College Football Picks 2024: Week Nine

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Current Picks Record: 39-23

Upsets: 3-5

Superdogs: 3-3

Locks: 2-5

(#8) LSU Tigers @ (#14) Texas A&M Aggies

Line: Texas A&M -2.5

O/U: 53.5

Although their resume has taken a slight hit with USC's continued struggles, LSU has played themselves into good position to make a College Football Playoff run as they prepare for the back-half of their schedule. Unfortunately, that back-half schedule includes three ranked foes, plus a trip to The Swamp to match up with Florida. First up is Texas A&M, who has also recovered in impressive fashion from a season-opening loss, quietly ripping off six straight victories under first-year head man Mike Elko.

For so long, LSU's offense was defined by their ground-and-pound, grinding style. But, multiple Heisman-winning quarterbacks later, this has become an offense all about the pass, with Garrett Nussmeier the latest player putting up big number under center. Nussmeier has come on and replaced Jayden Daniels without much of a drop-off, throwing for 2,222 yards and 18 touchdowns over their first seven contests. Turnovers have been a problem in recent weeks, with multi-pick games against South Alabama and Ole Miss, but the junior has still shown an excellent command of the offense, and his huge arm has made this Tiger aerial attack quite potent down the field. Of course, it helps that he is surrounded by weapons in this LSU offense, with the likes of Kyren Lacy, Aaron Anderson, and tight end Mason Taylor keeping defenses constantly on their toes. It's a group that not only continues to get better each and every week, but has the versatility to attack defenses in a variety of ways. With all that being said, I remain curious if we see LSU continue to attempt to bring some balance to this offense with their ground game. Caden Durham has been good when given the opportunity, rushing for over six yards per carry, but the Tigers often haven't had to lean on his services. That is, until last week, when he ran for over 100 yards against Arkansas on 21 carries. I suspect that had more to do with matchups than a shift in philosophy, and the Tigers don't have the clear edge in the trenches against Texas A&M they had against the Razorbacks. No, this has the looks of another game where LSU is going to look to air it out. It will be interesting to see how it goes - the Aggie pass defense has been strong all season, but they have legitimate NFL athletes up front to counter LSU's O-Line. We are going to learn a lot about both units in this one, and how they fare should tell us plenty about how things will go down the stretch.

Conner Weigman opened up his 2024 season with a rough showing in the loss to Notre Dame, going just 12-30 and throwing two interceptions in the eventual defeat. But after missing time due to injury, he's looked re-energized in his last two games against Missouri and Mississippi State, and seems to be entering this one with momentum. His two turnovers against Mississippi State may be of slight concern, but he faces an LSU defense that still struggles to defend the pass, despite their massive improvements across the board under new coordinator Blake Baker. That makes me think Colin Klein and the Aggies may be more aggressive throwing the ball than we have seen for much of the year, when they've leaned on Le'Veon Moss to fuel a methodical offense. Texas A&M doesn't have the athletes on the perimeter LSU features, but look for Noah Thomas and Cyrus Allen to still feature heavily, two players who are true deep threats. Moss will still get his fair share of touches, as will change-of-pace Amari Daniels, but this is a difficult LSU defense to run against. They're not only nasty on the defensive line, this is a superb linebacker corps that has become led by rising sophomore Whit Weeks, who already has 68 weeks tackle on the year. Between Weeks and veteran Greg Penn III, the Tigers have been much more creative with what they've been able to do on the year, and have the range in their linebacker corps necessary to play from sideline to sideline. Klein has had time to prepare and has done a fine job in his first year in College Station, but this is the most difficult test since Notre Dame, who flummoxed this A&M offense the entire way.

This time of year, it feels like so many of these big games are coin flips, and this one has the same energy. Both offenses are playing well, but they run into a pair of defenses playing arguably even better, especially considering LSU's defensive turnaround. Even with the passing attacks both can feature, I get the feeling this could be like the A&M-Notre Dame game in that it becomes a low-scoring slugfest. In many ways that favors the Aggies at home, but I remain confident in what LSU can do, and I like their chances to continue the positive momentum.

The Pick: LSU, 31 Texas A&M, 28

College Football Midseason Awards 2024

Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

It feels like just yesterday we were watching Florida State and Georgia Tech kick off the 2024 college football season in Dublin, Ireland, but the startling reality is that we are already at the midpoint of the fall. There's still plenty of exciting moments on the horizon but now that we've reached the halfway point, it's time for my annual "Midseason Awards", predicting the official and unofficial winners of some of the sport's most prestigious honors.

Projected National Champion: Texas Longhorns

Seven weeks into the season, many National Title frontrunners have already taken a loss - a list that now includes Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and the reigning National Champion, Michigan. Of course, the expanded College Football Playoff means these teams still have hope, but there will be little margin for error down the stretch. That's not the case for the Texas Longhorns, who remain undefeated and have built a solid resume through the first half of the season. With Quinn Ewers healthy and the defense playing at an elite level we haven't seen from Texas in some time, they seem like the clear favorite as of right now. However, the schedule does get trickier down the stretch, a true welcome to the SEC for the Longhorns. Georgia is this upcoming weekend, and Texas A&M still awaits, plus the possibility of the SEC Championship Game. Managing to stay undefeated may not be a reasonable goal, but the Longhorns should still remain one of the frontrunners to take it all home - for the first time since Vince Young and the 'Horns beat USC in 2005.

Others in Consideration: Oregon Ducks, Georgia Bulldogs, Alabama Crimson Tide, Penn State Nittany Lions, Ohio State Buckeyes, Miami Hurricanes

College Football Picks 2024: Week Seven

Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

Current Picks Record: 32-21

Upsets: 3-4

Superdogs: 2-3

(#2) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#3) Oregon Ducks

Line: Ohio State -3

O/U: 53.5

For the first time, Oregon and Ohio State are meeting as conference opponents, with both looking for a statement win to bolster their resume. Both sit at a perfect 5-0, but neither have been tested in the way they will be on Saturday. Whoever responds in the raucous environment of Autzen Stadium will decide who becomes the league favorite and heads into next weekend with a six in the win column.

The prevailing logic heading into the fall around Oregon was that their offense would not skip a beat, despite the departures of Bo Nix and Bucky Irving. Dillon Gabriel transferred in as a veteran quarterback with one of the most accomplished track records in recent college football memory, and had an abundance of weapons surrounding him and offensive coordinator Will Stein. Statistically, the Ducks have been impressive, putting up 35 points per contest, but it hasn't been the complete dominance most expected coming into the year. Gabriel has had some shaky moments, highlighted by two questionable red zone interceptions in their win over Michigan State last Friday, but their competition hasn't been able to take advantage. That is not going to be the case on Saturday - they face a Buckeye secondary that features superstar Caleb Downs and steady corner Denzel Burke, with ultra-versatile Sonny Styles also moving all over the field. Jim Knowles is a tactician at confusing and disrupting opposing offenses, and despite Gabriel's experience, he's been prone to shockingly bad throws. Fortunately, he'll have the support of a fabulous ground game, led by Jordan James, plus Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden out wide. Add in one of the nation's top line, one that has absolutely mauled their competition so far this fall, Oregon has all the ingredients to be a high-flying, unstoppable offense. It just feels like they're still fitting the pieces together in the right way, and the Buckeyes are quite the test. Beyond the secondary, a relentless front seven that includes future NFL Draftees like Jack Sawyer, J.T. Tuimoloau, and Ty Hamilton is a stiff challenge. Oregon is not going to be able to push around these guys like they have against the Michigan States and Oregon States of the world. How will they handle that adversity will tell us a lot about their chances not only in this one, but the rest of the season.

Ohio State has faced an even weaker slate up to this point in the year, although beating down an Iowa team that has given them troubles in the past was quite the exclamation point. The Buckeyes have looked a bit crisper than the Ducks, on both sides of the ball, but also seem to still be figuring things out as they reach the midway point of the regular season. Will Howard is certainly not the flashiest quarterback to ever start under center for the Buckeyes, but the rock-solid veteran has had no issues distributing the ball to the weapons Ohio State features on the perimeter, most notably Emeka Egbuka and freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes can pound with the best of them in much the way Oregon can, with Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson the most feared 1-2 punch in the country. Chip Kelly has taken a fairly conservative approach to his playcalling so far, leaning on their advantage in the trenches and taking the occasional deep shot when necessary. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a few tricks up his sleeve going up against the school he became a household name at - the Buckeyes are undoubtedly saving different plays and formations. The Duck defense does offer quite the challenge, but I'm not sure it's quite at the Ohio State level defensively. They are stout up front, but I do believe this is a team you can stretch vertically and hit the big play or two - we'll see how aggressive the Buckeyes choose to be.

This game is going to tell us a lot about both teams, as we simply don't know as much as we should about two teams that are both considered National Championship contenders. Oregon clearly retains an important advantage with Ohio State having to travel to Eugene, but their first five weeks have felt just a bit... underwhelming. Maybe it's a situation where they need the elevated competition to truly show what they're capable of, but the Buckeyes inspire much more confidence at this juncture. Even on the road, I like them to come out victorious.

The Pick: Ohio State, 31 Oregon, 27

College Football Picks 2024: Week Six

Marquis Johnson, Missouri

Current Picks Record: 28-16

Upsets: 2-3

Superdogs: 2-3

Locks: 1-4

(#9) Missouri Tigers @ (#25) Texas A&M Aggies

Line: Texas A&M -2.5

O/U: 48.5

Old Big 12 foes clash in the only ranked game of the weekend, with the ninth-ranked Missouri Tigers traveling to College Station to face Texas A&M. It hasn't always been a pretty start for Mike Elko and the Aggies, but they've done what they need to do over the course of a 4-1 start, while Missouri is looking to add a ranked win to their College Football Playoff resume.

The Texas A&M offense has looked a bit different than expected under first-year offensive coordinator Colin Klein, primarily because the person running it has been a new face in Marcel Reed. With Conner Weigman sidelined for a big chunk of the first month of the year, Reed has stepped in as starter and gone 3-0 as their quarterback. Weigman is listed as a game-time decision come Saturday, but something tells me it will be Reed out there in this one. With all due respect to Weigman, the offense has looked significantly better under Reed, and his rushing ability gives this Missouri defense something to worry about in a way they don't have to with Weigman. No matter who is starting quarterback, running the football will still be the name of the game for one of the top rushing attacks in the country. Le'Veon Moss has been a workhorse, and the change-of-pace ability of Amari Daniels, particularly combined with Reed's rushing, helps the Aggies ground-and-pound. A lot of credit should also go to an offensive line that has rolled with the punches so far in 2024, and looks like a much improved unit as they enter the weekend. It should set up an interesting battle against a Missouri defense that has looked surprisingly strong despite several major NFL defections in the offseason, not to mention the loss of coordinator Blake Baker to LSU. They've been very good against the pass, but will need to up their physicality and play with an edge in front of the raucous crowd of Kyle Field. 

Although the Tigers have to feel good about entering October 4-0, their last two games have left something to be desired. They won both, but got all they could handle from both Boston College and Vanderbilt, so there's clearly some work to be done. The offense has had no issues moving the ball, but has struggled to get it in for six when they've gotten in the red zone, leading to ample work for kicker Blake Craig, who already has 16 attempts on the young season. Quarterback Brady Cook has been good, but he needs more from a receiver corps that looked to be one of the best in all of the land entering the fall. That's not to say Missouri's receivers have been bad, but Luther Burden III and Mookie Cooper are much better than their stats may indicate. Marquis Johnson will also look to get more involved - the big-play threat in this offense last season, he's been held in check through the first five weeks. With Nate Noel having a strong start to the year out of the backfield, Missouri has been able to lean on the ground game, but the Aggies do present a challenge in that respect. This has long been a strong defensive front and they'll look to bring the heat consistently against Cook and company. How the Tigers handle the pressure and whether they are finally able to find the rhythm consistently through the air may make all the difference.

The Aggies enter this one more battle-tested and do get the Tigers at home, but I still like Missouri's chances to come in and pull off what is technically an upset. They have far too many offensive weapons to continue settling for field goals, and the A&M defense has lived and died off turnovers so far this fall. If Cook and company take care of the ball, I think they find a way to come out on top.

The Pick: Missouri, 34 Texas A&M, 24