Bowl Picks 2021-22: Quick Lane Bowl - Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 27 - Dec. 28)

 

Tanner Morgan, Minnesota (Guaranteed Rate Bowl)

Quick Lane Bowl (December 27)

Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (8-4)

A pair of quality Group of Five teams clash in Detroit with one looking to end the year on a high note. Western Michigan went 7-5 and beat ACC Champion Pittsburgh, while Nevada finished 8-4 and also beat a Power Five program in California. 

Western Michigan has gone through a rough stretch over the past month-and-a-half, but they still have enough pieces to cause Nevada real problems. Quarterback Kaleb Eleby has had an impressive sophomore campaign and is also coming off a highlight-reel performance against Northern Illinois, when he went for 338 yards and five touchdowns. Eleby is blessed with a dangerous group of receivers, led by one of the nation's most underrated in Skyy Moore, who recorded 91 catches and 1,256 yards on the regular season. The Wolf Pack will undoubtedly key in on Moore, so expect fellow pass-catchers Jaylen Hall and Corey Crooms to also feature in. In the backfield, Eleby is joined by tailbacks Sean Tyler and La'Darius Jefferson, a former Michigan State transfer. Tyler is the big-play threat of the pair, an elusive runner who went over 1,000 yards this fall, while Jefferson led the team in attempts and has been very effective over the last few weeks. They present a stiff challenge to a Nevada defense that has been a fascinating watch all season. The Wolf Pack fit the mold of a "bend not break" unit, letting up a decent amount of yardage all season, but surrendering just 24.4 PPG. Whether they can keep that up against a Western Michigan group that has been consistent all year long remains to be seen.

The Wolf Pack as a whole are undergoing a transition, as they move on from the Jay Norvell and Carson Strong era. Norvell took the head coaching job at Colorado State, while Strong, the team's star quarterback, has announced his intentions to go pro and forego the bowl game. Backup Nate Cox is the likely starter at quarterback, a former junior college product who has played sparingly behind Strong. Cox should benefit from the fact that Nevada should still have their entire supporting cast playing, and it's one heck of a supporting cast. Receivers Romeo Doubs and Tory Horton are elite playmakers, while tight end Cole Turner is one of the best in the nation at his position. Out of the backfield is Toa Taua, a workhorse who has notched 704 yards in this pass-first offense. Backup Devonte Lee has had a quiet 2021 but in the past has proven he can make things happen. I'm curious to see how aggressive the Wolf Pack offense is in general; new head coach Ken Wilson is a defensive guy who will probably look to establish the run, but the offense still has the tools to put up a lot of points. 

The fact that Strong is not playing and Norvell is gone makes this is a difficult one to pick. I would have had no reservations picking Nevada previously, even though WMU is a quality team, but we aren't completely sure what Wolf Pack team is coming out on the field. Even so, Western Michigan's recent rough stretch and the fact that Nevada should still have most of their supporting cast playing makes them my selection.

The Pick: Nevada, 27 Western Michigan, 23

Birmingham Bowl (December 28)

Houston Cougars (11-2) vs. Auburn Tigers (6-6)

Although they were overshadowed by Cincinnati in the American Athletic, Houston put together a special 2021 under Dana Holgorsen. They are hoping to add one more line item to the resume they've built by taking down an SEC team, Auburn, who was struggled down the stretch. 

Offensively, this is not the most prolific group Holgorsen has coached, but it has been effective, putting up over 37 points per game. Quarterback Clayton Tune has been the perfect catalyst for the unit; although he hasn't put jaw-dropping numbers, he has been productive all season and takes care of the football. It helps that there is a nice collection of pass-catchers to throw the ball to, punctuated by Nathaniel Dell, who went over 1,000 yards on the year during the AAC Championship Game. Dell has not only had a special season, but he's done so against strong defenses, including going for 152 against Cincinnati, which should test the athletic Auburn secondary. Jeremy Singleton and the ultra-versatile KeSean Carter will also provide plenty of reason for the Tiger defense and coordinator Derek Mason to worry. On the ground, the Cougars can turn to any one of the trio of Alton McCaskill, Ta'Zhawn Henry, and Mulbah Carr. McCaskill has been a touchdown machine as a freshman, but Henry and Carr are two veterans who have proven they can move the chains when given the opportunity. It will be an interesting battle in the trenches between these two teams; Houston is a lot bigger up front than most Group of Five teams, but this is an SEC defensive line that will look to bring the physicality for the entire sixty. One other note: do-it-all corner Marcus Jones will not be playing for Houston, robbing them of not only a quality corner, but their star special teams player. Jones' ability to put them in great field position regularly wasn't always given the appreciation it deserved and we will see how it impacts the Cougars in this one.

It's going to be a weird game for Auburn, as they've seen numerous offensive contributors hit the transfer portal in recent weeks. Legacy quarterback Bo Nix has already announced he will be transferring to Oregon, meaning that former LSU transfer T.J. Finley is the likely starter. Finley has all the tools and makeup you look for in a quarterback, but the production just hasn't been there yet. It would help him if one or two receivers were to break out of the pack and emerge, but nobody has been able to do consistently. Kobe Hudson, Demetris Robertson, and Shedrick Jackson have all had their moments, but nobody has stepped up to be the true No. 1. Robertson is the big name, a former Georgia transfer who was a Freshman All-American all the way back in 2016, but he's been fairly quiet down the stretch. The running back situation is an interesting one, as Tank Bigsby also hit the portal before announcing he was coming back. Auburn will lean on Bigsby, but he hasn't been 100 percent healthy for most of the year and the huge sophomore breakout many saw coming hasn't completely materialized. It's been helpful that backfield Jarquez Hunter has come out of seemingly nowhere to have such a grand season, but the big-play threat has been completely shut down over the last several weeks. Additionally, the transfer of Nix and situational back Shaun Shivers has depleted the Auburn ground game significantly, putting more pressure on Finley.

The SEC has opened bowl season 0-2 and there seems to be a good chance they could stay winless after the Birmingham Bowl. Although not having Jones make things tougher, Houston has a legit football team that has the talent to compete with the Tigers. Tune could be in store for his toughest matchup of the year against a good Auburn secondary, but he should be ready for the moment, and help deliver UH their 12th win of 2021.

The Pick: Houston, 33 Auburn, 24

First Responder Bowl (December 28)

Air Force Falcons (9-3) vs. Louisville Cardinals (6-6)

Air Force tends to get lost in the shuffle when discussing triple-option teams, but Troy Calhoun's team once again delivered a strong season, going 9-3 and nearly playing for a Mountain West Championship. They square off in the First Responder Bowl against Louisville, who has been a team full of ups-and-downs but did enough to reach a bowl at 6-6.

As a triple-option offense, it's all about the ground game for the Falcons. They average over 340 yards per game on the ground and have an abundance of different backs that can hurt you. Junior Brad Roberts led the team with 1,279 yards and 13 scores, but this is a deep backfield. Quarterback Haaziq Daniels runs the option to perfection and is a magician with the pitch, while totaling over 700 yards with his legs this fall. Additionally, fullbacks Emmanuel Michel and Omar Fattah, as well as receiver DeAndre Hughes will also get in on the action. Obviously, Air Force will not throw too much, but wide out Brandon Lewis has proven he is their top target when they do so, and he's averaging 28 yards per catch. Up front, Air Force doesn't have a ton of size, but it's an athletic group that plays hard. It won't be the toughest O-Line the Cardinals have seen this season, but won't be a breeze either.

It's always a mystery what you are getting from Louisville game-in, game-out. After going for 41 and 62 against Syracuse and Duke in back-to-back weeks, the Cardinals were held in check by Kentucky in their final game of the regular season. Quarterback Malik Cunningham has already announced he will be returning in 2021 and is the team's top passer and rusher, but he desperately needs others to step up alongside him. Young tailback Jalen Mitchell has been the team's most consistent weapon beyond Cunningham, while tight end Marshon Ford and wideout Jordan Watkins are the top playmakers on the perimeter. Cunningham and Ford will present difficult challenges for this Air Force defense; Cunningham is a true dual threat averaging six yards per rush, while Ford is a tough matchup. At 6'2", 240 pounds with good speed and soft hands, he's the perfect blend between receiver and tight end. One name I'm surprised Louisville has not used more in 2021 is Georgia Southern transplant Shai Werts. Werts was a triple-option QB who switched to wide out when he came to Louisville, but just hasn't seen much action. Bowl games are the perfect time to dig deep in the playbook and try some trick plays, which could feature Werts in some way.

As I said in my prediction for the Army-Missouri Armed Forces Bowl, picking triple-option teams in bowl games is an imperfect science. You can never be sure how a team prepares for it or how effective it will be in defending it in a one-game setting. The Cardinals have improved defensively, but this is still a group that can occasionally have bad stretches. Air Force is a unique team and with Daniels and Roberts leading the way, I like their chances to upset a Power Five program.

The Pick: Air Force, 23 Louisville, 17

Liberty Bowl (December 28)

Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-5) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6)

Even though they fired their head coach mid-season, Texas Tech found their way to a bowl game. They will hope to impress the new staff as they square off against Mississippi State, who went 7-5, but beat a handful of ranked teams on the year.

This is a Mike Leach-coached Mississippi State program, so it's no surprise that they love to air the ball out. They have the nation's third-ranked pass offense, led by a budding star at quarterback in sophomore Will Rogers. Many people saw a breakout coming for Rogers, but I'm not sure how many expected the type of growth we've seen from him, as he's flashed seriously improved decision-making and has played with a lot of confidence. He's supported by a plethora of talented pass-catchers, which also includes backs Dillon Johnson and Jo'quavious Marks. Makai Polk has emerged as the leading target on the season, but he's far from the only Bulldog that can hurt you. Jaden Walley, Austin Williams, and Malik Heath have proven their worth time and time again and should look to test the Red Raider secondary vertically. I am curious to see how Texas Tech handles the Air Raid and Mississippi State as a whole. In the old Big 12, Texas Tech saw these types of offenses regularly, but the league has become much more defense and rush offense-oriented. It will actually end up being a change of pace seeing such a wide-open, aggressive passing offense.

The Red Raiders are a fairly balanced offense, but they may choose to lean more on the ground than usual thanks to the opt-out of star receiver Erik Ezukanma. Ezukanma is a major loss; although his numbers aren't exactly gaudy, he was the security blanket of the offense, a player who they could always throw it up to when they needed a play or conversion. His absence puts more pressure on a young, but talented, receiver corps that includes names like Kaylon Geiger and Myles Price. An even larger question than Ezukanma's absence is who the starting QB will be. Texas Tech has switched between a trio of signal-callers this season, which includes Oregon transfer Tyler Shough. Shough doesn't sound like he will be playing in this game, leaving Donovan Smith or Henry Colombi as the likely starters. Colombi began the year as the starter but lost his job and gave way to Smith, who has been solid but not spectacular. Heck, we may even see freshman Behren Morton, a highly prized recruit who has only thrown three passes in his first year on campus. Tech will probably try to establish the run, turning to either Tahj Brooks or SaRodorick Thompson. Brooks is more of the big-play threat, while Thompson is the every-down tailback, but they're in for a challenge against a tough Mississippi State front that likely includes numerous future NFL players.

The Red Raiders deserve a lot of credit for getting to a bowl game and not mailing in the season, but they are likely to be overmatched. They don't have the secondary to compete with the Bulldogs the whole way and the offense is full of questions right now. There's also some extra motivation for Leach, who is looking for some form of redemption against the program that he once ran.

The Pick: Mississippi State, 41 Texas Tech, 24

Holiday Bowl (December 28)

UCLA Bruins (8-4) vs. NC State Wolfpack (9-3)

The Holiday Bowl is traditionally one of the best non-New Year's bowls of the entire cycle and it should be a good one in 2021 as well. 8-4 UCLA is playing in their first bowl under Chip Kelly, while NC State is a respectable 9-3 and came up just short of playing for the ACC Title. 

This isn't a UCLA team that plays exactly like the Chip Kelly Oregon teams of old, but they do love to run the ball and can play up-tempo. The 1-2 punch of Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown in the backfield has been a load for opponents to handle. Both are powerful runners who have been efficient all season, and have had success even against quality defenses. They're joined by QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who can still be a frustrating watch at times, but has proven himself as a game-changer. Thompson-Robinson has shown steady progress as a passer, but the most dangerous aspect of his game remains his legs, as he finished just behind Brown with 609 yards of rushing. The receiver corps is full of unsung heroes, including Kyle Phillips, tight end Greg Dulcich, and do-it-all Kaz Allen. Phillips is a reception machine who has shown he can test defenses over-the-top, while Dulcich is a matchup problem at tight end. Allen will get his touches as both a running back and receiver, but is still looking for his true coming out party on the season. NC State's defense has put together a strong 2021, so it should be a fun battle between the two on that side of the ball. The Wolfpack are especially strong at linebacker, so the in-game duel of the rush offense versus rush defense will be intriguing.

Even though they have two very capable tailbacks in Ricky Person and Zonovan "Bam" Knight, NC State leans on their aerial attack quite a bit. Quarterback Devin Leary, who missed most of 2020, has come back with a vengeance this fall. He's thrown for 3,433 yards and 35 touchdowns on the season and while he's not known as a dual threat, he moves pretty well in the pocket. Leary is also fresh off a big-time showing in the victory over arch-rival UNC, in which he finished with four touchdowns against a defense full of future NFL guys. NC State has numerous receivers that will test a UCLA defense that has been streaky all year long. The top name is Emeka Emezie, but possession receiver Thayer Thomas also plays a massive role. Devin Carter and talented youngster Porter Rooks are also going to get their targets; Carter had a huge game against Wake Forest but has been held in check the last two weeks, so he will be eager to make things happen. Then there's Knight and Person, who split time very evenly. Knight finished with slightly more attempts and yardage, but Person is a veteran who has played a lot of football and will be looking for a grand finale to cap off 2021.

A pretty evenly matched game between two quality Power Five programs, I'm leaning UCLA here. Sure, you can never quite be sure what you're getting from Thompson-Robinson but I still love the offense and they've been particularly hot over the last month, dominating their final three opponents. Sure, beating Cal, Colorado and USC is different than NC State, but I still think the Bruins get the job done in a close game.

The Pick: UCLA, 34 NC State, 30

Guaranteed Rate Bowl (December 28)

West Virginia Mountaineers (6-6) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4)

The Big 12 and Big Ten collide in the new Guaranteed Rate Bowl, which pits a .500 West Virginia team against Minnesota, who went 8-4 and beat arch-rival Wisconsin but for some reason was passed over for several most prestigious bowl games.

West Virginia has been streaky offensively all season long. They've had a mix of very impressive performances and truly putrid showings, which means we can never quite be sure what edition is coming out every week. They throw the ball more than they run, but star back Leddie Brown put together a strong 2021, finishing with 1,065 yards and 13 scores. Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, Brown is going pro and has already announced he will opt out of this game, leaving them without their best playmaker. That puts more pressure on the shoulders of veteran QB Jarret Doege, who epitomizes West Virginia's inconsistency. Doege has a big arm and is fairly accurate, but his decision-making has always been a problem and he faces a hungry Minnesota secondary that includes a mix of veterans and young talent, such as Freshman All-American Justin Walley. Doege's top weapon in the passing game is Winston Wright Jr., who has 60 receptions and 672 yards on the season. Expect Sam James and Sean Ryan to also feature heavily in the attack and keep an eye on Kaden Prather, a young wide out who I expect to have a breakout season in 2022. Up front, the O-Line has also been inconsistent but has been generally solid on the year. They face a Minnesota pass rush that has improved tremendously in 2021 after a bad 2020, thanks in large part to the addition of Clemson transfer Nyles Pinckney and the breakout of end Boye Mafe.

Even though Minnesota has suffered through a rash of injuries in their backfield, as well as vanilla play-calling from the now-fired OC Mike Sanford Jr., they've put up solid numbers in 2021. That can be credited to numerous things; for one, the offensive line is one of the most veteran-laden groups in college football. Just as importantly has been the surprising success of young running backs Mar'Keise "Bucky" Irving and Ky Thomas. Thomas and Irving have watched as numerous players in front of them have gone down with season-ending injuries, including reigning Big Ten RB of the Year Mo Ibrahim. They've made the most of their opportunity, as Thomas finished as the team's leading rusher and has finished the year in a big way. Although Matt Simon, the co-OC who is calling plays in this game, will try to open up this offense more than Sanford, Irving and Thomas will get a healthy dosage of action. As for the passing game, QB Tanner Morgan has had some struggles, but is the type of steadying presence at the position plenty of teams would love to have. It hasn't been smooth sailing for Morgan, as he lost his dad in the off-season and has seen his receiver corps crippled by injury, but the veteran has handled it well. It sounds like Chris Autman-Bell, who has been dominant when healthy but has been beat up a ton this fall, is 100 percent and ready to build momentum for a huge 2022 (he's announced he will be returning for a sixth year). The Gophers are still waiting on another one of their young wide outs to consistently show up, whether it be Dylan Wright, Daniel Jackson, or someone new. Wright had a strong start to 2021 but has faded down the stretch, but he could be in store for a big day against a mediocre West Virginia pass defense. One other note to make: Kirk Ciarrocca, who was OC for Minnesota in 2019, will be returning to the same role in 2022 after spending this season on the WVU staff as an analyst. Ciarrocca will not be coaching at all in this game, but he should provide Minnesota with nice insight for this game.

I'll admit some bias in picking this bowl game considering I've been a lifelong Gopher fan, but they are the smarter pick at this point. They haven't lost any key pieces to opt-outs like the Mountaineers have, and P.J. Fleck has had plenty of postseason success with the program. 

The Pick: Minnesota, 31 West Virginia, 20

Bowl Picks 2021-22: Frisco Football Classic - Camellia Bowl (Dec. 23 - Dec. 25)

Emory Jones, Florida (Gasparilla Bowl)

Frisco Football Classic (December 23)

North Texas Mean Green (6-6) vs. Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (6-6)

A pair of .500 teams who finished their regular seasons strong will hope to keep things rolling in the new Frisco Football Classic, as North Texas clashes with Miami (Ohio). North Texas began the year 1-6 and it looked like head coach Seth Littrell may be on his way out, while the Redhawks began 2-4 but flipped the script to go 6-6.

The Mean Green under Littrell have gained a reputation for explosive offenses, particularly through the air. This edition still has a high-scoring offense but they go about it in a different way, leaning more on a tough ground game than the aerial attack. They have the third-ranked rush offense in the country, with DeAndre Torrey leading the way after rushing for over 1,200 yards on the season. Torrey is the feature guy, but he's far from the only guy that hit a huge run. Ikaika Ragsdale and Ayo Adeyi both have proven to bring plenty of playmaking when needed, with Adeyi always looking to burst open a huge play. In their last two games, Adeyi has only ran the ball 16 times, but has recorded 158 yards and two scores. North Texas and their depth in the backfield is a commodity most Group of Five teams don't have, giving them an interesting advantage against a rock-solid Miami defense. The passing game, on the other hand, has simply not lived to expectations in 2021. A pair of former Power Five transplants, Austin Aune and Jace Ruder, have split quarterback duties but neither have gotten the job done. They've combined for an underwhelming 12-12 TD-INT ratio and there doesn't seem to be much confidence when they've chosen to throw. The assumption is that Aune will start and there's options on the outside, but I'm not confident that the team's weakness all season will be magically solved leading up to bowl practice.

The Redhawks have relied on their defense for much of the season, but this is an offense that has proven they can put up points. Quarterback Brett Gabbert, the younger brother of NFL veteran Blaine, has followed up a productive first season on campus in 2019 by throwing for 2,418 yards and 24 touchdowns. Gabbert has impressive arm talent and plays with a lot of confidence, but he can't take too many risks against a North Texas secondary that finished the year hot. At receiver, the Redhawks boast one of the best 1-2 punches anywhere in the country, let alone the MAC. Jack Sorenson is the best receiver you've never heard of; the veteran is a crisp route runner and tremendous athlete who finished the regular season with 69 receptions for 1,290 yards. Sorenson is going to get a shot at the next level. He's been helped out by the emergence of Mac Hippenhammer, who began his career at Penn State. Hippenhammer hasn't been as consistent as Sorenson, but he's the type of talent you don't often see at a place like Miami Ohio. Add in a tough matchup in tight end Jack Coldiron, and there's enough on this roster to cause the Mean Green real fits, no matter how they finished off the months of October and November.

Littrell deserves a bunch of credit for keeping this North Texas team from throwing in the towel and instead securing five straight wins. With that being said, I like the Redhawks here; this is a much better team than a 6-6 record may indicate. Their last three losses have been by a combined four points, including a heart-wrencher on the road to Kent State to finish the regular season. Gabbert, Sorenson and Hippenhammer should give them more than enough to end the Mean Green win streak.

The Pick: Miami (Ohio), 37 North Texas, 27

Gasparilla Bowl (December 23)

UCF Knights (8-4) vs. Florida Gators (6-6)

Ever since UCF's "National Championship" season in 2017 and their recent run of success, college football fans have clamored for the opportunity to see them play one of the big boys in the Sunshine State. They'll get that chance this bowl season, albeit against one of the weaker Florida teams in the past decade, as the Gators needed to win their final two games to reach the postseason.

UCF's offense hasn't quite up to the preseason expectations many had after they brought in Gus Malzahn as head coach, but much of that can be credited to the loss of star QB Dillon Gabriel. Gabriel broke his clavicle and has since transferred to UCLA, opening the door for Mikey Keene. Despite being incredibly young, Keene has handled QB1 duties admirably, taking care of the football and generally making the right reads. It hurts that there hasn't been much consistent offensive support around him; loads of Knights have had stretches of success, but they've been unable to string it along for multiple weeks. Receivers Brandon Johnson and Ryan O'Keefe have had their moments, but they've been streaky. O'Keefe is the possession wide out who will work underneath, while Johnson came over from Tennessee and has brought home-run ability with him. At running back, Isaiah Bowser had a huge first week against Boise State but has dealt with injuries and a mediocre offensive line in front of him. Instead, it's been Johnny Richardson who has taken over feature back duties. He's a lot different back than Bowser; while Bowser is a physical, punishing runner, Richardson is a lightning bug at 5'7" who reminds me a lot of former UCF Knight Adrian Killins Jr. It's an interesting matchup for UCF against a Florida defense that has had a brutal campaign, but has the talent to be much better than they've shown. Coordinator Todd Grantham was fired midseason before Dan Mullen's eventual demise, but the Gators have been playing with more energy as of late. If there is one spot where they should hold a clear advantage over UCF it's at the line of scrimmage, where they are loaded with future NFL guys.

Florida's offense has been very difficult to figure out this season. They've constantly switched between a pair of quarterbacks, Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson, and seem to be a different unit every week they step out on to the field. Jones has already announced his intention to transfer but is expected to not only play in this one, but start, as Richardson has been ruled out. Richardson is a massive loss for Florida; he's been their chief big-play threat all season and although he leaves something to be desired as a passer, he can heave the ball down the field. Jones is at least a dual threat who will give UCF some worry, but he's struggled against competent offenses all season. Beyond the quarterback questions, the Gators haven't been able to find much consistent weapons, either. Veteran Jacob Copeland is their top receiver and tight end Kemore Gamble is one of the best in the SEC, but there's not much beyond that. The ground game is split between Jones and a pair of backs, Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis, who are solid but don't exactly strike fear into opposing defenses. It's also unclear what UCF is going to see from the Florida O-Line; these blockers dominated Alabama in a near upset earlier in the year, but have been outplayed nearly every other week. They have the advantage over UCF in terms of star-rating, but will it show up on the field?

Even though this isn't a major bowl game, both teams should have ample motivation. UCF wants to prove themselves against one of the SEC "big boys" inside the state, while the Gators want to impress the new coaching staff. Florida seems to have an edge in terms of pure talent, but with Richardson out and so many other questions, the Knights seem like a much safer pick.

The Pick: UCF, 30 Florida, 23

Hawai'i Bowl (December 24)

Memphis Tigers (6-6) vs. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (6-7)

The Hawai'i Bowl on Christmas Eve is a college football tradition and it just feels right this season to see the Rainbow Warriors once again playing in the postseason in their home state. However, both programs enter this matchup on a serious slide, hoping to change their fortunes and build momentum for 2022.

Hawai'i has become synonymous with high-scoring offenses throughout the June Jones days and eventually on to Nick Rolovich, but that hasn't been the case under current head man Todd Graham. Their average of 28.8 PPG has been downright mediocre in 2021 and they just watched their starting QB, Chevan Cordeiro, transfer to San Jose State. Expect freshman Brayden Schager to get the start in this one, but the youngster has struggled to take care of the ball, with five interceptions on just 107 attempts. Schager is going to need a lot of help, particularly from names like Nick Mardner and Calvin Turner Jr. Mardner is a home run threat who averages nearly 20 yards per reception, while Turner is one of my favorite players in all of college football. He's the definition of do-it-all, as you'll see him catch passes, run out of the backfield, and who knows, maybe throw it. Will those two provide enough support for a young quarterback making a start in a bowl game? Memphis has been susceptible through the air all season and the defense is undergoing a transition, as coordinator Mike MacIntyre recently accepted the head coaching job at Florida International.

One of the most consistent programs in the AAC over the past half-decade, Memphis began 2021 3-0 before a rough stretch over their next nine. The offense has shown significant potential down the stretch and there's reason to believe it could be a real strength in 2022. Seth Henigan emerged from a crowded quarterback room to run the offense and he's put together a quality campaign, with 3,322 yards and 25 touchdowns. He's not the most accurate passer, but he plays with tremendous confidence and poise for his age and has a big arm. It helps that he has had a nice collection of pass-catchers to throw to, spearheaded by Calvin Austin III and tight end Sean Dykes. With that being said, Austin has already announced he will opt out of this game and focus on the NFL Draft, which could really limit what the Tigers are able to do. Expect names like Javon Ivory and Eddie Lewis to be the primary focus for the Rainbow Warrior defense, although Dykes should also present a challenge. Memphis is really hoping they can finally find a ground game that has been nonexistent for big chunks of the fall; Rodrigues Clark flashed a bunch of upside in 2020 but has been held in check all season, leaving Brandon Thomas to take over feature back duties. The Tigers are hopeful one of those two will be able to create plays, but Henigan is the obvious X-factor. He's going up against a Hawai'i pass defense allowing nearly 290 yards per game on the season.

Both of these teams enter the postseason at a crossroads; Hawai;i has been gutted by the transfer portal and the future under Todd Graham is in question. Memphis has slipped quickly under Ryan Silverfield after a run of success with Justin Fuente and Mike Norvell, but this team is better than their record may indicate. Even without Austin, the Tigers are the better team top to bottom.

The Pick: Memphis, 36 Hawai'i, 21

Camellia Bowl (December 25)

Georgia State Panthers (7-5) vs. Ball State Cardinals (6-6)

One year after winning the MAC, Ball State has been full of ups-and-downs in 2021, heading into the Camellia Bowl at 6-6. Their opponent will be the 7-5 Georgia State Panthers, who won six of their last seven to make another bowl game.

Despite having an extremely leaky defense, the Panthers have been able to finish the year strong because of an improving offense and clutch playmaking. Quarterback Darren Grainger has been rock-solid all season after winning the job over Cornelious Brown IV. Grainger won't throw a ton, but he's shown he can make the big throws necessary. However, the unquestioned strength of this entire Georgia State team is their rush offense, which is led by Granger, Tucker Gregg, and Jamyest Williams. Grainger is a true dual threat who notched over 500 yards with his legs, while Gregg and Williams are an imposing 1-2 punch. Gregg is more of your prototypical, power-running workhorse, while Williams is the game-breaker who is averaging nearly seven yards per rush. Williams began his career at South Carolina and has made the most out of his opportunity in the Sun Belt. Plus, he's finishing the year strong, with two straight 100-yard performances. The question is, can Ball State find a way to slow down this rushing attack? They've been decent against the run most of the season and have more size up front than a lot of Group of Five teams, but it will still be a difficulty.

Ball State has the talent to have a very effective offense, but it simply has not shown up in 2021. They've averaged just over 24 points per game this fall and reached the 20-point threshold just once during the month of September. They're playing better down the stretch and quarterback Drew Plitt gives them a fighting chance against a porous Georgia State secondary. Plitt, a senior, doesn't have the natural arm talent of others in the MAC but he's proven to be the type of steadying presence you need at the position. The question is whether the Cardinals can identify enough playmakers around him to move the ball; junior Jayshon Jackson, who came from Cincinnati, has been a weapon, but there's not a ton beyond him. Justin Hall finished just behind Jackson in most receiving categories, but he's been held in check over the last several weeks, meaning others will be forced to step up. The ground game has been decent this year, but has leaned nearly exclusively on freshman Carson Steele. Steele has generally been consistent in 2021 but is also coming off a quiet game, as he averaged under two yards per carry in the win over Buffalo.

Even though many might consider Ball State somewhat of a "one-hit wonder" after winning the MAC in 2020, I think this team is better than a 6-6 mark may indicate. However, Georgia State's recent play makes it hard to pick against them and their rush offense is. areal pain to stop. I think they wrap up 2021 winning seven of their final eight games.

The Pick: Georgia State, 27 Ball State, 18

Bowl Picks 2021-22: Myrtle Beach Bowl - Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 20 - Dec. 22)

 

Sincere McCormick, UTSA (Frisco Bowl)

Myrtle Beach Bowl (December 20)

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (6-6) vs. Old Dominion Monarchs (6-6)

Both Tulsa and Old Dominion began the 2021 campaign slow, but used strong finishes to work their way into the postseason. After beginning 1-6, Old Dominion won five straight to get to the Myrtle Beach Bowl, while Tulsa began 0-3 but won five of their last seven. The fact that both programs enter with so much momentum ensures we should have a fun one early in the week.

Tulsa leaned heavily on Zaven Collins and their stout defense in 2020, but the offense has stepped up this year. They have a primary trio that operate as their chief playmakers, with others able to step in and make things happen when needed. Quarterback Davis Brin has put up decent passing yardage on the season, but has struggled with a low completion percentage and a 16-16 TD-INT ratio. It hasn't helped that he has had to deal with an inconsistent offensive line and receiver corps, but the Golden Hurricane need more from him if they want to come out on top. Even so, the ground game could take center stage, even as they face an Old Dominion defense that has been strong against the run most of the season. Veteran Shamari Brooks has proven himself to be one of the American Athletic's most potent game-breakers, coming just short of three straight 1,000 yard seasons. He hasn't been able to rack up as many long runs in 2021 as in the past, but should still be featured heavily. Sophomore Anthony Watkins is the player to watch, as he is averaging 7.6 yards per carry and has proven himself against quality defenses on the year, going for over 100 yards against Cincinnati earlier on in the fall. It's unclear who Tulsa will look to against the Monarch secondary; Josh Johnson has been their top wide out all season long, but they'd really like another receiver or two to make things happpen.

After a brutal start to 2021, Old Dominion has figured things out offensively. The offensive success has coincided with the Monarchs switching things up at quarterback, moving on from former UCF transfer D.J. Mack Jr. to Hayden Wolff. Wolff hasn't put up gaudy numbers, but he's proven he can take care of the ball and make the right reads when necessary. Instead, Old Dominion also relies primarily on their rushing attack to move the ball, which has been dominant over the last several months. Sophomore Blake Watson has had a breakout campaign, totaling over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns. He'll pair with fellow sophomore Elijah Davis to create a fairly dangerous 1-2 combo. They're both averaging over five yards per rush and have been extremely consistent over the season's second half. As for the Monarch pass-catchers, they'll look to wide out Ali Jennings III and tight end Zack Kuntz. Kuntz in particular has been a real pain for opposing defenses; he followed his former coordinator, head coach Ricky Rahne, from Penn State to Old Dominon and has had a massive year, causing defenses real issues with his mix of size (6'8") and speed.

Two 6-6 teams without obvious strengths over the other should make for a quality football game. There's enough playmaking for there to be points on the board, although both defenses have also proven they can be stingy when necessary. Although Tulsa is a tougher opponent than most Old Dominion has seen this year, I still like the Monarchs. It's been a complete change for the entire team down the stretch in the way they've played and I figure they can keep it rolling into the postseason.

The Pick: Old Dominion, 24 Tulsa, 21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (December 21)

Wyoming Cowboys (6-6) vs. Kent State Golden Flashes (7-6)

Although its name gets a lot of chuckles, the fact of the matter is that the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl is usually pretty compelling postseason football. That should be the case again in 2021, as a pair of teams with opposing strengths should create a fun sixty minutes of football.

Kent State once again has one of the most explosive offenses in the Group of Five playing under head man Sean Lewis. They're particularly potent on the ground, where they have the nation's fourth-ranked rush offense, averaging 243.3 yards per game. The Golden Flashes not only have two backs who went over 800 yards on the season, but also a quarterback that has proven he can create with his legs, as Dustin Crum notched 633 yards and 11 touchdowns rushing the ball. His ability to extend plays and take chances should give the Wyoming defense some real pains, even though this is a group that has been traditionally strong under coach Craig Bohl. Crum's not a slouch through the air either; he doesn't have a huge arm but is accurate and effective, totaling 2,922 yards and 16 touchdowns. He has several weapons to work with through the air, including Dante Cephas and Syracuse transfer Nykeim Johnson. Cephas is your traditional, prototypical wide out who is fresh off a 100-yard performance against Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship, while Johnson is undersized, but a speedster. Up front, Kent State had real struggles on their offensive line early on, but they seem to have figured it out. That will be crucial against the Cowboys, who always play physical at the line of scrimmage.

In contrast to Kent State's explosive, up-tempo offense, Wyoming is all about defense and ball control, as they've always been under Bohl. They're going to pound and pound the ball with the occasional passing shot, typically off play action. Xazavian Valladay and Titus Swen have been their 1-2 punch in the backfield, with Valladay leading the way with 984 yards. Swen's proven to be a slightly more dangerous playmaker, notching nearly six yards a carry and leading the team with seven touchdowns on the ground. Those two will make things happen, but the fact of the matter is that the passing game has to show up against a high-scoring Kent State offense. Sean Chambers and Levi Williams have split time all-season, with Chambers gaining the slight edge in attempts. Both quarterbacks have proven they can run the ball and create, but they just haven't done much through the air. Chambers has more passing yardage but has struggled with turnovers, while Williams has a stronger arm. Wyoming leans heavily on wide out Isaiah Neyor on the perimeter, but the Golden Flashes don't much to fear beyond him. Valladay is a great receiver out of the backfield and Wyoming features tight ends frequently, but there just hasn't been much consistency there beyond Neyor.

It's the classic battle between a high-scoring offense and tough, physical defense that makes bowl season so intriguing. The Cowboys are always a tough foe because they play so hard for the entire sixty minutes, but Kent State might just have too many weapons to contain. Crum is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and there's enough elsewhere to put the Golden Flashes over the top.

The Pick: Kent State, 34 Wyoming, 20

Frisco Bowl (December 21)

UTSA Roadrunners (12-1) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (11-2)

Two teams that came just short of undefeated seasons and potential New Year's Six Bowls (if not for Cincinnati's success) square off in Frisco here. Much like Wyoming-Kent State, these two programs have varying strengths that should create interesting matchups. UTSA has a potent offense spearheaded by one of the nation's best tailbacks in Sincere McCormick, while San Diego State has a tough defense that is particularly strong against the run.

After going for 1,467 yards in 2020, McCormick has put on an even greater encore this fall, with 1,479 yards and 15 touchdowns. He's put up monster numbers against multiple teams on the year, fresh off a 204-yard, three touchdown performance against Western Kentucky in the C-USA Championship Game. It's going to be fascinating to see whether he can keep it up against this San Diego State rush defense, which allows less than 78 yards per game. McCormick has had success even against tough defenses, but the Aztecs have terrific linebackers and fill gaps as well as anybody in the country. The Roadrunners will still run the ball, but they could turn to QB Frank Harris more for this game. Harris has been the type of steadying presence at quarterback that every program would love have; he has thrown for 2,906 yards and 25 touchdowns, with a 66% completion percentage. He is also a dual threat who should put the Aztec linebackers in a much more difficult spot than they are used to. On the outside, UTSA has a trio of receivers that should be able to make things happen in Zakhari Franklin, Joshua Cephus, and De'Corian Clark. Franklin has been their most consistent, but Clark is the type of big-play threat that always seem to show up in bowl games.

The Aztecs have an elite defense, but they absolutely need their offense to still show up. They also lean on their ground game, even though they don't have a superstar like McCormick. Greg Bell has been their workhorse all season long, coming up just short of 1,000 yards on the year. He has hit 220 attempts on the season and has a blend of speed and power that could cause even the most experienced defenses issues. With that being said, the rest of the offense hasn't been able to put up the consistent numbers necessary to help San Diego State get truly over the top. Quarterback Lucas Johnson came over from Georgia Tech and has played in an offense quite different than the one where he came from. He's been serviceable, but don't be surprised if senior Jordon Brookshire continues to see more playing time. He saw action in both the Boise State and Mountain West Championship loss and it wouldn't be surprising if SDSU uses both signal-callers. As for the receivers, it's been an interesting blend over the course of the fall. When the Aztecs have chosen to throw the ball, they've had success but there hasn't been one true, signature star. Jesse Matthews is their top weapon and leader in nearly every receiving category, but also keep an eye on tight end Daniel Bellinger and Tyrell Shavers, who originally began his career in the SEC.

These two programs have had successful seasons, but they're coming off two very different championship games. UTSA scored 49 points and overcame a very difficult and fun Western Kentucky team, taking home their first C-USA Title in school history. San Diego State on the other hand had their worst defensive showing of the year, as they were pummeled by Utah State. I've long thought the Aztecs deserve a lot of credit for their 11-2 season, but I'm not quite sure if their record indicates the quality of team they have. They could be in store for a really rough showing, even if they are able to slow down McCormick, as Harris and company can push the Roadrunners over the top.

The Pick: UTSA, 30 San Diego State, 17

Armed Forces Bowl (December 22)

Missouri Tigers (6-6) vs. Army Black Knights (8-4)

It's always a fascinating watch to see triple-option teams go up against Power Five opponents, and this Armed Forces Bowl should be no different. It's a vintage Army team that actually has shown they're willing to throw more than past Black Knight teams, while Missouri had an up-and-down year but beat South Carolina and Florida down the stretch to make a postseason berth in the second season of Eli Drinkwitz.

For Missouri's offense, it's all about tailback Tyler Badie, who was a Doak Walker Award finalist after totaling nearly 2,000 yards of total offense and 18 scores in 2021. Badie's a chore for opposing defenses to take down; he's lightning quick and extremely elusive, but is also a patient runner with good vision. The fact that he's such a good receiver out of the backfield also gives defenses reason to worry, as he's gone over 300 yards receiving three consecutive years. He's obviously the focal point of the offense, but Missouri is hoping for more from QB Connor Bazelak and the passing game. Bazelak had an impressive 2020 but hasn't quite built on that in 2021, dealing with turnovers and accuracy issues that weren't there a season ago. His group of receivers to throw to is short on big names, but Tauskie Dove and Keke Chism have proven they can make the occasional big play and Badie coming out of the backfield is always a factor. As for the line of scrimmage, I'm curious to see the chess match between these two. Missouri has the size advantage up front and SEC athletes are a different breed, but Army has never shied away from anyone. They play incredibly hard and are very creative in getting pressure and extra run support where it's needed.

The Missouri defense has been their Achilles Heel on the season, allowing nearly 35 points per game. They have athletes, but the consistency has not been there this fall and they haven't defend the run or pass very effectively. Even though the defense has now spent several weeks preparing for the triple-option, it is always tough to stop in the heat of the game and the Army option has been on fire in 2021. Despite the fact the Black Knights run an offense specifically designed to bleed the clock and slow down the game, they're averaging nearly 33 points per game. Of course, the way the offense is designed it doesn't lean too much on one or two characters, but instead the entire O-Line and backfield working simultaneously. Quarterback Christian Anderson has had an impressive campaign and has proven he can throw the ball, while tailback Tyrell Robinson led the team with 603 rushing yards. Also sure to see plenty of action is powerful fullback Jakobi Buchanan and Anthony Adkins. Buchanan is a beast in the short-yardage who runs about as hard as any rusher you will see in college football this year, while Adkins can bring much-needed explosiveness. Of course, the receivers won't get too much attention but playing at a program like Army, they're all good blockers and extremely unselfish in getting the offense where it needs to go.

I'm always conflicted when it comes to these types of games. On one hand, the triple-option is always incredibly hard to play against and this Army team has been running it well all season. On the other, Missouri has a clear edge in talent and will be one of the toughest teams the Black Knights have seen all year. I would seriously consider Army here, but I'm actually going with the Tigers in what is technically an upset, at least according to Vegas. This is a flawed Mizzou team in a lot of ways, but Badie helps put them over the top in this one.

The Pick: Missouri, 20 Army, 14

Bowl Picks 2021-22: Bahamas Bowl to New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 17-18)

 

Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky (Boca Raton Bowl)

Bahamas Bowl (December 17)

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (6-6) vs. Toledo Rockets (7-5)

The 2021-22 bowl season kicks off in the Bahamas, as a pair of Group of Five foes go toe-to-toe. Toledo has asserted themselves as one of the true powers of the MAC and pushed Notre Dame to the brink earlier this fall, but they'll get a tough game from Middle Tennessee, who started off 1-3 but closed out strong.

Middle Tennessee will rely heavily on their defense, but their offense is an interesting watch. Like any college football team at this stage of the season, they've dealt with injuries, but it's still fairly shocking to see just how much of their depth chart has seen action in 2021. Quarterback duties have been split four different ways, including Chase Cunningham, Nick Vattiato, Bailey Hockman, and Mike DiLello. Vattiato has seen most of the snaps down the stretch and the freshman has upside. He is supported by several former Power Five transfers, including West Virginia transplant Martell Pettaway, who has been their most consistent weapon on the ground. The aerial attack doesn't have one primary star, but the combo of Yusuf Ali and Jimmy Marshall. I am curious to see how Vattiato and the entire Blue Raider offense looks after several weeks off. It's a group that doesn't jump out at you, but they've been productive enough to get Middle Tennessee to a bowl. Facing a Toledo defense that is probably the best they've seen all year, especially against the run, will be a stiff challenge.

Toledo looked like the MAC favorite after falling just short against Notre Dame, but they had a tough September and October before putting it together over the final month. The offense has shown drastic improvements over the last few weeks, thanks in large part to youngster Dequan Finn taking hold of the QB job. Despite being young, Finn has shown impressive ball control and patience, which should bode well for him as he faces an experienced Blue Raider secondary. Finn's play has been crucial, but there's little question who the star of the offense is: tailback Bryant Koback. He totaled 1,274 yards and 15 touchdowns on the season and has been particularly potent as of late, going for over 200 yards in the win over Ohio.

Middle Tennessee has one of the best defenders in C-USA in Reed Blankenship, but I'm not sure the rest of the defense will be up to the challenge of Koback and company. Just getting back to a bowl after a down 2020 was huge for head coach Rick Stockstill, but Toledo is the more balanced team and ultimately, the smarter pick.

The Pick: Toledo, 30 Middle Tennessee, 20

Cure Bowl (December 17)

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (10-2) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (9-4)

While they weren't quite able to replicate the magic of the 2020 season, Coastal Carolina still had an awfully productive fall, going 10-2 on the season. They hope to take home a Cure Bowl victory here after losing in this matchup last winter, but don't have an easy foe, as Northern Illinois is fresh off a MAC Title.

The Huskies play a physical brand of football that relies on a ferocious offensive line and a workhorse back in Jay Ducker. Ducker took over as feature back after the injury to Harrison Waylee and has not looked back, finishing with 1,038 yards and three touchdowns on the season. He plays larger than his 185-pound frame but has quite a bit of wiggle to him, which should challenge a gifted Coastal Carolina defense. Waylee has not played since early October, but there's apparently still a chance he could see some action in this game, albeit limited. At quarterback, Michigan State transfer Rocky Lombardi has been decent, but has to take better care of the football. His completion numbers aren't great, nor is his 13-8 TD-INT ratio, and the Chanticleers have a hungry, ball-hawking secondary that feeds off turnovers. If they give Coastal even more opportunities offensively, they'll be facing an uphill climb.

Coastal Carolina's offense hasn't been quite as magical this fall as in 2020, but they're still a joy to watch. They run a unique triple-option offense that is able to get their athletes out in space and challenge defenses in a variety of ways. However, the offense has lost some of its luster due to injuries, primarily to star QB Grayson McCall. McCall originally got hurt in their win over Troy in late October and the team feared he would be lost for the season. However, he ended up returning for their final two games, and just happened to go for five touchdowns against Texas State. He's still not at 100 percent, but even an unhealthy McCall is a real problem for defenses. It's not just what he does on the field, but how the entire Chanticleer team feeds off his energy and attitude. The rest of the offense also has several weapons that should challenge Northern Illinois, including a three-headed monster in the backfield in Shermari Jones, Braydon Bennett, and Reese White, plus two potential NFL guys on the perimeter in Javon Heiligh and Isaiah Likely. Outside of McCall, Likely is the player defensive coordinator Derrick Jackson has to be the most concerned about. He moves amazingly well for somebody who is 6'4", 240 pounds, and he's an absolute demon in the red zone. I'm not sure the Huskies will have any answers against him unless Jackson is able to come up with something awfully creative in a few weeks time.

Coastal might not have reached the heights of 2020 this fall, but it was still a nice encore from Jamey Chadwell and the entire program. They could still complete a goal that they were unable to do a season ago: win a bowl game. NIU is a difficult foe that plays all four quarters hard, but they don't have the explosiveness of Coastal offensively, which will cause them to come up short.

The Pick: Coastal Carolina, 38 Northern Illinois, 24

Boca Raton Bowl (December 18)

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-3)

If you're looking for a fun, fast-paced early bowl game, look no further than the Boca Raton Bowl. It pits one of the Group of Five's top programs, Appalachian State, against a Western Kentucky team that puts up points in a hurry.

The Mountaineers continue to be a model of consistency, as they've now won at least nine games every single year since 2014. This particular group is incredibly balanced on both sides of the ball, with an effective offense and well-coached defense. At QB, Chase Brice has had a redemptive campaign after a frustrating season with Duke in 2020, but turnovers continue to be a problem. He can't give Western Kentucky's explosive offense any more chances than they have originally, which could motivate Appalachian State to lean on the ground in this one. It helps that the Mountaineers have a dangerous 1-2 punch in the backfield in Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples. Peoples entered the year as the feature back, but Noel has quickly emerged as the offense's most lethal weapon. He'll operate as their top option in normal offensive sets, where he can change the game in a hurry, while Peoples will be their goal-line and short yardage option. It's going to be a tough matchup for a Hilltopper defense that has struggled for most of the season and has been consistently gashed through the air. Of course, WKU's defense is also on the field significantly more than the average group, which has to be considered when looking at their numbers.

After a frustrating 2020, WKU head coach Tyson Helton made an interesting series of moves over the off-season. He decided to break into the FCS ranks and bring in a new OC, Zack Kittley, as well as a new QB, Bailey Zappe. Those decisions have ended up working out extremely well for Helton and the Hilltoppers, who are averaging over 43 points per game. Zappe in particular has been an absolute joy to watch; the fearless veteran signal-caller has a rocket of an arm, and has used it to come within striking distance of the single-season touchdown record. Zappe currently sits at 56 and has a real shot to break Joe Burrow's mark set back during the magical 2019 campaign. He's helped out by a familiar receiver in Jerreth Sterns, who also joined Zappe and Kittley in coming over from Houston Baptist. Sterns has put up monster numbers himself this fall, with 137 catches for 1,718 yards, but faces a Mountaineer secondary with a lot of experience ready to shut him down. Junior Mitchell Tinsley has had a breakout season in 2021 and offers an extremely effective complementary piece who Zappe may look towards often in this one, assuming App. State focuses their resources in on Sterns.

Western Kentucky has been a great story and Helton deserves a ton of credit for the decision to bring in all the Houston Baptist transplants. With that being said, Appalachian State is the better overall team, and one of the most talented Group of Five teams in the country. As long as Brice doesn't force anything and plays within himself, App. State seems like a good bet.

The Pick: Appalachian State, 40 Western Kentucky, 35

New Mexico Bowl (December 18)

UTEP Miners (7-5) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3)

After years of being the cellar dweller in the C-USA, UTEP put together an impressive 2021 regular season, winning seven games and making their first postseason trip since 2014. They square off against a Fresno State team in transition, with head coach Kalen DeBoer taking the head coaching job at Washington.

Offensively, UTEP doesn't put up huge numbers and has struggled down the stretch. They still have an aerial attack that can make plays when needed, but they need quarterback Gavin Hardison to get back on track. Hardison is an aggressive player who has had to deal with a struggling offensive line, but has also taken too many chances when the offense can't find any rhythm. He has a superstar to help him out in the perimeter in Jacob Cowing, but you'd like to see the Miners figure out their ground game after a slow few weeks. Tailback Ronald Awatt has had a productive season overall, but has struggled against some of the top defenses UTEP has seen this fall. He's fresh off a quiet day against UAB, when he carried the ball just five times for 13 yards for an offense that has behind the sticks the entire way. Additionally, the offensive line has to figure things out after a rough final month. Fresno State has an athletic defensive front that plays a relentless brand of football; they'll come after Hardison early and often.

It's been a whirlwind of a few weeks for Fresno State, with head coach Kalen DeBoer and star quarterback Jake Haener originally pledging to join him before taking his name out of the transfer portal when news of Jeff Tedford's hire became apparent. Tedford, who has a long relationship with the program, is set to take over following the bowl game, with RB coach Lee Marks acting as the current interim coach. Haener's return is massive for Fresno for 2022, but interestingly, it's unclear whether he will start on Saturday. Marks has made no official comment on Haener's status and there remains a chance freshmen Jaylen Henderson or Logan Fife could make their first career start. Even if that's the case, the Bulldogs have a proven commodity in the backfield in veteran Ronnie Rivers. Rivers sits second all-time in the Fresno rushing record book, but he's had a quieter season than most expected. The UTEP rush defense is rock-solid, but I still wouldn't be shocked if this is a chance for Rivers to have a grand finale. Wide out Jalen Cropper also gives the Miners a reason to worry defensively, even though the pass defense has also been fairly strong for most of the year.

Even as they embark on a transition moving on from DeBoer and with Haener's status uncertain, Fresno State seems like the better pick in this game. For one, they have an offense loaded with talent that should be able to produce, even if Haener doesn't play. Just as importantly, UTEP has been going in the wrong direction for the past month-and-a-half. Perhaps a few weeks to get back on track is what they needed, but the Bulldogs are one of the most talented teams they will have seen this fall.

The Pick: Fresno State, 31 UTEP, 21

Independence Bowl (December 18)

UAB Blazers (8-4) vs. BYU Cougars (10-2)

BYU was expected to take a massive step back in 2021 after losing QB Zach Wilson to the NFL and OC Jeff Grimes to Baylor. Instead, the Cougars put together another double-digit win campaign under Kalani Sitake, which included five victories over Power Five foes, including eventual Pac-12 Champ Utah. It's been a great year for Sitake and the Cougars, but UAB offers a real challenge in the Independence Bowl.

Since coming from a two-year hiatus, UAB has been the power program in the Conference USA. Although close losses to UTSA and Rice kept them out of the C-USA Championship Game, they once again proved that they were a tough out en route to an 8-4 mark. They continue to produce some of the best Group of Five tailbacks in the nation, with sophomore DeWayne McBride the latest in line. McBride has been beat up down the stretch but has still been productive, including going for 144 against UTSA several weeks ago. The larger question for the offense is not McBride's health, but the play of quarterback Dylan Hopkins. Hopkins was expected to be a backup this year, but a season-ending injury to Tyler Johnston III forced the Blazers to turn to Hopkins. He's been very impressive for a backup forced into the starting role, but consistency has been a problem. Hopkins is playing well down the stretch, but faces a major challenge against the Cougars. This has long been a physical program that is extremely disciplined with what they do on the defensive side of the ball. They will force UAB to play uncomfortable for the entire sixty minutes, which should certainly test what this team is made of.

BYU hasn't had quite as explosive of an offense as they did in 2020, but they're significantly more balanced. Tailback Tyler Allgeier has quietly had one of the most impressive seasons of any back in the country this season. He's totaled 1,414 yards and 20 touchdowns on the season and had a primetime performance when he went for 266 and five scores against Virginia. The Cougars will obviously rely on him, but the passing game can still open things up too. Jaren Hall might not be Zach Wilson, but he's been awfully reliable and doesn't turn the ball over. At times, Hall has struggled with his consistency and efficiency but he's regularly showed up in the biggest games and won't shy away in this one. It also helps that BYU has one of the nation's most underrated receiver corps, headlined by the trio of Puka Nacua, Neil Pau'u, and Gunner Romney. It's not an aerial attack that will take a ton of chances deep, but that trio has proven they can consistently make things happen after the catch. 

Even though the Cougars have beaten numerous Power Five programs on the year, UAB might end up being one of their tougher challenges. This is a well-coached team that has proven they can consistently battle through adversity. They'll give BYU a game, but I'm not sure if they have an answer to all the weapons the Cougar offense can throw at you. Beyond Allgeier, Hall and the trio of weapons, plus a quality O-Line, should put them over the top.

The Pick: BYU, 28 UAB, 23

LendingTree Bowl (December 18)

Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5) vs. Liberty Flames (7-5)

After not playing in a single bowl game from 1987-2015, Eastern Michigan is playing in their fourth since the 2016 season. They hope to finish the year strong against a Liberty team that has slightly disappointed, but still has one of the game's most exciting players in QB Malik Willis.

The key for Eastern Michigan will undoubtedly be slowing down Willis, who is looking to have one more big performance before taking his talents to the NFL. Willis hasn't been quite as dominant in 2021 as last year, as he has been forced to shoulder more of the offensive responsibilities this fall. He's seen slight dips in his completion percentage and has thrown more interceptions, but still offers loads of problems for opposing defenses with his speed and huge arm. It would be helpful if Liberty could get more production elsewhere on the offense, particularly a ground game that has been nearly nonexistent beyond Willis. Veteran Joshua Mack had two straight seasons rushing for over 700 yards, but has been held in check all year, averaging just four yards per carry. Former Utah transfer T.J. Green is the more explosive option in the backfield that could challenge this EMU defense, but he's been unable to make a super consistent impact all season. It doesn't help that the Eagles have one of the best rush defenses in the Group of Five this year and will be ready to stack the box against Willis.

Eastern Michigan doesn't have a star like Willis on their offense, but has nice balance throughout the roster. Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant has been rock-solid at quarterback, finishing the regular season with 2,921 yards and 14 touchdowns. Bryant doesn't have a crazy huge arm, but he's a consistent, accurate signal-caller who puts the team in position to win. The rush offense operates in much the same way; it won't dial up many big plays, but has been an efficient group. At receiver, EMU has primarily relied on a pair of pass-catchers to move the ball in Hassan Beydoun and Dylan Drummond, but I'm curious to see how they choose to attack the Liberty secondary. It's a deep and experienced defensive backfield that has put up strong numbers this season, but there's not much size. We've seen Eastern Michigan feature their tight ends quite a bit in 2021 and I suspect we'll see a lot of two tight end sets to maximize matchup problems.

It's a tough matchup choosing between these two 7-5 teams. I think Eastern Michigan is the better all-around team this year, but Liberty has Willis and the defense has generally been a quality group for most of the campaign. I lean the Flames here, a team that was in my preseason Top 25 but hasn't quite lived up to those expectations. Finishing off a solid EMU in the bowl game to finish 8-5 might not be exactly what they imagined, but is still a good consolation.

The Pick: Liberty, 27 Eastern Michigan, 20

LA Bowl (December 18)

Utah State Aggies (10-3) vs. Oregon State Beavers (7-5)

Another underrated bowl game early on in the postseason, don't let the inaugural "LA Bowl" get lost in the shuffle. This game features two teams that had very surprising 2021 seasons; Utah State completely turned things around in 2021 and won the Mountain West under new head man Blake Anderson, while Oregon State was a factor in the Pac-12 North race and is playing in their first bowl since 2013.

Utah State has one of the nation's most exciting passing attacks, as Logan Bonner followed Anderson to Logan and has put together a tremendous season. He notched 3,560 yards and 36 touchdowns through the air and was fairly efficient, despite throwing the ball so much. He is helped by a quality receiver corps that includes superstar Deven Thompkins, as well as several other contributors. The rush offense has taken a backseat all year, for good reason, but don't underestimate Calvin Tyler Jr. Although he has slowed down in the season's second half after a great start, he's still going to be a factor. Tyler may also have extra motivation in this one, as he's playing his former team. The Aggie offense has proven to be difficult to stop all year and has done it against strong defenses, fresh off a beatdown of San Diego State. They match up extremely well against an Oregon State defense that has not had a good year. The Beavers are physical up front and will apply pressure, but the pass defense has been suspect all season. Additionally, they've been terrible on third downs, which puts them in a precarious position against the Aggies.

The Beavers are nearly the complete opposite offensively, instead leaning on their ground game. Tailback B.J. Baylor has had a monster season, finishing with over 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns. He's had good luck against Mountain West teams on the year, as he ran all over Hawai'i earlier on in this fall. Fellow backs Deshaun Fenwick and Trey Lowe offer nice change-of-pace options as well, even if they won't see a heavy dosage of action here. Quarterback Chance Nolan beat out Sam Noyer and Tristan Gebbia in camp and has been a steady quarterback, if rather unexciting. He's put up decent numbers and has been fairly efficient, but isn't the type of QB that will help push an offense over the top, especially considering the Beavers aren't exactly loaded at receiver. I am curious to see whether Oregon State chooses to throw more often in this game than usual. Utah State has been very strong against the run all year long, but the pass defense has been merely okay. I don't expect Nolan to be slinging the ball 40-50 times, but the Beavers could choose to be slightly more aggressive.

There's some form of bragging rights on the line, as the Mountain West is always looking to prove itself against the Pac-12. Oregon State has been a great story and has a quality team, but I like the Aggies, who are a touchdown underdog. Their strengths perfectly align with Oregon State's weaknesses, and the culture and attitude Anderson has quickly built should help put them over the top.

The Pick: Utah State, 42 Oregon State, 31

New Orleans Bowl (December 18)

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (12-1) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (7-5)

Following a season-opening loss to Texas, Louisiana has won 12 straight and enters bowl season raging hot. However, they will play in the New Orleans Bowl without head man Billy Napier, who coached his last game in the Sun Belt Championship before heading to Florida, while facing a Marshall team with a dangerous offense.

The Ragin' Cajuns have a fairly balanced offensive attack, with veteran Levi Lewis at QB and a deep group of tailbacks. Lewis has put together an impressive final season in Lafayette, with 2,647 yards and 19 touchdowns through the air, compared to just four interceptions. He's also a capable runner, which has proven to give defenses fits for much of his career. The Cajuns feature a trio of backs with varying strengths in Chris Smith, Montrell Johnson, and Emani Bailey. Smith is the every-down workhorse, Johnson is the short-yardage and goal-line option, and Bailey is the big-play threat. The luxury of having three quality backs has allowed ULL to ground down opponents, particularly in the second half of games. Even though Marshall has been a tough team with a fairly stingy defense, they'll look to do much the same here. As for the receivers, it's a group without a clear star, but several options that should test the Thundering Herd. Peter LeBlanc is the leading receiver, but Michael Jefferson and Kyren Lacy are the big-play, "home run" threats. Don't expect Lewis to take a lot of shots downfield, but he'll look to stretch Marshall occasionally to open up the ground game underneath.

Marshall has been bombing it all over the field offensively in 2021, reminiscent of the Rakeem Cato days. They currently have the 12th-ranked pass offense nationally and have not been afraid to take their chances down the field. Second-year signal-caller Grant Wells has put up lofty yardage numbers and has improved his completion percentage, but a 16-12 TD-INT ratio leaves something to be desired. With how much the Herd throw it's not surprising to see the turnover numbers be somewhat high, but he won't be able to get away with much against the Cajuns. Wells has plenty of options to work with in the passing game, with a wide variety of skill sets. Corey Gammage has been his most consistent target on the perimeter, but tight end Xavier Gaines is one of the nation's best at his position and operates as the security blanket for the offense. Rasheen Ali leads a ground attack that often gets overshadowed by the passing game, but he ran for over 1,200 yards this year and is a touchdown machine, tallying 20. Ali is also an excellent receiver out of the backfield, which could give Louisiana some difficulties. In general though, this Cajun defense has been stout all season, with the only real exception being that performance against Texas. There may be some growing pains as they move forward without coordinator Patrick Toney, who followed Napier to Gainesville. Even so, this is a defense with a lot of experience and has the type of athletes who often don't see at Sun Belt schools.

Louisiana enters this game as the better team and has all the momentum, but I'll be curious if not having Napier and several other pieces from the former staff comes back to bite them. It may be a factor, but this roster is too deep and experienced to go out with a loss, even to a potentially dangerous team like Marshall.

The Pick: Louisiana, 38 Marshall, 31

College Football Season Awards 2021

Jameson Williams, Alabama

After the abbreviated and strange 2020 college football season, this fall was able to provide fans with not only a sense of normalcy, but one of the most exciting campaigns in recent memory. The "Goliaths" of the sport were the most vulnerable they'd been in years, there were major upsets nearly every weekend, and the regular season concluded with two programs making their first CFB Playoff appearances, one of them being a Group of Five program. In celebration of such a special season, it's time to present my annual college football awards, recognizing the players and coaches that highlighted the 2021 season.

Official 

Heisman: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

In a season where no one player was able to grab ahold of the Heisman conversation for most of the year, Bryce Young's flaming hot finish to the season likely earns him the prestigious award. Over the last three games of the season, against three strong defenses and one considered historically dominant (Georgia), Young went over 300 yards in each game and a 10-1 TD-INT ratio. At points during the year, he was the sole source of offense for the Tide, managing to keep them afloat despite several close calls against LSU, Florida, Arkansas, and Auburn. He finishes with a stat-line of 4,322 yards and 43 touchdowns through the air, while also going for three scores on the ground. It was an awfully impressive showing for a first-year starter working with a brand new offensive coordinator, and now Young leads the top-ranked Tide into a Playoff in which they are once again the prohibitive favorites.

(full Top 10)

2. C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

3. Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

4. Aiden Hutchinson, DE, Michigan

5. Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State

6. Will Anderson Jr., LB, Alabama

7. Bailey Zappe, QB, Western Kentucky

8. Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

9. Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

10. Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Doak Walker: Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State

Kenneth Walker III is a great example of just how unpredictable college football can be. He was a productive player in two seasons at Wake Forest, totaling just over 1,000 yards and 17 touchdowns, but split carries and was far from a true game-changer. Walker then decides to take a chance and transfer to Michigan State, where he puts up one of the most impressive single seasons in school history. He finishes with 1,636 yards and 18 touchdowns on the year, putting together his best performance in the Spartan win over arch-rival Michigan. It's not just the numbers in general that are impressive when it comes to Walker, but the consistency. He ran for over 100 yards on eight separate occasions during the regular season, and one of the few games he didn't, against Youngtown State, was only because he was played from the game early on.

(finalists)

2. Tyler Badie, RB, Missouri

3. Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

Biletnikoff Award: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Alabama continues their run of insane wide receiver production, going back all the way back to Julio Jones. The latest in line, Jameson Williams, came over from Ohio State and put together a masterful season, totaling 68 catches, 1,445 yards, and 15 touchdowns. Much like Young, Williams put together his best performance at the right time, as he had seven catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns against the vaunted Georgia pass defense. Williams should become the fourth Alabama wide out to take home the Biletnikoff Award in the past decade, joining Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and DeVonta Smith.

(finalists)

2. David Bell, WR, Purdue

3. Jordan Addison, WR, Pittsburgh

John Mackey: Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State

Even as Colorado State slid to a 3-9 record that would lead to head coach Steve Addazio's firing, tight end Trey McBridge put together an All-American season. The senior was a machine in 2021, leading all tight ends with 90 receptions on the year and 1,121 yards. He had a couple splashy games on the year, with six games of over 100 yards and a debut game of 13 catches against South Dakota State. McBride, who began the year as a fringe NFL Draft selection, will now likely move into the middle rounds as a potential steal.

(finalists)

2. Charlie Kolar, TE, Iowa State

3. Jalen Wydermyer, TE, Texas A&M

Rimington: Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa

My preseason Rimington Trophy award winner, Tyler Linderbaum has been everything Iowa had hoped he would be in 2021. After finishing as a Rimington finalist and All-American in the shortened 2020 season, Linderbaum has built on that with a dominant 2021 campaign. He not only controlled the line of scrimmage all season for the physical Hawkeye offense, he demonstrated impressive athleticism and durability for his position. Linderbaum has already taken home Big Ten Linemen of the Year honors, and it seems like he will be adding to that trophy case this month before eventually becoming a first-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft.

(finalists)

2. Alec Lindstrom, Boston College

3. Olusegun Oluwatimi, Virginia

Jim Thorpe: Verone McKinley III, Oregon

Although Oregon's struggles late in the season overshadow what was an otherwise successful season, they still have several players that should take home high honors, most notably safety Verone McKinley III. McKinley had already established himself as a quality defensive back prior to 2021, but he's really had a breakout this fall. He led FBS with six interceptions, constantly finding a way to jump passing routes and displaying top-notch ball skills. McKinley was also a factor in a rush defense that was strong for most of the season, as he put up a career-high 71 total tackles. In a year where there was not a true dominant defensive back, McKinley should take home the Jim Thorpe with ease.

(finalists)

2. Jalen Pitre, Baylor

3. Coby Bryant, Cincinnati

Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, Michigan

It's amazing just how quickly things can change in a year. At this time in 2020, the conversation around Jim Harbaugh was all about his job security and whether he'd return to Ann Arbor in 2021. 365 days later, Harbaugh has led Michigan to their first win over Ohio State since 2011, their first Big Ten Title since they shared it with Iowa in 2004, and the program's first-ever CFB Playoff appearance. The entire team obviously deserves a ton of credit for what they've done this fall, but Harbaugh in particular. Following 2020, he completely gutted his defensive staff and went forward with an unproven defensive coordinator in Mike MacDonald, which has turned out to be a fantastic hire. Harbaugh also decided to stick with Josh Gattis as OC after two uneven years; Gattis just recently took home the Broyles Award as the country's top assistant. I've long said that Harbaugh deserves much more credit for the work he's done at Ann Arbor and this is the type of revenge season UM fans have hoped for. No matter what happens in their Playoff game against Georgia, it was a miraculous performance from the Wolverines this fall.

2. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State

3. Mel Tucker, Michigan State

Unofficial

Breakout Player of the Year: Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State

There were plenty of running backs that hit the transfer portal over the off-season, but there wasn't one that made the impact of Kenneth Walker III. It wasn't just the stat-line, but the energy and attitude that he brought to a program that was coming off a quiet 2020 season. He was unquestionably the MVP of the team and his importance to the program gives them the edge over several others that could have taken home the award. One quick note: Houston corner Marcus Jones would have taken home the award after totaling four returns in 2021, if not for how effective he already was back in 2020.

2. Brennan Armstrong, QB, Virginia

3. David Ojabo, DL, Michigan

4. Sean Tucker, RB, Syracuse

5. Marcus Jones, CB, Houston

Transfer of the Year: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

If you want a reminder of just how stacked Ohio State's receiver room was this season, consider the case of Jameson Williams. Williams had his moments during his two seasons in Columbus, including tallying 154 yards and two touchdowns in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but clearly felt that he wasn't going to see the targets he needed behind Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, plus rising young star Jaxon Smith-Njigba. So, Williams decided to head south and join Alabama, putting together a Biletnikoff quality season playing with future Heisman winner Bryce Young. It's rare to see a player go from one blue blood to the other and have so much success, but Williams is a special case. 

2. Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State

3. Bailey Zappe, QB, Western Kentucky

Group of Five Heisman: Bailey Zappe, QB, Western Kentucky

Big things were expected of Bailey Zappe after coming to Western Kentucky from Houston Baptist, where he threw for 73 touchdowns in three seasons. However, I don't think even the most optimistic Hilltopper fan anticipated Zappe having this time of season. Through 13 games, he has 5,545 yards and 56 touchdowns, putting him in spitting distance of the single-season record set by Joe Burrow back in 2019. His entire stat-line is boggling; he's had 639 attempts on the year, averaging out to over 49 throws per game, but still completes passes at an extremely respectable 69% clip. Even if he isn't able to break Burrow's record in the bowl game, Zappe deserves a ton of credit for not only his individual season, but helping lead WKU to a C-USA Championship Game appearance.

2. Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

3. Sincere McCormick, RB, UTSA

4. Lew Nichols III, RB, Central Michigan

Hire of the Year (coordinator or HC): Jeff Grimes, OC, Baylor

There are a wide variety of options for this unofficial award, but I'm going slightly out of left field with Jeff Grimes from Baylor. Grimes was the coordinator for the record-setting BYU offense of 2020 and parlayed that success into the same position at Baylor. Despite operating a group that was short on big-name stars, the numbers speak for themselves when it comes to Grimes' role on the team. After averaging 23.3 PPG and 310.2 yards per game, the Bears bumped those numbers to 32.5 PPG and 430.9 YPG en route to their first Big 12 Title since 2014. Dave Aranda deserves a ton of credit for his decision to move on from former OC Larry Fedora after just one year and bring in Grimes, who will soon be a serious candidate for head coaching vacancies, if he isn't already.

2. Blake Anderson, HC, Utah State

3. Mike MacDonald, DC, Michigan

4. Zach Kittley, OC, Western Kentucky

5. Josh Heupel, HC, Tennessee

College Football Picks 2021: Week Fourteen (Championship Week)

Stetson Bennett, Georgia

Current Picks Record: 77-40

Upset: 6-7

Superdogs: 7-6

SEC Championship: (#1) Georgia Bulldogs vs. (#3) Alabama Crimson Tide

Georgia has put together one of the best seasons in program history and are one victory away from their first SEC Title since 2017. The only thing that stands in their way? The program that has had their number over the course of the last decade-and-a-half, the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Bulldogs enter the game as a touchdown favorite, but can they finally get the monkey off their back and beat Nick Saban?

While their defense may get the attention (and for good reason), Georgia's offense has been no slouch. They're averaging nearly 41 points per game and have an abundance of weapons that can hurt you. The rushing attack is the obvious strength, as the Bulldogs can lean on four different options in Zamir White, James Cook, Kendall Milton, and Kenny McIntosh. Milton hasn't played since mid-October, but is listed as questionable for this game and has returned to practice, which could add another element to this Georgia offense. In fact, this entire UGA offense has been beat up all season long. Quarterback J.T. Daniels began the year as the starter, but has essentially ceded the job to former walk-on Stetson Bennett, who has been a tremendous story. Bennett could've easily transferred over the off-season but instead stuck around in Athens and has put together a 1,985-yard, 21 touchdown season. It helps that the Bulldogs have one of the deepest wide receiver corps in the country and a loaded offensive line helping him out. Tight end Brock Bowers has emerged as the most consistent weapon in the passing game, but there are so many more that can make plays. Ladd McConkey, Jermaine Burton, Adonai Mitchell, and a healthy Kearis Jackson give the Alabama secondary plenty of reason to worry. Jackson is yet another Bulldog that has dealt with injury problems this fall, but he's currently listed as probable for this weekend. Another name to watch is tight end Darnell Washington, who has taken a backseat to Bowers in 2021 but is a true matchup nightmare. He's 6'7", 265 pounds who moves incredibly quick for his size; even against the talented 'Bama linebacker corps, he's going to be a problem. In general, I am curious to see how UGA chooses to attack this Tide defense. This is clearly a run-first offense, but the receiver corps is one of the healthiest it's been the entire season and the Alabama pass defense has been shredded consistently all year long. They shouldn't be afraid to air it out, even if it isn't necessarily the program's style.

Compared to the Georgia offense, Alabama offers significantly less playmakers, but they've still been awfully effective. A lot of that can be credited to quarterback Bryce Young, who is hoping one more dominant performance will secure him the Heisman. Young has been brilliant all season and seems to be playing with even more confidence down the stretch. However, it has not been clear all season who else will show up for the Tide offense, behind Biletnikoff frontrunner Jameson Williams at wide out. Tailback Brian Robinson Jr. and receiver John Metchie have provided steady playmaking alongside Young and Williams, but you feel like Alabama will need more than just that quartet to score enough points against this historical Georgia defense. There's been the occasional flash from supporting pieces like Slade Bolden, JoJo Earle, and Trey Sanders, but 'Bama simply doesn't have the deep plethora of weapons they had on the 2019 and 2020 rosters. Overall, you have to wonder if the Alabama offense has the explosiveness to put up enough points against a Bulldog defense that is one of the best we've seen all-time. Georgia is loaded at every single level and has the type of depth that you only see at truly elite programs. They'll be just fine if Alabama wants to slow the game down, because this defense is going to make you work for every single yard. The greatest concern for Alabama, however, is whether the offensive line will be able to hold up. Simply put, this has been one of, if not the, worst offensive lines a Nick Saban-coached team has ever had. Do they have any chance against this relentless, particularly the interior of the group, which has to deal with Jordan Davis and company?

Although Alabama enters this game 11-1, it's not hyperbolic to say this is the weakest Tide team we've seen in a long time. With that being said, Saban teams always seem to put it together at the right time and they've owned this series for some time now. They're going to find a way to push the Bulldogs, but I think this UGA program has turned a corner. They're ready to not just compete, but beat, the truly elite programs of the college football landscape. It seems only fitting they continue their National Championship run by finally getting over the top against Saban and the Tide.

The Pick: Georgia, 31 Alabama, 24

Big 12 Championship: (#9) Baylor Bears vs. (#5) Oklahoma State Cowboys

For the first time in over a half-decade, we will have a new conference champion in the Big 12. Since 2015, Oklahoma has ruled the league with an iron fist, but now their in-state rival Oklahoma State and Baylor will square off, with a shot at the CFB Playoff still on the line. Not only will the two programs usher in a new era in Big 12 football, they play a completely different brand of football than the league is known for; there will be a whole bunch of defense and ball control, in contradiction of the wide-open, up-tempo offense the Big 12 was once synonymous with. 

Oklahoma State has put together a magical season, with an 11-1 record and a statement victory against OU. Impressively, they've done so with an offense that has been one-dimensional most of the season, leaning heavily on tailback Jaylen Warren all year. Warren has been held in check the last several weeks, meaning the Cowboys have had to open things up more. To Spencer Sanders' credit, he's playing some of the best football of his entire career in Stillwater over the last several weeks. Although his two turnovers threatened to turn the game against the Sooners, he's been extremely efficient down the stretch. Can he continue his hot play against possibly the best secondary he's seen all season? Sanders will need help from the Cowboy receiver corps, which has been injured most of the season but appears to be getting healthy at the right time. Senior Tay Martin is the playmaker Baylor has to be worried about the most, but he'll likely get matched up against Jim Thorpe Award finalist Jalen Pitre, who plays all over the field. Instead, expect names like Blaine Green and John Paul Richardson to continue to see their roles expand. The key will be Sanders' decision-making; at times, he's clearly felt forced to make plays. If this game remains close deep into the second half, he still has to show that he's able to play within himself and not take unnecessary shots against the ball-hawking Bears.

Baylor has also relied heavily on their ground game all year long, putting together one of the most effective rushing attacks in the nation. The leading rusher is Abram Smith, who is known as more of a power guy but is averaging over six yards per carry and has proven he can break games open. Trestan Ebner has proven to be an effective mate in the backfield with Smith, while QB Gerry Bohannon's ability to run adds another element to the offense. It will be interesting to see whether Bohannon is good to go for this game, as he did not play last week against Texas Tech. Freshman Blake Shapen took over in his place and threw for 254 yards, but the Cowboy defense is a significant step-up from the Red Raiders. Considering how stout Oklahoma State has been against the run all season long, thanks to a talented and deep D-Line and one of the game's best linebackers in Malcolm Rodriguez, you do figure Baylor is going to have to manufacture something through the air. Tyquan Thornton and R.J. Sneed have been an effective 1-2 punch all year long, but can they keep it going in the biggest game of the season? It would be nice if other supporting pieces could step into the limelight, such as tight end Ben Sims or senior receiver Drew Estrada, but the Cowboys might not be the team for that to happen against.

I don't envision this game being the most high-scoring or fun game of the weekend, but I actually think it may end up being one of the most interesting. Oklahoma State is looking to secure their first CFB Playoff berth in program history and become just the second Big 12 to do so, while Baylor has a good shot at a New Year's Six Bowl one year after going 2-7. Additionally, both of these teams have strengths that match up really well against each other; Oklahoma State's passing offense against the Bear secondary, Baylor's ground attack against the Cowboy defensive front. Oklahoma State won the last meeting 24-14 and I think they're the smarter pick with the way they've been playing, but it will be a tight one.

The Pick: Oklahoma State, 23 Baylor, 20

Big Ten Championship: (#2) Michigan Wolverines vs. (#13) Iowa Hawkeyes

Jim Harbaugh and Michigan finally did it. For the first time in a decade, they managed to topple Ohio State, putting them in a great position to secure their first-ever Playoff appearance. However, they must get past Iowa in Lucas Oil Stadium to do so. The Hawkeyes might not be the toughest Big Ten West representative to ever make it to Indianapolis, but they're a physical team that matches up well with the Wolverines. They'd love nothing more than to spoil UM's chances at making the four-team field.

Michigan showed last week that even though their offense is not among the most explosive in the country, they can still produce against defenses full of future NFL talent. Quarterback Cade McNamara didn't put together jaw-dropping numbers, but was good enough to get the Wolverines where they need to be. McNamara needs to do much the same in this one; he doesn't need to throw for 300 yards, but needs to take care of the ball and make the right reads on third downs. Iowa's ball-hawking secondary has slowed down quite a bit following their history-defining start to the season, but Riley Moss and Matt Hankins will still be hungry for turnovers. Hassan Haskins is coming off the game of his life, rushing for 169 yards and a gaudy five touchdowns against Ohio State. The Hawkeye defensive front isn't as athletic as Ohio State's, but still attacks downhill in much the same way. Haskins' powerful rushing ability should still put him in great position to move the ball, while a healthier Blake Corum provides the lightning to his thunder. I am interested to see how the Michigan offensive line performs in this game. They had a tremendous performance against the Buckeyes, but OSU doesn't quite have the same pass rushers they've had in past years. Iowa isn't dotted with four and five-stars along the D-Line like the Buckeyes, but they'll still find a way to get after you.

It's actually miraculous Iowa managed to win ten games and the Big Ten West Title with an offense that is among the most inept in Power Five football. They rank low in just about every offensive category you could think of, including passing yardage, rushing, total yardage, and of course, points per game. Running back Ty Goodson has been their main source of offense all season long, but is averaging a mediocre 4.6 yards per carry. Iowa has worked two other tailbacks, Ivory Kelly-Martin and Gavin Williams, into their offense more in the season's second half, but the ground game is not explosive. As for the passing game, it's unclear who will even start at quarterback. Spencer Petras started all 2020 and most of this fall, but Alex Padilla started against Nebraska and has played more down the stretch. The fact that neither has been able to grab control of the offense should tell you everything you need to know about how effective they've been in 2021. The thing is, the Hawkeyes actually have a nice collection of pass-catchers, beginning with tight end Sam LaPorta. Nico Ragaini, Tyrone Tracy, and Charlie Jones can all open up the game on the perimeter, especially the ultra-versatile Jones, but it's just a matter of getting them the football. As for the offensive line, the typical strength of the Iowa program has been stout once again, but faces easily their toughest test of the fall. Aidan Hutchinson has been arguably the best player in college football over the past month, but he shouldn't overshadow fellow future NFL Draftee David Ojabo. In fact, Hutchinson shouldn't overshadow this entire Michigan defense, which has seen a major turnaround after a down 2020. This is a defense that not only executes much better than past Wolverine units, but plays with significantly more energy and fight.

This is the type of game that should perfectly fit the Big Ten's brand. Two teams that rely on their run and play tough, physical defense will likely result in a field position battle, at least early. With that being said, I feel much more confident about what this Michigan offense can do, particularly with McNamara coming off such a strong showing. They won't need to play perfect, but as long as they can score three touchdowns against the Hawkeyes, that should probably be enough for this defense.

The Pick: Michigan, 24 Iowa, 10

Other Picks

Pac-12 Championship: (#10) Oregon, 27 (#17) Utah, 21 -- The Utes might have blown out Oregon just a few weeks ago, but this Ducks team will be ready with a response. They are way too talented to lose multiple games to the Utes in 2021. 

ACC Championship: (#15) Pittsburgh, 41 (#16) Wake Forest, 31 -- Could be a fun little shootout between two of the best offenses in the league. Pittsburgh's slight edge at both QB and defensively gives them the nod in this one.

AAC Championship: (#4) Cincinnati, 31 (#21) Houston, 24 -- I don't see Cincinnati tripping on the goal-line of an undefeated season here. They'll get a test from Houston, but the Bearcat defense is too much for the Cougars.

Sun Belt Championship: (#24) Louisiana-Lafayette, 35 Appalachian State, 30 -- On a neutral site, this game is a true coin flip. But, considering the game will be played at Cajun Field, I like the Ragin' Cajuns to win the conference.

Mountain West Championship: Utah State, 28 (#19) San Diego State, 27 -- Brady Hoke and the Aztecs have had a marvelous 11-1 season, but Utah State's explosive passing offense helps them pull off the upset.

C-USA Championship: UTSA, 37 Western Kentucky, 34 -- UTSA won't complete a perfect season, but they should still have enough left in the tank to overcome Bailey Zappe and the Hilltoppers.