Tuesday, March 15, 2022

2022 March Madness Bracket Analysis: East Region

Johnny Juzang, UCLA


The Top Seed: Baylor Bears

With several key pieces, namely Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler, off to the NBA over the offseason, many people expected a significant step back for the defending National Champion Baylor Bears. Instead, head coach Scott Drew continues to work his magic in Waco, winning 26 games and earning a share of the Big 12 Title. Certainly, it's difficult to compare this year's group to last year's, but there is a lot to like. James Akinjo, Adam Flagler, and Kendall Brown lead a dynamic backcourt and up do-it-all Matthew Mayer remains one of the most under-appreciated players in college basketball. With that being said, this Baylor team is without two key cogs who have played important roles the last few years: L.J. Cryer and Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchou. Tchamwa-Tchatchou tore his ACL and is done for the year, but Cryer's status is one of the greatest mysteries in this entire NCAA Tournament. He's been out for the past six weeks, but there still is a chance he returns. If he does, the Bears get back their top scorer, who is also a deadeye shooter from three. Tchamwa-Tchatchou is a huge loss; if there is a glaring weakness on this Baylor team, it's their lack of depth in the frontcourt. While Flo Thamba and Jeremy Sochan have stepped up in a big way, this is a team that could realistically be bullied by several teams in this region. They should still roll past MEAC Champ Norfolk State in Round One and the 8/9 matchup with either UNC or Marquette is also favorable, but things get tricky after that. Drew has proven he can work some magic and Akinjo, Flagler, and Mayer have proven they can handle the load, but it's hard to imagine this team making another Final Four run with so many injury questions.


Don't Forget About: UCLA Bruins

After a heartbreaking loss to Gonzaga in last season's Final Four, UCLA was a popular preseason National Title selection. They returned nearly everyone from last year's group and also added in a pair of big-name pieces in Rutgers transfer Myles Johnson and highly-touted freshman Peyton Watson. While it's hard to call any team that earned a Top 4 seed a disappointment, the Bruins haven't been able to quite reach those expectations. UCLA has won several big games over Villanova, Marquette, and Arizona, but have also looked flat in some maddening losses to mediocre Pac-12 foes. Those losses have left the Bruins somewhat underrated as they return to the NCAA Tournament. People seem to forget how many offensive weapons are on this roster; Johnny Juzang was one of the stars of last March and is a fearless shotmaker, Jaime Jaquez is a load to handle, Tyger Campbell is the pace-setter at point guard, and Jules Bernard can take over games when needed. The Bruins haven't shot the ball as well as expected this season, but they aren't going to be an easy out against anyone and last year's run proved without a doubt that this group can make a deep run. Even at the four spot, I think UCLA has as good of a chance as anyone to make it out of this region and return to the Final Four.


The Cinderella Possibility: Virginia Tech Hokies

It's difficult to categorize any team from a power conference as a true "Cinderella" but as an 11-seed who needed a run in the ACC Tournament to secure an automatic qualifier, Virginia Tech still fits the billing. Mike Young's team was fairly average for most of the season, going 19-12 overall and 11-9 in the ACC, but they reeled off four straight and beat Duke to secure the bid from the ACC. It's been a complete 180 for the team; they're playing with a bunch of confidence and an offense that was 205th nationally in points per game has suddenly become flaming hot. Forwards Keve Aluma and do-it-all Justyn Mutts remain a fearsome force on the Virginia Tech frontline, but it's been Hunter Catoor's hot shooting that has fueled the Hokie renaissance. Catoor went off for 31 points against Duke in the ACC Championship Game and paired with another sharpshooter in Storm Murphy, VT could be an incredibly tough out for any team they face. I think they have a fairly good shot at reaching the second weekend; Texas has been playing better over the season's second half, but Chris Beard's team is beatable. A potential meeting with Purdue in the second round is also winnable; while Zach Edey and Trevion Williams will be a difficult matchup down low, Matt Painter's program has some March demons to figure out before I pick them on a deep run. 


The Scrappy Underdog: Murray State Racers

As they embark on their 18th NCAA Tournament appearance, it's becoming more and more difficult to call Murray State an underdog. But, as a seven-seed with a potential second round date against Kentucky on the horizon, they'll operate as one. The thing is, Matt McMahon's team could be a very scary team in the bottom-half of this region, as they didn't lose a single game in the Ohio Valley this year and play both ends. They're a scrappy defensive team that has a knack for getting in passing lanes and on offense, Tevin Brown and K.J. Williams offer a potent 1-2 scoring combo. Add in guard Justice Hill, an excellent distributor and decent shooter, and the Racers will put up points. They open against a San Francisco program that hasn't been to the Big Dance in decades, but they shouldn't overlook the Dons. San Francisco has some high-scoring guards and coach Todd Golden is the type of guy who could become a household coaching name in March. I still like the Racers to move onto the Round of 32 and perhaps provide John Calipari and Kentucky a stressful game on the Tournament's first weekend.


The Storyline Team: Kentucky Wildcats

There's little denying Kentucky basketball remains one of the most recognizable and well-known brands in collegiate athletics. However, not since Anthony Davis was dominating opponents has Kentucky lifted a National Title, with the drought now over a decade. At some point, Calipari is going to bring another National Title to Lexington. He's way too good of a coach and has had way too much elite talent pass through this program not to do it. Plus, I think this year's group has a really good shot, particularly considering they play in an East Region where the top seed has so many questions. This Wildcats team checks a lot of boxes of a championship contender. They have elite lead guards (TyTy Washington, Sahvir Wheeler), shooting (Kellan Grady, Davion Mintz), the probable National Player of the Year (Oscar Tshiebwe) and significant depth. This is not your typical Cal-coached "one-and-done" team that might buckle under the pressure of the NCAA Tournament. Grady, Wheeler, Mintz, Tshiebwe, and Jacob Toppin are all transfers from other programs, with most of that group already earning past March Madness experience. I just feel like the timing is right for Calipari to win another one and while this isn't his most talented team he's ever had, I think it's built in a way to do so. I'm slightly hesitant as of late only because the national media seems to be jumping on the Kentucky bandwagon, but they're my National Title pick this year.


Picking the East

First Round

1 Baylor over 16 Norfolk State ... In 2012, Kyle O'Quinn and Norfolk State shocked Missouri as a 15 seed. They won't do it this year as a 16, Baylor rolls on.

8 UNC over 9 Marquette ... This is essentially a coin flip for me. North Carolina has been frustrating all year, but their improved play down the stretch has me going Tar Heels.

5 Saint Mary's over 12 Indiana (projected First Four winner) ... The Gaels are deep, experienced, and well-coached. They make Mike Woodson's first NCAA Tournament run short-lived.

4 UCLA over 13 Akron ... The Zips should put up a valiant fight, but there's just too many weapons on this UCLA roster to think they bow out in the first round this year.

6 Texas over 11 Virginia Tech ... I know I list Virginia Tech as the Region's "Cinderella" possibility, but Texas has too many scoring options and I trust Chris Beard in March.

3 Purdue over 14 Yale ... Even after last year's shocking loss to North Texas, I don't see Purdue losing in the first round again. Jaden Ivey guides them past the Ivy League Champion Yale Bulldogs.

7 Murray State over 10 San Francisco ... Dons are certainly not an easy first round matchup for the Racers, but this Murray State team is too good to lose in the first round.

2 Kentucky over 15 Saint Peter's ... Saint Peter's took advantage of Iona's shocking loss to earn the MAAC's auto bid, but it will be short-lived, as they fall to UK.

Second Round

1 Baylor over 8 UNC ... Definitely not a breeze of a second round game for Baylor, but their edge at the guard spots helps them overcome the Heels.

4 UCLA over 5 Saint Mary's ... Should be a fun, back-and-forth game between these two California schools, but Juzang and Jaquez are too much for the Gaels.

3 Purdue over 6 Texas ... A potential upset spot here with all the scorers Texas can throw at you, but Matt Painter's team is just too well constructed to head home before the second weekend.

2 Kentucky over 7 Murray State ... The Wildcats are in for a fight whether it's Murray State or San Francisco in the second round, but Oscar Tshiebwe is too much for the Racers to contain.

Sweet 16

4 UCLA over 1 Baylor ... UCLA has been frustratingly inconsistent all season, but I'm still a believer in Mick Cronin and the Bruins. They take down a Baylor team who I would probably have winning the Region if they were at full strength.

2 Kentucky over 3 Purdue ... So much future NBA talent on display in this game, but Kentucky just has too many weapons for the Boilermakers.

Elite Eight

2 Kentucky over 4 UCLA ... A fun clash between two of the sport's blue bloods, the Wildcats are deep enough to come out on top in a slugfest.


East Region Champ: 2 Kentucky Wildcats

Monday, March 14, 2022

2022 March Madness Bracket Analysis: West Region

 

Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga

The Top Seed: Gonzaga Bulldogs

For the second straight year, Gonzaga comfortably earned the top overall seed in the Tournament, following a season in which they went 26-3 and won yet another West Coast Conference Title. Is this the Gonzaga team that can finally reach the mountain top and bring home the first National Title to Spokane? They have a lot of the ingredients to do so; the backcourt has three experienced guards who can all handle the scoring load, spearheaded by one of the most efficient players in college basketball in Andrew Nembhard. The Bulldogs posses not one, but two, elite big men who can handle the ball and score in a variety of ways in Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren. Then, there's the overall experience and motivation factor, as the Bulldogs came so agonizingly close to a perfect season a year ago before coming up short against Baylor in the National Championship. There's a lot to like, but the road is not an easy one. Of the three teams Gonzaga lost to this year two of them, Duke and Alabama, are in the region. Duke in particular is a concerning potential foe, as they hope to send Coach K off with a grand exit. Even before then, potential dates with a flaming hot Memphis team, or Arkansas or UConn in the Sweet 16 could be danger spots. This is unquestionably a strong Gonzaga team that was deserving of the top seed, but I think it's clearly a couple steps below last year's group. That doesn't mean they can't win a National Title, but the margin for error is even thinner.


The Cinderella Possibility: Vermont Catamounts

Vermont has become somewhat of a March staple at this point, as they play in their third Big Dance in six years. The first two trips under head man John Becker were short-lived, both first round defeats, but I have a feeling this Vermont squad could be different. For one, they're playing truly incredible basketball, with just one loss since a defeat at the hands of Providence in early December. They're fresh off a dominant showing in the America East Championship Game, as they pummeled UMBC by 39 points. Just as important, it's a balanced roster that plays both ends. They don't play crazy up-tempo but have an effective roster that shoots well from both the free throw line and three-point, and they play strong team defense. There isn't a superstar leading the team like past Catamount teams that were led by UVM great Anthony Lamb, but forward Ryan Davis and guard Ben Shungu are more than capable of leading this team on a run. The Catamounts open up with fourth-seeded Arkansas, an interesting matchup between two teams that play different styles. The Razorbacks seem to have the edge in the backcourt and will try to push the pace, but Vermont has the edge in the paint. I firmly expect UVM to try and muck this one up and play a more contained, slower form of basketball, which could be what they need to do to beat Eric Musselman and the Razorbacks. If they can pull off the upset, it sets up an intriguing matchup with the winner of UConn/New Mexico State with a trip to the second weekend on the line.


Don't Forget About: Texas Tech Red Raiders

Chris Beard may be coaching in Austin now, but Texas Tech still plays with a similar grit and toughness under new head man Mark Adams. The Red Raiders don't have a leading star like Jarrett Culver or Mac McClung on this team, but it's a well-rounded team that is going to be a tough out for anyone. The scoring load will mainly be handled by Terrance Shannon Jr. and Bryson Williams, but teams will also have to contend with Kevin Obanor and Kevin McCullar. Obanor played a leading role on the Oral Roberts team that shocked Ohio State a year ago and played in the Sweet 16, and he's having a strong season with Tech. There's also a pair of interesting guards in Adonis Arms and Davion Warren, who are both extremely fun to watch. Arms is on his third collegiate team and can play above the rim, while Warren is an elite defender who is a tough cover for defenders with his mix of size (6'6") and quickness. Overall, it plays a lot like the Beard-coached teams who went down regularly in March; there's size, toughness, versatility and an attitude that this team plays with, they might not win but they'll have you a hell of a fight for every second of the 40-minute contest. Montana State is not an easy opening game, as the Big Sky Champs are a tough basketball team, but the Red Raiders should win and I think they match up favorably with whoever they face in the next round, whether it's Alabama, Rutgers or Notre Dame. In fact, I think this is the type of team nobody wants to play in this region and I wouldn't be surprised if they toppled one, or both, of the two seeds ahead of them in the region. I'm such a big fan of this team and the way Adams has carried them on following Beard's departure I'm picking them, not Duke or Gonzaga, to come out of the West Region.


Don't Forget About: Davidson Wildcats

A decade-and-a-half ago, Steph Curry introduced the world to Davidson basketball with his magical play leading the Wildcats to an Elite Eight. The program has changed quite a bit since then, but don't be surprised if another sharpshooting Davidson guard catches the world by storm this March: South Korean transplant Hyunjung Lee. The 6'7" junior has an incredibly smooth stroke and is one of the best I've ever seen at moving without the basketball; he's shooting 38% from three despite shooting them at a very high rate, averaging over six attempts per game. He is likely to be the one to fuel a potential Davidson run, but he's far from the only Wildcat that can hurt you. Foster Loyer, who just so happens to be playing the team where he began his career in Michigan State, is averaging over 16 PPG, and forward Luka Brajkovic is a load to handle in the post. Those three, plus guard Michael Jones, form a fearsome foursome that should give any opponent troubles, even if the depth isn't quite there. I like Davidson's chances to beat Michigan State in the first round, which could then set up a fun second round duel with Duke, their fellow in-state foes.


The Storyline Team: Duke Blue Devils

If you haven't already heard a million times by now, this will be Coach K's final time leading the Duke Blue Devils in March. It's obviously the conclusion of a successful and iconic era in Duke hoops and college basketball in general, and you know that Coach K wants to add one more Title to his trophy case before moving on. He certainly has a team with the potential to do so, with a No. 1 pick possibility leading the charge in Paolo Banchero. Fellow freshman A.J. Griffin provides the much-needed shooting touch, while the "veterans" on the team, Wendell Moore, Mark Williams, and Jeremy Roach, are looking for some level of redemption after last year's disappointment. The offense has the firepower to put up points in a hurry, with a Top 10 offense nationally. My question is whether the defense is good enough to carry the Blue Devils on a long Tournament run. Williams is a tremendous rim protector, but the rest of the defense has been inconsistent all season and could face some dangerous offenses along the way. Additionally, I do have serious questions about Duke's lack of depth. Sure, a lot of teams only run 7-8 man rotations in modern college basketball, but what happens if a few of the starters, such as Williams or Banchero, get in foul trouble? I think this team is certainly good enough to win a few games and play past the Tournament's second weekend, but National Title good? I'm just not sure the ingredients are in place to send off K with a bang.


Picking the West

First Round

1 Gonzaga over 16 Georgia State ... The Sun Belt Champs have gone on a tremendous run just to get to the Big Dance, but I fear it will be short-lived as they run into the buzzsaw that is Gonzaga.

9 Memphis over 8 Boise State ... Don't assume this will be a breeze for a suddenly hot Memphis squad, but the Tigers just have so many weapons and are fully healthy.

5 UConn over 12 New Mexico State ... Upset-minded New Mexico State is always a scary 12-seed, but they have no answer for UConn big Adama Sanogo down low.

13 Vermont over 4 Arkansas ... Vermont has been a popular dark horse NCAA Tournament pick, but haven't been able to do serious damage just yet. I think this is the team to change that.

6 Alabama over 11 Rutgers ... This should be a very fun game with all the backcourt talent on display, but the Crimson Tide are simply a better team top-to-bottom than Rutgers.

3 Texas Tech over 14 Montana State ... The Bobcats went 27-7 en route to a Big Sky Title, but they don't have the necessary offense to take down Texas Tech.

10 Davidson over 7 Michigan State ... Hyunjung Lee and the sharpshooting Davidson Wildcats are too much for a Michigan State team that hasn't been playing great basketball these last few months.

2 Duke over 15 Cal State Fullerton ... Coach K and Duke have lost to 15 seeds before, but I just think this group has too much talent to fall to Cal State Fullerton.

Second Round

1 Gonzaga over 9 Memphis ... A lot of future NBA talent on the floor, even with Emoni Bates no longer with the Memphis program, but the Tigers aren't deep enough to compete with Gonzaga for 40 minutes.

5 UConn over 13 Vermont ... Should be a fun battle of New England foes, but this UConn team is disciplined and well-coached, they should be able to come out on top.

3 Texas Tech over 6 Alabama ... A battle of differing strengths. Alabama will play fast with their collection of guards, while Texas Tech wants to slow you down and battle for every inch. The Red Raiders come out victorious in a classic SEC-Big 12 duel.

2 Duke over 10 Davidson ... This could be a really scary second round matchup for Duke, but Paolo, A.J. Griffin, and Trevor Keels help them advance to the second weekend.

Sweet 16

1 Gonzaga over 5 UConn ... Two great basketball teams that should provide plenty of offensive fireworks, but I like the 'Zags to keep on rolling.

3 Texas Tech over 2 Duke ... The Red Raiders don't have the flash or future NBA picks like the Blue Devils, but they play a brand of basketball that should complicate things for Duke.

Elite Eight

3 Texas Tech over 1 Gonzaga ... Not picking Duke or Gonzaga in the West may be bold, but I think both of those teams have fatal flaws and something tells me Tech will be an incredibly tough out.


West Region Champ: 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

NFL Mock Draft 2022: Edition 2 (Combine Edition)

Ikem Ekwonu, NC State to NY Jets

 1. Jacksonville Jaguars

Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

Evan Neal seems to be trending as the favorite for the No. 1 overall pick at this point in the draft process. Neal's a freak of nature who stands at 6'7" and weighs in at over 350 pounds, but his athleticism and footwork are elite. He was somewhat streaky at times in Tuscaloosa, but offers significant upside at a need position for a Jacksonville team looking to upgrade their protection for Trevor Lawrence.

2. Detroit Lions

Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan

I still think there's a fair chance Aidan Hutchinson is Jacksonville's selection at No. 1 but if not, Detroit would have an easy selection staying inside the state to land the former Michigan Wolverine. Hutchinson's poor showing in the Playoff Semifinal loss to Georgia overshadowed what was otherwise a dominant 2021 in which the edge rusher was invited to New York as a Heisman Finalist.

3. Houston Texans

Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon

There's a lot of different directions Houston can go with this pick, including O-Line, pass rusher, and defensive back. Evan Neal would be a no-brainer if he lasts this long, but the Texans instead go best player available with Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux. Thibodeaux has shocking physical tools and put together a strong 2021 despite battling through injuries. He seems to have more bust potential than Hutchinson, but might have higher upside in the long-term.

4. New York Jets

Ikem Ekwonu, OL, NC State

A strong Combine showing likely cemented Ikem Ekwonu as a Top 5 selection in this Draft. The NC State product is a superb athlete for his size and can play at multiple spots along the line of scrimmage. He'd be a smart pick for a New York team that, much like Jacksonville with Lawrence, is looking to protect their franchise signal-caller, Zach Wilson.

5. New York Giants

Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

The run on offensive linemen continues, as the Giants address their pass protection woes by adding Charles Cross out of Mississippi State. Even before hitting the off-season, the offensive line was a position group of need for the G-Men and the recent release of Nate Solder opens up an opportunity for Cross to come in and start right away.

6. Carolina Panthers

Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

This is a fascinating draft spot for Carolina, who has obvious needs at offensive line and quarterback. They'd love if any of the top three were still available at this point but with the trio all gone, they turn instead to Kenny Pickett. For some reason, Pickett's hand size was a hot topic of discussion at the Combine this past week, but it shouldn't move the needle too much. He's the safest quarterback prospect of this Class and could come in and start right away for Matt Rhule.

7. New York Giants

Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

Kyle Hamilton is another player who has helped himself out with a good showing at the Combine, which is likely to lock him in somewhere in the Top 10. The Giants could contemplate picking him up at five but it would be even better to wait and pick him up two spots later. Hamilton's versatility and range make him an ideal fit in the modern NFL, and New York could use him in a wide variety of ways.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Derek Stingley Jr. and Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner are widely considered the top two corners in this Draft, but in my mind, Gardner is the much safer pick. He was the definition of shutdown while at Cincinnati, not allowing a single touchdown pass in his collegiate career. He's a tremendous pickup for a Falcons team looking to upgrade their secondary.

9. Seattle Seahawks

David Ojabo, DE, Michigan

The Russell Wilson trade shook up the Top 10, with Seattle rising to the No. 9 selection after dealing away their franchise quarterback. One might think that means they'll take a quarterback here, but I'm not so sure. With all the uncertainty around the position, I think they may still go defense, as the group was atrocious in 2021. David Ojabo had a breakout fall and has the physical gifts to be a powerful edge rusher for years to come.

10. New York Jets

Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

It's been a long time since the Jets had a truly dynamic target on the perimeter and the position should be a top priority for the front office. With their pick of receivers available here, I think the Jets go with Garrett Wilson, a potential game-changing deep threat who would pair well with Wilson's huge arm. If not for Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba stealing targets away, I think Wilson would have been the runaway Biletnikoff Award winner.

11. Washington Commanders

Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

After an illustrious college career with Liberty, Malik Willis has only helped himself with impressive performances in the Senior Bowl and Combine. He's a fascinating prospect, a big-armed QB with elite rushing ability, but his mechanics and decision-making need refinement. Washington absolutely needs a new start at QB and Willis has the playmaking to come in and make an immediate impact, much like what RG3 did over a decade ago.

12. Minnesota Vikings

Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

What was once a position of strength for Minnesota has deteriorated into a real conundrum for the new front office and coaching staff. Jeff Gladney is long gone, Bashaud Breeland was atrocious, and Patrick Peterson doesn't have much left in the tank. The Vikings are hopeful Derek Stingley Jr. can regain his 2019 form, when he was a dominant true freshman corner, after two frustrating seasons in Baton Rouge.

13. Cleveland Browns

Drake London, WR, USC

Cleveland has an obvious need at receiver, as Odell Beckham Jr. was traded to the Rams and Jarvis Landry could be on the move soon. They would love if Wilson were to fall to them at 13, but Drake London is quite the consolation prize. He's a big-bodied, physical wide out who was putting together a truly special season on a terrible USC team prior to a season-ending injury.

14. Baltimore Ravens

Travon Walker, DL, Georgia

Baltimore's pass rush is going through a transition, as Justin Houston and Calais Campbell both hit free agency and could be heading elsewhere. There's young talent here, but the Ravens could still look to add another edge rusher in Travon Walker out of Georgia. Walker was overshadowed at times with all the other elite talent the Bulldogs had in their front seven, but a strong Combine vaulted him into a Top 15 selection.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue

George Karlaftis is widely considered one of the top pass rushers in this Draft and a potential Top 10 selection, but he could slide demanding on team needs and preferences. A potential slide for him would be a win for Philadelphia, who could use another pass rusher off the edge. 

16. Philadelphia Eagles

Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

Despite investing plenty of draft capital and money into the wide receiver position, Philadelphia is still very weak at the position. They're hoping DeVonta Smith can continue to develop, but another first-round selection at wide out may be in the cards. Treylon Burks was incredibly productive at Arkansas despite playing in a run-heavy offense and would pair nicely with Smith on the perimeter.

17. Los Angeles Chargers

Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

The Charger defense was poor throughout 2021, but they were particularly susceptible against the run. They'll look to address that early on in this Draft and luckily for them, Jordan Davis is ripe for the taking at 17. Davis had a dominant campaign with the National Champion Georgia Bulldogs and he's followed that up with an impressive pre-Draft process.

18. New Orleans Saints

Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

You would've liked to see New Orleans be more proactive in addressing their long-term QB situation when it became clear Drew Brees was nearing the end but here they are, diving into the off-season without an answer at the game's most important position. Perhaps Malik Willis could drop to them, but Desmond Ridder or Matt Corral are the more likely options. Ridder improved every single year while in the college ranks and is one of the safer QB prospects of this Class.

19. Philadelphia Eagles

Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

Philadelphia addresses another need position by adding Trent McDuffie out of Washington. He brings much needed youth to an aging secondary and continues a long line of former Huskies who have made the transition from Seattle to the NFL.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

With "Big Ben" finally retired and without a clear replacement plan in place, Pittsburgh chooses a quarterback on the first night of the Draft. They could trade up to land one, but Matt Corral offers plenty of upside at pick 20. He's got dazzling arm talent and a fearless attitude, but will need to polish off parts of his game to be worthy of a first-round selection.

21. New England Patriots

Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

Mac Jones had an impressive rookie season in New England, but the Patriots could still look to upgrade their mediocre receiver corps. Chris Olave would be an excellent addition in the mid to late first round; the former Buckeye is a proven entity with crisp route running skills and reliable hands. He's the type of ready-made, polished receiver you would love to pair with a young QB.

22. Las Vegas Raiders

Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

Devin Lloyd is too good of a prospect to slide much further down draft boards, as the Utah product is an intelligent, well-rounded linebacker who has the production in college worthy of a first-round selection. He would immediately fit in at a need position and give new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham a nice welcoming gift.

23. Arizona Cardinals

Tyler Linderbaum, OL, Iowa

Tyler Linderbaum is probably a Top 10-15 prospect in this Class but based on the position he plays, it's unlikely he lands super high. That would be good news for Arizona, who wants to upgrade their interior offensive line and show Kyler Murray they're committed to protecting him. Linderbaum might not be the most exciting pick, but anybody who watched him dominate in college knows what he can bring to the table.

24. Dallas Cowboys

Jermaine Johnson II, DE/LB, Florida State

While Dallas has one of the game's most exciting young defenders in Micah Parsons, the rest of the front seven has question marks. Carlos Watkins and Randy Gregory are both set to hit the open market, and Demarcus Lawrence also may not be back. The Cowboys decide to invest in a young pass rusher here in Jermaine Johnson II, who spent time in the JUCO ranks and with Georgia before an impressive 2021 in Tallahassee.

25. Buffalo Bills

Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Buffalo is pretty clearly a Super Bowl contender, but they're just a piece or two away from really getting over the top. The receiver position may be the spot GM Brandon Beane chooses to upgrade, as Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders are aging and both replaceable. A torn ACL in the National Championship Game loss threatens to drop Jameson Williams outside the first, but the Biletnikoff Award finalist is too good to pass up.

26. Tennessee Titans

Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

The Titans may choose to upgrade their receiver corps with Julio Jones nearing the end and A.J. Brown hitting free agency next off-season, but with many of the big names off the board, they instead focus on their O-Line. The unit was decent in 2021, but Taylor Lewan is getting older and may not be worth the money. They invest in his replacement, Trevor Penning out of Northern Iowa, who has had a tremendous pre-Draft process.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M

As newsworthy as the Tom Brady retirement was in Tampa, guard Ali Marpet's decision to call it a career may have just as large of an impact. The Bucs will miss the Pro-Bowler, but they could find his immediate replacement in the form of Kenyon Green. Green, a former high-profile recruit, can play either guard or tackle if needed and is a proven run blocker.

28. Green Bay Packers

George Pickens, WR, Georgia

The Aaron Rodgers saga appears to be on hold, with the reigning MVP signing a massive contract extension. Even so, it's about time the Packers invested in their receiver corps, which has been regularly underwhelming beyond Davante Adams. Enter George Pickens, a big, physical receiver who showed he is back to 100 percent with a strong Combine performance.

29. Miami Dolphins

Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

Miami could go any number of different directions here, or perhaps even trade the selection to a team looking to trade up to the back-end of the first round and get a quarterback. With so much uncertainty, best player available seems like a fair approach, and Nakobe Dean is too good to let get out of the first round. On a team full of future NFL defenders, Dean shone as the real heart-and-soul of this defense.

30. Kansas City Chiefs

Devonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia

The run on Georgia Bulldogs continues, with Devonte Wyatt the next former Bulldog defender to be plucked off the board. Wyatt was often overshadowed by Jordan Davis and all the attention he got, but he's a skilled pass rusher who could play either on the interior or off the edge. He is well worth a late first-round flier for the Chiefs here.

31. Cincinnati Bengals 

Bernhard Raimann, OL, Central Michigan

Anybody who watched Cincinnati's Super Bowl run this year knows how big of a concern the offensive line is. Joe Burrow is obviously great, but the Bengals can't remain in contention if he's being picked up from the dirt every play. Enter Bernhard Raimann, a truly fascinating prospect who comes from Central Michigan. The native Austrian is a former tight end who made the move to O-Line and has NFL scouts drooling with interest.

32. Detroit Lions

Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn

Quarterback seems like a possibility here considering Jared Goff's uncertain future, but I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit holds off on that spot a bit longer. Instead, they look to fix their issues in the secondary by adding Roger McCreary, who was quietly one of college football's best defenders in 2021. There's still a chance Jeff Okudah figures it out but if not, McCreary could become the long-term top corner.

Wednesday, March 2, 2022

2022 March Madness Primer

Ochai Agbaji, Kansas

With February in the rearview, we enter one of the most exciting times of the year for college sports fans: March. There's still plenty of good basketball to watch over the coming few weeks, but all eyes are on the impending NCAA Tournament. In that spirit, I've decided to unveil my 2022 March Madness primer, taking into account everything you should be following before Selection Sunday on March 13. From the battle for the No. 1 seeds, to bubble teams and potential Cinderellas, this is the place to start your NCAA Tournament research.


The Basics

Considering the 2020 NCAA Tournament was cancelled and the 2021 edition was a shell of the usual event, the 2022 Big Dance will be the first "normal" iteration of the event in three years! What does that mean? Here are a few things to consider:

  • All 32 Division I college basketball conferences will be represented at the event in 2022. That was not the case last year, as the Ivy League did not play a season at all due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This means that there will once again be 36 at-large spots open for non-automatic qualifiers.
  • The Tournament will expand beyond the state of Indiana, after the 2021 NCAA Tournament was held entirely in the Hoosier State. The "First Four" will once again be held in Dayton, while other first and second round venues include: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Fort Worth, Portland, Greenville, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and San Diego.
  • Expect the stands to be full and raucous this year, after the event was limited to 25% capacity in 2021. The return of fans will add an interesting and much-needed element to the Tournament this year after a weirdly quiet '21.
  • The 2022 NCAA Tournament will wrap up in New Orleans with the Final Four games on April 2nd and 4th. This will be the sixth time the City of New Orleans hosts the event, the first time since 2012. The winner that year? Anthony Davis and the Kentucky Wildcats toppled Kansas.

The No. 1 Seed Battle
With just four No. 1 seeds to play for, it should be a fascinating race down the stretch. There's not any team that is a lock for a top seed right now and as many as 7-8 that seem to have a very realistic shot at rising to the one seed line. Here are the most likely contenders:
  • Gonzaga Bulldogs: Gonzaga is the betting favorite to be the top overall seed for the second consecutive year. This team isn't as dominant as last season's squad, but they're still the nation's current No. 1 with a 23-3 overall record and 12-1 mark in the West Coast Conference. The Bulldogs have been aided by a strong non-conference resume that includes wins over Texas, UCLA, Texas Tech, and Saint Mary's. They've also been helped by the fact that the WCC is the strongest it's been in years, with as many as 4-5 teams in serious contention for a trip to the Big Dance. The loss this past weekend to Saint Mary's showed Gonzaga still has some kinks to work out over the next few weeks, but they're in a good spot.
  • Auburn Tigers: Bruce Pearl's team spent a few weeks perched at the No. 1 ranking and they remain in play for the top overall seed. After an early-season loss to UConn, Auburn ripped off 19 straight wins before falling to Arkansas. They've shown some cracks in the foundation with losses to Tennessee and Florida over the last few games, but if they can hold to the SEC Title, they're in prime position to be a top seed.
  • Arizona Wildcats: One of the best stories in college basketball this year, Arizona has a legit chance to be a No. 1 seed in head coach Tommy Lloyd's debut season. They're 25-3, have essentially already clinched the Pac-12 regular season title, and beat Michigan and Illinois in the non-conference. There's still work to be done, but Lloyd appears set to deliver a No. 1 seed to Tucson for the first time since 2014.
  • Kansas Jayhawks: As the top team in possibly the nation's toughest conference, Kansas will be in contention for a No. 1 seed. Bill Self's club has a strong resume across the board and of their four losses, three have been to current Top 10 teams (Kentucky, Baylor, Texas Tech). Even the one loss that wasn't, a head-scratcher to Dayton, doesn't look as bad recently with the Flyers' improved play. With that being said, KU is lacking a signature victory that could push them into No. 1 seed territory and they're running out of opportunities to find it, plus the loss to TCU last night further complicates things. The Jayhawks could still earn top billing by earning a Big 12 Title, but the better money in the league seems to be on the team from Waco right now.
  • Baylor Bears: The reigning National Champs got a huge win this weekend over Kansas, pushing them back into the top seed discussion. Outside of a defeat to Oklahoma State, Baylor doesn't have a bad loss and they built a nice non-conference resume by beating Oregon, Michigan State, and Villanova. The Big 12 Tournament may decide who takes a top seed between Kansas and the Bears.
  • Duke Blue Devils: Duke owns one of the most important non-conference victories of the season with their win over Gonzaga, but the fact the ACC has been incredibly weak has hurt their No. 1 seed chances. With the chaos that happened over the weekend, the Blue Devils seem to be back in play and who knows, Coach K's farewell tour may be the motivator the Selection Committee needs to place them as a No. 1.
  • Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin's win this week over Purdue earned them a share of the Big Ten Title and with a strong non-conference resume, Greg Gard's team is in play for a top seed. Purdue and Illinois remain at least in the conversation, but neither have been able to string together the consistent play necessary for a No. 1 seed. However, the Big Ten Tournament could complicate things a bit, with neither the Boilermakers or Illini completely dead if enough chaos happens elsewhere.

The Bubble Teams
The NCAA Tournament bubble is always a fascinating watch this time of year, and the race this year is no less intriguing. There's a handful of teams vying for just a few at-large spots, and there's a chance those spots could be reduced even further with the potential of "bid-stealers," teams who win their conference tournaments and in turn, steal a bid. Here are a few of the bubble teams I'm keeping an eye on as the regular season draws to a close:

  • Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana looked safely in the field for a few months before a recent five-game skid threw their NCAA Tournament hopes into question. They've since recovered by beating Maryland and Minnesota, but neither victory is going to push them back into safety just yet. A battle against another bubble team, Rutgers, looms before the Purdue rivalry game to conclude the regular season. 
  • Memphis Tigers: Penny Hardaway's Memphis Tigers have been one of the most frustrating teams all season, but as winners of eight of their last nine, they're in play for the Big Dance. They have two great wins, over Houston and Alabama, that could propel them over the rest of the pack, but a pair of bad losses, to Ole Miss and Georgia. With one more game against Houston remaining on the schedule, with it being at home, the Tigers are in decent position to break through and reach the NCAA Tournament.
  • San Francisco Dons: San Francisco hasn't made an NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998, but this year's team could be the one to change that. They built a strong non-conference resume, but the WCC has been difficult this year, as they sit at 10-6 in the league. It would be helpful if the Dons were able to come out with a victory against either one of the two Tournament locks in the conference, Gonzaga or Saint Mary's, but they lost all four to those two foes. Their performance in the WCC Tournament is likely to decide their fate.
  • Oregon Ducks: One of the preseason favorites in the Pac-12, Oregon had a frustrating start to the year, but Dana Altman's team is trending up at the right time. They recovered from a pair of road losses to the Arizona schools by beating UCLA, pushing them right back into the bubble. They absolutely need to sweep the Washington schools over the next week, but they're another team that will be have to impress in their respective conference tournament to secure a bid.
  • Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Steve Forbes has done a great job with this Wake Forest team, but the Demon Deacons are trending in the opposite direction of where they'd like to be going. They've lost three of five, and while defeats to Miami and Duke are understandable, the Clemson loss stings. This is a team that lacks the resume of others trying to battle in; outside of Notre Dame and potentially UNC, they don't own a single win against a projected NCAA Tournament team.
  • BYU Cougars: A resounding win over then-No. 12 Oregon early in the season seemed to indicate BYU was going to be a challenger to Gonzaga in the WCC, but they haven't quite fulfilled those early expectations. They're 21-9 overall and 9-6 in the league as they embark on the conference tournament, finding themselves right on the bubble. A bad loss to Pacific is holding them back particularly, but they're also lacking much signature wins. If San Diego State and Oregon can both sneak into the field (they're both firmly on the bubble), that would help BYU quite a bit, but they're simply might not be enough spots for that to happen.

Dark Horse Teams
"Cinderella" stories are part of what makes March Madness so great. But, the whole reason they're "Cinderella" stories is because they come out of nowhere to shock the college basketball landscape. That makes them difficult to predict, especially when you don't even have a cemented bracket. Even so, these are the low and mid-major teams to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.

  • Toledo Rockets (Projected Seed: 13-14): The MAC has quietly became a very respectable mid-major league, and the Toledo Rockets are the favorite to be the conference's automatic qualifier. This team has a high-scoring offense, rebounds the ball well, and shoots a decent percentage from both the stripe and three. They played Michigan State fairly tough earlier in the season and could follow in the footsteps of fellow MAC schools Ohio and Buffalo by winning a game or two in the Big Dance.
  • Iona Gaels (Projected Seed: 12-13): Iona is going to be a popular upset pick this year, for a few reasons. For one, they are 24-5 overall, 16-2 in the MAAC, and beat Alabama in the non-conference. More importantly, they have a legendary coach on the sideline, Rick Pitino, who would love to sink a major-conference school in the first round. This is likely to be Iona's 16th NCAA Tournament team, but they have only won one game in program history, providing a nice dose of motivation.
  • North Texas Mean Green (Projected Seed: 13-14): Grant McCasland's team pulled off a notable upset last spring when they took down fourth-seeded Purdue, and his Mean Green will be dangerous once again. After a shaky start to the year, this team has reeled off 14 straight victories and is in the driver's seat in the Conference USA. As one of the best defensive teams anywhere in college basketball, UNT is going to be an absolute headache for some team in the first round, assuming they lock down a Tournament bid.
  • Colgate Raiders (Projected Seed: 14-16): Colgate is looking to make their third consecutive NCAA Tournament and remains in the driver's seat in the Patriot League. The Raiders have been up-and-down most of the year; they got a big win against Syracuse in the non-conference, but also suffered several head-scratching losses. They've recovered by going on a long win streak of their own and remain a potent offense that shares the ball as well as anybody in the nation. Big Keegan Records isn't going to drop 30 a game in the NCAA Tournament, but is the type of versatile, efficient big that could help fuel a run.
  • Princeton Tigers (Projected Seed: 13-15): Ivy League teams are always dangerous teams when it comes to March and they'll be back with a vengeance after not participating in the event in 2021. Princeton is the favorite to be the league's representative, and the Tigers could be sneaky. Head coach Mitch Henderson always has teams that play fast and love to score, but this team is better shooting than past editions. With three players who average at least 15 points per game, the Tigers have the balanced scoring you need to go on a March run.


Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Scouting the Contenders 2022: Gonzaga Bulldogs

Drew Timme, Gonzaga
As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, scouts their strengths and weaknesses, and takes a best guess on just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We continue with the Gonzaga Bulldogs, who recently retook their post as the No. 1 team in the nation.


Track Record

  • 23-2 overall, 12-0 in the West Coast Conference
  • Notable wins: 86-74 vs. Texas, 83-63 @ UCLA, 69-55 vs. Texas Tech, 74-58 vs. Saint Mary's
  • Losses: 84-81 @ Duke, 91-82 vs. Alabama
  • Clinched 10th straight WCC Title

Scouting Report
Mark Few's Gonzaga program continues to run like a well-oiled machine. After coming just short of an undefeated season in 2020-21, the Bulldogs have been one of the most consistently strong teams anywhere in college basketball this year. With Auburn's recent struggles, the 'Zags were able to reclaim the No. 1 spot in the country, and they are the clear betting favorite to be the top overall seed come NCAA Tournament time. With that success, comes added pressure. Few has now taken this program to a pair of National Championship Games in just the past half-decade, but came up short in both. Is this year's team finally the one to bring a National Title back to Spokane?
Strengths
Offensive strength/versatility... Much like last year's team, this Gonzaga team boasts one of the best offenses in America. They average nearly 90 points per game and shoot an efficient clip from the field, three-point, and from the free throw line. There are several reasons why this group is so effective; for one, they have enough talent on the roster that they can spread out their scoring and don't have to rely on just one or two pieces. Forward Drew Timme is the leading scorer and the star of the team, but Andrew Nembhard, Julian Strawther, Chet Holmgren, and Rasir Bolton can all handle the offensive load when needed. Just as important, it's a group with a lot of varying strengths and skillsets, which gives the offense significant versatility. It's a real pain for opposing defenses when they have to deal with a pair of seven-footers who can both shoot the three ball like Timme and Holmgren, and the backcourt trio can shoot and penetrate as well as anybody in the nation. Lastly, you'll notice when watching Gonzaga just how freely this offense flows; the ball movement, spacing, cutting, all of it is at a professional level. This isn't your average college basketball team, they play with a rhythm and movement that you simply don't see very often. It's easy to say every high-scoring offense that can shoot is reminiscent of the peak-Golden State Warriors, but this group has shades of that offense, even if they don't have a pair of "Splash Brothers" in their backcourt.
Size... Timme and Holmgren are two players that you don't see very often in college basketball, let alone on the same team. They're well-rounded big men who are incredibly tough to guard; Timme is a machine around the basket and excellent at finding space in the paint. Holmgren, on the other hand, is incredibly quick for his size and is shooting 45% from three-point territory. There's not many teams that have defenders capable of stopping that duo, with their mix of size and skillset. Even the Gonzaga backcourt brings size to the table. Nembhard and Strawther, two of their primary ball-handlers, are 6'5" and 6'7", respectively. That enables them to dictate mismatches offensively and on defense, both of them have a knack for getting their hands in passing lanes. This overall size is supported by the numbers, too. The Bulldogs are Top 10 in the nation in rebounding and blocks, and actually leads the nation in defensive rebounding. Those types of things matter, particularly when it comes to the Big Dance. Gonzaga's ability to not allow second chance possessions could mean all the difference when they face tougher foes down the line.
Coaching... Mark Few is one of the best coaches in college basketball, full stop. He's always been a great program builder, and has taken his recruiting to a completely different stratosphere, but people still don't completely respect his basketball mind. He's an absolute tactician as an offensive coach and is great situationally; he's proven his worth in countless close Gonzaga victories. Just as important, Few is a calm, steadying presence on the sidelines. That's crucial for a Bulldog team that always has significant pressure on them, which will be taken to another level in March. Having a voice of reason like Few leading the charge should help the 'Zags survive the chaos of an event literally coined, "March Madness."
Motivation... No basketball team ever needs extra motivation to go out and try and compete for a National Title, but you get a feeling this means even more to Gonzaga with how last year panned out. To be the most dominant team all season and frankly, one of the most dominant teams we've seen in decades, and fall short on the goal-line is quite the motivator. Most of last year's group remains in town, namely Timme and Nembhard, and their goal has been obvious. It's not about West Coast Conference Titles, or No. 1 rankings, or a No. 1 seed. It's all about getting to the National Championship and this time, finishing the job. "Championship or bust" is a phrase that I think gets thrown around too often, but for this Gonzaga team, I think it fits perfectly.

Weaknesses
Competition... This is the common knock against Gonzaga, but it's only partially fair. The Bulldogs always play tough in the non-conference portion of the season, evidenced by games against Texas, Texas Tech, Alabama, and Duke this year. The West Coast Conference has also rapidly improved behind them; BYU and Saint Mary's remain consistent NCAA Tournament teams and the league could put as many as 4-5 teams in the Big Dance in 2022. With that being said, Gonzaga still doesn't face the same type of schedule other teams grappling for a No. 1 seed do. Between their meeting with Texas Tech right before Christmas and their victory over Saint Mary's just over a week ago, they did not face a single ranked foe. They still faced several quality opponents, such as BYU and San Francisco, but beating up on middle-of-the-pack WCC teams is different than beating up middle teams in say, the Big Ten. It's hard to know how this impacts Gonzaga; they've shown the last few years that the lack of difficult schedule for weeks at a time hasn't kept them reaching a National Championship. But, the lack of elite opponents on the schedule down the stretch reduces their ability to figure out their own deficiencies and work through them. It's not always as simple as "iron sharpens iron," but it's not crazy to think a tougher schedule would end up doing the Bulldogs good in the long run.
Depth... This is a bit of nitpicking this Gonzaga team, particularly when you consider most modern college basketball teams only go 8-9 deep. But, you do wonder if the Bulldogs have the legs to survive the gauntlet of March with this current roster. They have five proven starters and have three other guys that play at least 15 minutes in a pair of freshmen, Hunter Sallis and Nolan Hickman, and veteran big Anton Watson. Beyond that, there's not very much on this roster beyond a pair of little-used pieces in forward Ben Gregg and guard Matthew Lang. Gonzaga has proven you don't need to be 11-12 deep to be successful and it helps when your starting lineup is as effective as this group is, but it's something to consider when you're evaluating the Bulldogs.
Perimeter defense... If you watch the tape of Gonzaga's two losses, there are a few things that jump out. Most notably, they turned the ball over quite a bit in both defeats but overall, they don't turn the ball over too much, averaging out to around 11 per. The more notable thing to watch in the losses and some of Gonzaga's other close games, has been the guard battle. Nembhard, Bolton, and Strawther are tremendous offensive players, but they've been outplayed on the other end on more than one occasion. Nembhard leads the team in steals and is a good defender at the point-of-attack, but Bolton and Strawther leave a lot to be desired. It hasn't been too much of an issue for Gonzaga because their offense can generally respond but there's a chance they run into guard-oriented teams in the NCAA Tournament who will be able to take advantage. The Alabama game in particular was telling; Jaden Shackelford dropped 28 points for Alabama and the pace of the Tide caused Gonzaga significant difficulties. If Gonzaga runs into them again or faces a similar opponent, I think that the blueprint for beating them is there, especially late in the year when they don't have their legs. One team in particular Gonzaga has yet to play that I think could give them real problems in a hypothetical Final Four/National Championship game? Kentucky, whose collection of guards (along with the dominance of big Oscar Tshiebwe) has propelled them into becoming a National Title frontrunner.

Bottom Line
Gonzaga entered the season as my National Title pick and after three months of basketball, my opinion hasn't shifted too much on them. This is a really good basketball team with an excellent coach leading the charge; Timme and Nembhard are two of my favorite players in college basketball and Holmgren is a special talent. They've proven their worth not only by beating up on the WCC, but impressing in the non-conference portion of the season. I think they're one of the safer bets to make a Final Four, but the big question for me remains the same as it did preseason: can they finish the job? This team is a step below last year's edition in my mind, but their path appears easier, without any clear favorite right now in college basketball. That alone makes them one of the smarter National Title picks out there, particularly with the added motivation from last year's loss. This program has been unfairly labeled as somewhat of March choke, unable to finish the job despite countless high seeds. Not only is that not completely true, I don't think it will be the case for long. This program has way too much talent and Few is too good of a coach for the 'Zags to remain National Title-less for long; this team can certainly be the one to bring one back to Spokane.

Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Big Ten Power Rankings 2021-22: Edition 2

Gabe Brown & Marcus Bingham, Michigan State
* Records updated through morning of 2/15/2022

1. Illinois Fighting Illini 

18-6 overall, 11-3 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 2)

Illinois appears to be a team trending up at the right time as they look ahead towards the final stretch of Big Ten play. They're the healthiest they've been all year, with Andre Curbelo finally back and Kofi Cockburn 100 percent, putting together a dominant month of February. Even though a recent road loss to Purdue means that they were swept in the season series against one of the other league favorites, the Illini have been the consistently better team in Big Ten action. In addition, the Illini resume has been bolstered by the success of their non-conference losses. Of their three non-conference losses, Arizona appears to be in serious discussion for a No. 1 seed and Pac-12 Title, Marquette has been flaming hot and is a serious Big East contender, and while the Cincinnati loss isn't a great look, it can at least be defended by the fact it was on the road. The schedule the rest of the way looks favorable, even with road meetings with Rutgers and Michigan State looming.

2. Purdue Boilermakers

22-4 overall, 11-4 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 1)

On paper, Purdue has just about everything you would want from the Big Ten's frontrunner. They have size, shooting, experience, and a fearless offensive weapon in Jaden Ivey. Yet, their last two contests have not been very encouraging; they were shocked by 24 in Ann Arbor to a .500 Michigan team then got all they could handle from Maryland, who is currently 3-11 in the league. To be fair, you can forgive an off night or two in this conference, but you would like to see a little bit more consistency from Purdue if they are to fulfill their vast potential. The last five games in the conference should tell us a lot about whether this team is "Final Four good" or merely "second weekend good," as they face upset-minded Rutgers, and then go on the road to Michigan State and Wisconsin.

3. Michigan State Spartans

18-6 overall, 9-4 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 3)

Even though they sit just a step behind other Big Ten elites, Michigan State is still in decent spot for a run at the regular season title. While the rest of the schedule isn't a breeze by any stretch of the imagination, it's very helpful that the Spartans get both Purdue and Illinois at home to finish up their league slate. In order to have a shot at the league title, Michigan State desperately needs more beyond Malik Hall. Hall has had a breakout year as one of the team's top offensive weapons, but the supporting cast has been a rollercoaster ride. Guys like Gabe Brown, Max Christie, and Tyson Walker have shown they can handle the offensive load, but have been awfully streaky in recent weeks. With March fast approaching, you get the feeling Tom Izzo's team is going to put it together, but that cast needs to rid themselves of shooting and turnover woes that have plagued MSU all season.

4. Wisconsin Badgers 

19-5 overall, 10-4 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 4)

The Badgers haven't been playing the prettiest basketball in recent weeks, but they've managed to stay alive in the Big Ten Title hunt, with a 10-4 league record. With that being said, recent losses to Illinois and Rutgers have made clear the Wisconsin deficiencies. This is not a good three-point shooting team and they struggle to defend the post; they simply don't have the size of some of the other conference elites. The Badgers have managed to survive because of the exceptional play of Johnny Davis and Tyler Wahl, but others have to emerge if this team wants to stay firm near the top of the Big Ten standings. The good news is that the remaining conference stretch is manageable; Purdue is the only current ranked team they'll play and while road trips to Indiana, Rutgers, and Minnesota will be tricky, all are at least winnable.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes

15-6 overall, 8-4 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 5)

Chris Holtmann's team remains one of the most perplexing teams in the Big Ten. They've racked up several major wins on the season, but also have a tendency to play down against certain teams. Their loss to Rutgers last week wasn't terrible considering it was in Piscataway, but the Buckeyes led most of the way and looked like the better team for the vast majority of the game. Consistency isn't easy in this deep and balanced league, but the Buckeyes are hopeful they can end the year strong, and their win against Duke in the non-conference should help their seed. They also have one of the Big Ten Player of the Year frontrunners in E.J. Liddell, who has turned his game up a notch over the last month-and-a-half. He'll have a tough road in front of him with Johnny Davis, Kofi, Keegan Murray, and Jaden Ivey all vying for the award, but he remains right in the thick of things.

6. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

15-9 overall, 9-5 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 7)

Speaking of perplexing teams, is there any Big Ten team more confusing than the Rutgers Scarlet Knights? They underwhelmed in the non-conference stretch and have taken their lumps in Big Ten action, but their last three wins have all been over ranked foes, including a win in Madison. It's always been a talented roster, but it's interesting to see how things have evolved over the course of the season. While Ron Harper Jr. remains a focal point, the emergence of Paul Mulcahy has really spearheaded their recent renaissance. The junior is not only shooting the ball extremely well, he's become one of the best passers anywhere in college basketball, averaging over five a game at this rate. If he can keep things up, this is a scary team down the stretch who sits firmly on the bubble right now, but has plenty of opportunities to cement an NCAA Tournament bid.

7. Iowa Hawkeyes 

17-7 overall, 7-6 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 8)

After their early February meeting with Ohio State was postponed due to inclement weather and issues with their plane, Iowa went on a three-game winning streak over the last week-and-a-half to improve to over .500 in league play. Granted, they weren't exactly beating up on the big boys of the Big Ten, beating Minnesota, Nebraska, and Maryland but it was still a nice little run to improve their NCAA Tournament chances. What's been particularly encouraging about Iowa's recent play has been an improved defensive performance; it's still a team that will always rely on their offense, but the Hawkeyes have been playing with more energy on the other side of the floor as of late. If they can keep that up into March, this is a talented enough team to make some noise in the Big Ten Tournament and win a game or two in the Big Dance.

8. Indiana Hoosiers

16-8 overall, 7-7 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 6)

While both Rutgers and Iowa took advantage of three-game winning streaks to move up these rankings, Indiana's three-game losing streak sent them tumbling a few spots. It wasn't an easy three-game stretch, as the Hoosiers faced Illinois and both Northwestern and Michigan State on the road, but proved Mike Woodson's team still has work to do if they want to end their NCAA Tournament drought. Trayce Jackson-Davis remains one of the best front-court players in a league loaded with them, but it's any guess what you're getting from Indiana's guards each game. When they're on, this is a dangerous team with legitimate NCAA Tournament potential; when they're not, it really is just an average Big Ten team. The last six games won't be a breeze, so they'll need more from this backcourt to get the job done.

9. Michigan Wolverines

13-10 overall, 7-6 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 9)

We have been waiting all season for the preseason Top 10 Michigan Wolverines to put it all together. While it hasn't all come together just yet, there's no denying this Michigan team is a scary one down the stretch, even fresh off a loss to Ohio State. Hunter Dickinson has been their leader all season, but the supporting cast is finally beginning to emerge. Youngsters Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate seem to be playing with more confidence, and Eli Brooks is finally starting to regain his stroke from three. The Wolverines are still on the outside looking in, but this is a talented basketball team with plenty to play for; they could rise up these rankings before it's all said and done.

10. Northwestern Wildcats

12-11 overall, 5-9 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 12)

Give Northwestern a lot of credit; after their Big Ten-opening win over Maryland, they lost eight of their next nine league games and could have mailed it in. Instead, they've rebounded in recent weeks, winning three of their last four games, with Illinois being the lone defeat. This is not the most talented team in the conference, but guards Boo Buie and Chase Audige give opposing defenses problems, and the Wildcats play unselfish, team basketball. Northwestern isn't going to the NCAA Tournament, but could they sneak into the NIT field? It would be an awfully nice consolation prize for Chris Collins' program.

11. Penn State Nittany Lions

9-12 overall, 4-9 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 10)

It's been a rough few weeks for a Penn State team that started off conference action playing surprisingly strong basketball; with the lone exception of a four-point home victory over Iowa, PSU has lost six straight games. Seth Lundy remains one of the most underrated players in the Big Ten, but the rest of the offense has completely disappeared. The Nittany Lions have only hit the 60-point threshold twice in their last seven contests and are currently 351st in the nation in total offense. Head coach Micah Shrewsberry seems to have this team playing hard, but there's not much you can do with that type of ineptitude.

12. Minnesota Golden Gophers

12-10 overall, 3-10 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 11)

As expected, Ben Johnson's first team in Minneapolis has suffered through serious growing pains. They were riding a five-game losing streak, punctuated by their worst showing of the year in a loss to Nebraska, before snapping it this weekend against Penn State. The Gophers are hoping that win gives them the momentum they need to take on a nice late-season stretch. Beyond a road tilt against Ohio State, the other five games are at least winnable, even though welcoming Wisconsin and Indiana to "The Barn" won't be easy.

13. Maryland Terrapins

11-14 overall, 3-11 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 13)

It's clearly a lost season for Maryland basketball, who is now in the midst of a five-game skid. With that being said, the Terrapins are still playing hard out there for interim coach Danny Manning. Over the last five, they've went toe-to-toe with Purdue and Michigan State and are still a tough out for most teams in this league, even as they sit 13th in the conference standings. The backcourts of Fatts Russell and Eric Ayala is enough to keep Maryland at least interesting over the next few weeks, even though there isn't much to play for at this point.

14. Nebraska Cornhuskers

7-18 overall, 1-13 Big Ten (Previous Rank: 14)

Fresh off a 24-point defeat at the hands of Northwestern and 0-12 in the Big Ten at that point, Nebraska desperately needed a win at home against Minnesota. They did just that, playing their best basketball of the year en route to a 13-point win over the Gophers, giving them at least some measure of momentum as we hit the home stretch. A blowout loss to Iowa over the weekend seemed to kill off most of the good vibes, but there are still winnable games left on the schedule. Fred Hoiberg's seat is unbelievably hot, but with his buyout being so high, there's a good chance he's back for '22-'23. He can use these next few weeks as a springboard towards a brighter future next winter.

Wednesday, February 9, 2022

Transfer Portal 2022: Ranking the Top 10 QB Transfers of the Offseason (So Far)

Jaxson Dart, USC to Ole Miss

No matter your thoughts on the transfer portal, there's absolutely no denying just how crucial it has become to the world of college football. Simply consider some of the sport's signature stars over the past half decade: Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray. All of them took a leap of faith and left their original schools to start anew. This offseason, the transfer portal got dialed up even further, with major names at every position hitting the market and shaking up the college football universe. In that spirit, I decided to take a deep dive into the quarterback position and evaluate the ten signal-callers whose respective transfers will have the greatest impact in 2022 and beyond. The wild thing is, this list could realistically grow by the time we kick off in seven months, with spring ball and fall camp likely to shake up depth charts further.


1. Caleb Williams, Oklahoma to USC

Lincoln Riley's decision to bail on Oklahoma and move on to the West Coast at USC sent shockwaves throughout the college football world. He took several major Oklahoma assistants with him to the Pac-12 and also mined the Sooner recruiting class for future talent, with a host of future players set to join him. However, there was no bigger move for Riley in his first offseason at USC than landing his prized quarterback, Caleb Williams. The expectation prior to the 2021 campaign was that Williams, a five-star from the D.C. area, was going to sit behind Heisman Trophy frontrunner Spencer Rattler then get his opportunity in '22. Of course, things can change rapidly in this sport, and Rattler's prolonged struggles led Riley to turn to Williams earlier then expected. The freshman immediately became a household name when he led OU to a thrilling, come-from-behind victory over Texas. He followed that up by putting together a stat-line of 1,921 yards, 27 total touchdowns, and a 64% completion percentage. Now, he follows his head coach to 'SC, with an opportunity to do even greater things. He'll play in a wide-open offense with an abundance of playmakers on the perimeter inside a Pac-12 South that is wide open behind reigning champ Utah. Needless to say, Williams is going to enter next fall with lofty expectations, but I am curious to see what type of strides he makes over the offseason. For all his talent and magical playmaking abilities, he took some very freshmen QB shots down the field, and should be thankful he recorded only four interceptions. A player of his talent level doesn't come around often, but he has to learn to effectively harness it if he wants to reach is full potential.

2. Dillon Gabriel, UCF to Oklahoma

Williams' eventual decision to follow Riley to USC set off even more dominoes throughout the sport. One of those dominoes to fall was Dillon Gabriel, a former UCF quarterback who originally announced he was transferring to UCLA, then flipped his pledge as soon as Williams walked out the door. It's not a shock when you consider all the factors that led to Gabriel's decision. For one, he would likely have to sit a year behind Dorian Thompson-Robinson in Westwood. At Oklahoma, he walks into a light quarterback room as the obvious alpha. But just as important in Gabriel's decision was Oklahoma's new offensive coordinator, Jeff Lebby. Lebby was OC at UCF in 2019 and after a two year pit stop at Ole Miss, reunites with his former QB in Norman. It's the perfect match for both sides; Lebby has a gunslinging QB who knows his offense, while Gabriel is back together with the coach that helped him throw for 29 touchdowns as a wide-eyed freshman. With that being said, the first priority for Gabriel will be getting healthy; he played in just three games in 2021 before breaking his clavicle in a loss to Louisville. If he can regain his huge arm and mobility, Gabriel should be ready to once again put up numbers, even as he makes the jump from the Group of Five to Power Five.

3. Jaxson Dart, USC to Ole Miss

Yet another player that was impacted by Riley's arrival on the West Coast was Jaxson Dart. Much like Williams, Dart entered 2021 locked into a backup role behind USC veteran Kedon Slovis. However, Clay Helton's firing combined with Slovis' struggles led to Dart getting more playing time than expected, and the freshman delivered. He flashed natural arm talent, a superb feel for the game, and the type of "swagger" that you simply can't teach. Of course, there were still freshman QB-type mistakes, but you can see the upside when you watch his tape. Dart seemed like he would be a good fit with Riley, but with Williams now in town, he felt it was best to take his talents elsewhere. While he considered Oklahoma and hometown BYU, he eventually decided to join up with Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss. His huge arm should be a perfect fit in Kiffin's offense, and he is joined by a former five-star in the backfield, as tailback Zach Evans comes over from TCU. Don't be surprised if Dart immediately grabs hold of the job and quickly shows why he was such a highly regarded prospect, even in the unforgiving SEC West.

4. Quinn Ewers, Ohio State to Texas

Quinn Ewers is the prime example of the new era of college football. He was the top ranked player in the Class of 2022 before reclassifying and coming to school a year early so that he could earn NIL money at Ohio State. After not taking a single snap in Columbus, Ewers then entered the transfer portal and ended up at Texas, a school he was once again committed to under Tom Herman. It's rare that a player who hasn't taken a collegiate snap gets this much attention, but Ewers is a special case. For one, he has a look not every college quarterback rocks, with an eye-popping blonde mullet flowing down to his shoulders. Even more importantly, he's got a live arm and possesses excellent awareness for his age, even if we haven't seen it at the college level just yet. While he didn't play at OSU, he should still benefit from a year learning the offense and scouts have long raved about his potential. He has a good chance to start right away in Austin for Steve Sarkisian, as incumbent starter Casey Thompson ditched to Nebraska.

5. Cameron Ward, Incarnate Word to Washington State

Incarnate Word, a school of 5,000 nestled in San Antonio, isn't typically viewed as a hot bed of college football talent. However, that changed this past fall with the performance of gunslinging signal-caller Cameron Ward, who lit FCS defenses on fire to the tune of 4,678 yards and 46 touchdowns. You can argue it was against less-than-stellar defenses in the high-scoring Southland, but there's no denying that Ward put up some truly gaudy numbers. Numerous Power Five schools were interested in bringing him on, but Ward opted for Washington State, a program in transition mode after the firing of Nick Rolovich. He joins a long line of big-armed WSU quarterbacks who put up huge numbers, following Gardner Minshew, Anthony Gordon, Connor Halliday, and Jeff Tuel. Obviously, the move from FCS to FBS ball is a major one, but do you know what will help the transition? Incarnate Word head coach Eric Morris took the WSU offensive coordinator job and will now call plays for Ward for the third straight season. Expect plenty of fireworks in Pullman in 2022, particularly with how wide-open the Pac-12 North appears to be.

6. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma to South Carolina

It's truly amazing how fast things can change in a year. This time last year, Spencer Rattler was the odds-on Heisman favorite, hoping for a huge final season in Norman before likely becoming the first QB off the board in the 2022 NFL Draft. Now, Rattler is fresh off a frustrating 2021 that saw him benched and replaced by Williams before he entered the portal. Rattler will team up with former Oklahoma assistant Shane Beamer in South Carolina, a program that surpassed expectations by going 7-6 in Beamer's debut. On paper, it really does seem like an excellent fit. Rattler desperately needed a fresh start and has familiarity with Beamer; South Carolina had to start a grad assistant at quarterback multiple times in '21 and needed to add some star power. In practice? Obviously it's anyone's guess at this point, but Rattler does have talent, even if the 2021 frustrations overshadowed it. At the very least, he's worth the risk for the Gamecocks, who could be the SEC East dark horse in 2022.

7. Kedon Slovis, USC to Pittsburgh

Thrown into the fire as a freshman when J.T. Daniels went down with a season-ending injury, Kedon Slovis responded with a 30-touchdown season, setting the stage for what looked like an illustrious career as the next great 'SC signal-caller. But, he was unable to build on that initial showing; he posted average numbers during the weird, shortened 2020 season that struggled mightily in 2021. Even before Caleb Williams and Lincoln Riley announced their intentions to come to southern California, Slovis seemed like the odd man out, with Jaxson Dart the future for the Trojans. In turn, the Arizona native decided he would head across the country and transfer to Pittsburgh, following the route of another recent USC QB, Max Browne. Slovis steps in to a favorable situation; while OC Mark Whipple is gone, Kenny Pickett's graduation leaves the QB spot at Pitt wide open. Additionally, Slovis will have the chance to work with the reigning Biletnikoff Award winner, Jordan Addison, who should do serious damage with Slovis' huge arm. It seems like a nice fit, but you hope that Slovis can fix some of the things that led to his demise with USC. First off, he'll have to get healthy after an injury-plagued season, but he also seemed to lose confidence during the end with the Trojans. Like a lot of others on this list, the hope is that a change of scenery and new offense can help him regain the potential we saw in 2019.

8. Michael Penix Jr. Indiana to Washington

There were plenty of programs that experienced down 2021 campaigns after success during the wacky 2020 season. Few places was that more evident than at Indiana, which nearly made the Big Ten Championship in 2020 but slipped to the bottom of the league this fall. At the helm of that sinking ship was Michael Penix Jr., who put up two productive years in 2019 and 2020 before being benched this season. Penix finished '19 and '20 with 24 total passing touchdowns and showed fearlessness in his decision-making. On the flip side, his wild decision-making seemed to catch up with him in 2021, as he finished with a 4-7 TD-INT ratio. And, in both of the two previous years, he suffered season-ending injuries that stopped him from reaching his full potential. Penix definitely needed a change of scenery, opting to team up with his former offensive coordinator, Kalen DeBoer, who is now the head man at Washington. Unlike others on this list who may be walking into starting roles from the get-go, Penix walks into a crowded room in Seattle. Veteran Dylan Morris remains in town and former five-star Sam Huard also lurks. He will have to work to earn his spot, but I'm still a believer in Penix and his talent. Now that he's back with DeBoer and playing in an offense that should be fun to watch, I wouldn't be surprised if Penix has a resurgent year.

9. Max Johnson, LSU to Texas A&M

Texas A&M's quarterback situation in the first season post-Kellen Mond was far from ideal. Youngster Haynes King won the job out of camp, then proceeded to fracture his leg in the season's second week against Colorado. Backup Zach Calzada had some massive ups-and-downs and while the Alabama victory will forever cement his legacy in College Station, he didn't seem like the long-term answer. Calzada has since announced he will be transferring inside the SEC West to Auburn, but the Aggies might have found his replacement in Max Johnson, the starter for LSU in 2021. Johnson, the son of former NFL QB Brad and the brother of big-time A&M TE commit Jake, had a solid, but unspectacular season as the Tigers' starting QB. He finished 2021 with 2,815 yards and 27 touchdowns for a team that finished .500. With that being said, A&M seems like a much better fit for the young quarterback. For one, Jimbo Fisher and the overall stability on the A&M coaching staff is a major benefit after all the drama surrounding Ed Orgeron's future in Baton Rouge this fall. Just as important, the offense should be overall better than at LSU, and Johnson will benefit from actually having a running game to support him. The job is not, however, guaranteed; King is expected to return from injury and give him a serious battle, and true freshman Conner Weigman comes to campus with loads of hype. Johnson's previous SEC experience gives him an edge and he has plenty of upside, but will need a strong spring and fall camp to secure his spot on this list.

10. Jack Miller, Ohio State to Florida

Quinn Ewers was the most publicized quarterback transfer of the offseason from Ohio State, but he wasn't the only one. Former four-star prospect Jack Miller also announced he would move on from Columbus but instead of going but instead of going back to his native Arizona, Miller chose Florida as his next destination. It's an intriguing fit; we have no idea what Florida's offense will look like under new head man Billy Napier, and the quarterback situation is a complete mystery. Last year's starter, Emory Jones, had previously announced his intentions to transfer, but remains on the roster. Anthony Richardson flashed serious game-changing potential, but wasn't able to stay healthy in 2021 and will need to refine his fundamentals. That leaves an opportunity for Miller, who is more of a traditional pocket passer than either Jones or Richardson. Miller doesn't have much in-game experience, throwing a total of 14 passes this fall, but scouts remain high on the former Buckeye. This is more of a potential pick than anything else, but I think it could work out. 


Just Missed

Adrian Martinez, Nebraska to Kansas State -- After a stellar freshman season in Lincoln, Adrian Martinez was never able to build on it. He takes a short trek over to Manhattan, where he will compete against Will Howard for the starting job. 

Connor Bazelak, Missouri to Indiana -- Bazelak earned SEC Co-Freshman of the Year honors after flashing upside in 2020, but had a down 2021 campaign, as he struggled with downfield passing and turnovers. After redshirt frosh Brady Cook started the bowl game, Bazelak entered the portal and will now compete for the starting gig at Indiana.

Charlie Brewer, Utah to Liberty -- A multiyear starter for Baylor who is No. 2 on the school's all-time passing list (behind only RG3), Charlie Brewer took a leap of faith and transferred to Utah prior to 2021. It was always an odd pairing and after a few games, Brewer again entered the portal. He now travels to Liberty, where he'll compete with former Tennessee QB Kaidon Salter to replace Malik Willis.

Grant Wells, Marshall to Virginia Tech -- Grant Wells is another former starter coming off a down 2021 season, throwing 13 interceptions to 16 touchdowns. With the coaching staff moving in a different direction, Wells moved on to Virginia Tech, where he'll have a chance to compete right away under new head man Brent Pry.

Chubba Purdy, Florida State to Nebraska -- The younger brother of former ISU starting QB Brock, Chubba Purdy never quite got a chance to show what he could do at Florida State. After 53 attempts in 2020, Purdy's only action this fall was mop-up duty in their smashing of UMass. Purdy is hoping a move to Lincoln, where he'll be the projected starter once Casey Thompson graduates, is the right decision.

Bo Nix, Auburn to Oregon -- Time is a flat circle. Bo Nix began his collegiate career by leading Auburn to a thrilling win over Oregon in 2019 and after two more uneven years on the Plains, is joining the Ducks. It had to be a tough decision for the Auburn legacy, but he gives the new staff a veteran entity.

Casey Thompson, Texas to Nebraska -- Although he initially lost the UT job out of fall camp, Casey Thompson eventually started 10 games and finished with 2,113 yards and 24 touchdowns. With Ewers now the future in Austin, Thompson moves on to Lincoln, where he hopes a marriage with Scott Frost can be the grand finale to his college career.


Thursday, February 3, 2022

Scouting the Contenders 2022: Auburn Tigers

Bruce Pearl, Auburn
As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, scouts their strengths and weaknesses, and takes a best guess on just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We begin with the nation's current No. 1 team, the one-loss Auburn Tigers.


Track Record

  • 21-1 overall, 9-0 SEC 
  • Lone loss 115-109 to No. 17 UConn
  • Notable wins: 62-53 vs. Loyola-Chicago, 70-55 vs. LSU, 81-77 @ Alabama, 80-71 vs. Kentucky
  • Seeking second Final Four appearance in school history (2019)

Scouting Report
Football will probably always rule the day at Auburn, but there's no question that Bruce Pearl and company have revolutionized what the hardwood means on the Plains. Prior to Pearl's arrival following the 2014 campaign, the Tigers list of basketball accomplishments was underwhelming, to say the least. The program hadn't gone to the NCAA Tournament since 2003, hadn't had a player drafted since 2001, and hadn't finished with a winning record since 2009. In a half-decade, Pearl has delivered an SEC regular season title, an SEC Tournament title, a Final Four, and now, perhaps the program's best shot ever at a National Title. Auburn is cemented as the nation's No. 1 team and is riding a 18-game winning streak as they prepare for the second half of SEC play.
Strengths
Pure talent...What's different about this Auburn team? Well, for one, this is the most talented team, top-to-bottom in program history. It begins with Jabari Smith, the highly touted, five-star recruit who is considered one of the favorites to be the top selection in the 2022 NBA Draft. Smith is the type of talent Auburn fans haven't seen since Charles Barkley and Chuck Person were running up and down the court in the 1980s; he's got a versatile offensive game, a smooth jump shot, and the athletic traits you'd like to see from any star in this age of basketball. Smith is the big name, but he's far from the only contributor likely to have an NBA future. North Carolina transfer Walker Kessler is a seven-footer shot-blocker who has seen major improvements during his time with the Tigers, guards K.J. Johnson and Wendell Green are spark-plug guards, and wing Allen Flanigan is one of the SEC's most underrated players, even though he's been hurt for big chunks of the season. In a lot of ways, this lineup has become a traditional modern college basketball roster; it's got a mix of freshmen and veteran transfers, plus a few holdovers from past Tiger teams. It's not a very deep group, but doesn't need to be for this team to be successful night-in, night-out, especially if Kessler and the bigs can stay out of foul trouble..
Mentality/attitude... One of the other big things that jump out at you when watching this Auburn team is the mentality and attitude they play with. It's a hard thing to describe, but you it when you watch this team. They play with a limitless energy and a type of "bulldog" mentality that you can't really teach. Take Johnson, a former Georgia transfer, as a primetime example of this. He's undersized, just six feet, and isn't the quickest or most athletic player on the court. But, he plays incredibly hard, he's a sticky on-ball defender, and isn't afraid of the big moment. The same can be said for Green, or fellow guard Zep Jasper, or any number of other Tigers. They don't necessarily play a pretty brand of basketball, but have a type of confidence and swagger on the hardwood that lends itself to success. You can credit that to Pearl being able to bring these guys to campus, but then working to instill that type of hard-working, gritty attitude each time they play.
Defensive/rebounding prowess... One other thing I really love about this Auburn team is their work defensively, and on the glass. Everybody wants to focus on offense in today's basketball, and for good reason, but this Tiger does the smaller things super well. It's a great rebounding basketball team throughout the roster. Kessler and Smith are their two top rebounders, but guards Wendell Green, Flanigan, and Devan Cambridge are some of the best rebounders anywhere in the country at their respective positions. Don't think this has a large impact on the game? Auburn's victory this weekend over Oklahoma was fueled by a dominant 41-29 rebounding advantage and they snatched up 27 of 33 possible defensive boards. It's one thing to have talent, but not allowing opponents second chance points? These are the types of things that make a difference in March. As for defense, it helps when you have the nation's shot-blocker in Kessler, who is swatting away shots at a historic pace, but he's not the only piece to the puzzle on the defensive end. The guards are all skilled perimeter defenders and Smith's versatility on defense is a massive luxury, as he can realistically guard 1-5. This is also a defense that rotates and communicates as well as any in college basketball, which again, is credit to Pearl. In modern college hoops, where teams full of transfers are the norm, getting a team to be this cohesive and work so well together is a rarity. But when you get it, it can make all the difference between a good team and an elite team.

Weaknesses
Shooting... How can you find weaknesses for a team that's currently 21-1 and riding a historic win streak? It's not super easy, but every basketball team has weaknesses, and that's no different for the Tigers. The most obvious one is three-point shooting; so far Auburn has been able to get by offensively by sheer will power and some crafty offensive players, but this is not a great shooting basketball team. Beyond Smith, who doesn't shoot a crazy amount of threes, they don't have a regular contributor above 40% from downtown, and nobody is even particularly close. These guards just aren't super efficient from the field; give Green, Johnson, and Jasper credit for still finding ways to score, but only Johnson is shooting above 40% from the field. That's a genuine concern because the fact of the matter is, they are going to run into some hot shooting teams down the stretch, whether it's still in the regular season or in the NCAA Tournament. Getting a healthier Flanigan will help take some pressure off these other guards, but the reality is that these guys need to be more efficient on the offensive end to maintain their current hot play.
Free throw shooting... You don't need to be a great free throw shooting team to win it all, and recent NCAA champs bear that out. However, when you get deeper in the season and games get closer, you would like a National Championship favorite to be a little bit better at the stripe than the Tigers. They are fairly mediocre in both free throw percentage (74%) and free throws attempted per game, with 19.8. Those numbers have been helped quite a bit by the fact that Smith and Green both get to the line and shoot a high percentage, but the team as a whole isn't great. Again though, I pause for some context. Auburn is averaging over 80 points per game despite less-than-stellar shooting from the field and free throw line and to be fair, they've improved in this category over the last few weeks. But, when you get to March and the margin for error is so thin when it comes to winning a National Title, it is a potential concern. Virginia in 2019 was the prime example of a team that showed that the margin for going home in the Sweet 16 and winning a National Title can be razor thin, as they won several games by the skin of their teeth.
Program history... I'll admit that this is a relatively unfair "weakness" for this Auburn team, but it is something people consider when choosing a National Championship team. This is not a program with a rich history of winning in March, as their lone Final Four appearance came back in 2019. That doesn't mean that you should automatically pick a Duke or another blue blood if they were to be matched up in the Tournament, but getting over the top and winning the first one is always the hardest (just ask Gonzaga). 

Bottom Line
In a college basketball season where there hasn't been an overwhelming (or two) favorite, Auburn has taken up the mantle as the national frontrunner. Obviously, it's unfamiliar territory for the Tigers, but they haven't been flustered at all by the added pressure and seem to be playing with even more confidence. With that being said, it's a good possibility they're going to lose another game this season, whether it be in the regular or the SEC Tournament; how does this team respond? I'm always curious about the routes different teams take to March Madness. Some face a brutal schedule and may struggle through the regular season, but that seems to make them tougher and ready for the adversity of March. Other teams coast through the regular season, but are able to turn it on against tougher competition. There's no formula that indicates one is better than the other, but is this Auburn team one that battle through the adversity that comes with playing six hard-fought games over three weekends? Auburn hasn't faced a breezy schedule, but it wasn't up to par with other top teams in the non-conference and the SEC has faded during league play (namely LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas). I'm curious if this team hasn't been through enough battles to adjust to the NCAA Tournament. I still think this is a top-tier National Title threat, but the overall favorite? I'm not sold just yet, but if they keep up their hot play, it's hard to imagine this team not entering the Big Dance as the clear favorite.