Showing posts with label National Championship. Show all posts
Showing posts with label National Championship. Show all posts

Monday, April 3, 2023

March Madness 2023: National Championship Prediction

Adama Sanogo, UConn

One of the strangest NCAA Tournaments in recent memory concludes Monday night in Houston, with a game few, if any, expected. The fifth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs, who had never advanced past the Sweet 16 prior to this year, are looking to take down the four seed and favorite, UConn Huskies. For the Huskies, it's an opportunity to prove themselves as one of the sport's true elites; they're searching for their fifth National Title since 1999, a feat no other program has accomplished in that span.

If you're looking for an up-tempo team that plays at a relentless pace, the San Diego State Aztecs are not your team. No, Brian Dutcher's club is one of the slowest-paced teams you'll find in Division I basketball, instead leaning on an efficient half-court offense and smothering defense. That's not to discredit this Aztec offense, which has been very effective this March. They've shown they can beat high-scoring teams by slowing it down and leaning on a balanced offensive approach. Guard Matt Bradley is still the focal point, but I've been routinely impressed just how many Aztecs can contribute on this side of the ball. Senior forward Jaedon LeDee had 12 points in the win over Florida Atlantic in the Final Four and it feels like somebody new steps up every single game. It could be Darrion Trammell, Lamont Butler, Micah Parrish, any of these guys can step up and make a couple big shots to spring an upset. With that being said, it still feels like SDSU is going to need Bradley to be on his "A" game. They've been able to survive even during poor performances from him, such as his two-point showing in the Elite Eight, but the reality is that this team is significantly scarier when he's on. Defenses have to respect his shooting and his ability to stretch the floor opens up ample opportunities for the Aztecs, who thrive off getting to the rim. We will see pretty early which Bradley has come to play; he hit several big shots against FAU early on that helped fuel the eventual victory. No matter what, defense is still the strength for San Diego State and if they do manage to come out on top, it will be the reason. Every young basketball team should watch how the Aztecs play on this side of the ball. They communicate as well as any team I've seen at the collegiate level, and their perimeter defenders are relentless. It also helps that Nathan Mensah is the final defender in the post, as his 7'4" wingspan effects everything at the rim. The defense will be in for a tough battle against the flaming hot Huskies, but they've shut down offense after offense during this run. 

While San Diego State's run has been a major surprise, UConn has splattered opponent after opponent on their journey to the National Championship. They have not had a single-digit win, instead blowing out each team that has stood in their way. That remained the case this past Saturday, as they controlled the Miami game from start to finish. San Diego State will have to contend with a team that is shooting lights out from everywhere on the court, an offense that has dropped at least 70 in every game this NCAA Tournament. Big man Adama Sanogo continues to punish defenders; he had yet another double-double in the Miami game and feels like the runaway favorite to win the Tournament's Most Outstanding Player Award. He'll face a battle against Mensah on the block, but I'm not sure if the Aztecs have seen a player with his skill-set. This isn't your prototypical back-to-the-basket big man. He can step out and hit a three or two and is one of the best passing big men in the country. Surrounding Sanogo are a collection of high-flying guards, including Jordan Hawkins, Tristen Newton, Andre Jackson, and Joey Calcaterra. Hawkins and Jackson are spark-plugs for this offense, while Newton and Calcaterra both understand their roles and find ways to contribute. Then, you add on forward Alex Karaban and center Donovan Clingan, one of the most efficient bigs in the nation, it's no surprise UConn has been so dominant on this run. The Aztecs present an obvious challenge to this offense, but I think it's important to note, UConn is not a one-dimensional team. Not only can they score in a variety of ways on offense, but they play both ends incredibly well. They've matched their offensive intensity with strong defense, including holding Miami to 32% from the field in their win.

The "David vs. Goliath" angle gets overplayed in sports media and it doesn't quite fit this one, considering the fact these two have similar seeds. But there's no denying these two programs are vastly different, one of them being in uncharted territory and the other searching for another title to add to their trophy case. It creates an interesting matchup, particularly between two teams who have opposing strengths. I've said throughout this Tournament that people shouldn't overlook San Diego State, and I feel the same way looking at this one. I may not have expected the Aztecs to make this run, but this is the type of tough, veteran-laden team that is an incredibly difficult out in March. They know exactly what they are and do it well. Plus, that veteran experience really comes out down the stretch in close games, which has helped the Aztecs win several consecutive close contests.

With all that being said, I would feel foolish picking against UConn at this point in the Tournament. This has been one of the most dominant runs I can remember in college basketball history and the team feels like they are on a mission. I suspect Danny Hurley and the Huskies claim their first National Title together, the program's first since Shabazz Napier and company in 2014, a satisfying conclusion to a season that has been full of ups-and-downs in Storrs.

UConn by nine


Sunday, January 8, 2023

2022-23 College Football Playoff National Championship Prediction

Kenny McIntosh, Georgia

The final game of the 2022 college football season features a fascinating battle between two teams with vastly different routes to Los Angeles. Over the past year, Georgia has been the hunted, fresh off their first National Title in four decades and loaded with NFL talent. The same can't be said for TCU, who fired longtime head coach Gary Patterson mid-2021 and replaced him with Sonny Dykes. Dykes has engineered one of the most amazing turnarounds in college football's long history, taking the Horned Frogs from 5-7 to a National Championship appearance. Despite these different journeys, the two collide on the final night of the season with a National Title on the line.

Kirby Smart has turned Georgia into a machine since his arrival in Athens, a program with astounding talent on both sides of the ball that has wrecked nearly every team that has stood in their way this fall. That doesn't mean the Bulldogs have been perfect, but they've never wavered from their position near the top of the polls. However, their success has come in different ways than the 2021 group, which featured one of the greatest defenses in the sport's history. Instead, the 'Dawgs have leaned more heavily on the offense and more specifically, the passing attack. The program has long had a ground-and-pound identity, but quarterback Stetson Bennett and the rest of the passing game have shown a willingness to open things up and take shots down the field. Bennett has his fair share of detractors, but the former walk-on has elevated his game in 2022. He's taken better care of the football and has improved as a playmaker, all while playing his best in the biggest moments. Of course, it helps that the rest of the offense is loaded with former blue-chip recruits, all who play their own role in helping the team succeed. Tight end Brock Bowers receives most of the attention, and for good reason, but this is an incredibly deep receiver room. Arian Smith had the big game in the semifinal, but the Bulldogs can also feature Kearis Jackson, Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint. McConkey has been their most reliable true receiver on the year, but has been beat up over the last month after leaving the SEC Championship Game early. It sounds like he'll be a full go in this one, as is the case with gigantic tight end Darnell Washington, who isn't 100 percent but should play. This group is going to be able to apply a bunch of pressure to a TCU pass defense that has been inconsistent for much of the year. On the ground, Georgia is without their usual star back, but they have a fearsome foursome in Kenny McIntosh, Daijuan Edwards, Kendall Milton, and Branson Robinson. All of that behind a strong offensive line, it's understandable why the 'Dawgs have had what is likely their best offense during the Smart era. It's a stiff challenge for TCU's defense, who hasn't looked great statistically for much of the year, but the Frogs were really impressive against Michigan. They were much more physical up front than I expected and the opportunistic back-end forced several game-changing turnovers. I'd argue Georgia is a tougher task than Michigan based on their depth, but TCU deserves a lot of credit. They'll be ready to go in this one, and I don't imagine they'll be steamrolled by the Bulldogs the way other defenses have been.

As I said in my preview of the Fiesta Bowl, Caleb Williams deserved the Heisman, but there's not a player in the nation who is their team's MVP quite like Max Duggan. The veteran quarterback has battled through adversity his entire TCU career and has been particularly impressive in 2022. He's always been a tough, hard-nosed runner, but his ability to create more with his arm has made the Frogs very scary. He didn't have his best game of the year against Michigan, but did enough to lift his team to victory. He's surrounded by a group of weapons that isn't as deep as Georgia's, but still offers plenty of playmaking. Quentin Johnston capped off an impressive season with a dominant showing against Michigan in the semifinal, and should be able to test UGA's secondary vertically the way Ohio State did. He's joined on the outside by Derius Davis, Taye Barber, and Jordan Hudson, a trio that shouldn't be overlooked in their importance to TCU this season. However, it's the ground game that's been the real fuel behind the Frog offense for most of 2022, with Duggan and Kendre Miller leading the charge. Miller has been tremendous all year but is questionable for this contest. However, Emari Demarcado showed that he was more than just a change-of-pace by running all over the Wolverines last week, totaling 150 yards and a touchdown. This TCU offense now faces an interesting matchup with Georgia, a defense that plays a lot differently than what they've seen in the Big 12. With that being said, it's very important to note that this Bulldog defense is not the 2021 group. They've still been great for most of the season, but the front seven isn't quite as quick or athletic, and the back-end has been a real problem at times. Look no further than the SEC Championship Game against LSU; despite the fact the Tigers leaned on their ground attack all year, they threw for 500-plus against this Bulldog secondary, a group loaded with veterans. TCU is going to be able to put up points and if Duggan can take care of the ball, it wouldn't surprise me to see a shootout unfolding here.

I'll call myself out here: while I felt TCU was deserving of a CFB Playoff spot, I thought they'd be run out of the stadium by Michigan. Clearly, I was way off, as the Horned Frogs once again bucked expectations and advanced to the National Championship. This team has been such a great story that they should feel accomplished no matter the result Monday night, and I like their chances to cover the two-touchdown spread. They're going to be able to move the ball against Georgia, and despite the defense has been a constant source of criticism, they did enough to overcome the Wolverines. But at the end of the day, it feels like Georgia is the smarter pick. Their depth allows them to be fresher than TCU this late in the season and I still believe they own the slight advantage along the lines of scrimmage. The pass defense gives me reason to be wary, but I think they actually match up better against the Frogs than Ohio State. They enter this year's National Championship with a different set of expectations and different motivations, but the result should be the same: a National Title.

The Pick: Georgia, 38 TCU, 31

Monday, January 10, 2022

2021 CFB Playoff National Championship Prediction

Brock Bowers, Georgia

For the second time in half a decade, Alabama and Georgia collide in an all-SEC National Championship. In many ways, the two SEC powers are very alike; both programs have dominated their respective sides of the conference over the past few seasons, both are elite recruiting programs who send waves of players to the NFL every spring, and Georgia's head man, Kirby Smart, is a longtime Nick Saban assistant who led several record-setting defenses in Tuscaloosa. However, there is one clear distinction between the two as they meet up Monday night. Alabama has reached the pinnacle of the college football world multiple times in the last decade-plus, aiming for their seventh National Title since Saban took over. Georgia, on the other hand, has become a program synonymous with getting so close so getting over the top, but finding a way to come up just short. They haven't hoisted a National Title in over four decades and have suffered three distinct, heart-wrenching losses to the Tide in the past decade that all may have cost them a shot at a National Championship. This difference between the two programs puts even more pressure on the Bulldogs to finally finish the job this time around and finish a historical season in Athens.

The top priority for Georgia will be finding a way to slow down the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner, Bryce Young, and the rest of this Tide offense. It's pretty remarkable the season that Young has put together, his first season as starting quarterback. He's tallied 4,503 yards and 46 touchdowns through the air, while keeping his turnovers down and completing 68% of his passes. That would be impressive no matter what, but you also have to consider Young has done so with an Alabama offense that has been significantly more crippled than past units. This particular Tide offense is the thinnest they've been at tailback in years and the receiver corps took a massive hit when John Metchie, their No. 2 receiver, was lost for the year with a torn ACL. These injuries have put even more pressure on the shoulders of Young, top receiver Jameson Williams and lead back Brian Robinson Jr., but they've handled it with relative ease. Williams in particular has taken his play up another notch, as he hauled in seven passes for 184 yards and two scores against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. He killed the Bulldogs deep in their last matchup but without Metchie, expect more intermediate and short routes to help open things up. Alabama will still need more than just Williams at receiver, so keep an eye on names like Slade Bolden, JoJo Earle, and Ja'Corey Brooks. Brooks had a big day in the semifinal win over Cincinnati, while Earle is just one of a young group of wide outs looking for their shot. The ground game is in for a challenge against this physical and athletic Georgia defensive front, but Robinson has been a force all season. He isn't the most talented Tide running back of the Saban era, but is the type of hard, punishing runner that Saban covets. Even so, don't be surprised if offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien works in backup Trey Sanders early and often. Sanders has still been banged up for much of the season, but his speed and explosiveness can add a different element to this offense, which will be key against a Bulldog linebacker corps that is full of future NFL guys. Just as important, the Tide offensive line has to show up after an up-and-down season. They've been dominant down the stretch, but this is still a group that can occasionally struggle against fast front sevens. It's not just defensive tackle Jordan Davis they have to worry about, but the fact that Georgia loves to strategically blitz these linebackers. Butkus Award winner Nakobe Dean, Nolan Smith, Channing Tindall and Quay Walker will come in waves from every different direction. Young is good enough to keep things alive even when the pocket breaks down, but keeping him upright is still going to be of top priority for the Crimson Tide.

As I've mentioned before, Georgia's defense gets all the attention and rightfully so, but this offense has also dealt with injuries all season and still put together one of the best seasons in recent Bulldog history. They've done so with a former walk-on running the show at QB in Stetson Bennett, who is viewed as more of a game manager than anything else, but he's put together an impressive season. Bennett has totaled 2,638 yards and 27 touchdowns and he hasn't been scared of the big moment. There seems to be a perception out there that Bennett isn't good enough to get UGA over the top, but he was far from the issue in the SEC Championship loss, as he passed for 340 yards and three scores. He followed that up by toasting an elite Michigan defense to the tune of 313 yards and three touchdowns. Bennett seems to be playing with more confidence each and every week and any belief that a 5'11", former walk-on can't lead the Bulldogs over the Tide is laughable. Of course, he will need his supporting cast to show up, which includes a trio of productive tailbacks and a deep receiver corps. In the backfield, Zamir White and James Cook will get most of the carries, but expect to also see some of Kenny McIntosh and Kendall Milton. White is the workhorse option in the backfield, but Cook is the real playmaker that the Tide defense will have to game plan for. At receiver, the Bulldogs have been beaten up all season long, but they're getting healthier at the right time. Freshman tight end Brock Bowers has been one of the most surprising stories of the entire 2021 season with how effective he has been in his first year on campus, but expect receivers Jermaine Burton, Ladd McConkey, and Kearis Jackson to be featured heavily. Much like Bennett, McConkey is the type of player that has been underrated his entire career as a slithery six-feet possession receiver, but he's been one of the most consistent weapons on this roster, while Burton and Jackson are two talented playmakers who can hit the home run ball. I am curious to see how aggressive Todd Monken and Kirby Smart are with the deep ball; they didn't test Alabama's secondary too much in that SEC Championship, but this is a different situation. For one, they have to do something to get Alabama on their toes defensively and also, the Tide are banged up at the corner spot, as they went down their top two corners in the semifinal win. Stetson Bennett might not have the prettiest deep ball in college football, but he made some awfully impressive throws against Michigan and should be ready for his chances. Up front, the Bulldogs have the edge over Alabama in terms of offensive line play, but they also face a brutal pass rush that includes superstar Will Anderson. Anderson might be the best player on the field and is the betting favorite to be the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, so anything the Bulldogs can do to neutralize him will be important. One more thing to consider with this Georgia offense is George Pickens, who may be the ultimate wild card of the entire game. Pickens is Georgia's most naturally gifted pass-catcher but a torn ACL in the spring has limited him to very little playing time. He first came back in the rivalry win over Georgia Tech and also caught a pair of passes against Alabama in their last meeting. Don't expect to see him on the field every down but if he can continue to see his role expand, this UGA offense becomes even more dangerous.

Some college football fans may be frustrated that the sport's pinnacle game of the 2021 campaign will come down to a pair of familiar SEC foes, but there are enough storylines to keep fans engaged and excited for the entire four quarters. Alabama's ability to weather a storm of injuries and the rollercoaster ride of the season just confirms the program's elite status and Saban's coaching pedigree. Managing to win a National Title with arguably their weakest team in over a decade would only further cement them as perhaps the greatest dynasty in the sport's long history. Georgia has risen to the ranks of elite in the college football universe, but taking the next step and winning a National Title has proven to be extremely elusive. Is this the year, and the team, to finally rid the program of their demons and reach the mountaintop? There's no better opportunity to get the monkey off their back then beating a familiar rival in the National Championship Game.

The last meeting between these two teams in the SEC Championship Game proved to be a decisive Alabama victory, but I have a feeling that this game will be different. Not only are the stakes higher, but the Bulldogs have had more time to prepare for the mighty Crimson Tide and are healthier than they were several weeks ago. Picking against Nick Saban and Alabama is something I never like to do and they've made me look like a fool on numerous occasions. However, I truly believe that this year's Georgia team is different. It's not just the product they put on the field, but the energy and attitude around the program feels completely different. It really feels like this could be a turning point for Georgia football, and the time is now. I'm picking the Bulldogs to hoist their first National Title since 1980.

The Pick: Georgia, 28 Alabama, 24

Monday, April 5, 2021

NCAA Basketball National Championship Prediction 2021

Drew Timme, Gonzaga


The NCAA Tournament is a sporting event known for its chaotic nature, and the 2021 edition has not disappointed. UCLA made an improbable run from "First Four" to the Final Four, sending undefeated Gonzaga into overtime before a miraculous game-clinching three-pointer from Jalen Suggs. Oregon State went from a middle-of-the-pack Pac-12 team to a near Final Four squad, and Oral Roberts came agonizingly close to becoming the first 15-seed to ever play in the Elite Eight. However at the end of the day, the 2021 NCAA Tournament concludes with a bit of normality: the top two college basketball teams all season squaring off for the National Title. Gonzaga is looking to become the first team in over four decades to go an entire year without a loss, while Baylor is seeking their first National Title in program history. With two loaded lineups that can put up plenty of points, it should be an exciting National Championship Game.

Gonzaga got their toughest matchup of the entire season on Saturday, as 11th-seeded UCLA gave them all they could handle before the Suggs shot, which should live forever in March lore. Even though the Bulldogs were nearly upset, just about every strength of this team was on display. Suggs had an uneven performance before a huge block and the shot, showing just how clutch the true freshman is. Forward Drew Timme fought through foul trouble and was still the most consistent offensive player in the Final Four. Corey Kispert had a bad shooting day but still found ways to make an impact. Then there were Joel Ayayi and Andrew Nembhard, considered "complementary pieces" who might've played a larger role in securing the 'Zaga win then anybody else. This lineup is loaded with experience and star power top to bottom. The trio of Nembhard, Ayayi and Suggs not only puts up plenty of points, they're incredibly efficient. They shoot the ball at an incredibly high percentage, and are some of the best passers I've ever seen at the collegiate level. I'd be shocked if Kispert's shooting struggles continued onto the National Championship, while Timme is the type of polished big with a feathery touch around the rim. I'm not sure if Gonzaga is as deep as Baylor, but they won't need to be if they can avoid early trouble. Either way, it's a group that has proven they will put up points no matter their opponent. That should be the case, even against a Baylor defense that is particularly tough.

The Baylor Bears may not have the big name stars that Gonzaga has, but the offense has proven it is just as explosive. Guards Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell are both SEC transfers (Butler enrolled at Alabama, Mitchell from Auburn) that have found a new home with Baylor, evolving into two of the best offensive players in the nation. Butler is the team's top scorer per game, while Mitchell is their top passer, coming off a Final Four game against Houston in which he tallied 11 assists. This pair will lead the way, but there is plenty of other Bears that should make an impact, including Adam Flagler, Matthew Mayer, MaCio Teague, and Mark Vital. There's a nice mix here of sharpshooters (Flagler, Teague), but also nice offensive versatility (Mayer, Vital). I'll be intrigued to see what offensive gameplan head coach Scott Drew leans on here; this is a free-flowing group that loves to shoot, but they do have a slight advantage in size down low. Do they look to pound it inside, and get Timme in foul trouble? There's a nice little chess match that should go on here between Drew and Gonzaga's Mark Few. We know both offenses can score, but will they go about it in different ways?

One of Gonzaga's strengths is transition, something that Drew has already addressed in the lead up to this game. The Bulldogs are exceptional at getting downhill and making the right decisions in transition, which gives them a bunch of easy buckets. I thought that UCLA would be able to keep up with this and somehow slow them down, but they were mostly unsuccessful. Now, the pressure is on the Bears to slow down the pace a bit and force Gonzaga into the halfcourt. The Bears did a fantastic job of doing this against Houston, and made them work for every shot attempt they got in the Final Four. Gonzaga is a much, much better offensive team than Houston, but that doesn't mean facing off against Baylor's defense is easy. It's a group that I've enjoyed watching all year long, because they move so well and communicate so effectively. They might not force a bunch of turnovers or record a bunch of blocks, but they're still an incredible defensive team. If they can make just enough stops, they might not even have to have their best offensive game the other way.

This is the most excited I've been for a National Championship Game in some time, and it may go down as one of the most anticipated of all time. On one side Gonzaga is not only looking to complete the undefeated season, but also prove that despite them playing in the weaker West Coast Conference, they are one of the sport's elite programs. Baylor is looking to not only play spoiler, but also put a bow on the historical rebuilding job Drew has done. I think these two are so evenly matched, you could theoretically flip a coin. I have gone back and forth on who I will end up picking, but I've long believed that Baylor is the one team that I think matches up favorably with Gonzaga. Not only do they have the offense to keep up with the Bulldogs, they are deeper and more experienced, with the perimeter shooting that can overwhelm teams. While I don't think we should read too much into either Final Four game, I think that Gonzaga's performance is fairly important. They showed incredible grit and resilience to come out with the win, but they also played 45 minutes of physical, tough basketball. Baylor will not only be fresher, they won't have the added pressure of an undefeated season hanging over them. Those two reasons are just enough to convince me to roll with the Baylor Bears, taking home their first National Title ever.

The Pick: Baylor by four

Sunday, January 12, 2020

College Football Playoff National Championship Prediction 2020

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
A thrilling 2019-2020 season concludes this Monday with the biggest game of them all: the 2020 National Championship. The two best teams in the country will battle it out for 60 minutes in New Orleans, as LSU and Joe Burrow look to cap off their memorable 2019 with a final victory, while Clemson hopes to claim their third National Title in four seasons. The skill of these two offenses, the personalities on the sideline, and the storylines all colliding here should make for a picture-perfect National Championship. But, only one team can come out on top as the 2019-20 National Champion.

Any talk of LSU this season begins with Joe Burrow, who has put together the best single-season quarterback performance since Cam Newton in 2010. He has been purely dominant, without a single down game you can point to, all while collecting 5,208 yards and 55 touchdowns through the air. With the Heisman Trophy secure, you get the feeling there is one thing on Burrow's mind, and it isn't the NFL: a National Title. It just so happens that Burrow is also blessed with a fantastic receivers corps, headlined by veteran Justin Jefferson and sophomores Ja'Marr Chase & Terrace Marshall. And, you can't forget about tight end Thaddeus Moss, the son of Randy, and an excellent vertical passing threat. That collection of wide outs has obliterated opposing secondaries all season, including embarrassing Oklahoma in the semifinal. Then, you look at running back, where Clyde Edwards-Helaire remains vastly underrated, and Chris Curry looked like he could also fill in as the feature guy with Edwards-Helaire not 100 percent in the Peach Bowl. Edwards-Helaire should be as close to 100 percent as possible, and one only has to watch the Alabama win to recognize his importance in this offense. When you're finished gushing over the talent at the skill positions, LSU also hits with their offensive line, which was the nation's best in 2019. Not only did it keep Burrow upright all year, it opened up massive running lanes for this backfield. With all that on offense, it's no wonder the Tigers averaged nearly 49 points per game, and dropped 63 on Oklahoma. This is an offense with essentially no weaknesses to point to, and it's hard to imagine them not having another incredibly productive day, even going up against Brent Venables and this Clemson D.

Clemson might not have Joe Burrow, but they have a pretty special quarterback themselves in Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence became a household name with his dominant play in the Playoff last winter, but his struggles in 2019's first month seemed to really kill the buzz that was surrounding him. Less attention certainly seemed to benefit the true sophomore, as he has played as well as anybody not named Burrow over the season's final few months. He has thrown 22 touchdowns without an interception, his last one coming against Louisville in mid-October. Lawrence has also shown impressive toughness, which was on full display in that gutsy Ohio State win. He was nailed all night by the Buckeyes, which only seemed to make him stronger. He's going to be overshadowed by Burrow most of the night, but if Clemson does pull it out, Lawrence is certainly going to be a major reason why. Much like LSU, Clemson also has an abundance of weapons to further aid their star quarterback, including receivers Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross and Amari Rodgers, as well as explosive running back Travis Etienne. That trio of wide outs is really impressive, and can match up with LSU's group really well. They're also an incredibly tough group of players; both Ross and Higgins took a beating in the Fiesta Bowl, while Rodgers is less than a year removed from a torn ACL suffered in the spring of 2019. Etienne is actually going to end up being a pretty important X-factor. Getting the ground game rolling is always of top priority for the Tigers, and he can break open a game every time he touches the ball. With all the eyes on the quarterbacks, don't overlook the importance of these running backs in this game.

With all that offensive talent on both teams, one would expect a lot of offensive fireworks and a lot of points here. Yet, I'm actually very excited to see what these two defenses look like, and the chess match between the two defensive coordinators, Venables for Clemson and Dave Aranda for LSU. On one hand, LSU's defensive numbers aren't overwhelming; their 21.2 points allowed per game are good not great, and they don't exactly live in opponent's backfields, as their 33 sacks this season are middle-of-the-pack. But, you have to consider that they went into 2019 without their unquestioned leader, linebacker Devin White who is now playing on Sundays, and the fact that with how much this offense scores, the defense is on the field a lot. When considering those two factors, Aranda has once again done a good job crafting a physical, well-rounded defensive unit. The secondary is the unit that gets the most attention on this LSU defense, and for good reason. Not only do they have Jim Thorpe Award winner Grant Delpit roaming the back-end, they have two of the best cover corners in collegiate football in Derek Stingley Jr. and Kristian Fulton. Stingley in particular is a guy to keep your eyes on; he's only a true freshman and yet he'll match up against opponent's top wide out all night and still shut him down. Up front, the Tigers don't have as many big names, but they can still cause offensive lines issues. Linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson missed nearly all of 2018, but has responded with a 6.5-sack campaign. This is a rock-solid Clemson offensive line, but LSU is still going to hit them in some unique ways, it will be intriguing to see how they handle it.

At this point, Clemson's reloading on defense has become commonplace, but that doesn't change how impressive it is. Once again, the Tigers suffered a mass exodus to the NFL ranks last off-season and how do they respond? Only by putting together the most efficient defense in the entire country and allowing just 10.6 points per game on the year. Losing their entire defensive line has made Venables' job tougher in terms of pressures and blitzes, but a number of Clemson defenders have emerged to fill the leadership and production voids. The Tigers are especially strong in the back-end, where they're loaded with experience and future NFL talent. A.J. Terrell and converted wide out Derion Kendrick are a potent 1-2 punch at corner, while veterans Tanner Muse and K'Von Wallace can really do it all. Then, there is Clemson's linebacker group, which technically includes the ultra-versatile Isaiah Simmons, and was massive in their upset of Ohio State. The ultimate question: is this the group that can finally slow down Joe Burrow? I will say, this is going to be the toughest secondary Burrow has seen this season, and outside of maybe Auburn, by far and away the toughest defense. It's also a group that captures the "bend not break" mentality. Against Ohio State, their ability to force three field goals and only one score in the 16-0 lead was a major reason why the Tigers were eventually able to come back and secure the win.

So, after looking at both of these offenses and defenses, where does that leave us? Well, one thing is definitely certain: it's going to be a competitive game. Neither team has a distinct advantage on either side of the ball, and while each do have some weaknesses, they aren't significant enough to base an entire prediction off of. In matchups like these, that are truly "coin flip" games, I have a general philosophy: go with the team with more experience, and the team that has been there before. Simply put, Clemson has been on this type of stage every season since 2015, and proven they can beat the biggest and best. This team and staff have earned my respect, and while I don't think they're going to be able to completely slow down Burrow, I think they can do just enough to bring a fourth National Title to Clemson, South Carolina.

The Pick: Clemson, 41 LSU, 35

The National Championship... By the Numbers

0 - Number of career losses for Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. He is a perfect 25-0 as starter for the Tigers, and Clemson has won 29 straight games.

202 - It's been a long time since Trevor Lawrence has thrown an interception. Not only does he have 22 touchdowns in that span, he has thrown it 202 times without throwing it to the opponent.

25 - LSU has not trailed an opponent in 25 quarters. The last time they trailed was against Auburn in late October, when they were down 13-10 in the third quarter.

8-2 - In their last ten games as an underdog, Clemson is 8-2 overall. They're also 12-2 against the spread in their last 14 neutral site games.

94.2 - The combined points per game totals of these two offenses. LSU averages 48.9 per game, while Clemson is just behind at 45.3.

228 - This game could well be decided by who wins the second quarter. Both play their best in the closing seconds of the first half, as LSU put up 228 points in the second period this season.

Monday, January 7, 2019

College Football Playoff Championship Prediction 2019

Justyn Ross, Clemson
Even with 126 other teams vying for the same trophy, Alabama and Clemson will meet in the College Football Playoff Championship Game for the third time in four seasons. Some are tired of the two program's dominance over the sport, but you have to appreciate the consistency and reliability of the two, especially in the Playoff era. The amazing thing is that these actually might be the two best editions of each team that will meet in the National Championship. Clemson is absolutely loaded on defense and seems to only be getting better with Trevor Lawrence running the show, while Alabama has their best offense in the Nick Saban era and is stocked defensively as well. Its understandable to have some fatigue when it comes to Clemson-Alabama, but this game should be extremely exciting, and feature so much of the stuff that makes college football great.

Since Trevor Lawrence took over for veteran Kelly Bryant at quarterback (with the exception of the Syracuse game, which he left with injury) Clemson has been averaging nearly 48 points per game and moving the ball at a pretty incredible rate. That begs the question: could this Clemson offense be even better than the 2015 and 2016 units that Alabama saw, which included Deshaun Watson and a bunch of other future NFL players? With the versatility, balance and playmaking potential at their disposal, it might not be crazy to say it is. Lawrence has played with a confidence and maturity well beyond his years; he dismantled a strong Notre Dame defense in the Cotton Bowl and he should be ready for the Crimson Tide. Alabama will also have to contain receivers Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross on the perimeter, as well as Hunter Renfrow, who has played a huge role the last couple times these two have met. The Tigers will also feature a great combo at running back in Travis Etienne and Tavien Feaster. Etienne was quiet in the Cotton Bowl, but his explosiveness is key for this offense, while Feaster is sure to see plenty of action as the short yardage option. These weapons do all this working behind a skilled offensive line, spearheaded by future NFL tackle Mitch Hyatt. There is speed all over the field, as well as a physical nature when need be. The thing is, that this Alabama defense is of course light years ahead of what Clemson saw for most of their schedule in the ACC. It should be quite an interesting challenge for Lawrence and Etienne especially; those two have been terrific all season but haven't faced much adversity or the types of hits Alabama defenders can lay down. How will Lawrence react when Quinnen Williams and company are bearing down on him every play? If Etienne struggles early, will he shut down? Beating Alabama is so difficult that you need nearly everything to go right, and also likely get a fair bit of luck. If Lawrence and company aren't ready or get pushed around early and let it get to them, the Tigers chances of coming out on top in this one slim significantly.

The Crimson Tide are also going to counter with their own explosive offense, which is led by Heisman runner-up Tua Tagovailoa and Biletnikoff Award winner Jerry Jeudy. Tagovailoa plays well beyond his years as well, and already has ample experience on the sport's biggest stage. The most important thing for Tua in this one will be understanding when to try and make a play and when to just accept nothing is going to happen. Oftentimes, he's tried to stretch nothing into something, which can compound mistakes, or in his case, lead to injury. Tagovailoa states he is basically 100 percent recovering from an ankle injury suffered in the SEC Championship Game, but he can't continue to take on these injuries, even with a savvy backup like Jalen Hurts waiting in the wings. Much like Clemson, the Tide can hit you hard with a physical style of offense they're accustomed to, or with some really terrifying speed on the perimeter. Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs are a load to handle, especially for a Tigers' defense that is missing tackle Dexter Lawrence, who played a huge role in run support. Jerry Jeudy has proven he can open up games every time he touches the ball at receiver, as well as Jaylen Waddle, Henry Ruggs and the guy who caught last year's game winner in the Championship, DeVonta Smith. This amount of versatility and big-play potential is something we really haven't seen from an Alabama offense under Nick Saban, which is obviously scary. This is not simply a run-heavy, conservative unit, as Clemson has mostly seen in their last few matchups. This offense will pose a unique challenge to Brent Venables and the Clemson defense, which will have to be on its A game to contain it.

Even with how good both of these offenses clearly are, the fact of the matter is that the two defenses might be even better. In an era where players are leaving for the pros as fast as they can, the Tigers somehow managed to retain Christian Wilkins, Austin Bryant and Clelin Ferrell, all who could have went to the NFL this past spring. The trio will definitely miss Lawrence, who was ruled out for the Cotton Bowl and this game due to a failed drug test. Yet, veteran Albert Huggins played well in the semifinal in Lawrence's place and should still be able to contribute, and even if the rotational guys have proven they can cause chaos in opposing backfields. That defensive line definitely gets a ton of attention, and for good reason, but Clemson also has a back-end that will be crucial in containing the Crimson Tide. Isaiah Simmons led this team in tackles at linebacker, and veterans Kendall Joseph and Tre Lamar have played and won countless big games. That veteran experience continues on to the secondary, where Trayvon Mullen and A.J. Terrell will have to play well to contain Jeudy and the other Alabama receivers. Defensive coordinator Brent Venables is one of the best in the business, and it will be interesting to watch how he chooses to counter 'Bama. He's well known for his exotic blitzes and ever-changing coverage looks, and my guess is he'll come at the Tide with a bunch of different personnel packages and matchups. This defense is comparable and even better than the Georgia defense that gave Alabama so much problems in the SEC Championship. Even with a healthy Tua, I don't see Alabama getting anything easy here.

Of course, Alabama is no slouch on the defensive side of the ball either, also coming at offenses with a ferocious pass rush and versatile defensive backfield. Quinnen Williams has been absolutely unblockable at times this season for the Tide, including the Sugar Bowl and victory over LSU. Clemson is going to almost have to double team, which could open up lanes for others, such as Raekwon Davis or Isaiah Buggs. Alabama's rush defense is their usual selves, thanks in large part to a rangy group of linebackers, which includes Dylan Moses and hard-hitting Mack Wilson. Then, in the secondary, they have All-American safety Deionte Thompson and a number of young guys that play much older, such as Saivion Smith and Patrick Surtain Jr. The biggest question for this defense is whether or not they can stop the big play. They have done a great job limiting it all season long, but this Clemson unit is a whole different animal.

Josh Jacobs, Alabama
Both of these teams have offenses and defenses that are pretty phenomenal top to bottom. There are also evenly matched, with neither team having a clear-cut advantage over the other one, in my humble opinion. That means that this game could end up coming down to different, seemingly less important factors such as special teams, or even motivation. Clemson seems to have the clear edge in the motivation aspect, although the Tide would of course love to add another notch in Saban's title belt. The Tigers were demolished by Alabama in last year's Playoff semifinal and Wilkins, Bryant and Ferrell all talked about wanting to come back and get vengeance. They've also had to endure talk all season about Tua and his Heisman chances, and how this could be "the best Alabama team ever". You can guarantee that they want to get out there and show what they can do. In a game with so much talent on the field at one time, expect special teams to play a role. Field position is going to be crucial, and a missed field goal or extra point will sway the momentum in a big way. Neither team has a distinct advantage here, but Alabama's kicking woes have been well documented.

I'm gone back and forth on who I think will be crowned National Champion when its all said and done. These two are clearly the best two teams in the country, but only one can take it all home. While I think stopping Tua and the Tide's collection of receivers will be incredibly difficult, I'm picking the Tigers in a close game. Trevor Lawrence will be facing down the toughest defense he probably has ever seen, but I think he'll be ready and this Clemson team has the size and strength to compete with Alabama for sixty minutes, something few others can say. I also think Venables and this staff are going to come up with some creative ways to shut down Tua and this offense, putting the Tigers in the best possible position. Even after months of football, I'm sticking with my preseason pick: the Clemson Tigers.
Clemson, 34 Alabama, 31


Monday, April 2, 2018

NCAA Basketball National Championship Prediction 2018

Donte DiVincenzo, Villanova
After one of the craziest college basketball seasons in recent memory we have arrived at the finale: a clash between one-seeded Villanova and the three seed, Michigan. Villanova has been on of the rare constants in such a wild season, going 35-4 and rolling past teams en route to their National Championship berth, which included a stomping of Kansas in the Final Four. Meanwhile, Michigan has been less consistent, but there is no denying the great basketball they are playing. Following a thrilling, buzzer-beating win over Houston in the second round, the Wolverines have been on a mission, and come in to this one two days after ending Loyola-Chicago's miraculous run. This game is sure to keep scoreboard operators busy, and sure to be competitive, but only one will be crowned National Champs.

Even though they rarely reel in high-profile recruits (with some exceptions) and aren't the biggest name in the sport, there is no denying how much of a power Villanova has become. Head coach Jay Wright has had the Wildcats as the class of the Big East consistently for some time now, and now they stand just forty minutes away from their second National Title in three years. Wright has a roster well-suited for modern basketball, with an astounding amount of versatility and balance. Nearly every single player on this roster can shoot, and all help this team succeed in different ways. Point guard Jalen Brunson, the National Player of the Year, is the clear leader of this team. Brunson isn't a very flashy player and as Michigan coach John Belein explained, "He plays like an old man." Yet, he is extremely effective at creating for his teammates and using his craftiness to finish around the rim. Joining Brunson is a fantastic supporting cast that boasts big man Omari Spellman, swingman Mikal Bridges and underrated Donte DiVincenzo. Spellman is Villanova's most traditional big, but the youngster still can shoot and space the floor. He will be a tough matchup for whoever guards him, most likely the Wolverines' star big, Mo Wagner. Bridges and DiVincenzo are great offensive weapons, but their defense may be the most important thing for 'Nova here. Michigan's great selection of guards and wings will be incredibly hard to contain unless Bridges and DiVincenzo can slow them down significantly. Beyond that, Villanova does have some other weapons, but overall this team is not necessarily incredibly deep. So far, it hasn't hurt them in this Tournament, but it will be intriguing to see if Michigan, a team that loves to run, can exploit that lack of depth.

For Michigan, much of their success this year can be attributed to the addition of Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews and the improvement of Wagner and guard Zavier Simpson. Matthews was known primarily as a defender prior to arriving in Ann Arbor, but his size and strength has helped him evolve into a really dangerous offensive player. Wagner decided not to go to the NBA despite interest last off-season and the German center has shown an improved jump shot and better feel around the rim. And then there is Simpson, who combined with veteran Muhammed-Ali Abdur-Rakham give the Wolverines two incredible athletes that can score in a variety of ways. All of those guys should play a huge role, but the X-factors reside in the frontcourt, primarily Wagner and forward Duncan Robinson. Considering Villanova's lack of size, Wagner has the chance to have a huge day, especially if he can get Spellman in foul trouble early. Robinson, who started his college basketball career at the D3 level, is a sharpshooting four that really opens up this offense when he is playing well. However, Robinson has not had a great Tournament, and Michigan has really struggled when he has had issues. If the senior can play well and hit some big threes, it gives Michigan a chance to keep up with Villanova's terrific shooters.

Last year, Gonzaga-North Carolina had a Championship Game that felt incredibly old school. It was a very slow-paced game that was run through the post, reminiscent of a college basketball game decades ago, when dominant big men were the norm. That is not going to be the case this year as these two teams represent where the sport is going today: lots of threes and lots of shooting. Michigan probably will try and slow things down a bit to keep up with Villanova offensively, but this is still a game where both could drop 80-plus. It is also a battle that features two coaches who have been here before, and are some of the best in the business. Despite the momentum Michigan has built and their advantage of size and depth, Villanova is the pick here. The way Villanova is playing they look unstoppable, and picking against them just seems foolish. In a sport where parity reigns supreme, the 'Cats look poised to win their second National Title in three seasons.

Monday, January 8, 2018

College Football Playoff Championship Prediction 2018

Jalen Hurts, Alabama
Last season, one of the most popular questions was the perceived downfall of the SEC. Once the
clearly dominant conference in college football the conference lacked much substance behind Alabama, as every other SEC team had at least four losses by the end of the 2016-2017 season. Now, a year later, the conference has two teams playing for a National Title, as fourth-ranked Alabama tries to add another title to their resume against the third-ranked Georgia Bulldogs. Both teams fit the SEC stereotype perfectly; they play tough, physical football between the trenches and make opponents work for every yard. Expect a hard-fought, close football game in Atlanta to decide who becomes king of the college football world.

Georgia's transformation from 8-5 team with potential in 2016 to a National Title contender in '17 has been one of the great stories of the season. Even more impressive is the fact Georgia has won 13 games with a true freshman quarterback under center who began the year as a backup. Jake Fromm took for injured sophomore Jacob Eason early on in the season and the Bulldogs haven't looked back. Fromm showed some nerves early in the team's Rose Bowl win over Oklahoma, but his play in the second half was marvelous, and he shouldn't be too overwhelmed by the moment. Squaring off against the speed and size of Alabama's defense is intimidating for anyone, but Fromm will also be helped by a superb supporting cast. In the backfield, seniors Sony Michel and Nick Chubb will look to end their impressive Georgia careers in style. The two entered campus together as young freshman and now leave as seniors, after many years of setting records and torching defenses. Chubb will be the the option for short yardage, while Michel excels at getting outside and using his speed. Fromm will also have Terry Godwin and Javon Wims available in the passing game, as while as the help of a very strong offensive line. UGA has good experience and plenty of depth throughout the offense as a whole, which will serve them well here. It is easy to be challenged by a big stage especially against a team like Alabama, but these veterans have played in big moments before and should be ready.

Even though Georgia did drop 54 points in their overtime victory over Oklahoma, this is still a team that will lean more on their defense than offense. The defense, which is of course led by former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart (now UGA's head coach), has a ton of speed and is extremely physical. The front seven is very athletic and should pose quite a threat to Alabama's rushing attack. They will be especially lethal if star linebacker Roquan Smith can have the type of game he had in the Rose Bowl. After a poor first half, Smith was an absolute stud in the second half, and a major reason why the Bulldogs were able to overcome Oklahoma. Expect Georgia to stack the box heavily and force Alabama to throw it down the field. The Bulldogs' secondary is also very experienced and consistent. If they can contain star Alabama wide receiver Calvin Ridley, they could very well shut down the Crimson Tide in this one.

It is no longer being led by flashy offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, but Alabama's offense has still be as effective as ever under new OC Brian Daboll. Even though his passing numbers still leave something to be desired, sophomore Jalen Hurts is still a major difference-maker at QB. Hurts can absolutely kill teams with his legs, and UGA will have to prove they can tackle him in space. Alabama will clearly run heavily in this one, even if they are going up against the stout Georgia front. Damien Harris led the team in rushing on the season but he is far from the lone option. Powerful Bo Scarbrough was great in last year's Playoff, and could be used heavily in this one. Also expect to see backs Joshua Jacobs and true frosh Najee Harris. It will be interesting to see how Daboll and 'Bama use Calvin Ridley in this one. Ridley is their clear-cut No. 1 receiver, but he will be challenged heavily by Georgia in this one. Expect the Tide to still get him involved anyway possible, whether it be on screens or sweeps. Up front, Alabama is still as powerful and tough as ever. They aren't going to be able to push Georgia around like they have been able to do against inferior opponents, but they still have a chance to control the line of scrimmage. In a game where field position and every yard will matter, that will be vitally important.

Despite the fact they suffered through injuries for most of the season, Alabama's defense was just as good as ever under coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, who will now take over as Tennessee head coach after this game. However, the Tide were informed of some terrible news this week: linebacker Anfernee Jennings, who injured his knee against Clemson, will be officially out for this one. Losing Jennings, an impact defender off the edge, will be tough to swallow, but the Tide have guys ready to step up. That includes award-winning defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick, who will battle through a kidney injury to be ready in this game. Fitzpatrick, who can fill in at either corner or safety, is a turnover machine that also excels on blitzes. His main purpose will be to cause chaos and confusion for Fromm and the Georgia offense, which he could have success doing. Fitzpatrick will lead a fabulous Alabama secondary that includes corners Anthony Averett and Levi Wallace and has plenty of versatility. Up front, Alabama's D-Line will have a challenge against UGA's offensive line, but they should still be able to provide some push. Raekwon Davis, who suffered a gun shot wound just days before the season began, has been an absolute beast all season and will hope to make Fromm uncomfortable and force some mistakes.

The last time we saw an all-SEC National Championship was 2011, when Alabama blew out undefeated LSU. I don't expect the Tide to blow out anybody here; Georgia has the talent and makeup to last with 'Bama all four quarters. The big question will be at QB and on the sidelines. Fromm has been great all season, but he will have to make some big throws to overcome the stifling Alabama defense. Can he do that? Does Kirby Smart have enough tricks up his sleeve to overcome his mentor Nick Saban, who has proven he knows how to win in this big games. I firmly expect a hard-fought, hard-hitting game where points will not come easy. This game has a feel of one that is low-scoring and somewhat "boring". I think things will be close but my pick is Alabama. The Tide looked superb in their semifinal win over Clemson, and are more experienced on this type of stage. I like the Tide to add another National Title to Nick Saban's belt.

Saturday, January 7, 2017

College Football Playoff Championship Prediction 2017

Tim Williams, Alabama
After 365 days, and plenty of exciting games, we are back where it all started back at the beginning of 2016: Alabama and Clemson for the National Title. The two squared off in a thriller last season that was back and forth until the very end. Nick Saban and Alabama used a second-half onside kick to change the momentum of the game and overcome a huge day from Deshaun Watson and the Tigers to claim the title. Now, coming off a blowout victory over Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, Watson and the Tigers are eager for vengeance, in what it is being called "The Rematch".

For the third straight year, Alabama broke in a new quarterback and for the third straight year they won the SEC and made it to the Playoff. True freshman Jalen Hurts understandably had growing pains to begin his career but has grown in confidence as the weeks have gone by. Hurts is a fabulous runner that can open up games, but many still question what he can do with his arm. Only fueling doubters was Hurts' relatively poor showing in the Playoff semifinal over Washington. Even though 'Bama had no troubles rolling past the Huskies, Hurts struggled to do much through the air. Clemson almost certainly will stack the box as much as possible and force the young quarterback to beat them over the top. Hurts does have a plethora of different receiving weapons to help him, which has certainly helped the young quarterback get more comfortable. Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart can break it deep every time they touch the ball, and tight end O.J. Howard had a career day in this game one year ago. That explosiveness and versatility on the perimeter gives new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian plenty to work with and the former USC coach (who takes over for Lane Kiffin, who will now move to Florida Atlantic as their head coach) will be creative with how he spreads the ball around. The Tide also have their usual power-run attack to lean on if they can't do much in the passing game, with Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris waiting in the wings. Scarbrough struggled with fumbles earlier in the year but his punishing rushing has led him to take over the feature back role. He ran all over Washington in the semifinal, but we will have to see how he performs in this one; Clemson is a very good rush defense team and will be prepared to stop him. Harris is far from flashy but can still do plenty of damage. The X-factor on this Tide offense, though might not be Hurts, or Scarbrough or any of the skill positions. It likely will be on the offensive line, where they will have plenty of resistance. Alabama rebuilds on the trenches as good as anyone and studs Cam Robinson and Jonah Williams lead the ground game. They will have to show their abilities in pass blocking, however. Clemson has perhaps the nation's most talented defensive line, which they definitely showed in the Fiesta Bowl. The Tide are so used to dominating the line of scrimmage that this war in the trenches could be an interesting adjustment. If the Tigers manage to get some serious pressure on Hurts, they will have a significant advantage.

Their offense will obviously have to put up points, but the offense is not Alabama's strength, it is their suffocating, big-play defense. The Tide managed to retain a number of important defenders from last year's team (Jonathan Allen, Tim Williams and Eddie Jackson, although he is injured) and have been absolutely scary this season. The group not only gets after the quarterback in ways we haven't seen before, they force turnovers and capitalize off of them as well as anybody in the nation. A ball-hawking back seven that includes Minkah Fitzpatrick, Marlon Humphrey, Ronnie Harrison and a talented group of linebackers has been the key all year long for Alabama. Teams have been able to manage some success at times against the group, but this Alabama defense is the best I've seen at changing the momentum of a game with simply one play. Any number of these defensive backs can pick off a pass, take it back for a big gain and get 'Bama going. Turnovers have been an issue all season long for Watson, and he had two picks in the semifinal. If he makes mistakes, the Tide are going to have a field day defensively. This unit is also extremely motivated after they were shredded by Watson a year ago. The then-true sophomore was on fire in last year's Championship, making big play after big play against a Tide defense that was awfully good as well. Guys like Allen, Williams and linebacker Rueben Foster will also have to step up to ensure that the result is not the same this time around.

While Watson has seemingly take a step back in some ways, the gunslinger is still one of the nation's best players. The junior (who will be playing in a Clemson uniform for the final time in this one) has a huge arm, is dangerous running and is a winner that seems to play better the bigger the stage. Only helping the talented signal-caller is a supporting cast that could be even better than last year's group. Sure-handed Artavis Scott will test Alabama on short and intermediate throws and in the open field, while a healthy Mike Williams is a huge test for this Alabama secondary. Williams missed all of 2015-2016 and didn't play in this game a year ago, but presents so much challenges. At 6'3" with great athleticism the wide out is terrific catching jump balls and is a security blanket for Watson. Against such a talented and aggressive Tide defense, that is awfully important to have. Underrated Hunter Renfrow had a coming-out party in this one last season, hauling in two touchdowns and looking like the best receiver on the field. He will be joined by the explosive Deon Cain and valuable tight end Jordan Leggett to give Watson a ton of weapons to work with. Alabama will not be intimidated by this group of receivers, but this may be the best group they have seen all season long. There is so much talent and experience, and these guys find ways to contribute in different ways. Paired with quality running back Wayne Gallman and the versatile Ray-Ray McCloud, the Tigers can hurt defenses in so many different ways.

A big reason why Clemson is such a tough team to beat is because they are so balanced. That means that they don't rely solely on that big-play offense to win, but also on a defense that only gets better as the years go by. Defensive coordinator Brent Venables is as good as anyone at developing new, young talent and finding different, unique ways to attack offenses. He has been able to grow a fabulous D-Line, headed by veteran Carlos Watkins, end Christian Wilkins and Clelin Farrell, who was the Defensive MVP of the Fiesta Bowl. That talented group will have to step up and contain Hurts and Scarbrough, while also blitzing Alabama in a multitude of ways. Linebacker Ben Boulware is a gritty, disciplined linebacker that will have to also step up and contain the ground attack. Even so, it isn't those players that may have the largest impact on this game for Clemson, it is their defensive backfield. The group was decimated by NFL departures last spring but has been pretty good for much of the year. They have to have a big day in order to stop Hurts and the rest of the Tide offense from gaining momentum. Also key will be tackling in space; Alabama has so many different players that run so hard they can't be stopped with simple arm tackles. Clemson needs to ensure they stop 'Bama from getting into the open field and wreak havoc, something Alabama did too often in this game in '16.

While some of the players may be different, one has to assume the feel of this game is going to be very similar to the 2016 edition. There should be plenty of smashmouth football, and Alabama will likely try to overpower Clemson with their powerful rushing attack early. But, this game could well come down to turnovers and big plays. It is hard to know what type of Clemson we will be getting in that aspect. Can a focused Watson lead the Tigers again to big yardage and plenty of points, or will turnovers doom this team? Can Hurts make enough throws to secure a victory for Alabama? I think this game could be down-to-the-wire much like last season. Both are extremely talented and have enough weapons on both sides of the ball to get the job done. Alabama is trying to put together the first 15-0 season in college football history, while Clemson is looking for a revenge, so motivation will certainly be no question in this one. These teams are so evenly matched, it could come down to the little things or special teams, like it did last season, but I worry about Watson turning the ball over. Alabama's ability to score on the defensive side of the ball so often is the only distinct advantage they have in this one. It may be unexciting to pick this one the way I did last year, but I think 'Bama is the safer pick. They will get one heck of a challenge from the Tigers but Saban is better the bigger the game and has a defense eager to help 'Bama finish the job.
Alabama, 34 Clemson, 31

Sunday, April 3, 2016

2016 NCAA Basketball Championship Prediction

Josh Hart & Kris Jenkins
Three weeks later, and only two teams remain in the 2016 NCAA Basketball Tournament. The No. 1 seed North Carolina Tar Heels have rode their veteran lineup and great depth to five straight victories, while Villanova has been a major surprise, moving past their recent March struggles to reach the Championship Game as well. After an exciting opening weekend, this year's tournament has really been lacking in excitement and close games, highlighted by two blowout Final Four victories. Rest assured, no blowouts will be happening here. These two teams are scorching hot and are about as evenly matched as they come. This is sure to be one exciting battle to decide who is crowned champion of the college basketball world this season.

From top to bottom, there may not be a basketball team in the nation that can match up with North Carolina. It isn't just their stars, but the fact they have a whole double unit that can come in and contribute as well. Off the bench, guys like Isaiah Hicks, gritty Joel James and play-making Theo Pinson play big roles and have had a great couple of games. The starting lineup includes seniors Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson, along with swingman Justin Jackson and massive Kennedy Meeks. Paige has been extremely important to the Tar Heels throughout his time in Chapel Hill, but particularly in their last five games. The senior point guard was struggling mightily from deep entering March but has been absolutely flaming hot since then. Villanova's guards are great defenders, but expect Paige to still be looking for his shot. Down low, Johnson has continued a terrific regular season with a dominant postseason. Johnson has been an absolute beast all year long on the boards, particularly offensive. He has proven to also have a capable mid-range shot and appears to be on a mission to win a Championship as his grand finale with UNC. Jackson provides tremendous athleticism and shooting on the wings, while Meeks has moments where he can dominate down low. The three-headed monster of Meeks, Johnson and Hicks (not to mention James) will be an absolute load for a relatively undersized Villanova team to handle. Don't be surprised if North Carolina pounds it in the paint early and often, particularly if the game comes down to the wire.

The Wildcats have gone on their run behind their talented group of veterans, especially their top two seniors, Daniel Ochefu and Ryan Arcidiacono. Arcidiacono is so hot he has been shooting over 60% from the field this tournament, and is feeling it from deep. The four-year captain is playing in a manner similar to Johnson; dead set on ending his collegiate career with a Championship, and it is clear, with the hustle and heart he plays with. Ochefu has transformed into a dominant low post presence and he will play a huge role against Johnson and Meeks. The Wildcats also possess great versatility throughout their lineup and it will be interesting to see how the Tar Heels' inconsistent defense performs. Kris Jenkins has turned it on this tournament and remains a great shooter and scorer. His strength and power versus Justin Jackson's speed and versatility could be an intriguing battle on the wing. Josh Hart is one of the nation's most underrated players, a guy who always finds ways to score. He has played terrific this tournament and could be a real headache against the Tar Heels' defense. Freshman Jalen Brunson has blessed Villanova with more balance and he works well with Arcidiacono in the backcourt. This whole Villanova team appears radioactive hot, as they hit 71 percent as a team this past Saturday against Oklahoma in a 44-point thumping of the Sooners. Though, it is hard to keep that hot shooting up throughout six games, and their defense, which has also been great, could struggle against the versatility and power of the UNC offense.

Both of these teams seem to be great matches against each other. They have both have veteran point guards, sturdy and versatile big men, and wings can shoot the ball. They bring depth, experience and smarts to the table, along with plenty of motivation for their four-year seniors. North Carolina may the nation's best team, but it will be interesting to see if their backcourt can handle Arcidiacono, Brunson and Hart all on the court together. Plus, this Villanova team is just hotter and playing better at the right time. Oklahoma and Kansas were Final Four teams and Villanova had no problems, and while UNC is beating opponents, they haven't played the same competition (a six in the Elite Eight and a 10 seed in the Final Four) that 'Nova has. This game is sure to be exciting and down to the wire, but in the end Villanova should complete their redemption story.
Villanova by four

Sunday, January 11, 2015

College Football Playoff National Championship Prediction

Marcus Mariota
The inaugural season of the College Football Playoff era has been filled with upsets, exciting finishes and a fair share of controversy. Now, the 2014-2015 season will all culminate this Monday in a matchup of two teams with something left to prove. Oregon has been among the best programs in the sport the last five to ten years but has yet to claim the elusive national title (lost to Cam Newton and Auburn in 2011). On the other side, Ohio State will try to prove the Big Ten is still a conference to be reckoned with and that they truly did deserve a Playoff berth, if beating Alabama did not already prove it to the entire nation.

Oregon, as usual, will bring their high-flying offense to the table, and one that has speed all over the place. The return of stud sophomore back Thomas Tyner now means the Ducks have three legitimately fantastic backs, including Tyner, true freshman Royce Freeman and the veteran of the trio, Byron Marshall. The offensive line, which struggled with injuries throughout the year is now at their healthiest, and it will pave a way for the Ducks' backs. Hroniss Grasu, a steady veteran at center, is finally healthy and Oregon will lean on the senior for leadership and his calming demeanor on this huge stage. At quarterback, Marcus Mariota has been the perfect example of why staying another year in college can be a very good thing. Despite first round projections, Mariota had unfinished business and decided to stay in Eugene another year. He has responded with 3,783 passing yards, 38 touchdowns and a Heisman trophy, and will hope to add a national title to his resume. Mariota's success has been completely different from other recent quarterbacks who have stayed in school an extra season. Matt Barkley at USC, Jake Locker at Washington and Tajh Boyd at Clemson all struggled in their senior seasons and fell down draft boards significantly (Boyd didn't even get drafted). While those quarterbacks struggled, Mariota has seemingly improved in his redshirt junior season. The native Hawaiian has showcased an amazing deep ball, a much better feel for the game and the ability to make big plays in crunch time, something he struggled with his first two years for the Ducks. Having the Heisman winner and a multitude of options at back will certainly fuel Oregon's offense, but they are without a couple key components at receiver. Electric playmaker Devon Allen, who is also a track star at Oregon, is out for the game after injuring his knee in the first play of the Rose Bowl against Florida State. Then, Darren Carrington, who ripped apart that Seminoles' defense in the Rose Bowl, was suspended for the title game. Add to that the longtime absence of explosive Bralon Addison, who tore his ACL during the spring (there was hope he might be able to return for this game) and the Ducks' receiving corps has been decimated. Still, Keanon Lowe is a dangerous weapon through the air, nearly all of Oregon's dynamic backs can catch, and tight end Evan Baylis, who is filling in for another injured Duck, had a strong showing against FSU. Plus, when you have a Heisman winner at quarterback who can do damage with his legs and his arm, you don't need a ton of help from your receivers.

Ohio State has proven time and time again they can also put up points in bunches, even with a third-
Jalin Marshall
stringer at quarterback. Redshirt freshman Cardale Jones, filling in for J.T. Barrett, who filled in for Braxton Miller, has been great in two starts. Despite playing in two huge games, the Big Ten Championship Game and Sugar Bowl, Jones has not let the pressure overwhelm him and he has played extremely well. While still mistake prone, Jones is a big, powerful thrower who has the arm strength to beat defenders over the top and the accuracy to fit the ball into tight windows on short or intermediate throws. Jones is also a dangerous dual threat, and the Oregon defense will have to be disciplined and smart in containing him. At running back, the Buckeyes on sophomore Ezekiel Elliott, who has filled in wonderfully for the graduated Carlos Hyde this season. Elliott has ran for 1,402 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Elliott's speed and shiftiness helped carry him to a 85-yard touchdown against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, which propelled OSU to the victory. The Ducks will have their hands full containing home run threat Devin Smith, a senior who has had a huge second half for Ohio State this season. Smith is an absolute speedster and has nice size, allowing him to make unbelievably tough catches on deep balls. Jones will almost certainly look for the senior deep a couple times early against a Ducks' secondary that is also banged up. Along with Smith, reliable Evan Spencer will almost certainly give Oregon problems as well, along with Jalin Marshall. A redshirt freshman, Marshall might be the most versatile athlete on the field in a game full of absolute studs on both sides of the ball. The receiver can not just do damage as a weapon in the passing game, he can carry the ball, throw the ball (on the depth chart, he is Jones' backup right now) and is an absolute load to handle on special teams. While the Ohio State offensive line did not get much credit this year, it has been superb ever since a disastrous showing earlier in the year against Virginia Tech.

For years, the Oregon offense has gotten all the credit for the Ducks being a constant national title contender. It does make sense, the offense has rewritten the rules for "up-tempo" offenses and has had some incredible athletes pass through the past couple seasons. But, the change of fortunes for the Ducks this year has not been the offense getting any better, it has been all defensively. The defense isn't superb statistically, in fact it allows over 400 yards of offense per game. But, somehow it was 27th in scoring defense and causes turnovers at a dizzying rate, something Florida State knows first hand. The front seven has heard all the talk about the defense being "soft" for too long and has been absolute beastly in 2014-2015. Arik Armstead, a 6'8" monster of a defensive end leads the front seven, along with physical DeForest Buckner and Joe Walker, a major help in run support. Hybrid linebacker Tony Washington has always had the talent to be great but has had major ups and major downs in his collegiate career. A dazzling showing in the Rose Bowl that included recovering Jameis Winston's fumble for a touchdown has convinced me he has fulfilled his vast potential.  The big question for the Ducks' defense will be their secondary, which is without All-American cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who injured his knee leading up to the Rose Bowl. Though, the questions were the same against Florida State and led by Troy Hill and a number of other contributors the Ducks' pass defense shut down the Seminoles best receiver (and one of the best in the nation) Rashad Greene. The secondary once more will have to have a great day but it is worrying going up against a team like the Buckeyes, who spread the field so well. FSU doesn't have the deep threats of OSU and if the Buckeyes can hit some deep throws, they will definitely be in great position.

The Ohio State defense had some major question marks entering the year, especially when they allowed over 300 yards of rushing to Navy in the season opener. But, much like the offense improved, the defense took major steps throughout the course of the year and is strong, especially in the front seven. Defensive end Joey Bosa is among the nation's most intimidating linemen and he has had a huge 2014-2015. After recording a solid 7.5 sacks in his freshman campaign, Bosa has exploded for 14 sacks and 20 tackles for loss, which is seventh best in all of the land. Joining him up front is senior Michael Bennett, who clogs running lanes, and junior Adolphus Washington, a very nimble tackle. The loss of Noah Spence, who has been suspended all season long, seemed to hurt the Buckeyes originally, but Steve Miller has come on down the stretch. He made an absolute wonderful play in the Sugar Bowl to pick off Blake Sims and take it to the house, a key turning point in the game. Add to that Joshua Perry, a linebacker who recorded 112 tackles on the season, along with Darron Lee, who had 66 tackles and six sacks, and Ohio State will almost certainly put up a great fight against the Ducks' fantastic rush offense. The Ohio State secondary was a major question mark entering the year but it has solidified itself as a great unit, much like this defense as a whole. Doran Grant and the rest of the secondary, which includes playmakers Vonn Bell and Eli Apple, held Amari Cooper to his lowest output of the year and if they can contain Lowe and Byron Marshall of Oregon, Mariota will have a tough time getting the ball to any receiver.

This going to be the perfect Championship game for fans of the sports. After years of SEC slugfests in the BCS system, the CFB Playoff has pitted two explosive offenses against each other in a game full of storylines. While it seems obvious to pick the team with the Heisman winner and an extremely motivated defense against a team with a third-stringer at quarterback, the Buckeyes have a real chance to win Urban Meyer's third national championship, and first in Columbus. In normal circumstances, Oregon might well be the more talented team between these two. But, the Ducks are banged up in so many key areas, and the absence of Ekpre-Olomu could be a major problem if Smith continues his hot stretch. Plus, the Buckeyes amount of momentum entering this game could easily propel them to a victory. Sure, Oregon has quite a bit of momentum too, following a 39-point beat down of the defending champion, but Ohio State has been absolutely terrifying under Cardale Jones and I think they can continue it. This one is sure to be a high-scoring affair unless turnovers become a problem (but with Mariota, who has just two interceptions all season, that is doubtful) and an exciting one to the very end. I think the magic of the Buckeyes' late postseason run under Jones can continue, especially considering the injuries and suspensions throughout the Ducks' lineup.
Ohio State, 42 Oregon, 38

Sunday, January 5, 2014

BCS National Championship Prediction

1 Florida State (13-0, 8-0 ACC) vs. 2 Auburn (12-1, 7-1 SEC)

A year of miracles will conclude this Monday night as the undefeated Florida
Karlos Williams
State Seminoles hope to tame Auburn and their dominant rushing attack. The often-criticized BCS will hope to go out with one last hurrah after two straight pretty boring championship games that resulted in two dominant Alabama victories. The Seminoles possess one of the nation's most exciting offenses led by Heisman winner Jameis Winston and junior back Devonta Freenan. Winston threw for 3,820 yards and 38 touchdowns in his first year as starter in Tallahassee, while engineering an offense that averaged over 50 points a game this season. Florida State has a plethora of big play offensive talents like junior receiver Rashad Greene (981 yards) and sophomore Kelvin Benjamin (14 touchdowns, 19.1 yards per catch). They also possess powerful back Karlos Williams who is a bruising runner.

Auburn has rebounded from a stunning fall to 3-9 in 2012 led by a rush offense that was among the best in the nation. First year coach Gus Malzahn used former defensive back, junior Nick Marshall and Heisman finalist Tre Mason to be the main pieces of the offense. Mason, a small and elusive back, ran for 1,621 yards on the year, including 304 yards on 46 attempts in their SEC Championship Game victory over Missouri. The Tigers also have play makers in the passing game in sophomore Sammie Coates, who recorded 841 yards on 38 receptions, averaging 22.2 yards per every reception. Speedy Ricardo Louis was the receiver who helped pull off Auburn's miraculous "Prayer at Jordan-Hare" and should be a factor.

As many fireworks as their offenses put up this year and how many they are likely to put up in this one, defense will be extremely important. People tend to overlook Florida State's defense which only allowed 10.7 points per game this year. The 'Noles have a number of defensive stars, ranging from senior defensive back Lamarcus Joyner to playmaking linebackers Christian Jones and Telvin Smith. Up front, Florida State will hope their defensive line can hang with Auburn's up-tempo offense. They will need some play up the middle from tackles Eddie Goldman and Timmy Jernigan to open up plays for Jones and Smith. Expect the 'Noles to dial up pressure on Auburn; they clearly want Marshall to throw and beat them through the air. Auburn will hope to bring pressure on Winston and the Seminoles as well, led by senior defensive end Dee Ford. Ford is a load to handle as his incredible instincts and great speed off the edge constantly bring double teams which opens up lanes to opponents' backfields. Senior cornerback Chris Davis will probably only always be remembered for the return of Alabama's missed field goal for a touchdown to win the Iron Bowl, but he is a solid defender. He won't pick off passes but he is a key run support defender who moves to the ball well.

Nick Marshall

It will be interesting to see if Florida State can slow down Mason, Marshall and the Tigers' ground game. They will need pressure up the middle and will need to force Marshall to throw as much as possible. Marshall is not a bad passer, but he has yet to prove that he can take over a game with his arm the same way he can with his legs. Auburn should put up points, but them stopping the Seminoles will not be an easy task at all. As good as Auburn has been this year, their defense has been suspect against explosive offenses like Texas A&M, Missouri and LSU. The Tigers may be hoping for another one of their signature last-second plays. Florida State is the better team, they have yet to show any signs of weakness in wins over ACC opponents Clemson, Miami and Duke. But, Alabama, Texas A&M and probably even Missouri were better teams than Auburn on talent alone. Talent alone doesn't win football games. Auburn has been labeled the "Team of Destiny" and for good reason. Last year, I went with the upset pick of Notre Dame over Alabama and I was dead wrong. This year I decided to go with the "safer" pick. There has been no denying how dominant Florida State has been and they should close out a spectacular year against the Tigers.

Florida State, 38 Auburn, 33

The Championship Game by the Numbers
0- The number of single-digit wins that Florida State has recorded this year. Their closest game was a 14 point victory over Boston College.

42.3- Florida State's average margin of victory this year. 

9- Win improvement in just one year for Auburn entering this game. They went from 3-9 to 12-1 and improved from an 0-8 conference mark to 7-1 inside the SEC.

71%- How often Auburn runs the ball. Rushing the ball 71 percent of the time is the highest amount of any non-triple-option offenses such as Navy, Air Force or Georgia Tech.