NBA Draft 2021: Top 40 Big Board

Jalen Green, G League Ignite

 1. Cade Cunningham, G, Oklahoma State

Strengths: Elite, day-one playmaking ability, ideal size for modern NBA, significant defensive upside

Weaknesses: Not as quick as elite NBA guards, jump shots needs further refinement

Ceiling: NBA Superstar

Bust Potential: Moderate

Cade Cunningham is nearly a 100 percent lock to be heading to Detroit on Thursday night, and for good reason. The 19-year old combo guard put together an incredible one-year run with Oklahoma State, operating as their chief playmaker. He put up a statline of 20.1 PPG, 3.5 APG, and 6.2 RPG, while playing in one of the most competitive leagues in America. As an NBA prospect, he checks just about every box you could imagine, with the size to play and defend multiple positions, tremendous passing ability, and good shooting numbers. There are things to nitpick in his game like every player coming out of college, but he's well worth the top selection in this Draft. 

2. Evan Mobley, F, USC

Strengths: Seven-footer who can run the floor and play both ends, skilled rim protector, spaces the floor with a smooth jumper

Weaknesses: Needs to bulk up to survive the NBA, polish his touch around the rim

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: Low

Elite big men seem to be a lost art in today's NBA, but USC's Evan Mobley is the perfect post for the modern game. He's a legit seven-footer with long arms and the ability to become a top-notch shot-blocker, but his offensive game is ripe with potential. He can run the floor incredibly well for someone of his size, and the jump shot is there too. Mobley shot 30% from three in college, but one could imagine that those numbers could be even better as he develops. Around the rim, he isn't quite as polished as you might hope, but he's still crafty enough to get his own shot and understands how to impact the game as an offensive rebounder. I've seen him compared to Chris Bosh and Anthony Davis, and when you see his size mixed with his offensive game, the comparisons aren't unfounded. However, in order to reach his vast ceiling, he'll need to bulk up and show he has the work ethic and energy to be an elite player. If there is one clear criticism for Mobley, it's that he had moments where it looked like he was taking plays off for USC. If he wants to be great, that can't happen at the NBA level.

3. Jalen Suggs, PG, Gonzaga

Strengths: Eye-popping athleticism, amazing passing instincts and skill, clutch player who loves the big stage

Weaknesses: Jump shot will continue to need work, must developer the finer parts of his game

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: Low

Jalen Suggs had quite the run in his lone season with Gonzaga, growing into one of the game's most recognizable stars. His vision, feel for the game, and natural competitiveness helped him develop into one of the best distributors we've seen coming out of the college ranks in some time. He's always willing to push the pace and set up his teammates, but can also turn into the No. 1 scoring option when needed. Suggs had good shooting splits with the Bulldogs and of course made the legendary shot against UCLA in the Final Four, but continuing to develop his outside game should be his top priority at this point in his career. Defensively, the tools are all there for him to be a plus-defender in the pros, even at a loaded position, but further consistency on that end would continue to accelerate his rapid development.

4. Jalen Green, G/F, G League

Strengths: Highlight-reel athlete, offensive potential, skilled ball-handler

Weaknesses: Three-point shot needs work, turnover concerns

Ceiling: NBA All-Star 

Bust Potential: Moderate

Jalen Green was of the first major names to take the G League route instead of a one-year stint in college and it's hard to know whether the decision has helped or hurt his stock. On one hand, Green now has a year of experience playing in professional basketball, even if the G League is obviously a step down from the NBA. On the other, he didn't get the exposure that names like Cunningham, Mobley or Suggs did during their NCAA Tournament runs. NBA scouts still adore Green, primarily because of his offensive potential. He arrived in the G League as a tremendous athlete who could occasionally create his own shot, and evolved into a more consistent option who could do a wide variety of different things. He's still at his best getting downhill and attacking the basket, but his jump shot has improved, and so has his passing. He still needs to become smarter with the ball because he forced up too many difficult shots and bad passes, but that should come as he joins an NBA offense. 

5. Davion Mitchell, G, Baylor

Strengths: Dominant isolation scorer, continues to grow as a three-point shooter, pesky on-ball defender

Weaknesses: Limited ceiling compared to others in this Draft, undersized for the NBA

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

There's a drop-off here after the top four prospects in this cycle, but Davion Mitchell slides in comfortably at No. 5. Playing a key role in Baylor's National Championship run, Mitchell proved to be an exciting shot creator who excels in isolation. He's undersized at 6'1", but makes up for it with a fearless offensive game and acrobatic finishes around the rim. On defense, he's incredibly pesky and can often get his hands in passing lanes to disrupt opposing offenses. He won't lead the NBA in steals, but has the potential to be a truly elite on-ball defender, even with his limited size. With all that being said, I don't envision him having All-Star level potential in the pros, but he can still be a really important piece for a future contender. If I'm Orlando at pick five, he's my selection.

6. Franz Wagner, F, Michigan

Strengths: Long, athletic frame, capable shooter who should only get better from three, intelligent basketball player 

Weaknesses: Needs to bulk up, a slight tweener, not an elite athlete

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

Every NBA team is looking for young prospects who can hit the three ball at an efficient clip and also play plus defense, hence the "3-and-D" moniker. Plenty of prospects fit this mold at the top of the Draft, but few hit it quite on the tee like Franz Wagner. He shot 38% from three this past season at Michigan and is a consistent spot-up shooter, while also displaying strong defensive abilities. Wagner is not exactly an elite athlete, but makes up for it on defense with his length and size (6'9") and natural instincts. Much like Mitchell, he might not have the ceiling of an NBA star at the next level, but he's the type of solid, well-rounded prospect that is worth a stab in the middle to late lottery. Out of nearly all the prospects in my Top 10, Wagner might be the one I'd be the most surprised if he busted.

7. Scottie Barnes, G/F, Florida State

Strengths: Size and versatility to play multiple positions, tremendous finisher at the rim, defensive upside

Weaknesses: Jump shot needs a lot of work, came off the bench in college, raw in many areas

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: Moderate

Florida State has quietly become quite the factory for quality NBA Draft talent, and the next Seminole set to be taken is wing Scottie Barnes. Barnes came off the bench for pretty much the entire season at FSU, but still caught NBA eyes with his versatility, powerful finishing ability, and potential on defense. His numbers don't jump off the page at you, but he flashed serious two-way potential and seemed to improve every time he stepped on the court. His offensive skill set is still fairly limited at this point and he'll need to land in the right situation to be worthy of a lottery pick, but the tools are certainly in place. He has a real chance to go as high as No. 5, but a slide into the late lottery also wouldn't be a shock.

8. Jonathan Kuminga, G/F, G League

Strengths: Insane athlete, plays above the rim, still growing at just 18 years old

Weaknesses: Very raw throughout his offensive game, very sloppy defender at this point, very questionable shooter

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: High

Jonathan Kuminga reclassified from the Class of 2021 into 2020, then opted to take the professional route and join the G League. Playing against professional competition at just 18 years of age, Kuminga naturally had growing pains, but he did still flash potential. He's an explosive athlete that should rival Jalen Green in terms of highlight-reel plays, and he showed that he could defend multiple different positions at a quality level. Unsurprisingly, Kuminga still has a long ways to go in terms of development to be worthy of a Top 5 selection, as his shooting is extremely suspect, and he often gets lost defensively. He's the type of prospect that absolutely needs to land in the right situation, and may need further time in the G League to hone his skills. He has upside to be a real difference-maker, but there are just too many questions at this point for him to be any higher on the big board.

9. Josh Giddey, G/F, Australia

Strengths: Crafty, polished playmaker, perfect size for the modern game, still just 18 years old

Weaknesses: Shooting is suspect, average athlete

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

One of my favorite players in this Draft is Josh Giddey, who played this past season in Australia with the Adelaide 36ers. He reminds me a lot of a young Ricky Rubio, although with more size to offer and a little bit less flash. He has a natural leadership ability when running the offense and is a smooth passer and finisher. Giddey is dominant in the pick-and-roll and has great feel for it for his age, but has to continue to grow in creating his own looks. The shooting is not quite there just yet, as he shot 29% from three this past season for Adelaide, but his mechanics are solid for his age. The defense could also use further work, but he has the size and length to become solid, if rather unspectacular, at that end of the court. Giddey is the type of polished playmaker that might never average 20 points per game, but whose impact will be felt wherever he lands.

10. Moses Moody, G, Arkansas

Strengths: Proven two-way ability, great rebounder for his position, quality shot-maker

Weaknesses: Unclear position at the next level, not a shot creator

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

Moses Moody was a key component of one of the best Arkansas teams in recent memory, winning SEC Rookie of the Year, as he averaged 16.8 PPG and 5.8 RPG in just 34 minutes per game. He offers plenty of quality attributes as a prospect, a wing with good size and a seven-foot wingspan who can rebound and defend incredibly well for his position. He didn't come to college with a reputation as an elite offensive player, but he put up strong numbers throughout his time with the Razorbacks, including shooting 36% from three-point range. Moody is somewhat limited as an athlete and ball-handler, restricting his ability to create and finish his own shots, but he can make up for it in creative ways. He projects as a late lottery pick right now and would fit nicely on any number of NBA teams. Much like others outside the Top 5 range, he might not have All-Star potential, but he can be a quality asset in various situations.

11. Corey Kispert, G/F, Gonzaga

Strengths: Improved every single year at Gonzaga, smooth offensive game, plays with an edge

Weaknesses: 22 years old already, not necessarily an elite athlete

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

12. Sharife Cooper, PG, Auburn

Strengths: Explosive offensive player, natural instincts and incredible feel as a distributor, strong free throw shooter

Weaknesses: Needs serious work on his jump shot, played just 12 games beyond high school

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: High

13. James Bouknight, G, UConn

Strengths: Silky scorer with a wide variety of skills, great ball-handler, plays bigger than 6'4"

Weaknesses: Injury concerns throughout his career, spotty defender

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

14. Chris Duarte, G, Oregon

Strengths: Efficient scorer, ideal size and can defend multiple positions, mature leader

Weaknesses: Already 24 years old, limited athleticism

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

15. Isaiah Jackson, F/C, Kentucky

Strengths: Athletic big who can run the floor, already a skilled rim protector, can eat up rebounds

Weaknesses: Still very limited offensively, needs to develop at least a mid-range jumper

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

16. Ziaire Williams, F, Stanford

Strengths: Great ball-handler for his size, long and athletic, defensive upside

Weaknesses: Still limited offensively, needs to add muscle to his frame

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

17. Usman Garuba, F, Spain

Strengths: Ferocious rebounder, defensive versatility, high energy player

Weaknesses: Suspect shooter, poor at free throw line, foul trouble issues

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

18. Kai Jones, F/C, Texas

Strengths: Bouncy athlete, runs the floor very well for his size, potentially dominant in pick-and-roll

Weaknesses: Post moves need work, lacks any shooting stroke

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

19. Cam Thomas, G/F, LSU

Strengths: Dominant isolation scorer, loves to take and make difficult shots, thrives in just about any offense

Weaknesses: Must continue to improve from three-point range, some defensive question marks

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

20. Jalen Johnson, F, Duke

Strengths: Good size and versatility, can get to the rim and finish through contact, defensive potential

Weaknesses: Poor shooting mechanics, is he a team player?

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

21. Tre Mann, G, Florida

Strengths: Fearless, pure scoring ability, improved significantly from freshman to sophomore season, decent defender

Weaknesses: Still awfully streaky, thin frame for an NBA two-guard

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

22. Alperen Sengun, F/C, Turkey

Strengths: Plays larger than his 6'9" build, intelligent and physical rebounder, polished skill moves for his age

Weaknesses: Fairly average athleticism, questionable in defending pick-and-roll

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

23. Greg Brown, F, Texas

Strengths: Possibly the best pure athlete in this class, explosive dunker, quality defender

Weaknesses: Extremely raw offensively, jump shot is nearly non-existent

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: High

24. Keon Johnson, G, Tennessee

Strengths: Natural athlete, two-way potential, still learning the game after beginning playing in high school

Weaknesses: Not a great free throw shooter, will not space the floor, simply didn't produce as much as hoped in college

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: High

25. Jared Butler, G/F, Baylor

Strengths: Proven leader who makes winning basketball plays, consistent shooting threat, good steal numbers in college

Weaknesses: Average athlete compared to his peers, undersized for the pros

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

26. Trey Murphy, F, Virginia

Strengths: Can play both forward spots and offers a seven-foot wingspan, fluid athlete, strong shooter

Weaknesses: Has a tendency to disappear offensively, not a shot creator at this point in his career

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

27. Ayo Dosunmu, G/F, Illinois

Strengths: Electrifying playmaker and scorer, explosive first step, clutch player able to make big shots

Weaknesses: Turnovers are a problem, forces too many passes and shots

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

28. Isaiah Todd, F, G League

Strengths: Good build with powerful finishing ability, decent passer for his position, will continue to grow on offense

Weaknesses: Streaky scorer, tweener right now without a defined role

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

29. Josh Christopher, G/F, Arizona State

Strengths: Superb athlete and finisher, extremely effective in transition, can hit difficult shots

Weaknesses: Simply didn't produce as much as hoped in one season at Tempe, shooting numbers were poor

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

30. B.J. Boston, G/F, Kentucky

Strengths: Shot creator willing to take anything, decent three-point shooter, instant offense

Weaknesses: Extremely inconsistent, forces his teammates into trouble with decision-making

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

31. Charles Bassey, F, Western Kentucky

Strengths: Moves extremely well for his size, elite shot-blocker, can occasionally space the floor

Weaknesses: Didn't quite make the jump throughout his collegiate career you would like to have seen, some injury concerns

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

32. Nah'Shon Hyland, G, VCU

Strengths: Good shooting numbers throughout college, acrobatic finisher underneath, defensive playmaking

Weaknesses: Extremely undersized, not a great passer for his position

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

33. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, F, Villanova

Strengths: Size and skillset to play multiple positions, superb rebounder, strong midrange shooter

Weaknesses: Still working on three-point range, streaky shooter overall

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

34. Day'Ron Sharpe, F/C, UNC

Strengths: Imposing, physical build, ferocious offensive rebounder, potential to be an elite rim protector

Weaknesses: Offensive game is very limited, poor at the free throw line, prone to foul trouble

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: High

35. Miles McBride, G, West Virginia

Strengths: Capable scorer who shoots good numbers, strong passer, pesky on-ball defender

Weaknesses: Unclear position at the next level, very undersized

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

36. Joshua Primo, G, Alabama

Strengths: Great spot-up shooter, powerful finisher at the rim, still just 18 years old

Weaknesses: Not a great distributor for his position, streaky three-point shooter

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Moderate

37. Jaden Springer, G, Tennessee

Strengths: Energetic defender, capable contributor both on and off-ball, good three-point shooting numbers in small sample

Weaknesses: Unclear positional fit, not a shot creator 

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

38. Austin Reaves, G, Oklahoma

Strengths: Crafty offensive player, confident shooter who can heat up in a hurry, quality playmaker who doesn't turn the ball over often

Weaknesses: Shooting numbers just weren't there this past season, already 23 years old with limited ceiling

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Low

39. Quentin Grimes, G/F, Houston

Strengths: Former big-time recruit who had a tremendous career at Houston, quick and smooth jump shot, passionate player

Weaknesses: Free throw shooting could improve, can force up shots when hurried

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

40. Joel Ayayi, PG, Gonzaga

Strengths: Good size, slippery offensive specimen, elite rebounder for his position, proven college pedigree

Weaknesses: Three-point and free throw shooting needs improvement, needs to bulk up

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Moderate

College Football Preview 2021: 13. Iowa Hawkeyes

Tyler Goodson, Iowa

 13. Iowa Hawkeyes

The skill positions are extremely talented and the defense will be stingy enough to deliver a Big Ten West Title

2020 Review

Following a tumultuous off-season, Iowa's 0-2 start in 2020 could have spiraled into disaster. However, the Hawkeyes responded in a big way, winning their next three games by 20 or more points. They capped off their regular season with a 28-7 dismantling of Wisconsin, and they would've had a shot to play for a Big Ten Title if not for the one-point loss to Northwestern in the second week of the year. Cancellations against Michigan and then Missouri in the bowl game was an abrupt finish to the season but considering the start, a 6-2 record was an incredible accomplishment. With a normal off-season and plenty of talent returning, even greater things could be ahead in '21.

2021 Outlook

Offense: The Hawkeyes were forced to replace a three-year starter in Nate Stanley prior to 2020 and naturally, had a difficult job in doing so. Spencer Petras won the job out of camp and ended up starting all eight, but never looked completely comfortable in the role. He finished with 1,569 yards and nine touchdowns but also threw five interceptions with a 57% completion percentage. Further experience should help, but he missed some routine throws last fall that raised eyebrows.

It will be interesting to see whether any of the other quarterbacks on the roster can push Petras. Alex Padilla saw action in two games last fall, while Deuce Hogan was the quarterback they brought in during the 2020 cycle. The edge in experience for Petras is important and he doesn't have to be an All-League QB for this offense to be successful. Iowa would be just fine with him cutting down on the interceptions and throwing for a higher completion percentage.

After two productive years, it's about time for Tyler Goodson to evolve into a true superstar. He became the first Iowa true freshman to lead the team in rushing back in 2019 and then built on it with a 762-yard 2020 season. Goodson put up those numbers splitting time with a pair of veterans in Mekhi Sargent and Toren Young, but both are now gone, clearing the path for huge numbers from Goodson. His vision and patience is something we've seen from past Hawkeye backs, but the explosiveness in the open field is truly special. 

The Hawkeyes are still likely to rotate in a change-of-pace back or two, even though Goodson has shown he can be a workhorse. Junior Ivory Kelly-Martin gained 54 yards buried on the depth chart last fall, but appears ready for a larger role. This is also a program that isn't afraid to use their fullbacks, so keep an eye on sophomore Monte Pottebaum.

Iowa's receiver group last fall might have been their best in school history, with several headliners and plenty of depth. Ihmir Smith-Marsette was the type of game-breaker this offense has often lacked, but he is off to the NFL. Even so, the Hawkeyes have quality options waiting in the wings, including Nico Ragaini and Tyrone Tracy. Tracy is the type of dynamic playmaker that could help open things up, while Ragaini has flashed serious upside, but was unable to build on a strong 2019. True freshmen Arland Bruce and Keagan Johnson both enrolled for the spring and could be counted on to make an immediate impact.

Few schools in the nation have as proven of a pedigree at producing elite tight ends as Iowa. In just the past half-decade, they've sent names like George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, and Noah Fant all to the NFL. Sophomore Sam LaPorta is looking to become the next great weapon at the position and he has shown promise in his young career. With that being said, LaPorta did have struggles with drops in 2020, which will have to be solved.

Head coach Kirk Ferentz specializes on the offensive line, and has sent 17 offensive linemen to the pros during his time in Iowa City. This particular O-Line group isn't as experienced as past editions, but it should still be a strength. Center Tyler Lindebaum is likely to dot preseason All-American and Outland Trophy watchlists. He will be the anchor of the unit, but the tackle spots will have to be figured out. Sophomore Jack Plumb made two starts at right tackle last fall and is the early favorite to start at left tackle, while redshirt freshman Nick DeJong is the favorite on the right side. Even with some question marks, this is always a unit you feel comfortable with at Iowa.

Don't expect this Iowa offense to look much different than past editions. They'll play ball control, run the ball, and be very physical in the trenches. Having a weapon like Tyler Goodson is likely to make it more exciting, but this offense really needs Petras to take a step forward. Again, he doesn't need to put up gaudy numbers for them to be successful, but has to be more consistent than he was in 2020. 

Defense: Iowa's defense remains among the most consistently strong anywhere in the country. They currently are riding a 22 game streak  allowing less than 25 points to opponents. With plenty of familiar faces returning, expect that streak to continue deep into 2021.

The defensive line will undergo a transition after losing key cogs Chauncey Golston and Daviyon Nixon, but five of the top eight return. The ends should still be in a very good spot, with veteran Zach VanValkenburg manning one spot and sophomore John Waggoner the favorite on the other. VanValkenburg finished with 3.5 sacks and five tackles for loss in 2020 and should have no issues stepping into a leading role. Waggoner has played in 14 games over the last two seasons, but don't be surprised if he's pushed by freshman Deontae Craig, who arrived on campus prior to last season. The larger concern is on the interior, where Nixon played such a huge role. Expect names like Yahya Black, Noah Shannon, and Logan Lee to rotate into the mix. Lee is a converted tight end who saw limited action last fall but gets a full off-season to acclimate to defensive tackle.

Nick Niemann is a notable loss at linebacker, as the long-time linebacker finished first on the team with 77 tackles last year. However, the 2021 group may actually be more talented, with a pair of sophomores set to lead the charge. Seth Benson finished just behind Niemann with 47 tackles in '20 and is back to start at outside linebacker. Jack Campbell is slated to take over Niemann's spot at MLB after making a big leap last year. After just five tackles the year prior, Campbell totaled 29 tackles and 4.5 TFL in 2020. At 6'5", 243 pounds, Campbell is the type of physical linebacker that fits the Iowa mold.

The real strength of the defense lies in the secondary. Although it may not be as naturally talented as some other groups in the Big Ten, expect it to challenge as the league's best. Both corners, veterans Riley Moss and Matt Hankins, return. They're both similar builds as well-rounded, instinctive defenders that don't shy away from the opposing team's best players. Behind them are a pair of stud safeties in Jack Koerner and Kaevon Merriweather. Koerner is a former walk-on who has emerged as a real leader on the back-end of the Hawkeye defense. He led the team with 81 tackles in 2019 and then added 45 more last fall, while showcasing playmaking potential, with three interceptions. Merriweather is another lightly recruited defensive back who has quickly adjusted to life in the Big Ten. He redshirted in 2019 but made five starts last season and is slated to be the starting strong safety this fall. 

Defensive coordinator Phil Parker enters his tenth season in the role equipped with yet another veteran-laden and well-coached defense. There may not be as much NFL talent as past Hawkeye groups but there's little question it should be an elite group. It will once again challenge as one of the best in the Big Ten.

Special Teams: Ultra-reliable kicker Keith Duncan moves on after going 14-18 on field goals last season. That leave senior Caleb Shudak as the default starter after spending most of his previous time with Iowa as their kickoff specialist. Punter is certainly a strength, with Tory Taylor coming back after earning All-Big Ten honors in 2020. The return game will need to reload, as Smith-Marsette was always a threat to take it to the house.

Bottom Line: The job that this staff and entire program did following a rocky 2020 off-season was extremely impressive, even without considering all the other major complications caused by COVID-19. The momentum this team earned at the conclusion of 2020 should serve them well as they push into this fall. Nearly all the trademarks of past successful Hawkeye teams are in place, from a stud tailback, to a strong offensive line, to an experienced, loaded defense. The key for this particular group will be handling a tough slate to begin the year that includes a home tilt with Indiana and the Cy-Hawk rivalry in Ames. They'll also have to finish off close games better than they have other the last two seasons. In 2020, their two losses were by a combined five points. In 2019, their three losses were by a combined 14 points. If they can do that, they are my pick to win the Big Ten West and challenge Ohio State for the conference crown.

Further Breakdown

Team Projections

Projected Record: 10-3 (8-1 Big Ten, Lose Big Ten Championship Game)

Offensive MVP: RB Tyler Goodson

Defensive MVP: S Jack Koerner

Breakout Player of the Year: TE Sam LaPorta

Impact Freshman: WR Keagan Johnson

Recruiting Breakdown

The Hawkeyes finished with a strong 2021 Class, finishing 24th nationally and highlighted by seven four-stars. Unsurprisingly, this group is especially strong along the trenches, but there's also nice skill position talent sprinkled in. Offensive tackle David Davidkov and interior linemen Connor Colby are two guys that are built to play right away, but will likely have to wait their turn. Davidkov could factor into the left tackle position battle that should be an interesting watch through fall camp. Keagan Johnson and Arland Bruce IV are important gets, adding much-needed athleticism to this roster. Johnson is technically an athlete who could play several different roles, but he's most natural at wide out. The quarterback the Hawkeyes took in this cycle was three-star Joey Labas, a former Ball State commit. It will be interesting to see whether he can eventually factor into the quarterback competition in the long-term, but with three current signal-callers on the roster all in their first or second years on the roster, it won't be in 2021.

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2021: 14. Florida Gators

Kaiir Elam, Florida

 14. Florida Gators

The offense will need to reload, but an improved defense will keep the Gators in SEC East contention

2020 Review

After going 8-1 to begin the 2020 campaign, Florida went into their final few weeks in serious contention for the program's first ever Playoff berth. However, the Gators were then shocked by LSU in Gainesville in one of the most chaotic games of the season, likely killing any chances at earning a spot in the four-team field. They responded by giving Alabama their toughest game of the season in the SEC Championship Game, but still ended up coming up short. In the Cotton Bowl, with a major chunk of their team opted out to prepare for the NFL, the Gators were blown out by five touchdowns to a scorching hot Oklahoma team. The three consecutive losses left the program with a bad taste in their mouth as they prepare for the 2021 campaign. 

2021 Outlook

Offense: Quarterback Kyle Trask was a great story over the last two seasons for the Gators. He was a backup for several years and waited his turn before finally getting an opportunity in 2019 when Feleipe Franks went down with injury. He was able to build on that with a Heisman-level 2020, in which he threw for 4,283 yards and 43 touchdowns. Unfortunately for Florida, Trask is now off playing on Sundays, meaning that head coach Dan Mullen will need a new guy to run his show.

The obvious favorite to take over is redshirt junior Emory Jones, who has seen playing time each of the last few seasons. Jones is a much different quarterback than Trask; his arm leaves a little bit too be desired, but he's an elite athlete whose legs add an interesting element to this offense. However, don't be surprised if redshirt frosh Anthony Richardson ends up pushing him. The Gainesville native flashed some upside in garbage time of the Cotton Bowl.

The Gator offense has really lacked a ground game the last few seasons, ranking as one of the worst in the SEC in 2020. They have talent at the position, but it's unclear who the feature guy is at this point. Seniors Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis both have played a lot of snaps, with Pierce finishing as the top rusher a year ago. Looking to push them are a pair of former transfers from the ACC: Demarkcus Bowman and Lorenzo Lingard. Both were former five-star recruits who just never got an opportunity to show what they could do at their original schools, Clemson and Miami. Bowman transferred out a matter of weeks into his freshman season, but has serious potential. 

Although the quarterback situation certainly needs to be ironed out, the biggest question mark on this offense is at receiver. The Gators had a trio of elite pass-catchers in 2020, all with different strengths. Kadarius Toney was the ultra-versatile game-breaker on the perimeter, Kyle Pitts was the nation's best tight end and a touchdown machine, while Trevon Grimes was a highly reliable, traditional wide out. With all three gone, the Gators must turn to a group of Justin Shorter, Xzavier Henderson, Jacob Copeland, and Trent Whittemore. Shorter is technically their top returning receiver in the position group, but the former Penn State transfer has struggled to live up to the hype he received coming out of high school. My bet is a breakout from Henderson, a speedster with serious yards after catch potential.

Pitts will go down as one of the best tight ends in school history, becoming the first at his position to finish in the Top 10 of Heisman voting since 1977. Junior Keon Zipperer stepped into his role in the Cotton Bowl and should be the favorite to start, while senior Kemore Gamble will also feature. It will be interesting to see what role the position plays; is the Mullen offense becoming a breeding ground for successful tight ends, or was Pitts a special case?

The offensive line was average in 2020, but should be better this fall. Seniors Stewart Reese and Jean DeLance are crucial returnees, with Reese anchoring at center and DeLance at tackle. Neither guard spot is settled at this point in the off-season, which could lead to some interesting competition in fall camp.

It will be awfully difficult to replicate last year's offensive numbers, when Florida finished with a Top 10 offense and the top passing attack in the nation. There's definitely talent here, but a lot of it is unproven at this point. Mullen has earned a reputation as an elite offensive mind, and this year could be the time to show it.

Defense: Once the unquestioned strength of the Florida program, the Gator defense took a major step back in 2020. They allowed nearly 31 points per game, their worst mark since World War II, and also had the 100th ranked pass defense. The pressure is on for coordinator Todd Grantham, a longtime Mullen assistant who is one of the higher-paid coordinators in the game.

The defensive line should be solid, even if it's short on big-name stars. Senior end Zachary Carter is the team's top pass rusher, coming back after a five-sack 2020 season. On the inside, a pair of former transfers, Daquan Newkirk and Antonio Shelton, are likely to start. Newkirk comes over from SEC foe Auburn, while Shelton comes south from Penn State. Shelton played in 40 games during his PSU career, but will need some time to adjust to the SEC. Don't be surprised if former five-star recruit Gervon Dexter begins to emerge as a contributor on the interior. He didn't see much action last fall, but the coaching staff has raved about his potential.

The linebacker corps has a chance to be very, very good, although depth could be a concern. Junior Brenton Cox is a pure pass rusher who has attracted NFL Draft attention playing at the "Buck" end/linebacker spot. He was dismissed from his first stop, Georgia, but seems to have acclimated nicely to Gainesville. Returning next to him are steady veterans Ventrell Miller and Mohamoud Diabate, who finished No. 1 and 2 in tackles on the Gators last year. Senior Jeremiah Moon last his spot when Cox came on but returned for a sixth year, likely backing him up, while Diwun Black should also find a role. Black was a big-name recruit in 2019 but due to eligibility problems, never enrolled. He instead played the last two seasons at Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College and now returns as the top linebacker coming up from the JUCO ranks.

Although losing C.J. Henderson certainly played a role, it was still surprising how bad Florida's pass defense was in 2020. Not only did they let up a bunch of yardage, they also let up the most touchdown passes by a wide margin. The unit has the potential to be better this fall, although there are several notable names missing. Junior Kaiir Elam emerged as the team's most consistent coverage option in 2020 and has a chance to be a Jim Thorpe Award candidate. However, it's unclear who will start opposite him at corner, with junior Jaydon Hill and true freshman Jason Marshall Jr. set to compete. Marshall's the top recruit in the '21 Class and impressed in the spring, but can he handle the SEC in his first year on campus? 

Trey Dean III came on and played a key role for the Gator secondary in both 2018 and 2019, but saw his playing time decrease in a big way last season. With several pieces gone, expect Dean to step into the starting strong safety position, where he will play an important leadership role. Free safety is set to be a competition between sophomores Mordecai McDaniel and Rashad Torrence II.

The defense simply has to be better in 2021, and there's enough talent here for Grantham to have a really strong unit. The secondary is still the primary concern and while Elam and Dean are key returnees, the lack of proven experience behind them is a real worry. We will see just how improved this group is early on, as they face Alabama in mid-September.

Special Teams: Evan McPherson moves on at kicker following a 2020 in which he was 17-22 on field goal attempts. Luckily, the Gators have a proven option waiting in the wings in former Mississippi State transfer Jace Christmann. Christmann, who once kicked for Mullen while in Starkville, went 32-40 in his MSU career. Punter is slightly concerning as of right now, and we will have to see what becomes of the UF return game.

Bottom Line: It's difficult to effectively evaluate Florida's weird 2020 season. They won the SEC East for the first time in the Mullen era and were in the Playoff race until the very end, but going 8-4 with generational talent like Pitts seems underwhelming. Expect the 2021 group to be more consistent overall, but both sides of the ball have questions. The offense will have to find out whether Emory Jones is really ready to step in for Kyle Trask, and the receiver group leaves something to be desired. Defensively, the front seven should be stout, but it's hard to imagine the secondary being good enough to keep up with some of the SEC's elites. A slight step back from the reigning division champs may be expected, but Mullen has proven he can build winners no matter the roster construction. The schedule should also be a help, as the Gators get a bye before their huge meeting with Georgia in Jacksonville, and the November slate is very favorable, assuming Florida State is still in a rebuilding mode. With this schedule working in their favor, the Gators may be worse overall than the 2020 team but actually end up winning more games.

Further Breakdown

Team Projections

Projected Record: 9-3 (5-3 SEC)

Offensive MVP: RB Dameon Pierce

Defensive MVP: CB Kaiir Elam

Breakout Player of the Year: WR Xzavier Henderson

Impact Freshman: CB Jason Marshall Jr.

Recruiting Breakdown

Mullen and this staff's recruiting has been criticized, but the 2021 group is strong across the board. It ranks 12th nationally, which comes in at fifth in the SEC. Corner Jason Marshall Jr. is the headliner as a five-star prospect from the Miami area and due to the team's need at corner, expect him to see immediate action. Fellow secondary pieces Corey Collier Jr. and Donovan McMillon may also see action this fall, particularly Collier. Collier was high school teammates with Marshall, both coming from powerhouse Miami Palmetto. Another name to watch is quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, coming from the state of Georgia. He's got a huge arm and could be a nice fit in a Mullen offense, but it would be a shock to see him playing at all this fall.

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2021: 15. Miami Hurricanes

D'Eriq King, Miami

 15. Miami Hurricanes

An explosive offense and improved defense gives the 'Canes a real shot at the ACC Coastal Title

2020 Review

Following a frustrating 2019, head coach Manny Diaz chose to switch things up offensively, bringing in a pair of big-name additions from the American Athletic Conference in coordinator Rhett Lashlee and QB D'Eriq King. The moves paid immediate dividends, with Miami starting off 2020 8-1, with their lone loss coming to the league's superpower, Clemson. The offense continued to play well in their next two games, but terrible defensive showings led to Miami losses, leaving them with an 8-3 overall record. King announced prior to the Cheez-It Bowl that he planned to return for a fifth year in 2021, but tore his ACL in the loss to Oklahoma State. His health will be at the front of everyone's minds as we inch closer to the start of the '21 season.

2021 Outlook

Offense: There's little denying how impactful the additions of Lashlee and King were to this offense. The group was significantly more explosive, fast-paced, and fun to watch, with the numbers backing up the decision. The Hurricanes ranked fourth in the ACC in scoring and just missed out on the Top 25, coming in 26th nationally.

King had no issues with the transition from Group of Five football to Power Five. He totaled over 3,000 yards of total offense and finished with 27 total touchdowns, finishing second on the team in rushing. The ACL injury was a major blow to a guy who could still have an outside shot at a Heisman run, but the timing means that he could still start the 2021 season, which opens September 4th against Alabama. If not, Miami will be forced to turn to a very unproven quarterback room, without an obvious backup now that N'Kosi Perry and Tate Martell have transferred. Tyler Van Dyke saw playing time in two games last fall so he has the very slight edge in "experience", but true freshman Jake Garcia could also vie for snaps. 

Even with King's running ability, Miami didn't record as strong of rushing numbers as they would've liked in 2020. Expect better production this fall, as the position group is deep and talented, while running behind a quality offensive line. Junior Cam'Ron Harris was the top option a season ago and will enter '21 as the feature guy. He proved to be the most explosive weapon the team has at running back and he also recorded 10 touchdowns. Don Chaney Jr. and Jaylan Knighton return as well, two guys who could see expanded roles. They were used primarily as third down backs or situational pieces in 2020, but have the potential to do much more.

The receiver corps had their moments last year, but also dealt with a barrage of drops. The group remains pretty much intact, although they did say goodbye to tight end Brevin Jordan, one of the best at his position in the country. Senior Mike Harley led the team in receptions and yards in 2020 and has a chance to break some of Miami's all-time receiving numbers. Also back are juniors Dee Wiggins and Mark Pope, who provide solid support on the outside. The name to watch is Oklahoma transfer Charleston Rambo, who had 743 yards in 2019 but couldn't build on those numbers last season. Rambo is talented enough to be a very impactful transfer on offense, and he could also help out on special teams.

While a lot of Miami's offensive growth was credited to King and Lashlee, the offensive line's improvement was also crucial. It went from one of the ACC's worst to one of the conference's best, and now four starters are back. The headliner is redshirt sophomore Zion Nelson at left tackle, who showed tremendous growth last season and has now earned NFL Draft attention. At right tackle, former Houston transfer Jarrid Williams joined back up with King and has made an impact, while junior center Corey Gaynor anchors the middle.

Obviously King's health is at the front of everyone's minds as the Hurricane offense prepares for 2021. The good news is that even if he's unable to go to begin the year or not 100 percent, Miami has enough offensive pieces to put up points. If the receiver room can cut out the drops, it could rival teams like Clemson and North Carolina as the ACC's best.

Defense: Manny Diaz has his roots on the defensive side of the ball, but the Hurricane defense was awfully disappointing in 2020. Their numbers weren't atrocious, but the group played their worst ball against the best competition, including being ran all over by UNC in the regular season finale. Diaz decided to take matters into his own hands, shuffling up the coaching staff and taking over as the play-caller. He has earned a reputation as an aggressive defensive mind, so expect this Miami group to attack future opponents.

The top priority for Diaz and the entire defensive staff should be figuring out the rush defense. It was easily the worst part of this defense in 2020 and will need to be improved. The defensive line has to be better and there is several key names returning. Veterans Nesta Jade Silvera and Jonathan Ford are key returnees inside, but it's unclear how the Hurricanes will replace NFL-bound pass rushers Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche. Zach McCloud, a three-year starter at linebacker who is back for his sixth year on campus, is expected to move to defensive end and fight for a starting job. He was a key cog for this rush defense from 2016-2018 but redshirted in 2019 and then gained an extra year of eligibility due to COVID-19. Who starts opposite him at end is unclear, although senior Deandre Johnson appears to be the early favorite.

The linebacker group also has to be better and there's reason to believe that it will be. Junior Bradley Jennings Jr. and sophomore Gilbert Frierson are both returning and will start. Jennings was quiet his first two years in Coral Gables before emerging last year, while Frierson is a playmaker at the "Striker" position who finished third on the team in tackles, with 53. Depth is a potential concern with this group, which may become a factor the deeper we get into the season.

In the secondary, the Hurricanes retain most of their key pieces and also add a big-name transfer in Tyrique Stevenson. Stevenson looked like he would contend for a starting spot with Georgia this year but instead decided to head to the ACC, where he's likely to start right away. Joining him at corner will be a pair of juniors, D.J. Ivey and Al Blades Jr., who both have played a healthy amount of snaps in their 'Canes career so far. Sophomore Te'Cory Couch came on strong late in 2020 and should also vie for playing time.

Safety Bubba Bolden didn't receive quite as much fanfare as King, Phillips, or Roche when he transferred to Miami from USC, but he provedto be just as impactful. He ended up leading the team in tackles with 74 and proved to be their most consistent defender. His versatility and natural instincts make him the ideal defensive back for a defensive coach like Diaz. The starter joining him at safety is unclear, with junior Gurvan Hall Jr. and redshirt freshman Avantae Williams competing for the starting gig. Senior Amari Carter will also factor into this secondary after notching 53 tackles a season ago, while true freshman James Williams was a huge recruit who comes from nearby American Heritage High School.

Even though losing Roche and Phillips may hurt the Miami pass rush, the defense as a whole should be improved. The front seven has more experience than in year's past, and the secondary will be good, particularly with new DB coach Travaris Robinson in town.

Special Teams: Kicker Jose Borregales is a huge loss on special teams, a former transfer from Florida International who earned All-American honors after going 20-22 on field goals. The Hurricanes are hoping his younger brother, true freshman Andre Borregales, can come on and replace his older brother. Punter Lou Hedley is a Ray Guy Award contender who averaged over 47 yards per punt last season. He's one of college football's most intriguing personalties at the position, looking more like a linebacker than punter at 6'4", 225 pounds.

Bottom Line: Miami made improvements across the board in Year Two of the Diaz era, but the blowout losses to Clemson and UNC inside the conference showed that there's still room for growth. The return of both King and Lashlee offensively ensures this group will be explosive once again, but the defense will determine whether this is simply a "good" Miami team or one that can contend for an ACC Title. The Hurricanes are talented enough to win the Coastal, but the non-conference schedule will serve as a true measuring stick of what this program is capable of. Not only do they open the season playing against college football's best program in Alabama, they also welcome a sneaky Appalachian State team and a Power Five foe in Michigan State to Coral Gables. Surviving that trio of games and then pushing for a division title will be difficult, but not completely out of the question.

Further Breakdown

Team Projections

Projected Record: 9-3 (6-2 ACC)

Offensive MVP: QB D'Eriq King

Defensive MVP: S Bubba Bolden

Breakout Player of the Year: CB Tyrique Stevenson

Impact Freshman: S James Williams

Recruiting Breakdown

Although Miami's work in the transfer portal has received significant attention, the staff continues to do a great job on the high school recruiting trail. They landed the 11th-rated group in the Class of 2021, coming in second in the ACC behind only Clemson. Five-star prospects Leonard Taylor and James Williams are candidates to see immediate action, even at positions that are generally considered strengths for the Hurricanes. Quarterback Jake Garcia is a former USC commit who transferred all the way from California to Georgia after his high school cancelled their season. He's a high four-star recruit who will surely factor into the quarterback competition with King's health currently a question. Other names to watch include tight end Elijah Arroyo and athlete Chase Smith. Arroyo was a nice pickup from the state of Texas who has all the tools to be a tremendous weapon in the passing game, while Smith is incredibly versatile and could line up just about anywhere for the Hurricanes.

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2021: 16. Penn State Nittany Lions

Noah Cain, Penn State

 

16. Penn State Nittany Lions

PSU's four-game win streak to end the disastrous 2020 should provide the momentum they need to return to Big Ten Title contention

2020 Review

Penn State opened up the shortened Big Ten season with a heartbreaking, controversial overtime loss to Indiana. The early season loss seemed to cripple PSU's drive and motivation the entire rest of the way, and they opened up the year with five consecutive losses. James Franklin and staff were eventually able to right the ship and the Nittany Lions recovered to win their final four games, including a beatdown of Illinois in mid-December. The frustrating 4-5 mark forced Franklin to reconsider the program and its path towards contention in the tough Big Ten East. He shuffled up his coaching staff, brought in several transfers at need positions, and will hope for better luck on the injury department heading into 2021.

2021 Outlook

Offense: Franklin brought in Kirk Ciarrocca from Minnesota to run the offense prior to the 2020 season after Ricky Rahne took the head coaching job at Old Dominion. Although Penn State's offensive numbers were solid across the board, the relationship between Franklin and Ciarrocca was rocky. Franklin ended up to move on from Ciarrocca after just nine games running the offense, choosing to replace him with former Oklahoma State and Texas OC Mike Yurcich.

Yurcich has leaned on explosive, aerial offensive attacks during his time calling plays. His offensive style should be reminiscent of former coordinator Joe Moorhead, who helped PSU secure a Big Ten Title before taking over at Mississippi State. But, in order for the offense to work, the Nittany Lions need better production from the quarterback position.

Veteran QB Sean Clifford has put up solid numbers during his two seasons as starter, but still leaves a little to be desired. He has struggled against the top competition the league has to offer, and turnovers have been an occasional issue. One would imagine that he might be pushed through fall camp, but there aren't any obvious contenders to take his job now that backup Will Levis has transferred. Redshirt sophomore Ta'Quan Roberson might be able to give him a run for his job, but it's highly unlikely.

The running back position was crippled by injuries in 2020, but now may be among the deepest in the entire country. Sophomore Keyvone Lee took advantage of the injuries in front of him on the depth chart and led the team with 438 yards and four touchdowns. He'll get plenty of opportunities again in 2021, but Devyn Ford and Noah Cain could overtake him. Cain has proven to be an absolute workhorse when healthy, and is the most talented tailback on the roster. The staff also brought in fifth-year senior John Lovett from Baylor over the off-season, only adding to the depth. Lovett never put up gaudy numbers while in Waco, but proved to be a playmaking threat, especially as a pass-catcher.

The absence of K.J. Hamler was another reason why the offense struggled to create explosive plays in 2020. Jahan Dotson came on and proved that he could be a real go-to guy, but will need others to continue improving around him. Dotson tallied 884 yards and eight touchdowns last fall and became well-known around the college football landscape for amazing, acrobatic catches. Parker Washington proved to be a nice complement, finishing with 489 yards of his own. While Dotson is more of your traditional, perimeter receiver, Washington is Hamler-esque in his ability to weave through traffic and make things happen over the middle. Beyond those two, the depth chart is fairly light, although KeAndre Lambert-Smith showed flashes a year ago. Cam Sullivan-Brown and Daniel George are two players who have been in the program for a long time and are still waiting for their respective breakouts.

Penn State has become a breeding ground for talented tight ends in recent years, sending Mike Gesicki and Pat Freiermuth to the NFL in recent years. Freiermuth was one of the nation's top players at his position, but he played in just four games last fall. Now that he's gone, PSU turns to either Theo Johnson or Brenton Strange. Johnson in particular is a name to keep an eye on; he's a tremendous athlete for his position and had some moments in 2020, even in very limited opportunities.

The offensive line was good but far from great during the 2020 campaign. Three starters are back, but the two that the Nittany Lions lost are significant, in program staples Michael Menet and Will Fries. Left tackle Rasheed Walker is a huge returnee; he could have gone pro and been a fairly high NFL Draft selection, but instead opted to return for a redshirt junior season. He's grown significantly since being thrust into the role as a young blocker. Caedan Wallace will handle duties at right tackle, while junior Mike Miranda is back at center.

Terrible injury luck and a COVID year, mixed altogether with a new offensive coordinator, unsurprisingly led to frustrating results for this offense in 2020. Even so, they weren't some complete disaster, finishing second in the Big Ten and Top 40 nationally in total offense. Yurcich brings a proven pedigree to the table, and the Nittany Lions have plenty of weapons at the skill positions. Whether or not it can truly take the next step and be an elite group will hinge on Clifford.

Defense: Considering PSU lost their best defender just weeks before a wacky 2020 season, it also wasn't a shock their defense took some lumps. They were still solid themselves, ranking in the Top 30 in total defense, rush defense, and pass defense.

The big concern for this group entering 2021 is the defensive line. Shaka Toney and Jayson Oweh are both off to the NFL, while tackle Antonio Shelton transferred to Florida. The lone returning starter is senior P.J. Mustipher, a quality defender, but far from a star. Mustipher at least provides proven run stuffing abilities in the middle, coming off a 2020 in which he racked up 35 tackles, but the end spots are really concerning. Sophomore Smith Vilbert and junior Adisa Isaac look set to battle it out on one side, while Temple transfer Arnold Ebiketie gets the first crack at the opposite spot. Ebiketie had six sacks over the last two seasons for Temple, but isn't the typical type of player you usually see lining up at end for PSU.

Losing a star like Parsons a matter of weeks before the season proved to be awfully difficult for Penn State, even at a school that prides itself on being "Linebacker U". The linebacker corps was able to gain valuable experience without Parsons, which should serve them well in 2021. Seniors Ellis Brooks and Jesse Luketa led the team in tackles, with 60 and 59 respectively. Luketa played outside linebacker last fall due to the absence of Parsons, but the staff appears ready to move him back inside, which is his more natural position. The move could mean that Luketa and Brooks essentially split time at middle linebacker, with Brandon Smith and Curtis Jacobs the likely starters on the outside. Jacobs came on as a highly touted recruit last season and flashed enough for the staff to be excited about what he can bring. Depth could be an issue in this unit, with a lack of proven commodities beyond those four.

The greatest weak spot on Penn State's 11-2 team in 2019 was the pass defense, which ranked among the Big Ten's worst. They managed to swing a major turnaround in 2020, ranking second in the league in pass defense. The group could be even better this fall, thanks to plenty of returning talent and a healthy Tariq Castro-Fields. Fields has been a real playmaker when healthy, but missed over half of the 2020 campaign. He will be helped at corner by redshirt sophomore Joey Porter Jr., a potential breakout candidate. Porter, the son of the longtime NFL linebacker, finished with 33 tackles and four pass deflections. He showcased impressive closing speed and natural instincts that should only get better with more Big Ten football under his belt. Those two should lean the way, but depth is also a concern here. Don't be surprised if true freshman Kalen King sees plenty of snaps in Year One. He comes from Detroit area powerhouse Cass Tech, along with his brother Kobe, a linebacker.

Senior safety Jaquan Brisker is also a huge returnee, coming off a season in which he evolved into one of the Big Ten's premier safeties. A former junior college transfer, Brisker still struggles with consistency, but looked like he turned a corner at the end of 2020. Perhaps the most notable question mark in the secondary is at free safety. Senior Jonathan Sunderland has a good chance to win the job, as he's played in 35 games during his PSU career.

Although the defensive line will undergo a transition this fall, Penn State's back-seven should keep them in every game they play. Forcing turnovers, once a real strength of this defense, needs to be of higher priority in 2021 after the team finished 112th nationally in turnover margin last season.

Special Teams: Jake Pinegar and Jordan Stout split time at placekicker in 2020 with mixed results, as they combined for 11 of 18 on field goals. Pinegar will hope for more success as he takes the lead role, while Stout will also split time at punter. Jahan Dotson is a factor in the return game but PSU might be cautious to use him for fear of injury.

Bottom Line: Prior to last season's shocking drop-off, Penn State had gone four straight seasons of at least nine wins and had finished ranked in the Top 10 three out of those four years. Needless to say, last year's drop to sub-.500 seems more like the result of a weird season, combined with injuries and a new offensive coordinator. A return to normal should be expected, although the 2021 season won't be without challenges. For one, the Nittany Lions open the year on the road at Wisconsin and then welcome Auburn to Happy Valley two weeks later. There's more than enough talent for them to make a push back towards the top of the division, particularly with what they have at the skill positions. However, they still appear a step below the true elites of the Big Ten, including Ohio State, who they haven't taken down since winning the league in 2016. PSU fans should still be satisfied getting back to 9-10 wins and some better injury luck but anything more would hinge on a magical improvement from Clifford, which seems unlikely at this point in his career.

Further Breakdown

Team Projections

Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten)

Offensive MVP: WR Jahan Dotson

Defensive MVP: S Jaquan Brisker

Breakout Player of the Year: TE Theo Johnson

Impact Freshman: CB Kalen King

Recruiting Breakdown

The 2021 Class wasn't James Franklin's best group at Penn State, but still ranked in the Top 25 nationally. The grand prize was Maryland product Landon Tengwall, a bruising offensive tackle that has the raw tools to be playing on Sundays for a long time. At 6'6", 300 pounds he looks ready to play right away, but is surprisingly light on his feet. Landing the King brothers was quite a get for the staff and both could theoretically play in 2021. Kalen King is higher rated, but Kobe is a hard hitter for a guy who is just a hair over 220 pounds. Another name to keep an eye on is Davon Townley, who the Nittany Lions snatched away from the state of Minnesota. He probably needs a year to bulk up in order to play defensive line in the Big Ten, but he's a tremendous athlete.

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2021: 17. Wisconsin Badgers

Graham Mertz, Wisconsin

 

17. Wisconsin Badgers

Whether or not the young offense improves, the stingy Badger defense will keep them in the Big Ten West hunt

2020 Review

Wisconsin opened up the 2020 Big Ten season with a pounding of Illinois that seemed to set the stage for another division title run. However, COVID problems caused them to miss the next several weeks and complicating their lofty plans. While the Badgers returned by dominating Michigan, the offense sputtered over the next three weeks, scoring just 20 points in total. An overtime win over Minnesota and a victory in the Duke's Mayo Bowl bumped them to 4-3 on the season and seemed to provide them the momentum they need heading into 2021. 

2021 Outlook

Offense: An injury to reigning starting QB Jack Coan forced Wisconsin to turn to redshirt freshman Graham Mertz at the quarterback spot. Mertz kicked off 2020 with a five-touchdown showing against a bad Illinois defense, but his numbers the rest of the way were uninspiring. He went for four touchdowns compared to five interceptions and a 57% completion percentage over the final six games of the season.

Mertz has natural arm talent that Wisconsin has lacked at the position since Russell Wilson was in Madison, but his decision-making last fall was very suspect. Towards the end of the year, he looked to be pressing to make things happen for this offense, leading to the increase in interceptions. A full off-season as the unquestioned starter should help, as will the improved health of his receiver corps.

Tailback Jalen Berger came on strong down the stretch in 2020 and looks to have the makings of the next great Badger back. He totaled 301 yards in four games last season but fully healthy and running behind an elite offensive line, expect him to eclipse 1,000 in 2021. The big question at the position is the lack of depth that Wisconsin usually possesses. Garrett Groshek graduated, and Nakia Watson opted to transfer to Washington State. Expect the Badgers to turn to either Isaac Guerendo or Clemson transfer Chez Mellusi as change of pace options.

To be fair to Mertz, he was operating with an extremely depleted receiver group all season. Not only had star wide out Quintez Cephus gone pro, but the Badgers were also without veterans Danny Davis III and Kendric Pryor for most of the season. Both Pryor and Davis are back to 100 percent heading into 2021, giving Mertz two solid, reliable weapons. Sophomore Chimere Dike and fifth-year senior Jack Dunn really emerged in 2020 and will also be featured. Dike has the upside to be a truly great Wisconsin receiver, showcasing a natural feel for the game and versatility that should excite fans. 

Tight end Jake Ferguson was a massive returnee for this offense. He led the team in nearly every receiving category last fall and easily could have gone pro, but instead decided to stay one more year. He is not only one of the best at his position in the Big Ten, but the entire country.

By normal Wisconsin standards, the offensive line play was somewhat disappointing. It was still a solid group, but paled in comparison to some of the elite units they've put out over the years. With three starters back and plenty of depth, improved play is likely. Three seniors, Kayden Lyles, Logan Bruss, and Tyler Beach, are all big returnees. But, the name to watch is sophomore Logan Brown, a former five-star recruit who is likely to start at left tackle.

The disappointing end to 2020 from the offense forced head coach Paul Chryst to make some changes. While offensive coordinator Joe Rudolph was retained, Chryst will take over play-calling duties. With a healthier receiver group and offensive line, the offense should be better no matter what, but the X-factor is Mertz. He doesn't need to be a superstar for this unit to be effective, but absolutely has to cut down on turnovers.

Defense: The most important piece returning to this Wisconsin defense is their coordinator, Jim Leonhard. The Wisconsin alum flirted with the Green Bay Packers DC job this off-season before instead deciding to stay in Madison. With most of his defense returning, expect Leonhard to once again lad a group that could finish in the Top 10 nationally.

The defensive line rarely has many big names, but it's a group that still finds ways to get the job done. With Isaiahh Loudermilk and Garrett Rand both departing from the group, junior tackle Keeanu Benton takes over as the most recognizable piece, although longtime backup Matt Henningsen should play plenty of snaps. The other defensive end spot likely to be opposite of Henningsen will be a fun position battle to watch. Junior Isaiah Mullens is a favorite to start, but redshirt frosh James Thompson Jr. and Oregon transfer Isaac Townsend will feature in.

Per usual Badger standards, the linebacker group is loaded. With four proven veterans returning, including several All-Big Ten-level players, this group might be one of the best in the nation. The headliner is senior Jack Sanborn, who led the team in tackles last fall, with 52. He is joined on the inside by junior Leo Chenal, a hard-nosed defender who is the top returning leader in sacks. Both of these guys can get after opposing quarterbacks in a way that past Wisconsin inside linebackers simply could not.

At outside linebacker, the Badgers feature senior Noah Burks and sophomore Nick Herbig. Herbig, who came all the way from Hawaii, came on strong in 2020 and has the chance to be special. He totaled 26 tackles last season and also displayed the ability to create chaos in the backfield, with six tackles for loss. Don't be surprised if he develops into a household name this year, even with all the other pieces back at this position.

Wisconsin's pass defense was not bad by any means in 2020 but struggled to create turnovers. With both corners returning, as well as senior free safety Scott Nelson, creating more opportunities for the offense should be the top goal. Corners Faion Hicks and Caesar Williams have proven to be solid, underrated pieces to this Badger defense. Hicks has proven he can still disrupt passing lanes, leading the team with four pass deflections a year ago. Nelson, who missed nearly all of 2019 with injury, came back and displayed his playmaking ability, with a pair of interceptions.

The Badgers continue to be one of the best in the nation at bringing in relatively unheralded recruits and developing them into key pieces on a stout defense. They're absolutely loaded at linebacker and have enough back in the secondary for that to be a strength as well. The pass rush may need some time to get going, but it doesn't need to be elite for this group to get the job done.

Special Teams: The Badger kicking game has been very streaky over the last several seasons. Senior Collin Larsh went 5-7 on field goal attempts last year, but struggled to find his range on long attempts. He is joined by punter Andy Vujnoich, a former Division III transfer who had a strong 2020. 

Bottom Line: COVID issues and injuries throughout the offense led to an understandable slide back to .500 football for Wisconsin in 2020, but the prognostication for '21 looks good. The defense should be once again one of the best in the Big Ten and possibly the entire country. On offense, the receiver corps should be much improved and Berger appears ready to become a true star out of the backfield. Again, the play of Mertz will be a major determining factor on whether this team is able to challenge for a Big Ten Title, but one would assume that more help around him will be huge. While the Badgers will be tested early on with a September slate that includes Penn State and a trip to Soldier Field to play Notre Dame, the schedule is overall favorable. They have possibly the easiest road slate in the league, forced to travel to Illinois, Rutgers, Purdue, and Minnesota. They might just be a step behind Iowa in the division, but don't be shocked if this Wisconsin team once again finds a way to take the West.

Further Breakdown

Team Projections

Projected Record: 9-3 (7-2 Big Ten)

Offensive MVP: TE Jake Ferguson

Defensive MVP: LB Jack Sanborn

Breakout Player of the Year: RB Jalen Berger

Impact Freshman: DE T.J. Bollers

Recruiting Breakdown

Wisconsin's 2021 Class will go down as one of the best in school history. Much of that can be credited to the arrival of five-star tackle Nolan Rucci, whose brother, Hayden, is a tight end on the team. Rucci is a future NFL Draft selection who the Badgers managed to snatch away from the top program in his native state, Penn State. Unsurprisingly, Wisconsin also reeled in several other highly touted linemen, including J.P. Benzschawel from inside the state and Riley Mahlman from Minnesota. Defensively, four-star T.J. Bollers could see immediate playing time at a position of need at defensive end, while outside linebacker Jake Ratzlaff has a bright future. Ratzlaff could've gone to college as a hockey player, but the Badgers convinced him to flip to football and come to Madison.

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2021: 18. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

 

Levi Lewis, Louisiana

18. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

With Napier back on the sideline and a veteran-laden roster, don't be surprised if the Ragin' Cajuns are an NY6 dark horse

2020 Review

Much like Sun Belt foes Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina, Louisiana went on the road and beat a Big 12 team. However, unlike Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina, they didn't beat up on a mediocre-to-terrible Kansas State or Kansas team but instead dominated possibly the best Iowa State team in program history. The early success helped carry Louisiana the rest of the way, as they went 10-1 and capped off their season by beating UTSA in the First Responder Bowl. Their lone loss came in heart-wrenching fashion to Coastal Carolina and their chance at vengeance was lost, with the Sun Belt Championship Game cancelled due to COVID issues. A second straight 10-win campaign for head coach Billy Napier naturally resulted in several big-name suitors, including South Carolina and Auburn, but the fourth-year head man instead opted to stay in Lafayette. 

2021 Outlook

Offense: Louisiana put up strong numbers across the board in 2020, ranking in the top-half of the Sun Belt in scoring offense and total offense. The core of that group returns for 2021, although the Cajuns will have to find a new feature back to emerge and lead the way on the ground.

Quarterback Levi Lewis is back for a fifth year, ensuring the Cajuns will have one of the top quarterbacks in the league. Lewis has already established himself as one of the best passers in program history, and is 24-4 as starting QB in two-plus seasons at the helm. Expect him to push longtime NFL veteran and Louisiana great Jake Delhomme to become the all-time leading passer in both yardage and touchdowns.

There's no chance Lewis would be pushed as starting quarterback unless injury or some other catastrophic issue occurs, but the staff did upgrade the QB room quite a bit this off-season. Former high four-star recruit Lance LeGendre returns to his native Louisiana after beginning his career at Maryland. He's the QB of the future in Lafayette and the type of prospect this school doesn't bring in often.

The potent 1-2 punch of Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell helped fuel the Louisiana offense the last few seasons, but both now depart. Mitchell is an especially tough loss as he was a big play threat on the ground (6.2 yards per carry) as well as a decent pass-catcher out of the backfield. Expect sophomore Chris Smith to get first crack at being the new No. 1 tailback. Although he was buried at No. 3 on the depth chart in 2020, he still managed 350 yards and also showed he could be an asset in the passing game. Beyond him the Cajuns are very unproven but have some interesting pieces, including former Texas A&M transfer Jacob Kibodi and freshman Emani Bailey. Bailey got ten carries a season ago but used the "free" year of eligibility due to COVID.

With basically every single receiver and tight end back, Louisiana boasts the best group in the conference. Expect the competition for snaps to be intense over the rest of the off-season and into fall camp. The trio of Jalen Williams, Peter LeBlanc and Kyren Lacy are likely to see the most targets, at least to begin the year. Williams is the veteran of the group, while LeBlanc and Lacy came on strong in 2020 and have the potential to get even better this fall. Freshman Errol Rogers Jr. should also see plenty of opportunities, another guy that played last fall but essentially used it as a free year of eligibility. At tight end, junior Johnny Lumpkin won't see a ton of targets but is reliable when he does. He's also an excellent blocker who should help spring holes for Lewis, Smith, and the rest of the ground attack.

This may be the best offensive line anywhere in Group of Five football. All five starters are back and offer proven veteran experience, with over 100 snaps between them. Not only is there experience, but there's potential NFL futures for several of these linemen, namely tackles Carlos Rubio and Max Mitchell. This staff further strengthened the unit by adding several transfers over the off-season, including Nebraska transplant Matthew Anderson.

With a veteran quarterback, plenty of proven weapons at wide out, and an extremely experienced offensive line, there's no reason this shouldn't be an elite Louisiana offense. It should be a Top 25 unit across the board, particularly if they're once again able to stay healthy throughout.

Defense: Defensive coordinator Patrick Toney didn't have an easy first season running the defense, as he was forced to take over in the midst of a global pandemic. Toney, who had previously been the team's safeties coach, still ended up doing a fine job as the Cajuns were 31st nationally in scoring defense and developed one of the country's best pass defenses.

The key for Toney and this defense will be getting more consistent play from their front seven. Although the group proved to be skilled at getting after opposing quarterbacks, the rush defense struggled at times in 2020. The good news is that both defensive tackles are back, including All-Sun Belt selection Zi'Yon Hill. At 283 pounds, Hill is light on his feet and plays more like a defensive end than tackle. Luckily, Louisiana has a prototypical nose tackle next to him in Tayland Humphrey, a 330-pound run stuffer. Next to those two is junior end Andre Jones, who had 43 tackles last season.

The linebacker corps may lose a solid defender in Joe, but every other key piece returns in this 3-3-5 look. Middle linebacker Lorenzo McCaskill led the team in tackles a season ago with 83, and he will return as the "quarterback" of this defense. Joining him is Ferrod Gardner, who finished just behind him in tackles, totaling 74. Gardner offers serious pass rushing upside and is one of the top playmakers on the entire defense. The outside linebacker spot opposite of Gardner should see an interesting position battle heading into the fall. Keep an eye on senior Chauncey Manac, who began his career all the way back in 2016 with Georgia before a quick pit stop at Garden City CC in Kansas. He flashed serious potential in a rotational role in 2020, but should be a favorite to start in '21.

It will be difficult for the Cajuns to replicate their pass defense numbers again in 2021, but not impossible. There is a bunch of experience returning here as well, including both cornerbacks and rising star Bralen Trahan at free safety. Trahan not only proved to be an effective last line of defense, racking up 48 tackles, but he picked off four passes and had nine pass deflections. The starting cornerbacks should be junior Eric Garror and sophomore Mekhi Garner, who should benefit with even more experience under their belt. Both are turnover-hungry themselves, as they finished just behind Trahan with three picks each. At nickelback, expect sophomore Kam Pedescleaux and Ja'len Johnson to split time. Pedescleaux had a huge game in the opener against Iowa State and finished the campaign with six tackles for loss.

This ball-hawking defense led the Sun Belt by picking off nearly five percent of the pass attempts against them in 2020 and ranked second in the league in turnover margin. That will be tough to do again in 2021 but they might not need the turnover help if the rush defense plays better. Either way, with so many key pieces back and more depth than past Cajun teams, it should be among the better in the Sun Belt.

Special Teams: Kenneth Almendares took over placekicker duties midseason in 2020 and played well, knocking down all five of his field goal attempts. He will once again be joined by punter Rhys Byrns, set to enter his junior season after averaging 43.5 yards per punt. The return game has a chance to be really entertaining; Chris Smith brought back two kick returns for scores in 2020, while Eric Garror brought back a punt return.

Bottom Line: After some down years in the mid-2010s near the end of the Mark Hudspeth era, Louisiana has once again risen to the top of the Sun Belt under Billy Napier. If not for Coastal Carolina's magical 2020 season, they would have easily been the story of the league and probably garnered even more New Year's Six Bowl consideration. As they prepare for 2021, they check just about every box you could possibly look for an a Group of Five contender. They have a proven winner on the sidelines, a tremendous QB, plenty of offensive weapons, and a deep and veteran-led defense. The Cajuns also have motivation, following the heartbreaking loss to Coastal last fall, and not getting another chance at them in the SBC Championship Game. Louisiana begins their season on the road against Texas, with a chance to once again pull off an upset against a Big 12 Title contender. Even if they lose, don't be surprised if they're favored in every game the rest of the way, with the lone exception possibly being the November 20th date with Liberty.

Further Breakdown

Team Projections

Projected Record: 12-1 (8-0 Sun Belt, Win Sun Belt Championship Game)

Offensive MVP: QB Levi Lewis

Defensive MVP: LB Lorenzo McCaskill

Breakout Player of the Year: LB Chauncey Manac

Impact Freshman: RB Montrell Johnson

Recruiting Breakdown

Even with all the rumors surrounding Napier and the possibility of him taking a Power Five gig, Louisiana managed to reel in a solid class, ranked among the best in the Group of Five. They brought in a pair of tailbacks that could realistically challenge for snaps right away as the program moves on from Eli Mitchell and Trey Ragas. Terrence Williams is ranked slightly higher than Montrell Johnson, but it's Johnson who comes in with more accolades, and was a former Arizona commit. Quarterback Zy McDonald, a three-star from Mississippi, won't likely see the field anytime soon but he has a frame and play style very similar to Levi Lewis. Defensive end Nijel McGriff could make an immediate impact as a Top 25 JUCO product who comes from Northwest Mississippi Community College.

Five-Year Trend