Wednesday, March 19, 2025

2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket Analysis: East Region

Cooper Flagg, Duke

The Top Seed: Duke Blue Devils

It may have been a down year for the ACC in basketball this winter, but that was certainly not the case for the league's flagship program. The Duke Blue Devils went out and won 31 games total, including 19 in the conference, and now enter the NCAA Tournament as a National Title favorite. It's clear this is Jon Scheyer's best team since taking over for the legendary Coach K, as the Blue Devil roster is flush with talent. There's the generational star leading the way in Cooper Flagg, tremendous complementary pieces in Kon Knueppel and Sion James, and the steady veterans like Tyrese Proctor. If there is a concern as the Blue Devils reach their most important part of the season, it could be a pair of unfortunately timed injuries. Cooper Flagg's startling sprained ankle in the ACC quarterfinals threatened to derail Duke's season, and he proceed to miss the remainder of the ACC Tournament. It sounds like he'll back for the NCAA Tournament, but it's still worth monitoring, as he's likely not 100 percent. Arguably more important than the Flagg injury just based on the severity of the injury was the loss of forward Maliq Brown, who dislocated his shoulder in the same game. It could be a more important loss than the average person may realize, robbing the Blue Devils of one of their best interior defenders. And yet, you almost wonder if the injury questions could be spun into a positive in a way for Duke as they enter the Big Dance. Not the Brown injury, but the Flagg one, as it gave the rest of the roster a chance to shine in an ACC Title run. Knueppel in particular elevated his play, and now enters the NCAA Tournament playing his best basketball of the season. The same goes for Tyrese Proctor, who just goes out and hits big shots for this team every single game. I mean, would it not be the most Duke thing ever for an injury to the likely National Player of the Year somehow end up being a good thing? This feels like a Duke team on a journey, and another reason to believe? They have the easiest and most straightforward path to the Final Four of any of the No. 1 seeds. This is, without a doubt, a team equipped to win it all this time around, which would be the first National Title brought back to Durham since Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones did it in 2015.

Exercise Caution: Arizona Wildcats

The Arizona Wildcats had a fine introduction year to the Big 12 this winter, recovering from a bumpy non-conference to go 14-6 inside the league. It was good enough to earn a No. 4 seed and set themselves up with a date in the first round against the 13-seed Akron Zips. Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd keeps on churning out victories since taking over in Tucson, but I still have an uneasy feeling about these Wildcats as they prep for the NCAA Tournament. For one, despite Lloyd's success in the regular season, it still feels like he's awaiting his March breakthrough. He's been to the Sweet 16 twice in three seasons, but considering the Wildcats have earned two No. 2 seeds and one No. 1 seed, that feels a bit underwhelming, especially with a shocking first round loss to Princeton sandwiched in there. Even more worrying for me than Lloyd's March struggles, is the fact that point guard Caleb Love is by far and away the most confusing and volatile player in the country. The former UNC transfer can take over games when he's playing well, and it wasn't too long ago he was the heart and soul of the Tar Heels team that played for a National Title in 2022. At the same time, no player can shoot his team out of games quite like Love, and he's had poor numbers across the board this winter for the Wildcats. He's shot 38% from the field and 32% from three-point territory, while shooting at a remarkably high volume - he attempts nearly eight per game. I simply can't put my trust in a team that is led by a player like Caleb Love, the maddening inconsistency just is not worth dealing with. With that in mind, perhaps Love goes out and proves myself and all the detractors wrong with a signature run. He's just that type of player that you have no idea what you're getting on any given night, and that scares me away from Arizona in general.

Don't Forget About: Wisconsin Badgers

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket Analysis: West Region

Alex Condon, Florida
The Top Seed: Florida Gators

For just the second time since their 2007 season completed the journey of back-to-back National Titles, the Florida Gators have earned a No. 1 seed. They did so despite playing in the toughest conference in college basketball, as the Gators ripped off 30 wins total and went 14-4 in the SEC, punctuated by an SEC Tournament Title. Head coach Todd Golden has done a superb job building this roster after taking over a program that was mired in mediocrity under previous head man Mike White. The Gators have the explosive backcourt scoring you need in modern college basketball, led by the trio of Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard. But, they can also bang down low with the best of them in the sport, as forwards Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh and their activity around the basket gives this team an unenviable inside-outside game. Add in the return of center Micah Handlogten, who has come all the way back from a horrifying fractured leg in last year's SEC Tournament and is getting closer to 100 percent, this roster is downright scary. After all, here's a reason Florida lost just one single game by double-digits this winter, a road trip to Knoxville to face off with Tennessee. With all that in mind, how do the Gators handle going from the hunters to the hunted as a top seed? This is the best team they've had in a decade, a group that has been perched near the top of the polls all season long? Are there concerns that they have a tough time adjusting to the rugged, relentless nature of the NCAA Tournament? Perhaps, but that certainly feels like nitpicking, and this team did just play an 18-game conference schedule in the SEC. This team has the looks of one ready for an extended March stay, and I actually think they have the easiest path of any of the No. 1 seeds. That may feel strange to hear considering UConn could be looming in the second round, but if they survive the Huskies, it feels like smooth sailing out West for Todd Golden and the Gators.

The Storyline Team: UConn Huskies

Not since UCLA at the height of the John Wooden era in the late 1960s and 70s has an NCAA basketball team won three straight National Titles. Now, the UConn Huskies enter with a chance to do just that, although the odds feel quite long as they sit on the eight seed line. It certainly has not been a dream season in Storrs - the Huskies' struggles at the Maui Invitational ended up being a sign of things to come, as they finished 14-6 and third in the Big East. While disappointing, to think that this UConn team isn't capable of  run would be foolish. For one, we've seen Danny Hurley do it before. But more importantly, the personnel on the roster is still impressive, even if it looks quite a bit different from the last two UConn teams. Solo Ball, Alex Karaban, and freshman phenom Liam McNeeley have emerged as the leaders on this roster and much consistent offensive threats, and it feels like each has something to prove. Ball has been the breakout star on the team after being little-used in last year's National Title run, but is out to prove he can play the Tristen Newton or Jordan Hawkins role as UConn's lead guard. Karaban has gone through his ups-and-downs, but has been a key cog on multiple National Title teams, and should be able to elevate his play now that he's in March. And then there's McNeeley, who hasn't been 100 percent during the second half of the season, but remains an elite scorer. That's not to say these three are going to pull off the magic of getting the Huskies to yet another National Championship Game, but this is a very scary eight seed. If they can get enough stops against Florida, and also get better production in the paint, it's not crazy to think they can pull off the second round upset. And if that happens, the entire West Region gets blown up - quite the setup for another UConn tournament run.

The Cinderella Candidate: Drake Bulldogs

Monday, March 17, 2025

2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket Analysis: South Region

Tre Holloman, Michigan State
 The Top Seed: Auburn Tigers

Despite playing in the toughest conference in college basketball, the Auburn Tigers have not moved from their perch at the top of the rankings all season long. Bruce Pearl's team now enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament with the top overall seed, holding on to the position despite a loss in the SEC Tournament semifinals to Tennessee. This Tigers team checks just about every box you could be looking for from a National Title frontrunner. They have the star power, led by star forward Johni Broome, the veteran leadership throughout their roster, plenty of shooters, and enough depth to keep them fresh far into the NCAA Tournament. With all that being said, there are two things I'm watching closely with Auburn as we look ahead to the Big Dance: can big man Dylan Cardwell stay out of foul trouble and be an X-factor on the block? And, can veteran guard Chad Baker-Mazara stay out of trouble himself and not let his poor reputation for cheap shots cost Auburn when it matters most? Both feel equally important - Cardwell is the most underrated piece on the team, a longtime Tiger whose defense sets the entire tone for this team. If he can stay on the court, he feels like the type of player that can make all the difference when the margins are so close in the NCAA Tournament. As for Baker-Mazara, he may be the best player on this team not named Johni Broome, but he's cost Auburn at several points this season with his decision-making. Bruce Pearl seems to enjoy guards who walk a fine line between fiery passion and being a detriment to the team but if Baker-Mazara can stay on the court, this Tiger team is much scarier, and their chances to come out of a tricky and deep South Region increase in a major way.

Welcome to the Dance: UC San Diego Tritons

There may not a better story this NCAA Tournament than the UC San Diego Tritons, who made the field in their first year of eligibility after a four-year transition up from Division II ball. The Tritons are no fluke either, as they built a resume that includes a 30-4 record, including an 18-2 mark in the Big West, and a notable non-conference win over Utah State. Guard Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones may not have a household name, but he paces the high-flying Triton offense, as their top scorer, rebounder, and distributor. He leads a balanced unit that can really shoot the ball, shooting nearly 37% from three-point territory this season. Perhaps most important for UC San Diego's opening game against Michigan, this is a team that knows how to force turnovers, and they'll face one of the most turnover prone teams in the country in the Wolverines. It would not be a surprise if they're able to pull a first-round upset, and their path forward could end up being against another Cinderella candidate, as Yale should be a popular pick against Texas A&M in the first round. The Big West Champion has pulled off some major upsets before, and UC San Diego is built like a team that could do just that this time around.

The Cinderella Candidate: Yale Bulldogs

Tuesday, March 11, 2025

My Message to Mark Coyle: It's Time to Move on From Ben Johnson as Minnesota Head Basketball Coach

Ben Johnson, Minnesota

Nearly four years ago to this exact date, Minnesota and head basketball coach Richard Pitino officially parted ways after he served nearly a decade in charge in the Twin Cities. It was clear the program needed a breath of fresh air, and Pitino's final season was the perfect encapsulation of so much of his tenure - full of promise, but ultimately a massive disappointment. Who was the coach athletic director Mark Coyle would tap as his replacement? Names with Minnesota ties like Brian Dutcher, Niko Medved, Craig Smith were all thrown out. But in the end, Coyle ended up throwing a bit of a curveball, hiring first-time head coach Ben Johnson, who was an assistant with Xavier at the time. A former Gopher who played at local Minnesota powerhouse De La Salle High School, it could have been the perfect Hollywood story of the prodigal son returning home and returning a dormant program to glory. 

Four years later, it feels like little has changed. The Gophers have not returned to the NCAA Tournament. They've been a perpetual punching bag in a Big Ten that has only gotten more competitive with the additions of four former Pac-12 schools. And ultimately, the program just feels lifeless. Williams Arena, affectionately nicknamed "The Barn", has never felt quieter. As the program looks to another offseason of roster turnover, it's clear what needs to be done. Perhaps Coyle will be hesitant to move on from Johnson, essentially an admission that the hire failed. But, things simply cannot go on like this - it's time for tough decisions to be made. 

I don't even want this to come off as me completely ripping apart Ben Johnson, even if it will appear that way. From everything we've seen and heard, he's been an excellent steward for the program off-the-court. He clearly has love for the university and the program, and by all accounts seems like a genuinely good guy. There have not been the off-the-court issues that have plagued past Gopher coaches, namely Pitino and Clem Haskins. And to be fair to Johnson, he's a first-time head coach at a tough job in one of the most competitive conferences in America. He was always going up against the odds here, and it didn't help that he inherited quite a mess from Pitino. Much like Pitino, it would not shock me if he is able to land elsewhere and have success. He is just 44 years of age after all, and has held several assistant coach positions at power conference programs - I have little doubt he can catch on somewhere if the Gophers do indeed move on. All that can be true, but that doesn't mean that he deserves a fifth season at the helm. 

Any analysis of Johnson and the Gophers basketball program more broadly also has to take into account that the program has its limitations. It's tough to convince out-of-state kids to want to come to Minnesota to play basketball in the harsh winter. And for in-state kids, most recruits nowadays haven't seen a time when the Gophers were competing for Big Ten Titles. The Barn itself doesn't have the same allure to many recruits it may to many Gopher fans, who have come to adore the unique charm of the older building and the raised court. The value the Gophers put on hockey also means that Gopher basketball fans are not just competing for eyeballs against several other pro teams, but another popular sport during the winter months. Perhaps most important in this current day, it's been no secret Minnesota's NIL fund, "Dinkytown Athletes" was slow out of the gate and simply is not at the level of many of the other Big Ten powers. All of these factors contribute to making this one of the more difficult jobs in power conference college basketball. However, with all that being said, I find the argument that just because this is a difficult job, Gopher basketball fans should accept mediocrity not very compelling. Especially when you consider other programs in the Big Ten that are at, or should be at, a similar level of the Gophers. Illinois went out and snagged Brad Underwood away from another power conference school and after a pair of rough seasons, has been a consistent Big Ten Title contender. Rutgers has been a regular NCAA Tournament participant under Steve Pikiell. Northwestern has now been to the NCAA Tournament multiple times under Chris Collins. Even Penn State, a football school through and through, has played in a more recent NCAA Tournament than the Gophers. Sure, this is a job with limitations, and it's not exactly an easy place to win. But, there's no reason to just accept that's how it's going to be forever. The Minnesota high school basketball scene is as strong as ever, the Gopher NIL fund is picking up, and few places are quite as electric as The Barn when you actually give fans a reason to come. It just needs the right coach to bring it all together.

The reality is that next season is almost sure to be yet another "rebuilding" season for Gopher basketball. Dawson Garcia will have officially exhausted his eligibility after an impressive three season run back in his home state, and he's far from the only Gopher moving on. Parker Fox will finally see his long-running collegiate career come to an end, as will other key contributors like Femi Odukale, Brennan Rigsby, and Mike Mitchell Jr. Even amongst the youngsters, it wouldn't be shocking if another programs swoops in and is able to offer an attractive enough NIL offer to reel them away. Guard Isaac Asuma, one of the most consistent bright spots on this roster, is almost sure to receive significant interest elsewhere. In short, it will be another offseason of Johnson and staff fighting to scrape together a roster through the portal. What confidence level do we have that they'll be able to finally strike magic in Year Five? If they couldn't get it done with the likes of Garcia, Pharrel Payne, Elijah Hawkins, Mitchell, and Cam Christie, is another mishmash of transfer portal pieces going to turn the tide for the program? It's just another reason for Coyle to make the move now, and bring in a new coach who can begin to build a roster that can eventually, maybe, compete for a Big Ten Title. 2025-26 already feels lost, but at least a new head coach would bring some energy and sense of optimism into a program that has felt stuck in the mud for too long. 

At the time of writing this, the Gophers are gearing up for their first Big Ten Tournament game against Northwestern. Perhaps they'll be able to scrounge together a victory against an injury-plagued Wildcats team. And, that may just be enough to earn Minnesota entry into "The Crown", the new tournament FOX Sports has built to compete with the NIT. That shouldn't matter. As much as I wanted Johnson to succeed, we gave him a fair shot and the experiment has failed. It's time to go in a fresh direction with the basketball program. Perhaps with the right hire, Gopher fans can finally feel a sense of optimism as they look towards another likely long offseason, with the hopes that maybe, just maybe, brighter days are ahead in the Twin Cities. 

Tuesday, March 4, 2025

NFL Mock Draft 2025: Edition 3 (Combine Edition)

Abdul Carter, No. 1 to Tennessee

 1. Tennessee Titans

Abdul Carter, DE/LB, Penn State

There remains significant mystery around which direction Tennessee will go at No. 1 overall as the calendar flips to March. Cam Ward still remains a likely option but the deeper we get into the pre-Draft process, the more I get the sense the Titans go a different route. Trading down may be the most realistic but if they do stick firm here, it wouldn't surprise if they took Abdul Carter. The Penn State product has built on a strong 2024 with an impressive pre-Draft and is the clear-cut favorite to be the first defender off the board. He'll upgrade an underwhelming Titan pass rush, while the organization waits on its franchise quarterback.

2. Cleveland Browns

Cam Ward, QB, Miami (FL)

Even before Deshaun Watson's setback in recovering from his ruptured Achilles, there was a sense that the Browns were going to start anew at the position. If the Titans do indeed take Carter, this would be a best-case scenario for Cleveland, allowing them to choose between Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders in this spot. Ward seems to be favored by the NFL world more than Shedeur, and gives the Browns the dynamic playmaker at the position they've lacked for far too long.

3. New York Giants

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado

The Giants are in an interesting spot - despite being one of the worst teams in the league, they're in win-now mode after bringing back both head coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen. With that in mind, it's feeling likely they sign a free agent quarterback as a short-term solution and instead take best player available here - which would be the ultra-versatile Travis Hunter. We still don't know what Hunter's role will be at the next level, but he should find a way to make an immediate impact in the Big Apple.