College Football Playoff National Championship Prediction 2023-24

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Monday night's National Championship Game will bring a sense of finality in more ways than one - not only will it conclude the 2023 college football season, it will be the final year a National Champion is determined from a four-team Playoff field, the last time Michigan & Washington face off before they become Big Ten foes (at least for the foreseeable future) and the final run for some of the sport's stars, such as Michael Penix, Blake Corum, and more. If that wasn't enough reason to tune in, the game will feature a fascinating clash of styles between the hard-nosed Wolverines and a fun-to-watch Huskies team that will throw the ball all over the field. Needless to say, the 2023 season should cap off in epic fashion between a pair of teams that deserve to be in the spotlight.

Michigan may enter as the slight favorite, but it's hard to deny that the Huskies feature the best player on the field in Michael Penix. After a record-setting season, Penix built on it with the most dominant quarterback performance in a Playoff game we've seen since Joe Burrow in 2019. He was throwing absolute lasers all over the field against a quality Texas defense, finishing with 430 yards of passing. Now, he gets his greatest test of the 2023 campaign in this Wolverine defense, which is led by an experienced and well-coached secondary. Michigan is just not a pass defense that's going to break down very often - they have elite defenders at every level and play an exceptionally disciplined brand of football. With that being said, Michigan has yet to face a vertical passing offense quite like Washington's. Even against some of the better opponents on their schedule, the Wolverines have faced teams that occasionally struggle to get the ball down the field through the air - that just isn't the case with Penix and his collection of receivers, including Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan. The chess match between Penix and this Michigan secondary will not only be a deciding factor, it's one of the best pure matchups we've seen on the year. Yet, Washington will still need their ground game to give their offense a semblance of balance, and the injury to Dillon Johnson in the semifinal is cause for concern. Johnson has been the unsung hero for Washington down the stretch, but left the Sugar Bowl early and has been limited in practice all week. It sounds like Johnson should play, but he'll be far from 100 percent, which could have an outsized impact in this one. For as dominant as Washington's pass offense is, Johnson plays such a key role in situational and short yardage moments - not having him fully healthy is the type of disadvantage that can swing even matchups such as this one. 

It should be a fascinating battle the other way, too, as a ground-and-pound Michigan offense will look to show what they can do against this Husky defense. The Wolverines aren't going to lean on the big play as much as Washington, but that's worked out just fine for them on the year. They play a much more methodical brand of football, on that might not be quite as exciting but is very effective. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy responded to his detractors with a stellar showing in the Rose Bowl win, and now looks to keep the momentum alive against a susceptible Washington secondary. Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson remain the top weapons on the perimeter, but I'm curious to see how ultra-versatile Semaj Morgan responds after a poor showing in the semifinal win. Morgan gives this Wolverine offense a dynamic that has been missing in recent years, but he'll have to prove he's ready for this stage. On the ground, Michigan is going to lean on their ground game until Washington proves they can consistently stop it, which means we are going to see a heavy dosage of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards in this one. Those two operate behind a Michigan O-Line not quite at full strength, with Zak Zinter on the sidelines still after his horrific injury in the Ohio State game, but still playing excellent football. That battle in the trenches between Michigan and this Husky defensive front should be a good one - Washington may not have elite defensive numbers, but they've stepped up when needed and feature a front seven that should be able to put up a fight against the Wolverines. In particular, Bralen Trice, who is likely to be hearing his name called in the first round of the NFL Draft come this spring, was dominant in the semifinal and will look to create the chaos necessary to disrupt this Michigan offense.

There's plenty to like about this National Championship Game matchup, from the matchups on the field to the feelings of freshness from seeing two programs at this stage that haven't played for a National Title in some time. It also feels different than what we saw last year - we should have a competitive game that will likely be decided deep into the second half. I don't think you can go wrong picking either one of these teams based on what they've done this year and how they match up, but after four months of football, I remain steadfast in my belief that my preseason National Title pick Michigan is going to finish the job. This is the most well-rounded team in the country and for all the distractions off-the-field, the team has looked focused and hungry all season long. It feels like Michigan has been building to this eventual goal for some time now, and even though Washington is a worthy foe, I expect them to finish the job come Monday night.

The Pick: Michigan, 35 Washington, 31

College Football Playoff Picks 2023-24: Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl

Rome Odunze, Washington

Rose Bowl: (#4) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. (#1) Michigan Wolverines

Line: Michigan -1.5

O/U: 44.5

For as strange of an offseason as it has been off the field for Michigan, the Wolverines enter this year's College Football Playoff a perfect 13-0, fresh off their third consecutive Big Ten Title. The program has to feel as though they have something to prove after a pair of short-lived Playoff appearances, and now get an opportunity against Nick Saban and the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama's controversial inclusion in the Playoff aside, the door is open for Saban to claim his seventh National Title with the Tide, this time as the "underdog" in the four-team field.

In a sport increasingly defined by elite quarterbacks and wide receivers, Michigan feels like a bit of a throwback to a different era in college football. That's not to take anything away from J.J. McCarthy, who has had an impressive year, but this Wolverine team is predicated on a power-run attack behind a physical offensive line, with an elite defense going the other way. Blake Corum is fully healthy this time around and will join up with Donovan Edwards to give Alabama's rush defense their toughest challenge of the 2023 campaign. On the outside, the Wolverines don't feature a superstar, but Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson provide plenty of explosiveness, while tight ends Colston Loveland and A.J. Barner operate underneath. They should be an interesting test for an Alabama secondary that has several future NFL pieces, most notably the likely first CB off the board this spring in Kool-Aid McKinstry, but has experienced plenty of ups-and-downs. The Tide defense does seem to be playing their best ball at the right time, and I expect them to come out aggressively - this game could end up coming down to the chess match at the line of scrimmage between the Alabama front and Michigan O-Line. The Wolverines have been great up front, but Dallas Turner and company will be fired up and ready to go. It feels like this Tide defense is going to see whether McCarthy has the tools to beat them, a guy who has something to prove himself after several key turnovers in last year's loss to TCU. McCarthy has played big at the most important moments of the 2023 season, but is he ready for this type of stage against this Tide defense? This is the type of game where a quarterback can step up and become a forever campus legend - just ask Stetson Bennett.

We've become accustomed to such dominant Alabama teams that this year's 12-1 finish and SEC Title doesn't feel altogether very special. But, the reality is that this is probably Saban's best coaching job since he's taken over in Tuscaloosa, keeping the Tide on track after a rough September and seemingly getting better each and every week. Quarterback Jalen Milroe has had a turbulent season, but the dual threat has been tremendous over the last two months of the season, and gives this Tide offense an element they haven't had in the past with his legs. Milroe is still prone to the turnover or mistake, which is a concern against an opportunistic Michigan defense, but he has the ability to open up games in a way this Wolverine defense hasn't seen much of on the year. What's even more amazing about Milroe is that he's kept the Tide offense firing even though his supporting cast has felt very un-Alabamaesque, with Jermaine Burton on the perimeter and Roydell Williams and Jase McClellan out of the backfield. Burton has evolved into the big-play threat this team needs, but I am curious if another Tide pass-catcher will step up - Isaiah Bond is the obvious candidate, but both face down a stifling Wolverine secondary. Much like the matchup the other way, the action at the line of scrimmage is also going to play an outsized role. The Tide offensive line has improved drastically after a rough start to the season, but they still face quite the challenge in this one. The Wolverines don't have just one elite pass rusher this season, but they're deep and experienced, the type of defensive front that is going to play well deep into this contest. It feels like whichever group comes out with more energy and an edge in the physicality contest is going to put their team in position to come out on top.

For all the frustration from Florida State fans over their team being left out of the four-team field, all of which I believe to be valid, what a semifinal matchup this one is going to turn out to be. Two of the sport's most recognizable brands, two elite head coaches, and two tremendous football teams set to battle it out in college football's best venue ... what more could you ask for? It should be a good game, too, with neither side having a clear advantage either direction. Michigan was my preseason National Title pick so it feels only right for me to stick with them to conquer the Tide and set the program up for their first in over two decades.

The Pick: Michigan, 31 Alabama, 28

Sugar Bowl: (#3) Texas Longhorns vs. (#2) Washington Huskies

Line: Texas -4

O/U: 64.5

Not since an unfortunate injury to Colt McCoy in the 2009 National Championship Game have we seen a Texas team this close to hoisting a National Title, but standing in their way is the undefeated Washington Huskies and Heisman winner Michael Penix. As opposed to the Rose Bowl, which has the looks of a physical, grind of a football game, the Sugar Bowl has all the makings of a fun, high-scoring affair between two programs looking to prove themselves on one of the sport's biggest stages.

The transfer portal has become somewhat of a boogeyman in the world of modern college football, but it's always a great story to see a situation where it worked out to perfection, as is the case with Penix and Washington. After several injury-plagued seasons at Indiana, Penix connected with his old play-caller Kalen DeBoer, now the head man at UW, and has put together a pair of record-setting seasons. That includes a 2023 campaign in which he has eclipsed 4,000 yards and 36 total touchdowns, while helping Washington to a perfect 13-0. It's not just the fact this Washington offense puts up gaudy stats, it's a genuinely fun team to watch every time they take the field. Penix has unlimited arm strength, and is flanked by arguably the nation's top receiver corps, including Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan, and Germie Bernard. DeBoer and coordinator Ryan Grubb are masterminds at finding a way to get their playmakers open, and Penix has showed up each and every week. Then there's the unsung heroes of the offense, the O-Line and tailback Dillon Johnson, who provide just enough balance to keep defenses honest. Johnson quietly surpassed the 1,000-yard mark on the year and has been instrumental in Washington's success down the stretch, while the Husky offensive line won the Joe Moore Award as the nation's best. All in all, it's quite the challenge for a Texas defense that has been significantly improved all year, but still is prone to occasional lapses. Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski did come from Washington and may have a few tricks up his sleeve, but what DeBoer and staff have been running is far different from what Kwiatkowski saw under Chris Petersen just a few years ago. The Huskies are going to attack down the field and if this Longhorn defense isn't ready, this one could quickly devolve into a shootout.

Even with several important injuries, the Texas offense keeps on rolling, coming off a Big 12 Championship Game in which they dropped 49 points. Quarterback Quinn Ewers missed several weeks but appears close to 100 percent and should be ready to go. He's still a bit streaky, but there are few quarterbacks in the nation as impressive as the redshirt sophomore when he's on his "A" game - simply go back and watch the tape from the Alabama win. Ewers has plenty of help as well, with Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell on the outside and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders creating matchup problems underneath. With that being said, I am curious whether the Longhorns will be able to maintain the offensive balance that this has defined this unit in 2023 as they prepare for another game without Jonathon Brooks. Brooks was having a dominant year before a torn ACL in early November and although the Longhorns have managed well without him, these are the types of games where he would make all the difference. C.J. Baxter and Jaydon Blue have been impressive in relief, but it still feels like this unit isn't at complete full strength, which is a problem when you consider who they're facing the other way. With that being said, they should be able to still move the ball against a Washington defense that has been leaky at times this season, although they are coming off a strong showing in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Huskies did a great job disrupting the rhythm of Bo Nix in that one, and they should be able to draw up something creative to do the same against Ewers.

I've been skeptical about both of these teams at different points throughout the season and yet here they are, playing for a chance at a National Championship Game berth. Washington in particular has left quite the impression on me - they've had off weeks and tough matchups, yet have answered the call at every point on the year. Instead of slowing down, they seem to be getting even stronger at the right time, and I think this is the opportunity to show out against a fantastic Texas team. I like them to move on, setting up a National Championship Game featuring two future Big Ten foes for all the marbles.

The Pick: Washington, 41 Texas, 31

College Football Picks 2023: Week Fourteen (Championship Week)

Michael Penix, Washington 

Current Picks Record: 77-31

Upsets: 7-5

Superdogs: 7-5

Locks: 9-3

Pac-12 Championship Game: (#5) Oregon Ducks @ (#3) Washington Huskies

Line: Oregon -9.5

O/U: 65.5

For so long, the Pac-12 was the butt of the joke when it came to the Power Five conferences. It's TV network was a mess, they couldn't get a team in the College Football Playoff, and it became synonymous with late-night chaos. As we prepare for the final Pac-12 Championship Game ever, at least in its current state, things have changed in a big way. Oregon and Washington are playing in what is essentially a Playoff quarterfinal game, with a Heisman Trophy potentially on the line. How can you not be romantic about college football?

If you love points, this is the game for you, as they will be coming early and often on Friday night. Oregon boasts their own Heisman frontrunner, quarterback Bo Nix, who engineers a balanced, efficient group that can attack defenses in a variety of ways. Nix isn't afraid to take shots deep, but his ability to extend plays with his legs requires defenses to often use a spy to slow him down. That leaves more space for the other skill position players to factor in, including wide outs Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson. Both have been dominant all season long, and should have a field day against a Washington secondary that has not only struggled most of the year, but had difficulties containing this offense in their previous matchup. If that wasn't enough, Oregon is able to hit you with the two-headed monster of Bucky Irving and Jordan James out of the backfield, running behind an experienced, ferocious offensive line. Irving and James are excellent complements to each other - Irving's shiftiness and big play ability is a joy to watch, while James brings the thunder. The Huskies are a better rush defense than pass, but finding a way to contain those two, along with Nix, is going to be a tough challenge.

Washington will counter with their own Heisman frontrunner, Michael Penix, who out-dueled Bo Nix in this game earlier in the fall. Penix has slowed down slightly in the season's second half, but still boasts a rocket arm and is helped out by an impressive receiver corps. Biletnikoff finalist Rome Odunze is the headliner, but Jalen McMillan, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Germie Bernard can all get in on the action. Washington will look to take plenty of shots with the nation's second best passing offense, especially as they go up against a Duck secondary that has been susceptible through the air, but Dillon Johnson's contributions on the ground should not be overlooked. The former Mississippi State transfer gives this offense some semblance of balance, forcing defenses to give this ground game a second thought, which should not be overlooked. He hit the century mark against Oregon earlier in the year and should give this Duck defense reason to still load the box, especially as they battle against a quality Washington offensive line.

Washington and Oregon's battle earlier in the fall was one of the best games of the season so far, and I think the encore has a chance to be even better. The stakes are higher, the game's in Las Vegas, and both teams are playing tremendous football. I picked the Ducks earlier on and was proven incorrect, but I'm going back and rolling with them again to take home the Pac-12 crown. I'd argue they outplayed Washington in the first matchup and I believe top-to-bottom this is one of the best teams in college football - they'll get the job done Friday night and make their second Playoff berth in school history.

The Pick: Oregon, 38 Washington, 30

SEC Championship Game: (#1) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#8) Alabama Crimson Tide

Line: Georgia -5.5

O/U: 49.5

Georgia's quest for a three-point remains in focus, but standing in their way is a familiar foe: the Alabama Crimson Tide. After a shaky start to the season, Nick Saban has his team playing greta football, and looking to sneak into the College Football Playoff with an upset win in Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Georgia's offensive makeover has been one of the most intriguing storylines of the 2023 season. An offense that was known for it's ground-and-pound nature has leaned heavily on a vertical passing attack, with Carson Beck putting together an impressive campaign as first-year starter. The junior has nearly 3,500 yards of passing and leads the nation's eighth-best pass offense, a remarkable feat when you consider tight end Brock Bowers has missed a big chunk of the regular season. Bowers appears to be working his way back to 100 percent at the right time, while others in the Bulldog passing game have stepped up, most notably Ladd McConkey, although he's a bit beaten up himself heading into the home stretch. This trio will look to be aggressive against an Alabama secondary that features a star corner, Kool-Aid McKinstry, and rising star safety in Caleb Downs, but has still been frightfully inconsistent. The secondary does seem to have found its footing after a rough start, much like the rest of this roster, but it's fair to have concerns about how they'll look against a dynamic passing attack. And then, the Bulldogs can still hit you underneath with a power run game, led by Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton. Yet, the matchup I'm most curious about has to be the battle in the trenches, featuring a whole list of future NFL contributors. The Georgia O-Line doesn't quite have as much talent as we've seen in year's past, but remains a fearsome group - how will they fare against the combo of Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell off the edge?

Life after Bryce Young has been turbulent at times for the Alabama offense, but they've certainly found their stride at this point in the year. Quarterback Jalen Milroe has seemingly gotten better each and every week, and enters the Championship Game playing some of his best football yet. He's always a threat to run, and his huge arm gives this Tide offense real bite, but they still have to live with some of the questionable decisions that come along with it. It hasn't been as much of a problem as of late, but facing a Georgia secondary loaded with talent? You do wonder if it's a major turnover that ends up swinging the tide - no pun intended - in the favor of the Georgia Bulldogs. The rest of the Alabama supporting cast isn't quite as dynamic as what we've come to know under Saban, but there are enough quality pieces to get the job done. Roydell Williams and Jase McClellan provide a nice punch at running back, while the receiver corps adds enough explosiveness to complement Milroe and company. But much like Georgia's offense, it's the blockers I'm watching here. The Tide have shown tremendous growth up front, but things remain a work in progress, and they face a relentless Bulldog defensive front.

Georgia has found a way to outclass Alabama in their last two meetings, and they're the better team this fall. But, you can never be too sure with Saban and the Crimson Tide - they're going to test Kirby Smart for the entire four quarters, and it wouldn't shock me if they found a way to squeak this one out. I'm still rolling with the Bulldogs, but this one feels like it could be in coin flip territory.

The Pick: Georgia, 31 Alabama, 27

Big Ten Championship Game: (#2) Michigan Wolverines @ (#16) Iowa Hawkeyes

Line: Michigan -22

O/U: 34.5

With USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington all set to join the Big Ten next fall, it's officially the final year of the East-West Championship Game format. And, what a way to go out - with Michigan battling Iowa in a game where they very well could be more defensive points scored than offensive. The Wolverines are hoping for their third straight Big Ten Title and another trip to the CFB Playoff, while Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes are just fine playing spoilers on Saturday night.

Michigan's offense doesn't jump out at you statistically, but this has been a remarkably consistent and efficient group throughout the entire fall. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy provides a stabilizing force under center, an efficient signal-caller who can create plays with his legs as necessary. He's joined by the combination of Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum out of the backfield, the nation's premier backfield duo, as well as a solid, reliable receiver corps. Edwards and Corum have been the focal point of the Wolverine offense all season, but it will be interesting to see if they choose to attack down the field more consistently in this one. I thought that may be the case against Ohio State, but that didn't turn out to be the case - against Iowa, things may be different. The Hawkeyes feature an elite defensive front, one that has its usual collection of future NFL players. They are still strong on the back-end, but the season-ending injury to Cooper DeJean robs them of their chief playmaker. 

Years from now, we are going to look back at this Iowa offense and marvel that this football team ended up winning ten regular season football games. This unit has set new records for just how inept it has been and yet, the Hawkeyes have still found a way to come out on top most Saturdays. Will that be the case in this one? They are going to need something, anything, from quarterback Deacon Hill, who replaced an injured Cade McNamara mid-season. Hill's numbers are hideous - a 48% completion rate and 5-6 TD-INT ratio - but the Hawkeyes don't exactly ask for much from their quarterback. As long as he's able to take care of the ball and make the occasional play downfield, Iowa still has a chance to pull off the upset. The ground game will be the main source of offense once again, but even here, there's a lack of explosiveness. Leshun Williams finished as their leading rusher, with 779 yards, but with defenses stacking the box at every opportunity, he struggled to create big plays. That's just a reality of the Iowa offense this season - they are going to have to find a way to manufacture yards. Unfortunately, that's not exactly an easy task against a Michigan defense that has been shutdown all year, ranking first in the nation with 10.3 points allowed per game.

Few things would be quite as hilarious as watching this particular Iowa somehow find a way to win a Big Ten Title, but I just don't see it happening. Even if their defense and special teams provides a boost, the offense is so inept that it will be hard to match whatever Michigan does. As long as the Wolverines do just enough, they should ride into the College Football Playoff with a perfect record.

The Pick: Michigan, 17 Iowa, 7

Other Picks

Conference USA Championship: New Mexico State Aggies @ (#24) Liberty Flames -- What a story New Mexico State has been this fall, but the undefeated Flames are just a better football team top-to-bottom.

The Pick: Liberty, 28 New Mexico State, 21

Big 12 Championship: (#18) Oklahoma State Cowboys @ (#7) Texas Longhorns -- Texas still has Playoff hopes that are very much alive, and they could actually be helped out in a big way by an Alabama upset. But first, they much finish business themselves - which seems likely against an inconsistent Cowboy team.

The Pick: Texas, 34 Oklahoma State, 21

MAC Championship: Miami (Ohio) Redhawks @ Toledo Rockets -- Toledo head coach Jason Candle has flirted with several Power Five openings, but has stayed put. Perhaps that should ensure his team is focused for Ford Field this Saturday.

The Pick: Toledo, 27 Miami, 24

Mountain West Championship: Boise State Broncos @ UNLV Rebels -- If you haven't gotten a chance to tune into UNLV this fall, this is your chance. They run a thrilling offense, and are on the cusp of their first 10-win season in program history.

The Pick: UNLV, 37 Boise State, 24

American Athletic Championship: SMU Mustangs @ (#22) Tulane Green Wave -- Before the season-ending injury to quarterback Preston Stone, I was leaning towards picking SMU in this one. But without their star quarterback, the Mustangs come up short against Tulane, who is likely to clinch a New Year's Six Bowl berth.

The Pick: Tulane, 35 SMU, 31

Sun Belt Championship: Appalachian State Mountaineers @ Troy Trojans -- After a 1-2 start, the Troy Trojans have quietly ripped off nine straight victories - their defense should ensure it's ten this Saturday.

The Pick: Troy, 24 Appalachian State, 17

ACC Championship: (#14) Louisville Cardinals @ (#4) Florida State Seminoles -- The Jordan Travis injury has thrown a wrench into Florida State's National Title hopes, but this is the far more talented team. They should find a way to still come out on top against the upstart Cardinals.

The Pick: Florida State, 28 Louisville, 21

College Football Picks 2023: Week Thirteen

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Current Picks Record: 69-30

Upsets: 7-4

Superdogs: 6-5

Locks: 8-3

(#2) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#3) Michigan Wolverines

Line: Michigan -3

O/U: 46.5

It all comes down to this. Michigan and Ohio State have been on a collision course all season long, and now both teams are set to square off. It looks like the biggest game we've seen of 2023 - two teams with perfect records, a Big Ten East Title on the line, and likely College Football Playoff hopes hanging in the balance. Who will leave Saturday with their undefeated mark still intact?

Kyle McCord was tasked with the unenviable job of taking over for one of the most decorated passers in Ohio State history and naturally, there have been growing pains. But, the junior seems to be playing his best football as of late, albeit against some of the weaker defenses on the Buckeye schedule. It isn't surprising that McCord has needed time to adjust to his new starting job, particularly with the Buckeyes also breaking in a first-year offensive coordinator in Brian Hartline, but this weekend will tell us a lot about the young quarterback. At times, he's seen hesitant and a bit overwhelmed by the big stage - well, it doesn't get much bigger than "The Game" between two Top 5 teams. It would help if the Ohio State ground game could take a bit of pressure off McCord, but that just hasn't consistently been the case this year. TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams have both battled injuries all year long and although they appear to be on the mend, they face a physical Michigan defensive front, a group that has held OSU in check the last two seasons. On the perimeter, the Ohio State offense is also looking for more consistency beyond Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison Jr. has been as good as any Buckeye fan could have hoped, but the injury bug hitting Emeka Egbuka has negatively impacted this group. Egbuka does appear to be good to go, and tight end Cade Stover has stepped up in a major way as needed, but this isn't the best group of Ohio State pass-catchers we've seen in recent years. They're in for a battle against these Wolverine defensive backs, a chess match that could very well decide this one.

It's been fascinating to watch Ohio State's transition into a defense-first team this fall. Coordinator Jim Knowles has truly done a tremendous job in his two seasons running this defense, and the group is allowing just over nine points per game on the year, one of the best marks in the entire country. But, now comes the ultimate test - a meeting with J.J. McCarthy and the Michigan offense. McCarthy has remained a fixture in the Heisman conversation all season despite rather pedestrian numbers, at least in comparison to many of the other top quarterbacks in the race. Instead, McCarthy has gained national respect for his crisp control running this offense, making smart decisions, and moving the chains. He should be eager to show what he can do on the big stage after a pair of quiet weeks, in which he totaled just 201 passing yards total. Those numbers have mainly been a result of Michigan's elite ground attack, which has removed the need for McCarthy to throw down the field very often. But, this Buckeye defense is going to give them a test, and he's going to need to do more than hand the ball off 40-plus times to the likes of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. That also puts pressure on a Wolverine receiver corps that doesn't have a Harrison Jr., but instead has leaned on steady play from the likes of Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson. Perhaps ultra-versatile Semaj Morgan could provide the additional spark this Wolverine offense could need to get over the top. 

This may be a matchup of Top 5 teams, but it's likely not going to be a pretty one. The forecast indicates it's going to be a cold, and potentially wet one, and the game will feature two good, but not great, offenses going up against a pair of elite defenses. I think that type of environment favors Michigan, especially when you consider the game will be in Ann Arbor. This has looked like the more complete team top-to-bottom, and even without Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines, I'm picking them to win their third straight in the series.

The Pick: Michigan, 27 Ohio State, 21

(#16) Oregon State Beavers @ (#6) Oregon Ducks

Line: Oregon -14

O/U: 62.5

It's the final installment of the rivalry once known as The Civil War, at least with the two programs in the same conference. But if that wasn't enough to pique your interest, consider that this is a rivalry game with significant implications. Oregon's College Football Playoff hopes are still very much alive, while the Beavers are not only trying to play spoiler, but also still has a chance to reach the ten-win plateau for the second straight season.

D.J. Uiagalelei has given the Beaver offense a passing threat that they didn't have far too often in 2022, as the former Clemson transfer has notched 2,418 yards and 20 touchdowns on the year. Yet, it's still all about the ground game when it comes to the Oregon State offense, with superstar tailback Damien Martinez leading the charge. The sophomore has not only eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark, he's averaging over six yards per carry, a remarkable number when you consider how much usage he gets. He's helped by veteran Deshaun Fenwick, a change-of-pace that gives the Beavers much-needed explosiveness out of the backfield. Those two will be featured heavily, but it does feel like Oregon State may alter their game-plan slightly, considering the opponent. The Ducks retain a clear advantage in the trenches and up front, but we've seen the secondary struggle at times this fall. That doesn't mean Uiagalelei is going to step back and throw 50 times, but don't be surprised if the Beavers are a bit more aggressive than we've seen them in the past, even on the road.

The Oregon State defense poses an interesting challenge for Bo Nix and company as they look ahead to the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Beavers aren't the most talented team in the Pac-12 on this side of the ball, but are well-coached and fundamentally sound. They're also physical at all three levels, and should mix and match packages in an effort to slow down Nix and the Oregon supporting cast. That's easier said than done, however, as Nix has been on fire all season long and has plenty of weapons to help him. Bucky Irving and Jordan James are a two-headed monster out of the backfield, both with varying strengths, while Troy Franklin is a Biletnikoff Award contender, reeling in 68 catches for 1,221 yards on the year. There's also Tez Johnson, Nix's half-brother, a dynamic option on the perimeter that can line up just about anywhere. I don't doubt this group is going to be able to move the ball, but I'm particularly curious about the offensive line. It's been tremendous throughout the fall, but Oregon State is a challenge, and if the Ducks can reach the Playoff, this is unit that decides just how far they go.

This is one of those rivalries where you can truly throw out the records - any team can win at any time. That's particularly true this season as we look at two teams ranked in the Top 16 nationally, both with goals of their own. I've been impressed with Oregon State all season, but it's going to be a tough ask to go into Eugene and come away with a victory. I also wonder about the Jonathan Smith factor, after rumors surfaced this week about potential mutual interest between him and Michigan State. It could be more smoke than fire, but you never know how that's going to impact a game this late in the season.

The Pick: Oregon, 38 Oregon State, 28

(#8) Alabama Crimson Tide @ Auburn Tigers

Line: Alabama -10.5

O/U: 48.5

For all the narratives that the Alabama dynasty was crumbling over the first month of 2023, the Tide have rolled into the final week of the regular season in pretty good position to get back to the College Football Playoff. They have one of the best losses anywhere in the country in Texas, have built a solid resume with Tennessee, LSU, and Ole Miss, and have a chance to add to it by beating Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. But first, they must get past Auburn in the Iron Bowl, a 6-5 team looking to play spoiler in their final game of the regular season.

Jalen Milroe's growth as Alabama quarterback has been one of the most fascinating aspects of the 2023 college football season. The sophomore has went through growing pains, but seems to be getting more confident each and every week and in turn, the Tide offense continues to improve. That doesn't mean Milroe is perfect - he'll mix in a few wild throws every once in awhile, but his legs give this Alabama offense an element they've missed at times during the Nick Saban era. The supporting cast also appears to be hitting its stride, with Roydell Williams and Jase McClellan providing a solid 1-2 punch out of the backfield, and Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond out wide. It's certainly not the most imposing group of skill position players Saban and staff have put out on the field, but it's been able to get the job done, and should match up nicely against this Auburn defense. With that being said, the X-factor remains the offensive line, which has been very un-Alabama like in 2023. The group appears to be playing better, but Auburn has enough athletes to throw at you to make things interesting. If anything, it will be an important game for the Tide offensive line to develop confidence and get into a rhythm before the real test, which is Georgia.

Part of the reason Hugh Freeze was brought in as head coach by Auburn is because of the explosive offenses he helped engineer during his stint at Liberty. Unfortunately, those explosive offenses haven't quite shown up in Year One on The Plains, as the Tigers 27.5 PPG total is 69th in the country. Although if there has been a bright spot, it's been an effective rushing attack that is Top 25 nationally, headlined by Jarquez Hunter. The Tigers will certainly look to establish the run game early on, but this is a bad matchup for them. Their offensive line, whose bad play effectively sunk the Bryan Harsin tenure (among other things), remains among the worst in the SEC, and they face an Alabama front loaded with future NFLers. The reality is that the Tigers are going to need something from their passing game if they are to spring an upset, a worrying need from an aerial attack that is among the worst in FBS ball. Payton Thorne's regression over the last two years has been a baffling watch after he tossed for 3,240 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2021 at Michigan State. Sure, Thorne was always a boom-or-bust passer, prone to the turnover as often as the big play, but there has been something missing this year at Auburn. That might be the lack of a true alpha on the perimeter, with tight end Rivaldo Fairweather as the team's top pass-catcher. Alabama's secondary certainly is not invincible, as we saw in the Texas defeat, but the script to beat them isn't easy, either. I'm not entirely sure this is an offense that can take advantage, even if there's some Iron Bowl magic thrown into the mix here.

You never know with these types of rivalry games, but it's difficult to find a reason to pick Auburn in an upset. This program may always be a thorn in the side of Nick Saban, but Freeze's first team doesn't look up to snuff, fresh off a shocking loss to New Mexico State. Even if they are able to hang with Alabama deep into the second half, I think the mighty Tide will keep on rolling into the SEC Championship Game.

The Pick: Alabama, 35 Auburn, 17

Other Picks

(#5) Florida State Seminoles @ Florida Gators -- This game got a lot more interesting due to unfortunate injuries to both starting quarterbacks. Yet, even with Tate Rodemaker under center, the Seminoles are still the better team top-to-bottom.

The Pick: Florida State, 24 Florida, 17

(#24) Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks -- It's been a less-than-ideal fall at Clemson, but the Tigers appear to have turned a corner. Their elite defensive front should terrorize a South Carolina O-Line that has been atrocious the entire year.

The Pick: Clemson, 31 South Carolina, 20

Wisconsin Badgers @ Minnesota Golden Gophers -- It hasn't been a banner year for either of these programs, but there's still plenty to play for in this ever-important rivalry. As much as I'd like to pick my Gophers, the continued absence of Darius Taylor and a surprisingly porous defense makes the Badgers the right pick.

The Pick: Wisconsin, 20 Minnesota, 14

Upset: (#17) Iowa Hawkeyes @ Nebraska Cornhuskers -- With the Hawkeyes officially in the Big Ten Championship Game, it wouldn't be shocking if they get caught looking ahead. Matt Rhule has had a strong debut campaign, and this would be the icing on the cake.

The Pick: Nebraska, 21 Iowa, 13

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Colorado Buffaloes (+21.5) @ Utah Utes -- Things have gone south for Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes, but Utah hasn't been playing at full strength all season and could struggle to defend a vertical Colorado passing game. 

The Pick: Utah, 34 Colorado, 20

Lock of the Week: Kansas Jayhawks (-7) @ Cincinnati Bearcats -- Two straight losses has knocked Kansas down a peg, but this is still a good football team, and Cincinnati is one of the worst Power Five teams in the nation.

The Pick: Kansas, 35 Cincinnati, 21

College Football Picks 2023: Week Eleven

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Current Picks Record: 61-29

Upsets: 6-4

Superdogs: 6-4

Locks: 7-3

(#3) Michigan Wolverines @ (#10) Penn State Nittany Lions

Line: Michigan -4.5

O/U: 44.5

For all the controversy surrounding Michigan off-the-field, Jim Harbaugh's team remains in the driver's seat in the Big Ten. Sure, Ohio State may hold the top spot in the CFB Playoff rankings, but the Wolverines have looked like the better team, albeit against a much softer schedule. That changes this weekend, as Michigan faces what is truly their first significant test of the fall: a road trip to Happy Valley. At 8-1, Penn State has proven they are so much more than a third wheel to OSU and Michigan in the East, but can James Franklin finally topple a top team on the national stage?

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy might not have the gaudy stats of the West Coast quarterbacks, but remains in the thick of the Heisman race, coming in fourth on the current odds at this point in the season. It's a testament to how in control the signal-caller has been, leading an efficient and consistent Wolverine offense. Of course, it helps that he's supported by an elite offensive line, and one of the nation's top running back duos to take some pressure off him, in Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. But, the Penn State defense offers a different test than these Wolverines have seen so far this fall. This is one of the best defensive fronts anywhere in the county, a group stocked to the brim with NFL talent. Not only are rushing lanes going to be hard to come by, Manny Diaz is going to be drawing up relentless pressure. Does that mean we will see McCarthy take more shots down the field in an effort to open things up? So far, the Michigan passing game has lived and died by the underneath stuff, primarily because it hasn't been necessary to do anything more. I suspect that won't be the case in this one, but even trying to throw agains the Nittany Lions is easier said than done; corner Kalen King leads one of the top secondaries in college football.

Speaking of elite running back duos, Penn State features their own in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. The pair has essentially split feature back duties right down the middle (Allen with 119 carries, Singleton with 121) and although the big plays haven't quite been there this year as they were in 2022, they've been awfully productive. There's little doubt Penn State will look to establish the run early and often, but that wasn't the issue in the Ohio State loss, it was the complete ineptitude of their passing attack. Sophomore QB Drew Allar is still experiencing growing pains and despite plenty of bright spots, this is going to be a tough matchup for him. Michigan is the type of physical, disciplined defense that makes offenses fight for every yard, and they excel on third down. That's bad news for an offense that went a staggering 1-16 on third downs against the Buckeyes last month. I'll be interested if there's any change in strategy from James Franklin and OC Mike Yurcich. Do they look to incorporate more gadget or screen plays in an effort to manufacture yardage? To be fair to Allar, it's not just his fault either that the passing game has lagged at times. This may be the worst receiver group of Franklin's entire tenure - beyond KeAndre Lambert-Smith, there's nobody that can get consistently open, and even Lambert-Smith is an iffy No. 1 option. That's a real concern and the past few weeks haven't seemingly alleviated those concerns, even if this group dropped 51 against Maryland.

A November game in the that will be in the 30s, featured two of the best defenses in the country? Yeah, this is going to be a Big Ten football game, alright. It's probably not going to be very pretty, a game where field position is at a premium and a turnover or special teams play could make all the difference. I still believe Michigan is the better football team but how do they respond to this level of test? The sign-stealing controversy makes them such a wild card to me - will it provide even more motivation or be the distraction that derails an otherwise special 2023? This Saturday will tell us quite a bit.

The Pick: Michigan, 24 Penn State, 17

(#9) Ole Miss Rebels @ (#2) Georgia Bulldogs

Line: Georgia -10.5

O/U: 58.5

Following Alabama's win over LSU last weekend, it's looking more and more like we will see another battle between the Tide and mighty Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game. But, the 8-1 Ole Miss Rebels might have something to say about that, as they remain firmly in the SEC West mix, although the Tide do own the tiebreaker over them. Going into Sanford Stadium and pulling off the upset for the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs would be the ultimate statement from Lane Kiffin and company, and the Rebels have nothing to lose this Saturday.

Kiffin-coached teams have typically been known for their offense, but this year's Rebels team brings much more balance to the equation. They can still light up the scoreboard when necessary, but this is also one of the most improved defenses in the nation under coordinator Pete Golding. That will be crucial in any hopes of an upset bid, as they face a Georgia offense that has been surprisingly explosive all season. Quarterback Carson Beck has impressed in his first season as starter and he doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon. Missouri did an excellent job keeping him in check for most of the game last Saturday, but he still finished with 254 yards and two touchdowns, but that's not even the most important part - he simply doesn't turn the ball over. That's going to be important against an opportunistic Rebels defense that is going to play with reckless abandon in this one. Beck may be without his top target in tight end Brock Bowers, but the Bulldogs continue to find new weapons to emerge on the perimeter and the ground game seems to be getting better each and every week. Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton may not be the most fearsome tailback combo Kirby Smart and company have trotted out in recent years, but they have been effective enough to provide this team balance. With Beck making things happen through the air, even a serviceable ground attack has made this offense consistently excellent.

There's been good balance on the Rebel offense all season long, too, which hasn't always been the case for Lane Kiffin in Oxford. Quinshon Judkins looked well on his way to becoming one of the best running backs anywhere in the country, but he's instead been outshined by quarterback Jaxson Dart and a superb passing game. Dart has nearly 3,000 yards of total offense and 23 total touchdowns, while limiting turnovers and playing confident football. It has felt like a statement campaign for Dart, who watched Ole Miss add two notable QB transfers over the offseason in Spencer Sanders and Walker Howard, but beat them both out to hold on to his starting job. The emergence of a strong wide receiver trio in Tre Harris, Jordan Watkins, and Dayton Wade has also been a pleasant surprise. Harris, a former Louisiana Tech transfer, has been the big-play threat, while it's Watkins and Wade that can open things up horizontally and soften up defenses. I'm sure Lane will be eager to draw up something new and tricky for the challenge Georgia possesses, and I do think this offense is up for the challenge. The main concern I have? Dart, and this entire unit, have a real knack for struggling in big games like this. The Alabama game is a perfect example, with the Rebels managing just 301 yards and ten points in a losing effort. Is going on the road to face a stifling Bulldog defense going to flip the script?

I've picked against Ole Miss multiple times this season, but the Rebels just keep on winning, with the chance to vault themselves into the Playoff discussion with an upset. But, I remain skeptical that this is the team that is going to go into Sanford Stadium and break Georgia's 26-game win steak. It would take some extra Lane Kiffin magic and even that doesn't seem to always show up in these types of games.

The Pick: Georgia, 35 Ole Miss, 21

(#18) Utah Utes @ (#5) Washington Huskies

Line: Washington -9.5

O/U: 49.5

Sitting at 9-0 and with the Heisman frontrunner under center, Washington is in position to become the first Pac-12 to make the College Football Playoff since they achieved the feat all the way back in 2016. But, standing in their is a brutal end to their regular season, with Utah, Oregon State, and Washington State remaining on their schedule. First up is the Utes, who will travel to Seattle fresh off a 55-3 dismantling of Arizona State.

If you haven't had a chance to watch the Washington offense this fall, you're missing out. Penix is the figurehead, but he's far from the only playmaker, as the Huskies feature arguably the nation's top receiver corps and an underrated tailback in Dillon Johnson. With the unlimited arm strength of Penix, the Huskies haven't been afraid to take shots down the field, and play-caller Ryan Grubb is creative in how he opens up gaping holes in the defense. No unit has been able to slow them down this season, with the lone exception being an Arizona State team that got them the week after the exhausting Oregon victory. But, Utah does present an interesting challenge for Penix and company. This is one of the most consistent defenses you'll find anywhere in the country and the physicality they play with is just a grind. There are more talented defenses, sure, but the way the Utes play just has a way of grinding you down. They're particularly strong up front and should give the Washington offensive line a battle, although it's the back-end I'm curious about. Despite having Clark Phillips III, the Utes struggled to defend the pass a season ago, but have seen improvements this year. If they can hold Penix in check and potentially force a few turnovers, this game could get very interesting very fast.

To say that Utah plays a different brand of offense than Washington is an understatement. As compared to the Huskies, who boast the nation's top passing offense, the Utes rank 123rd and are led by backup signal-caller Bryson Barnes. Barnes has been solid, but it's the ground game that really makes the Utes go, spearheaded by the duo of Ja'Quinden Jackson and Jaylon Glover. Jackson is a key difference-maker; when he's on, Utah has been able to find a rhythm early and feed the passing game. But, the Oregon game was the perfect example of how the offense can struggle when he's taken out of the game. On the perimeter, Mikey Matthews and DeVaughn Vele have been effective and should give a mediocre Husky secondary difficulties. Then, there's the ultimate wild card of the offense: two-way weapon Sione Vaki, if we do indeed say him play both ways this week. Vaki looked like the next sensation during a monster two-week stretch in mid-November, but hasn't been deployed offensively in the last two weeks. It feels like the Ute offense may need an extra boost, and he Vaki is the type of weapon that can provide just that.

It's going to be a month of tests for Washington as they finish off November, but they still maintain a clear advantage in this matchup. Kyle Whittingham and staff have whipped up a magical season considering the circumstances, but going on the road to face an explosive Huskies team is a lot to ask this deep into the season. If Penix continues rolling and the Huskies contain Jackson and the Ute ground game, they should be able to reach the double-digit win mark.

The Pick: Washington, 38 Utah, 27

Other Picks

USC Trojans @ (#6) Oregon Ducks -- Alex Grinch may be gone, but I'm not convinced that will fix USC's defensive woes. Unless they completely transform within the span of a week, Bo Nix, Bucky Irving, and Troy Franklin are going to have a field day.

The Pick: Oregon, 48 USC, 31

(#13) Tennessee Volunteers @ (#14) Missouri Tigers -- In what essentially acts as the SEC East second place game, Tennessee goes on the road to face a Missouri team that gave Georgia a game last week. I remain extremely high on these Tigers, and they should come out on top in a game with significant shootout potential.

The Pick: Missouri, 42 Tennessee, 34

Miami Hurricanes @ (#4) Florida State Seminoles -- You never know in these types of rivalry games, but Florida State has answered the call each and every week of the season, and get the Hurricanes in Doak Campbell.

The Pick: Florida State, 31 Miami, 21

Upset: Texas Tech Red Raiders @ (#16) Kansas Jayhawks -- It's been a dream season for Lance Leipold and company, but the upset-minded Red Raiders have the capabilities to match them blow-by-blow in a classic Big 12 duel.

The Pick: Texas Tech, 38 Kansas, 35

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Baylor Bears (+21.5) @ Kansas State Wildcats -- Kansas State has played themselves into prime position in the Big 12 race, but this is rarely the type of offense to play away from folks early. The Bears could hang along long to cover this spread.

The Pick: Kansas State, 31 Baylor, 14

Lock of the Week: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11) @ Kentucky Wildcats -- Alabama seems to be getting better each week, and seems to be evolving into the monster that we've come to know them under Nick Saban. Going to Lexington will be an intriguing test, but a stifling Alabama defense shouldn't have too much trouble with a Kentcuky offense that has struggled to find a rhythm all year.

The Pick: Alabama, 34 Kentucky, 17

College Football Picks 2023: Week Ten

Jayden Daniels, LSU

 

Current Picks Record: 56-25

Upsets: 5-4

Superdogs: 6-3

Locks: 6-3

(#14) LSU Tigers @ (#8) Alabama Crimson Tide

Line: Alabama -3

O/U: 61.5

Last season's LSU-Alabama game was one of the most exciting of the fall, punctuated by Brian Kelly's gutsy decision to go for two to beat the mighty Crimson Tide. A year later, the two are in the driver's seat in the SEC West race and both appear evenly matched, meaning we could see another thriller this Saturday in Tuscaloosa.

Jayden Daniels is putting together one of the most impressive quarterback seasons we've ever seen from a LSU quarterback, leading a passing attack that is third nationally. It's quite the departure from what we saw last year from the former Arizona State transfer, who did most of his damage with his legs in 2022. Daniels can still extend plays, but it's his growth as a passer that has been one of the most surprising storylines of the 2023 campaign. He's notched 2,573 yards and 25 touchdowns over LSU's first eight games, and he likely would be the Heisman favorite if there wasn't a two in the "L" column for the Tigers. Helping him out has been a potent 1-2 punch at receiver in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas, who have combined for over 1,600 yards and 20 touchdowns on the year. Nabers is the deep threat, the speed demon who can take the top off the defense, while Thomas' large frame makes him a real matchup nightmare anywhere on the field. It feels eerily similar to 2019 LSU, with Joe Burrow slinging it to Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson on the outside. Sure, this year's trio may not be quite at that level, but the productivity remains the same, and should give the Tide problems. We've seen real growth on this side of the ball from Alabama in 2023, but the pass defense is still prone to the big play. Kool-Aid McKinstry may be able to take out one of the duo, but fellow corner Terrion Arnold feels like he could be an X-factor. The young DB had an up-and-down game in the Texas loss and you never quite can be sure what you're getting from him, but he has also had numerous bright moments on the year. Expect Alabama DC Kevin Steele to try and ramp up the pressure to throw Daniels off his game, with Dallas Turner and company set to play at a relentless pace. LSU's offensive line has held up most of the season, but this provides a unique challenge in a hostile environment.

Alabama's quarterback quandary was one of the most fascinating aspects of the early 2023 season, but it appears as though they've found their guy in Jalen Milroe. The sophomore is a rollercoaster ride; his running ability makes him a thrill to watch, but as a passer, he's chaotic. There are typically one or two throws a drive that look like an NFL throw, but he'll follow it up with a wild one. The good news is that it looks like Milroe has found an ability to reel it in, and this offense is starting to find a rhythm around him. The ground game hasn't been up to its typical Alabama ways, but remains reliable, and the receiver corps is good enough to get this team where they want to go. If Milroe can play the way he has the last several weeks, where he's making smart reads and taking care of the ball, I have little doubt the Tide can move the ball against a soft Tiger defense. Of course, that relies on Alabama's offensive line being up to par, which has been the most consistent problem for the team in 2023. This group does seem to be trending upwards, but they're up for a challenge this weekend. If these blockers can give Milroe just a bit of breathing room, he should have real opportunities against one of the worst secondaries in the SEC. It isn't like this group is trending in the right direction, either. All four of the corner transfers the Tigers brought in over the offseason are unlikely to play Saturday, namely No. 1 guy Zy Alexander, who left the Army game with an ankle injury. Matt House and this defensive staff are going to have to counter with something special, even against one of the most underwhelming Alabama offenses we've seen in some time.

After a long Alabama win streak throughout the 2010s, this has been a fun and competitive rivalry series once again. I expect that to remain the case this weekend, as both come in with notable flaws, even with rosters filled to the brim with NFL talent. Jayden Daniels gives LSU an edge in every game he plays, but the defense is extremely concerning to me. It's not just the pass defense, but the group just doesn't have the same energy or discipline they seemed to have throughout 2022. If Milroe can keep rolling and the Tide take care of the ball, I think they leave Bryant-Denny with a slim victory.

The Pick: Alabama, 31 LSU, 28

(#12) Missouri Tigers @ (#2) Georgia Bulldogs

Line: Georgia -15.5

O/U: 55.5

Surprise, surprise, Georgia entered November undefeated and looking to close in on yet another CFB Playoff appearance, but at least one more division obstacle stands in their way. It's the 7-1 Missouri Tigers, one of the best stories in college football this fall. Eli Drinkwitz has a team that not only plays great football, but is genuinely fun. They play hard, put up lots of points, and have one of the nation's best players in Luther Burden at receiver. But, can they really go into Sanford Stadium and shock the 'Dawgs?

I'm not sure there's been a more impressive offensive turnaround in the nation this year than the one that has unfolded at Missouri. A season ago, the Tigers averaged a measly 24.8 PPG, which finished 86th nationally. This year, nearly 33, with real balance and consistency throughout the unit. Quarterback Brady Cook has been a revelation, totaling 2,259 yards and 15 touchdowns on the season, with tailback Cody Schrader and wide outs Burden and Theo Wease providing plenty of complementary support. Burden in particular is the player Georgia is keying in on; the sophomore had reeled off five straight games of 100 receiving yards before being held in check by a physical Kentucky defense. He responded by going for 97 yards against South Carolina and it's clear the Tigers are trying to get him the ball in a multitude of ways. Georgia does have an elite back-end, but Burden will provide a stiff challenge, while Wease may be able to take advantage of their added focus on the other side. My big question for Missouri's offense isn't at the skill positions - I firmly believe they will still move the ball. No, it's up front, where the offensive line faces your usual elite Bulldog front seven. Drinkwitz is still working to build Missouri to an SEC-caliber program in the trenches, but I'm not sure they are there just yet.

Throughout the Kirby Smart years, Georgia has played a similar brand of offensive football: pounding the rock and taking occasional chances through the air. The 2023 group is different - they are going to sling it, and QB Carson Beck has been superb in his first full season as starter. He's in control of the nation's fourth-best passing offense, a far departure from what we've known a typical Bulldog attack. Those numbers are made even more impressive when you consider that tight end Brock Bowers, who was building to a John Mackey season, has been ruled out for the rest of the regular season. Sophomore Oscar Delp is going to try and step up and fill his shoes, but the absence of Bowers has given this receiver corps a chance to shine, namely a healthy Ladd McConkey and Dominic Lovett. McConkey is one of my favorite players in college football; on a team full of players that look like they were built in a lab, McConkey is a fairly average six foot, 185 pounds. But, the junior really energizes this offense, and burned Florida to the tune of 135 yards last weekend. This passing game has taken pressure off a Bulldog ground attack that has been less than spectacular. Although to be fair, the backfield has been dealing with injuries all year long and also appears to be getting healthy at the right time. Missouri has shown they can contain the run, but if the Bulldogs can show balance and mix up play-calling, there are going to be real mismatches on the perimeter.

I've been a firm believer in Missouri all year long, but this has the feel of a Georgia game where they just come out, physically overpower and pummel you into the dirt. Add in a much more explosive offense than we are used to for the Bulldogs, I expect them to not have too much difficulties with the upstart Tigers. As much as I would like to pull the upset, that feels like a shot in the dark with this game taking place in Athens.

The Pick: Georgia, 38 Missouri, 24

(#9) Oklahoma Sooners @ (#22) Oklahoma State Cowboys

Line: Oklahoma -6

O/U: 61.5

As hard as it is to believe, there's a very real possibility this is the final Bedlam game... potentially ever. With Oklahoma off to the SEC and the two programs yet to come to an agreement as to when they will play again, at the very least it's likely to be awhile before we see them square off on the gridiron. That should add another layer of intrigue to a rivalry that always ends up getting a bit weird.

Was last Saturday the wakeup call Oklahoma needed? The Sooners were riding high at 7-0 and with a big win over Texas to their credit, but then they went on the road and were subsequently shocked by the Kansas Jayhawks. The offense ended up putting up 33 points in a losing effort, but confusing play-calling at the end of the game led Sooner fans to be frustrated, and could provide additional motivation here. QB Dillon Gabiel continues to play great football, but the supporting cast around him has not lived up to expectations. The ground game has been nearly nonexistent all season and although Jalil Farooq and Drake Stoops have put up fine numbers, they aren't the typical type of playmakers Oklahoma has featured on the outside. To make matters worse, Farooq was arrested late Thursday night, which could put his status for Saturday in jeopardy. Expect Nick Anderson, who has one of the breakout stars of the Big 12 this year, to be leaned on heavily once more. The good news for the Sooners is that the defense they're facing isn't exactly a shutdown group. Although the Cowboys don't have dreadful numbers, they've been frightfully inconsistent, and have struggled against some of the top units they've faced.

There may not be a better tailback in college football right now than Ollie Gordon II, who is playing his way into the Heisman conversation with a dominant month. After just 109 yards over his first three games, the sophomore has reeled off five straight games of at least 100 rushing yards, including back-to-back performances of 282 and 271 against West Virginia and Cincinnati. Needless to say, he will be the focal point of Oklahoma State's offensive attack once again, and faces a Sooner defense that has improved defensively, but is still a work in progress under Brent Venables. How the Oklahoma front seven fares against Gordon could be the deciding factor this Saturday, and that may end up coming down to the status of linebacker Danny Stutsman, who is expected to be a game-time decision. It sounds like things are trending in the direction of him playing, which would be a much-needed boost after OU's pronounced defensive struggles in the Kansas loss. Even with Gordon, I do believe the Cowboys will need to generate some form of a passing attack, which is going to fall on the shoulders of veteran QB Alan Bowman. Bowman isn't the same gunslinger we saw back at Texas Tech back in the day, as he's more of an underneath passer nowadays, but that can work for this Oklahoma State team if Gordon is softening things from side to side. The Cowboys don't exactly boast an elite receiver, but they've developed an effective trio in Jaden Bray, Brennan Presley, and Rashod Owens, and Gordon can also make things happen as a pass-catcher. It could be enough to at least keep the Sooners honest, but this Oklahoma pass defense has really taken off in 2023. It feels like they'll be eager to show what they can do in a rivalry game like this.

The chaotic nature of Bedlam always makes it a difficult game to predict, and this year feels particularly tricky. Oklahoma is the much better team top-to-bottom, but they're fresh off a loss, and the Cowboys are one of the hottest teams anywhere in the country, and they get OU in Stillwater. Even so, I'm still going to go with the favorite, and pick the Sooners to come out victorious. Perhaps the Kansas loss was the perfect wakeup call the team needed, and in these types of close games, I always lean on the team with the superior quarterback.

The Pick: Oklahoma, 42 Oklahoma State, 31

Other Picks

(#23) Kansas State Wildcats @ (#7) Texas Longhorns -- No Quinn Ewers and a flaming hot Kansas State team playing their best football of the season? I'm taking the upset, and placing my bets on a Wildcats team that has been a reliable thorn in the side of UT over the years.

The Pick: Kansas State, 28 Texas, 23

(#5) Washington Huskies @ (#20) USC Trojans -- Washington has looked very beatable since the massive Oregon win, but this isn't a Trojan team lighting the world on fire, either. I shudder to think about Michael Penix Jr. is about to do to this soft USC pass defense.

The Pick: Washington, 52 USC, 41

(#15) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Clemson Tigers -- Could we really see a sub-.500 Clemson team in early November? Getting Notre Dame at home is huge, but there's no reason to feel confident in this Tiger team right now. 

The Pick: Notre Dame, 31 Clemson, 21

Upset: (#19) UCLA Bruins @ Arizona Wildcats -- Arizona is one of the hottest teams in the country right now, and helped me nail my upset pick a week ago. I'll double-dip this Saturday, as they get UCLA at home late at night, perfect grounds for another upset opportunity.

The Pick: Arizona, 38 UCLA, 28

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): UConn Huskies (+36) @ Tennessee Volunteers -- It's been a rough Year Two for Jim Mora in charge in Storrs, but could they cover this wide spread in Knoxville? You can never be sure what you're getting from the Volunteer offense, so there's a chance.

The Pick: Tennessee, 45 UConn, 10

Lock of the Week: New Mexico State Aggies (-3) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders -- Jerry Kill continues to do a remarkable job at New Mexico State, as he has the Aggies bowling again in early November. Now, they welcome an overmatched 2-6 Middle Tennessee team to Las Cruces. 

The Pick: New Mexico State, 30 Middle Tennessee, 17

College Football Picks 2023: Week Nine

Bryson Barnes, Utah

Current Picks Record: 49-23

Upsets: 4-4

Superdogs: 5-3

Locks: 6-2

(#8) Oregon Ducks @ (#13) Utah Utes

Line: Oregon -6.5

O/U: 47.5

Oregon and Utah have been two of the most consistent programs in the Pac-12 over the last half-decade, and now they square off in their final conference meeting before moving on (assuming they don't collide again in the conference championship game). It's an interesting battle; Oregon has looked every bit like a Playoff contender and their lone loss is a quality one, a close defeat on the road to an undefeated Washington. Utah has not looked very impressive for much of the year, but the ever-steady Utes are still firmly in the Pac-12 Title mix at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in the league. 

The Washington loss likely knocked Bo Nix out of Heisman frontrunner status, but the veteran quarterback remains one of the country's best. He responded with a three-touchdown performance over Washington State and has looked in complete control of a Duck offense that has been explosive all year. It helps that the Ducks have found an effective supporting cast around him, with a two-headed monster at tailback in Bucky Irving and Jordan James, plus Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson out wide. But for me, the X-factor for this Utah matchup is up front. Dan Lanning has continued what Mario Cristobal started in loading up in the trenches and turning this into a program that closely resembles a typical Big Ten or SEC team, which has been crucial in maintaining Oregon's status on the national stage. But, will this offensive line will be up for the unique challenge Utah poses? The Utes don't always have star power up front, but there are few programs as consistently physical as this one - they are simply a pain to play each and every single Saturday. The good news for Oregon is that the Ute pass defense looks susceptible, and they will also be without their star linebacker, Lander Barton, who is officially done for the season. That should help Oregon establish a rhythm on the ground early and be able to take the top off this defense down the stretch. But again, that relies on the offensive line, which has been superb all season but will likely have to turn it up a notch in this one.

Considering the adversity Utah has faced offensively, it remains remarkable that this team enters this weekend 6-1. They have been without quarterback Cam Rising all season and after the USC win last weekend, Whittingham confirmed what has been become clear the deeper we get into 2023: Rising is not going to return this fall. That means it's officially Bryson Barnes' team, and the gritty signal-caller has shown he's up for it, fresh off a strong showing against the Trojans. Still, the offense is rather limited with Barnes under center; they aren't going to take many deep shots but instead play ball control and take their opportunities through the air as they come. Ja'Quinden Jackson and Jaylon Glover have given the Utes quality production on the ground all season, but it's the sudden emergence of do-it-all Sione Vaki that has been the real storyline for Utah. The converted safety is their most explosive weapon through the air and on the ground, giving this offense some potency that they've missed throughout most of the fall. He'll be the main priority for this Duck defense, but the Utes have been creative in how they get him the ball. If he can bust open a big play or two, this team has a shot to hang with Oregon, especially considering the Duck back-end has been underwhelming for most of the season. 

I find this to be an extremely difficult matchup to predict. Oregon looks like the better team on both sides of the ball, but there's just something about this Utah team. They're always going to play incredibly hard and they just find ways to win, even if the talent advantage isn't on their side. Plus, it's so tricky to go into Rice-Eccles Stadium and beat the Utes, the atmosphere alone is a touchdown advantage. I think Oregon finds a way to squeak it out with Nix and company, but this could essentially be a coin flip scenario.

The Pick: Oregon, 30 Utah, 24

(#1) Georgia Bulldogs @ Florida Gators

Line: Georgia -14.5

O/U: 49

The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party celebrates its 102nd meeting this Saturday, with the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs clashing with the 5-2 Florida Gators at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. It's no surprise the Bulldogs are comfortable favorites, but Billy Napier's Gators have made major strides this year and should be up for a battle in this rivalry game.

After managing just 11 points in the season-opening loss to Utah, it appeared as though the Gator offense was going to be in for a long season. Instead, there's been real growth on this side of the ball, with Florida dropping 38 and 41 points over the last two weeks. Those two games may have been against two of the worst defenses in the SEC, but there's no denying the Gators are starting to find their groove, and QB Graham Mertz has been rock-solid running the show. He's helped by two tremendous tailbacks in Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson, while wide out Ricky Pearsall should be a Biletnikoff Award candidate, with 619 yards over the first seven games. Things get taken up a notch against the always stingy Georgia defense, but the Bulldogs aren't quite as dominant on this side of the ball as they have been in the past. There's still loads of future NFL talent and real star-power, but there isn't that alpha up front we've become accustomed too. Instead, it's been the secondary leading the way, namely veteran Tykee Smith and rising sophomore Malaki Starks. That means Florida could still find ways to move the ball on the ground, although Mertz still remains a deciding factor. Nobody is expecting the former Wisconsin transfer to sit back and sling it up for 300-plus yards against UGA, but he's going to have to force the Bulldogs to respect the passing game and stay honest. If he can do that and not turn the ball over, the Gators could still find a way to succeed through their ground-and-pound style.

Georgia's offense has also been a pleasant surprise in many ways, but particularly when you consider the injury troubles they've faced throughout the year. Key contributors at just about every group have gone through injury pains, but most notably the star of the show, tight end Brock Bowers. Bowers has been ruled out for the rest of the regular season, forcing the Bulldogs to find new ways to move the ball. Quarterback Carson Beck has been tremendous in his first season as starter and even without his favorite target, should be set for another impressive performance this weekend. In fact, Georgia currently boasts the nation's No. 5 passing offense, a far cry from the usual ground-oriented scheme we've become accustomed to under Kirby Smart. Part of that can be attributed to the injuries the Bulldogs have suffered in the backfield, but Beck's steady presence makes this an effective and entertaining offense. The Bulldogs are getting healthier in the backfield with Kendall Milton working his way back to full strength, so they'll look to have more balance against a Gator defense that's inconsistent. Florida has had strong weeks, sure, but you can never quite be sure what product you're going to get on the field every Saturday. It feels like they dominate their inferior competition but don't play up to the top teams on their schedule, which could be bad news for a matchup like this.

I give Florida plenty of credit - after the bad loss to Utah to open up the year, this had the looks of a team that was going to be in for a rough season but now they have a chance to move into the driver's seat with an upset. That's easier said than done, but you never know in this types of neutral site rivalry games. I still think Georgia is certainly the safer bet and will be my pick, but this one could be a lot more interesting than the line indicates.

The Pick: Georgia, 34 Florida, 24

(#3) Ohio State Buckeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers

Line: Ohio State -14.5

O/U: 46.5

Fresh off a major win over Penn State, Ohio State looks to be on a collision course with Michigan for a Big Ten Title. But first, they have to avoid a potential trap game before that, which includes a road trip to Madison to face off with Wisconsin. The Badgers are also coming off a big win, albeit in comeback fashion against a much lesser opponent, and will be eager for their first win over Ohio State since 2010..

As I mentioned in my writeup of Ohio State-Penn State last week, this is a much different Buckeye team than we've become accustomed to under Ryan Day. The offense has been good, but far from great, and simply doesn't have the same rhythm or big-play ability that we've seen in the past. There are several reasons for that - for one, Brian Hartline is still getting acclimated to his new role as offensive coordinator. Just as important, first-year starter Kyle McCord is still getting adjusted himself and developing chemistry with his receiver corps. But perhaps most important, the Buckeyes have been hit hard by the injury bug all season, most notably at the skill positions. Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, and Miyan Williams have all missed time, which has forced McCord to do more and Marvin Harrison Jr. to essentially become superhuman to move the football. It looks like that trio should all be back for this matchup, and Ohio State has to hope it can finally spring a run game that has been nonexistent at times this fall. Williams and Henderson are a very effective 1-2 punch while healthy and if they are able to take some pressure off McCord, things should run smoother here. If all else fails, Harrison Jr. is easily the best player on the field and should have a chance to overwhelm this Badger secondary, plus tight end Cade Stover provides a nice element over the middle of the field. 

For all the talk of Wisconsin's offensive overhaul this offseason, this is your prototypical Badger offensive scheme. They are going to play their usual ground-and-pound style, control the ball, and hope that strong defense and special teams is enough to come out on top. That strategy has been taken up a notch since the injury to starting QB Tanner Mordecai, which has forced former Mississippi State transfer Braedyn Locke into a starting role. Nobody expects Locke to do too much in this offense; he's going to feed Braelon Allen out of the backfield, make smart throws underneath, and potentially take a deep shot or two. It's a gameplan that isn't always pretty but has remained overall effective, thanks in large part to Allen being one of the nation's premier tailbacks. But to pull an upset, there has to be some balance here, or else the Buckeyes are going to load up the box with a bunch of NFL talent. I do think Locke has real arm talent, but is there a receiver that can make things happen? Will Pauling has been a revelation and Chimere Dike has been in the program for awhile, but they face a real test against one of the best Ohio State secondaries we've seen in some time. Bryson Green is another guy that I've long been high on and he certainly could help open things up, but the consistency has never been there. This is just a very tough matchup for the Badgers based on the way they play, and that's particularly true against this Ohio State team. This is a physical Ohio State defense that plays with real edge, a testament to the work Ryan Day and staff have done in response to how their last two seasons have ended.

This has the makings of the perfect upset opportunity, with Ohio State going on the road against a stingy Badger team one week removed from an emotional victory. But, I'm just not sure this year's Wisconsin team is the one to end the losing streak against OSU. It would take magic from Locke, making just his third start, plus a heroic defensive showing. They may be able to keep things tight, but the difference in talent on the depth chart will show through eventually.

The Pick: Ohio State, 35 Wisconsin, 20

Other Picks

(#20) Duke Blue Devils @ (#18) Louisville Cardinals -- Duke is the toughest team to pick in college football right now. They've looked legit when Riley Leonard has played, but the star quarterback remains banged up and his status is uncertain for this one. Playing at home, Louisville is the safer pick over the mystery of the Blue Devils.

The Pick: Louisville, 28 Duke, 24

(#21) Tennessee Volunteers @ Kentucky Wildcats -- For as frustrating as the second half of the Alabama loss was for Tennessee, it may provide extra motivation as they travel to Lexington. Kentucky has looked completely outclassed against every ranked team they've played this year, so this is a comfortable Vols pick for me.

The Pick: Tennessee, 31 Kentucky, 17

(#6) Oklahoma Sooners @ Kansas Jayhawks -- There's real upset opportunity for a good Kansas team playing in Lawrence, but with Jason Bean once again being forced to fill in at QB for the injured Jalon Daniels, I'm sticking with OU.

The Pick: Oklahoma, 40 Kansas, 28

Upset: (#11) Oregon State Beavers @ Arizona Wildcats -- This one is giving major "Pac-12 After Dark" energy. Oregon State has been great all year, but Arizona has been a completely different team under QB Noah Fifita, and they get the Beavers in Tucson.

The Pick: Arizona, 38 Oregon State, 35

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Vanderbilt Commodores (+24.5) @ Ole Miss Rebels -- Ole Miss may be 6-1, but they've won close game after close game. This is not the 13th best team in the nation and while Vanderbilt may not beat them, they should cover.

The Pick: Ole Miss, 30 Vanderbilt, 10

Lock of the Week: North Carolina Tar Heels (-11) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -- Last week's stinker at the hands of Virginia might have been just what UNC needs for the second half of the season. Georgia Tech is a mystery each and every week which makes me nervous, but a focused UNC team should have no issues with them.

The Pick: North Carolina, 41 Georgia Tech, 24

College Football Picks 2023: Week Eight

Drew Allar, Penn State

Current Picks Record: 44-19

Upsets: 4-3

Superdogs: 5-2

Locks: 6-1

(#7) Penn State Nittany Lions @ (#3) Ohio State Buckeyes

Line: Ohio State -4.5

O/U: 45.5

Three Big Ten East teams currently sit in the top seven nationally, but this weekend will go a long way in telling us how the division race will shake out. Michigan appears to still be the team to beat, but both Ohio State and Penn State remain firmly in the hunt and have an opportunity for a major resume boost on Saturday in Columbus.

We've come to know Ohio State for explosive offenses under Ryan Day, but the 2023 Buckeyes have a different feel to them. The offense has still been good, but not the potent group we've seen in recent years. Instead, it's been an elite defense that has led the way all year long, which could be the case again as Ohio State deals with extensive offensive injuries. They're hoping to have tailbacks TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, along with receiver Emeka Ebguka, back in action, but it's fair to wonder just how many snaps they'll be able to handle. All three play crucial roles; Henderson and Williams are their top two rushers, while Egbuka helps alleviate some of the pressure on Marvin Harrison Jr. out wide. That could put additional pressure on quarterback Kyle McCord, who has an up-and-down first year as starter. It's natural for McCord to have growing pains and he seems to be getting more comfortable, but the reality is that he is no C.J. Stroud, at least not yet. The offense just doesn't have the same bit to it, which is a real concern as they face a hungry Penn State defense. Manny Diaz is never afraid to dial up the pressure, and now he gets an opportunity to show out against a young quarterback? The Buckeye offensive line could be an X-Factor and McCord better be ready. This could be the toughest test he's seen yet, likely even more difficult than a Notre Dame team who held the Buckeyes to a pedestrian 366 yards.

Much like Ohio State, the focus most of the season for Penn State has been on the defensive side of the football. They're allowing just eight points per game, surrendering just 13 total over their last three games, but the offense also appears to be hitting its stride. Again, like the Buckeyes, we knew it was going to take some time for the Nittany Lion to find itself with a young quarterback, but Drew Allar has been as good as advertised. The sophomore hasn't been taking many shots down the field, but he's been remarkably efficient, completing 65% of his passes with zero turnovers. Just as important, there's a certain poise that Allar plays with that seems to permeate itself through the entire offense. That's going to be important against a Buckeye defense with a host of future NFL pieces at every single level. Up front, J.T. Tuimoloau who took over in this game a year ago, while Denzel Burke and others patrol the air waves. It will be important for Allar to develop a ryhthm early on and it would also be nice if the receiver corps could step up beyond KeAndre Lambert-Smith. That includes tight end Theo Johnson, but also wide outs Harrison Wallace III and Dante Cephas, who have been fairly quiet for much of the fall. However, Penn State does retain one significant advantage in this game: their ground attack. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are a two-headed monster who have overwhelmed defenses all season long. Even against a stout Buckeye front, they are the type of weapons that can make the ultimate difference in what is sure to be a tight one.

It feels like every Ohio State-Penn State game is a battle and this game should be no different. But, instead of the offenses lighting things up, it may end up being more of a defensive duel, where field position is at a premium. I actually think that type of game favors Penn State, a team with an elite ground and physical defense, but the Buckeyes are tough to pick against. They've owned the series as of late and playing at home, I like them to squeak out a victory.

The Pick: Ohio State, 28 Penn State, 27

(#17) Tennessee Volunteers @ (#11) Alabama Crimson Tide

Line: Alabama -9

O/U: 48

The "Third Saturday in October" is one of my favorite rivalries in college football. Sure, Alabama has dominated the series the last decade-and-a-half, but when both programs are on, it's one of the most intense and passionate rivalries you'll find anywhere in the nation. That appears to be case this season with both teams residing in the Top 20 and in the SEC Title mix, even with the pair suffering through pronounced ups-and-downs.

Certainly this is far from the best Alabama team Nick Saban has fielded in Tuscaloosa, but they've recovered nicely from an early-season defeat to Texas. The Tide have ripped off five straight victories, making them the team to beat in the SEC West. Jalen Milroe has locked down the quarterback position after early-season controversy and despite the growing pains, he looks to be settling in. Milroe remains quite volatile; he'll make one or two plays a series that truly wow you and then follow it up with a head-scratcher, but Alabama seems to have figured out how to live with it. It helps that Milroe can extend things with his dynamic running ability, which has given this offense another way to move the ball. Around Milroe, other pieces also appear to be hitting their stride. The ground attack has been effective, with Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams, while Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond give the passing game some bite. But, my main focus is going to be the offensive line, which hasn't played like a typical Alabama group over the course of the 2023 campaign. Tide fans have been spoiled with a run of elite blockers but this unit just hasn't been up to the task. That's a real concern against a team like Tennessee, who blitzes constantly and is going to be extra aggressive. Milroe may have to create out of the pocket more than usual and although it's a strength of his, it also increases the likelihood for turnovers. You also wonder how effective running the ball is going to be when the line isn't up to par. Alabama has made it work but to beat quality teams like Tennessee, they're going to need more up front.

Tennessee's offense has taken an understandable step back, not surprising considering the departures of Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt over the offseason. Quarterback Joe Milton has been effective in Hooker's stead, but simply is not the weapon the departed signal-caller was, and has been maddeningly inconsistent at times. It's a mystery which Milton you're going to get each week, and he doesn't always show up for these types of huge games. The Volunteers have leaned more heavily on their running backs than in the past and Jaylen Wright has shown up in a big way, so that balance will be big. The junior has shown he can do it against elite defenses, too, rushing for 136 yards against Texas A&M a week ago. Expect that ground game to continue to be vital as the Volunteers figure out who their top guys are going to be on the perimeter. They're still reeling from the season-ending injury to Bru McCoy, which has put additional burden on names like Ramel Keyton and Squirrel White. Both bring their own strengths and have been able to produce, but the lack of depth among the receiver corps is concerning. Alabama can choose to hone in on that pair and if they're able to contain them, this offense becomes significantly less intimidating. Neither are Hyatt, either, which should give the Tide solace after they were burned by the wide out in this game last fall.

Last season's Alabama-Tennessee game was arguably the game of the year, with the Vols able to get the monkey off their back and finally secure a series victory. This season will be a tougher challenge; although the Tide are susceptible, the Volunteer offense just doesn't have the same spark, and they will also be playing on the road. Add in the fact this defense has struggled to contain running quarterbacks like Milroe, the Tide are a safe bet to avenge last year's defeat.

The Pick: Alabama, 28 Tennessee, 20

(#16) Duke Blue Devils @ (#4) Florida State Seminoles

Line: Florida State -14

O/U: 49.5

Duke has been one of the best stories in college football over the first month-and-a-half of the season, with a resounding victory over Clemson in the opener setting the stage for a 5-1 start. But now, things get serious - they face Florida State in Tallahassee this weekend and then Louisville, Wake Forest, and North Carolina over the coming weeks. It will tell us a lot about whether this team has legit ACC Title aspirations, or whether they were merely a flash in the pan.

Duke's season trajectory threatened to derail when star quarterback Riley Leonard was injured in the closing minutes of the Notre Dame loss. The dynamic dual-threat is the heart-and-soul of the offense and one of the premier signal-callers in the ACC. Fortunately, what looked like a serious injury at the time turned out to be a high ankle sprain and there's a chance Leonard could play this Saturday, which could end up making all the difference. Leonard is a notoriously difficult QB to game plan against and if he's able to go at all, Duke's chances of pulling out an upset rise exponentially. If he can't go, the Blue Devils instead turn to freshman Henry Belin IV, who started the NC State win. Belin can make things happen with his legs, but his lone start wasn't particularly encouraging, albeit against a strong NC State defense. Duke will also need more from a supporting cast to move the ball against the Seminoles, namely tailback Jordan Waters and wide outs Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore. It's not an especially flashy group of playmakers, at least when you compare it to other Top 20 teams, but can be very effective with Leonard at the helm. The offensive line play is also going to be crucial; Jared Verse and the rest of this Florida State defensive front are going to come after the Blue Devils, no matter who's taking snaps under center.

The Seminoles boast one of the most potent offenses anywhere in the nation, a group that's averaging over 42 points per game. Quarterback Jordan Travis doesn't seem to be receiving the Heisman attention that he received early on in the year, but he hasn't slowed down. Against Syracuse and Virginia Tech, the yardage numbers weren't gaudy, but he was in complete command in the pocket and picked apart both defenses. It helps that he has a tremendous 1-2 punch on the outside in Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman, plus do-it-all tight end Jaheim Bell. When you add in tailback Trey Benson running behind a deep and experienced offensive line, it's no wonder Florida State has been in such a groove offensively. Just as important, Mike Norvell has proven himself as one of the elite play-callers in the game. He has a superb understanding of his personnel now at Florida State and is a master tactician. It's going to be a real test for a Duke defense that has put up strong numbers, but simply doesn't have the talent that FSU boasts. Now, that doesn't mean they can't have success - they proved against Clemson that they could make the big plays when necessary and turn the tide of the game. But, Florida State is a better offense and now that we are deep into October, they won't experience the early-season jitters that doomed the Tigers.

All eyes will be on Leonard's status as we count down to kickoff, but even if he does return Duke is fighting an uphill battle. Florida State has been on an absolute tear all season long and seems focused on one goal: a National Title. That doesn't mean they are going to get caught in a trap game, either. Norvell will have his team prepared no matter who the starting QB is on the other side, and they should continue their winning ways.

The Pick: Florida State, 35 Duke, 21

Other Picks

(#14) Utah Utes @ (#18) USC Trojans -- The absolute last thing you want to do after coming off an ugly loss is play the Utah Utes. Few teams are as tough and disciplined as Kyle Whittingham's program and even with their offense struggling, I think they shut down Caleb Williams and company.

The Pick: Utah, 24 USC, 21

(#2) Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans -- Despite all the controversy surrounding Michigan following the news that broke earlier in the week, these two teams are far apart from each other on the field.

The Pick: Michigan, 42 Michigan State, 17

Clemson Tigers @ Miami Hurricanes -- What looked like it could be the ACC Championship Game preseason is now relegated to an unranked duel on the ACC Network. Yet, Clemson has been playing well since their slow start and seems to be the more balanced team on both sides.

The Pick: Clemson, 35 Miami, 26

Upset: (#13) Ole Miss Rebels @ Auburn Tigers -- Ole Miss may be 5-1, but no part of me believes this is the 13th best team in the country. They're certainly beatable and despite Auburn's struggles, this is a program always primed for an upset opportunity. 

The Pick: Auburn, 28 Ole Miss, 20

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Army (+32) @ LSU Tigers -- A strange matchup for late October, but a great opportunity for LSU to get back on track. With that being said, 32 is a big number and the triple-option's ability to drain the clock makes this pick feasible.

The Pick: LSU, 38 Army, 10

Lock of the Week: Iowa Hawkeyes (-3) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers -- As much as it pains me to lock against my Golden Gophers, Iowa has dominated this series for far too long. In fact, Minnesota hasn't won in Kinnick Stadium since 1999. 

The Pick: Iowa, 14 Minnesota, 10