Saturday, March 29, 2014

Elite Eight Predictions

South Region: 1 Florida vs. 11 Dayton
Shabazz Napier, UConn
The Cinderella of the tournament so far, the Dayton Flyers have taken down two college basketball powers in Ohio State and Syracuse and played very well against Stanford. Now, they get a huge task with the No. 1 overall seed, Florida, who hasn't lost since December 2nd and enters the game as a 10-point favorite. The Gators will rely heavily on the three-point shooting ability of sophomore guard Michael Frazier and senior swingman Casey Prather, who has a 61% field goal percentage. Florida is so dangerous on offense because they have four different players that average double-digit point totals in Prather, Frazier, Patric Young and senior Scottie Wilbekin. Archie Miller's Dayton squad has beat teams with up-tempo play and Ohio State transfer Jordan Sibert has been fantastic this tourney. Sibert had 18 against Stanford and has been a threat from deep all season long for the Flyers. Along with senior wing Devin Oliver (11.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG) Dayton has the offensive explosiveness to hang with the Gators. Florida has a stingy defense that has proven they can shut down some of the nation's best offenses and they definitely will need a great showing to tame the three-point shooters the Flyers will bring to the table. If Sibert and the rest of Dayton's offense gets hot they could definitely give Florida their first loss in nearly 5 months.
Florida, 78 Dayton, 73

West Region: 1 Arizona vs. 2 Wisconsin
In a tournament that has had it's fair share of upsets it is strange to see a 1 seed meet a 2 seed in the Elite Eight. The Wildcats may get their stiffest test they have gotten all year with Wisconsin, who has been dominant in all three of their tournament games, blowing out American, Oregon and then Baylor. They have counted on big man Frank Kaminsky all year and sophomore forward Sam Dekker, their two most consistent scoring options. Bo Ryan's teams always play great defense and this team will as well as they hope to shut down an Arizona team that is great in transition. Guards Nick Johnson and T.J. McConnell lead the way, though the 'Cats have really missed forward Brandon Ashley, who is out for the year. Ashley was a stretch four who opened the court for big man Kaleb Tarczewski and they haven't really found a replacement for him. The Badgers are going to be a tough team to beat because they play smart and are much deeper than most teams. Arizona's bench is a real liability and could help grant Wisconsin their 3rd Final Four appearance and first under Bo Ryan.
Wisconsin, 66 Arizona, 60

East Region: 4 Michigan State vs. 7 UConn
Despite getting all they can handle from Virginia last night, the Spartans survived and will get a dangerous Huskies team who snuck past Iowa State. Senior guard Shabazz Napier has been great all year for the Huskies, leading the team in points, assists and rebounds. But, the real reason for UConn's success this postseason has been because they have found other players to step up, mainly junior forward DeAndre Daniels, who dropped 27 against the Cyclones and also had 10 rebounds. Along with guard Ryan Boatright, the Huskies have the supporting cast to take down Michigan State, who is still the tourney favorite. Senior center Adreian Payne can hurt defenses in so many ways; he is strong and athletic in the low post and his mid range and three-point shooting ability adds another layer to his game. Along with Payne, a healthy Branden Dawson (24 points, 10 boards against Virginia) is a dangerous thing and sophomore Gary Harris' shooting will be much needed if UConn gets hot. The Huskies are an awfully dangerous team but Michigan State is just too good right now to lose to UConn.
Michigan State, 80 UConn, 70

Midwest Region: 2 Michigan vs. 8 Kentucky
After handing Wichita it's first loss of the year and then taking down Louisville, their intense in-state rival and reigning champs, Kentucky hopes to take down Michigan, who escaped dangerous Tennessee. The Wildcats are peaking at the right time and have made a run behind the play of fabulous forward Julius Randle and streaky shooter James Young. The Harrison twins, who have had their fair share of rough moments, are starting to find their groove and are running the Wildcats' offense well. The Wolverines, meanwhile, have one of the nation's most dangerous players in sophomore Nik Stauskas who can wreck teams when he gets the hot hand. Both teams are missing important big men, Mitch McGary for Michigan and Willie Cauley-Stein for Kentucky. That likely means this could be a three-point shootout and it is extremely difficult to try to outdo the Wolverines from downtown. Kentucky is peaking at the right time but their run will come to an end if they can't stop Stauskas and somebody else steps up for Michigan, like Caris LaVert or Glenn Robinson.
Michigan, 76 Kentucky, 68

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Bracket Analysis: Midwest Region

Fred VanVleet
A year removed from their stunning Final Four run, Wichita State went 34-0 and dominated the weak
Missouri Valley Conference. Of course, their are plenty that doubt the Shockers, whose only real notable wins are against St. Louis and Tennessee. The Shockers are a fundamentally gifted team who plays smart, plays great defense and rebound the ball very well. Their star is senior Cleanthony Early, who had a dominant tourney last season. Early, a gifted forward, averages 15.8 PPG and nearly six boards a game and is a load to handle in the paint. Along with sharpshooting Ron Baker, a former walk-on and sophomore point guard Fred Van Vleet (5.3 assists per game) Wichita has the talent to still make some noise in the tourney. The Shockers will definitely get the chance to prove themselves, they find themselves in a Midwest Region that includes Kentucky, Louisville, St. Louis, Michigan and Duke, all teams that can make some noise. They should beat the winner of the Cal Poly/Texas Southern match up but things get difficult earlier when they get the winner of Kentucky and Kansas State.

Led by ACC Player of the Year T.J. Warren, the NC State Wolfpack looked great against Xavier in their First Four battle with the Musketeers. They managed a 15-point victory over Xavier and get St. Louis in their second round game, a team who has cooled down lately after a great start to the year (they have lost four of five). The Billikens, who are just 204th in the nation in points per game, rely heavily on defense, and that mentality starts with forward Dwayne Evans, a shot blocker in the middle. Senior guard Jordair Jett is a solid contributor who will score in a variety of ways and also has great court vision. Even with that the Billikens will get all they can handle from the Wolfpack. First Four teams have had a history of making tournament runs and NC State could be next with Warren and LSU transfer Ralston Turner. Even with the Musketeers' defense smothering Warren he still managed 25 points, making extremely tough shots. Even with a great Billikens' team don't be surprised if NC State makes some serious noise in the Midwest.

With all the interesting seeds that were handed out in this year's tournament (Louisville being a 4, NC State sneaking in, SMU not even making the field) maybe none surprised be more than UMass receiving a 6 seed. The Minutemen started off the year 16-1, with their lone loss being to Florida State, but then fell apart towards the end of the year. They finished up 24-8 this year and 10-6 inside the Atlantic 10, and received a 6 seed in their conference tournament. The A-10 is not a terrible conference but they should not have received that high of a seed after receiving that seed in the conference tourney. They can still hurt teams with senior guard Chaz Williams, who puts up 15.8 points per game and 7 assists per game. Unfortunately, the supporting cast surrounding Williams is relatively weak. Add to that the Minutemen will get an extremely tough second round game with the winner of Iowa/Tennessee. Although the Hawkeyes are struggling they still have fantastic talent with lethal shooter Roy Devyn Marble and solid big man Aaron White. The Vols have one of the nation's best dunkers in Jordan McRae and are extremely hot entering this game. No matter who wins that First Four game, they have a real shoot at taking down the Minutemen.

They might not have won the SEC tournament, but a lot of people, including me, were impressed by Kentucky's performance in it. The Wildcats beat LSU and Georgia along the way to the championship where they had a real chance at snapping the No. 1 Florida Gators' long winning streak. Forward Julius Randle has turned the ball over a lot at times and still lacks the general consistency of an elite player. He can score in mid range and has a number of moves around the basket. The Harrison twins have had their fair share of struggles but they seem to be figuring things out and they are the X-factors. No matter the talent around them, teams can't win much games if they don't have an effective point guard. If James Young gets hot from deep the 'Cats could definitely do some things. Though, they did quite the tough second round bid against a dangerous Kansas State team. Freshman guard Marcus Foster is a dangerous scorer who has a great three-point shot which spreads the floor for their big men inside, like junior forward Thomas Gipson. Kentucky has a rough road with K-State first and then a meeting with Wichita, who should give them all they can handle. Though, it is John Calipari and it is Kentucky and they shouldn't go out without a fight but a 16th Final Four may be a little out of reach.

The Selection Committee showed little respect to the American Athletic this past weekend when they ignored SMU, who was as high as No. 18 two weeks ago, threw down Memphis to a pretty surprising No. 8 seed and then gave Louisville, who received the No. 5 ranking in the final AP poll, a four seed. The defending champ, the Cardinals are trying to prove that the committee made a huge mistake as they hope to get to their third straight Final Four. Even though he can still drive you crazy with some of the shots he takes at times, Russ Smith has definitely matured and improved. His three-point shot has really improved and he has become a much better passer. Sophomore forward Montrezl Harrell has also been huge for the Cardinals and has stepped up to fill the void Chane Behanan left when he was dismissed from the team. Harrell averages 14.2 points and 8.2 rebounds per game and is a great defender. They will get the MAAC winner, the Manhattan Jaspers, in their first game. The Jaspers who are 25-7 this year are led by stud senior George Beamon, who is putting up 19.2 points per game this season. The Cardinals should get a win there but things will get tough after that in the "Region of Doom." They get will get the St. Louis/NC State winner and they could get Wichita later and maybe a Duke or Michigan even later.

Picking the Midwest
Second Round
1 Wichita over
16 Texas Southern (beats Cal Poly in First Round)

8 Kentucky over
9 Kansas State

4 Louisville over
13 Manhattan

12 NC State over
5 Saint Louis

11 Iowa (beats Tennessee in First Round) over
6 UMass

3 Duke over
14 Mercer

7 Texas over
10 Arizona State

2 Michigan over
15 Wofford

Third Round
1 Wichita over
8 Kentucky

4 Louisville over
12 NC State

3 Duke over
11 Iowa

2 Michigan over
7 Texas

Sweet 16
4 Louisville over
1 Wichita

3 Duke over
2 Michigan

3 Duke over 4 Louisville

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Bracket Analysis: West Region

Nick Johnson
Throughout much of the year, the Arizona Wildcats were sitting at No. 1 in the nation and managed to reel in a Pac-12 regular season title and No. 1 seed to finish it up. Junior guard Nick Johnson proved to be one of the best players in the nation this whole season, helping the Wildcats by putting up 16.2 points per game, while hitting 44% from the field. He is helped out in the backcourt by Duquesne transfer T.J. McConnell, the efficient leader who averages 5.5 assists every game and 3 assists to every turnover. Although the star power is there for the 'Cats with the help of athletic freshman Aaron Gordon, they haven't played the schedule that some other teams inside this region have. They did beat Duke and Michigan earlier in the year but did the Pac-12 really prepare them for what should be a tough region from the beginning? I don't know and Oklahoma State could be waiting in the third round, if they can beat Gonzaga.

For the first time since 1998, the Nebraska Cornhuskers are back in the Big Dance. The 'Huskers went 11-7 in the brutal Big Ten, beating Michigan State on the road and beating both Wisconsin and Ohio State. They ended up getting an 11 seed and will get old Big 12 rival Baylor, in what is a popular upset pick. The Bears will present sharpshooting Brady Heslip, guard Kenny Cherry and big man Isaiah Austin but the 'Huskers actually have the talent to pull off the victory. Big Ten Coach of the Year Tim Miles will bring a team that has a dominant scorer in sophomore guard/forward Terran Petteway (18.1 PPG)  and a team with depth and great defenders. Every team in the Big Ten should be prepared for the NCAA tournament because the conference's style of constant rough play. If the Cornhuskers can upset the Bears it would most likely set up a meeting with Doug McDermott and Creighton, an in-state rival.

It has been a crazy year for Oklahoma State and star Marcus Smart, who may be regretting his decision to return for his sophomore season. The Cowboys, who started as a popular favorite to challenge Kansas for a Big 12 title, lost eight of nine in a stretch that spanned from January 18th to February 18th. The Cowboys ended up as a 9 seed and are a dark horse in this region. Along with Smart, who can be dominant at times, Oklahoma State has a streaky shooter in sophomore guard Phil Forte and do-it-all senior Markel Brown. Brown is known mainly for his highlight dunks but he has a ton of substance to his game, he is a great rebounder and has a solid mid range game. If Smart plays to his potential and he gets just enough from his supporting cast the Cowboys should handle Gonzaga in their first game. If Smart plays well an upset of Arizona and even more could be a legit possibility for Travis Ford's team.

Lon Kruger teams tend to be dangerous in March and this year his Oklahoma Sooners are a five seed and hope to use their shooting to make a tournament run. Unfortunately, the Sooners get quite the tough first game against North Dakota State, the Summit League champions. Senior guard Taylor Braun is the stud for the Bison, he averages 18.2 PPG, 5.5 rebounds per game and nearly four assists as well. Senior forward Marshall Bjorklund is an efficient option underneath for the Bison and will also be counted on to helped NDSU stop Oklahoma's Ryan Spangler, who is a load to handle underneath. North Dakota State shoots the ball at an impressive clip, they lead the nation in field goal percentage with nearly 51 percent each game. Oklahoma has some dangerous shooters in Cameron Clark and Buddy Hield but don't be surprised if the gifted Bison pull off the upset.

The fact that BYU received a 10 seed surprised me and they should get a very tough test against Oregon, who will attempt to run the Cougars out of the game in transition. The Cougars went 23-11 this year and 13-5 inside a pretty weak West Coast Conference but lost their second-leading scorer in sophomore Kyle Collinsworth in the WCC Championship game. They still have an interesting dangerous offense that has Tyler Haws, a junior guard that puts up 23.4 points per game. The Ducks' defense has been pretty spotty all year but they have quite the scorer in Houston transfer Joseph Young, who is still a Wooden Award candidate. Oregon beat BYU earlier in the year but freshman center Erik Mika has definitely improved for the Cougars. It should be a back-and-forth game but BYU might prove that the 10 seed was a little high for them.

Picking the West
Second Round
1 Arizona over
16 Weber State

9 Oklahoma State over
8 Gonzaga

4 San Diego State over
13 New Mexico State

12 North Dakota State over
5 Oklahoma

11 Nebraska over
6 Baylor

3 Creighton over
14 Louisiana-Lafayette

7 Oregon over
10 BYU

2 Wisconsin over
15 American

Third Round
9 Oklahoma State over
1 Arizona

4 San Diego State over
12 North Dakota State

3 Creighton over
11 Nebraska

2 Wisconsin over
7 Oregon

Sweet 16
9 Oklahoma State over
4 San Diego State

2 Wisconsin over
3 Creighton

2 Wisconsin over 9 Oklahoma State

Bracket Analysis: East Region

After a fantastic year that included an ACC regular season title and a conference championship, the
Akil Mitchell
Virginia Cavaliers received a No.1 seed in the East. The Cavs are going to be an extremely tough out for anybody because they play hard, they can defend, they rebound very well and they don't rely on one particular star to get the job done for them. If one player was your top priority it would probably be senior sharpshooter Joe Harris who averages 11.7 points per game and shoots 40% from downtown. Along with sophomore guard Malcolm Brogdon (12.6 points, 5.6 rebounds per game) and senior Akil Mitchell, Virginia has the talent to do something in the tournament, although they get a tough game early against Michigan State in the Sweet 16, assuming they get there.

Matchups between 5 and 12 seeds are extremely common and this region may have the most likely as Cincinnati hopes to avoid an upset to the Ivy League champs, the Harvard Crimson. Sophomore point guard Siyani Chambers is one of the most exciting players in the nation, the way he runs the offense. He isn't that dangerous of a shooter but he gets to the rim and his vision helps make the offense extremely effective. Senior forward Kyle Casey is a load to handle in the paint and Harvard possesses a dangerous scorer in junior wing Wesley Saunders, who puts up 14 points per game. According to ESPN Stats and Info, the Crimson have a 41 percent shot at taking down the Bearcats, something they could definitely do, especially if they contain senior Sean Kilpatrick.

Although Villanova went 28-4 this year, 16-2 inside the Big East and beat Kansas and Iowa along the way, many have them ditching out early. The Wildcats might have only lost two games inside the Big East all year, but they were both blowout losses to Creighton, in which the 'Nova defense looked terrible. Villanova has relied heavily on senior James Bell and junior Darrun Hilliard, their best three-point shooter, but their offense can look pretty pedestrian at times. Milwaukee should be a win but a meeting with the winner of St.Joe's and old Big East rival UConn could give the 'Cats an awfully early challenge. Plus, they're undersized inside and not as deep as some of the other elite teams in the nation which should cost them when the get deeper in the tournament.

Overlooking George Wasington would not be wise. Whenever their name is put out there is usually a "who?" involved but the Colonials have had a great year in the Atlantic 10 and will be playing in their first tournament since 2007 when they lost as an 11 seed to Vanderbilt. The Colonials have two great fifth-year transfers in Maurice Creek, a dangerous shooter from Indiana, and swingman Isaiah Armwood, who is from Villanova. Creek, who averages 14.3 points per game can hurt teams from deep and has the size to attack the rim and finish through contact. Sophomore guard Kethan Savage isn't a shooter but he is deceptively quick and can also get to the basket. George Washington has beat Creighton, Maryland and Georgia this year and although Memphis is a tough draw in their first game, the Colonials could surprise some people.

It finally appears like Michigan State is finally completely healthy and that has led many to pick them as the favorite in the field. Seniors Adreian Payne and Keith Appling are ready to lead the Spartans after was has been a rollercoaster of a year. Michigan State's victories over Wisconsin and Michigan were very impressive and they have court-stretchers to beat teams. They will need Payne to play to his potential in the paint and Gary Harris to prove who lethal of a scorer that he can be. They will get Delaware, the CAA winner, in the second round before a meeting with the winner of Harvard or Cincy. The East is a favorable region for the Spartans, who are always threats in March because their Big Ten schedule helps prepare them for the tourney. If they continue to stay healthy, they can easily come out of the East and beat Florida in the Final Four.

Picking the East
Second Round
1 Virginia over
16 Coastal Carolina

9 George Washington over
8 Memphis

12 Harvard over
5 Cincinnati

4 Michigan State over
13 Delaware

6 UNC over
11 Providence

3 Iowa State over
14 North Carolina Central

7 UConn over
10 St. Joe's

2 Villanova over
15 UW-Milwaukee

Third Round
1 Virginia over
9 George Washington

4 Michigan State over
12 Harvard

3 Iowa State over
6 UNC

2 Villanova over
7 UConn

Sweet 16
4 Michigan State over
1 Virginia

3 Iowa State over
2 Villanova

4 Michigan State over 3 Iowa State

Monday, March 17, 2014

Bracket Analysis: South Region

Casey Prather
Florida received the No.1 overall seed after a fantastic year in which they went 32-2 and won the SEC regular season title and conference tournament. The last time the Gators received the No. 1 seed was back in 2007 when the Florida dynasty that included Joakim Noah and Corey Brewer won their second straight title. The Gators are going to be very difficult to beat; they have four seniors, Patric Young, Casey Prather, Scottie Wilbekin and Will Yeguete and have the size to dominate teams. They haven't lost since December 2nd against UConn and that was without stud freshman Chris Walker and Wilbekin's future in Gainesville in question. They shouldn't get a tough enough of a test until the Elite Eight when it is likely they get the winner of Kansas/Syracuse.

Stephen F. Austin deserves your respect. The Lumberjacks are 31-2 and have won 28 straight games and can run up and down the court. They drew the 12 seed and will get VCU in the second round which will give them an awfully tough test. Shaka Smart has proven his "Havoc" defense can pull upsets but don't be surprised if the Lumberjacks stick in this one and even pull an upset.

A couple of weeks ago Kansas looked like a number one seed, before center Joel Embiid had back issues and had to miss a couple games. He is likely to miss their first meeting against Eastern Kentucky, who stunned Belmont to win the Ohio Valley, and possibly their next against an upset ready New Mexico team or Dwight Powell and Stanford, who is finally back in the Field of 68. The Jayhawks struggled earlier in the year, which made sense considering they are so young, but they have the talent to make a run. Even if Embiid misses some time, Andrew Wiggins has turned into a more aggressive option and it has resulted in him being a reliable offensive option and sophomore forward Perry Ellis is one of the most underrated players in the nation. Kansas had a brutal schedule out of the conference and the Big 12 did a great job in preparing them for what the rigorous tournament will have to offer. The only question may be their point guard play, where I'm not confident in junior's Naadir Tharpe can lead them to a Final Four.

Tulsa has taken major steps under former Kansas star Danny Manning in his first two years and they used sophomore guard James Woodard to win the Conference USA and finish on an 11-game winning streak. Woodard, who puts up 15.7 points per game and 5.8 rebounds is a streaky shooter who is great off the dribble as well. The Golden Hurricane get UCLA in the second round after being given the 13 seed. 20 years ago, Tulsa pulled off a huge upset when they beat the Bruins in the 1994 NCAA tournament. The Bruins have talented point guard Kyle Anderson running the show and have great depth. They shouldn't overlook this Golden Hurricane team who hasn't played in the tourney since 2002-2003 and comes into this game with nothing to lose.

Colorado's year took a huge hit when they lost their star scorer Spencer Dinwiddie for the year due to an ACL injury. Even without him the Buffaloes still received their third straight NCAA tournament bid after going 23-11 and finishing up 3rd inside the Pac-12. Now they get a real test against the No. 9 seed Pittsburgh in the second round. Jamie Dixon's teams always play hard and play defense and this year's Panthers have a dangerous scorer in Lamar Patterson and have proven they can shut down top-flight scorers. They will need to stop sophomore forward Josh Scott who has really stepped up in Dinwiddie's absence. Scott is a monster on the glass, averaging 8.5 boards per game and is always around the ball. If they can stop Patterson and Askia Booker steps up on the perimeter the Buffs could make some noise and possibly give Florida some issues in the third round.

Picking the South
Second Round
1 Florida over
16 Mt.St.Mary's/Albany

9 Pittsburgh over
8 Colorado

12 Stephen F. Austin over
5 VCU

13 Tulsa over
4 UCLA

6 Ohio State over
11 Dayton

3 Syracuse over
14 Western Michigan

7 New Mexico over
10 Stanford

2 Kansas over
15 Eastern Kentucky

Third Round
1 Florida over
9 Pittsburgh

12 Stephen F. Austin over
13 Tulsa

3 Syracuse over
6 Ohio State

2 Kansas over
7 New Mexico

Sweet 16
1 Florida over
12 Stephen F. Austin

2 Kansas over Syracuse

1 Florida over 2 Kansas

Thursday, March 13, 2014

College Basketball Awards

Although the college basketball awards were already handed out in 2013-2014 for most conferences it is my time to unveil all the important awards inside the conferences and nationally. Without further ado:

National
Player of the Year: Doug McDermott, Creighton
Freshman of the Year: Andrew Wiggins, Kansas
Coach of the Year: Gregg Marshall, Wichita State
Most Surprising Team: Villanova
Most Disappointing Team: Kentucky

ACC
Player of the Year: T.J. Warren, NC State
Freshman of the Year: Jabari Parker, Duke
Transfer of the Year: Rodney Hood, Duke
Coach of the Year: Tony Bennett
Most Surprising Team: Virginia
Most Disappointing Team: Notre Dame

American Athletic
Player of the Year: Shabazz Napier, UConn
Freshman of the Year: Austin Nichols, Memphis
Transfer of the Year: Michael Dixon, Memphis
Coach of the Year: Larry Brown, SMU
Most Surprising Team: SMU
Most Disappointing Team: Memphis

Big East
Player of the Year: Doug McDermott, Creighton
Freshman of the Year: Rysheed Jordan, St. John's
Transfer of the Year: None
Coach of the Year: Jay Wright
Most Surprising Team: Villanova
Most Disappointing Team: Marquette

Big Ten
Player of the Year: Nik Stauskas, Michigan
Freshman of the Year: Noah Vonleh, Indiana
Transfer of the Year: Rayvonte Rice, Illinois

DeAndre Kane
Coach of the Year: Tim Miles, NebraskaMost Surprising Team: Nebraska
Most Disappointing Team: Michigan State

Big 12
Player of the Year: Melvin Ejim, Iowa State
Freshman of the Year: Andrew Wiggins, Kansas
Transfer of the Year: DeAndre Kane, Iowa State
Coach of the Year: Rick Barnes, Texas
Most Surprising Team: Texas
Most Disappointing Team: Baylor

Pac-12
Player of the Year: Nick Johnson, Arizona
Freshman of the Year: Aaron Gordon, Arizona
Transfer of the Year: Delon Wright, Utah
Coach of the Year: Sean Miller, Arizona
Most Surprising Team: Arizona State
Most Disappointing Team: UCLA

SEC
Player of the Year: Casey Prather, Florida
Freshman of the Year: Julius Randle, Kentucky
Transfer of the Year: Jordan Clarkson, Missouri
Coach of the Year: Billy Donovan, Florida
Most Surprising Team: Arkansas
Most Disappointing Team: Kentucky

Sunday, March 9, 2014

Conference Tournament: ACC

Trevor Cooney
The ACC has been a crazy conference this year, Syracuse emerging at first and Duke and UNC coming up late with Virginia consistently being the best team throughout conference play. Now, the conference tournament is likely to be extremely exciting and could go to anyone.

Bubble Teams: Florida State sits on the outside looking in for the NCAA tournament but an impressive conference tournament will help. Clemson has been surprising this year and is 10-8 inside the conference but looks to be an NIT team.

First Round:
12 Georgia Tech 67
13 Notre Dame 71
It has been a rough year in South Bend for Mike Brey and the Fighting Irish where injuries have really ruined their year. Senior guard Eric Atkins could still lead them to a big first round victory.

10 Miami 68
15 Virginia Tech 61
A Hokies' team that went 2-16 in conference play this year will try to figure things out in a hurry against a Miami team who has never really figured out their offense this season. Senior Rion Brown is the only consistent threat for the 'Canes and will be counted on to get them a win.

11 Wake Forest 65
14 Boston College 57
Boston College pulled off the biggest upset of the year when they stunned Syracuse but they haven't done much other than that inside the ACC. Wake is the better team than the Eagles but if they don't stop Oliver Hanlan they could struggle.

Second Round:

8 Maryland 70
9 NC State 73
The most underrated player in the ACC, sophomore T.J. Warren, will hope to lead the Wolfpack to a victory over Dez Wells and an inconsistent Terps squad. The talented but young backcourt for the Wolfpack should decide this matchup.

5 Pittsburgh 75
13 Notre Dame 65
The only way that the Irish come away with the upset here is if they shut down do-it-all Lamar Patterson. Patterson, who is putting up 17.6 points per game and 4.5 assists should be enough to guide the Panthers on.

7 Florida State 68
10 Miami 66
Florida State will hope to drown the 'Canes after a rough loss last time the teams met. Sophomore guard Aaron Thomas, their leading scorer, will be leaned on. The Seminoles need somebody to step up and handle Miami big man Tonye Jekiri who is a load to handle in the paint.

6 Clemson 66
11 Wake Forest 60
Junior forward K.J. McDaniels will try to lead a dangerous Tigers' team who looks to make a run before their first postseason bid since 2010-2011. Clemson doesn't score much but they play defense and are fundamentally sound.

Quarterfinals:

1 Virginia 79
9 NC State 64
The Cavaliers put together a great year, going 16-2 inside the tough ACC and beating Duke and Syracuse along the way. Senior forward Akil Mitchell is a force in the paint and senior sharpshooter Joe Harris should stretch the NC State defense thin.

4 UNC 81
5 Pittsburgh 77
The Tar Heels were putting together an impressive 12 game win streak before a tough rivalry loss to Duke but they should still have a ton of momentum heading into this one. Sophomore guard Marcus Paige should guide the Tar Heels and the depth of UNC is tough to handle.

2 Syracuse 72
7 Florida State 61
Great three-point shooting can kill the Orange's zone but Florida State has lacked consistency from downtown. If the Orange are to make a deep ACC tournament run they need guards Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney to find their form again.

3 Duke 76
6 Clemson 75
Few teams can match the Blue Devils' offense when Jabari Parker is aggressive and Rodney Hood is on his game. Clemson has a real shot at this one if McDaniels has a big game and if they can hold back the dangerous three-point shooters that Duke has.

Semifinals:
1 Virginia 68
4 UNC 71
This meeting could all depend on what goes on around the basket. Both these teams can beat teams down low and whoever performs better should sneak outa win. If Paige plays well and somebody else steps up the Heels should find themselves in the conference championship.

2 Syracuse 82
3 Duke 78
The first two meetings between these teams have been fantastic and this third one could be even better. The Orange have really cooled down but C.J. Fair is still a dangerous scorer and Ennis plays better in big games. Duke really lacks a big man to counter Baye Keita and Rakeem Christmas underneath.

Championship:
4 UNC 67
2 Syracuse 64
These two teams might be the deepest inside the ACC and both have players that can dominate when they get hot. Junior James Michael McAdoo has started to figure out his game and should be a force.

ACC Winner: UNC 
It is amazing how much different this team has looked since their 11-7 start. Their 12 game win streak has proven they have found a number of guys that contribute on the scoreboard, they make better decisions and play strong defense.




Thursday, March 6, 2014

Conference Tournament: AAC

The college basketball regular season is nearly over and that means one thing:
Shaq Goodwin
March Madness is nearly here. But, we still have a week and a half until Selection Sunday and a number of bubble teams need strong conference tournament outputs to sneak into the Field of 68. The new-look American Athletic Conference has been solid this year and has seen a real surprise in Larry Brown's SMU while Louisville, Cincinnati and Memphis still look like the teams to beat.

Bubble Teams: None, every single tournament team appears to be set: SMU, Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati and UConn to the Big Dance. Houston may be able to see the NIT or another postseason tourney.

First Round:
8 UCF 79
9 South Florida 71
The only hope for the Golden Knights to make a run in this tournament is a huge set of games from do-it-all senior Isaiah Sykes, who leads the team in points, rebounds and assists per game. It should be enough to drown the Bulls who have one of the worst offenses in the entire nation.

7 Rutgers 65
10 Temple 60
Fran Dunphry's Owls are having a terrible year in their first out of the Atlantic 10 and things won't get easier against Myles Mack and the Knights who are a much deeper team.

Quarterfinals:
4 SMU 70
5 Memphis 76
A few years ago it would have been pretty tough to imagine the Mustangs putting together this type of year. Against Joe Jackson, sophomore Shaq Goodwin and old Conference USA foe Memphis they should get a pre-NCAA tournament wake up call.

1 Louisville 82
8 UCF 66
Despite flu problems this whole week Russ Smith dominated SMU last night and the Golden Knights have nothing to counter sophomore Montrezl Harrell with inside.

2 Cincinnati 67
7 Rutgers 59
Outside of Sean Kilpatrick the Bearcats don't have much star power but they win on grit and tough defense. Rutgers gets a lot of garbage points; they shouldn't against Cincy in this one.

3 UConn 74
6 Houston 64
The Cougars have put together a solid year in their first out of the C-USA, thanks in large part to junior forward TaShawn Thomas (15.8 points per game, 8.2 rebounds per game). But, a spotty defense will be pounded against Shabazz Napier who looks for a big finale in his last couple conference games with the Huskies.

Semifinals:
1 Louisville 76
5 Memphis 80
The Cards were surprisingly swept in the season series of this matchup and will have all they can get from the Tigers. Memphis will need a big day off the bench from Michael Dixon and freshman Austin Nichols to stay out of foul trouble to take down Louisville.

2 Cincinnati 55
3 UConn 60
Mick Cronin's Bearcats played terrible in their last meeting with UConn, failing to show much competition. Unless they can find another shooter with Kilpatrick and stop Napier they could fall here.

Championship:
5 Memphis 69
3 UConn 74
Could Napier have a Kemba Walker moment here? Lead this Huskies to a big tournament win and dominate while doing so? Maybe, but he needs help from DeAndre Daniels and an inconsistent frontcourt to get the job done.

AAC Winner: UConn
The Huskies have had a pretty consistent year in the AAC but they have yet to really break through. Napier, Daniels, Ryan Boatright and Omar Calhoun, it is there time to make a statement in the AAC's inaugural conference tourney.

Note: All seeds projected none are concrete yet.
Bracket
Standings









   

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Is Michigan State Falling Apart?

Before the year began Kentucky and Michigan State were the two most popular picks to win the
Branden Dawson
national title. Now, Kentucky is 21-8 and barely sticking inside the Top 25 and the Spartans sit at 22-7 and 22nd in the nation. The Spartans' struggles have been extremely surprising for a team that is experienced and has the talent to be one of the best inside the nation. Is Michigan State just suffering through a rough stretch (4-6 in their last ten after their 18-1 start) or is this team not a contender any more?

Injuries have really hurt what looked like a very promising year for the Spartans, who had wins over Kentucky, Oklahoma, Texas and Ohio State in that 18-1 start. They lost senior big man Adreian Payne for a significant amount of time and have also seen injuries to forward Branden Dawson and senior point guard Keith Appling. In fact, nearly everybody on this Spartans' roster has seen some type of ailment it seems. But, they are starting to finally get healthy with Payne and Appling back and Dawson also working his way back. It seemed so easy to say that Michigan State was just injured and they would be very dangerous when healthy but they haven't. An offense that looked very scary when Payne and Appling were healthy and sophomore sharpshooter Gary Harris was on his game, has looked tamed lately. On Saturday the Spartans' offense had a serious low, managing just 46 points against a pretty weak Illinois team. Tom Izzo's team are known for being smart with the ball and making the right decisions. But, against Illinois they surrendered 16 turnovers, 5 by sophomore Denzel Valentine and they also shot an embarrassingly low 34 percent from the field and 5 for 23 from deep in a rough home loss to Nebraska.

It was been a rough year for Michigan State, swept by arch rival Michigan and losing to the Cornhuskers and Fighting Illini at home. But, they could change that with a strong end to the season and a run in March which is what Spartans' fans expected before the year began. The rough part is that they don't have much more time to gel before March Madness. A home meeting with dangerous Iowa and a difficult Ohio State team on the road will complete their regular season and the Big Ten tournament is brutal on teams that are not prepared. Injuries have been very tough because they have cost these players precious minutes that other players have had. When players don't have those minutes it can hurt their chemistry and can effect them in March. Plus, they haven't really had an opportunity to properly heal and get the rest they need. Once the Big Ten season begins it is a constant, brutal stretch and if you aren't healthy it so tough to get healthy.

It is tough to tell whether or not the Spartans are falling apart or they have just hit a rough stretch, which every team likely will see sometime throughout a year. The next two games will be very important in telling us exactly what this team will look like through the rest of the year. Iowa also has struggled lately and Ohio State has never been able to regain their form since starting Big Ten play. Michigan State has all the pieces in place to still make a run, no matter the seed they receive this tournament. They have size inside with Adreian Payne and Matt Costello and they have shooters with Travis Trice and Harris. They have more experience than most others in the nation and a coach who knows how to win in March. But, things are just not flowing on this Spartans team; they have really struggled from downtown and are making mistakes they weren't making when the year began. Maybe when they become completely healthy things will change but even then it is tough to make a quick change this late in the year.

It is well known that any player that has played four years under Tom Izzo has gone to at least one Final Four in their time in East Lansing. Early in the year this looked to be a real possibility but this rough stretch has raised questions. Adreian Payne and Keith Appling are the seniors on this team and they are yet to reach a Final Four which may provide some much needed motivation. But, unless they can find some more offensive punch and figure out their offense down the stretch that little streak could definitely be coming to an end.

Saturday, March 1, 2014

What Is Wrong with Kentucky?

It is starting to seem like a long time ago that Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and a group of
James Young
star Wildcats pounded Thomas Robinson and the Kansas Jayhawks to win John Calipari's first national championship. It is extremely difficult to remember Calipari's first two years before that championship year, when the Wildcats went to the Elite Eight and Final Four. What isn't hard to remember is Kentucky's embarrassing loss to Robert Morris in the NIT last year. The 'Cats hoped to put 2012-2013 behind them, in a year where they went 21-12, missed the NCAA tournament and were stunned by Robert Morris. This year, things looked different with the best recruiting class in history, when Kentucky brought in forward Julius Randle, the Harrison twins, James Young and big men Dakari Johnson and Marcus Lee. Along with sophomores Willie Cauley-Stein and Alex Poythress the Wildcats received the preseason No. 1 overall ranking. Now the Wildcats sit at 21-8 after a loss to 11-18 South Carolina, who sits at 13th in the weak SEC. Why, after three years of massive success are the 'Cats suddenly having real issues, despite the talent level extremely high in Lexington?

Chemistry plays a big role on teams and Kentucky really hasn't had it and the past couple of seasons. It makes sense, considering the fact the Wildcats are trying to blend a group of players who have never played with each other before on to one team. The one-and-done approach is one that Calipari used at Memphis and has used with Kentucky and it is a smart idea; picking up a number of high talents for a year and then casting them off to the NBA. But, these guys don't know how the others play and how to work well without each other before they leave to the NBA.

On paper, this Kentucky team may be the most impressive in the entire nation. Julius Randle already has a pretty polished offensive game, with a good mid range and the strength to get to the rim. The Harrison twins have great size for guards, standing at 6'5" both and also do a great job of getting into the teeth of the defense. James Young is a great shooter, Dakari Johnson is a powerful big man and Marcus Lee is a great shot blocker. But, all of those things just haven't blended into a winning formula for Kentucky. The Harrison twins were expected to be the guards that Calipari didn't have on last year's team; they were supposed to be smart, run the offense and score, something Ryan Harrow never did consistently in 2012-2013. But, their shooting has proven to be a real issue, Andrew is shooting 37% from the field, while Aaron is hitting on just 31% from deep. Randle has proven to be a quality low post scorer, averaging 15.7 points per game and 10.3 rebounds per game. But, he can turn the ball over often and defensively isn't very consistent. Young is streaky; he can take over games at times but lacks the consistency great shooters need. Overall, depth is a concern, South Carolina and Arkansas managed to really beat Kentucky in the second half when the bench really starts to show which is really surprising. Experience has just killed Kentucky at times this year, which is also something to expect with this young of a team. Adjusting to the college game can be difficult and the Wildcats really never got that much time to adjust before their big matchup in the Champions Classic with Michigan State. It is tough playing in a big-time conference like the SEC and playing in packed stadiums often when you are a team of 19-year-olds.

The Wildcats are 21-8 and 17th in the nation, but are likely to drop with two losses this week. They will end their season with a beatable Alabama team at home and then end things with the top-ranked Gators who they played pretty well against in their first matchup of the year two weeks ago. It appears the Wildcats are pretty safely entrenched in the Field of 68 but momentum is huge entering the Big Dance and struggling before it is not a good thing. Time is usually a good remedy for a young team but they desperately need another scorer to step up beyond Randle like one of the Harrison twins or Willie Cauley-Stein to quickly evolve into an offensive option, if he stays healthy. It has been a pretty disappointing year in Lexington but they could still end it on a high note if they can figure things out very quickly. A team that was talking about going undefeated before the year began, the Wildcats look to be in about the six seed range. Teams that can shoot are very dangerous in March and although they have been very inconsistent from downtown if the Wildcats find some range they could still make a run and make Big Blue Nation forget about what has been a rollercoaster of a season.