other Picks

ACC Championship: (#9) Clemson @ (#23) North Carolina -- A very tough matchup to pick at this moment. Drake Maye should give this Clemson defense fits, but the Tigers are the better team top to bottom, even if they've been underwhelming down the stretch.

The Pick: Clemson, 35 UNC, 32

American Athletic Championship: (#22) UCF @ (#18) Tulane -- I have picked against Tulane on several occasions this year, and been wrong each time. I hate to do it once again, but UCF's offense puts them over the top.

The Pick: UCF, 34 Tulane, 24

Big Ten Championship: Purdue @ (#2) Michigan -- Purdue emerged from the chaos of the Big Ten West to took the division, but I don't see an upset here. Corum may be out, but Michigan's suffocating defense is the real fuel of this team.

The Pick: Michigan, 29 Purdue, 14

C-USA Championship: North Texas @ UTSA -- Expect plenty of fireworks as these two offenses collide, but the scorching hot UTSA Roadrunners are the smarter pick.

The Pick: UTSA, 40 North Texas, 28

MAC Championship: Toledo @ Ohio -- This is essentially a coin flip in my eyes. Ohio has reeled off seven straight wins, but just lost star QB Kurtis Rourke for the rest of the year. Even so, they're the better team, and should come out on top.

The Pick: Ohio, 27 Toledo, 21

Mountain West Championship: Fresno State @ Boise State -- Kudos to both these teams for how they have managed to completely turnaround horrific starts to the season. Boise in particular has been a great story, winning seven of their last eight.

The Pick: Boise State, 37 Fresno State, 26

Sun Belt Championship: Coastal Carolina @ Troy -- Coastal was already without star QB Grayson McCall and now rumors are swirling head coach Jamey Chadwell could be on his way to Liberty. Even if that doesn't end up materializing, Troy is the better football team, with an elite defense.

The Pick: Troy, 27 Coastal Carolina, 18

2022 College Football Picks: Week Thirteen

C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

Current Picks Record: 65-43

Upset: 5-7

Superdogs: 5-7

(#3) Michigan Wolverines @ (#2) Ohio State Buckeyes

Line: Ohio State -7.5

O/U: 56

One of the greatest rivalries in sports once again takes center stage in the final week of the 2022 regular season. It may be the most anticipated Michigan-Ohio State game in nearly two decades, with both teams undefeated and battling for both the Big Ten and CFB Playoff. 

Michigan's decision to move on from Cade McNamara and roll with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback was all about opening up their offense and passing attack, but at the end of the day it's been their ground game that has ignited the offense all season. Tailback Blake Corum has led a rushing attack that is ranked fourth nationally, with over 243 yards per game. Corum is a legit Heisman contender, with 1,457 yards and 18 touchdowns to his credit, including eight straight games of at least 100 yards. However, Corum left the Illinois game with a knee injury, casting concern for the Wolverines entering this crucial matchup. He's listed as questionable, but even if he does play, it's fair to assume it may be in a limited capacity. Unfortunately, his capable backup, Donovan Edwards, missed the Illinois game and his status for Saturday is up in the air. That puts even more pressure on McCarthy ahead of what is likely the biggest game of his young career up to this point. He's had an impressive season and his ability to make plays with his legs has made this Michigan offense much more dangerous, but he is facing a fearsome Ohio State defense. The Buckeyes are long and athletic up front and have improved in a major way on the back-end. McCarthy will need his offensive line to be up to the task and also hope for ample help from a talented, but inconsistent, receiver corps.

Few teams in college football, if any, boast the immense of offensive talent as the Ohio State Buckeyes. Quarterback C.J. Stroud commands a group that includes TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams out of the backfield, plus Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Jaxon Smith-Njigba out wide. It's not much of a surprise that the Buckeyes are averaging 46.5 points per game, although it hasn't always been smooth sailing. Henderson and Smith-Njigba have battled through injury-plagued seasons, which hasn't allowed them to build on huge 2021 campaigns, and the ground game in general has lacked the usual punch it usually has. That's not a knock against either Henderson or Williams, but you do wonder if the lack of balance offensively is going to hurt the Buckeyes once they begin facing elite competition, such as Michigan. Stroud is also a bit of a conundrum; he's had another year of monster numbers, but he's struggled against some of the better defenses he's faced. And, he does face quite the defense in Michigan, who seems to have improved on this side of the ball despite heavy losses over the offseason. There's not the usually cache of big names like Aidan Hutchinson or Daxton Hill, but the Wolverines are particularly physical and instinctive this fall. This is not going to be a game where Ohio State runs away with things offensively; they are going to have to work for every inch and every yard, and I'm curious to see whether they're up for it.

Nobody can doubt how impressive of seasons these two have put together, but both are still hoping they can pad their resume a bit before the CFB Playoff. Michigan may have taken this game a season ago, but Ohio State feels like the safer pick, for several reasons. The most important surrounds Corum, as his injury throws a major wrench into this matchup. Additionally, the Buckeyes have the advantage of getting this game back in Columbus this year after being shredded in Ann Arbor last fall. That is enough to help put them over the edge in a closely contested matchup.

The Pick: Ohio State, 30 Michigan, 24 (Michigan cover)

(#15) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ (#6) USC Trojans

Line: USC -5

O/U: 64.5

After beating crosstown rival UCLA in a thriller a week ago, USC has serious CFB Playoff hopes in Year One of the Lincoln Riley. However, they still sit on the outside looking in, and will need to stick the landing to earn a spot in the four-team field. That includes not only taking the Pac-12, but taking care of business in their rivalry game with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, a team that's had a rocky year but is finishing strong.

Caleb Williams enters the final weekend of the year as the betting favorite to take home the 2022 Heisman Trophy. He has built on an impressive freshman season by taking it to a completely new level in Los Angeles, with 3,480 passing yards and 40 total touchdowns. His performance last Saturday against UCLA felt like a Heisman moment, as he threw all over a pretty good Bruins defense to the tune of 470 yards. Williams helms a potent Riley-led offense that includes loads of playmakers at both running back and receiver. Travis Dye, the team's leading rusher, may be done for the remainder of the year, but Austin Jones and Raleek Brown are more than capable of handling the load. Out wide, Jordan Addison remains one of the toughest man-to-man covers in college football, while Mario Williams, Tahj Washington, and Brenden Rice add plenty of pop. It's an offense that looks an awfully like the Riley-coached teams throughout his time at Oklahoma, unsurprisingly. They're exceptional at getting their most dangerous players out in space and finding mismatches to exploit. With that being said, Notre Dame's defense should be a good test, perhaps one of the most difficult USC has seen this fall. They're a stout defensive team up front, but the secondary is the real concern for Riley and company. Corner Benjamin Morrison has five interceptions on the season and would love an opportunity to add to that in the regular season finale. Alongside Morrison, there's plenty of talent and experience in this secondary, so don't expect them to allow Williams to sling it all over with ease.

Notre Dame's offense has been mostly pedestrian this fall, although they've turned things up a notch over the last month-and-half. Since a 16-14 stinker against Stanford, the Irish have hit or crossed the 35-point threshold in every single game, including going for 44 in a pummeling of Boston College last week. The ground game has really found its rhythm, with tailbacks Audric Estime and Logan Diggs running over everything in their paths. Both backs will be handle similar work loads week-in, week-out, but it either one can fuel this offense. The Irish do still need something from their passing game to spring an upset, and Drew Pyne has proven to be serviceable. In reality, Pyne isn't asked to do too much, outside of take care of the football and control the offense. In their last two wins over ranked foes, Clemson and Syracuse, Pyne threw the ball just 36 times, with 18 completions. Notre Dame will likely keep a similar approach with this one; pound the rock offensively and let their defense make plays. It could be an effective formula, as this is a bad matchup for this defense. Beyond sack machine Tuli Tuipulotu, USC's defense has been leaky all season long and has really struggled against the better teams they've faced. Notre Dame is going to move the ball against them, but can they keep up with this offense over four quarters?

This feels like a prime upset opportunity, with USC under immense pressure and ND merely playing spoiler. Notre Dame is flaming hot and I do think their clear advantage in the trenches gives reason to believe in them, I still lean 'SC at the end of the day. Maybe it's boring to go with the home favorite here, but we know what we're getting each week with USC, the same is not true of Notre Dame. One week, the Irish can look like the fearsome group that beat Clemson and North Carolina, the other it can performances like the Stanford loss.

The Pick: USC, 34 Notre Dame, 26

Auburn Tigers @ (#7) Alabama Crimson Tide

Line: Alabama -22

O/U: 50

The 87th edition of the Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama doesn't have the importance it usually does in the grand scheme of college football, but there's always a reason to tune in when these two get together. Despite Alabama's dominance the past decade-and-a-half, Auburn has regularly played the Tide tough, and would love nothing more than to completely kill any Alabama Playoff hopes, which are on life support already.

Injuries have kept Bryce Young from defending his Heisman Trophy quite the way he would have hoped, but the junior remains one of the sport's brightest stars. Even with poor health and a very abnormal supporting cast for Alabama, Young has notched 27 total touchdowns and nearly 3,000 yards of total offense. He remains the primary source of offense in Tuscaloosa and everything the Tide do on this side of the ball runs through him. In the backfield, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jase McClellan have proven to be great complementary pieces. Gibbs and McClellan are both dangerous weapons as receivers out of the backfield, and they should give this Auburn defense real trouble. Gibbs isn't 100 percent, missing out last week against Austin Peay, but he practiced earlier in the week, so it's likely we see him on the field in some capacity. At receiver, it's anybody's guess who is going to show up every week for the Tide. Ja'Corey Brooks has been their most consistent weapon on the perimeter, but this has been one of the nation's most disappointing position groups. Jermaine Burton seems to have found another gear in the season's second half, and there's potential elsewhere, but this receiver corps doesn't strike fear into defenses the way past Alabama groups have. Auburn has not been a very good defensive team this fall, but this isn't your prototypical Tide offense. They should be able to manufacture points, but I don't envision 'Bama lighting up the scoreboard, unless Gibbs and McClellan run wild.

It hasn't been a banner year on "The Plains" for Auburn, with Bryan Harsin's future as head coach swirling over their heads most of the season. Harsin was eventually dismissed, and Auburn has turned to former star back Cadillac Williams to run the program for the time being. The Tigers have played hard under Williams, but the offense remains a work in progress. Running back Tank Bigsby has been able to provide some fireworks during a frustrating season, and the Tigers will likely turn to him early and often. Instead of mailing it in during a lost season, Bigsby has turned it up a notch, with a pair of 100-yard performances heading into this one. Sophomore Jarquez Hunter and quarterback Robby Ashford will also see plenty of action on the ground. Williams has made it clear this will be a run-first team, and despite the advantage Alabama does enjoy in the trenches, the Tigers will still pound the ball. The Tide are much more susceptible through the air, as they've been smoked by any strong passing offense they've seen this fall, but it's hard to know is Auburn can take advantage. Ashford is currently completing under 50% of his passes, with a horrendous 6-7 TD-INT ratio to go along with it. Even against poor defenses, the Tigers have not been able to anything through the air, and it's hard to imagine that changing during the final week of the regular season.

You can always throw out the record books when these two get together, as the underdog always seems to play the favorite tough. The Tide are hefty favorites despite their struggles this fall, but I think Auburn can give them a game. However, I don't see them going into Bryant-Denny and beating this Alabama team, particularly with a healthy Bryce Young.

The Pick: Alabama, 38 Auburn, 20 (Auburn cover)

Other Picks

(#19) Tulane @ (#24) Cincinnati -- A game that could a long way in deciding who gets the Group of Five bid in the New Year's Six, Cincinnati feels like the smart bet. They're a better team top-to-bottom than Tulane, and get the Green Wave at home.

The Pick: Cincinnati, 24 Tulane, 20

(#9) Oregon @ (#21) Oregon State -- It's rare these two collide as ranked foes, but both Oregon schools have had great seasons. The Beavers feature a strong rushing attack and quality defense, but the Ducks have a clear edge with Bo Nix under center.

The Pick: Oregon, 31 Oregon State, 21

Georgia Tech @ (#1) Georgia -- Georgia Tech has been a pleasant surprise down the stretch since moving on from Geoff Collins, but it's hard to imagine any scenario in which they go into Sanford Stadium and come out victorious.

The Pick: Georgia, 40 Georgia Tech, 14

South Carolina @ (#8) Clemson -- Clemson seems to have righted the ship since their shocking blowout loss to Notre Dame. They should be able to get the job done at home against a feisty South Carolina team potentially due for a hangover after beating Tennessee.

The Pick: Clemson, 28 South Carolina, 20

Upset: Washington State over (#13) Washington -- Washington has owned this series as of late, with just two Washington State wins since 2009. Even with Washington flaming hot, I like the Cougars to pull an upset. The defense should be able to confuse Michael Penix and force a few turnovers, while Cam Ward leads a capable Cougar offense.

The Pick: Washington State, 34 Washington, 31

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): UMass (+21) vs. Army -- Either Auburn or Georgia Tech covering could work, but let's go out on a limb and take UMass + 21 as this week's superdog. The Minutemen are clearly the weaker team, but Army's triple-option attack makes it hard for them to cover these types of spreads.

The Pick: Army, 27 UMass, 10

2022 College Football Picks: Week Twelve

Zach Charbonnet, UCLA

Current Picks Record: 59-40

Upset: 4-7

Superdogs: 5-6

(#7) USC Trojans @ (#16) UCLA Bruins

Line: USC -1.5

O/U: 76

USC-UCLA is one of the West Coast's premier rivalries, but rarely does a matchup between these two have so much on the line. Not only does a potential trip to the Pac-12 Championship Game hang in the balance, USC still has a shot at the CFB Playoff, although they'll need to impress down the stretch. Going into Westwood and beating the 16th-ranked Bruins would certainly bolster their resume.

At the core of USC's 9-1 start to the season has been one of college football's most potent offenses. The Trojans are averaging over 42 points per game, and they do so with a balanced offensive attack. Quarterback Caleb Williams remains firmly in the Heisman hunt but still needs his so-called "Heisman Moment", which could come against a fierce Bruin defense. A host of former transfers flank Williams on all sides, including Oregon transplant Travis Dye at tailback and a fun receiver corps that includes Jordan Addison (Pittsburgh), Mario Williams (Oklahoma) and Tahj Washington (Memphis). Addison, who won the Biletnikoff last fall, remains one of the most difficult receivers to cover one-on-one in college football. He has a knack for tough contested catches and his downfield ability makes him a constant threat to score. It's a brutal matchup for just about any defense, but I have a feeling UCLA won't be overwhelmed. They've made real strides defensively since the addition of coordinator Bill McGovern; this is a much more physical and disciplined group than we saw in the early Chip Kelly years. They're particularly stout up front and should give Williams some troubles, but their success in stopping the passing could be the deciding factor.

It took awhile for Kelly to get UCLA rolling, but the offense has become a very productive unit under his tutelage. Long-time quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been maddening at times during his UCLA career, but he's had a fabulous 2022, with nearly 3,000 yards of total offense and 27 touchdowns. Most importantly, he's taken care of the ball in a way that he didn't early on his career, which has made the Bruins much more consistent on this side of the ball. Thompson-Robinson is always a threat to run, but it's Zach Charbonnet that energizes the ground game, as the former Michigan Wolverine averages over seven yards per carry. He's also an incredibly productive receiver out of the backfield and Kelly can get him the ball in creative ways. The receiver corps is short on big names, but former Duke transfer Jake Bobo has been their best, while Kaz Allen and Logan Loya offer plenty of support. I think the Bruins should be able to move the ball against this Trojan defense, especially if "DTR" can play smart football. USC has improved here, thanks to a front seven that includes sack machine Tuli Tuipulotu and a good 1-2 punch at linebacker in Eric Gentry and Shane Lee. However, they're still prone to getting outplayed along the line and the pass defense is iffy at best. This feels like a golden opportunity for Charbonnet and Thompson-Robinson.

This game lost a bit of intrigue last weekend when Arizona shocked UCLA, but the Bruins would love nothing than spoiling USC's Playoff hopes. And, I think they can do it. USC feels like a very shaky 9-1 team to me and while the offense can put up points, I have real concerns about this defense. Add to that the fact they can on the road, I like the Bruins in the upset.

The Pick: UCLA, 38 USC, 34

(#10) Utah Utes @ (#12) Oregon Ducks

Line: Oregon -2.5

O/U: 63

Oregon looked to be firmly in the CFB Playoff mix before a heartbreaking loss to Washington last weekend. They hope to avoid that loss turning into a losing streak, as they welcome 10th-ranked Utah to Eugene. The Utes have quietly won four in a row since their second loss of the season to UCLA, and a victory here could put them on an inside track towards a second straight Rose Bowl berth.

There's nothing particularly flashy about Utah on either side of the ball, especially offensively. They won't throw the ball all over the field or beat you on the outside with speed, but they're a methodical, consistent group that has had a strong 2022. At the helm has been quarterback Cam Rising, a junior who has 2,225 yards and 19 touchdowns through the air, while adding 335 and six with his legs. He has beat up in Utah's win last over Stanford last weekend, but is listed as probable on the injury report and is expected to play. He's joined in the backfield by a deep stable of backs, spearheaded by Tavion Thomas. Thomas hasn't been quite as effective this fall as he was a year ago, but remains one of the Pac-12's best. Along with him, Jaylon Glover, Micah Bernard, and do-it-all Ja'Quinden Jackson have unleashed a ferocious ground attack after starting off slow at the beginning of the season. Jackson in particular is a fascinating piece of the offense; a former quarterback who has essentially made the transition to tailback and has been extremely effective. Jackson did not play last week and is listed as questionable, but should be a factor if he sees the field. As for pass-catchers, tight end Dalton Kincaid has stepped up in the absence of Brant Kuithe and wide out Devaughn Vele is a real playmaker. Overall, it's a strong enough group that has put up good numbers most of the season, but I am curious how they match up against Oregon's defense. The Ducks boast a very good front seven and the secondary also appears to be coming into its own. They were shredded by Michael Penix and Washington a week ago, but should match up much better against the Utes this Saturday.

Bo Nix has been one of the best stories in college football this season and has added an interesting dynamic to this Duck offense, which couldn't throw the ball down-the-field through much of the Mario Cristobal era. Now, he needs to prove that he can battle through some adversity after the loss last weekend. Nix didn't play bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he wasn't able to quite match what the explosive Washington offense did to to Oregon's defense. The good news for him is that Utah's pass defense has been suspect for most of the season, even with a potential Jim Thorpe Award winner, Clark Phillips III, helping out. In fact, Utah's defense as a whole has been a bit of disappointment for a program that always seems to be very strong on that side of the ball, although they have been better in recent weeks. There's an opportunity for this Duck offense, which has a bunch to like beyond Nix. Mar'Keise "Bucky" Irving is one of my favorite players in college football, Noah Whittington offers plenty of bunch, and the receiver corps is inexperienced but fun to watch. The offensive line should also give them a good shot to move the ball against the Utes, but an important note: two key blockers, Ryan Walk and Alex Forsyth, could both miss the game. The pair are proven commodities up front who left last week's game and their status for Saturday is in doubt.

I picked this game wrong last year not once, but twice! Utah smacked around the Ducks in the regular season and then cruised by them in the Pac-12 Championship Game. However, I believe this Oregon team is significantly better than last year's group. They have a much more impressive offense that should be able to attack Utah vertically and the defense also matches up better. Add in the fact it's in Eugene, I'm rolling with the Ducks in this one.

The Pick: Oregon, 30 Utah, 24

(#1) Georgia Bulldogs @ Kentucky Wildcats

Line: Georgia -22

O/U: 48.5

It's the annual late November "bye week" for the SEC, with most of the league playing cupcakes in one of the final weeks of the regular season. One of the lone exceptions takes place in Lexington, where Kentucky is hoping to recover from a shocking loss to Vanderbilt by toppling the nation's No. 1 team.

The 10-0 Bulldogs continue to decimate everything standing in their path, fresh off a 45-19 dismantling of Mississippi State. Quarterback Stetson Bennett still has an outside shot at a Heisman Trophy run, as the savvy signal-caller continues to be the best QB on the field each and every week. He did throw two interceptions last week and faces a pretty good Kentucky defense, but has more than enough around him to put up points. The Georgia ground game has been a bit disappointing this year, without any back able to take charge. For that reason, the Bulldogs are airing it out more this year than any other season in the Kirby Smart era, with the nation's ninth-ranked pass offense. The tight end duo of Darnell Washington and Brock Bowers is an absolute nightmare to defend, and wide out Ladd McConkey has been the unsung hero. He doesn't blow you away with his athleticism, but the versatile receiver is a chain-mover, and can hurt you on screens, sweeps, or anything else this offense requires of him. Kentucky traditionally has had a good defense under Mark Stoops, one that is usually well-coached, but do they have the pieces in place to contain this offense? Considering Georgia has mauled everybody in their path, with the lone exception being a random stinker against Missouri, it's obviously fair to wonder.

Kentucky's offense has had their moments at times in 2022, but the same problems seem to persist: they can move the ball at a decent rate, but as far as points? The offense is averaging 23.3 PPG, which is good for 96th nationally. Simply put, the Wildcats are going to need to find some ways to get the ball in the end zone, and they happen to face a defense full of superstars. Quarterback Will Levis has been a constant source of doubt from many college football fans due to his high NFL Draft billing, but can he help spring the upset? There's no doubting Levis' arm, and he can also make plays with his legs, but turnovers have been a persistent problem. In 22 games in his Kentucky career, he has exactly 22 interceptions, and now faces a ball-hawking UGA secondary. The Wildcats will undoubtedly try and make things happen with the ground attack and Christopher Rodriguez Jr. has had a strong campaign. With that being said, Kentucky's offensive line has had a surprisingly poor season, and they face Jalen Carter and the Georgia defensive front. Is Rodriguez going to get any holes to run through?

Kroger Field has become a much more hostile environment under Stoops and Kentucky is a respectable program, but I don't see any reason to believe an upset could happen here. On the contrary, the game affords another opportunity for the Bulldogs to try out and tinker with some things before they finish the season with Georgia Tech and LSU in the SEC Championship Game.

The Pick: Georgia, 37 Kentucky, 14

Other Picks

Miami @ (#9) Clemson -- Miami seemed to rid themselves of some demons by beating Georgia Tech last week, but this remains an average-to-bad football team. It's hard to imagine them going into Death Valley and finding a way to win, although this Clemson team isn't exactly lighting the world on fire either.

The Pick: Clemson, 28 Miami, 18

Iowa @ Minnesota -- "The Floyd of Rosedale" is one of the best rivalry games in the sport, but Iowa has dominated this matchup over the last several decades. I'm thinking that could change this year; the Gophers outplayed the Hawkeyes in a close loss last fall and now get a worse Iowa team in Huntington Bank.

The Pick: Minnesota, 20 Iowa, 14

(#4) TCU @ Baylor -- I'm still under the belief somebody is going to get TCU this fall, but will it be Baylor? The Bears looked completely overmatched in a blowout loss to Kansas State last weekend and they don't have the run defense to slow down Kendre Miller and Frogs.

The Pick: TCU, 34 Baylor, 23

(#2) Ohio State @ Maryland -- After a 6-2 start, Maryland has lost two straight and now welcomes the Big Ten's Goliath to College Park. It would take a magical game from Taulia Tagovailoa to spring an upset, which feels highly unlikely against this vastly improved Buckeye defense.

The Pick: Ohio State, 42 Maryland, 20

Upset: Arkansas over (#14) Ole Miss -- Arkansas has faded quickly this year, but it sounds like K.J. Jefferson could be back in action this week. That's huge news for an offense that has been atrocious since his injury and I like their chances at home against an Ole Miss team potentially looking ahead to the Egg Bowl.

The Pick: Arkansas, 28 Ole Miss, 24

Superdogs (covers > 21 point spread): Boston College (+21) @ Notre Dame -- Emmett Morehead has breathed new life into a Boston College team going through a rough season and it's hard to know what to expect from Notre Dame week-in, week-out. I like BC's chances to cover this three-touchdown spread, even in South Bend.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 27 Boston College, 17

2022 College Football Picks: Week Eleven

Jase McClellan, Alabama

Current Picks Record: 55-35

Upset: 4-6

Superdogs: 5-5

(#9) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#11) Ole Miss Rebels

Line: Alabama -11.5

O/U: 64.5

Alabama heads into Week Eleven of the 2022 college football season in unfamiliar territory with two losses already on their record. Even so, they still have an outside shot at an SEC West Title, but can't afford another loss as they go on the road to face the 11th-ranked Ole Miss Rebels. The 8-1 Rebels are also firmly in the division title hunt, but considering LSU owns the tiebreaker over them, it's not unreasonable to think they may have to win out.

It's been all about the ground game for Ole Miss so far this fall, as tailback Quinshon Judkins has been one of the nation's biggest surprises. The true frosh has already surpassed the 1,000 yard mark and doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon, as he ran for 205 in their victory over Texas A&M to close out the month of October. Junior Zach Evans hasn't been 100 percent for a big chunk of the year but remains a dynamic piece alongside Jenkins, while quarterback Jaxson Dart has also proven he can make things happen with his legs. Dart, however, will need to prove his worth as a passer to help Ole Miss come out on top, especially as they go up against a questionable Crimson Tide secondary. Dart has been hesitant to take shots down the field and turnovers have been a problem, but he does seem to be getting more comfortable each and every week. He's no Hendon Hooker or Jayden Daniels, but has the physical tools to cause the Tide some headaches. Dart and company are also going to need help from their offensive line, which has been inconsistent. Alabama may not be as deep as they usually are up front, but Will Anderson, Dallas Turner, and the rest of this defensive front can still create plenty of chaos.

We've gotten used to explosive Alabama offenses under Nick Saban, but that simply is not the case with this 2022 team. Quarterback Bryce Young has tried to manufacture big plays, but the supporting cast simply has not shown up week-to-week. Even Young has fallen back to Earth a bit after his 2021 dominance, as he's dealt with injuries and shaky decision-making. Even so, the reigning Heisman winner remains one of the sport's signature stars and will be a constant pain for this Rebel defense. He's joined in the backfield by Jahmyr Gibbs, who's become a frontrunner for the Doak Walker Award with his recent play. Gibbs isn't quite the runner that past 'Bama tailbacks have been, but what he adds as a receiver has been crucial for the Tide this year, particularly when you consider how underwhelming this receiver corps has been. Beyond Ja'Corey Brooks, this has arguably been the worst receiver corps of the Saban era, with a complete lack of playmaking. Georgia transfer Jermaine Burton has been quiet, the trio of Traeshon Holden, Isaiah Bond, and Kobe Prentice haven't been consistent, and Tyler Harrell has been hurt. Young is still going to create, but you can tell he's trying to force plays this year, and LSU got to him last week. The Rebels may not boast the defensive talent of the Tigers, but this is a much improved group and they should be up for the challenge.

It's fair to wonder if this is the worst Saban-coached Alabama team since 2008. The defense is still extraordinarily talented but has notable holes and the offense is very un-Alabamalike. All the signs point to a strong Ole Miss team coming out on top at home, but logic says differently. Saban will have his boys ready and extra motivated, and I'm not entirely sure Ole Miss is as good as their record indicates. I'll take the Tide in this one; I can't imagine a Saban team heading into the home stretch of the season with three losses.

The Pick: Alabama, 34 Ole Miss, 21

(#25) Washington Huskies @ (#6) Oregon Ducks

Line: Oregon -13.5

O/U: 73

Oregon-Washington doesn't get as much attention from the national media as it should, but it's one of the sport's most heated rivalries. It should be awfully rowdy once again in 2022 and has plenty of meaning, with Oregon on an inside track towards their first CFB Playoff appearance since 2014.

We tend to expect the unexpected in college football every year, but who could have honestly predicted this season from Bo Nix? The Auburn transfer has gone from a "meme" among the college football community to one of the best quarterbacks in the country and a legit Heisman contender. He's totaled nearly 3,000 yards of total offense and has 35 total touchdowns to his credit, and it hasn't been beating up on weak opponents, either. He went for five passing touchdowns against UCLA and notched a total of six against a routinely strong Cal defense a week later. Nix has been at the forefront of a super fun offense that also includes Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington out of the backfield, an underrated tailback combo. Both former transfers, the pair is averaging over six yards per carry and puts constant stress on opponents. There also remains hope that sophomore Byron Cardwell, who began the year as the feature guy, could also return for this one, although that seems unlikely. On the outside, Troy Franklin remains the name to watch, although he has been in held the last few weeks. Chase Cota, a nice complement to Franklin, missed the Colorado game and is questionable to return here, as well. That could be an issue for Oregon, but they remain a tough matchup for this Washington defense. It's hard to get a read on this side of the ball for the Huskies; they have plenty of talent, namely along the defensive front, but it has not always shown up on the field. Are they the ones that are going to stop Nix, which no team save Georgia has been able to do?

Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer is considered an offensive savant, and it's really shown with what he's been able to do with the Husky offense in one offseason. A group that was among the worst in Power Five football a year ago, Washington is now averaging nearly 39 points per game and has the country's top passing offense. Leading that passing offense is Indiana transfer Michael Penix, who is the very definition of a gunslinger. He's got a huge arm and has never been afraid to take his shots, which has occasionally caused issues, although his five interceptions on 391 attempts are not a bad number. Penix is helped out by a fun receiver corps that includes Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja'Lynn Polk. Odunze is the top pass-catcher, but McMillan and Polk can also challenge defenses vertically. One-time Michigan transfer Giles Jackson is also a fun watch, as the 5'9" speedster can do a lot of different things. The ground attack is nothing to ride home about, but Wayne Taulapapa helps keep some semblance of balance in this offense. How will the Ducks fare against Penix and the Huskies? This has been a very strong secondary over the past nine-plus weeks, but this is a unique challenge. However, I like their chances of forcing some turnovers and creating extra possessions for Nix, which could spell real doom for Washington.

There should be plenty of offensive fireworks when these two collide, so it's no surprise that the over/under is set at 73. Washington will be a tough foe, but Oregon has been on an absolute tear since that season-opening loss to Georgia and they get the Huskies in the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium. If the defense can do just enough to slow down Penix and company, the Ducks should roll.

The Pick: Oregon, 38 Washington, 28 (Washington cover)

(#22) UCF Knights @ (#17) Tulane Green Wave

Line: Tulane -1.5

O/U: 54.5

One storyline not receiving much attention this college football season surrounds whichever team is going to represent the Group of Five in the New Year's Six. There's no obvious candidate this fall but UCF and Tulane are considered two of the top contenders, as are Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina. We will receive some clarity on this after this weekend, with UCF traveling to New Orleans to meet up with Willie Fritz and the Green Wave.

Tulane has been a great story in 2022, off to an 8-1 start and ranked for the first time in over two decades. They've done so behind a balanced offense and opportunistic defense that has come up big in some of their toughest matchups. Leading the offense is junior quarterback Michael Pratt, a solid but rather boring signal-caller. Pratt isn't going to be chucking the ball all over the field, but the Green Wave are most effective when he's taking care of the ball and making tight, accurate throws. It's his backfield mate, tailback Tyjae Spears, that is the main source of explosive plays for Tulane. After a slow start to the campaign, Spears has been unstoppable over the past month, including three straight games of at least 100 yards. Alongside him are two change-of-pace options, Iverson Celestine and Shaadie Clayton-Johnson, who won't create as many big plays but provide a three-headed approach on the ground. At receiver, the trio of Deuce Watts, Shae Wyatt, and Jha'Quan Jackson should put plenty of pressure on the Knights defense. Wyatt in particular can challenge defenses vertically in a way nobody else on this roster can, as he's averaging over 19 yards per reception. Overall, it's not an offense that is going to be putting up 40 points on a regular basis, but Fritz has an effective group here and UCF has questions defensively. Although they don't give up a lot of points, they do give up a lot of yardage, and it's fair to wonder if this bend-not-break defense will hold against a Top 20 team.

The Knights are a bit more creative with what they do offensively than the Green Wave, thanks to Gus Malzahn. There's a lot of versatility to this offense and at the helm, John Rhys Plumlee is one of the most entertaining players to watch in college football. With that being said, Plumlee isn't 100 percent; he missed the game against Memphis last Saturday and his status for Saturday is still in doubt. If he isn't able to go, UCF turns to Mikey Keene, a sophomore who went for 219 yards and three touchdowns a week ago. Keene is a very good backup quarterback, but he's not as dangerous with his legs as Plumlee, which limits this offense quite a bit. Fortunately, there's plenty of help from this supporting cast, including dynamic receiver Ryan O'Keefe. O'Keefe is one of my personal favorites in the college football world; he's a threat to score every time he touches the ball and watch out for him on sweeps or other gadget plays, as Malzahn loves to get him involved. Former SEC transfers Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson have also been helpful weapons in the passing game, while Isaiah Bowser and R.J. Harvey fuel the rushing attack. However, the key for UCF may be on the O-Line, where they have to handle a physical Tulane front seven. This has been a decent line so far this season, but the Green Wave do present a challenge. They also feature a ball-hawking secondary that's short on star players, but has no shortage of game-changers.

The line indicates Vegas feels like this is about a toss-up and I couldn't agree more. Tulane is a more balanced, well-rounded team but I still believe they're in store for one more loss this regular season. UCF on the other hand can score in bunches, but they have to go on the road, possibly without Plumlee. With that in mind, I'll take the Green Wave in a close one, making them the Group of Five favorite and likely elevating them into the Top 15 for the first time since 1998.

The Pick: Tulane, 28 UCF, 24

Other Picks

(#4) TCU @ (#18) Texas -- The Longhorns remain frightfully streaky, but they are likely the Big 12's best when they're playing well. This is the game to prove it, and I think they have a good shot to end TCU's perfect season in Austin.

The Pick: Texas, 38 TCU, 34

Purdue @ (#21) Illinois -- A game that will likely decide the Big Ten West, Purdue-Illinois features two opposing styles. The Illini looked out-of-sync last week, but I trust their defense and star back Chase Brown to power past the Boilermakers.

The Pick: Illinois, 27 Purdue, 20

(#1) Georgia @ Mississippi State -- Mississippi State held on to beat Auburn and reach bowl eligibility last weekend, but I don't envision an upset here. Georgia's secondary is good enough to slow down Will Rogers and the Bulldog passing attack.

The Pick: Georgia, 35 Mississippi State, 17

(#7) LSU @ Arkansas -- Certainly a game with great "hangover" potential after LSU's massive win over Alabama, but Brian Kelly should have his team ready to go and Arkansas has been playing very poor football over the past month.

The Pick: LSU, 28 Arkansas, 23

Upset: Wake Forest over (#15) UNC -- Wake Forest has made me look like a fool the last two weeks, so why am I triple-dipping? UNC has won close game after close game, but their luck is going to catch up to them at some point, and I still have serious questions about this defense.

The Pick: Wake Forest, 49 UNC, 42

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Indiana (+41) @ Ohio State -- Ohio State should head into the Michigan game undefeated, but they're still figuring things out offensively, especially on the ground. Indiana has traditionally played them tough and should be able to cover this huge spread.

The Pick: Ohio State, 42 Indiana, 14

2022 College Football Picks: Week Ten

Brock Bowers, Georgia

Current Picks Record: 50-31

Upset: 4-5

Superdog: 5-4

Lock: 3-6

(#1) Tennessee Volunteers @ (#3) Georgia Bulldogs

Line: Georgia -8

O/U: 66.5

There may not be a more important college football game this fall than the top-ranked Tennessee Volunteers squaring off against third-ranked Georgia. The Vols have been the story of the 2022 campaign, with five victories over ranked teams and their first No. 1 ranking since 1998. In order to continue their run to a National Title, they have to get by the reigning National Champion Georgia Bulldogs, who haven't been quite as dominant this year as the 2021 team, but remain one of the top teams in the nation.

Through the first nine weeks of the season, Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker looks like the Heisman favorite. He's put up eye-popping numbers all season long and seems to play his best in the biggest moments, evidenced by his five touchdown showing against Alabama. He leads college football's most dynamic offense, a group that uses the entire field and plays at a truly relentless pace. On the outside, Jalin Hyatt has emerged as the premier weapon, but Tennessee has plenty of others that can overwhelm opposing defenses. Cedric Tillman is finally healthy after missing most of the season, while Bru McCoy has finally shown the playmaking prowess that made him such a coveted recruit when he left high school. It's a fun group of receivers, a group that fits this offense perfectly with their ability to create after the catch. Add in the underrated running back duo of Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright, and it's no surprise Tennessee has overwhelmed every defense that has stood in their way so far this season. Will that remain the case against this Bulldog defense? There's never been a shortage of talent on this side of the ball, but UGA received tough news this week: star linebacker Nolan Smith will miss the rest of the year with a torn pectoral. The reality is that this defense isn't as talented top-to-bottom as last year's group, although you could argue the secondary is nearly at 2022 levels. It's still probably the best unit Tennessee has faced this season, but it still feels like the Vols are going to put up points, and it's on Georgia's offense to match.

It some time for Georgia to figure out their offense in the weeks following their domination of Oregon, but they appear to have found their rhythm. They went for 42 against Auburn, 55 against Vanderbilt, and then 42 against Florida over the past month and seem to be playing with more confidence. Sure, those three aren't exactly a murderer's row of elite defenses, but considering some of the issues UGA was struggling through in the first month of the season. Stetson Bennett remains the man at the controls and while turnovers have still been an occasional problem, there's no denying he's elevated his play from last season. It helps that his supporting cast has stayed healthier this year, and he has one of the sport's most dangerous weapons in tight end Brock Bowers. The sophomore is fresh off a five-catch, 154-yard performance against Florida and the Volunteers don't have a single player on their roster that can match up with him. Along with Bowers, the Bulldogs can also feature Ladd McConkey, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, and 6'7" behemoth Darnell Washington. It's a passing attack that is currently eighth in the country, but you better believe Kirby Smart and this coaching staff are hoping to find more balance. This has long been a program that has leaned on the ground game, but the trio of Daijun Edwards, Kenny McIntosh, and Kendall Milton haven't cut it. Fortunately, they should have opportunities against an inconsistent Tennessee defense. In fact, Georgia's offense as a whole matches up favorably against Tennessee's defense, which has made strides this fall, but can still be a weakness. To be fair, no defense in college football is on the field more, but they are still prone to the big play, and this is a tough matchup for the secondary.

Tennessee conquered some demons and proved themselves as a program by beating Alabama earlier in the season. But, what are the chances they're able to defeat both Alabama and Georgia in the same season, especially going to Athens? I have little doubt the Volunteers will put plenty of points, but the Bulldogs feel like the more balanced team overall and getting Tennessee, "Between the Hedges" makes them the safer selection.

The Pick: Georgia, 38 Tennessee, 34 (Tennessee cover)

(#6) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#10) LSU Tigers

Line: Alabama -13.5

O/U: 56.5

Georgia-Tennessee is undoubtedly the game of the weekend in the SEC, but Alabama-LSU still has major implications in the SEC West. Alabama recovered from the Tennessee loss by manhandling Mississippi State and is coming off a bye, while LSU has been a pleasant surprise in Brian Kelly's first season, winning six of their last seven games to put themselves in division title contention.

The bye week was huge for the Crimson Tide, as it gives Bryce Young another week to recover the shoulder that he originally hurt in the win over Arkansas. Despite not operating at 100 percent, Young remains one of the sport's premier superstars, and he has once again carried the Tide offense in 2022. He's gone for over 700 yards and four touchdowns over his last two starts, but has been a bit more hesitant to make plays as a runner, stripping away an element of the Tide offense. Fortunately, they happen to have one of the nation's most exciting running backs next to him Jahmyr Gibbs, who can terrorize defenses as a runner and receiver. After a slow start to the season, Gibbs has arguably been the best back in the country the last several weeks and stopping him will be a primary focus of the LSU defense. Those two will carry the Alabama offense once again, but will somebody in the receiver corps finally step up? It's been an extremely disappointing year for a program that has produced Biletnikoff Award winner after Biletnikoff Award winner. Ja'Corey Brooks has been their top guy, but this offense would be significantly more intimidating if pieces like Jermaine Burton and Traeshon Holden showed up regularly. Alabama's offensive line has also been a bit of a conundrum; there's no denying the talent here, but consistency has also been a problem. How do they handle a powerful LSU pass rush, one that includes ferocious end/linebacker B.J. Ojulari?

After an underwhelming first start at LSU in the Florida State, quarterback Jayden Daniels has been one of the best in the SEC this fall. He's completing 70% of his passes, has thrown just one interception on 236 attempts, and also leads the team with 524 rushing yards. He won't take too many shots down the field, but he's demonstrated tremendous accuracy and his ability to create with his legs should be a real concern for the Tide. Nick Saban-coached teams have occasionally struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, and Daniels can really bust open games; he has six rushing touchdowns in his last two games. Daniels will need help around him, which has been an occasional problem for the Tigers this year. Malik Nabers is another player who had a rough opener and has put together an impressive campaign as the team's top receiver, and Kayshon Boutte is one of the nation's best when he's playing focused. However, the lack of a rushing attack beyond Daniels has really limited what this offense can be. Junior Josh Williams has carried the load the last several weeks and is their top non-Daniels rusher, but the healthy return of Armoni Goodwin likely leaves him as the feature way. Either way, it's a fairly mediocre group of tailbacks going up against a strong Alabama defensive front; plenty is going to be on Daniels' shoulders in this one.

This is going to be quite a test for an Alabama team that has no margin for error if they want to return to the CFB Playoff. Not only has LSU been flaming hot, they happen to get the Crimson Tide in Baton Rouge. With that being said, Jayden Daniels is no Bryce Young, even if he's been terrific, and I trust Saban to have this team ready coming off a bye. 

The Pick: Alabama, 35 LSU, 21

(#4) Clemson Tigers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Line: Clemson -3.5

O/U: 44

It hasn't always been pretty, but Clemson remains undefeated and on track to return to the College Football Playoff after a one-year hiatus. They have a favorable schedule the rest of the way, but a team that could stand in their way is Notre Dame, as they must travel to South Bend. It's been a rocky Year One for Marcus Freeman and the Irish, but they've been a tough out as of late and Notre Dame Stadium is always a raucous atmosphere.

Although Clemson benched quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei in favor of freshman Cade Klubnik in their win over Syracuse, the expectation is that "D.J. U" will continue as the starter. Uiagalelei can still be inconsistent, but he's shown real growth in 2022 and has one of the ACC's best. His arm strength has never been a question, but he seems to be playing with more confidence and his ability to create as a runner has helped open up this Tiger offense. He's formed quite the duo with tailback Will Shipley out of the Clemson backfield, and the O-Line has also looked revitalized after a down 2021 by typical Clemson standards. They should once again fuel the Tiger offense, although they do face a strong physical front in Notre Dame. The Irish produce front-seven talent at an impressive clip and the rush defense numbers have also been solid. Clemson will take their shots down-the-field against a good, but not great, Notre Dame secondary, but the aerial attack struggled against Syracuse. Antonio Williams and Joseph Ngata provide a formidable 1-2 punch at receiver, but the Tigers are even scarier when Beaux Collins and their tight ends are adding playmaking ability. Collins has been nonexistent in recent weeks and it's anybody's guess whether Jake Briningstool and Davis Allen will be factors week-to-week, despite their immense talent. At the end of the day, the offensive success does probably fall on Uiagalelei's shoulders, as simplistic as that may sound. Does last week's benching impact his confidence? Nobody has ever doubted his talent, but the mental game has seemed like a challenge for the signal-caller and games add an extra element.

Notre Dame's defense has carried them for most of the year, but the offense will need to have a fine performance for them to pull off an upset. It's been a very disappointing year on this side of the ball for play-caller Tommy Rees and the entire unit, which hasn't been helped by the fact starting QB Tyler Buchner is out for the year. Backup Drew Pyne is okay and can make things happen with his legs, but the passing game has really suffered and they've been rather one-dimensional. Tight end Michael Mayer provides plenty of playmaking as one of the nation's best, but he can only do so much. Others are going to have to show up, which has been a regular problem. The ground game has been decent, with Audric Estime being a pleasant surprise. He doesn't have the game-breaking ability of past Irish tailbacks, but Estime is their most productive offensive weapon not named Mayer. Unfortunately, he goes up against one of the nation's best defensive fronts, a deep, ferocious group stocked full of future NFL guys. Pyne is going to make things happen with his arm, but who else can open things up vertically beyond Mayer? Lorenzo Styles is their second leading receiver, but he's been held in check the last several weeks and Clemson can key in on him. Behind him, there's a whole lot of experience and this Tiger secondary is healthier than they were earlier in the season, when they were getting shredded by opposing offenses.

The over/under for this game in unsurprisingly set at a low 44, which indicates both team's strengths defensively and inconsistencies offensively. With that being said, I trust this Tiger offense significantly more, particularly if D.J. Uiagalelei is able to come back firing. There's simply more weapons on this side of the ball, and I don't think they'll be intimidated playing in South Bend. Plus, Clemson is fresher, taking last week off, while the Irish had a hard-fought win over 'Cuse.

The Pick: Clemson, 27 Notre Dame, 14

Other Picks

(#24) Texas @ (#13) Kansas State -- I completely misread my Kansas State pick last weekend, as they pounded Oklahoma State by 48. But, I still like Texas to go on the road and come away with a win; the offense matches up well and Adrian Martinez is still not 100 percent.

The Pick: Texas, 34 Kansas State, 31

(#21) Wake Forest @ (#22) NC State -- Neither of these teams are operating at their peak levels due to injury, and Wake is coming off a baffling loss to Louisville. Even so, I'm taking the Demon Deacons to go into Raleigh and win the game.

The Pick: Wake Forest, 30 NC State, 24

Texas Tech @ (#7) TCU -- This is one of the most underrated games of the weekend in my mind, and somebody is going to get TCU at some point. I don't think it will be Texas Tech in Fort Worth, but it should be a fun one.

The Pick: TCU, 37 Texas Tech, 33

Upset: Tulsa over (#19) Tulane -- Tulane has been an awesome story and are on track for a New Year's Six bowl, but Tulsa is always a tough out, particularly on the road. The Green Wave simply aren't going to finish the year with one loss, and Tulsa pulls off the upset.

The Pick: Tulsa, 24 Tulane, 17

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Rutgers (+26.5) vs. Michigan -- Possible upset alert in Piscataway? Unlikely, although an underrated Rutgers defense could make this more competitive than you would assume.

The Pick: Michigan, 29 Rutgers, 10

Lock of the Week (has to be a favorite): Duke (-9.5) @ Boston College -- Locks continue to be my kryptonite this year, but betting against Boston College feels like the right move. Duke QB Riley Leonard is a dual-threat weapon, and the Blue Devil defensive front should pound one of the worst offensive lines in Power Five football.

The Pick: Duke, 28 Boston College, 14

2022 College Football Picks: Week Nine

Miyan Williams, Ohio State

Current Picks Record: 44-28

Upset: 4-4

Superdogs: 4-4

Locks: 3-5

(#2) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#13) Penn State Nittany Lions

Line: Ohio State -15

O/U: 61.5

Ohio State has arguably been the nation's dominant team over the first eight weeks of the season, but now they get their first true test in the form of Penn State. The Nittany Lions' loss to Michigan derailed their CFB Playoff hopes, but they blew out Minnesota last weekend and could get right back into the mix by upsetting the Buckeyes, a team they've traditionally played tough under James Franklin.

Even though the Ohio State offense has struggled with injuries all season, they're still averaging nearly 50 points per game. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has been the catalyst and remains a Heisman frontrunner, but it's his supporting cast that has to be truly terrifying to opponents. This is the deepest collection of skill position talent in the country and I'm not sure it's particularly close. Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson are an overpowering 1-2 punch at tailback and both are fully healthy, then there's the receiver corps. Emeka Egbuka has stepped up to the leading receiver, but there's also Marvin Harrison Jr., Julian Fleming, and now Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba, many people's Biletnikoff Award favorite entering 2022, has been beat up all season but returned against Iowa last week and is expected to start this game. He may be on a plays limit, but the Buckeyes become even more potent with him on the field. Even guys like tight end Cade Stover can hurt you, taking advantage of the focus opponents pay to the Ohio State receivers. It's a mighty challenge even for elite defenses, and I'm still not entirely sure how good Penn State's defense is. They've been statistically strong for nearly the entire season, but allowed over 400 rushing yards to Michigan and don't quite have the athletes on the line of scrimmage they've had in the past. Corner Joey Porter Jr. is an All-American talent, but PSU doesn't have two or three of him, putting them at a distinct disadvantage on the perimeter.

It's the same old story for Penn State offensively: they will go as quarterback Sean Clifford goes. Overall, the veteran signal-caller has had a fine campaign, but it's anybody's guess what he's going to do in big games. He played one of the worst games of his career in the Michigan loss, but responded by throwing for four touchdowns against Minnesota. He has not played well against Ohio State in the past and faces down a much improved Buckeye defense, but could this be the game he puts it all together? Clifford has been helped by the fact the Nittany Lion ground game has found some playmaking, as true frosh Nick Singleton may be the best freshman in the nation. His explosiveness should add some intrigue to this game, but it's fair to wonder how many opportunities he's going to get. Ohio State has really improved up front and have been more physical than in year's past. They'll have an advantage along the line of scrimmage and will force Clifford to beat them with his arm. Clifford does have the luxury of Parker Washington, Mitchell Tinsley, and Brenton Strange as pass-catchers, but whether he's upright enough to get the ball to them will be the question.

It's never easy to go into Happy Valley and escape with a win, and Penn State has given Ohio State real difficulties in recent years. Even so, I just can't bring myself to take the Nittany Lions in the upset, particularly with the Buckeyes healthier than they've been in recent weeks. There's just too many weapons to contend with and the defense should stymie Clifford and the rest of this PSU offense. 

The Pick: Ohio State, 42 Penn State, 24

(#19) Kentucky Wildcats @ (#3) Tennessee Volunteers

Line: Tennessee -12.5

0/U: 63.5

Sitting at 7-0 and with their biggest game in years next week against Georgia, the excitement around Tennessee is palpable. However, they have to avoid a look-ahead letdown as they welcome 19th-ranked Kentucky to Lexington. The Wildcats don't have the flash or high-scoring offense of the Volunteers, but they're a tough opponent who can give any team fits.

There's nothing particularly exciting about what Kentucky does offensively, and they haven't reached the 30-point threshold in several weeks. With that being said, quarterback Will Levis is still a player with a lot of physical gifts who can make some truly impressive throws, and he has a proven tailback with him in Christopher Rodriguez Jr. After missing the first several games of the year due to suspension, Rodriguez has ran for over 100 yards in two of his last three starts, including 197 and two scores against Mississippi State. Kentucky also boasts a fun collection of receivers, even if this isn't an offense that necessarily airs the ball out, as Tayvion Robinson, Barion Brown, and Dane Key have all had superb seasons. However, the Wildcats' offensive line is the big question mark and they face a Tennessee defense that loves to blitz. I suspect Tennessee will be very aggressive in this one, and there's hope that defensive back Jaylen McCollough could return from his suspension this week, potentially providing another disruptor on the back-end.

There's not a more thrilling offense in college than in Knoxville, where the Volunteers are averaging over 50 points per game. Former Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker is my midseason Heisman winner after what he and star wide out Jalin Hyatt did to Alabama. We always knew Hooker had a great deep ball and could make things happen with his legs, but his decision-making has made this Tennessee team so scary. Despite 194 attempts through the air, he has just one interception, and looks in complete command of everything that's happening on offense. With Hyatt and Bru McCoy terrorizing defenses on the outside, things open up for Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright underneath, a fun 1-2 combo that remains an underrated element of this offense. There's also hope that another Volunteer could be returning offensively as well, in the form of Cedric Tillman. Tillman has missed nearly the entire season, but it sounds like he's progressing well and could return this weekend. If so, that gives Tennessee another weapon for Hooker, and a dangerous one at that. Prior to his injury, Tillman entered the fall as the team's top receiver, before Hyatt's breakout campaign. Does Kentucky have any shot at containing this offense? They'll try and manufacture some pressure and hope to create turnovers, but it's hard to see them having much success. It's not just the tempo of the Tennessee offense that makes them so overwhelming, they play so crisp and in control. It's a lot like what Baylor did in the peak Art Briles days, but even more effective because of Hooker's decision-making and rushing ability. 

The hope for Kentucky is that they can slow down the pace and muck up the game. It's certainly not a bad strategy and this has been a physical team throughout the Mark Stoops era. They are well-rested coming off a bye, but have to go to Neyland Stadium to attempt to spring an upset. I don't think Tennessee will be caught looking ahead, the energy in the program just feels different this year.

The Pick: Tennessee, 45 Kentucky, 30

Michigan State Spartans @ (#4) Michigan Wolverines

Line: Michigan -22

O/U: 54.5

Michigan-Michigan State was one of the games of the year in 2021 and we now get the 2022 edition, albeit with vastly different circumstances. Michigan is once again in the thick of the CFB Playoff race and looks arguably better than the 2021 team, while Michigan State sits 3-4 and is just battling to make a bowl. Yet, rivalry games can always get a bit weird, and the Spartans are hoping to to get their season back-on-track by beating Jim Harbaugh for the third straight season.

It's never easy to bench a quarterback who led you to a College Football Playoff appearance, but that's exactly what Jim Harbaugh did when he named J.J. McCarthy the starter over Cade McNamara. The decision has paid off, as McCarthy's big arm and dynamic rushing ability has opened up this offense in a variety of ways. However, this remains an offense that is led by its rushing attack, with my midseason Doak Walker Award winner, Blake Corum. Corum has been unstoppable this fall, totaling 901 yards and 13 touchdowns, and has hit the century mark in yardage in four straight games. He has to be thrilled to go up against a Michigan State defense that has struggled all season long. Neither the pass defense nor rush defense has been able to string together consecutive weeks of strong play and even with an All-American talent in Jacoby Windmon, the Spartan defensive front is at a severe mismatch. The Wolverines can also keep Corum fresh by leaning on Donovan Edwards, a nice change-of-pace weapon. Although, Edwards was involved in controversy earlier in the week, you would assume he will be playing this Saturday. Add in Ronnie Bell on the perimeter and I have no doubt Michigan will have success moving the football, particularly as they come off a bye.

If Michigan State is to spring an upset, they need more from this offense. The defensive struggles have been frustrating but somewhat expected, but the offensive woes are the real surprise. It's clear that Kenneth Walker III's worth to this offense went far beyond is stat-line, and the Spartans have struggled to find playmakers to replace him. QB Payton Thorne has been a major disappointment, due in large to turnover issues. It certainly looks like Thorne is feeling the pressure of the team's struggles and pressing to try and make things happen, which will not bode well against this opportunistic Wolverine defense. It would help if his receiver corps could develop more consistency, and there appears to be good news on that front. Keon Coleman popped off early before some struggles, but hauled in two touchdown passes against Wisconsin, while Jayden Reed is healthy and playing well. Those two should be able to provide pressure down-the-field, but the Spartans also need a rush offense to keep this Michigan defense honest. Jalen Berger had a huge two-game stretch to open 2022, but has been held in check since, and none of the other pieces on this roster have stepped up. It's a tough matchup against a Wolverine defense that remains one of the best in the nation, despite the turnover they faced this offseason. There is no Aidan Hutchinson on this year's defense, but the defensive front is still physical and well-coached, and the back-end has been led by converted receiver Mike Sanristil. It will take some creativity to move the ball against this unit, and that's not something Michigan State OC Jay Johnson is necessarily known for. 

Rivalry games can get wacky, but it remains difficult to find a reason to take Michigan State in an upset. They got back on track by beating Wisconsin, but this remains one of the nation's most disappointing teams and they have to go to Ann Arbor. Perhaps the offense can match Michigan blow-for-blow for a little, but in the end it will be the Wolverines on top.

The Pick: Michigan, 34 Michigan State, 17 (Michigan State cover)

Other Picks

(#9) Oklahoma State @ (#22) Kansas State -- Manhattan is a more difficult place to play than most give it credit for, but Adrian Martinez is beat up and Oklahoma State is the better team top-to-bottom.

The Pick: Oklahoma State, 28 Kansas State, 20

Florida @ (#1) Georgia -- The latest iteration of the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" could be interesting if the Gator defense can find a way to slow down Stetson Bennett and company, but Florida's maddeningly inconsistent offense makes it difficult to pick an upset.

The Pick: Georgia, 35 Florida, 22

(#17) Illinois @ Nebraska -- Illinois is already firmly in the driver's seat in the Big Ten West, but they could move to 4-1 in the league with a win. The 'Huskers have shown more fight under Mickey Joseph, but the defense simply doesn't have the pieces to slow down Chase Brown and company.

The Pick: Illinois, 27 Nebraska, 14

Upset: Texas A&M over (#15) Ole Miss -- Things are looking dire at A&M right now as they sit at 3-4, but this is still an incredibly talented team that always fights hard at Kyle Field. Plus, I'm still not convinced Ole Miss is a Top 15 nationally, especially with the defense struggling over the last several weeks.

The Pick: Texas A&M, 30 Ole Miss, 27

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Georgia Tech (+25) @ Florida State -- I'm a bit surprised at this line. Florida State has lost three straight, albeit all against ranked foes, but it's Georgia Tech that is the real story, as they've looked like a completely different team under interim head coach Brent Key. To be fair, the health of Jeff Sims is a major factor, as he remains day-to-day.

The Pick: Florida State, 33 Georgia Tech, 14

Lock of the Week (has to be a favorite): Wake Forest (-3) @ Louisville -- Vegas seems to like the chance of a potential upset, but the Demon Deacons and Sam Hartman should be able to shred a porous Louisville defense.

The Pick: Wake Forest, 38 Louisville, 27

2022 College Football Picks: Week Eight

Bo Nix, Oregon

Current Picks Record: 37-26

Upset: 4-3

Superdogs: 3-4

Lock: 2-5

(#9) UCLA Bruins @ (#10) Oregon Ducks

Line: Oregon -6.5

O/U: 71

With USC's loss to Utah last weekend, UCLA takes over as the lone undefeated in the Pac-12 and the league's best opportunity to make the College Football Playoff. They get their toughest game of the season in Week Eight, as they travel to Eugene to square off against an Oregon Ducks team that has been fantastic since the season-opening loss to Georgia.

The Bruins have been led by a balanced, productive offense that includes backfield mates Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet. "DTR" has silenced detractors with his play this fall, throwing for 1,510 yards and 15 touchdowns, while adding 231 and four more with his legs. In the past, his play in big games and decision-making were two notable concerns, but that hasn't been the case in 2022. He's taking care of the ball and playing the best in the biggest moments, including going for 299 and four touchdowns against Utah. His dual-threat ability softens up defenses, while Charbonnet pounds away with his bruising rushing ability. The former Michigan transfer has topped 100 yards in three consecutive weeks and is fresh off a dominant showing against the Utes. It will be interesting to see how the pair plays against an Oregon defense that has been terrific since the opening week. Oregon is more athletic than Utah on the back-end, but the key will be in the trenches. UCLA has been surprisingly physical en route to their 6-0 start, typically not a hallmark of Chip Kelly teams. They pounded Utah two weeks ago and while Oregon has plenty of size to counter, it will be the most difficult test they've seen since Georgia.

The Duck offense has been scorching hot the last five games, topping 40 in each contest. Quarterback Bo Nix is a magnet for criticism, but there shouldn't be any denying just how effective he has been in 2022. He's improved as a passer down-the-field, but his rushing ability has helped energize this Oregon offense. He's run all over Stanford and Arizona in consecutive weeks to the tune of five touchdowns, but faces a much more significant challenge in UCLA. Even so, the Bruins are going to have to find a way to not only contain Nix, but also stop the deep stable of backs the Ducks boast. Bucky Irving leads the team in attempts and is their home run threat, but he's far from the only option the Ducks can throw at you. Noah Whittington has offered a nice change-of-pace, as has Sean Dollars. There's also still hope that Byron Cardwell could return from injury this weekend, as he hasn't played since their blowout victory over Eastern Washington. On the perimeter, Troy Franklin and former Bruin Chase Cota offer enough playmaking to keep defenses honest, but the reality is that Oregon will go as the rushing attack goes. The Bruins have done an elite job containing the rush all season, but they haven't faced a running back with the athleticism and depth of the Ducks. Offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham is also very creative in getting his running backs out in space in unique ways. This offense uses shifts and different blocking schemes to consistently keep defenses off-balance, and they'll likely be throwing some new things at UCLA in this one.

UCLA has been a great story all season long, but I fear their perfect record won't last into next week. Oregon is the most talented team, top-to-bottom, in the Pac-12 and they've looked unstoppable over the last month. To be fair, the Bruins present a tougher test than who the Ducks have been playing, but Oregon also gets the advantage of getting them in Autzen Stadium. 

The Pick: Oregon, 31 UCLA, 27 (UCLA cover)

(#14) Syracuse Orange @ (#5) Clemson Tigers

Line: Clemson -13.5

O/U: 49.5

Despite building a strong resume over the season's first month-and-a-half, Clemson doesn't seem to be getting quite as much national respect as recent years. Even so, they have an opportunity to essentially lock up the ACC Atlantic in late October as they welcome in their greatest competition in the division, Syracuse.

D.J. Uiagalelei faced an entire offseason hearing whispers of a quarterback competition at Clemson, and has responded with a fantastic 2022. He's looked much more accurate and confident as a passer, but it's his rushing ability that has added an interesting element to this Tiger offense. At 6'4", 235 pounds, he's always been a load to bring down, but he seems to have more burst this year, forcing defenses to key in on the run more than a season ago. It also helps that his receiver corps has been healthier and more consistent this fall, elevating a passing attack that lagged all of 2021. Antonio Williams looks like a lock to be a Freshman All-American, while Beaux Collins and Joseph Ngata can challenge opposing defenses down-the-field. Add in two capable tight ends in Davis Allen and Jake Briningstool and Clemson has no shortage of weapons, which was simply not the case last fall. At running back, Will Shipley continues to be a focal point of the attack, and he got back into a rhythm against Florida State last weekend after two down games. All of these Clemson weapons are rolling right now, but they face arguably their toughest test of the regular season in the Orange defense. This is a well-coached group and one with a lot more athleticism on the back-end than most give them credit for. I wouldn't be surprised if Clemson relies heavily on their ground game once again, as they have for most of the season.

After two down seasons, Syracuse has been the ACC's biggest surprise this fall. Dino Babers' group is not necessarily flashy with anything they do, but they have a very capable offense and take care of the football. Quarterback Garrett Shrader is a bit different than past quarterbacks Babers has had here at Syracuse; he's not much of a gunslinger, but takes his chances when he needs to and does most of his damage with his legs. Shrader is hoping he can get back on track this week after throwing for two interceptions against a ball-hawking NC State defense. At running back, Sean Tucker is potentially the most underrated player in the entire country, a consistent contributor who has been the fuel of the offense the entire season. He's gone for 644 yards and six scores on the year, but has struggled against some of the better defenses on the schedule, most notably Purdue and Virginia. Going up against Clemson will be the ultimate test for the sophomore; the Tigers are allowing just 82.7 yards per game on the ground and are the healthiest they've been all season along the defensive front. Shrader and Tucker simply are not going to have the same opportunities they've had the entire season and the offensive line isn't going to be able to get the same push. That will force play-caller Robert Anae to open up the playbook a bit more in this one. He's known as one of the most innovative minds in college football and should be able to manufacture yards in creative ways, but I don't suspect a shootout in this game. With both defenses, I suspect it's going to more of a field position battle and defensive contest than a game that is lighting up the scoreboard.

Syracuse has played Clemson tough throughout the Babers era, including a shocking upset in 2017. But, this just doesn't have the feel of a game where the Orange are able to go into Death Valley and come away with a decisive victory. The defense will be able to keep things competitive, but I just don't see the offense doing enough to win the game, especially with the Tigers slowly getting healthier on the back-end. 

The Pick: Clemson, 35 Syracuse, 21

(#17) Kansas State Wildcats @ (#8) TCU Horned Frogs

Line: TCU -3.5

O/U: 53

Few teams have had a more difficult October stretch than TCU, who is now playing in their fourth game against a ranked foe. Granted, Oklahoma and Kansas were both a bit overrated, but the Horned Frogs still deserve plenty of credit for getting to Week Eight undefeated. Next up is No. 17 Kansas State, who is tied with the Horned Frogs atop the Big 12 standings at 3-0. 

TCU quarterback Max Duggan has taken advantage of an injury to starter Chandler Morris, putting together his best season since he arrived in Fort Worth. The veteran has always been a tough rusher, which hasn't changed this fall, but his passing ability seems to have been taken up a notch. He's thrown for 1,591 yards and 16 touchdowns up to this point, with just one interception and a 70% completion percentage. He's been arguably the best QB in the Big 12 up to this point and is commanding a fun, productive TCU offense. Joining Duggan is a deep and dynamic running back corps, spearheaded by Kendre Miller. Miller is averaging 6.4 yards per carry despite being the feature back in the offense, while Duggan and Emari Demercado provide complementary playmaking on the ground. Quentin Johnston has been arguably the nation's best receiver over the last several weeks, while versatile Taye Barber can hurt defenses in a wide variety of ways. Overall, it's a fun offense, one that plays a bit different than past Sonny Dykes-coaches teams, but just as effective. They should have an interesting battle against this Kansas State defense, a group that's short on star power but always plays hard. I don't envision quite as many big plays as we've seen in past TCU contests, but for this unit to be more methodical and conservative in how they approach the Wildcats. That doesn't mean they won't put up points, but the game-plan may look a bit different this weekend.

It looked like Kansas State's season might go sideways following an unimpressive 17-10 loss to Tulane in mid-September, but Chris Klieman's team has responded in a big way. They've won three straight and now travel to TCU with a chance at sole possession of first place in the conference. Oft-criticized signal-caller Adrian Martinez has been an excellent addition to the offense. He's still not much of a passer, but his speed and vision in the open-field has still helped open up the Wildcat playbook. He ran all over Oklahoma and Texas Tech in consecutive weeks, then proved he could do it against strong defenses too, by going for 77 yards against Iowa State. TCU has a capable front seven, but finding a way to contain Martinez while demonstrating some respect to the passing game is difficult, especially when you throw in Deuce Vaughn. The 5'6" junior was held in check by the Cyclones a week ago, but remains one of the most exciting players in college football. He truly is the type of player that can break open games anytime he touches the ball and TCU has undoubtedly been game-planning for him the entire week. 

This game feels like a complete coin-flip to me. I've picked TCU the last several weeks and it has paid off, but someone is going to get the Horned Frogs at some point in the near future. Kansas State is a super tough opponent at this point in the season, but they're an extremely one-dimensional team and they have to go into Amon G. Carter Stadium. Even so, I'm actually taking the road underdog to come away with a massive victory. Martinez and Vaughn should be able to carve up a TCU defense that has been mediocre all season, and the disciplined Wildcat defense should slow down Duggan and company enough to secure the win.

The Pick: Kansas State, 24 TCU, 20

Other Picks

Iowa @ (#2) Ohio State -- This has been an opponent that has traditionally played Ohio State tough, but it's hard to believe Iowa has much chance at springing an upset this fall. The defense might be able to contain Ohio State's weapons for a half, but the Buckeyes should run away with it.

The Pick: Ohio State, 38 Iowa, 13

(#24) Mississippi State @ (#6) Alabama -- A very tough opponent for Alabama following their first loss of the season, but Nick Saban should have this Tide team back with a vengeance. Bryce Young is also a week healthier and should be able to do plenty of damage against an inconsistent Bulldog defense.

The Pick: Alabama, 34 Mississippi State, 24

(#20) Texas @ (#11) Oklahoma State -- This game is overshadowed by TCU-Kansas State, but also has crucial implications in the Big 12. The Longhorns messed around last week with Iowa State, but they are still the far and away better team, even in Stillwater.

The Pick: Texas, 30 Oklahoma State, 20

Upset: SMU over (#21) Cincinnati -- Although they remain in the hunt for a New Year's Six Bowl at 5-1, Cincinnati has been very underwhelming at this point in the season. SMU may be maddeningly inconsistent, but I like their upset chances at home.

The Pick: SMU, 28 Cincinnati, 24

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): UNLV (+27.5) @ Notre Dame -- A clear mismatch in terms of brand reputation, but as far as on-field play goes, I'm a bit surprised at this spread. UNLV has been terrible the last two weeks, but they are hopeful to get QB Doug Brumfield back from a concussion, and Notre Dame's offense continues to be lethargic.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 27 UNLV, 10

Lock of the Week (has to be a favorite): Penn State (-5) vs. Minnesota -- I hate locking up anybody against my Gophers, but the reality is that Minnesota QB Athan Kaliakmanis could be making his first collegiate start in a Penn State "Whiteout" game. Even if Tanner Morgan is able to go, the Gopher offense has lacked the energy needed to go on the road and win in one of college football's harshest environments.

The Pick: Penn State, 31 Minnesota, 21