College Football Picks 2019: Week Seven

Current Picks Record: 32-16 (3-4 Upset)

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma

(#7) Florida Gators @ (#5) LSU Tigers
One week after a huge victory over Auburn at home, Florida must now go on the road and square off with a flaming hot LSU squad. It will be the toughest test of the 2019 season to this point for the Gators, particularly for their offense. While backup quarterback Kyle Trask has been impressive filling in as starter, he has not faced a defense with the speed and playmaking LSU has, particularly on the back-end. Trask will have to face down a secondary that includes Grant Delpit, Kristian Fulton and true freshman Derek Stingley, who has lived up to all the hype surrounding him when he came to Baton Rouge. The Gators have gotten quality production from their wide outs, particularly Van Jefferson and Freddie Swain, who has terrific against Auburn. They'll have to step up and open things up, but expect Dan Mullen to lean on the short-passing attack and the ground game early on. Lamical Perine has been very good, but UF is still going to have to work for every yard. The good news is that the Florida defense is playing at an insane rate right now and completely flummoxed Bo Nix last Saturday. Sure, Joe Burrow and this LSU offense is also rolling at the moment, currently leading FBS football with 54.6 points per game. Burrow has dissected opposing defenses with ease, and it helps that he has some real star power on the outside, including Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Terrace Marshall Jr. Watching this pass offense go up against the Florida secondary should be worth watching itself. C.J. Henderson and Marco Wilson are both fully healthy at cornerback, while junior Shawn Davis already has three interceptions on the season. This is a matchup that has been a physical, low-scoring affair in the past, but LSU's offensive revolution should really add some intrigue. It will be fascinating to watch how Mullen and UF defensive coordinator Todd Grantham try to contain this aerial offense. The Tigers will have to answer some questions themselves, chief among them: can the offensive line contain a potent Gator pass rush? Jonathan Greenard, Jabari Zuniga and Jeremiah Moon provide relentless pressure, and the LSU offensive front hasn't faced a challenge quite like it in 2019. With that being said, I find it difficult to pick Florida to go on the road and beat this Tiger team. It is their second Top 10 battle in as many weeks, and LSU just seems overpowering at this juncture. I expect them to add to their Playoff resume with a quality victory here.
The Pick: LSU, 35 Florida, 26

(#6) Oklahoma Sooners vs. (#11) Texas Longhorns
The Oklahoma-Texas rivalry has long defined the Big 12, and it once again appears to be the most important game of the conference once again in 2019. Oklahoma enters the matchup undefeated, although they haven't beat anyone of note at this point. Jalen Hurts has been nothing short of terrific, tallying nearly 2,000 yards of total offense and 21 touchdowns. It's hard to imagine him slowing down in this one; while the Texas secondary has loads of talent, it is still incredibly youthful and could have a tough time slowing down this Lincoln Riley offense. Not only will the Sooners feature Hurts, but they have loads of weapons surrounding the Alabama transfer. A three-headed monster at running back (Trey Sermon, Kennedy Brooks, Rhamondre Stevenson) should be able to run all over a beat-up Texas defensive front. On the outside, CeeDee Lamb, Charleston Rambo and true freshman Jadon Hasselwood will aid a unit averaging over 53 points per game. Longhorn DC Todd Orlando is going to have to do something unique to slow down this group, especially with how much Longhorns will be on the sideline for this game. The good news is that Texas should be able to keep up offensively, behind the arm of Sam Ehlinger. Ehlinger played superb in this Red River rivalry a year ago, and has already proven he can outplay outstanding defenses, throwing for over 400 yards against LSU earlier on in the year. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the weapons around him that Hurts has, with a beat-up running back situation and a good, but not great, receiver corps. Keontay Ingram could find some gaping holes against an up-and-down Oklahoma defense, and Devin Duvarney will be a factor on the outside. However, this Sooners' defense has looked much improved throughout the 2019 campaign. Granted, they haven't faced elite offenses, but it is still reassuring that they're allowing just 19 points per game on the year. They will have to find a way to slow down the dual threat abilities of Ehlinger, as he killed them at times in last year's duel. Either way, I fully expect this game to still be high-scoring and back-and-forth. Both of these offenses know how to move the ball, and this game features two of the better quarterbacks in collegiate football. This rivalry has also been very competitive, even during UT's recent downturn this past decade. I think this will be a thriller, but the Sooners have to be the smart money. They have a better offense and better health overall, which should be the deciding factor.
The Pick: Oklahoma, 44 Texas, 38

(#10) Penn State Nittany Lions @ (#17) Iowa Hawkeyes
Going into Kinnick Stadium at night is always going to signal an upset watch, and Penn State could certainly be in trouble this upcoming Saturday night. That isn't to say that the Nittany Lions aren't a very strong team, sitting at 5-0 with two dominant victories in their first two Big Ten games. After some early struggles, QB Sean Clifford has played very good football, showing an excellent command of the PSU offense. He is also helped by an offense that has a plethora of weapons, both at running back and at receiver. Journey Brown, Devyn Ford and Noah Cain can all open things up on the ground, and the depth at the position allows them to rotate often and stay fresh. They won't get anything easy against a physical and ferocious Iowa defensive front, but I still expect Penn State to find success on the ground. What will really help the ground attack is K.J. Hamler, who can give defenses real headaches with his game-breaking speed. He's the type of player that could break a game wide open, especially if things stay close deep into the fourth quarter, which I firmly expect them to. While the offense is humming, it seems that the even bigger strength so far for the Nittany Lions has been an aggressive, talented defense. The PSU pass rush has been especially productive, thanks to Yetur Gross-Matos (five sacks), Shaka Toney (five sacks) and Ellis Brooks (three). It could have a real field day in this game, going up against a Hawkeye offensive line that surrendered eight sacks this past weekend to Michigan. That is the biggest mismatch of the game, but the rest of the Penn State defense is going to have to show up. While Iowa QB Nate Stanley isn't a superstar, he has played a lot of Big Ten football, and I think he'll find a way to get this offense going. The Hawkeyes also feature a strong rushing attack, that includes Mekhi Sargent and Toren Young. While PSU can get after the opposing quarterback, I'm not sure if they can completely contain the run. Talent-wise, I do believe that Penn State has an advantage in that department. Yet, you have to factor in the Kinnick factor whenever assessing an Iowa night game. The Hawkeyes came within a hair of beating PSU in 2017, which was a better Nittany Lion team (hello, Saquon Barkley!). I think this could end up being a low-scoring, sloppy duel between long-time Big Ten foes. I think Iowa does just enough on offense to pull off another upset in front of their home crowd.
The Pick: Iowa, 24 Penn State, 21

Other Picks
(#1) Alabama @ (24) Texas A&M: Alabama, 42 Texas A&M, 21
USC @ (#9) Notre Dame: Notre Dame, 31 USC, 27
Hawai'i @ (#14) Boise State: Boise State, 37 Hawai'i, 31
Michigan State @ (#8) Wisconsin: Wisconsin, 23 Michigan State, 14
Upset: Temple, 28 Memphis, 27

Post-Week Six College Football Playoff Power Rankings

Justin Fields, Ohio State

We are now over a month in the 2019 college football season and while plenty still needs to be figured out, the CFB Playoff picture seems to be becoming more clear. Things could continue to shift with a stacked slate of games, but through the first six weeks, here is how the Top 8 stands:

The Four
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
Even though the Tide don't own a real signature win at this juncture in the season, this still looks like a convincing national favorite. They have perhaps the scariest offense in the country, a budding defense, and the best coach in the sport. The defense will have to answer some questions after recent struggles, but there is still time to correct. A win over Texas A&M would serve as a nice resume boost before a breezy remaining October stretch.

2 Ohio State Buckeyes
A resounding victory over Michigan State this Saturday was the latest in a long stretch of impressive Buckeye victories. The offense continues to hum along behind Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins, while the defense has taken major strides. While Ohio State looks like the favorite in the Big Ten, they have three major remaining tests in Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan. There is also the history of losing to inferior opponents over the last few years, with trap games against Northwestern and Maryland.

3 Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia owns one of the strongest wins in college football right now, beating Notre Dame at home. A blowout victory of Tennessee over the weekend further helped out the Bulldogs, and UGA possesses a favorable remaining schedule. Beyond a road trek to Auburn, games against Florida and Texas A&M seem manageable. With that being said, life as an SEC favorite is no breeze, and the Georgia defense is still incredibly youthful.

4. Clemson Tigers
A squeaky close win over North Carolina in Week 5 might have kept Clemson perfect, but it exposed some serious flaws the reigning National Champs. The offense is loaded with talent, but is still trying to find their rhythm. Trevor Lawrence especially has struggled at times, but we will give this team some time before panicking. They are still a Playoff favorite, and their tough remaining foe is probably Wake Forest in mid-November.

First Four Out
5 LSU Tigers
The Tigers own a very impressive victory themselves, beating a very strong Texas team on the road. The new look offense has been a smashing success, with Joe Burrow asserting himself as a legitimate Heisman contender. It will be interesting to see if that productivity is able to continue through remaining tests against Florida, Auburn and Alabama. This still looks like a good enough team to be a Playoff contender, but handling that schedule is a tall order. LSU will remain right on the cusp until they work through it.

6 Florida Gators
Dan Mullen's second team in Gainesville looks incredibly resilient, overcoming the loss of starting QB Feleipe Franks and continuing to win. They sit at 6-0 and have two of their toughest opponents over the next three games, in LSU and Georgia. The offense is going to have to be creative moving the ball against some of these elite SEC defenses, particularly with Kyle Trask taking a beating this past weekend. Yet, the Gator defense is ferocious, and keeps them in the thick of things in the Playoff chase.

7 Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners are another team who is rolling right now, with five wins where they all crossed the 40-point threshold. Jalen Hurts has been a key addition for the offense, while wide out CeeDee Lamb and running back Trey Sermon add plenty of firepower around him. The defense has also seemed to make some strides, although they haven't faced super quality competition. We'll learn about just how truly good this OU team is this weekend when they square off against arch-rival Texas. A strong showing there and they could start to climb quickly.

8 Wisconsin Badgers
The best defense in the nation currently resides in Madison, where the Badgers are holding opponents to just 5.8 PPG and 179 yards per game. They also own a quality victory, with a fantastic showing against Michigan earlier in the year. They're set up pretty nicely as a Playoff threat, with a trip to Columbus possibly deciding the season. One thing is for certain: Wisconsin surely looks like the team to beat in the Big Ten West until further notice.

Just Missed the Cut
Oregon Ducks
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Auburn Tigers
Texas Longhorns
Penn State Nittany Lions
Michigan Wolverines
Boise State Broncos
Iowa Hawkeyes

College Football Picks 2019: Week Six

Current Picks Record: 26-14 (2-4 Upset)
(#7) Auburn Tigers @ (#10) Florida Gators

Bo Nix, Auburn

The first real SEC battle of the 2019 season kicks off this Saturday between the flaming hot Auburn Tigers and Florida, who has managed to survive without starting quarterback Feleipe Franks. Auburn has been particularly surprising, sitting at 5-0 overall despite a tough non-conference opener with Oregon and a road trip to Texas A&M. The Tigers have done most of it with a suffocating defense, headlined by a loaded front seven. Yet, this past weekend, the offense showed just how potent it can be, dropping 56 on a solid Mississippi State defense. True freshman signal-caller Bo Nix seems to only be getting better, although turnovers still pose a problem. He faces a talented Gator defense, with star power at every level. Even going into a hostile environment like the Swamp, I don't see Nix being overwhelmed with the atmosphere. He looked calm and poised a few weekends ago in College Station, and even before that in the opener. The Tigers feature a number of other explosive weapons around Nix, namely steady tailback "Boobie" Whitlow and speed demon Anthony Schwartz. Schwartz, who was banged up to begin the year, has to strike an especially deep fear in this Florida defense. He has had rushing touchdowns in consecutive weeks, using his track speed to fly around on jet sweeps. Gus Malzahn's creativity and unique offense really fits the personnel on this roster, but he will need his offensive line to play well. Florida has proven they can pound offenses with a relentless pass rush, and the Auburn O-Line certainly hasn't been perfect so far in '19. For the Gators, they'll lean not only on that physical defense, but a methodical, efficient offense. Since taking over as starting QB for the injured Franks, Kyle Trask is completing 77% of his passes and seems to have a real command of this offense. He doesn't necessarily wow you with his physical attributes, but Trask does a good job getting the ball out quickly and making the right decisions. Florida will still need somebody to step up on the outside and really open things up. While the Tiger defensive front is terrific, the secondary still has some lingering question marks that could be exploited. Missing Kadarius Toney has really hurt the Gators in that regard, but Van Jefferson and Trevon Grimes have both proven they can do damage. They won't have to dominate, but giving Trask much needed help is an absolute necessity. Even if UF is able to get production on the outside and find some holes in the Tiger defense, I still wonder if they're able to keep up with Auburn for sixty minutes. This is a scary Tiger team, and a victory on the road here should assert them as a very real Playoff contender. Going into Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is obviously never easy, but I like the Tigers to keep it rolling here.
The Pick: Auburn, 35 Florida, 27

(#14) Iowa Hawkeyes @ (#19) Michigan Wolverines
Outside of a close win against Iowa State in the Cy-Hawk this past month, we still aren't really sure how good Iowa really is, as they sit at 14th nationally. It looks like the typical Hawkeye team, one with a rock-solid quarterback, a punishing offensive line, and a stout defense. Nate Stanley has been exactly what Kirk Ferentz looks for at QB (8 TD, 0 INT), but the real strength of the Iowa offense so far on the year has been a three-pronged backfield attack. Mekhi Sargent, Toren Young and Tyler Goodson all have eclipsed 200 yards on the campaign, with Young serving as the big-play option, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. On the perimeter, Iowa might miss Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson at tight end, but they've still done enough to have confidence they can move the ball in a variety of ways. With that being said, the Hawkeyes now stare down a Michigan defense that has loads of talent, and seems to be playing hungry. This Wolverines' defense has been much maligned for its play in a win over Army and a bad loss to Wisconsin, and for good reason. They haven't stopped the run as well as in year's past, and the pass rush really hasn't looked like Don Brown defenses normally look like. However, this is the type of offense Michigan generally plays well against, and they now have momentum after shutting out Rutgers last Saturday. They'll look to force Stanley to make a few rare mistakes, and commit his first turnover of the new year. For all the questions Michigan has on defense, the offense has been even more maligned. New offensive coordinator Josh Gattis promised a more open, up-tempo offense that better utilizes UM's speed on the outside. Yet, this group hasn't really delivered on that promise, and veteran QB Shea Patterson has really struggled. The good news is that Patterson appears to finally be 100 percent, and is coming off a strong showing a week ago. Granted, this Iowa defense is a little bit more of a challenge than the Rutgers group, but Patterson does have a couple of rising stars at receiver in Ronnie Bell and Nico Collins. The hope is that the ground attack can also rejuvenate this week, whether its Christian Turner or Zach Charbonnet (probable) leading the charge. Michigan is also going to need the O-Line to handle a vaunted Iowa pass rush, but playing in front of the home crowd should be able to give the whole offense a boost. A preseason Playoff pick of mine, Michigan has definitely disappointed through the first month of the season. Yet, I still think this is a team that should be able to figure things out going forward, and I think they find a way to come out on top here. Home field is obviously a major advantage, and I envision the defense having a redemptive afternoon.
The Pick: Michigan, 28 Iowa, 20

(#25) Michigan State Spartans @ (#4) Ohio State Buckeyes
Following their 41-point dismantling of Nebraska last weekend, it has become clear that Ohio State is the team to beat in the Big Ten. They're hopeful to continue their momentum at home this Saturday against a tough Michigan State team. After managing just one touchdown in a loss to Arizona State in early September, the MSU offense has looked significantly better, with 71 points over their next two. Quarterback Brian Lewerke has been rock-solid, coming off a 300-yard showing in the victory over Indiana. He is aided by a number of under-the-radar playmakers, namely wide out Darrell Stewart and talented youngster Elijah Collins. Will it be enough to score against the Buckeyes? The Spartan offensive line is going to have to find a way to slow down Chase Young, Jeffrey Okudah and the rest of a talented Ohio State defense. Young in particular has to have the Michigan State offense worried, as the possible top pick in next spring's NFL Draft already has eight sacks on the season despite facing constant double teams. The good news is that the Spartans feature a dominant defense themselves, including one of the nation's premier rush defenses. Even though they allowed 31 this past week, they still are allowing just 15.0 points per game, which sits 14th nationally. They have to find a way to slow down a Buckeye offense that can hurt you in a variety of ways. Quarterback Justin Fields has been absolutely terrific, already notching 23 total touchdowns on the year with zero interceptions. The former Georgia transfer has already proven himself as one of the country's most effective dual threats, and he really makes the rest of this offense go. Running back J.K. Dobbins has had a huge season with defenses focusing on Fields, and he should be ready to do damage, even against a physical Spartan defensive front. Dobbins has scored in every single game of the season, with the only exception being against Nebraska, when he ran for 177. On the perimeter, a trio of receivers will test an experienced MSU secondary. Senior K.J. Hill and Chris Olave have to be top priorities for the Spartans, as they've already combined for eight touchdowns on the season. Scoring points against this Michigan State group should still pose a stiff challenge, but with the way this offense is rolling under new head coach Ryan Day, the Buckeyes shouldn't have too much difficulties. Unless the Spartans are able to figure things out against a speedy, talented defense themselves, OSU keeps on humming.
The Pick: Ohio State, 34 Michigan State, 14

Other Picks
California @ (#13) Oregon: Oregon, 27 California, 16
(#3) Georgia @ Tennessee: Georgia, 41 Tennessee, 20
(#15) Washington @ Stanford: Washington, 30 Stanford, 20
Purdue @ (#12) Penn State: Penn State, 37 Purdue, 21
Upset: Texas Tech, 45 Oklahoma State, 42

College Football Picks 2019: Week Five

Current Picks Record: 19-13 (1-4 Upset)
(#18) Virginia Cavaliers @ (#10) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Ian Book, Notre Dame

While Notre Dame was unable to overcome Georgia this past Saturday, their Playoff hopes could still be alive if they are able to run the table the rest of the way. Of course, that would begin by beating a quality Virginia squad in South Bend this weekend. The Cavaliers haven't blown out opponents en route to a 4-0 start but they have won behind dual threat QB Bryce Perkins and a stingy defense. Perkins is a real pain for any defense, as a guy with a strong arm and the mobility to extend plays and make things happen. While the Irish have faced good opposing quarterbacks on the season, they haven't faced one with the playmaking ability of Perkins. It should be an interesting challenge for defensive coordinator Clark Lea and company, although this front seven has looked terrific so far in 2019. Perkins will probably have to have a huge game for this Cavaliers team because the rest of the offense is a little bit underwhelming. They've really missed graduated wide out Olamide Zaccheaus on the outside, a guy who could do a little bit of everything. On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame has a proven vet at QB in Ian Book, and they proved they could move the ball against an elite defense this past Saturday. Book will have to play well, as he has through the first month of the season to this point. The Irish rushing attack has lagged behind without much help beyond Tony Jones Jr., and they face a Virginia defense that is especially strong at linebacker. That UVA linebacker corps includes Zane Zandier, Jordan Mack and Charles Snowden, a trio that can play sideline to sideline and also rush the passer if needed. However, the Cavalier secondary is a little bit questionable, which was also made worse when corner Darius Bratton was lost for the year due to a torn ACL earlier in the campaign. Can the Cavaliers find a way to contain ND's top receiver Chase Claypool? Who matches up against tight end Cole Kmet, who had nine catches for 108 yards in the Georgia game? It seems as though Notre Dame also has a slight advantage on the sideline. While Bronco Mendenhall has done a superb job with Virginia and is a proven program builder, he hasn't played in many big games, particularly against a program like ND. Going into a hostile environment like South Bend and coming out victorious is going to be difficult to manage for Mendenhall and the entire coaching staff. With that being said, I still think UVA has a strong enough defense to keep things close deep into the fourth. Yet, Book and the rest of this Irish lineup just has too much talent, and should find a way to pull away.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 34 Virginia, 24

(#5) Ohio State Buckeyes @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
Even though this game doesn't quite have the allure it looked like it might in the preseason, Nebraska could still pose a stiff challenge to the fifth-ranked Buckeyes. Sure, Ohio State is playing nearly unstoppable football, but this is their first real challenge of the 2019 season. The Buckeye defense is in store for a real test, as they must find a way to contain Adrian Martinez and the rest of this explosive 'Husker offense. To this point, this OSU defense has looked much improved, applying constant pressure to opposing quarterbacks and not allowing the big plays they too often did in 2018. Yet, Martinez and his huge arm are quite the challenge through the air, and he can do some real damage with his legs. Defensive end Chase Young and the rest of the D-Line might be able to keep him relatively contained, but this Buckeye secondary is going to have to come ready to play. Ohio State has to be especially concerned about playmaker J.D. Spielman, who has 383 yards receiving, averaging 21.3 yards per catch. Spielman is a real demon in open space, so the Buckeyes are going to have to keep him inside and make some tough tackles. Defending the run most also be a top priority, as the Cornhuskers bring out a dangerous trio in their backfield with Maurice Washington, Dedrick Mills and Martinez. If the defense struggles, Ohio State could find themselves in a shootout, which puts even more pressure on the offense. The good news is that this offense has looked nearly unstoppable, posting averages of 53.5 points and 525 yards per game. Justin Fields has looked like the former five-star recruit when he first arrived at Georgia. His arm strength and legs make him a factor to make big plays every snap, and his explosiveness has really opened up the rest of this offense. J.K. Dobbins is averaging seven yards per carry as the feature back and faces a Nebraska rush defense that has struggled mightily the last few seasons. Unless linebacker Mohamed Barry has a huge game as the real star of this defense, Nebraska could really be in store for a tough one. This is also a team prone to allowing big plays through the air, and this Buckeyes' offense should be very aggressive. Those questions on defense, paired with the turnover problems the offense has suffered, could make for a tough day in Lincoln. With the way that Ohio State has been playing, it looks like they should keep on rolling this Saturday.
The Pick: Ohio State, 41 Nebraska, 28

(#21) USC Trojans @ (#17) Washington Huskies
Even though USC improved to 3-1 on the season with their victory last weekend, head coach Clay Helton still enters a road meeting with Washington possibly coaching his final game with the Trojans. To make things tougher, the Trojans will likely have to make-do with their third-string quarterback, as starter J.T. Daniels remains out for the year, while backup Kedon Slovis is questionable going through the concussion protocol. Matt Fink did do a great job running the offense last weekend, but this Washington defense is legit, and he will get nothing easy against a ball-hawking Husky secondary. The Trojans will certainly need other pieces to step up, namely back Vavae Malepaei or any one of these talented receivers. Michael Pittman, Tyler Vaughns and Amon-Ra St. Brown have given defenses fits this season under the new Graham Harrell offense, but they get their toughest test against UW. The 'SC defense also has something to prove, as they've been up-and-down all season long. They have talent all across the board, but they've struggled to tackle and play disciplined football. Washington struggled with consistency offensively early on, but they looked superb this past weekend and seem to only be getting better. Former Georgia transfer Jacob Eason still is prone to mistakes, but his arm talent really is something special. He has made some throws already this season that departed Jake Browning simply couldn't make. He will test a youthful Trojan secondary that could have real troubles containing all the weapons the Huskies can throw at you. Washington is also hopeful their rushing attack can get things going after some early struggles. Salvon Ahmed has proven he can do real damage when healthy, but he is doubtful for this one. If he can't go, UW will turn to junior Sean McGrew, who rushed for 110 yards against BYU on Saturday. Fink may be able to give 'SC a fighting chance, but it's hard to imagine him replicating what he just did a weekend ago. Along with the questions they have on defense, I don't see USC overcoming the Huskies in Seattle here.
The Pick: Washington, 30 USC, 21

Other Picks
Northwestern @ (#8) Wisconsin: Wisconsin, 24 Northwestern, 12
Texas Tech @ (#6) Oklahoma: Oklahoma, 52 Texas Tech, 34
Ole Miss @ (#2) Alabama: Alabama, 49 Ole Miss, 17
Iowa State @ Baylor: Iowa State, 38 Baylor, 34
Upset: Oklahoma State, 42 Kansas State, 31

2019 College Football Reaction & Analysis: Week Four

Jim Harbaugh

After a relatively quiet Week 3 of college football action, the fourth week of the 2019 college football season was full of important matchups. Michigan-Wisconsin, Auburn-Texas A&M and Notre Dame-Georgia were all critical games that are sure to have a major impact on the Playoff chase this fall. Now that all the dust has settled, we have a much clearer indication of the true contenders this season, and who could be the final four teams playing for it all this winter.

Is it Over for Harbaugh in Ann Arbor?: I have never been one to buy into the Jim Harbaugh hot seat hype, because I've long felt that has he done a great job returning UM to relevancy, and if not for a controversial call in 2016, the Wolverines would have gone to the Playoff in his second season. However, after watching Michigan get blown out in Madison this Saturday, it's hard to imagine the Wolverines sticking with Harbaugh for much longer. The Wolverines didn't even look competitive, and their new look offense managed just 299 yards, turning the ball over four times. Sure, there is still time for UM to recover and
evolve into a Big Ten East Title threat, but their remaining schedule includes five ranked teams. With the way they played this weekend, it's hard to imagine Michigan sniffing ten wins, or pulling off an upset of Ohio State, which could ultimately doom Harbaugh at his alma mater.

Notre Dame Earns Some Respect: Bad losses on the national stage have become all too common for Notre Dame in recent memory, and a road game against Georgia looked like it could be the latest primetime loss. However, ND competed with the Bulldogs for the entire sixty minutes, with a chance to pull out the win late. It may have ruined Notre Dame's quest for a second straight undefeated regular season, but it showed that this is a team that can compete with the big boys of college football. It is one thing to keep it close with UGA when you're playing in front of your home crowd, but going into Athens is a different animal altogether. With a fairly manageable schedule remaining, the Irish look like they can run the table and finish off 11-1. Depending on who else is sitting there at the end, that could be a Playoff team if things swing right.

UCF Remains the Group of Five Favorite... For Now: For the first time since 2016, UCF lost a regular season game, as they were unable to sneak past Pittsburgh in a 35-34 loss. It was an understandable loss for the Knights; they were bound to loss sometime, and they couldn't finish off a comeback attempt after falling behind 21 early on. Despite the loss, UCF is still playing well enough to believe they are still the Group of Five favorite, and the representative in the New Year's Six. They will have to hold off teams like Memphis, Boise State and Appalachian State, but this is another team with a favorable remaining schedule and an offense still gelling under the leadership of young QB Dillon Gabriel. Playing UConn next week at home, UCF could start somewhat of a "revenge tour" that could carry them through the final few months of the season.

The Pac-12 is Not Returning to the Playoff: With Oregon, Washington and Stanford all suffering losses early on in 2019, it looked like the conference's Playoff hopes rested on one of three teams: Washington State, California or Utah. Two of those teams lost over the weekend, with the Utes bowing out to USC and Washington State unable to finish off UCLA. This now means that the Pac-12's hopes now shift solely to an undefeated Cal, or perhaps Oregon, if they're able to run the table. That is a terrible place to be in, considering the Golden Bears are a flimsy conference favorite, and the Ducks still face Washington, Arizona State and USC away from home. This is a terrible spot for a conference that has only been to the Playoff twice since its inception.

Heisman Race: Now a month into the 2019 season, the Heisman race is finally starting to really heat up. A bunch of quarterbacks top the list at the moment, but a number of running backs should be able to keep things interesting.
1. Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma
2. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
3. Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
4. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
5. Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State

What I'm Watching Next Week

Arizona State-California (Friday, 9:30 PM CT, ESPN): Late-night Pac-12 battles are always fascinating, and this matchup between ASU-Cal is worth a watch. California is the Pac-12's last hope for a wild Playoff run, while Arizona State remains a Pac-12 South Title contender, even coming off a loss to Colorado on Saturday. Watching true freshman QB Jayden Daniels go up against this superb Cal defense is another reason to tune in.
Virginia-Notre Dame (2:30 PM CT, NBC): Any chances of Notre Dame returning to the Playoff again this season would start with an Irish win in South Bend. Notre Dame will have to find a way to contain dual threat quarterback Bryce Perkins, who is Virginia's leading passer & rusher. The Cavaliers remain a dark horse Playoff threat, as they will most likely be favored in every single game the rest of the year after this game.
USC-Washington (2:30 PM, FOX): While both Washington and USC have early-season losses, they still remain serious contenders to win their respective divisions. This seems like an especially important game for 'SC, particularly head coach Clay Helton. The Trojans still have Notre Dame, Oregon and Cal remaining on the schedule, so a loss here could doom Helton's tenure in Southern Cal.
Ohio State-Nebraska (6:30 PM, NBC): Even though Nebraska has struggled out of the gate this year, they still remain a difficult opponent to beat in Lincoln. Ohio State has to be particularly concerned with stopping Adrian Martinez, who has the skill set that has flummoxed Buckeye defenses in years past. College GameDay will be here for this one, which certainly raises the stakes between the cross-division foes.

College Football Picks 2019: Week Four

Current Picks Record: 15-9 (1-3 Upset)
(#7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ (#3) Georgia Bulldogs

Jake Fromm, Georgia

Two seasons ago, Georgia's 20-19 victory over Notre Dame in South Bend set the stage for an eventual National Championship appearance. Now, the Bulldogs will have to defend their own turf against the Fighting Irish, a formidable non-conference foe. Neither of these teams have played a very tough schedule to this point, as ND has rolled through Louisville & New Mexico, while Georgia has dominated Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. Those early-season victories have allowed both offenses to test out new things and get some much-needed momentum. This seemed especially important for an Irish offense that did have a veteran QB in Ian Book, but some questions at running back and on the O-Line. Book has looked like a seasoned pro to this point, but how will he fare against a UGA pass rush and secondary that could be the best he has seen all season? He'll have to make a number of tough throws in tight windows, and will also need somebody to step up on the perimeter. The Bulldogs can be challenged vertically, but the Irish have lacked a true home run threat in this offense for a number of seasons. The ND ground attack will also have to face a Bulldog front that is still relatively inexperienced, but loaded with talent. UGA currently sits fifth in the country in rush defense, allowing just 2.14 yards per rush and 67 yards per game. The Irish do have some playmakers in their backfield, but can the offensive line get enough push against an SEC defense? That could be one of the main deciding factors in this one. Georgia has looked explosive on offense, even with lingering questions in a youthful receiver corps. QB Jake Fromm has been terrific, while the rest of the Bulldogs' offensive weapons continue to attack defenses in a variety of ways. D'Andre Swift has been a stud, with Zamir White and Kenny McIntosh adding even more spark off the bench. On the perimeter, true freshmen George Pickens and Dominick Blaylock already look like future superstars, and they'll test a solid ND secondary. Georgia also seems to have a distinct advantage in the trenches, where they'll feature perhaps the nation's best offensive line. The Irish do have a strong defense top to bottom, but facing an SEC offense with this mix of speed and physicality is a tough order. Do the Irish have the athletes they need to keep up? Only hurting Notre Dame's chances to pull off the upset is the obvious fact they are playing in Athens. It is one thing to take down UGA on the road, but the Bulldogs haven't lost in their home since the 2017 season. I like Book and this defense enough to think that they won't be run out of the stadium, but the Irish just don't have enough to keep up over the course of sixty minutes.
The Pick: Georgia, 34 Notre Dame, 21

(#8) Auburn Tigers @ (#17) Texas A&M Aggies
Even though Texas A&M was manhandled recently by Clemson, this is still a team with SEC West Title aspirations. They will get their first conference test of the 2019 season with the Tigers, who believe they are a serious Playoff contender following their season-opening win over Oregon. Much of the attention on the Auburn offense has been reserved for QB Bo Nix, and he has played well for a true freshman taking over at a major program. Yet, the real guiding force to the offense over the season's first three weeks has been an old formula: their rushing attack. JaTarvious "Boobie" Whitlow, Kam Martin and Shaun Sivers give Gus Malzahn a trio of versatile, electrifying running backs to be creative with. Add in backup quarterback Joey Gatewood, a factor in short yardage and goal line situations, and this is a formidable offensive group. With that being said, A&M can still counter with a defense that only seems to be getting better. They're especially strong up front, where they are deep and athletic. Nix is going to have to make some throws too, and while he has showed tremendous poise for his age, his numbers aren't overwhelming. This is a defense that loves to create chaos and turnovers, and they'll be pouncing early and often. The question for the Aggies actually is on offense, quite a shift from past teams. While quarterback Kellen Mond is a proven veteran that has won a lot of games, he has been underwhelming early on. It will be interesting to see how he fares against the Auburn defense. While the Tigers boast one of the country's premier defensive lines, the secondary certainly has some question marks. If A&M does a reasonable job containing that rush, Mond could be ready to do some serious damage. They will still need to find a way to run the ball, which is going to be a difficult challenge. It was always going to be hard against this defense, but things got even more precarious when lead back Jashaun Corbin was ruled out for the remainder of the season due to a hamstring injury. True freshman Isaiah Spiller is now the guy, and he will be leaned on heavily. This may be a tough matchup top to bottom for the Aggies, but I actually like them to come out on top at home. Auburn may sit undefeated at the moment, but I think they were outplayed in the opener, and have a variety of things to sort out before I feel confident in what they can do. I think the Aggies and Mond do enough offensively to come out the victor in front of the home folks.
The Pick: Texas A&M, 38 Auburn, 27

(#11) Michigan Wolverines @ (#13) Wisconsin Badgers
Could we get a possible Big Ten Championship preview in late September? Both Michigan and Wisconsin have legitimate Playoff aspirations and enter this battle with flawless records. The Wolverines got all they could handle from Army at home two weeks ago, but managed to escape. While the Black Knights are a quality opponent, the real worry in the victory was an offense that struggled to move the ball or create explosive plays. Considering that all the talk over the off-season was how new OC Josh Gattis was going to revolutionize and modernize this offense, fans are very anxious about the current state of the unit. Even more concerning is the fact that this struggling offense now deals with Wisconsin, who has not allowed a single point early on this fall. QB Shea Patterson has been beat up, so some of his struggles are understandable. However, this guy entered 2019 as one of the Big Ten's top signal-callers, and he has to act like it. There are weapons all around him, and the coaching staff has given him more freedom. Can he make the big throws this Michigan team is going to need? Running back Zach Charbonnet has come on strong as a true freshman, and there is plenty of explosiveness ready to make things happen on the perimeter. The Badgers might be playing lights-out defensively at the moment, but this isn't a perfect group either. They still struggle to rush the passer at times, and just lost a key component to their secondary, as safety Scott Nelson was recently ruled out for the year. Wisconsin's offense has also been humming along, but they face their stiffest challenge of the season with the Wolverines. QB Jack Coan has looked good, but how does he handle the press-man coverage Michigan loves to play? It is a unique challenge, and he'll need plenty of help from this group of wide outs. Sure, it helps having a running back like Jonathan Taylor to take the load off. Taylor has picked up right where he started from 2018, as one of the sport's most dynamic playmakers. He has even shown improvements in a few areas, most notably as a pass-catcher. Containing him is an obvious top priority for this UM defense, and they've done a good job in year's past of bottling up elite running backs. An interesting matchup to watch in this one is certainly the Wisconsin offensive line versus the Michigan pass rush. Don Brown loves to blitz, and while the Badgers' line has looked good early on, most of these blockers haven't faced this type of defensive scheme. If Coan isn't able to stay on his feet, it's hard to imagine the Badgers having much prolonged success moving the ball. With the way that Wisconsin has been playing, and the fact it is in Madison, the Badgers have opened up as slight favorites. However, I'm going with Michigan to pull off a big win, even with some of the offensive question marks. I trust in this defense a lot, and think Patterson should be ready for a bounceback Saturday.
The Pick: Michigan, 28 Wisconsin, 26

Other Picks
(#15) UCF @ Pittsburgh: UCF, 45 Pittsburgh, 24
Tennessee @ (#9) Florida: Florida, 28 Tennessee, 17
(#4) LSU @ Vanderbilt: LSU, 37 Vanderbilt, 20
Oklahoma State @ (#12) Texas: Texas, 42 Oklahoma State, 38
Upset: BYU, 31 Washington, 27

College Football Picks 2019: Week Three

Nate Stanley, Iowa

Current Picks Record: 11-5 (1-2 Upset)
(#19) Iowa Hawkeyes @ Iowa State Cyclones
College GameDay makes its first trip to Ames in school history, as the 2019 Cy-Hawk Rivalry takes center stage in Week Three. Both teams entered the season with significant expectations and even though neither has played a very daunting schedule, the excitement surrounding this game is palpable. Iowa State began the year with a tough FCS foe in Northern Iowa, who played them right down to the wire in an OT victory for the Cyclones. QB Brock Purdy looked terrific in his first start of the new campaign, with 278 yards and two touchdowns. Along with budding wide out Deshaunte Jones and former Arkansas transfer La'Michael Pettway, this aerial attack could be dangerous, particularly going against an Iowa secondary with some lingering question marks. With that being said, ISU is going to need more production from their ground game, which really struggled to get things going in the opener and certainly misses departed David Montgomery. On defense, the Hawkeyes may have some questions in the back-end, but their front seven appears to be among the Big Ten's best. If the Cyclones can't block A.J. Epenesa, one of the premier pass rushers in all of the land, they could be in store for a long afternoon. Iowa has a quality quarterback of their own who has won this rivalry game twice now, in senior Nate Stanley. Stanley isn't a guy who is going to burn defenses with his arm talent, but he's a steady veteran who has proven he can run this Iowa offense with excellent command. Even with a pair of tight ends off to the NFL, the Hawkeyes still have playmakers that can open things up, such as back Mekhi Sargent and receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette. They also seem to have a significant advantage in the trenches, although they will sorely miss left tackle Alaric Jackson, who is out for a couple weeks with a knee sprain. That could give ISU more chances to cause some pressure off the edge and make Stanley uncomfortable. JaQuan Bailey, Marcel Spears and Ray Lima form the Cyclones' defensive front, which has improved rapidly under the leadership of Matt Campbell, and could be crucial in pulling off a victory. However, the ISU secondary also needs to answer some questions themselves, as they surrendered a number of big plays against UNI and will be facing a much tougher foe here. The fact that College GameDay decided to head to the state of Iowa for a rivalry that is typically more regional than national, just shows how much they respect the growth of both programs, particularly the Cyclones. Campbell has done a superb job developing and growing a talent base in Ames, but one of the most significant things missing from his resume? A victory over their archrival Hawkeyes. Iowa State's offense will need the ground attack to play better, but they have the advantage through the air and appear to have more defensive playmakers. Playing in front of a raucous home crowd that should be especially fired up, the time is now for the Cyclones to end a four-year Hawkeye winning streak in impressive fashion.
The Pick: Iowa State, 28 Iowa, 20

(#1) Clemson Tigers @ Syracuse Orange
Before the Orange went out and lost by 43 to Maryland, it looked like the most important game of the weekend wasn't going to be in Iowa, but instead in upstate New York. Sure, that loss does damper how important this game is on the national scene, but Syracuse has been Clemson's toughest ACC opponent the last two seasons and they get the Tigers at home during their homecoming festivities. Syracuse has to figure what went wrong against the Terrapins on defense, where they gave up 63 points and 650 yards. What was particularly concerning about the defensive performance was how bad they looked stopping the pass, despite the fact they returned all four starters to their secondary in 2019. The Orange now get an even tougher aerial attack to try and contend with, trying to find some way to get in the way of Trevor Lawrence and a receiver corps that includes Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross and now back from injury, Amari Rodgers. Syracuse does have a pretty good pass rush, headlined by Kendall Coleman and Alton Robinson, but will it get enough pressure on Lawrence to make a difference? This is, after all, the QB who scorched an Alabama defense full of future NFL defenders as a true freshman. Containing the two-headed monster Clemson can boast at running back is another tall order, with Travis Etienne's game-breaking speed and Lyn-J Dixon providing a nice change-of-pace. Now, for how bad the defense played against the Terrapins, Syracuse's offense was quietly solid, managing 400 yards despite two turnovers. Can Tommy DeVito figure out a way to move the ball against this Tiger defense? If you're a 'Cuse fan, you have to feel a lot less confident after watching that Clemson defense absolutely shut down the Texas A&M offense this past Saturday. Clemson is especially loaded in their pass defense, where they can throw A.J. Terrell, Tanner Muse and K'Von Wallace all at opponents. Syracuse head coach Dino Babers is going to have to be creative to get the ball to his playmakers, and will not get anything easy from opposing coordinator Brent Venables. Sure, Syracuse beat this Clemson team in 2017 and came agonizingly close to doing it again last year on the road, but things seem a little bit different here. The Tigers are playing like an unstoppable force dominating anything in their path, while the Orange have been a disappointment early on. Perhaps the Orange will be able to cover the four-touchdown spread, but picking them to pull off a huge upset here just seems totally unrealistic.
The Pick: Clemson, 49 Syracuse, 17

(#9) Florida Gators @ Kentucky Wildcats
One of the most surprising moments of the 2018 college football season came courtesy of Florida-Kentucky, as the Wildcats were able to beat the Gators for the first time in three decades. Can they make it two years in a row? Kentucky will get Florida in Lexington, but they will have to make do without their starting QB, as Terry Wilson was recently ruled out for the season with a knee injury. Wilson is a huge loss for Kentucky, as a veteran signal-caller who played an important role in taking down UF last fall. The Wildcats will now turn to Arkansas State transfer Sawyer Smith, who will have to go up against a skilled and aggressive Gators' defense. After a dominant performance in their Week 0 victory over Miami when they recorded ten sacks, the Gators looked just as strong this past weekend, although UT-Martin isn't exactly a super difficult opponent. They are physical up front, featuring pass rushing specialist Jabari Zuniga, but also are extremely talented in the defensive backfield, with corners C.J. Henderson and Marco Wilson. The Gators are going to want to force Smith and this Kentucky offense to throw as much as possible, which means stacking the box up front. Kentucky is still going to give opportunities to Asim Rose & Kavosiey Smoke in the ground game, but if Florida doesn't respect Smith, they're going to have a very tough time. On the other side of the ball, Florida is hoping they can be more consistent, after an up-and-down first few weekends. Quarterback Feliepe Franks has looked solid, but he didn't play well in this matchup last season and loses one of his top playmakers, Kadarius Toney, who plays the Percy Harvin role in this offense. While the Kentucky defense sorely misses linebacker Josh Allen, this is still going to be a group difficult to move the ball on, particularly for a Gator offense that has really struggled to find balance overall. Despite this, it's hard to imagine the Kentucky offense having much success, unless Sawyer Smith is an absolute revelation at the sport's most important position. Playing on the road presents another challenge for the Gators, but I'll stick with them in a close one.
The Pick: Florida, 30 Kentucky, 24

Other Picks
Pittsburgh @ (#13) Penn State: Penn State, 42 Pittsburgh, 28
(#21) Maryland @ Temple: Maryland, 49 Temple, 21
(#2) Alabama @ South Carolina: Alabama, 38 South Carolina, 17
Stanford @ (#17) UCF: UCF, 35 Stanford, 27
Upset Pick: Houston, 38 Washington State, 31

2019 College Football Reaction & Analysis: Week Two

Chip Kelly, UCLA

While we didn't have five straight days of college football like in Week One, the second weekend of the 2019 college football season still brought plenty of fireworks. We saw our first Top 10 battle of the year, even more upsets across the land, and a number of head coaches see their hot seat get even warmer. Here is what I took to be the most important moments of the Saturday, and what I'm looking forward to this upcoming Saturday.

LSU and Their Offense is Legit: Much of the talk surrounding LSU and their offense over the off-season centered around their new commitment to opening things up and passing the ball more. After overcoming a legitimate Playoff contender in Texas, it has become clear that this new offensive strategy is working. Quarterback Joe Burrow was good enough to play his way into the Heisman conversation, shredding a quality Texas secondary to the tune of 471 yards and four touchdowns. He did it by spreading it around to a talented receiver group that includes veteran Justin Jefferson and budding stars Ja'Marr Chase & Terrace Marshall Jr. The question now shifts to whether this unit will be able to continue its current streak. The Tigers' offense had some moments early on in 2018 but struggled in two of their three losses, including not even scoring a point against Alabama. That 'Bama game still awaits in early November, but a number of road blocks before that will give us a clearer picture going forward.

Hot Seat Head Coaches: It was not a great Saturday for second-year head coaches across the college football landscape. This was especially true for a trio who are already feeling their seats get very warm: Jeremy Pruitt at Tennessee, Willie Taggart at Florida State and Chip Kelly at UCLA. Pruitt followed up a stunning home loss to Georgia State by surrendering a comfortable lead against road underdog BYU. Taggart followed up the Boise loss by going down to the wire against Louisiana-Monroe, with a missed extra point helping the Seminoles escape. Then there was Kelly, whose UCLA squad lost their second straight to a Group of Five opponent, struggling once again offensively against San Diego State. All three may be able to survive because they are still so early in their tenure but these are proud programs losing to teams they have no business losing to. Pruitt in particular looks to be in hot water, as the Volunteers have been the complete opposite of the dark horse SEC East contender some thought they could be in 2019.

Is Clemson Ever Going to Play a Close Game Again?: A feisty Texas A&M team that lost by just two points in 2018 looked like an extremely difficult early non-conference game for the reigning National Champion Clemson Tigers. That ended up not being the case, as the Tigers won comfortably, 24-10, with a late touchdown by A&M making things appear closer than they actually were. For all the questions Clemson's defense had going into the season, they looked superb in this one, shutting down Kellen Mond, who threw for 430 yards in this matchup last fall. Brent Venables continues to prove time and time again that he is the best D-Coordinator in collegiate football and worth every single penny of his 2 million dollar price tag. Only helping the Tigers is the fact that their toughest competition in the ACC Atlantic, Syracuse, lost by 43 over the weekend.

Don't Overlook USC: No preseason college football hot seat list was complete without the presence of Clay Helton at USC. Helton was coming off the worst season at 'SC in two decades, and a tough schedule with a young roster didn't make the 2019 season look much better. Yet, even after the loss of QB J.T. Daniels for the rest of the season, the Trojans pulled off an upset victory late Saturday over Stanford. It was a very big win for Helton but also a coming out party for true frosh Kedon Slovis, who tossed for 377 yards and three scores in his first USC start. Could an unheralded youngster at QB like Slovis really be the one to save Helton's job? The Trojan defense still needs plenty of work, but there is significant momentum for this team as it begins a brutal late September-early October stretch that includes Utah, Washington and Notre Dame. If things go right, this could still certainly be a team ready to contend for a Pac-12 South Title.

It Isn't Time to Panic at Michigan... Not Yet: Last season, a tough and hard-nosed Army team came agonizingly close to upsetting Kyler Murray and Oklahoma before the Sooners pulled things out late. Oklahoma recovered to win the Big 12 and earn their third Playoff berth, while Murray of course went on to win the Heisman. This Saturday, Michigan got the Army treatment, forced to battle the Knights into overtime to secure a close victory. Naturally, people have jumped on the Wolverines and Jim Harbaugh for such a close win against an inferior opponent at home. Yet, those same people seemed awfully quiet when OU did the same thing last season. Sure, Michigan's new look offense looked extremely underwhelming in the win, but this Army defense is experienced and well-coached. This could end up actually being a resume booster in the long run for Michigan if they're able to learn from it, as Army has proven themselves as a very quality Group of Five foe.

What I'm Watching Next Week

Washington State-Houston (Friday, 8:15 PM CT, ESPN): Sure, Washington State versus Houston probably isn't going to decide the National Championship race but if you're watching for pure entertainment value, this one is well worth it. These two teams have explosive offenses that love to chuck the ball all over the field, and will see Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen square off with his former boss: Mike Leach. It wouldn't be surprising to see 100-plus points in this Friday night duel.
Iowa-Iowa State (3 PM CT, FS1): The Cy-Hawk rivalry is one of the most underrated rivalries in college football, and the arrival of College GameDay will raise the stakes. The Hawkeyes have looked good early, and have now won four straight against ISU. However, the Cyclones' program continues to rise, and Matt Campbell is going to take down the Hawks at some point.
Arizona State-Michigan State (3 PM CT, FOX): An upset over Michigan State was the highlight of Herm Edwards' debut season with the Sun Devils. Can he pull it off once again in 2019, with a true freshman going up against a vaunted MSU defense. Playing in East Lansing should give the Spartans a further advantage.
Clemson-Syracuse (6:30 PM CT, ABC): This matchup become a lot less interesting with Syracuse's 43-point loss on Saturday, but it should still be worth watching. The Orange have been Clemson's toughest threat in the ACC the last two seasons and they play host to the Tigers during their homecoming, which could keep things intriguing.

College Football Picks 2019: Week Two

Current Picks Record: 6-2 (0-1 Upset)
(#6) LSU Tigers @ (#9) Texas Longhorns

Joe Burrow, LSU

There is not a bigger non-conference game in the 2019 season (with the exception of the postseason) than this early September matchup between LSU and Texas. Both teams have very legitimate Playoff aspirations, and are coming off dominant showings in their opener, with UT stomping Louisiana Tech 45-14 and LSU manhandling Georgia Southern 55-3. That 52-point victory by LSU included a superb showing from QB Joe Burrow, who tossed for nearly 300 yards and five touchdowns. That type of performance is something we aren't quite accustomed to from the former Ohio State transfer, who has long been viewed as a "game manager" type. Yet, with the talent the Tigers have at receiver, this could be a scary aerial attack if Burrow can continue to make smart decisions. Squaring off against a fantastic Texas secondary will be an interesting challenge for the veteran, and he'll have to play smart to avoid throwing turnovers to a pair of ball-hawks in Caden Sterns and Brandon Jones. That likely means LSU will turn to the ground more this weekend than they did against Georgia Southern, when they had just 122 yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, John Emery Jr. and Chris Curry form a powerful trio of runners that should be able to find success against a rebuilding Longhorns' defensive front. Can the 'Horns front seven handle a physical LSU offensive line? They did a good job handling that SEC-level physicality in last year's Sugar Bowl win against Georgia, but the youth in the defensive front is concerning. Texas doesn't really want to turn the game into a shootout, because it doesn't seem like this is an LSU defense you can manage too many points on. Not only can they get after the opposing QB as well as anyone, they have the best secondary in the nation, which includes likely All-Americans Grant Delpit and Kristian Fulton. That isn't to say that Texas can't move the ball themselves, spearheaded by QB Sam Ehlinger (who just happens to be my 2019 Heisman pick). Ehlinger is the type of physical, fearless quarterback that you want going up against an SEC defense, but he'll also need help. While Texas has loads of talent at receiver, their ground game has a lot of questions and UT has made it clear they don't want Ehlinger running as much as he did last fall. The good news is that Ehlinger can not only elevate his plays around him with his energy and talent, but the Longhorns are playing in their home in Austin. That's obviously a major advantage, but will it really matter against LSU? This is a team full of veterans who are used to playing in the most raucous environments college football has to offer, and they won't be intimidated. With that in mind, along with the questions I have about the Texas defense, I'm sticking with the favorite, LSU, in a close one.
The Pick: LSU, 27 Texas, 23

(#12) Texas A&M Aggies @ (#1) Clemson Tigers
After coming within a field goal of upsetting Clemson last season, Texas A&M and Jimbo Fisher get another shot in 2019. It is obviously a tall task to take down a Clemson squad that has won 16 straight, particularly on the road, but don't overlook the Aggies chances in this one. I was shocked to see the Aggies were three-touchdown underdogs in this matchup, as a team that ended last year on absolute fire and has an experienced piece running the show at QB. That veteran signal-caller just happens to be junior Kellen Mond, who picked apart the Clemson defense a year ago to the tune of 430 yards and three touchdowns. He has to feel confident going up against the Tigers defense once again, particularly when considering that they don't quite have the fearsome pass rush they did in 2018 (at least not yet). The Tigers are going to need that pass rush to not only step up, they'll need their leaders in the defensive backfield to play up to their potential. Corner A.J. Terrell is an All-American talent, while safeties Tanner Muse and K'Von Wallace have proven themselves time and time again. They can help their NFL Draft stocks even more by shutting down a dynamic and deep group of A&M wide outs, which includes Jhamon Ausbon and Quartney Davis. You have to imagine defensive coordinator Brent Venables is going to want to force Texas A&M to run the ball as much as possible, even with a relatively inexperienced front seven. While the Aggies ran for 246 yards in their opener against Texas State, this is still an inexperienced running back group that surely still misses longtime feature back Trayveon Williams. On the other side of the ball, A&M will obviously have their hands full with the wide array of weapons Clemson can throw at you. Not only do you have to deal with possibly the best QB in the nation in Trevor Lawrence, you also have to stop one of the best running backs (Travis Etienne) and top two receivers (Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross). Now, the Aggies' defense has taken major steps forward since the dark days of the Kevin Sumlin era, but it is still a unit prone to letting up the big play. They are going to not only have to be ready to stop any type of offensive look, they also are going to have to tackle very well in open space. Getting pressure on Lawrence, who was a little underwhelming in the opener, will also need to be of top priority for Fisher and DC Mike Elko. Sure, A&M played Clemson tougher in 2018 than just about anybody, with the possible exception of Syracuse when Lawrence went down. However, its important to realize that game was before Lawrence was full-time starter, and was in College Station. I think they have a chance to play the Tigers tight again, but an upset just doesn't seem likely, unless the defense is able to somehow dominate and Mond plays lights out again.
The Pick: Clemson, 38 Texas A&M, 28

Army Black Knights @ (#7) Michigan Wolverines
Throughout much of the off-season, Army-Michigan has been circled by many around college football as the annual big-time September upset. And, while Army didn't look great in a 14-7 win over Rice to open 2019, it still stands as a major upset alert for a Michigan team with Playoff hopes. The Wolverines' defense has been practicing all week to defend the Black Knights' vaunted triple-option scheme, but it still is going to be a unique challenge for Don Brown and this unit. Brown is well-known around the country for his blitz-heavy, disciplined defenses, but the triple-option is a whole different animal. He will need a skilled front seven to contain all the different rushers, as well as the secondary to fill holes and make plays going downfield. Expect Michigan to also have a spy on Army QB Kelvin Hopkins the entire game. Hopkins is a dangerous playmaker that really makes this Black Knights' offense hum. He had 80 yards in the opener on the ground, while also adding a score through the air. He was one of eight people who got carries last Saturday for Army, which allows them to stay fresh and energized. The Wolverines are going to have to utilize their depth on defense in order to contain that energy. Army also presents a terrific defense, that held Rice to 243 yards in their opener. They're especially strong in the back-end, where corner Elijah Riley and safety Jaylon McClinton are some of the best in the entire nation. They'll challenge Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson, who was up-and-down in UM's victory over Middle Tennessee. The good news for Patterson is that star receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones is back and ready to go after missing the opener. He'll join fellow wide outs Tarik Black and Ronnie Bell in Josh Gattis' new look, spread, up-tempo offense. That offense, which was the talk of the off-season in Ann Arbor and around Big Ten country, looked good enough for Wolverines fans to feel excited about what they can do going forward. However, the rushing attack is going to have to step up as well, as a group missing 2018's leading rusher and without the suspended Chris Evans. Youngsters Zach Charbonnet and Christian Turner are going to have opportunities against this Army defense, and I wouldn't be surprised if one of them has a real coming-out party. No matter what else happens in this 11 AM kickoff, one thing should be clear: don't bet the over. Not only does Army hog time of possession as well as anybody, the Wolverines are still going to run the ball and slow things down when needed. In that vein, I expect a low-scoring finish between these two and think things could be close down the stretch. Yet, I'll stick with Michigan here, as Army just didn't look ready to take down a Top 10 team in their first action of 2019.
The Pick: Michigan, 24 Army, 14

Other Picks
Cincinnati @ (#5) Ohio State: Ohio State, 35 Cincinnati, 30
(#25) Nebraska @ Colorado: Nebraska, 33 Colorado, 27
(#23) Stanford @ USC: Stanford, 27 USC, 21
Upset: Maryland, 31 Syracuse, 28
Double Upset: Fresno State, 24 Minnesota, 21

2019 College Football Reaction & Analysis: Week One

Derrick Brown, Auburn

Even though Week 0 brought us the official start of the 2019 college football season, things really didn't get rolling until this past Thursday, leading a five-night college football premiere. Although Week 1 only had one ranked matchup, Auburn vs. Oregon, it still had a number of national implications. I decided to break down what I thought to be the most consequential moments of the first football weekend of the year, along with what we can look forward to going in the near future.

Florida State & Tennessee's Rough Starts: No Florida State or Tennessee fan wants to relive this past Saturday, when both proud programs suffered brutal losses to a pair of Group of Five schools. The Seminoles opened up the game with 31 first half points before posting a goose egg in the second, allowing Boise State to mount a thrilling late comeback. Although Boise is a respectable foe, the loss dropped head coach Willie Taggart to 5-8 in Tallahassee without much promise for an improved 2019. Tennessee got it even more embarrassing, with a loss to Sun Belt opponent Georgia State, who went 2-10 in 2018. Not only was it a stunning upset it was especially disheartening for the Vols to see them beat soundly along the trenches. Despite being smaller and slower than the Volunteers, Georgia State pounded them for the better part of sixty minutes. It's hard to see Tennessee finding a way to fix that in the midst of a brutal SEC East slate of games. Another second-year head coach much like Taggart, Jeremy Pruitt felt his seat get quite a bit hotter after this one.

The SEC's Disappointing Opener: Beyond watching just Tennessee get shocked, the SEC struggled in other parts of the country as well. Ole Miss looked completely overmatched by Memphis on the road and managed just ten points in a losing effort. Missouri was also upset, falling on the road to Wyoming. Even the teams that did win on Saturday displayed some serious question marks. Arkansas still is going to be an SEC West bottom feeder, Mississippi State does have some major issues to address on their defense, and Kentucky could be in for an expected rebuild. For a conference that clearly prides itself on being bigger and better than everywhere else, the SEC did not live up to it this weekend. LSU's matchup in primetime with Texas on Saturday will be huge for restoring some of the conference's reputation.

What To Think of Auburn & Oregon: The big game on Saturday was undoubtedly between the Pac-12 favorite Oregon Ducks and the sneaky Auburn Tigers. It was an entertaining game that really seemed to capture the energy of the first Saturday, ending with a surprise twist. Auburn and true freshman QB Bo Nix had a marvelous late comeback victory, possibly quashing Oregon's Playoff hopes before they ever really got started. For Auburn, this seemed to be an important momentum builder and a resume boost, but not a groundbreaking victory. Nix was okay, not good but not bad, in his first collegiate start but showed he will have his limits. The defense played clutch down the stretch, but its struggles in the first half showed there is ground to cover there. I was actually more impressed by the Ducks, who really seemed to come out with the confidence and energy. They asserted themselves as a clear Pac-12 favorite, with the talent up and down their roster to compete sixty minutes with anyone.

Did the Big Ten West Picture Get Any Clearer?: The Big Ten West enters 2019 as college football's most wacky and intriguing division. There probably isn't a Playoff team in it, but it might be the only division in FBS where everybody seems like a pretty realistic contender (with the possible exception of Illinois). If we wanted more clarity, Week One did not provide that, although there are some important things to touch on. Purdue was absolutely stunned by Nevada on the road, making it very possible they could go winless in the non-conference, making bowl eligibility a likely fantasy. Minnesota looked sluggish against South Dakota State, but came out with a close win and gave the fans some excitement with the play of budding sophomore Rashod Bateman. Meanwhile,  their arch-rival Wisconsin looked the opposite, crushing South Florida 49-0 in Tampa. If the Badgers continue to move the ball the way they did against USF, they seem to be the favorite in the division going forward.

Not a Good Day For Retreads: Kevin Sumlin and Charlie Strong are two examples of coaches who struggled at big-name jobs but seemed to be landing in good spots in their new locations, Strong at South Florida and Sumlin at Arizona. Yet, lackluster performances by their teams in their openers seem to be putting both in a precarious spot. Strong won ten games to open his USF stint, but has gone just .500 over the next 14. The fact that he has now lost seven in a row after starting 2018 7-0 has left things very dark in Tampa, at a school that has shown they can win. Sumlin, on the other hand, never really got off to a hot start with Arizona. The Wildcats looked awfully dysfunctional for much of a 5-7 2018 and again looked shaky in a loss to Hawaii. Defense looks like it is once again dooming Sumlin, as the Wildcats couldn't contain their Group of Five foe, allowing 45 points.

UCF Still the Group of Five Team To Beat: While a number of Group of Five teams won big openers (looking at you Cincinnati, Boise, Wyoming, Georgia State), UCF still appears to be the favorite to be the GO5 representative in the New Year's Six. Even breaking in transfer Brandon Wimbush at quarterback, the Knights looked to be in midseason form, dropping 62 in their victory over Florida A&M, including 48 in the first half. Sure, Florida A&M isn't exactly a super strong opening opponent, but it still has to be reassuring for UCF to watch Wimbush look so comfortable running their offense and making plays. The defense, much maligned a year ago, was also terrific, holding FAMU to just 81 total yards. Improved defensive play will be crucial in holding off the other extremely dangerous teams in the AAC, namely Memphis, Houston and Cincy.

Worth Watching: It didn't get as much eyeballs as other Week One performances, but the way Michigan State's defense played on their Friday opener was historical. Their opponent, Tulsa, managed just 80 yards over the course of four quarters, finding no gaps in a suffocating Spartans' unit. Tulsa struggled to move the ball so much, they recorded -73 rushing yards, something not seen since Mississippi State held Florida to -78 two decades ago. While their offense will still need to take steps forward, MSU's defense looked so good its hard to imagine them not contending in the Big Ten East. They are deep, experienced and well-rounded, and bound to keep up with the alphas in the division, Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State.

Heisman Watch: Picking the Heisman after just one weekend of college football is more confirmation bias than anything else, but I decided to take a shot at a Top 5 anyways. Here is where things stand incredibly early:
1. Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma
2. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
3. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
4. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
5. Sam Ehlinger, QB, Texas

What I'm Watching Next Week:

LSU-Texas (6:30 PM CT, ABC): It doesn't get much better than two power programs battling it out in the non-conference. LSU enters this one as the slight favorite over Texas, but the Longhorns have proven they can beat SEC heavyweights, overpowering UGA in last winter's Sugar Bowl. Both offenses looked elite in the first week, but LSU's overpowering defense seems to give them the edge.
Army-Michigan (11 AM CT, FOX): How does Don Brown and the Michigan defense handle the triple-option? Army was a preseason darling (ranked 20 in my CFB Preview) but didn't looked great in their opener against Rice. Michigan is a whole different animal, although crafty QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. could at least keep things interesting.
Clemson-Texas A&M (2:30 PM, ABC): Prior to the LSU-Texas duel, Clemson and A&M give us quite the primer. A&M came within a field goal of upsetting the eventual National Champs last fall, but hope to finish the job in 2019. The Aggies looked terrific in an opening victory over Texas State, while Clemson will hope for improved play from Heisman candidate Trevor Lawrence, who was a little underwhelming in the first week.
Miami-UNC (7 PM CT, ACC Network): Mack Brown's first game back at North Carolina was a surprising success, as the Tar Heels were able to overcome South Carolina in a 24-20 upset. How do they follow that up against one of the Coastal Division favorites? The Hurricanes are hoping to play more polished after a bye this past Saturday, and for improved health for a beat-up secondary.