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| Johni Broome, Auburn |
(1) Florida Gators vs. (1) Auburn Tigers
It will be a battle of SEC foes to get things started in San Antonio on Saturday night, as the Florida Gators and Auburn Tigers collide. Auburn entered the NCAA Tournament as the top overall seed, but instead it's the Gators who enter this game as the slight favorite, according to Vegas. That could serve as a nice motivator for Bruce Pearl's club, who will need every advantage they can muster against a Gator team who seems to be playing with magic after several close, come-from-behind wins this March Madness.
This is not Bruce Pearl's first Final Four team since arriving at Auburn, but this group is much more complete top-to-bottom than the group that nearly played for a National Title in 2019. Leading the charge is veteran forward Johni Broome, who is likely to lose out on the National Player of the Year race to Cooper Flagg, but may just end up winning the consolation prize of a National Title. Broome is the focal point of this offense, a reliable inside-out big man who has turned it up at the most pivotal moments for the Tigers. He's made a major difference in the Tigers surviving against the Michigan schools in consecutive games, as he went for 22 points and 16 rebounds against Michigan and 25 points and 14 boards against Michigan State. Alongside Broome in the post is the defensive anchor, Dylan Cardwell, while Pearl unsurprisingly has his usual collection of guards, including Tahaan Pettiford, Chad Baker-Mazara, and Denver Jones. Pettiford has had his coming out party this NCAA Tournament, including a huge game against Michigan in the Sweet 16, but it feels like Baker-Mazara and Jones are the X-factors for this Auburn team in this one. For as controversial as he is, Baker-Mazara's two-way ability has always been huge and this offense is at its best when he's playing well. The same can be said for Jones, who is the best three-point shooter on the team. The fact of the matter is that Auburn isn't going to be able to keep up with Florida for the entire 40 minutes by bullying in the post with Broome, no matter how good he is. They're going to need to hit threes, and Jones and Baker-Mazara will play an outsized role on that front. In the same vein, as I mentioned in my bracket analysis of Auburn prior to the NCAA Tournament, I think Dylan Cardwell is the unsung hero of this Tigers team. His presence defensively is so crucial to what this team is able to do, and he's going to have his hands full battling these Gator bigs down low for rebounds. If he, and this entire team, can continue to play the high-energy defense they've played during this March run, they're going to find themselves in a good spot. This is the SEC's best three-point defense after all, and they're going to need it to limit Florida's opportunities in this game.
There are teams out there this college basketball season that may be more statistically or analytically impressive offensively than the Florida Gators, but I'm not sure there's another that can score in a hurry the way they can. The Texas Tech game was the prime example of what makes this team so tough to stop - they had their share of shooting woes early on, but then Walter Clayton Jr. decided it was his time to take over. A 12-2 run in the final minutes, punctuated by a huge three from Clayton brought the Gators to the Final Four. Now, Clayton and the rest of this Gators offense will look to carry that momentum against an Auburn team that will give them a battle. To continue their run, Florida will certainly look to Clayton early and often with what he has been able to do this season, but the entire offense must also be on their "A" game. That includes Clayton's backcourt mates, Alijah Martin and Will Richard, as well as big men Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, and Rueben Chinelyu. Clayton's passing ability is the most underrated part of his game, and this offense becomes downright terrifying when it opens up. Yet, you do wonder if head coach Todd Golden may look to shift Florida's strategy in this game and instead look to pound the rock inside more than usual. Sure, Florida sunk Auburn with the three-ball the last time these two met, but this Auburn team does boast a stellar perimeter defense. The Gators may be able to take advantage of their size down low with Condon and Haugh and in the process, potentially get Broome in foul trouble as he has been in several moments during this NCAA Tournament. That's not to say the Gators are going to become some throwback basketball team throwing the ball down to the block on every possession, but as good as Clayton is, I'm not sure how sustainable it is for the offense to continue resting squarely on his shoulders.
It only feels right for the two best teams from the best conference in college basketball this year to be matching up in the Final Four. And, this should be a really fun game between two superb basketball teams. The Gators are understandably the favorites after they've overcome UConn and Texas Tech on this run, but I actually like the Tigers to move on when it's all said and done. I'd argue they are the most complete basketball team, with a coach and roster that has been to this stage before. If they can continue their impressive defensive play, I think they squeak out a hard-fought victory.
Auburn by four
(1) Houston Cougars vs. (1) Duke Blue Devils
Nearly exactly one year ago, Duke and Houston met for the first time in each program's history, with the Blue Devils coming out on top in a hard-fought Sweet 16 clash. Now, the two are set to match up once again, but with even higher stakes this time around. Duke has been perched near the top of the polls all season long and look to be on a journey to their first National Title in a decade. Meanwhile, Kelvin Sampson has the Cougars back in the Final Four for the second time, and is looking to bring home Houston to their first National Championship Game since the mid-1980s.
Any conversation about Duke has to start with Cooper Flagg, the unquestioned No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming 2025 NBA Draft. Flagg has been the most dominant player in college basketball this season, and he's elevated his play in March, including a 30-point outburst against Arizona in the Sweet 16. What makes the true freshman so impressive is in just how many ways he impacts the game - his scoring and rim-rattling dunks get all the attention, but he's an elite defender, active rebounder, and sound rim protector. Just him alone could make this Blue Devils team a challenge to beat, but head coach Jon Scheyer has built a superb roster around him. Kon Knueppel an excellent complement as a No. 2 who score in a variety of ways, guards Tyrese Proctor and Sion James run the backcourt, and up front, Khaman Maluach brings much-needed size. There's just so many different ways this Duke team can hurt you over the course of 40 minutes, and it's a group that plays so well together. There have been past Duke teams that simply mashed together elite high school recruits and McDonald's All-Americans and even with all that talent, they weren't able to live up to their potential. This team is different - they just have the feel of a team that's been playing together for years, and every player can step up and provide if one or two are struggling. Taking away Flagg isn't going to completely change the game, because Knueppel and others can provide more than enough support. The best hope for Houston is to turn this into the grinding rock fight that has become a staple during the Sampson years. And fortunately, they have the roster and personnel makeup to do just that.
There's really anything flashy about Sampson and the Cougar, but no program in college basketball has as clear of an identity as Houston. They're a tough, defensive-minded team that look to bully you for an entire 40 minutes. Their goal is to turn games into low-scoring affairs, and then do just enough to come out victorious. Now, with that being said, this 2024-25 team is a bit different than past Houston teams, and that's a major reason they are in the Final Four. This Houston team has some legit sharpshooters this year in L.J. Cryer, Milos Uzan, and Emmanuel Sharp, a trio that shoots over 40% from three on the season. That has given them some real offensive punch that has been missing in the past, and may be enough to keep them in pace with the Blue Devils the other end. Uzan in particular feels like the X-Factor to me for this Cougars team. Cryer and Sharp are going to find ways to score regardless, but Uzan is very reliant on whether his shot is falling, and he's coming off an underwhelming showing against Tennessee. If he can find his stroke, it opens up this entire offense, and stretches the Duke defense across the floor. If Houston can make Duke work on the defensive end, truly work, it slows this game down enough to put them in a great position. If not and the Blue Devils have the energy they need to get things rolling offensively, the Cougars may not stand a chance. The role of J'Wan Roberts, who is Houston's resident big man at 6'8", can't be understated, either. He's probably going to have to be matched up against Maluach and Flagg most of the game, so will have to stay out of foul trouble. His presence on the glass will also be huge because if there is a way to beat the Blue Devils, it's beating them on the boards. Their lone ACC loss of the season against Clemson, they were out-rebounded 36-23.
Houston was my pick heading into the NCAA Tournament because they just have a tendency to shut teams down. But Duke at this point just feels like an entirely different animal, one that is on a mission. The Cougars are going to need to play their best all-around game of the season to not just contain the Blue Devils, but also put together a strong enough offensive performance. I think they can certainly make this one tough on Duke and a close one deep into the second half, but it feels foolish to pick against Flagg and the Blue Devils at this point in time.
Duke by seven
