Conference Tournament Predictions: ACC

Malcolm Brogdon

Considered by many the best college basketball conference in the country, the ACC has been chaotic for much of the year. Virginia, North Carolina, Miami and Duke have all taken turns trying to prove themselves as the conference's best team, but none have been consistently able to lock down the conference. However, North Carolina enters the conference tournament as the No. 1 seed, but with how crazy the conference has been, they are far from a lock.

Bubble Teams: Pittsburgh appears to be a near lock for the NCAA Tournament, as they sit at 20-10 and dominated Duke this past week. Though, the Panthers could still use a deep tourney run to strengthen their seeding. Syracuse also should be relatively comfortably in, despite an average 19-12 mark.

First Round
12 NC State 66
13 Wake Forest 60
It has been a rough year for NC State, who looked like a fringe Top 25 team before the year began. But, the Wolfpack could end their regular season on a high note, particularly if ACC Player of the Year candidate Anthony "Cat" Barber goes off.

11 Florida State 70
14 Boston College 55
Boston College hasn't won a single game in the conference all year, and they shouldn't in this one. Florida State is too talented of a team to let this one slip away, even if it isn't very important.

Second Round
8 Pittsburgh 61
9 Syracuse 68
The Orange have been playing terrific basketball since Jim Boeheim returned from suspension, while Pittsburgh really hasn't been able to close out games all season long. If they can't stop dynamic 'Cuse forward Michael Gbinije, they'll have a rough day.

12 NC State 69
5 Duke 72
There is a chance NC State could challenge the undermanned Blue Devils in this one. But, the Wolfpack really lack a forward that can guard the extremely versatile Brandon Ingram, which leaves them extremely vulnerable.

7 Clemson 75
10 Georgia Tech 70
Clemson became a story midway through conference play this year, when they pulled off three straight Top 25 wins, which put them on the NCAA Tournament spectrum. They ended the year with a 10-8 conference mark, and should continue to play high energy basketball in the conference tournament.

11 Florida State 64
6 Virginia Tech 74
Don't look now, but Buzz Williams is building something special at Virginia Tech, who went over .500 in the ACC for the first time in five years. The Hokies are also coming off a dominant win over Miami, and will ride that momentum to a victory.

Quarterfinals
1 North Carolina 78
9 Syracuse 74
UNC may enter the ACC Tournament as the league's top team, but they will certainly get a test from Syracuse. The Orange will clamp down on Marcus Paige, and should at least put up a fight against Brice Johnson and Isaiah Hicks down low.

4 Notre Dame 71
5 Duke 72
Notre Dame quietly put together a very strong year in the ACC this year, and guard Demetrius Jackson is as good as they come. But, Duke is too quick on the perimeter, and should put up a fight in the paint.

2 Virginia 68
7 Clemson 59
The Cavaliers have rode Tony Bennett's pack-line defense to tremendous success this year (it has helped the shot clock was reduced five seconds), and are more dangerous offensively, thanks to ACC POY candidate Malcolm Brogdon.

3 Miami 72
6 Virginia Tech 67
The Hokies just dominated Miami yesterday, and will come into this one with a chip on their shoulder. But, Jim Larranaga is as good as anyone in the nation at adjustments, and the 'Canes should get a much better showing from their talented backcourt of Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez.

Semifinals
1 North Carolina 76
5 Duke 65
The Rematch: Part III. While Duke and North Carolina have gone toe-to-toe twice this year, the Blue Devils might not have enough left in the tank in this one. Considering they will have to rest their tiny, six-man rotation for the NCAA Tournament, bowing out earlier might not be a bad thing.

2 Virginia 75
3 Miami 62
Unless Rodriguez and Miami are splashing from downtown, they are going to have a rough go in this one. Virginia defends as well as anybody, especially down low, essentially neutralizing Miami's only significant big, Tonye Jekiri.

Championship
1 North Carolina 73
2 Virginia 79
Few teams can match UNC down low, as they boast breakout senior Brice Johnson, along with studs Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks. Yet, if there is one it would be Virginia, who has a strong rotation full of veterans. North Carolina doesn't possess a defender capable of shutting down Brogdon, and the Cavaliers enter this one flaming hot.

ACC Champion: Virginia Cavaliers 

*Note: Louisville is not eligible for this year's conference tournament

5 Dark Horse NCAA Tournament Teams

Shaka Smart and Texas

Selection Sunday now stands a week away, as one of the greatest times of the year, March Madness, creeps closer. As chaotic and insane as this college basketball season has been already, the NCAA
Tournament could be even crazier, and an event sure to have plenty of dark horses and Cinderellas. Here are five serious dark horses to watch during the NCAA Tournament:

Texas Longhorns 20-11 overall (11-7 Big 12), Projected 5-8 seed
After spurning a number of big-time college basketball programs, Shaka Smart finally decided to make the jump from VCU this past offseason, landing in Austin and immediately energizing the limping Texas program. After a rough adjustment period, Texas has become a serious force in the Big 12, and in the nation. Smart doesn't run his complete "Havoc" defense that he orchestrated at VCU, but the Longhorns still play aggressively on both sides of the ball and are hectic on the defensive side of the ball. Their backcourt is led by explosive Isaiah Taylor (their leader in assists and scoring) and underrated veteran Javan Felix. While the Longhorns lack ideal size, their depth and talent in the backcourt allows them to dictate tempo, a key component to upsets. And Texas has been no stranger to upsets this season, beating West Virginia twice, Iowa State and Baylor. Shaka Smart is very familiar to NCAA Tournament success, and his first Texas team could wreak havoc much like his old VCU ones did.

Valparaiso Crusaders 26-5 overall, (16-2 Horizon League), Projected 11-13 seed
Valpo is no stranger to great March moments. In 1998, star guard Bryce Drew hit a clutch game winner against Ole Miss to lead the 13th-seeded Crusaders to an epic win, as part of a Sweet 16 run. Now, Drew is on the sidelines for a Crusaders team that is as balanced and fundamentally sound as any team in the nation. Valparaiso averages just 75.3 points per game (131st in the nation) but their offense is extremely efficient, headed by forward Alec Peters (who is shooting over 50 percent from the field), along with electric guard Keith Carter. While their defense may not exactly be lethal, Valpo makes a living on the defensive side of the ball, ranking in as the seventh best defense in the entire nation. They have excellent size which allows them to dominate the paint, and they rotate and play terrific help defense. The Crusaders have a couple of tough losses, with three losses to teams with RPI's ranking in over 150. But, experienced teams that play hard defense are always tough outs in March, and the Crusaders could become the next Horizon League team to do damage to brackets.


Utah Utes 24-7 overall (13-5 in Pac-12), Projected 2-4 seed
It is hard to call a team that went to the Sweet 16 last year and could possibly earn as high as a No. 2 seed a dark horse, but Utah still appears to be extremely overlooked. The Utes have never been known as a basketball school, but Larry Krystiowak continues to work magic in Salt Lake City, thanks in large part to his big man Jakob Poetl. The Austrian center has grown into a more complete post, and has evolved into one of the country's best. Though, this Utes team has become more than just the seven-footer down low. Forward Jordan Loveridge is extremely versatile, and guard Brandon Taylor has picked up the slack in the backcourt for the departed Delon Wright. Utah has now won seven straight games, including wins against Arizona and USC. With the way they are playing right now, they very well could win the Pac-12 Tournament and continue their hot streak deep into the Tourney.

Saint Mary's Gaels 26-4 overall (15-3 in WCC), Projected 8-11 seed
This season in the West Coast Conference, it was supposed to be all about Gonzaga, like usual. The Bulldogs had just been to the Elite Eight, and there was enough talent throughout their roster to think they had a legit shot at their first Final Four in the Mark Few era. But, instead the conference has been all about the Gaels, a perennial NCAA Tournament contender. Over the past few years, Saint Mary's has been known as an offensive-orientated team with great guard play. This year the Gaels have been polar opposites, relying heavily on a stingy defense, holding opponents to just 60.4 points per game. Do-it-all guard Emmett Naar will lead the offense, along with veteran Joe Rahon. and Saint Mary's is actually a very deep team. They pass the ball as well as anybody and teams that have seen Wisconsin have success in the Tournament over the Bo Ryan era will see something similar in the Gaels.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 25-5 overall (18-0 Southland), Projected 13-15 seed
It may also be hard to qualify Stephen F. Austin as much of a dark horse in the NCAA Tournament these days. The tiny school from the Southland has gone to two straight Tournaments and been a popular dark horse pick in each (they beat VCU two years ago). The Lumberjacks started off this year slow, but then would end up going 18-0 in the Southland, behind the play of terrific forward Thomas Walkup, who did it all for SFA. While the Southland Conference isn't exactly full of college basketball heavyweights, it is still significant that SFA was able to be so dominant. The Lumberjacks will likely be a relatively poor seed this year, due to their bad non-conference play. That may be a good thing for Stephen F. Austin, as it gives them an opportunity to do damage without much expectations.

Scouting the Contenders: Kansas Jayhawks

Frank Mason

As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, and scouts their strengths and weaknesses and just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We continue with the Big 12's most consistent program and a likely No. 1 seed, the Kansas Jayhawks:

Track Record:

• 23-4 overall record, 11-3 in conference (1st in Big 12)
• Notable Wins: 109-106 over Oklahoma, 76-72 over Oklahoma, 90-84 over Kentucky
• Notable Losses: 86-67 to Oklahoma State, 85-72 to Iowa State, 74-63 to West Virginia
• Currently ranked No. 2 in polls

Scouting Report: Bill Self regularly reels in five-star and highly touted recruits, but this Kansas team is not full of youth and experience like so many others throughout the nation. They have plenty of veteran leadership, starting with senior forward Perry Ellis. Ellis often gets overlooked because he isn't the most explosive or exciting player ever, but few are as productive as he is. Ellis averages 16.5 points per game, while averaging nearly 53 percent from the field; he is unbelievably efficient. He has a good jumper that opens up the floor, and a smooth post game. He isn't the conventional young superstar that takes over in March, but he certainly could become a big name by the time the season wraps up. The Jayhawks are also led by one of the nation's most dynamic backcourts, which includes sophomores Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham. For years, point guard play has really been restrictive for Kansas. They haven't had a difference maker at the position for a good number of years, until Mason broke out last season. Although undersized, Mason is not lacking in aggressiveness or will power. He is a solid scorer, but makes his name with his great passes and general control of the offense. He also is an extremely underrated rebounder, averaging 4.6 per game this season, good enough for third on the team. Graham was once an Appalachian State commit who broke out with his performance against Oklahoma just a few weeks ago. His 27 points helped lead Kansas over Oklahoma for the season sweep. Graham isn't big either but he is quick and excels through contact, making him a very tough guard. Another big factor is junior Wayne Selden, a sturdy veteran who does many things well. Selden averages around 14 points a game, but also rebounds and passes very well. Gifted with great size at 6'5", Selden is an absolute pain to handle for smaller guards. Those four give Kansas an incredibly gifted core that is as consistent and productive as anybody's in the entire nation. Though, there is plenty of talent beyond that. Three-point gunner Brannen Greene is wildly inconsistent but is lethal when left open, and extremely young Svi Mykhailiuk is starting to put it all together in his second year in Lawrence. Self can also lean on two productive role players in veterans Landen Lucas and Jamari Traylor, who are both gifted rebounders, and two young and improving players in Carlton Bragg and Cheick Diallo. The big names in this year's recruiting class, Bragg and Diallo have had a weird year. Diallo wasn't cleared by the NCAA for weeks on end, and is still learning the ropes of the collegiate game, while Bragg has played sparingly, due to the veterans on this team. Though, both have displayed a crazy amount of talent and potential, and they could make an impact come March. 

Verdict: For as good as Kansas has been in the regular season over the past decade (their 11 straight regular season Big 12 titles speak to that), they have been inconsistent in the postseason. Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid's group bowed out after two games, and Kansas didn't do much a year ago. But, this year's team is different and primed to do some serious damage. There isn't a team out there that has the meaningful experience that Kansas has, or the versatility they possess. They have a number of weapons down low, on the wings and from downtown, all who can score and hurt opponents in so many different ways. The Jayhawks will have to continue to hit the three ball and prove they can beat quality opponents away from home. If they can do it, this team is going to be absolutely terrifying. In a season of absolute chaos, Kansas may just be the consistent, steady team that is able to get it done when it all comes down to it. 

Scouting the Contenders: Oklahoma Sooners

Buddy Hield

As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, and scouts their strengths and weaknesses and just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We continue with a team that could very well win the Big 12 and earn a No. 1 seed, the Oklahoma Sooners: 

Track Record: 

• 20-3 record, 8-3 conference (1st in Big 12)
• Notable Wins: 78-55 over Villanova, 87-83 over Iowa State, 70-68 over West Virginia
• Notable Losses: 82-77 to Iowa State, 109-106 to Kansas, 80-69 to Kansas State
• Held No. 1 overall ranking in polls for two weeks

Scouting Report: He isn't the dominant freshmen that have dominated college basketball over the past few years. He isn't wildly athletic, or the greatest NBA prospect since LeBron James. But, Buddy Hield is the nation's best player in 2015-2016, and I don't think it is very close. Hield always had the size and strength to be an effective shooting guard, but he lacked explosiveness and pure shooting touch, which he worked hard on over the summer. The result: an absolutely terrifying three-point shooting ability that has Hield averaging 25.7 points per game, while shooting 50 percent from deep. Hield still isn't super athletic or explosive but he makes up for it with a quick release that he can get off against the best in the land. You can contain Buddy Hield, but you can't completely stop him, that is what makes him so scary. Isaiah Cousins is a great complement to Hield; he takes dumb shots at times and has struggled with turnovers, but nobody should deny Cousins' skills. He is quick and a great ball-handler and leaves it all out on the court. Teams who overly defend Hield (as they probably should) will have to deal with Cousins and the sneaky Jordan Woodard, both who can take over games in their own right. Woodard is a better shooter than Cousins but lacks the ball-handling or quickness to the rim. The backcourt isn't incredibly deep but Hield, Cousins and Woodard all can play big time minutes and still have their legs under them, which is a huge testament to Oklahoma's conditioning. Ryan Spangler isn't the traditional dominant big man either, just like how Buddy Hield (a Bahamian with a thick accent, by the way) isn't your traditional superstar. The former Gonzaga forward isn't overly physical in the paint but isn't shy either. He is a great worker and can do a lot of different things. He can rebound, play defense and shoot effectively from anywhere. His floor spacing abilities really help Hield, Cousins and Woodard when they choose to drive. Khadeem Lattin is just scratching the surface of what he can be as a big man. He doesn't always make smart decisions and is a liability at the free throw line (although his 53% is slowly improving). With that being said, he has great strength and can clear space underneath effectively. While Spangler does damage on the outside and away from the hoop, Lattin can punish down low. Unfortunately though, he is pretty limited when compared to other true big men throughout the country, and it will be interesting to see how he fares in the NCAA Tournament. Lon Kruger's teams are always poised and play unselfish. This team is no different, which should suit them very well come late March. Even against some of the nation's best teams, Oklahoma has stayed cool and collected, and that isn't something you will see from every team. Their depth isn't overwhelming, but there are a number of guys that can come off the bench and contribute. 

Verdict: In what has been a crazy season, Oklahoma has actually been a pretty constant contender, sticking high in the rankings throughout the year. A big reason for that is Hield and their backcourt, which is about as talented as you can get. But, it also goes beyond just pure talent. The Sooners are a strong-willed, well-coached basketball team. Kruger has done an amazing job at OU ever since taking over for the fired Jeff Capel. He has constructed a poised and well-operated basketball team that doesn't appear as though it will fold in the tourney when the bright lights come on. With how crazy this year has been no team is a lock to go deep. But, Oklahoma has Final Four talent, and I'm penciling them in there. 

Scouting the Contenders: Villanova Wildcats

Ryan Arcidiacono

As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, and scouts their strengths and weaknesses and just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We begin with the nation's current No. 1, the Villanova Wildcats:

Track Record: 

• 20-3 record, 10-1 conference (1st in Big East)
• Notable Wins: 95-64 over Xavier, 72-63 over Seton Hall, 60-55 over Butler, 72-60 over Providence
• Notable Losses: 78-55 to Oklahoma, 86-75 to Virginia, 82-76 to Providence
• Currently a No. 1 seed in Joe Lunardi of ESPN's Bracketology

Scouting Report: Per typical Villanova standards, the Wildcats feature one of the nation's best back-courts, headed by vets Ryan Arcidiacono and Josh Hart. Arcidiacono is one of the land's most underrated guards; he shoots the ball with incredible efficiency and displays great poise late in games. Hart has great size, enabling him to get to the rim and finish through contact. He isn't a great defender though and can be inconsistent. True freshman Jalen Brunson is legit, the five-star recruit handles the ball really well and plays with a maturity well beyond his years. He won't drop 30 on any given night, but he'll give you solid scoring and playmaking ability. Sophomore Phil Booth isn't much of a shooter (34% from the field, 29% from three-point), but he at least adds something on the defensive side of the ball. Villanova's problems begin when examining their frontcourt. Daniel Ochefu is a solid center who can rebound and plays very hard. He averages 9.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and nearly two blocks per game. But, he has never been one to really dominate and he fatigues late in games. That is worrying, considering Villanova's depth, especially in their frontcourt, is seriously lacking. Kris Jenkins is a hard-working forward with plenty of playmaking ability. The forward plays a healthy dose of minutes and can add some scoring punch but mistakes and poor shots are his kryptonite. Beyond those two, Jay Wright doesn't have a ton of options, junior Darryl Reynolds can contribute, but Villanova too often runs a small-ball attack, leaning on Hart or freshman Mikal Bridges to guard uncomfortable positions because they have the most size. That leaves them vulnerable to diverse offensive attacks, and they've struggled to defend some of the top offenses they've played this year, particularly Oklahoma and Providence. Overall, the depth on 'Nova is a really serious problem. They have a good core of about eight guys who can play big minutes, but it is a complete mystery beyond that. Late in the season, when they are tired and facing tough opponents, is having only really eight guys going to hurt them? Yes, and it is going to really hurt them. It also leaves them very vulnerable if someone gets in foul trouble, particularly Ochefu. Ochefu is a good defender but he isn't patient, and he will foul often. If that happens, it leaves Villanova extremely weakened underneath, hurting a team that doesn't have overwhelming size to begin with.  

Verdict: The Wildcats have long been a great regular season under the leadership of Jay Wright. Wright is good at developing players and holds his players accountable. But, they have too often stumbled in the NCAA Tournament, with the lone exception being their Final Four berth in 2008-2009, led by guard Scottie Reynolds. This year's team is undeniably good; they have a ton of talent and plenty of versatility in their staring lineup. Arcidiacono and Hart can legitimately lead an elite team, and Ochefu has flashes of dominance. But, their play against elite teams has been worrying; they lost by 20+ to Oklahoma and didn't look great against Virginia. This disciplined and sound team is good enough to beat up on Seton Hall and Butler and the other mediocre Big East teams. But, when they get into the Tournament, they don't have the staying power. A Sweet 16 berth is completely plausible, but anything beyond that is just way too much of a stretch at this point.