2022 March Madness Primer

Ochai Agbaji, Kansas

With February in the rearview, we enter one of the most exciting times of the year for college sports fans: March. There's still plenty of good basketball to watch over the coming few weeks, but all eyes are on the impending NCAA Tournament. In that spirit, I've decided to unveil my 2022 March Madness primer, taking into account everything you should be following before Selection Sunday on March 13. From the battle for the No. 1 seeds, to bubble teams and potential Cinderellas, this is the place to start your NCAA Tournament research.

The Basics

Considering the 2020 NCAA Tournament was cancelled and the 2021 edition was a shell of the usual event, the 2022 Big Dance will be the first "normal" iteration of the event in three years! What does that mean? Here are a few things to consider:

• All 32 Division I college basketball conferences will be represented at the event in 2022. That was not the case last year, as the Ivy League did not play a season at all due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This means that there will once again be 36 at-large spots open for non-automatic qualifiers.
• The Tournament will expand beyond the state of Indiana, after the 2021 NCAA Tournament was held entirely in the Hoosier State. The "First Four" will once again be held in Dayton, while other first and second round venues include: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Fort Worth, Portland, Greenville, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and San Diego.
• Expect the stands to be full and raucous this year, after the event was limited to 25% capacity in 2021. The return of fans will add an interesting and much-needed element to the Tournament this year after a weirdly quiet '21.
• The 2022 NCAA Tournament will wrap up in New Orleans with the Final Four games on April 2nd and 4th. This will be the sixth time the City of New Orleans hosts the event, the first time since 2012. The winner that year? Anthony Davis and the Kentucky Wildcats toppled Kansas.

The No. 1 Seed Battle

With just four No. 1 seeds to play for, it should be a fascinating race down the stretch. There's not any team that is a lock for a top seed right now and as many as 7-8 that seem to have a very realistic shot at rising to the one seed line. Here are the most likely contenders:

• Gonzaga Bulldogs: Gonzaga is the betting favorite to be the top overall seed for the second consecutive year. This team isn't as dominant as last season's squad, but they're still the nation's current No. 1 with a 23-3 overall record and 12-1 mark in the West Coast Conference. The Bulldogs have been aided by a strong non-conference resume that includes wins over Texas, UCLA, Texas Tech, and Saint Mary's. They've also been helped by the fact that the WCC is the strongest it's been in years, with as many as 4-5 teams in serious contention for a trip to the Big Dance. The loss this past weekend to Saint Mary's showed Gonzaga still has some kinks to work out over the next few weeks, but they're in a good spot.
• Auburn Tigers: Bruce Pearl's team spent a few weeks perched at the No. 1 ranking and they remain in play for the top overall seed. After an early-season loss to UConn, Auburn ripped off 19 straight wins before falling to Arkansas. They've shown some cracks in the foundation with losses to Tennessee and Florida over the last few games, but if they can hold to the SEC Title, they're in prime position to be a top seed.
• Arizona Wildcats: One of the best stories in college basketball this year, Arizona has a legit chance to be a No. 1 seed in head coach Tommy Lloyd's debut season. They're 25-3, have essentially already clinched the Pac-12 regular season title, and beat Michigan and Illinois in the non-conference. There's still work to be done, but Lloyd appears set to deliver a No. 1 seed to Tucson for the first time since 2014.
• Kansas Jayhawks: As the top team in possibly the nation's toughest conference, Kansas will be in contention for a No. 1 seed. Bill Self's club has a strong resume across the board and of their four losses, three have been to current Top 10 teams (Kentucky, Baylor, Texas Tech). Even the one loss that wasn't, a head-scratcher to Dayton, doesn't look as bad recently with the Flyers' improved play. With that being said, KU is lacking a signature victory that could push them into No. 1 seed territory and they're running out of opportunities to find it, plus the loss to TCU last night further complicates things. The Jayhawks could still earn top billing by earning a Big 12 Title, but the better money in the league seems to be on the team from Waco right now.
• Baylor Bears: The reigning National Champs got a huge win this weekend over Kansas, pushing them back into the top seed discussion. Outside of a defeat to Oklahoma State, Baylor doesn't have a bad loss and they built a nice non-conference resume by beating Oregon, Michigan State, and Villanova. The Big 12 Tournament may decide who takes a top seed between Kansas and the Bears.
• Duke Blue Devils: Duke owns one of the most important non-conference victories of the season with their win over Gonzaga, but the fact the ACC has been incredibly weak has hurt their No. 1 seed chances. With the chaos that happened over the weekend, the Blue Devils seem to be back in play and who knows, Coach K's farewell tour may be the motivator the Selection Committee needs to place them as a No. 1.
• Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin's win this week over Purdue earned them a share of the Big Ten Title and with a strong non-conference resume, Greg Gard's team is in play for a top seed. Purdue and Illinois remain at least in the conversation, but neither have been able to string together the consistent play necessary for a No. 1 seed. However, the Big Ten Tournament could complicate things a bit, with neither the Boilermakers or Illini completely dead if enough chaos happens elsewhere.

The Bubble Teams

The NCAA Tournament bubble is always a fascinating watch this time of year, and the race this year is no less intriguing. There's a handful of teams vying for just a few at-large spots, and there's a chance those spots could be reduced even further with the potential of "bid-stealers," teams who win their conference tournaments and in turn, steal a bid. Here are a few of the bubble teams I'm keeping an eye on as the regular season draws to a close:

• Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana looked safely in the field for a few months before a recent five-game skid threw their NCAA Tournament hopes into question. They've since recovered by beating Maryland and Minnesota, but neither victory is going to push them back into safety just yet. A battle against another bubble team, Rutgers, looms before the Purdue rivalry game to conclude the regular season. 
• Memphis Tigers: Penny Hardaway's Memphis Tigers have been one of the most frustrating teams all season, but as winners of eight of their last nine, they're in play for the Big Dance. They have two great wins, over Houston and Alabama, that could propel them over the rest of the pack, but a pair of bad losses, to Ole Miss and Georgia. With one more game against Houston remaining on the schedule, with it being at home, the Tigers are in decent position to break through and reach the NCAA Tournament.
• San Francisco Dons: San Francisco hasn't made an NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998, but this year's team could be the one to change that. They built a strong non-conference resume, but the WCC has been difficult this year, as they sit at 10-6 in the league. It would be helpful if the Dons were able to come out with a victory against either one of the two Tournament locks in the conference, Gonzaga or Saint Mary's, but they lost all four to those two foes. Their performance in the WCC Tournament is likely to decide their fate.
• Oregon Ducks: One of the preseason favorites in the Pac-12, Oregon had a frustrating start to the year, but Dana Altman's team is trending up at the right time. They recovered from a pair of road losses to the Arizona schools by beating UCLA, pushing them right back into the bubble. They absolutely need to sweep the Washington schools over the next week, but they're another team that will be have to impress in their respective conference tournament to secure a bid.
• Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Steve Forbes has done a great job with this Wake Forest team, but the Demon Deacons are trending in the opposite direction of where they'd like to be going. They've lost three of five, and while defeats to Miami and Duke are understandable, the Clemson loss stings. This is a team that lacks the resume of others trying to battle in; outside of Notre Dame and potentially UNC, they don't own a single win against a projected NCAA Tournament team.
• BYU Cougars: A resounding win over then-No. 12 Oregon early in the season seemed to indicate BYU was going to be a challenger to Gonzaga in the WCC, but they haven't quite fulfilled those early expectations. They're 21-9 overall and 9-6 in the league as they embark on the conference tournament, finding themselves right on the bubble. A bad loss to Pacific is holding them back particularly, but they're also lacking much signature wins. If San Diego State and Oregon can both sneak into the field (they're both firmly on the bubble), that would help BYU quite a bit, but they're simply might not be enough spots for that to happen.

Dark Horse Teams

"Cinderella" stories are part of what makes March Madness so great. But, the whole reason they're "Cinderella" stories is because they come out of nowhere to shock the college basketball landscape. That makes them difficult to predict, especially when you don't even have a cemented bracket. Even so, these are the low and mid-major teams to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.

• Toledo Rockets (Projected Seed: 13-14): The MAC has quietly became a very respectable mid-major league, and the Toledo Rockets are the favorite to be the conference's automatic qualifier. This team has a high-scoring offense, rebounds the ball well, and shoots a decent percentage from both the stripe and three. They played Michigan State fairly tough earlier in the season and could follow in the footsteps of fellow MAC schools Ohio and Buffalo by winning a game or two in the Big Dance.
• Iona Gaels (Projected Seed: 12-13): Iona is going to be a popular upset pick this year, for a few reasons. For one, they are 24-5 overall, 16-2 in the MAAC, and beat Alabama in the non-conference. More importantly, they have a legendary coach on the sideline, Rick Pitino, who would love to sink a major-conference school in the first round. This is likely to be Iona's 16th NCAA Tournament team, but they have only won one game in program history, providing a nice dose of motivation.
• North Texas Mean Green (Projected Seed: 13-14): Grant McCasland's team pulled off a notable upset last spring when they took down fourth-seeded Purdue, and his Mean Green will be dangerous once again. After a shaky start to the year, this team has reeled off 14 straight victories and is in the driver's seat in the Conference USA. As one of the best defensive teams anywhere in college basketball, UNT is going to be an absolute headache for some team in the first round, assuming they lock down a Tournament bid.
• Colgate Raiders (Projected Seed: 14-16): Colgate is looking to make their third consecutive NCAA Tournament and remains in the driver's seat in the Patriot League. The Raiders have been up-and-down most of the year; they got a big win against Syracuse in the non-conference, but also suffered several head-scratching losses. They've recovered by going on a long win streak of their own and remain a potent offense that shares the ball as well as anybody in the nation. Big Keegan Records isn't going to drop 30 a game in the NCAA Tournament, but is the type of versatile, efficient big that could help fuel a run.
• Princeton Tigers (Projected Seed: 13-15): Ivy League teams are always dangerous teams when it comes to March and they'll be back with a vengeance after not participating in the event in 2021. Princeton is the favorite to be the league's representative, and the Tigers could be sneaky. Head coach Mitch Henderson always has teams that play fast and love to score, but this team is better shooting than past editions. With three players who average at least 15 points per game, the Tigers have the balanced scoring you need to go on a March run.

Scouting the Contenders 2022: Gonzaga Bulldogs

Drew Timme, Gonzaga

As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, scouts their strengths and weaknesses, and takes a best guess on just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We continue with the Gonzaga Bulldogs, who recently retook their post as the No. 1 team in the nation.

Track Record

• 23-2 overall, 12-0 in the West Coast Conference
• Notable wins: 86-74 vs. Texas, 83-63 @ UCLA, 69-55 vs. Texas Tech, 74-58 vs. Saint Mary's
• Losses: 84-81 @ Duke, 91-82 vs. Alabama
• Clinched 10th straight WCC Title

Scouting Report

Mark Few's Gonzaga program continues to run like a well-oiled machine. After coming just short of an undefeated season in 2020-21, the Bulldogs have been one of the most consistently strong teams anywhere in college basketball this year. With Auburn's recent struggles, the 'Zags were able to reclaim the No. 1 spot in the country, and they are the clear betting favorite to be the top overall seed come NCAA Tournament time. With that success, comes added pressure. Few has now taken this program to a pair of National Championship Games in just the past half-decade, but came up short in both. Is this year's team finally the one to bring a National Title back to Spokane?

Strengths

Offensive strength/versatility... Much like last year's team, this Gonzaga team boasts one of the best offenses in America. They average nearly 90 points per game and shoot an efficient clip from the field, three-point, and from the free throw line. There are several reasons why this group is so effective; for one, they have enough talent on the roster that they can spread out their scoring and don't have to rely on just one or two pieces. Forward Drew Timme is the leading scorer and the star of the team, but Andrew Nembhard, Julian Strawther, Chet Holmgren, and Rasir Bolton can all handle the offensive load when needed. Just as important, it's a group with a lot of varying strengths and skillsets, which gives the offense significant versatility. It's a real pain for opposing defenses when they have to deal with a pair of seven-footers who can both shoot the three ball like Timme and Holmgren, and the backcourt trio can shoot and penetrate as well as anybody in the nation. Lastly, you'll notice when watching Gonzaga just how freely this offense flows; the ball movement, spacing, cutting, all of it is at a professional level. This isn't your average college basketball team, they play with a rhythm and movement that you simply don't see very often. It's easy to say every high-scoring offense that can shoot is reminiscent of the peak-Golden State Warriors, but this group has shades of that offense, even if they don't have a pair of "Splash Brothers" in their backcourt.

Size... Timme and Holmgren are two players that you don't see very often in college basketball, let alone on the same team. They're well-rounded big men who are incredibly tough to guard; Timme is a machine around the basket and excellent at finding space in the paint. Holmgren, on the other hand, is incredibly quick for his size and is shooting 45% from three-point territory. There's not many teams that have defenders capable of stopping that duo, with their mix of size and skillset. Even the Gonzaga backcourt brings size to the table. Nembhard and Strawther, two of their primary ball-handlers, are 6'5" and 6'7", respectively. That enables them to dictate mismatches offensively and on defense, both of them have a knack for getting their hands in passing lanes. This overall size is supported by the numbers, too. The Bulldogs are Top 10 in the nation in rebounding and blocks, and actually leads the nation in defensive rebounding. Those types of things matter, particularly when it comes to the Big Dance. Gonzaga's ability to not allow second chance possessions could mean all the difference when they face tougher foes down the line.

Coaching... Mark Few is one of the best coaches in college basketball, full stop. He's always been a great program builder, and has taken his recruiting to a completely different stratosphere, but people still don't completely respect his basketball mind. He's an absolute tactician as an offensive coach and is great situationally; he's proven his worth in countless close Gonzaga victories. Just as important, Few is a calm, steadying presence on the sidelines. That's crucial for a Bulldog team that always has significant pressure on them, which will be taken to another level in March. Having a voice of reason like Few leading the charge should help the 'Zags survive the chaos of an event literally coined, "March Madness."

Motivation... No basketball team ever needs extra motivation to go out and try and compete for a National Title, but you get a feeling this means even more to Gonzaga with how last year panned out. To be the most dominant team all season and frankly, one of the most dominant teams we've seen in decades, and fall short on the goal-line is quite the motivator. Most of last year's group remains in town, namely Timme and Nembhard, and their goal has been obvious. It's not about West Coast Conference Titles, or No. 1 rankings, or a No. 1 seed. It's all about getting to the National Championship and this time, finishing the job. "Championship or bust" is a phrase that I think gets thrown around too often, but for this Gonzaga team, I think it fits perfectly.

Weaknesses

Competition... This is the common knock against Gonzaga, but it's only partially fair. The Bulldogs always play tough in the non-conference portion of the season, evidenced by games against Texas, Texas Tech, Alabama, and Duke this year. The West Coast Conference has also rapidly improved behind them; BYU and Saint Mary's remain consistent NCAA Tournament teams and the league could put as many as 4-5 teams in the Big Dance in 2022. With that being said, Gonzaga still doesn't face the same type of schedule other teams grappling for a No. 1 seed do. Between their meeting with Texas Tech right before Christmas and their victory over Saint Mary's just over a week ago, they did not face a single ranked foe. They still faced several quality opponents, such as BYU and San Francisco, but beating up on middle-of-the-pack WCC teams is different than beating up middle teams in say, the Big Ten. It's hard to know how this impacts Gonzaga; they've shown the last few years that the lack of difficult schedule for weeks at a time hasn't kept them reaching a National Championship. But, the lack of elite opponents on the schedule down the stretch reduces their ability to figure out their own deficiencies and work through them. It's not always as simple as "iron sharpens iron," but it's not crazy to think a tougher schedule would end up doing the Bulldogs good in the long run.

Depth... This is a bit of nitpicking this Gonzaga team, particularly when you consider most modern college basketball teams only go 8-9 deep. But, you do wonder if the Bulldogs have the legs to survive the gauntlet of March with this current roster. They have five proven starters and have three other guys that play at least 15 minutes in a pair of freshmen, Hunter Sallis and Nolan Hickman, and veteran big Anton Watson. Beyond that, there's not very much on this roster beyond a pair of little-used pieces in forward Ben Gregg and guard Matthew Lang. Gonzaga has proven you don't need to be 11-12 deep to be successful and it helps when your starting lineup is as effective as this group is, but it's something to consider when you're evaluating the Bulldogs.

Perimeter defense... If you watch the tape of Gonzaga's two losses, there are a few things that jump out. Most notably, they turned the ball over quite a bit in both defeats but overall, they don't turn the ball over too much, averaging out to around 11 per. The more notable thing to watch in the losses and some of Gonzaga's other close games, has been the guard battle. Nembhard, Bolton, and Strawther are tremendous offensive players, but they've been outplayed on the other end on more than one occasion. Nembhard leads the team in steals and is a good defender at the point-of-attack, but Bolton and Strawther leave a lot to be desired. It hasn't been too much of an issue for Gonzaga because their offense can generally respond but there's a chance they run into guard-oriented teams in the NCAA Tournament who will be able to take advantage. The Alabama game in particular was telling; Jaden Shackelford dropped 28 points for Alabama and the pace of the Tide caused Gonzaga significant difficulties. If Gonzaga runs into them again or faces a similar opponent, I think that the blueprint for beating them is there, especially late in the year when they don't have their legs. One team in particular Gonzaga has yet to play that I think could give them real problems in a hypothetical Final Four/National Championship game? Kentucky, whose collection of guards (along with the dominance of big Oscar Tshiebwe) has propelled them into becoming a National Title frontrunner.

Bottom Line

Gonzaga entered the season as my National Title pick and after three months of basketball, my opinion hasn't shifted too much on them. This is a really good basketball team with an excellent coach leading the charge; Timme and Nembhard are two of my favorite players in college basketball and Holmgren is a special talent. They've proven their worth not only by beating up on the WCC, but impressing in the non-conference portion of the season. I think they're one of the safer bets to make a Final Four, but the big question for me remains the same as it did preseason: can they finish the job? This team is a step below last year's edition in my mind, but their path appears easier, without any clear favorite right now in college basketball. That alone makes them one of the smarter National Title picks out there, particularly with the added motivation from last year's loss. This program has been unfairly labeled as somewhat of March choke, unable to finish the job despite countless high seeds. Not only is that not completely true, I don't think it will be the case for long. This program has way too much talent and Few is too good of a coach for the 'Zags to remain National Title-less for long; this team can certainly be the one to bring one back to Spokane.

Scouting the Contenders 2022: Auburn Tigers

Bruce Pearl, Auburn

As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, scouts their strengths and weaknesses, and takes a best guess on just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We begin with the nation's current No. 1 team, the one-loss Auburn Tigers.

Track Record

• 21-1 overall, 9-0 SEC 
• Lone loss 115-109 to No. 17 UConn
• Notable wins: 62-53 vs. Loyola-Chicago, 70-55 vs. LSU, 81-77 @ Alabama, 80-71 vs. Kentucky
• Seeking second Final Four appearance in school history (2019)

Scouting Report

Football will probably always rule the day at Auburn, but there's no question that Bruce Pearl and company have revolutionized what the hardwood means on the Plains. Prior to Pearl's arrival following the 2014 campaign, the Tigers list of basketball accomplishments was underwhelming, to say the least. The program hadn't gone to the NCAA Tournament since 2003, hadn't had a player drafted since 2001, and hadn't finished with a winning record since 2009. In a half-decade, Pearl has delivered an SEC regular season title, an SEC Tournament title, a Final Four, and now, perhaps the program's best shot ever at a National Title. Auburn is cemented as the nation's No. 1 team and is riding a 18-game winning streak as they prepare for the second half of SEC play.

Strengths

Pure talent...What's different about this Auburn team? Well, for one, this is the most talented team, top-to-bottom in program history. It begins with Jabari Smith, the highly touted, five-star recruit who is considered one of the favorites to be the top selection in the 2022 NBA Draft. Smith is the type of talent Auburn fans haven't seen since Charles Barkley and Chuck Person were running up and down the court in the 1980s; he's got a versatile offensive game, a smooth jump shot, and the athletic traits you'd like to see from any star in this age of basketball. Smith is the big name, but he's far from the only contributor likely to have an NBA future. North Carolina transfer Walker Kessler is a seven-footer shot-blocker who has seen major improvements during his time with the Tigers, guards K.J. Johnson and Wendell Green are spark-plug guards, and wing Allen Flanigan is one of the SEC's most underrated players, even though he's been hurt for big chunks of the season. In a lot of ways, this lineup has become a traditional modern college basketball roster; it's got a mix of freshmen and veteran transfers, plus a few holdovers from past Tiger teams. It's not a very deep group, but doesn't need to be for this team to be successful night-in, night-out, especially if Kessler and the bigs can stay out of foul trouble..

Mentality/attitude... One of the other big things that jump out at you when watching this Auburn team is the mentality and attitude they play with. It's a hard thing to describe, but you it when you watch this team. They play with a limitless energy and a type of "bulldog" mentality that you can't really teach. Take Johnson, a former Georgia transfer, as a primetime example of this. He's undersized, just six feet, and isn't the quickest or most athletic player on the court. But, he plays incredibly hard, he's a sticky on-ball defender, and isn't afraid of the big moment. The same can be said for Green, or fellow guard Zep Jasper, or any number of other Tigers. They don't necessarily play a pretty brand of basketball, but have a type of confidence and swagger on the hardwood that lends itself to success. You can credit that to Pearl being able to bring these guys to campus, but then working to instill that type of hard-working, gritty attitude each time they play.

Defensive/rebounding prowess... One other thing I really love about this Auburn team is their work defensively, and on the glass. Everybody wants to focus on offense in today's basketball, and for good reason, but this Tiger does the smaller things super well. It's a great rebounding basketball team throughout the roster. Kessler and Smith are their two top rebounders, but guards Wendell Green, Flanigan, and Devan Cambridge are some of the best rebounders anywhere in the country at their respective positions. Don't think this has a large impact on the game? Auburn's victory this weekend over Oklahoma was fueled by a dominant 41-29 rebounding advantage and they snatched up 27 of 33 possible defensive boards. It's one thing to have talent, but not allowing opponents second chance points? These are the types of things that make a difference in March. As for defense, it helps when you have the nation's shot-blocker in Kessler, who is swatting away shots at a historic pace, but he's not the only piece to the puzzle on the defensive end. The guards are all skilled perimeter defenders and Smith's versatility on defense is a massive luxury, as he can realistically guard 1-5. This is also a defense that rotates and communicates as well as any in college basketball, which again, is credit to Pearl. In modern college hoops, where teams full of transfers are the norm, getting a team to be this cohesive and work so well together is a rarity. But when you get it, it can make all the difference between a good team and an elite team.

Weaknesses

Shooting... How can you find weaknesses for a team that's currently 21-1 and riding a historic win streak? It's not super easy, but every basketball team has weaknesses, and that's no different for the Tigers. The most obvious one is three-point shooting; so far Auburn has been able to get by offensively by sheer will power and some crafty offensive players, but this is not a great shooting basketball team. Beyond Smith, who doesn't shoot a crazy amount of threes, they don't have a regular contributor above 40% from downtown, and nobody is even particularly close. These guards just aren't super efficient from the field; give Green, Johnson, and Jasper credit for still finding ways to score, but only Johnson is shooting above 40% from the field. That's a genuine concern because the fact of the matter is, they are going to run into some hot shooting teams down the stretch, whether it's still in the regular season or in the NCAA Tournament. Getting a healthier Flanigan will help take some pressure off these other guards, but the reality is that these guys need to be more efficient on the offensive end to maintain their current hot play.

Free throw shooting... You don't need to be a great free throw shooting team to win it all, and recent NCAA champs bear that out. However, when you get deeper in the season and games get closer, you would like a National Championship favorite to be a little bit better at the stripe than the Tigers. They are fairly mediocre in both free throw percentage (74%) and free throws attempted per game, with 19.8. Those numbers have been helped quite a bit by the fact that Smith and Green both get to the line and shoot a high percentage, but the team as a whole isn't great. Again though, I pause for some context. Auburn is averaging over 80 points per game despite less-than-stellar shooting from the field and free throw line and to be fair, they've improved in this category over the last few weeks. But, when you get to March and the margin for error is so thin when it comes to winning a National Title, it is a potential concern. Virginia in 2019 was the prime example of a team that showed that the margin for going home in the Sweet 16 and winning a National Title can be razor thin, as they won several games by the skin of their teeth.

Program history... I'll admit that this is a relatively unfair "weakness" for this Auburn team, but it is something people consider when choosing a National Championship team. This is not a program with a rich history of winning in March, as their lone Final Four appearance came back in 2019. That doesn't mean that you should automatically pick a Duke or another blue blood if they were to be matched up in the Tournament, but getting over the top and winning the first one is always the hardest (just ask Gonzaga). 

Bottom Line

In a college basketball season where there hasn't been an overwhelming (or two) favorite, Auburn has taken up the mantle as the national frontrunner. Obviously, it's unfamiliar territory for the Tigers, but they haven't been flustered at all by the added pressure and seem to be playing with even more confidence. With that being said, it's a good possibility they're going to lose another game this season, whether it be in the regular or the SEC Tournament; how does this team respond? I'm always curious about the routes different teams take to March Madness. Some face a brutal schedule and may struggle through the regular season, but that seems to make them tougher and ready for the adversity of March. Other teams coast through the regular season, but are able to turn it on against tougher competition. There's no formula that indicates one is better than the other, but is this Auburn team one that battle through the adversity that comes with playing six hard-fought games over three weekends? Auburn hasn't faced a breezy schedule, but it wasn't up to par with other top teams in the non-conference and the SEC has faded during league play (namely LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas). I'm curious if this team hasn't been through enough battles to adjust to the NCAA Tournament. I still think this is a top-tier National Title threat, but the overall favorite? I'm not sold just yet, but if they keep up their hot play, it's hard to imagine this team not entering the Big Dance as the clear favorite.