NCAA Basketball National Championship Prediction 2022

 

Caleb Love, UNC

The 2022 NCAA Basketball Tournament concludes with a battle of blue bloods, both with unique journeys to the final game. Kansas took some lumps during the regular season but is playing their best basketball of the season, fresh off a tremendous showing against Villanova in the Final Four. They're looking to win Bill Self his second National Title in Lawrence, and first since 2008. On the other side, North Carolina had a rollercoaster of a season but has also put it together at the right time. First-year head coach Hubert Davis and the Tar Heels spoiled Coach K's retirement and are looking to bring another Title to Chapel Hill. 

The Jayhawks have excellent roster balance, with playmakers and scorers at nearly every spot. Ochai Agbaji is the headliner as the Big 12 Player of the Year and has followed it up with a great March. Self is superb at getting Agbaji the ball in creative sets, but he's also grown as a shot creator himself. Alongside Agbaji in the backcourt is Remy Martin and Christian Braun. Martin has been playing the best basketball of his career, but needs to regain his rhythm after scoring just three points against Villanova. The Jayhawks don't need him to put up big numbers to win, but he can't turn the ball over the way he has at times in the past. Braun has found himself as a nice complementary scorer and his growth as a defender isn't talked about enough. He's going to play a particularly large role containing UNC's explosive guards. Up front, Kansas features Jalen Wilson and David McCormack, giving them enough size to contend with Armando Bacot. McCormack is a throwback big man who had 25 points against Villanova, but he has to stay out of foul trouble. Both Mark Williams and Theo John got in foul trouble quick against Bacot and the Tar Heels in the semifinal, so keeping McCormack on the floor will be of utmost importance for Self and the Jayhawks. It's an offense with plenty of weapons, but how they fare on the defensive end may determine whether they're able to come away as National Champs. Duke put up plenty of points, but they couldn't hang with UNC the other way; whether KU fares better defensively remains to be seen.

After a frustrating season, UNC is playing with a lot of confidence and poise. They've responded on the sport's largest stage for a number of reasons. For one, Davis seems to be coming into his own as a head coach after serving as a longtime assistant. Even more important has been the growth of the guards, Caleb Love, R.J. Davis, and Leaky Black. The trio had was inconsistent all season but have been the team's top playmakers in the Big Dance. Love in particular has been the real leader for the team and has proven he can hit the big shots. After going for 30 against UCLA in the Sweet 16, he went for 28 against Duke and sunk the program's primary foe. In addition to the guards, Bacot and former Oklahoma transfer Brady Manek have been excellent. Bacot is a double-double machine who outclassed both of Duke's bigs and has an NBA future. He's somewhat limited of what he can do offensively, but I don't have any doubt that he can match up well against McCormack. Manek is a tough cover who tortured Kansas for years while playing in the Big 12. Despite having the size to bang down low, Manek is a great shooter who moves very well without the ball. You would think Kansas will use Jalen Wilson to cover him most of the time, but it's going to be a tough 40 minutes. He's become one of the sport's biggest names with his play during March and is looking to end his impressive collegiate career with a National Title. What's even more amazing about this Tar Heel team is that they're playing so well without one of their top players, former Marquette transfer Dawson Garcia. Garcia has been away from the program for months now and with all due respect to him, that's allowed the other guards to really shine through. It's allowed guys like Puff Johnson to see minutes, a guy who could be a breakout candidate next winter.

I've said for years that Kansas is due another National Title, and they were my runner-up pick prior to the Tournament. Self is too good of a coach and the program has been too good for too long not to add another trophy to their collection. They run into an absolute buzz saw in UNC, but if they can play the way they did against Villanova, they still have a chance to win. With all that being said, this is starting to feel like North Carolina's year. They've handled every team they've seen this March Madness and have the type of roster that can overwhelm opponents. Kansas is a great basketball team but with the way the Heels are playing, I'm thinking they're the smarter selection.

North Carolina by five

2022 Final Four Picks

Collin Gillespie, Villanova

1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. 2 Villanova Wildcats

Two of the sport's most consistent programs collide in the opening game of the Final Four, with Kansas looking to avenge their most recent losses in the series, one in the Final Four of 2018 and back in the Elite Eight of 2016. The Jayhawks took their lumps on the season, but played good enough basketball to earn a top seed and battle their way to New Orleans. It's a team that isn't loaded with the future NBA stars that are a common occurrence in Lawrence, but that of course doesn't mean the Jayhawks aren't talented. Big 12 Player of the Year Ochai Agbaji has put together a special senior season and is looking to end his illustrated KU career with a National Title. The offense runs through Agbaji; he's an elite iso scorer who's rounded out his offensive game. He's always been able to get to the rim, but his growth as a shot creator and three-point shooter has made him a scary offensive weapon. He'll command the majority of Villanova's attention, but the play of guards Remy Martin and Christian Braun has been just as important to the Jayhawks over the March run. Martin is a playmaker in every sense of the word; he'll make some maddening plays, but then respond with a string of dazzling possessions. He had an up-and-down season with the Jayhawks but has come into his own in the NCAA Tournament, winning Most Outstanding Player of the Midwest Region. Braun finished just behind Agbaji in points per game on the season and plays an important role as the team's chief floor-spacer. With that being said, Braun has become so much more, as an underrated distributor and solid defender. This Kansas team isn't as large in the frontcourt as past Bill Self teams, although David McCormack is a traditional big. I'll be curious to see what type of role McCormack plays in this game. He's had a solid year but KU doesn't exactly lean on him offensively. Self has occasionally looked to him when they need a bucket underneath, but expect Villanova to crash the paint and force the Jayhawks away from the basket in this one.

Villanova didn't win a share of the Big East Title for the first time since 2017-2018, but the Wildcats have put it together in March. However, 'Nova suffered a substantial loss in the Elite Eight when Justin Moore tore his Achilles, leaving them without one of their best players. Moore was second on the team in points per game and is an impressive rebounder for his position, robbing us of a fun battle between him and either Braun or Agbaji. Yet, I don't suspect Jay Wright to change his game plan too much in this one; expect star guard Collin Gillespie to handle the ball, 'Nova to space the court, and then attack the hoop and play downhill. This isn't as pretty of an offense as past Villanova teams have run, but Gillespie keeps things flowing and is always ready to hit a big shot. This roster, more than any other Wright-coached team, embraces position-less basketball. Everybody on this roster can play different spots on the floor and all of them will be asked to do different things. While not having Moore out there will hurt, the Wildcats will still boast Gillespie and Caleb Daniels in the backcourt, while the frontcourt is led by Eric Dixon, Jermaine Samuels, and Brandon Slater. I'm actually a huge fan of this frontline trio. They aren't the flashiest group, but play swarming defense and are efficient scorers. They don't have an overwhelming size advantage over Kansas, but I still suspect this group to get opportunities in the paint. One factor I'm watching with the absence of Moore is the lack of depth on this Villanova team. Few teams in college basketball go 9-10 guys deep anymore and even with a healthy Moore, the Wildcats only ran a 6-7 man rotation. That hasn't hurt them up to this point but this late in the Tournament against a good Kansas team, it's something to monitor.

Kansas was my runner-up pick prior to the tip-off of the NCAA Tournament and they beat several tough foes en route to a Final Four berth. There's a lot of reasons to think this might be their year. For one, Self and the program haven't won a National Title in a decade-and-a-half and they've been too consistent not to add another soon, plus it's a well-rounded group playing an injured Villanova team. But, something tells me all the people rushing to pick KU because of the Moore injury are overreacting. That's not to discount Moore, but this Wildcats team has been arguably the most impressive team of this entire Big Dance and Wright has consistently proven himself as a coach on the largest stage. This selection isn't very analytical or detail-oriented, but just the feeling I get, that 'Nova will respond to the Moore injury and be even tougher, once again knocking the Jayhawks out of the Tournament.

Villanova by five

2 Duke Blue Devils vs. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels

The Duke and North Carolina rivalry is the lifeblood of college basketball. From the legendary coaches, to the iconic players, to the passion of the fans, to the different shades of blue. As if there wasn't enough storylines and hate between the two, they now collide for the first time ever in the NCAA Tournament, with a spot in the National Championship on the line. Add to that the fact that this is Coach K's last run after an illustrious coaching career and this may go down as one of the most hyped college basketball games of all-time.

Duke is all about their trio of freshmen sensations; Paolo Banchero, Trevor Keels, and A.J. Griffin. Keels is the ball-handler and sticky defender, Griffin is the shooter, while Banchero is the do-everything forward set to be a top selection in the 2022 NBA Draft. Coach K and staff have brought in many elite groups of freshmen over the years, but this particular one plays off each other so well and has their own strengths. Of course, it does help that there is veteran leadership on this team, players who often get lost in the shuffle but are crucial contributors, as well. Big man Mark Williams is the defensive anchor who will match up against Armando Bacot in the post, while Wendell Moore and Jeremy Roach help facilitate the offense and are potent in transition. The blend of stud freshmen and veterans is vitally important; while Williams and Roach don't have NCAA Tournament experience, they've still played in enough big games to understand this moment and live up to it. In the past, some of the younger Duke teams haven't been able to perform on the biggest stage, but this team is ready and able to do it. They've felt an insane amount of pressure all season, but don't expect them to fold now. 

North Carolina had a rough regular season before turning it on at the right time. After earning an 8 seed, they blew out Marquette, survived against the reigning National Champion Baylor Bears, and then handled UCLA and "Cinderella" Saint Peter's. This is the third UNC team to reach the Final Four since 2016, but easily their most improbable. They slumped severely on numerous times during the season and are breaking in a new head coach in Hubert Davis, yet are playing tremendous basketball. It helps that Brady Manek, a former Oklahoma transfer who looks and plays similar to Larry Bird, has been absolutely unstoppable this Tournament. He's averaging 21.5 points per game despite missing a big chunk of the Baylor game and has fueled the Tar Heel offense. It's not just Manek's scoring, but his presence on the floor demands the defense's attention. With him out there, he opens up lanes for Caleb Love and R.J. Davis and usually is able to pull a bigger defender out to the perimeter with him, giving Bacot more space underneath. In addition to Manek, Love, Davis and Leaky Black all deserve a bunch of credit for their play during this run. This trio has taken a lot of criticism during their UNC careers, but they've responded when the Heels have needed them most. Love in particular has really impressed me; he had a big game against Marquette but then struggled against Baylor, turning the ball over six times. The fact that he was able to come back and drop 30 to fuel the victory against UCLA says a lot about his character. He's a real problem for a Duke team that doesn't have a guard that matches up super well against him. He's quicker than Keels and bigger than Roach, which is why he went for 22 the last time he played the Blue Devils. As important as all those pieces are, I still think Bacot is the key. He's been tremendous all season and has followed it up with a great NCAA Tournament appearance, but he hasn't played many teams with an elite defensive big like Williams. If he struggles, I'm not sure how many easy buckets UNC is going to be able to get in this game, especially with how fierce the Blue Devils can be defending the perimeter.

I've doubted UNC most of this season and into this Tournament but to their credit, they've responded with a truly impressive run. With that being said, this feels like Duke's time to me. Not because the refs are going to favor Coach K and the Blue Devils, or any other conspiracy. They're simply a better basketball team and match up pretty well against UNC, even if they lost in the two team's previous meeting. Perhaps that should provide them the extra bit of motivation they need to overcome the flaming hot Heels here.

Duke by eight

2022 March Madness Sweet 16 Picks: East, Midwest Regions

 

Trevion Williams, Purdue

East Region

15 Saint Peter's Peacocks vs. 3 Purdue Boilermakers (Philadelphia)

Cinderella stories are a major aspect of the thrills of March Madness and they don't get much crazier than Saint Peter's. A small, private school in New Jersey, Saint Peter's shocked the college basketball world (and decimated my bracket) by shocking Kentucky in the first round, then followed it up by beating a strong Murray State in the second. The Peacocks look to add another school to their victim list as they battle Purdue, who impressed in their win over Texas last weekend. It's obviously a tough matchup for the Peacocks; not only do they have to contend with Purdue's size, but will have to find a way to keep up with Jaden Ivey, whose impressive play has continued into March. Saint Peter's does have an interesting cast of characters that haven't shied away from any opponent so far, so they won't be intimidated in Philadelphia. Junior Daryl Banks III was the leading scorer in the regular season and went for 27 against Kentucky, but others like K.C. Ndefo and Doug Edert have stepped up in a big way. Ndefo is the heart-and-soul of the team, a do-it-all forward who can score, rebound, and defend. He averages nearly three blocks per game and will be counted on to be the team's defensive anchor. Whether coach Shaheen Holloway chooses to use him as a post defender against one of the bigs, or on the perimeter against Ivey, he'll see a bunch of minutes. Edert has become a cult hero thanks to his sharpshooting and interesting look, but his role will also be vital, as he'll have to match Purdue's abundance of shooters. While the Peacocks have a lovable cast, it pales in comparison to the weapons Matt Painter will throw at them. Zach Edey and Trevion Williams are a load to handle underneath, Ivey is an unquestioned superstar, and Sasha Stefanovic's shooting can be a real difference-maker. Purdue is also an incredibly deep team, with names like Ethan Morton and Caleb Furst able to come in and make plays off the bench. With all due respect to Saint Peter's, the second units aren't even in the same stratosphere. Frankly, neither are the starting lineups, but that doesn't mean I expect the Peacocks to fold. This team is going to battle for all forty minutes, but they simply don't have the resources necessary to keep this thing rolling. 

Purdue by twelve

8 UNC Tar Heels vs. 4 UCLA Bruins (Philadelphia)

It's been a rollercoaster of a debut season for Hubert Davis at UNC, but the Heels are still alive on the Tournament's second weekend after taking down Baylor and Marquette last week. At the core of UNC's run has been veteran Brady Manek, who went for 28 against Marquette and had 26 against Baylor before being ejected for a controversial flagrant foul. Manek has not only provided the scoring punch the Heels have missed all season, his presence on the court has opened up other areas of offense for UNC and his leadership has galvanized the team. This feels like it could be a special ending to a tremendous career for the forward, who began his career at Oklahoma and played with Trae Young. In addition to Manek, Armando Bacot continues to be a force down low and Caleb Love seems to have figured it out leading the offense after an up-and-down campaign. That trio should provide UNC with enough offense to win the game, but is the Heel defense up to the task? They're facing a UCLA team with a staggering collection of scorers, from Johnny Juzang, to Tyger Campbell, to youngster Peyton Watson. Juzang has carried over his impressive play from last March, Campbell is the perfect collegiate point guard, and Watson has taken on a larger role. The big question for UCLA is all about forward Jaime Jaquez, who has been tremendous all season but has dealt with nagging ankle problems. He had an awkward-looking turned ankle in the win over Saint Mary's which has put his future into question, but rumor is that he's battling through it. Not having Jaquez at 100 percent clearly hits the Bruins, but they still have enough offensively. On the other end, Myles Johnson has become an elite rim protector for the Bruins, while veteran Cody Riley is another holdover from the Final Four team a season ago. This game should be defined in a lot of ways by the guards with how hot both teams are shooting, but I actually think the play in the paint will be the deciding factor. Neither team really runs their offense through the post, but between two evenly matched foes, the battle on the block can be the thing that puts one team over the edge. With all due respect to Bacot, Johnson and Riley are a much better defensive combo and the Bruins have more size overall. While they still have work to do to return to their second consecutive Final Four, I think they end UNC's run here, in the battle of the "blue bloods."

UCLA by five

Midwest Region

1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. 4 Providence Friars (Chicago)

All season and leading into March, much has been made about Providence and their ability to win close games. No team in college basketball this year made a living winning games by the skin of their teeth quite like the Friars, with 16 wins by single-digit margins. There seemed to be quite a bit of public opinion out there that the luck had to die at some point, especially with Providence opening the NCAA Tournament against a flaming hot South Dakota State squad. Yet, the Friars are still alive and looking to make their first Elite Eight since 1997 under coach Pete Gillen. They'll have to overcome Kansas to do it, a team that has had a strong season, but is certainly not unbeatable. Expect the Friars to spread things out and isolate Nate Watson against David McCormack in the post, with their collection of guards attacking the Jayhawks off the bounce. Watson has been Providence's most consistent offensive weapon and will have opportunities against McCormack, who has been prone to foul trouble throughout his KU career. Al Durham, Jared Bynum, and A.J. Reeves are a gritty group of guards for the Friars who do match up well against Kansas, but to pull off an upset the shooting has to arrive at some point. Bynum shoots at a fairly decent clip but doesn't pull a lot of them, which could be an issue against a Kansas team that has a plethora of shooters, led by Christian Braun. With that being said, Braun is known as a sharpshooter, but his overall offensive growth has been one of the most underrated storylines of the college basketball season. He can run rim-to-rim, finish at the rim, and his ability to create shots for himself wasn't there early in his career. Braun alone could be the difference-maker, but expect KU to also be led by explosive guard Remy Martin and Big 12 Player of the Year Ochai Agbaji. Providence is going to play a tough and physical brand of basketball; will Kansas fold, or rise up to the challenge? It's really a mystery. Past Bill Self teams have folded in March, but I think this is a different type of team. With their edge in talent, if they can match Providence and their intensity, I think they come out on top.

Kansas by six

10 Miami Hurricanes vs. 11 Iowa State Cyclones (Chicago)

Outside of Ames and Coral Gables, I don't think there were many people predicting Iowa State-Miami meeting with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line. Yet here we are, with one of the two set to move to the Midwest Regional Finals. Iowa State went 7-11 in Big 12 play but have been terrific away from the conference, including victories over LSU and Wisconsin en route to the Sweet 16. The key has been their stingy defense; they've slowed down the game and forced opponents into difficult shots. Offensively, guards Tyrese Hunter and Gabe Kalscheur pace the Cyclones, while Izaiah Brockington is looking to get back on track after a poor shooting night against the Badgers. Hunter also struggled against the Badgers, but Kalscheur is the real X-factor. When he's on, the Cyclones are a significantly more dangerous team but he's had a knack for being streaky. The Iowa State defense doesn't block a lot of shots, but they will get their hands in passing lanes, which is going to require Miami to play smarter in this one. Luckily, veteran guard Charlie Moore is one of the best floor generals anywhere in college basketball. On his third school, Moore is the type of savvy leader you want in March and he's looking to end his lengthy college basketball career in a big way. In addition to Moore, the Hurricanes feature an abundance of dynamic guards, including Isaiah Wong, Kameron McGusty, and Jordan Miller. Iowa State will have the advantage in size, but containing the 'Canes guards over forty minutes is a tall task. 

Miami by three

2022 March Madness Sweet 16 Picks: West, South Regions

Paolo Banchero, Duke

 

West Region

1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks (San Francisco)

After getting all they could handle from Memphis in the second round, No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga is hoping for smoother sailing as they embark on the NCAA Tournament's second weekend. They'll face off with the fourth-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks, who didn't look dominant in their two victories but still managed to fend off 13-seed Vermont and 12-seed New Mexico State. From the opening tip, expect a furious pace to this game; both these teams have excellent guards and the Bulldogs play at a blistering tempo. The Razorbacks are led by a backcourt that is highlighted by top scorer J.D. Notae, but also includes Chris Lykes, Au'Diese Toney, Stanley Umude, and Devo Davis. None are particularly elite shooters, although Umude hits about 38% from three, but they instead look for offense in transition and attacking the rim. It's a strategy that has worked well on the season, but how successful is it going to be against a Gonzaga frontline that includes Chet Holmgren? You have to think Arkansas is going to want to get Holmgren in foul trouble early and work from there, but the freshman is fairly disciplined on the defensive end for his age. The Bulldogs should be able to match the Arkansas backcourt in terms of skill, although they don't quite have the depth, unless freshmen Nolan Hickman and Hunter Sallis continue to see their roles expand. Andrew Nembhard is one of the best floor generals anywhere in the nation, and he's flanked by two capable veterans in Rasir Bolton and Julian Strawther. However, the clear advantage the Bulldogs possess over the Razorbacks? Size down low. It's not just Holmgren, but also Drew Timme and Anton Watson. Timme was the clear best player on the floor in the win against Memphis and is a matchup nightmare, while Watson and Holmgren have different skill sets but are capable complementary pieces offensively. Arkansas can counter with Jaylin Williams, who has had a breakout year on the block, but he's really the only true "big" that plays regular minutes for this team. Watching 7'3" behemoth Connor Vanover go up against Holmgren and company would have been a real treat, but Vanover hasn't played since mid-January and won't be suiting up for this one. I'm sure Eric Musselman will be creative with how he chooses to shield this potential weakness, but it's such a glaring advantage for Gonzaga it's hard to ignore. Sure, in a fast-paced game that is played the whole court and rarely in the halfcourt, Arkansas can compete. But, picking them over the 'Zags seems like unwise territory to wade into at this point.

Gonzaga by ten

2 Duke Blue Devils vs. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (San Francisco)

One of the best parts of March Madness is seeing two polar opposites compete on the same court. Beyond the obvious "David vs. Goliath" narratives when a top seed plays a high seed, there's often matchups behind programs that are vastly different, or play a completely different brand of basketball. Such is the case in this game between Duke and Texas Tech. On one side, you have one of college basketball's blue blood programs, led by a legendary head coach and trio of star freshmen. On the other, you have a Texas Tech program that spent years in basketball purgatory before a recent run of success, coached by a 65-year old on just his second Division I head coaching gig and a host of older players, most of whom are transfers. It's a true clash of program identities, and they also play quite different. Duke is going to want to play up-tempo and score in a hurry. They have a do-it-all low post presence in Paolo Banchero, a sharpshooter in A.J. Griffin, and Trevor Keels, who looks more like a linebacker than guard. There are supporting veterans on the team, but this is a team defined by their freshmen trio; where they go, so do the Blue Devils. When the trio is playing well, this is probably the best team in the nation. When they're not, the offense is incredibly stagnant and Duke doesn't have the pieces defensively to come out on top. Texas Tech leans heavily on an elite defense and an offense that gets the vast majority of their points at the rim. Don't expect much three-pointers to be attempted from the Red Raiders, they're looking to play downhill and attack the basket. They certainly don't have the big name stars the Blue Devils have, although Bryson Williams, Terrance Shannon Jr., and Kevin Obanor have proven to be a capable threesome. I do wonder how successful this offensive strategy is going to be against Duke. While the Blue Devils aren't a great defensive team they do have size down low and an elite shot-blocker in Mark Williams. This is not going to be a team that Tech is able to beat into submission as they've become accustomed to in the Big 12. No, I actually think this is a bad matchup for the Red Raiders, who I originally picked to come out of the West Region. They didn't look reassuring in a close win over Notre Dame and you could argue they got away with a bunch of missed foul calls. That is not going to be the case against Coach K and Duke, who should be able to match their physicality and also get to the line. I still think it should be a good one, but the Gonzaga-Duke rematch has been building for awhile and who am I to pick against it?

Duke by five

South Region

2 Villanova Wildcats vs. 11 Michigan Wolverines (San Antonio)

It's hard to consider a program like Michigan a "Cinderella," but there's no denying the team fits the billing up to this point. They barely made it into the Field of 68 before upsetting a rock-solid Colorado State team, then toppling a Final Four favorite in Tennessee. They're hoping to keep on rolling against two-seed Villanova in a rematch of the 2018 National Championship Game. While past Jay Wright-coached Villanova teams have become known for eloquent, fun-to-watch offenses, this group doesn't quite fit. It's a slow-paced offense that is engineered mainly by lead guard Collin Gillespie backing down defenders and dishing out or getting the ball to the rim. It's been effective, there's not much denying, but this Wildcat team isn't going to be mistaken for some of the past diverse and versatile teams Wright has led. Gillespie will keep things churning, but it's always a mystery who will step up alongside him. Caleb Daniels and Justin Moore have been the most consistent offensive weapons, but keep an eye on Brandon Slater, who has been awfully quiet in the Tournament so far but has the skill set to cause the Michigan defense some headaches. The Wolverines have been able to win two games thanks in large part to the play of Eli Brooks and Hunter Dickinson, but also improved play from youngsters like Caleb Houstan and Frankie Collins. Collins is going to be a fascinating watch; he had a tremendous showing against Colorado State but will see his role diminished now that DeVante' Jones is fully healthy. Even so, I think Michigan is going to need someone to pick up the pace and provide some energy to this offense, whether it's off the bench or not. He can do that, and this Michigan offense is going to need it. While they've been shooting much better over the last several weeks than most of the season, it's still not a great offensive team. Dickinson can only do so much on the block and Brooks has a versatile game, but the Wolverines are still going to need more help from their supporting cast against a strong Villanova defense. You've got to believe that alone, along with Gillespie's presence, makes 'Nova the smarter pick here. Yet, something tells me Michigan's run is not over just yet. The question on this team has never been talent, but whether it can all come together right. It seems to be gelling together at the right time and while Villanova is a good basketball team, they're definitely beatable. I like Juwan Howard and the Wolverines to keep it going and reach their second straight Elite Eight.

Michigan by three

1 Arizona Wildcats vs. 5 Houston Cougars (San Antonio)

Much like Gonzaga, Arizona got all they could handle from TCU in the second round and now face a perilous test in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats deserve credit for holding off the Horned Frogs no matter what you think about the potential missed call in the closing seconds, but Houston is quite the test. Kelvin Sampson's team went to the Final Four just last year and followed it up with another season of AAC superiority. In order to move on to the Elite Eight, Arizona will once again need magic from Pac-12 Player of the Year Bennedict Mathurin. Mathurin is a slippery scorer whose mix of athleticism and shooting touch makes him a real pain for defenders. He's a tough matchup, even for a Houston team with a lot of capable defenders in their backcourt. In addition to Mathurin, Arizona features an imposing big on the block in Christian Koloko, a talented swingman in Azuolas Tubelis, and a tremendous shooter in Kerr Kriisa. Koloko had a big game in the second round and has been improving each every game, but the X-factor is Kriisa. He suffered a grotesque-looking sprained ankle in the Pac-12 Tournament and hasn't been 100 percent since. He played fine in the win over TCU, but the Wildcats really need his leadership, ball handling, and shooting if they want to continue on their run. As for Houston, the Cougars deserve a bunch of credit for advancing to the second weekend despite losing arguably their two best players, Tramon Mark and Marcus Sasser. Former Texas Tech transfer Kyler Edwards has stepped up in a huge way, as has Jamal Shead, who went for 18 in the win over Illinois. The Cougars have the size to counter Arizona with Fabian White and Josh Carlton underneath, and they play a tough, hard-nosed brand of basketball that's tough even if you're prepared for it. With all that being said, I think this is where Houston's run comes to an end. They deserve all the credit for getting a good Illinois team undermanned, but that was their first NCAA Tournament win against a single-digit seed in four decades (they didn't beat one on their Final Four run last spring). Doing that two games in a row, against an Arizona team that should be well-prepped and ready for a fight, is too much for the Cougars.

Arizona by six

Bracket Analysis: South Region

 

Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona

The Top Seed: Arizona Wildcats

Arizona has long been one of college basketball's powers on the West Coast, but it was clear they needed a change of pace under Sean Miller, as the program had slipped to mediocre in an underwhelming Pac-12. Enter long-time Gonzaga assistant Tommy Lloyd, who has come on and made a splash, guiding the Wildcats to a No. 1 seed and Pac-12 crown. Does this team have the ingredients to make Arizona's first Final Four appearance in two decades? Bennedict Mathurin is one of the funnest players to watch anywhere in college basketball and an explosive scorer, and he's helped by a supporting cast that includes Azuolas Tubelis, Kerr Kriisa, and Christian Koloko. Lloyd also brought big Oumar Ballo with him from Gonzaga, an elite rim protector who averages over three blocks per 40 minutes. There's more than enough weapons for this offense to put up points, but it's important to note that Kriisa, the team's top passer and probably their best shooter, is banged up. He sprained his ankle on the run to the Pac-12 Championship Game and his status for the Big Dance is a major question mark. With all due respect to backup Justin Kier, the offense takes a significant step back without Kriisa. Even so, the Wildcats still have a nice potential route to the Final Four, even though the two and three seeds, Villanova and Tennessee, are no slouches. I'm not a fan of either Seton Hall or TCU pulling an upset in the second round and both Houston and Illinois are on upset watch below them. Arizona should roll into the second weekend even if Kriisa isn't 100 percent, and they're well-coached and balanced enough to win the entire region.

The Cinderella Possibility: Chattanooga Mocs

Frankly, the Selection Committee's decision to match Illinois up against Loyola-Chicago in last season's NCAA Tournament completely screwed the Illini. How did they return the favor this year? By matching them up against a serious "Cinderella" threat in Southern Conference Champion Chattanooga. The Mocs won the Southern Championship Game on a buzzer beater against Furman, but this is no team of luck. They have legit power conference-level talent in this lineup, spearheaded by high-scoring guard Malachi Smith and big Silvio De Sousa. Smith averaged 20.1 points per game on the year and is the type of fearless lead guard that can have a breakthrough March Madness performance. De Sousa, on the other hand, began his career at Kansas but has proven to be a valuable low-post presence for the Mocs. I'm fascinated to watch him match up against Kofi Cockburn in the first round; these are two gigantic big men with excellent touch around the rim. You really hope that it doesn't become a whistle show and decided by who gets in foul trouble first. If Chattanooga can find a way to overcome the Illini, they match up well with either Houston or UAB in Round Two, opening the door for them to roll into the second weekend.

Don't Forget About: Michigan Wolverines

Michigan entered the season as a Top 10 team and a Big Ten frontrunner, but Juwan Howard's club struggled through a frustrating season. The highly touted freshmen took awhile to acclimate, DeVante' Jones wasn't quite the high impact transfer we thought he would be, and the veteran leadership wasn't quite what hoped. The result was a 17-14 record that included more than a few puzzling losses, but the Wolverines were still able to do just enough down the stretch in Big Ten play to earn a Tournament bid. While you can make the argument they should have been playing in a "First Four" and not Indiana, Michigan earned the 11 spot and goes up against a Colorado State program making their first appearance in a decade. With all due respect to a quality Rams team, the Wolverines are the much more talented team, even with Jones slated to miss the game. In fact, you could make an argument UM might be even more dangerous with Jones on the bench, as freshman Frankie Collins has shown flashes all season and has the potential to have a real coming out party. Even though they've been maddening all season, I like Michigan's chances to advance past Round One and once there, you never know. This has been a program that has routinely proven they can conjure up some March luck and with Howard back on the floor, it could be the motivator they need to finally put things all together.

The Storyline Team: Tennessee Volunteers

It's not often you hear significant uproar when a team receives a three seed instead of a two. Most of that feedback is reserved for NCAA Tournament snubs or the No. 1 seed discussion, but there was an audible gasp from the college basketball community when they saw the SEC Tournament Champion Tennessee Volunteers get a three next to their name. It's understandable why there is confusion about their seeding; the Vols were a fringe Top 10 team prior to the SEC Tournament and then went on an impressive run to secure the SEC Title, including beating a current No. 2, Kentucky, in the Championship. They should have been a two, yes, but now that they've been relegated to the three line, it's up to them to prove the Selection Committee wrong. I think they have a chance to do so; they have an explosive backcourt all with varying strengths, the type of group you want to make a run. They have experience throughout their roster, an efficient frontcourt, and a superb head coach in Rick Barnes. If there is one thing standing in their way, it's their own history. Neither Tennessee nor Barnes has had much recent March success to point to, which always makes you a bit wary this time of year. With that being said, remember how the same thing was said about Villanova through much of the early to mid-2010s? Jay Wright's program responded by winning a pair of National Titles in a three-year span. Why can't Tennessee do the same?

Welcome to the Dance!: Longwood Lancers

It's always a great story learning about some of these smaller schools getting the opportunity to shine on college basketball's biggest stage. Every year, there are one or two programs that typically get their first shot in the Big Dance. This year there are two in the same region in Bryant and Longwood, albeit Bryant lost in the "First Four" at the time of publishing. Longwood is still alive and looking for a shot to take down the three-seeded Tennessee Volunteers. The Lancers have appeared in several NCAA Tournaments at lower divisions, but are eager to show their stuff for the first time in Division I. Obviously, they're a long shot to do any damage this March, but this team isn't a complete nobody either. They went 15-1 in Big South play and beat a respectable Winthrop team by 21 in the Championship Game. Perhaps their NCAA Tournament trip may not be so short after all.

Picking the South

First Round

1 Arizona over 16 Wright State ... Wright State got their first NCAA Tournament win of all-time when they beat Bryant in the "First Four." They won't be getting another one this year.

9 TCU over 8 Seton Hall ... Two fairly evenly matched teams in my mind, but Jamie Dixon is one of my favorite coaches in college basketball, helping get the Frogs over the top.

12 UAB over 5 Houston ... Kelvin Sampson's team won't be returning to the Final Four this season, they get caught by Andy Kennedy and his star, Jordan "Jelly" Walker.

4 Illinois over 13 Chattanooga ... The Mocs do have a chance to make a run if they get past the Illini, but I'm not just sure they have enough scoring to hang with Cockburn, Andre Curbelo, and Trent Frazier.

11 Michigan over 6 Colorado State ... Niko Medved has a legitimate Sweet 16 contender in Colorado State, but Frankie Collins provides the spark UM needs to win.

3 Tennessee over 14 Longwood ... Longwood guard Justin Hill is vastly underrated, the team's top scorer and an excellent distributor. But him alone won't be able to get the Lancers past Barnes and Tennessee.

10 Loyola-Chicago over 7 Ohio State ... People seem to be undervaluing an Ohio State team that has a regular Top 25 team until a cold recent stretch, but this Ramblers team is just so tough and well-coached.

2 Villanova over 15 Delaware ... In a battle of Northeast foes, the Blue Hens simply have no answer for Collin Gillespie and company.

Second Round

1 Arizona over 9 TCU ... TCU proved they can take down top dogs by shocking Kansas earlier this season, but they're no match for Bennedict Mathurin and the 'Cats.

4 Illinois over 12 UAB ... Can the Blazers go on a Cinderella run? Perhaps, but I think Brad Underwood secures his first Sweet 16 trip with the Illini.

3 Tennessee over 11 Michigan ... The Wolverines aren't your typical 11-seed, but the Volunteers keep their hot streak alive here.

2 Villanova over 10 Loyola-Chicago ... A potential hazard spot for Villanova, but they win in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Sweet 16

1 Arizona over 4 Illinois ... Arizona beat Illinois earlier in the season and while the Illini will be scheming for vengeance, I like the Wildcats to keep on rolling.

3 Tennessee over 2 Villanova ... Villanova has one elite guard in Gillespie, but Tennessee's abundance of weapons helps them secure the victory.

Elite Eight

3 Tennessee over 1 Arizona ... Am I buying too much into the Tennessee hype? Possibly, but this team has legit Final Four talent and they match up well against the higher seeds in the South Region.

South Region Champs: 3 Tennessee Volunteers

2022 March Madness Bracket Analysis: East Region

Johnny Juzang, UCLA

The Top Seed: Baylor Bears

With several key pieces, namely Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler, off to the NBA over the offseason, many people expected a significant step back for the defending National Champion Baylor Bears. Instead, head coach Scott Drew continues to work his magic in Waco, winning 26 games and earning a share of the Big 12 Title. Certainly, it's difficult to compare this year's group to last year's, but there is a lot to like. James Akinjo, Adam Flagler, and Kendall Brown lead a dynamic backcourt and up do-it-all Matthew Mayer remains one of the most under-appreciated players in college basketball. With that being said, this Baylor team is without two key cogs who have played important roles the last few years: L.J. Cryer and Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchou. Tchamwa-Tchatchou tore his ACL and is done for the year, but Cryer's status is one of the greatest mysteries in this entire NCAA Tournament. He's been out for the past six weeks, but there still is a chance he returns. If he does, the Bears get back their top scorer, who is also a deadeye shooter from three. Tchamwa-Tchatchou is a huge loss; if there is a glaring weakness on this Baylor team, it's their lack of depth in the frontcourt. While Flo Thamba and Jeremy Sochan have stepped up in a big way, this is a team that could realistically be bullied by several teams in this region. They should still roll past MEAC Champ Norfolk State in Round One and the 8/9 matchup with either UNC or Marquette is also favorable, but things get tricky after that. Drew has proven he can work some magic and Akinjo, Flagler, and Mayer have proven they can handle the load, but it's hard to imagine this team making another Final Four run with so many injury questions.

Don't Forget About: UCLA Bruins

After a heartbreaking loss to Gonzaga in last season's Final Four, UCLA was a popular preseason National Title selection. They returned nearly everyone from last year's group and also added in a pair of big-name pieces in Rutgers transfer Myles Johnson and highly-touted freshman Peyton Watson. While it's hard to call any team that earned a Top 4 seed a disappointment, the Bruins haven't been able to quite reach those expectations. UCLA has won several big games over Villanova, Marquette, and Arizona, but have also looked flat in some maddening losses to mediocre Pac-12 foes. Those losses have left the Bruins somewhat underrated as they return to the NCAA Tournament. People seem to forget how many offensive weapons are on this roster; Johnny Juzang was one of the stars of last March and is a fearless shotmaker, Jaime Jaquez is a load to handle, Tyger Campbell is the pace-setter at point guard, and Jules Bernard can take over games when needed. The Bruins haven't shot the ball as well as expected this season, but they aren't going to be an easy out against anyone and last year's run proved without a doubt that this group can make a deep run. Even at the four spot, I think UCLA has as good of a chance as anyone to make it out of this region and return to the Final Four.

The Cinderella Possibility: Virginia Tech Hokies

It's difficult to categorize any team from a power conference as a true "Cinderella" but as an 11-seed who needed a run in the ACC Tournament to secure an automatic qualifier, Virginia Tech still fits the billing. Mike Young's team was fairly average for most of the season, going 19-12 overall and 11-9 in the ACC, but they reeled off four straight and beat Duke to secure the bid from the ACC. It's been a complete 180 for the team; they're playing with a bunch of confidence and an offense that was 205th nationally in points per game has suddenly become flaming hot. Forwards Keve Aluma and do-it-all Justyn Mutts remain a fearsome force on the Virginia Tech frontline, but it's been Hunter Catoor's hot shooting that has fueled the Hokie renaissance. Catoor went off for 31 points against Duke in the ACC Championship Game and paired with another sharpshooter in Storm Murphy, VT could be an incredibly tough out for any team they face. I think they have a fairly good shot at reaching the second weekend; Texas has been playing better over the season's second half, but Chris Beard's team is beatable. A potential meeting with Purdue in the second round is also winnable; while Zach Edey and Trevion Williams will be a difficult matchup down low, Matt Painter's program has some March demons to figure out before I pick them on a deep run. 

The Scrappy Underdog: Murray State Racers

As they embark on their 18th NCAA Tournament appearance, it's becoming more and more difficult to call Murray State an underdog. But, as a seven-seed with a potential second round date against Kentucky on the horizon, they'll operate as one. The thing is, Matt McMahon's team could be a very scary team in the bottom-half of this region, as they didn't lose a single game in the Ohio Valley this year and play both ends. They're a scrappy defensive team that has a knack for getting in passing lanes and on offense, Tevin Brown and K.J. Williams offer a potent 1-2 scoring combo. Add in guard Justice Hill, an excellent distributor and decent shooter, and the Racers will put up points. They open against a San Francisco program that hasn't been to the Big Dance in decades, but they shouldn't overlook the Dons. San Francisco has some high-scoring guards and coach Todd Golden is the type of guy who could become a household coaching name in March. I still like the Racers to move onto the Round of 32 and perhaps provide John Calipari and Kentucky a stressful game on the Tournament's first weekend.

The Storyline Team: Kentucky Wildcats

There's little denying Kentucky basketball remains one of the most recognizable and well-known brands in collegiate athletics. However, not since Anthony Davis was dominating opponents has Kentucky lifted a National Title, with the drought now over a decade. At some point, Calipari is going to bring another National Title to Lexington. He's way too good of a coach and has had way too much elite talent pass through this program not to do it. Plus, I think this year's group has a really good shot, particularly considering they play in an East Region where the top seed has so many questions. This Wildcats team checks a lot of boxes of a championship contender. They have elite lead guards (TyTy Washington, Sahvir Wheeler), shooting (Kellan Grady, Davion Mintz), the probable National Player of the Year (Oscar Tshiebwe) and significant depth. This is not your typical Cal-coached "one-and-done" team that might buckle under the pressure of the NCAA Tournament. Grady, Wheeler, Mintz, Tshiebwe, and Jacob Toppin are all transfers from other programs, with most of that group already earning past March Madness experience. I just feel like the timing is right for Calipari to win another one and while this isn't his most talented team he's ever had, I think it's built in a way to do so. I'm slightly hesitant as of late only because the national media seems to be jumping on the Kentucky bandwagon, but they're my National Title pick this year.

Picking the East

First Round

1 Baylor over 16 Norfolk State ... In 2012, Kyle O'Quinn and Norfolk State shocked Missouri as a 15 seed. They won't do it this year as a 16, Baylor rolls on.

8 UNC over 9 Marquette ... This is essentially a coin flip for me. North Carolina has been frustrating all year, but their improved play down the stretch has me going Tar Heels.

5 Saint Mary's over 12 Indiana (projected First Four winner) ... The Gaels are deep, experienced, and well-coached. They make Mike Woodson's first NCAA Tournament run short-lived.

4 UCLA over 13 Akron ... The Zips should put up a valiant fight, but there's just too many weapons on this UCLA roster to think they bow out in the first round this year.

6 Texas over 11 Virginia Tech ... I know I list Virginia Tech as the Region's "Cinderella" possibility, but Texas has too many scoring options and I trust Chris Beard in March.

3 Purdue over 14 Yale ... Even after last year's shocking loss to North Texas, I don't see Purdue losing in the first round again. Jaden Ivey guides them past the Ivy League Champion Yale Bulldogs.

7 Murray State over 10 San Francisco ... Dons are certainly not an easy first round matchup for the Racers, but this Murray State team is too good to lose in the first round.

2 Kentucky over 15 Saint Peter's ... Saint Peter's took advantage of Iona's shocking loss to earn the MAAC's auto bid, but it will be short-lived, as they fall to UK.

Second Round

1 Baylor over 8 UNC ... Definitely not a breeze of a second round game for Baylor, but their edge at the guard spots helps them overcome the Heels.

4 UCLA over 5 Saint Mary's ... Should be a fun, back-and-forth game between these two California schools, but Juzang and Jaquez are too much for the Gaels.

3 Purdue over 6 Texas ... A potential upset spot here with all the scorers Texas can throw at you, but Matt Painter's team is just too well constructed to head home before the second weekend.

2 Kentucky over 7 Murray State ... The Wildcats are in for a fight whether it's Murray State or San Francisco in the second round, but Oscar Tshiebwe is too much for the Racers to contain.

Sweet 16

4 UCLA over 1 Baylor ... UCLA has been frustratingly inconsistent all season, but I'm still a believer in Mick Cronin and the Bruins. They take down a Baylor team who I would probably have winning the Region if they were at full strength.

2 Kentucky over 3 Purdue ... So much future NBA talent on display in this game, but Kentucky just has too many weapons for the Boilermakers.

Elite Eight

2 Kentucky over 4 UCLA ... A fun clash between two of the sport's blue bloods, the Wildcats are deep enough to come out on top in a slugfest.

East Region Champ: 2 Kentucky Wildcats

2022 March Madness Bracket Analysis: West Region

 

Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga

The Top Seed: Gonzaga Bulldogs

For the second straight year, Gonzaga comfortably earned the top overall seed in the Tournament, following a season in which they went 26-3 and won yet another West Coast Conference Title. Is this the Gonzaga team that can finally reach the mountain top and bring home the first National Title to Spokane? They have a lot of the ingredients to do so; the backcourt has three experienced guards who can all handle the scoring load, spearheaded by one of the most efficient players in college basketball in Andrew Nembhard. The Bulldogs posses not one, but two, elite big men who can handle the ball and score in a variety of ways in Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren. Then, there's the overall experience and motivation factor, as the Bulldogs came so agonizingly close to a perfect season a year ago before coming up short against Baylor in the National Championship. There's a lot to like, but the road is not an easy one. Of the three teams Gonzaga lost to this year two of them, Duke and Alabama, are in the region. Duke in particular is a concerning potential foe, as they hope to send Coach K off with a grand exit. Even before then, potential dates with a flaming hot Memphis team, or Arkansas or UConn in the Sweet 16 could be danger spots. This is unquestionably a strong Gonzaga team that was deserving of the top seed, but I think it's clearly a couple steps below last year's group. That doesn't mean they can't win a National Title, but the margin for error is even thinner.

The Cinderella Possibility: Vermont Catamounts

Vermont has become somewhat of a March staple at this point, as they play in their third Big Dance in six years. The first two trips under head man John Becker were short-lived, both first round defeats, but I have a feeling this Vermont squad could be different. For one, they're playing truly incredible basketball, with just one loss since a defeat at the hands of Providence in early December. They're fresh off a dominant showing in the America East Championship Game, as they pummeled UMBC by 39 points. Just as important, it's a balanced roster that plays both ends. They don't play crazy up-tempo but have an effective roster that shoots well from both the free throw line and three-point, and they play strong team defense. There isn't a superstar leading the team like past Catamount teams that were led by UVM great Anthony Lamb, but forward Ryan Davis and guard Ben Shungu are more than capable of leading this team on a run. The Catamounts open up with fourth-seeded Arkansas, an interesting matchup between two teams that play different styles. The Razorbacks seem to have the edge in the backcourt and will try to push the pace, but Vermont has the edge in the paint. I firmly expect UVM to try and muck this one up and play a more contained, slower form of basketball, which could be what they need to do to beat Eric Musselman and the Razorbacks. If they can pull off the upset, it sets up an intriguing matchup with the winner of UConn/New Mexico State with a trip to the second weekend on the line.

Don't Forget About: Texas Tech Red Raiders

Chris Beard may be coaching in Austin now, but Texas Tech still plays with a similar grit and toughness under new head man Mark Adams. The Red Raiders don't have a leading star like Jarrett Culver or Mac McClung on this team, but it's a well-rounded team that is going to be a tough out for anyone. The scoring load will mainly be handled by Terrance Shannon Jr. and Bryson Williams, but teams will also have to contend with Kevin Obanor and Kevin McCullar. Obanor played a leading role on the Oral Roberts team that shocked Ohio State a year ago and played in the Sweet 16, and he's having a strong season with Tech. There's also a pair of interesting guards in Adonis Arms and Davion Warren, who are both extremely fun to watch. Arms is on his third collegiate team and can play above the rim, while Warren is an elite defender who is a tough cover for defenders with his mix of size (6'6") and quickness. Overall, it plays a lot like the Beard-coached teams who went down regularly in March; there's size, toughness, versatility and an attitude that this team plays with, they might not win but they'll have you a hell of a fight for every second of the 40-minute contest. Montana State is not an easy opening game, as the Big Sky Champs are a tough basketball team, but the Red Raiders should win and I think they match up favorably with whoever they face in the next round, whether it's Alabama, Rutgers or Notre Dame. In fact, I think this is the type of team nobody wants to play in this region and I wouldn't be surprised if they toppled one, or both, of the two seeds ahead of them in the region. I'm such a big fan of this team and the way Adams has carried them on following Beard's departure I'm picking them, not Duke or Gonzaga, to come out of the West Region.

Don't Forget About: Davidson Wildcats

A decade-and-a-half ago, Steph Curry introduced the world to Davidson basketball with his magical play leading the Wildcats to an Elite Eight. The program has changed quite a bit since then, but don't be surprised if another sharpshooting Davidson guard catches the world by storm this March: South Korean transplant Hyunjung Lee. The 6'7" junior has an incredibly smooth stroke and is one of the best I've ever seen at moving without the basketball; he's shooting 38% from three despite shooting them at a very high rate, averaging over six attempts per game. He is likely to be the one to fuel a potential Davidson run, but he's far from the only Wildcat that can hurt you. Foster Loyer, who just so happens to be playing the team where he began his career in Michigan State, is averaging over 16 PPG, and forward Luka Brajkovic is a load to handle in the post. Those three, plus guard Michael Jones, form a fearsome foursome that should give any opponent troubles, even if the depth isn't quite there. I like Davidson's chances to beat Michigan State in the first round, which could then set up a fun second round duel with Duke, their fellow in-state foes.

The Storyline Team: Duke Blue Devils

If you haven't already heard a million times by now, this will be Coach K's final time leading the Duke Blue Devils in March. It's obviously the conclusion of a successful and iconic era in Duke hoops and college basketball in general, and you know that Coach K wants to add one more Title to his trophy case before moving on. He certainly has a team with the potential to do so, with a No. 1 pick possibility leading the charge in Paolo Banchero. Fellow freshman A.J. Griffin provides the much-needed shooting touch, while the "veterans" on the team, Wendell Moore, Mark Williams, and Jeremy Roach, are looking for some level of redemption after last year's disappointment. The offense has the firepower to put up points in a hurry, with a Top 10 offense nationally. My question is whether the defense is good enough to carry the Blue Devils on a long Tournament run. Williams is a tremendous rim protector, but the rest of the defense has been inconsistent all season and could face some dangerous offenses along the way. Additionally, I do have serious questions about Duke's lack of depth. Sure, a lot of teams only run 7-8 man rotations in modern college basketball, but what happens if a few of the starters, such as Williams or Banchero, get in foul trouble? I think this team is certainly good enough to win a few games and play past the Tournament's second weekend, but National Title good? I'm just not sure the ingredients are in place to send off K with a bang.

Picking the West

First Round

1 Gonzaga over 16 Georgia State ... The Sun Belt Champs have gone on a tremendous run just to get to the Big Dance, but I fear it will be short-lived as they run into the buzzsaw that is Gonzaga.

9 Memphis over 8 Boise State ... Don't assume this will be a breeze for a suddenly hot Memphis squad, but the Tigers just have so many weapons and are fully healthy.

5 UConn over 12 New Mexico State ... Upset-minded New Mexico State is always a scary 12-seed, but they have no answer for UConn big Adama Sanogo down low.

13 Vermont over 4 Arkansas ... Vermont has been a popular dark horse NCAA Tournament pick, but haven't been able to do serious damage just yet. I think this is the team to change that.

6 Alabama over 11 Rutgers ... This should be a very fun game with all the backcourt talent on display, but the Crimson Tide are simply a better team top-to-bottom than Rutgers.

3 Texas Tech over 14 Montana State ... The Bobcats went 27-7 en route to a Big Sky Title, but they don't have the necessary offense to take down Texas Tech.

10 Davidson over 7 Michigan State ... Hyunjung Lee and the sharpshooting Davidson Wildcats are too much for a Michigan State team that hasn't been playing great basketball these last few months.

2 Duke over 15 Cal State Fullerton ... Coach K and Duke have lost to 15 seeds before, but I just think this group has too much talent to fall to Cal State Fullerton.

Second Round

1 Gonzaga over 9 Memphis ... A lot of future NBA talent on the floor, even with Emoni Bates no longer with the Memphis program, but the Tigers aren't deep enough to compete with Gonzaga for 40 minutes.

5 UConn over 13 Vermont ... Should be a fun battle of New England foes, but this UConn team is disciplined and well-coached, they should be able to come out on top.

3 Texas Tech over 6 Alabama ... A battle of differing strengths. Alabama will play fast with their collection of guards, while Texas Tech wants to slow you down and battle for every inch. The Red Raiders come out victorious in a classic SEC-Big 12 duel.

2 Duke over 10 Davidson ... This could be a really scary second round matchup for Duke, but Paolo, A.J. Griffin, and Trevor Keels help them advance to the second weekend.

Sweet 16

1 Gonzaga over 5 UConn ... Two great basketball teams that should provide plenty of offensive fireworks, but I like the 'Zags to keep on rolling.

3 Texas Tech over 2 Duke ... The Red Raiders don't have the flash or future NBA picks like the Blue Devils, but they play a brand of basketball that should complicate things for Duke.

Elite Eight

3 Texas Tech over 1 Gonzaga ... Not picking Duke or Gonzaga in the West may be bold, but I think both of those teams have fatal flaws and something tells me Tech will be an incredibly tough out.

West Region Champ: 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders