Monday, February 26, 2024

Big Ten Power Rankings 2023-24: Edition 4

Tyson Walker, Michigan State

* Records updated through morning of 2/25/2024

1. Purdue Boilermakers (24-3 overall, 13-3 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 1

As the rest of the conference has beat up on each other, the Purdue Boilermakers have stayed above the fray and are in position to land their second consecutive No. 1 seed. A shocking loss on the road to Ohio State aside, the Boilermakers have been a model of consistency, despite getting the best from every Big Ten foe on a given night. As they prepare for their final set of league games and the upcoming Big Ten Tournament, it will be interesting to see how Matt Painter chooses to play it. Does he cut back minutes for Zach Edey and their other stars to keep them fresh down the stretch? Or, do the Boilermakers keep the foot on the gas pedal? The final three games of the regular season are arguably the toughest stretch of the season, with Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Illinois, providing plenty of tune-up opportunities ahead of the postseason.

2. Illinois Fighting Illini (19-7 overall, 10-5 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 3

For as frustrating as last week's heartbreaking loss on the road to Penn State was, Illinois remains a serious threat to win the conference tournament and do damage come March. They are led by one of the most explosive offenses in the Big Ten, particularly with Terrance Shannon Jr. back in action, but finding a semblance of defense will be the key for Brad Underwood's club down the stretch. Coleman Hawkins is the type of defensive anchor they need, but the perimeter defense needs to be better, especially as they look to a final set of four games that includes strong three-point shooting teams Iowa, Purdue, and Wisconsin.

3. Northwestern Wildcats (19-8 overall, 10-6 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 5

Since a frustrating pair of road losses to Purdue and Minnesota, Northwestern has kicked it into another gear, with four victories in their last five. Even their lone defeat could be considered a quality one, coming on the road to a suddenly flaming hot Rutgers team. The Wildcats now find themselves firmly in the NCAA Tournament field, poised to make their first back-to-back trips in program history, and are looking to secure the double bye ahead of the Big Ten Tournament. It's a great spot to be for Chris Collins and company, and even better news? Their final four regular season games are all winnable, even if road trips to Maryland and Michigan State appear perilous, meaning the Wildcats could continue to climb in the seed line as Selection Sunday nears.

4. Wisconsin Badgers (18-9 overall, 10-6 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 2

Through the Big Ten season's first month, Wisconsin appeared ready to go neck-to-neck with Purdue for the conference crown. Unfortunately, February has not been kind to the Badgers, with losses in their last six and sending them reeling heading into the most important part of the season. It's not just one thing causing Wisconsin's back-slide, but offensive woes have been at the heart of it, as they've managed to surpass the 70-point threshold just twice in their last seven. Can Max Klesmit get back on track after a January to remember has been followed up by an underwhelming February? Is there another level veterans like Tyler Wahl and Chucky Hepburn can reach? The Badgers still have a roster that can go deep in March, but they are running out of time to get things back on track, and Purdue and Illinois await on their remaining regular season schedule.

5. Nebraska Cornhuskers (19-8 overall, 9-7 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 4

Fred Hoiberg's Cornhuskers continue to take care of business, winning their last three games after a tiny two-game road skid in early February. None of the three wins will likely move the needle in a major way when it comes to Nebraska's NCAA Tournament hopes, but have been important in showcasing improved consistency from a team that had an unfortunate habit of playing down to their opponents earlier in the season. Not a single ranked team remains on the regular season schedule - while that may hurt the 'Husker's Big Dance hopes, they've already built a strong resume to this point, buoyed by victories over Purdue and Wisconsin. 

6. Michigan State Spartans (17-10 overall, 9-7 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 7

The same old script continues to repeat itself in East Lansing. The Spartans have pushed past their early season woes, and have been arguably the Big Ten's top team not named Purdue over the last month. That evolution doesn't come as much of a surprise - Tom Izzo teams always take their lumps early on, and this roster is far too talented and experienced to have been down for long. Still, a loss to Iowa at home earlier in the week showed there is still work to be done for Michigan State. The Spartans didn't even play particularly bad, it was more of the Hawkeyes shooting lights out, but this MSU team is set to see more difficult opponents down the stretch as they gear up for an NCAA Tournament run. In order to do just that, the Spartans are going to need more from their bigs, namely Maddy Sissoko - as elite of the guards on this roster are, keeping pace in the paint may end up being the X-factor.

7. Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-9 overall, 8-7 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 6

A buttery soft non-conference schedule aside, the Minnesota Golden Gophers have been one of the better stories anywhere in college basketball this winter. After a horrific 2022-23 that saw the Gophers go just 2-17 in the league and finish as one of the worst power conference teams in Division I hoops, they find themselves in the NCAA Tournament bubble mix in late February. The turnaround has been spurred by a number of things - the continued growth of Dawson Garcia and Pharrel Payne down low, the additions of Elijah Hawkins and Mike Mitchell Jr., and improved depth overall - and it doesn't feel like Minnesota is done just yet. With road trips to Nebraska and Illinois still remaining on the schedule, there are numerous opportunities to boost the resume, but the Gophers can't avoid the late-game woes that have become an all-too-common occurrence in the Twin Cities. 

8. Penn State Nittany Lions (14-14 overall, 8-9 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 11

It's unlikely to happen, but to my mind Penn State head coach Mike Rhoades deserves serious consideration for Big Ten Coach of the Year. Rhoades came over from VCU and inherited a roster with some of the most turnover in the league, and has them nearly at .500 inside the Big Ten with three games remaining on the schedule. The Nittany Lions haven't been intimidated by anybody on their schedule - on the contrary, they've beat a number of the conference's best, including Wisconsin and Illinois, despite missing leading scorer Kanye Clary. This is certainly a team that could be a spoiler in the Big Ten Tournament, as they're ending the year strong and look to be building momentum for a potentially much improved 2024-25.

9. Iowa Hawkeyes (16-12 overall, 8-9 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 9

Iowa remains one of the most confusing teams in the Big Ten, a team that had their share of struggles early on before finding themselves the deeper they've gotten into league play. Even so, the Hawkeyes still are prone to the occasional baffling loss, none larger than the Maryland defeat on the road on Valentine's Day. The Hawkeyes do remain in the NCAA Tournament mix after bolstering their resume as of late, but losing over the weekend to Illinois was a major missed opportunity for a team without much margin for error down the stretch. They will get the Illini again, this time in Iowa City to conclude the regular season, but they're running out of opportunities to prove themselves to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. The Big Ten Tournament will be huge for them, and we've seen Fran McCaffery-coached teams get hot when it matters most in the past.

10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (14-12 overall, 6-9 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 12

What was looking like a lost season for Rutgers changed rapidly when Jeremiah Williams was inserted into the rotation, with a four-game win streak through mid-February that suddenly had them gearing up for the postseason. Things have cooled since, with a pair of losses to Purdue and Minnesota, but with coming on the road, the Scarlet Knights still have a chance to end the campaign on a high note over their final five games. None of those five remaining games are against ranked opponents, although road trips to Lincoln and Madison will be tough to overcome for a team that struggles away from Jersey Mike's Arena. Still, Steve Pikiell's team is always a tough matchup and they are another wild card that could play spoiler over the next several weeks inside the league.

11. Maryland Terrapins (14-13 overall, 6-10 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 10

It's been a frustrating second season for Kevin Willard in College Park, as Maryland suffered several baffling losses in the non-conference and now find themselves near the bottom of the Big Ten standings in late February. Jahmir Young continues to be the only consistent source of offense for the Terrapins, but hasn't been enough to carry them to victory in consecutive close losses to Illinois and Wisconsin. The final stretch of conference games will be all about building momentum for next winter and on the bright side, the recent commitment of five-star center Derik Queen provides some solace for a team unlikely to be playing in the postseason.

12. Ohio State Buckeyes (15-12 overall, 5-11 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 13

Two straight frustrating seasons in Columbus doomed Chris Holtmann's tenure, and the program is now searching for new life as they look ahead to 2024-25 and beyond. It remains one of the more attractive jobs in the Big Ten, nestled in a great recruiting area and with plenty of NIL firepower, which means plenty of big names are going to be connected to it. But in the meantime, the Buckeyes are still playing hard under interim Jake Diebler, and the shocking upset of Purdue last week showed this team won't give up without a fight. The NIT is still very much on the table for the Buckeyes and without a ranked foe remaining on the schedule, they still have plenty to play for.

13. Indiana Hoosiers (14-13 overall, 6-10 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 8

Will Mike Woodson get a fourth year leading the Indiana Hoosiers? That's the question swirling around Bloomington as they've sunk near the bottom of the conference standings. Woodson was a strange hire at the time and while there have been a few good moments, Indiana simply has not won as much as the fans believe they should at this point in his tenure. Four consecutive losses have not helped, and the prognosis for ending the year strong doesn't appear encouraging - Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State are all better basketball teams at this point than the Hoosiers and the lone winnable game (Maryland) comes on the road. Add in Woodson's struggles on the recruiting trail, it just feels like a change is needed with the Big Ten set to expand for the 2024-25 season.

14. Michigan Wolverines (8-19 overall, 3-13 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 14

Chris Holtmann may be gone and Mike Woodson potentially out the door, but Juwan Howard's hot seat isn't far behind after a disastrous 2023-24. The Wolverines have been situated at the bottom of the conference essentially the entire season, and it's hard to take away any bright spots from the year. It's particularly baffling because the ingredients aren't terrible - Dug McDaniel is one of the most exciting young guards in the league, Olivier Nkamhoua and Nimari Burnett have been winning players elsewhere, and Terrance Williams II has quietly had a productive campaign. But, they just haven't worked together and the overall energy around the program is missing. It will be difficult to move on from Howard, one of the architects of the "Fab Five" but it's worth watching as we look towards the offseason.

Monday, February 19, 2024

5 Dark Horse Mid-Major NCAA Tournament Teams for 2024

Will Wade, McNeese
There is no sporting event quite like the NCAA Tournament, and nothing quite as magical as an unexpected "Cinderella" run. In a college sports landscape that seems increasingly defined by greed, big money, and the nefarious intentions of power brokers behind the scenes, a Cinderella run is about as pure as you can get in this day and age, a group of young men coming together to defy expectations and achieve a common goal. Yet, picking who this "Cinderella" team may be remains as difficult as ever - but what's a little pre-March Madness fun without trying? I've picked five teams outside of the power conferences who I believe have the best shot at becoming this year's March darling. Not all five are likely to make the field and plenty is still yet to change in the fluid world of college basketball, but keep your eyes on these candidates the closer we get to the Big Dance. 


McNeese State Cowboys

23-3 overall, 12-1 Southland Conference

Projected Seed: 12-14

For all the off-court turmoil that led to his eventual dismissal at LSU, there's no denying that Will Wade can coach. After serving a 10-game suspension to begin the 2023-24 campaign, Wade has the McNeese State Cowboys rolling, with a 23-3 mark overall and 12-1 record inside the Southland Conference. What makes this particular team interesting is the balance they bring to the equation on both ends. They feature one of the stingiest defenses anywhere in the nation (allowing 61.4 per contest), but can go the other way and blow others away with an explosive, relentless offense. Shahada Wells is the headliner of the offense, the likely Southland Player of the Year, but the Cowboys feature four players who average double-digits, plus big man Antavion Collum (9.5 PPG). It's a balanced group that can hit defenses in a variety of ways, and they aren't going to be intimidate by any of their opponents, already beating NCAA Tournament regulars VCU and Michigan on the year. They are by far and away the top team in the Southland and assuming they finish the job and get to the Big Dance, they are going to be a tough out somewhere in the 12-14 seed range. Ironically, it may be Wade's best chance for a deep NCAA Tournament run - the farthest he's gone in the Big Dance is the second round, and this team certainly has the chance to get to the event's second weekend.


Green Bay Phoenix

17-10 overall, 12-4 Horizon League

Projected Seed: 15-16

Searching for a storyline team to cheer for this March? Look no further than the Green Bay Phoenix, who are in the midst of one of the greatest turnaround seasons in recent college basketball history. After going 3-22 in 2022-23, which led to the dismissal of head man Will Ryan, the Phoenix are nestled near the top of the Horizon League standings in the debut campaign of Sundance Wicks. Beyond having one of the best names in all of college basketball, Wicks has instilled both a toughness in the program that has been lacking for some time. Wicks has also a team that have developed a knack for winning close game after close game. Can they continue that magic into March? They'll have to find a way to overcome Oakland inside the conference, but that goal doesn't seem impossible to overcome - the two teams split the regular season series. With a soft conference schedule the rest of the way, the Phoenix are likely to be one of the three teams set to get a bye in the first round of the Horizon League Tournament, setting them up one step closer to achieving a miraculous turnaround.


New Mexico Lobos

20-6 overall, 8-5 Mountain West

Projected Seed: 8-11

It's hard to call New Mexico a mid-major when the Mountain West is poised to put as many as six teams in the NCAA Tournament field, but the conference still fits the definition as they ramp up for a potentially special March. San Diego State and Utah State are almost sure to be the higher seeds come Selection Sunday but if I had to put my money on one team in the conference to do significant damage, it just may be the New Mexico Lobos. The Lobos remain frightfully inconsistent, but this is a very scary team when they put it all together, and they have the type of roster competition that typically thrives come March Madness. Three tremendous guards lead the way in Jaelan House, Donovan Dent, and Jamal Mashburn Jr., the type of trio that can overwhelm opponents, while big man J.T. Toppin is the glue that holds everything together underneath. Interestingly enough, New Mexico isn't a great three-point shooting team, but they still have one of the most explosive offenses in the Mountain West, a group that run others out of the gym when they're on their "A" game. The key for them has to be figuring out how to play more effectively away from "The Pit" as they've taken their lumps on the road, but have beaten both Utah State and San Diego State in Albuquerque. There's also the Richard Pitino factor on the sidelines, but could this be the team that finally delivers his most successful NCAA Tournament trip yet? For all negative feelings towards Pitino, and I'll save the rant for a different day, he has done a tremendous job assembling this roster and if they can get a favorable path, it wouldn't shock me at all if this team is dancing deep into March.


Samford Bulldogs

23-4 overall, 12-2 Southern Conference

Projected Seed: 13-15

The Southern Conference may be a shell of its former self, but it will be forever known for giving us one of the most exciting NCAA Tournament underdogs of all-time in Steph Curry and the Davidson Wildcats. A decade-and-a-half later, the league may have another "Cinderella" lurking in the form of the Samford Bulldogs, who are poised to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance in over two decades. There may not be a Steph Curry on this roster, but the Bulldogs, like many others on this list, do feature a high-flying offense that provides plenty of reason to tune in. They average nearly 88 points per game, fifth in the nation, and do so by sharing the ball among a deep and experienced roster. Forward Achor Achor may be their top scorer, but it's the backcourt that really paces this team, with Rylan Jones, A.J. Staton-McCray, and Jaden Campbell playing crucial roles. Just as important has been the healthy return of wing Jermaine Marshall, who missed a big chunk of the year but appears to be working his way back to full strength, giving Samford the type of inside-out threat that is needed come NCAA Tournament time. A healthy Marshall adds yet another capable contributor to the regular rotation, making this one of the deepest mid-major teams anywhere in the nation - they can genuinely go 10-12 players deep, another edge ever so critical late in the year. Assuming they can finish the job and get to the Big Dance, this is not a team I'd want to be playing in the first round. If they can find even a shred of defense, the Bulldogs are certainly capable of pulling off a major upset or two.



Appalachian State Mountaineers

21-5 overall, 11-2 Sun Belt

Projected Seed: 12-13

When James Madison shocked Michigan State to kick off the 2023-24 campaign, it appeared as though the Dukes were going to be the Sun Belt favorite and a dangerous mid-major opponent come NCAA Tournament time. The Dukes still remain firmly in the hunt for an NCAA Tournament berth, but have instead been supplanted inside the Sun Belt as a "Cinderella" candidate by the Appalachian State Mountaineers. Not only have the Mountaineers beaten James Madison twice now, both on the road and at home, they've won 11 of their 12 games, with the lone defeat coming at the hands of Texas State on the road. What I find particularly interesting about Appalachian State and why I like them as a "Cinderella" candidate, is that they don't have just one overwhelming strength - they can win games in a variety of different ways. Whether that's going for over 100 in beating another potential NCAA Tournament opponent in Toledo, or grinding out low-scoring victories like they did against James Madison on the road, this is an incredibly versatile Mountaineer team that adjusts as well to their opponent as anybody in the country. Simply look no further than their upset of Auburn earlier in the season - they played a controlled basketball game and forced Auburn's guards to try and beat them, which resulted in the Tigers shooting under 40% from the field and just 11% from three. Appalachian State is not going to be an easy out when it comes to March, and assuming they can get there, this looks like your prime 5-12 upset candidate in the first round.

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

NFL Mock Draft 2024: Edition 3 (Super Bowl Edition)

Jayden Daniels, LSU
 1. Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams, QB, USC

What Chicago decides to do with the No. 1 overall selection will set the tone for the entire 2024 NFL Draft. Will they trade away Justin Fields and use this pick on Caleb Williams? Or, do they trade down themselves and continue to accumulate draft capital? The prevailing notion appears to be the former, giving the Bears the type of game-changer at the position they have lacked for far too long.

2. Washington Commanders

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Sam Howell and Drake Maye ended up sitting together at the recent Duke-North Carolina game to cheer on their Tar Heels. While they were able to see the Heels come out on top, the scenario had an awkward feel to it, with Drake Maye trending in the direction of being the No. 2 overall pick. Things could change, but it's clear the new regime wants to invest in a new signal-caller and after an illustrious run in Chapel Hill, Maye looks to be the answer.

3. New England Patriots

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

It's a new day in New England, as Jerod Mayo takes the reins as head man. The first priority? Finding a quarterback that can win him football games on Sundays and evidently, Mac Jones is not that guy. Fortunately in this scenario, the reigning Heisman winner falls into their laps at pick three, giving the Patriots a player with a proven pedigree ready for this opportunity.

4. Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best player in this Draft, full stop. But with three QB-needy teams ahead of Arizona on the big board, the Cardinals come out as major winners by landing a generational talent at wide out. Harrison gives the offense much-needed playmaking on the perimeter, and could be just what Kyler Murray needs to hit another gear in 2024 and beyond.

5. Los Angeles Chargers

Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

To me, the fifth pick is where the 2024 NFL Draft starts to get very interesting, with the new-look LA Chargers in position to go a number of different ways with this selection. There may be greater needs than receiver at the moment, but it wouldn't surprise if Keenan Allen or Mike Williams were cap casualties over the offseason. Malik Nabers gives them a cheap replacement with elite playmaking potential, fresh off a huge 2023 in Baton Rouge.

6. New York Giants

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Coming off a disappointing 2023 and set to turn 32 years of age, it doesn't feel like Darren Waller fits New York's long-term gameplan anymore. It's time to cut their losses, and fortunately, they have a chance to upgrade at the position by adding Brock Bowers in the early first. Even coming off a leg injury that cost him a big chunk of the fall, Bowers is the clear top tight end in this class, a tremendous pass-catcher who will be playing on Sundays for years to come.

7. Tennessee Titans

Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

It'd be a bit of a surprise for the first offensive linemen to come off the board down at seven but you just never know how the chips may fall. Either way, that would be a win for the Titans, allowing them to draft their preferred top-blocker at this spot and continue bolstering a group that is in transition mode. Joe Alt is a proven commodity out of Notre Dame who should immediately bring run-blocking prowess to the table in Tennessee.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Dallas Turner, DE/LB, Alabama

Atlanta has one of the most exciting young offensive cores in the league with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, but the quarterback position is an obvious need. Unfortunately with the top three options off the board, there just doesn't feel like a QB fit here, meaning the Falcons likely either wait or trade down. If that's the case, it makes sense to invest in a pass rusher if they do stay firm at eight, and Alabama's Dallas Turner offers great value.

9. Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Caleb Williams is the type of franchise-altering quarterback every NFL team wants, but the reality is that he's still going to need help around him to succeed. Enter Rome Odunze, fresh off a monster season at Washington in which he finished as a Biletnikoff Award finalist. His ability to create downfield gives the Bears a weapon to take the top off defenses, subsequently opening things up for Cole Kmet and D.J. Moore underneath.

10. New York Jets

Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

With the Jets set to run it back with a (hopefully) healthy Aaron Rodgers, protecting the future Hall-of-Famer will be crucial. Fortunately, Olu Fashanu offers plenty of value at the ten spot - the Nittany Lion product would have been a Top 10 pick last spring had he come out, and put together a strong 2023 campaign.

11. Minnesota Vikings

Byron Murphy II, DL, Texas

Remember when the "Williams wall" made Minnesota's defensive front one of the most imposing in the NFL? This defensive line group has slipped in recent years, but the Vikings have a chance to add a high-upside piece in Byron Murphy II, who seems to be trending up boards after playing an instrumental role in the Longhorn Playoff run this fall.

12. Denver Broncos

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

It would be genuinely shocking to see Russell Wilson under center for Denver in 2024, but what the Broncos choose to do at the position moving forward remains a mystery. More and more, it feels like they take a swing at a QB with pick 12, and J.J. McCarthy looks to be cementing himself as the "best of the rest" after the top trio goes off the board. McCarthy's a winner, and has the type skillset that Sean Payton could mold for success in the Mile High City.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

One of the big winners at the Senior Bowl, Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell hasn't just played himself into first round pick territory - he has a chance to be the first corner off the board this spring. The three-year starter is a well-rounded prospect with the size, athleticism, and experience to be a rock-solid piece for the Raider secondary for years to come.

14. New Orleans Saints

Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

As I mentioned in my last mock, Taliese Fuaga is the type of prospect that should continue to rise up draft boards as the pre-Draft process unfolds. The former Beaver has impressive measurements who should wow at the Combine. He could end up being the first offensive linemen off the board and at this spot, he's the perfect solution for a Saints team that needs to upgrade a banged up offensive front.

15. Indianapolis Colts

Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Playing in a division that now includes Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud, Indianapolis has work to do to shore up a secondary that was frightfully inconsistent over the past season. They'd consider themselves major winners if Clemson's Nate Wiggins drops to them, an experienced, ball-hawking defender who could easily find himself going in the Top 10 come Draft Day.

16. Seattle Seahawks

Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

If the Seahawks want to be a serious threat in the NFC, upgrading a porous rush defense should be a top priority. Johnny Newton was one of the most imposing defenders anywhere in college football during his time at Illinois and has gotten better each and every season. He could give Seattle the type of physical specimen up front they've consistently lacked since Michael Bennett.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama

After a disappointing conclusion to the 2023 season, the Jaguars will need to invest in their offense to get Trevor Lawrence and the entire unit back on track. Taking an impact blocker like J.C. Latham would work wonders from the very beginning, giving Jacksonville a nice bookend to pair opposite of another one-time Alabama blocker, Cam Robinson.

18. Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius Mims, OL, Georgia

It's set to be an interesting offseason in Cincinnati, with several big names set to hit free agency. Receiver will be a place to watch, with both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd potentially moving on, but the greater need for the Bengals may be on the offensive line, with Jonah Williams hitting the market. If he does indeed walk, Cincinnati adds a possible replacement here in Amarius Mims, who can play multiple spots along the O-Line.

19. Los Angeles Rams

Laiatu Latu, DE/LB, UCLA

As things stand today, it looks like the Rams are gearing up for what could be their final run at a Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford under center. If that's the case, the defense will need reinforcements, particularly off the edge. Enter Laiatu Latu, an impact pass rusher out of UCLA with all the necessary physical tools to be a disruptor for years to come in Los Angeles.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon

Another big winner from the Senior Bowl was Oregon's Jackson Powers-Johnson, following up his Rimington Trophy season with a dominant showing at a crucial time in the pre-Draft process. He has now moved into first-round lock territory, and Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense. With Mason Cole set to cash in over the offseason the Steelers are almost surely set to move on, with Powers-Johnson the perfect sit to slide into the vacancy.

21. Miami Dolphins

Graham Barton, OL, Duke

The run on offensive linemen continues here with the Dolphins adding a quality interior blocker in Graham Barton out of Duke. Barton doesn't seem to have the upside of other projected first-round linemen, but he's a proven commodity who will immediately upgrade Miami's ground game and stabilize a position likely to be influx over the offseason.

22. Philadelphia Eagles

Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

This feels like a no-brainer for Philadelphia, who has a clear need at cornerback and now has a shot to add Kool-Aid McKinstry out of Alabama. Although his draft stock seems to be slipping in recent weeks, McKinstry is still widely considered one of the top corners in this cycle, and brings an elite playmaker to the equation for the Eagles.

23. Houston Texans

T'Vondre Sweat, DL, Texas

Beyond Will Anderson Jr., the Texans are thin on proven pass rushers as they prep for the 2024 campaign. They'd love if a piece like Latu or Jer'Zhan Newton were to drop to them at 23, but T'Vondre Sweat offers quite the consolation prize. A relentless interior pass rusher, Sweat seems like the perfect type of player for head coach Demeco Ryans, and he put together a strong showing at the Senior Bowl.

24. Dallas Cowboys

Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington

Keep your eye on cornerback as a potential move for Dallas at this spot, but with McKinstry and others already off the board, I'm looking at offensive line instead. Tyron Smith is set to turn 33 years of age and has struggled to stay healthy in recent years - the Cowboys get a high-upside replacement here in Washington's Troy Fautanu.

25. Green Bay Packers

Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

Yet another offensive tackle off the board? You can never be quite sure which direction Green Bay is going on any given draft day, but they have a clear need at tackle with David Bahktiari's long-term future with the franchise in doubt. The Packers could choose to find a replacement in free agency, but it may be difficult to pass up on a player with the potential of Jordan Morgan, who has all the physical gifts to be a force on Sundays.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jared Verse, DE, Florida State

The Buccaneers have numerous questions on offense, even after winning the NFC South in 2023, but it feels like they'll run it back with a similar core on that side of the ball and instead focusing on adding impact defenders through the Draft. Jared Verse offers tremendous value here in the late first as one of the most NFL-ready edge rushers in this cycle.

27. Arizona Cardinals

Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

Arizona landed a superstar wide out earlier in the first, now they work on fixing the rest of the holes on the roster. Offensive line is a notable one, even with the selection of Paris Johnson last spring, but with so many of the top options off the board, I envision them instead working on solidifying the secondary - and Cooper DeJean is too good to resist at 27.

28. Buffalo Bills

Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

If the Bills have any hopes of finally overcoming Kansas City in the AFC, upgrading the offensive weapons around Josh Allen must be a top priority. Fortunately, there could be an abundance of options in the late first, and Keon Coleman has potential to be quite the steal at this juncture. Coleman is the most purely talented wide out in this Draft not named Marvin Harrison Jr., now it's about him developing consistency.

29. Detroit Lions

Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri

Detroit asks a lot of their corners, and it's clear the perimeter defense needs to improve if this team is going to make a run at an NFC Title. Ennis Rakestraw Jr. presents quite the solution - he's long, athletic, and never seems to fatigue, making him an ideal fit in this system. He was instrumental in Missouri's major turnaround this past fall.

30. Baltimore Ravens

Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri

Back-to-back Missouri Tigers? Darius Robinson has the feels of a Baltimore Raven prospect to me, a high-upside defender with scheme versatility and a proven work ethic. Robinson played off the edge primarily in college, but looks to move inside at the next level, giving Baltimore a disruptor who can be used in multiple ways.

31. San Francisco 49ers

Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

San Francisco doesn't have the glaring needs of others in this first round, so why not take a swing at a boom-or-bust prospect like Tyler Guyton? Guyton is raw, starting just 15 times over four seasons in Norman, but has dazzling physical gifts and seems to be scratching the surface of what he can be long-term. If you're the Niners, what do you have to lose?

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

With the exception of Rashee Rice, Kansas City's receiver corps was horrific in 2023. While Patrick Mahomes can make things work with whatever he's dealt, this has to be a point of emphasis if the Chiefs are to maintain their standing atop the NFL. Brian Thomas Jr. is cementing himself as a first-rounder and while he doesn't quite have the big-play ability of his former LSU teammate Malik Nabers, he's got ideal NFL size.


Tuesday, February 6, 2024

Big Ten Power Rankings 2023-24: Edition 3

Chucky Hepburn, Wisconsin

 * Records updated through 2/6/2024

1. Purdue Boilermakers (21-2 overall, 10-2 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 1

For the third straight time, Purdue remains perched atop these rankings, solidifying their hold on the league with a 75-69 victory over Wisconsin over the weekend. It was the type of road win that displayed just how many ways this team can win - neither team shot the ball particularly well in a low-scoring, physical affair but Purdue's edge on the glass and in the paint helped them prevail. It also kicked off a month of February that looks very favorable for the Boilermakers, a month they could realistically go undefeated in if they continue their impressive play. They get Indiana and Minnesota at home, go on the road to Ohio State, and then Rutgers and Michigan to close out the month. It wouldn't be a surprise at all to see the Boilermakers enter the month of March with the league title and No. 1 seed just about locked up.

2. Wisconsin Badgers (16-6 overall, 8-3 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 2

A pair of losses over the last week has Wisconsin going back to the drawing board, but neither defeat should be cause for serious concern in Madison. They dropped a close contest on the road to Nebraska in a classic look-ahead spot and then gave Purdue all they could handle over 40 minutes at the Kohl Center before coming up just short. It will be back on the road over their next two games, but the Badgers still remain in strong position to battle their way into a 2-3 seed come Selection Sunday, assuming they can get back on track. That will require them to find their shooting stroke again from downtown after going a horrific 3-19 from downtown in the Purdue loss. Others will need to emerge beyond Max Klesmit, particularly A.J. Storr, who fell back to Earth with a rough showing over the weekend.

3. Illinois Fighting Illini (17-5 overall, 8-3 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 3

You could certainly make the case that Illinois deserves the second spot as they've ripped off three straight victories, but we'll need to wait until early March to get a definitive answer on whether the Illini or Badgers are the greatest threat to Purdue inside the league. The Illini certainly seem to be playing better offensively, hitting 80 points or above in five of their last six games, but they'll need to find some semblance of defense if they wish to continue their recent hot streak. That means others stepping up on that end of the court beyond big man Coleman Hawkins, who currently leads the team in both blocks and steals.

4. Nebraska Cornhuskers (16-7 overall, 6-6 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 5

One thing is becoming increasingly clear the deeper we get into the Big Ten season - Fred Hoiberg's Cornhuskers are legit. Despite several ugly results mixed into their record, notably road defeats to Rutgers and Maryland, the 'Huskers own one of the stronger resumes in the conference, with victories over Purdue and Wisconsin to their credit. The key now will be developing more consistency, and the schedule shapes up nicely to do just that. After traveling to Evanston to face off with Northwestern, the Cornhuskers get Michigan and Penn State back in Lincoln, two opportunities to improve their record and ensure they are on the right side of the bubble the closer we get to Selection Sunday.

5. Northwestern Wildcats (15-7 overall, 6-5 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 4

It was a frustrating past week for Northwestern, dropping a pair of hard-fought games that could have easily gone the other way. Losing to Purdue on the road in an overtime thriller is nothing to be ashamed of, but the Wildcats have to feel like they let one get away during this Saturday's defeat at the hands of Minnesota, leading by nine points deep into the second half. At this point, we know who Northwestern is - Boo Buie and their tremendous guard play gives them a chance in every game, but the lack of proven contributors on the interior leave them susceptible against the elite bigs they see on a regular basis in the Big Ten. Things go get easier with a stretch of games that includes Nebraska, Penn State, and Rutgers, but there's plenty of work to be done over the next month-and-half as the Wildcats hope to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume.

6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (15-7 overall, 6-5 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 8

After a surprising 3-1 start to Big Ten play, things seemed to be going south in a hurry for Ben Johnson's club, with four straight losses sinking them to the bottom half of the league standings. But, the Gophers have responded in a way that we just didn't see over the first two seasons of Johnson's tenure, beating Penn State, Northwestern, and Michigan State to get back over .500 in the conference. They remain frustratingly inconsistent, but there's plenty of reason for optimism as Minnesota prepares for the back half of the conference schedule. Dawson Garcia has evolved into a bonafide superstar, Elijah Hawkins is one of the most exciting players in the conference, and the Gophers have their deepest roster they've had in some time. They remain on the outside looking in when it comes to the NCAA Tournament but the Michigan State was a major resume-booster for a team that needed it, and the fact this team has anything to play for into February is a welcome change.

7. Michigan State Spartans (14-9 overall, 6-6 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 10

Another year in East Lansing, and the same old script seems to be repeating itself. The Spartans had a rough go of things in the non-conference and early portion of Big Ten play, but have been one of the league's best teams over the past month. They entered Tuesdays night winners of five of their last six games, with their lone loss coming to Wisconsin, but were unable to come out victorious in a hard-fought loss in the Twin Cities to Minnesota. Despite that defeat, Tom Izzo's team is clearly finding their rhythm at the right time as they've gotten healthier, and this is arguably the Big Ten's best roster top-to-bottom. They have two capable, experienced lead guards in Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard, a healthy Malik Hall as the glue guy, and a flaming hot Jaden Akins to pour it on from the outside. This is a team that nobody wants to play right now, but we'll learn a lot more over the next couple weeks, with the Spartans playing three of their next four on the road and getting a Top 10 Illinois in East Lansing.

8. Indiana Hoosiers (14-9 overall, 6-6 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 6

Indiana's Big Ten record was buoyed by winning three of their first four games in the conference, but they've faltered over the last several weeks and now find themselves desperately needing a momentum shift in early February. To be fair to the Hoosiers, the schedule has been absolutely brutal, with three ranked opponents over their last six, and it hasn't helped that star big man Kel'el Ware has been banged up. Yet, the problem remains clear in Bloomington - they star power and a trio of impressive frontcourt pieces, but they need more from the backcourt if they have any hopes of getting back on track. The continued poor health of guard Xavier Johnson has put a real strain on the entire roster - the veteran seemed to be working his way back, but has missed the last two games, including Tuesday night's win over Ohio State. If the Hoosiers have any hopes of a potential NCAA Tournament run, they need him back in action. 

9. Iowa Hawkeyes (13-9 overall, 5-6 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 7

Fran McCaffery's Hawkeyes remain a very difficult team to get a read on this winter. They appeared to be turning a corner with three straight wins through mid-January, but then have followed it up with three losses in their last four, including winnable games against Indiana and Maryland. As usual, Iowa hasn't had any issues putting the ball in the net, once again featuring one of the league's most explosive offenses, but defensive woes and turnover problems have made them awfully streaky. There's plenty of time for the Hawkeyes to flip the script before a treacherous late February and March slate, but time is quickly running out for this team to have any shot at another postseason berth.

10. Maryland Terrapins (13-10 overall, 5-7 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 9

Speaking of teams that are difficult to get a read on, Maryland comes in at ten in these rankings, despite the fact they could be much higher. They've had a frustrating go of it trying to close out games - their last three losses, prior to their Tuesday night defeat at the hands of Rutgers came by a combined 14 points. Kevin Willard needs to figure out some way to get this team to finish off strong, because the roster has plenty of weapons and College Park remains an exceptionally difficult place to play. That likely means somebody beyond Jahmir Young showing they can handle the offensive load, a consistent issue for a team whose average of 69.5 PPG ranks them 325th nationally.

11. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-11 overall, 5-6 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 12

Penn State almost certainly isn't going to be going to the postseason in Mike Rhoades' first season, but this team deserves a lot of credit for the season they've put together after an offseason of turnover. They've been a .500 team in one of the most balanced leagues in America and have proven they can go out and beat just about anybody on any given night, with a victory over Wisconsin to their credit. The Nittany Lions could easily be a spoiler down the stretch, as they face off with three straight opponents over the next several weeks aiming to bolster their NCAA Tournament resumes in Michigan State, Northwestern, and Nebraska. 

12. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (12-10 overall, 4-7 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 13

It's been a down season in Piscataway but one thing about Steve Pikiell-coached teams is that they never give up fighting. The Scarlet Knights have ripped off two straight road victories, bumping them up to 4-7 in the conference and giving them much-needed momentum as they prepare for the final stretch of the campaign. The offense continues to be an issue, although a healthy Mawot Mag has made a huge difference, but Pikiell seems just fine playing his typical grind it out style. With Wisconsin and Northwestern set to travel to Jersey Mike's Arena next, the Scarlet Knights could be a feisty foe to watch through the month of February.

13. Ohio State Buckeyes (13-10 overall, 3-9 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 11

It's becoming increasingly clear that Ohio State's shocking downfall in 2022-23 was not simply an aberration - the program has real problems they need to solve. Five straight losses have placed them near the bottom of the Big Ten standings, and the path forward isn't clear. The lone glimmer of hope is that they've played things tight over their last two, losing by two to Iowa and three to Indiana. Unfortunately, their reward? A back-to-back with Wisconsin and Purdue next week. They do play Maryland before then, an opportunity to get things right against another team not playing their best basketball, but the season appears lost at this point. It's not crazy to think head coach Chris Holtmann could be heading to the hot seat after an impressive run of consistency over his first five seasons at the helm. 

14. Michigan Wolverines (7-15 overall, 2-9 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 14

Did Michigan athletics sell their soul to win a National Title? As the Wolverine faithful watches Jim Harbaugh return to the NFL and take a host of assistants with him, the results on the hardwood have given them little reason for optimism. Juwan Howard's team has lost five straight games, including a 10-point defeat at home to Rutgers that felt like one of their final chances to steal away a conference win. The roster simply lacks any offensive explosiveness beyond Dug McDaniel, and with a tough stretch ahead of them, it's hard to imagine any significant turnaround coming in Ann Arbor.

Saturday, January 27, 2024

CFB Coaching Carousel 2023-24: Breaking Down Every Power Conference Hire of the Offseason

Kalen DeBoer, Alabama

The college football coaching carousel is constantly spinning, but the festivities this year felt a bit flat for most of the late fall and early winter. There was a real lack of big names moving on, dampening the drama and intrigue that has become one of the most exciting times on the college football calendar. Even at a place like Texas A&M, a program that will shell out tens of millions of dollars for Jimbo Fisher not to be their head coach, they settled on a familiar, relatively uninteresting name in Duke head man Mike Elko (who was formerly their defensive coordinator). 

Then, the Nick Saban news broke. The retirement of the greatest coach in college football history sent the carousel into a frenzy and impacted programs across the country. And then the Jim Harbaugh news, that he would finally be making his return to the NFL with the Los Angeles Chargers. With two of the biggest names in the sport moving on, the college football coaching world has gone a radical transformation in a matter of weeks. With that in mind, it's time to break down this year's carousel, with the assumption that the chaos has died down, for at least the time being. There's still plenty left to decide at this juncture, here's my take on each of the power conference jobs that changed hands this offseason. 


Alabama Crimson Tide

Out: Nick Saban (retirement)

In: Kalen DeBoer, Washington HC

It was only a matter of time before Nick Saban called it a career and although I always imagined him riding out on top with a National Title, it didn't come as a complete shock when he announced his retirement in December. For all of his success, Saban has made it clear he hasn't been a huge fan of the direction college football has taken in recent years, and the unrelenting pace of recruiting, NIL, and transfers is enough to burn out even the most accomplished of head coaches.

Now, Kalen DeBoer will be tasked with replacing one of the sport's eternal legends. It's quite a tall task, to put it mildly, but the 49-year old appears up for the challenge after an impressive two-year run at Washington. It's been an impressive rise up the coaching ladder for DeBoer, culminating in arguably FBS football's most prestigious gig, as he's gone from offensive coordinator at Southern Illinois to Alabama head coach in just over a decade. Sandwiched in there were several assistant pit stops, along with head coaching jobs at both Fresno State and Washington, but he is now confronting a whole different animal in Tuscaloosa. I have little question DeBoer has the football knowledge or skills as a head coach to succeed, but recruiting is what's going to ultimately determine just how well of a job he does following up Saban. Recruiting is the lifeblood of the SEC, especially at Alabama, and we simply don't know how good of a recruiter DeBoer is at this level, at least not yet. He could come out and absolutely kill it on the trail, but the types of programs he's competing against are different than at Fresno or Washington. It's going to be quite the transition for him, and I'm curious to see how he responds. Fortunately, the prognosis for the Tide still appears promising in 2024, even with several big names entering the portal after Saban's retirement. That should give DeBoer some much-needed momentum to get this thing off the ground in his debut campaign.


Arizona Wildcats

Out: Jedd Fisch (took Washington HC job)

In: Brent Brennan, San Jose State HC

Jedd Fisch was considered by some to be an underwhelming hire by Arizona following the disastrous run by Kevin Sumlin, but he put together a marvelous three-year in charge in Tucson. After an 1-11 debut, Fisch helped Arizona climb to five wins and then ten in 2023, punctuated by an Alamo Bowl win over Oklahoma. Unsurprisingly, that type of immediate success caught the eye of suitors across the college football landscape and Fisch ultimately took advantage, taking the Washington job vacated by DeBoer.

In his stead, Arizona turns to a familiar name in Brent Brennan, who was a grad assistant with the program in 2000 and coached under Dick Tomey for years, the winningest coach in Wildcat history. It's hard to call the hire a splashy one, but it's an understandable, shrewd one. Brennan comes at a fairly cheap price for a power conference program, did a rock-solid job at San Jose State, and knows the program enough to assume he won't bolt at the earliest opportunity. That's a lot of boxes he checks, giving the program some degree of normalcy as it transitions to life in the Big 12 in 2024.


Duke Blue Devils

Out: Mike Elko (took Texas A&M job)

In: Manny Diaz, Penn State DC

The Mike Elko situation is a prime example of why building a long-term winner in college football can be so difficult. Duke made an excellent hire by bringing him on, he went out and put together two impressive seasons, and then promptly departed for greener pastures. Duke simply didn't have the money or resources to keep him town for an extended period of time, and without any connections to the school, Elko made the best decision for himself in the long-term.

Unfortunately, that left the Blue Devils making their second head coaching hire in under three years, and they ultimately decided on Manny Diaz. Diaz has had a long and winding road to Durham but knows the ACC well after serving as head coach at Miami for three seasons before being unceremoniously dumped in favor of Mario Cristobal. Diaz has rehabilitated his image with a pair of really strong seasons as Penn State's defensive coordinator, and seems like a low-risk, high-reward move by Duke brass. The Miami job always felt a bit too large and daunting for Diaz at the time, but at a place like Duke, he can settle in and take his time in building this program. There have already been some early wins for Diaz, too, as he managed to land one of the most coveted quarterback transfers on the market in Maalik Murphy from Texas. Pairing Murphy's big arm with the high-octane offenses ran by new OC Jonathan Brewer should, at the very least, put fans in the seats and give the Blue Devil faithful reason for excitement each and every Saturday. That's an awfully good starting point and if Diaz can work the portal to his advantage, it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up being one of the better hires of this cycle.


Houston Cougars

Out: Dana Holgorsen (fired)

In: Willie Fritz (Tulane HC)

It's been a steady climb up the coaching ladder for Willie Fritz as head coach, going from JUCO powerhouse Blinn College, to Division II Central Missouri, to Sam Houston State of the FCS, to Georgia Southern, to Tulane, and now his first power conference job at Houston. And the amazing thing is, he's won at every single one of those stops, including a 54-47 mark at Tulane, which saw the Green Wave go 23-4 over the last two seasons and win a New Year's Six bowl.

The jump to the Big 12 should be an interesting one for Fritz, but Houston has long been a job with significant potential. The administration has been more than willing to pay top dollars to improve the program, the NIL operation is ramping up, and it's nestled in fertile recruiting grounds. All of those factors working in favor of Fritz with his proven track record, it's hard to imagine this not working out, even with the uncertainty of the new-look Big 12. With that being said, it's typically been a slow burn for Fritz at most of his previous stops - don't expect the Cougars to be challenging for conference supremacy in 2024. He's also 63 years of age and certainly no up-and-comer, but feels like the type of steady, proven winner that Houston needs at this time after a decade-plus of instability at the head coaching position.


Indiana Hoosiers

Out: Tom Allen (fired)

In: Curt Cignetti (James Madison HC)

A basketball school through and through nestled in a Big Ten East that included Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State, the odds were always stacked against Tom Allen in Bloomington. Despite that, the Indiana native actually managed to guide the program to some notable highs, including an eight-win 2019 and strong COVID season showing in 2020. But, a 9-27 record in the last three seasons since 2020 ultimately doomed his tenure, and left Indiana brass making a much-needed change.

Enter Curt Cignetti, a 62-year old head man fresh off an incredibly successful run guiding James Madison from the FCS ranks to FBS ball. It will be Cignetti's fourth head coaching post and first at this level, but the highly accomplished coach is no stranger to big-time college ball. He was on Nick Saban's first staff at Alabama from 2007-2010 and prior to that coached Russell Wilson at NC State, building up a strong resume before taking over the head coach gig at Indiana University of Pennsylvania. Much like Houston and Willie Fritz, it doesn't necessarily feel like a splashy hire by IU, but a very sensible one. They get a proven head coach on an affordable deal who has had success everywhere he's been - in the wacky world of college football coaching sometimes you don't have to overthink it. Cignetti certainly hasn't shied away from the spotlight since taking over, taking aim at Purdue, Ohio State, and Michigan during his initial introduction. He will have the benefit of no longer being in the same division as several league heavyweights with the Big Ten moving on from divisions, but there's plenty of work to be done for Cignetti to live up to his bold claims.


Michigan Wolverines

Out: Jim Harbaugh (took LA Chargers job)

In: Sherrone Moore (Michigan OC)

A return to the NFL seemed inevitable for Jim Harbaugh at some point and after years of rumors, he finally made the jump to take over the Los Angeles Chargers. It felt like this was the time to do it, fresh off a National Title and after a year in which Harbaugh was suspended for a big chunk of the season. Just as important, there was a clear successor in line in Sherrone Moore, who will slide from offensive coordinator to head coach.

It will be the first true head coaching position for Moore, but the 37-year old brings a proven track record to the table. He has steadily risen up the ranks before landing at Michigan in 2018 as their TE coach, and then transitioned to the team's OC and OL coach. He completely revamped the Wolverine offensive line, a key factor into their development as a National Title-level program and kept the team steady through the uncertainty of Harbaugh's suspensions as acting head coach in 2023. He was the logical direction for the program to go in, delivering stability and continuity, with the room for growth as he matures into the position. Defending a National Title will still be an awfully tall task, especially with significant personnel turnover, but Moore has the pieces in place to succeed in 2024 and beyond. 


Michigan State Spartans

Out: Mel Tucker (fired)

In: Jonathan Smith, Oregon State HC

Pulling away a head coach from his alma mater is never easy to do, but Michigan State managed to do just that when they lured Jonathan Smith away from Oregon State over the offseason. It was quite the coup for the Spartans, bringing in an established name who had done a truly remarkable job rebuilding the Beavers after he was left a mess by Gary Andersen. A 34-35 record might not jump out at you, but three straight bowl appearances, including one ten-win campaign, at a place like Oregon State is incredibly hard to pull off. 

It's likely Smith felt that Oregon State's uncertain future made the decision easier and the timing does seem to work out right by for both sides. Smith gets a big pay jump and enters life in the Big Ten, while the Spartans get a fresh look after a lost season that began with Mel Tucker being fired. There have been early wins here, as well, as Smith brought a big name with him from Oregon State in rising quarterback Aidan Chiles and also filled out his staff with strong hires. Convincing Minnesota defensive coordinator Joe Rossi to leave P.J. Fleck's side was quite the statement from Smith and should set up the MSU defense up for success after several leaky years under Tucker. Plenty of work is yet to be done to get the program back on track, but this has always been a job with significant potential and Smith has the tools to make the most of it.


Mississippi State Bulldogs

Out: Zach Arnett (fired)

In: Jeff Lebby, Oklahoma OC

Zach Arnett was always looked at as a short-term fix for Mississippi State after the unfortunate passing of Mike Leach following the 2022 season and after an underwhelming Year One, Bulldog brass moved quickly in firing him. His replacement seems to bring them back to their Leach roots in Jeff Lebby, an offensive-minded head coach who first made a name for himself under Art Briles at Baylor. For all the controversy surrounding Briles and many of the other members of that Bear staff, in a purely football sense there was little questioning the on-field product.

Since his time at Baylor, Lebby caught on at UCF and helped McKenzie Milton finish in the Top 10 of Heisman voting twice, before joining up with Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss. After two years there, it was time to jump to Oklahoma, where Lebby engineered a pair of productive offenses under Brent Venables. Mississippi State will be his first head coaching job, but the logic seems sound - he's a rising name in the profession whose offense should match the personnel on the roster. Life in the SEC certainly won't be easy, but Lebby seems to have the right approach to the job and ultimately this is Mississippi State - nobody is expecting National Title parades in Starkville.


Oregon State Beavers

Out: Jonathan Smith (took Michigan State job)

In: Trent Bray, Oregon State DC

Much like Michigan ended up doing with Sherrone Moore after Harbaugh's departure, Oregon State chose to stay close to home by selecting defensive coordinator Trent Bray to be Jonathan Smith's replacement. Losing Smith still stings, but the Beavers are hopeful that Bray will ensure continuity, and the 41-year old head man does check plenty of boxes.

Bray is an Oregon State alum who understands the program as well as anybody, with the right knowledge about the unique challenges of building a winner in Corvallis. He's been on the coaching staff since 2018 under Smith and previously served as interim head coach at Nebraska, albeit for just one week as the program transitioned from Mike Riley to Scott Frost in 2017. He has yet to coach a college game, but has been a coach in major college football for a decade-and-a-half at big-name programs across the country. At the very least, he gives Oregon State a sense of normalcy as they wade into an uncertain future away from the Pac-12. That's important, as the 2024 schedule isn't exactly easy, even with the Beavers essentially serving as a de-facto member of the Mountain West. Arch-rival Oregon remains on the schedule, road trips to San Diego State, Boise State, and Air Force loom, and the Beavers also meet up with other power conference foes like Purdue and California. It poses an interesting challenge for Bray, and we'll learn a lot about whether he's the right man for this job throughout this fall. 


Northwestern Wildcats

Out: Pat Fitzgerald (fired)

In: David Braun (interim HC)

David Braun might not have as large of shoes to fill as Kalen DeBoer, but Pat Fitzgerald was something of a living legend himself in Evanston before being brought down by scandal just weeks before the beginning of the 2023 campaign. The scandal rocked the Northwestern community and threatens to scar Fitzgerald's reputation in the long-term, but it may end up being a good thing for the program in a pure football sense. The program had clearly tailed off under Fitzgerald in recent years, and his old-school approach threatened to leave Northwestern behind in the new-look Big Ten.

David Braun, who had been hired as the team's new defensive coordinator just months before the scandal, was named the interim head coach and all he did was go 8-5 and take home Big Ten Coach of the Year honors. It truly was arguably the most impressive coaching jobs anywhere in the country this year - the Wildcats looked crisp and prepared each and every week, and played with an attitude and energy that seemed to be lacking in the latter years under Fitzgerald. In the end it didn't come as any surprise that Northwestern opted to simply remove the interim tag and make Braun the new head of the program, giving them a gifted 33-year head coach with the right skillset to lead them into a new future. There are likely to be growing pains, as there are for any young head coach at this level, but the Wildcats can live with that as long as the positives we saw throughout 2023 carry forward now that he has the full-time gig. This still isn't an easy job - there are significant institutional hurdles in place - but Braun feels like the right guy at the right time in Evanston.


Syracuse Orange

Out: Dino Babers (fired)

In: Fran Brown, Georgia DB coach

A perennial hot seat candidate for most of the last several seasons, Syracuse finally decided to pull the plug on Dino Babers this fall. The decision finished off a tenure that had plenty of highlights, but was ultimately pulled down by late-season collapses, with a 41-55 record over eight years. In response, the Orange decided to go with a bit of an outside-the-box hire in Georgia defensive backs coach Fran Brown, who gets his first crack as head coach at any level. The reason Syracuse is taking a swing on a young coach like Brown? He's considered one of the premier recruiters in the sport, giving this program a fighting chance at bringing in elite talent to upstate New York.

Of course, there will be a bit of a learning curve for Brown as he adjusts to his new gig, which will certainly be quite different than his previous role at Georgia. But, Brown is no stranger to the Northeast - he's from New Jersey and spent several years at Temple and Rutgers. And, he's already made early waves, landing Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord and several big-name transfers from the portal. Still, there is a lot of risk involved with this hire, but I think it makes sense for a program like Syracuse to take a swing like this and go for a boom-or-bust name. This is one of the toughest jobs in FBS football and won't be getting any easier as the ACC changes in the coming years. Brown gives them a relentless recruiter and a new energy than Babers and even if it doesn't work out, it's clear the Orange are still pulling out the stops to build a competitive football program to match their work on the hardwood.


Texas A&M Aggies

Out: Jimbo Fisher (fired)

In: Mike Elko (Duke HC)

Jimbo Fisher's uncertain future was one of the most fascinating storylines to watch entering 2023 and despite a strong start, three losses in four games through October and November led to the program making a drastic change. Jimbo will get to ride off into the sunset with the largest buyout in college football history, at nearly $80 million, while a new figure takes over on the sidelines in College Station.

That coach happens to be a familiar name in Mike Elko, who served as Texas A&M's defensive coordinator from 2018-2021. Since his working with the Aggie defense, Elko spent the last two seasons in Durham, North Carolina, running a successful operation at Duke, with the Blue Devils going 16-9 under his leadership. His return seems to be all about building stability in a program that has gone through a wild last few years and has seen massive personnel and staff changes as of late. Elko understands the  challenges A&M is up against, and the unique aspects of the school's culture that may rub others the wrong way. He understands what the school needs to succeed, and seems to have a good handle on the external noise that will be following him throughout his tenure. With all that being said, A&m is a pressure cooker, one of the most difficult jobs in the SEC. After just two years of being a head coach at a low pressure place like Duke, is Elko truly ready for this? The good news is that the roster remains incredibly talented and there is a quarterback of the future in the fold in Conner Weigman, assuming he can recover from a foot injury that cost him the final three months of 2023. The bad news? Texas and Oklahoma arrive in the SEC, adding an elevated level of importance to each and every Saturday in College Station.


Washington Huskies

Out: Kalen DeBoer (took Alabama job)

In: Jedd Fisch, Arizona HC

Following one of the greatest two-year stretches in school history, Washington has been hit hard by attrition over the offseason. Kalen DeBoer's shocking decision to take the Alabama job, paired with Michael Penix graduating and a wave of transfers has the 2023 National Runner-up in rebuild mode as they prepare for 2024. However, the program responded in a big way by luring Jedd Fisch out of Arizona to take DeBoer's departed post.

It won't be the first time Fisch coaches in Seattle, although the first at this level, previously serving as Seattle Seahawk QB coach back in 2010. He's had an interesting journey to this position, bouncing around between NFL and college, but there is little denying what a superb job he did at Arizona, winning ten games in Year Three this fall. Washington certainly will be a different job in a multitude of ways, but he'll have more resources in Seattle, plenty of fertile recruiting hotbeds throughout the state, and an administration that is committed to building a winning football program. All of those factors will be important to consider, as the debut season could be a strange one, with the Huskies set to begin life in the Big Ten alongside USC, UCLA, and Oregon. A step-back from the heights of 2023 is almost a certainty, but this is all about the long-term play for Fisch, and he has already proven he can build up programs in a hurry.


Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Big Ten Power Rankings 2023-24: Edition 2

Boo Buie, Northwestern

* records updated through the morning of 1/17/2024

 1. Purdue Boilermakers (15-2 overall, 4-2 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 1

The Purdue Boilermakers haven't been perfect through the initial stretch of Big Ten league play, but the conference's best roster top-to-bottom means that they remain team to beat until someone proves differently. Zach Edey remains the obvious advantage as he races towards what could be a second consecutive National Player of the Year Award, but the deeper we get into the season, the more importance the play of this backcourt will be on Purdue's eventual success. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer have shown displayed growth over the course of their sophomore seasons and made this offense much more explosive, but it's the play of Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones that has been the welcome surprise. The fifth-year vet has been playing key minutes and putting up productive numbers across the board, scoring in double-digits in four straight contests. More importantly, his experience is what this backcourt was lacking a season ago, leading to their eventual demise - Jones could help flip the script this time around.

2. Wisconsin Badgers (13-3 overall, 5-0 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 3

Since jumping out to their first 5-0 start in the conference since 2007-08, the Badgers were caught up in the chaos of the week, losing on the road Tuesday night to Penn State. It's certainly no cause for concern, and they have an opportunity to immediately make amends over the weekend against Indiana. Now at 5-1, their record has been buoyed by the fact the Badgers have gotten three of their first five at home and avoided nearly all of the other conference heavyweights, but this isn't a case of a team beating up on inferior opponents - Wisconsin has won each of their five league games by double-digits. Things will pick up with a tough end to the month and difficult early February, but the Badgers haven't shown any signs of slowing down - they could easily rise to the top spot in these rankings in short order.

3. Illinois Fighting Illini (12-4 overall, 3-2 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 2

Despite all the controversy that surrounds star Terrance Shannon Jr. off-the-court, the Fighting Illini have been impressive on the hardwood through mid-January. Senior forward Marcus Domask has stepped up and taken on a leading role as a scorer, but it's the frontcourt that appears to be the X-factor for the Illini going forward. Quincy Guerrier and Coleman Hawkins have been productive when healthy, but I'm still waiting to see if big man Dain Dainja can reach another gear after a slow start to the campaign. Dainja averaged nearly 21 minutes per game in 2022-23, but has seen his role diminished to single-digit minutes this winter. As the Illini hit the meat of Big Ten play and consistently square off against the elite bigs the league has to offer, Dainja feels like the type of player who could see his role expand.

4. Northwestern Wildcats (12-4 overall, 3-2 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 4

A 30-point blowout loss to begin January seemed like an ominous sign for Northwestern, but the Wildcats have quickly righted the ship with victories in two of their last three (and the only defeat coming at the hands of the flaming hot Wisconsin Badgers). Boo Buie continues to be one of the league's most dominant offensive weapons, but it's the Wildcat supporting cast that doesn't receive the respect it deserves. Performances like Brooks Barnhizer's 23-point outburst to power past Penn State or Ty Berry's 22-point showing against Michigan State were lacking at times last winter, showcasing the depth that Chris Collins has worked hard to build. That should help carry this team deep into league play, with the schedule set to pick up in a major way in late January.

5. Nebraska Cornhuskers (13-4 overall, 3-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 14

Not since 2014 under Tim Miles have the Nebraska Cornhuskers played in an NCAA Tournament, but the 2023-2024 edition looks like they have a legitimate shot to change that in Lincoln. It was difficult to read get a read on this team after a soft non-conference slate, but the 'Huskers have proven their worth in Big Ten play up to this point, with two of the most impressive conference wins of the season over Purdue and Indiana. Both games felt like the culmination of all the hard work Fred Hoiberg has done in turning around this downtrodden program - they took care of the basketball, shot the ball incredibly well, and fed off the energy that a revived Pinnacle Bank Arena has to offer. There certainly is plenty of work to be done, but this is a well-rounded basketball team that has no issues going up against the top dogs of the conference - they're going to be a tough out down the stretch.

6. Indiana Hoosiers (12-6 overall, 4-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 5

Leaning on a young, albeit talented core, it's no surprise that Indiana has looked incredibly streaky over the early portion of league play. They've beat just about everyone they should, with Rutgers being the notable exception, but weren't competitive in a 21-point drubbing at the hands of arch-rival Purdue on Tuesday night. One can somewhat excuse the loss considering it was at Mackey Arena, but it's clear this team is going to need more production from their backcourt if they have any hopes of keeping their NCAA Tournament dreams alive. That likely hinges on veteran Xavier Johnson getting not only back to 100 percent, but getting back into the swing of things in this offense. Johnson has missed seven games with an ankle injury, and then was held out of the starting lineup for the second straight game during the Purdue loss. He's far too important to be coming off the bench, even if Trey Galloway has stepped up and handled the scoring burden in recent contests.

7. Iowa Hawkeyes (11-6 overall, 3-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 9

It looked like Iowa was bound for a rebuilding campaign after an 0-3 start to Big Ten action, but one thing has become increasingly clear now that he's the program's all-time wins leader: never count out Fran McCaffery. His Hawkeyes have responded by winning three straight, including an 18-point victory over Nebraska in Iowa City and an impressive road win over Minnesota. Now all of the sudden, Iowa's postseason hopes are renewed, although they have plenty of work to do to build up a resume that is short on quality wins. That could change over the weekend, as the Hawkeyes welcome Zach Edey and Purdue to town in a game that is sure to keep the scoreboard operators busy.

8. Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-5 overall, 3-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 11

Considering Minnesota managed just two league victories all of 2022-23, three conference wins at this point in the season is a remarkable achievement for Ben Johnson and company. With that being said, two straight ugly losses have erased the notion of a potential "Cinderella" story in the Twin Cities and left the team scrambling for answers as they prep for a road trip to East Lansing. The road defeat to Indiana was certainly understandable considering Minnesota's longtime struggles at Assembly Hall, but the poor showing against Iowa felt deflating. Elijah Hawkins and Mike Mitchell have been significant improvements over what the Gophers had a season ago, but both have struggled to find a consistent rhythm shooting the ball and in Hawkins case, he's been a complete liability on the defensive end of the court. There's plenty of time to figure things out and two consecutive defeats is nothing to panic about in this league, but the schedule shows no signs of slowing down - not since 2015 have the Gophers gone into Spartan territory and come out on top against Michigan State.

9. Maryland Terrapins (11-6 overall, 3-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 8

For as concerning as Maryland's non-conference performance was at times, the Terps have managed to figure things out through the early Big Ten slate and a road win at Illinois over the weekend showcased their full potential. Against the Illini, Maryland finally found their offense over a full 40 minutes but more importantly, put together their most complete stretch of defense on the year, holding Illinois to just 33% from the field and under 28% from three. That bodes well for the Terrapins as they begin a difficult stretch of games against explosive offenses, including Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa, and Nebraska to wrap up the month.

10. Michigan State Spartans (10-7 overall, 2-4 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 7

This is not the first time we've seen Michigan State struggle through non-conference and the early Big Ten slate, but time is running out for this team to turn it into high gear. Fortunately, the last few weeks have given for optimism - for one, beating Rutgers soundly was a nice start, but more important was the fact the Spartans gave Illinois all they could handle in Champaign before coming up short, 71-68. Others are finally starting to emerge offensively beyond just Tyson Walker, notably Malik Hall, and the defense has looked reinvigorated their last two times out. Obviously, there's a lot of work to be done, but this is beginning to feel more and more like the makings of another magical late season run from Tom Izzo. 

11. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-5 overall, 2-4 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 6

Three straight losses, including one to an extremely beatable Michigan team, has Chris Holtmann going back to the drawing board as the Buckeyes prepare for a road-heavy next several weeks. The main problem is painstakingly clear: the offense has completely disappeared, which has included a disastrous three-point shooting slump that few could overcome. Jamison Battle has still been shooting the ball well, even coming off a rough showing against Michigan, but the Buckeyes are lacking any other scorer who can consistently score from deep. That's left them looking to bruise down low, an ineffective method against many of the physical and defensively sound Big Ten teams on their schedule. It's up to Holtmann to come up with something new and different to spark things, or else the season could continue its downward spiral quick considering the upcoming schedule.

12. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-9 overall, 3-4 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 13

Penn State almost certainly is not going to the postseason in the debut campaign of head coach Mike Rhoades, but this remains a feisty Nittany Lion team that could surprise a few folks down the stretch. After three losses in the previous four games, including a pair of blowouts, Penn State pulled off a major upset by knocking Wisconsin from the ranks of the undefeated. They remain a team that can scratch and claw their way into just about any matchup in the conference, and are the just about the last team you want to see on the road or on a short week of rest. That may not sound like much after the highs of the 2022-23 season in Happy Valley, but building a program in this league is never easy, and Rhoades will hope to bring these positives forward as they look ahead to next season.

13. Michigan Wolverines (7-10 overall, 2-4 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 12

Was the magic of the Fab Five's return to Ann Arbor all Michigan needed to turn around a season that was heading for disaster? It seems unlikely, but the Wolverines at least gathered some momentum after a 73-65 home win against Ohio State. They're going to need it as they prepare for stretch that includes Illinois and road trips to Purdue and East Lansing, particularly considering star guard Dug McDaniel's suspension. But, even that suspension is a perfect representation of just how strange this winter has been - McDaniel is suspended for road games only, but still expected to dress for games at the Crisler Center. It's simply continuation of a sense of uneasiness that has pervaded the program for some time now, and has Wolverine fans already looking forward to football season.

14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-7 overall, 1-4 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 10

A season-opening loss to instate foe Princeton set the stage for what has been a frustrating 2023-24 in Piscataway, which has only continued in conference play. The Scarlet Knights are off to a 1-4 start in the conference, and the momentum gained in their lone win over Indiana was quickly erased by an 18-point defeat at the hands of Michigan State. There's still hope things can be turned around, but Rutgers desperately needs their offense to find some type of rhythm - perhaps a fully healthy Mawot Mag could be that spark. Mag, who has played in just eight games this season, has scored in double-digits in each of his last four games, including 24 against Iowa. 

Saturday, January 13, 2024

College Football Way-Too-Early Top 25 for 2024

Quinn Ewers, Texas

1. Georgia Bulldogs

Kirby Smart's Bulldogs may not have been able to pull off the three-peat, but Georgia remains an absolute machine who should be entrenched as a National Title frontrunner every single year. There will be notable names moving on as there always is in Athens, namely tight end Brock Bowers, but the Bulldogs received quite a treat when quarterback Carson Beck announced he would be back for the 2024 campaign. Beck was impressive as a first-year starter this past fall and should enter next season as a Heisman favorite, although the supporting cast around him will still have to materialize. With that being said, it's likely names like Ladd McConkey, Dillon Bell, and Arian Smith will be back in action on the perimeter, with Oscar Delp a prime breakout candidate at tight end. On the defensive side of things, the usual collection of NFL Draft selections will depart, but elite defensive back Malaki Starks gives the Bulldogs a fine starting point. The key, however, will be whether Georgia's front seven can return to its 2021 and 2022 ways after a bit of a "down" 2023. There's no shortage of talent, but several pieces will need to emerge if Kirby and company are to take home their third National Title in four years next fall.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

For as frustrating as three straight losses to arch-rival Michigan have been, Ohio State should take solace in the fact they've played the last two National Champions awfully tight and remain on the cusp of something special. Is 2024 the team that can finally get Ryan Day over the top in Columbus? There seems like a window here, particularly if the transfers Day and staff have brought in acclimate quickly, namely Will Howard and Quinshon Judkins. Howard comes over from Kansas State and brings ample experience and the ability to create with his legs. He's no C.J. Stroud, but seems to be an upgrade over the departed Kyle McCord, and has loads of talent to work with throughout the Buckeye offense. Meanwhile, Judkins will hope to spark an Ohio State ground game that has lacked bite over the last two seasons. He'll pair up with tailback TreVeyon Henderson, who made the surprising decision to hold off on the pros for one more season. On defense, the Buckeyes will return several key pieces, including corner Denzel Burke and defensive linemen Tyleik Williams, both of whom could have been first day NFL Draft selections. Just as important, coordinator Jim Knowles looks set to run it back for the third time with this defense after stellar showings in his first two seasons at the helm - 2024 could be the year this group cements itself as one of the best in the country.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

I had Alabama perched at No. 1 in the initial draft of these rankings before Nick Saban's bombshell retirement earlier in the week, creating loads of intrigue in Tuscaloosa as the Tide prepare for 2024. Now Kalen DeBoer takes over, and will have the unenviable task of replacing the greatest college football coach of all-time. Fortunately, he is blessed with a loaded roster on both sides of the ball. That includes stability at the quarterback position and what should be an improved offensive line, two of the most notable weaknesses for Alabama throughout the 2023 campaign. The defense is going to be in for a rebuild, with names like Dallas Turner, Kool-Aid McKinstry, and Terrion Arnold all set to move on. But, this is Alabama and there's no shortage of talent waiting in the wings, including one of the best young defenders in all of the land, Caleb Downs. Downs' 107 tackles were the most by a Tide freshman in decades and the encore could be even more exciting, as he'll play an outsized role on this new-look team in 2024.

4. Texas Longhorns

A new era in the SEC begins for the Texas Longhorns, but Steve Sarkisian has built up the program to the point that the move up in competition shouldn't be a problem. On both lines of scrimmage and at the skill positions, the Longhorns now resemble an elite SEC team, a testament to the work this staff has not only done on the recruiting trail, but in the player development department. The depth throughout the roster should be huge, as plenty of notable pieces move on, and the core remains one of the best in college football. Quarterback Quinn Ewers could be going pro, but my money is that the gunslinger will be back for one more run in Austin, and he has a rising star joining him in the backfield in C.J. Baxter. Defensively, there will be reloading to do up front, but linebacker Anthony Hill gives the front seven a proven commodity to work with, and the secondary could actually improve this next season. The schedule may be tougher top-to-bottom, but Sark and company showed that they deserve to be in the conversation of college football's elite last fall - now it's time to double down and prove it in 2024.

5. Michigan Wolverines

After nearly a decade in charge at his alma mater, Jim Harbaugh climbed the mountaintop and secured Michigan their first National Title since sharing the honor in 1997. It's a special moment for Wolverine fans who have endured plenty of ups-and-downs going all the way back to the end of the Lloyd Carr era, but a celebration that also comes with some trepidation. Harbaugh has been pretty open regarding his interest in returning to the NFL and once again, it's likely the Wolverines will endure another offseason of will he or won't he in Ann Arbor. Despite that, the prognosis for 2024 still appears promising, especially if quarterback J.J. McCarthy returns, which feels likely. He'll have to make do without trusty sidekick Blake Corum in the backfield, but other faces appear ready to step up and lead the offense, such as versatile wide out Semaj Morgan. On the other side of the ball, there's going to be plenty of names off to the NFL, but there's not a school in the country that reloads as well on this side of the ball as Michigan. They do an excellent job not just reeling in elite talent, but bringing in players that fit their culture and scheme, which should ensure there's little to no drop-off this upcoming fall. It's hard to say definitively one way or the other whether the Wolverines can repeat in 2024 with Harbaugh's future so in doubt but at the very least, they should be firmly in the mix.

6. Ole Miss Rebels

Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss have been winners of the early offseason, making splash after splash in the transfer portal after an 11-win 2023 campaign. Does this mean they're ready to make a jump and seriously contend for a National Title? Losing Quinshon Judkins, who made a rather surprising decision to enter the portal and eventually move on to Ohio State, certainly hurts, but QB Jaxson Dart should ensure the offense keeps on humming. Yet, it's the defensive side of the ball I'm the most interested in, as Kiffin and staff have been reeling in elite defenders from the portal just about daily. That includes Texas A&M transplant Walter Nolen, who I believe has a chance to be the most dominant defensive linemen in all of America this next fall. It will be fascinating to see how well the defense, and team in general, meshes after so many came in through the portal. On paper, the Rebels have enough talent to make the College Football Playoff, especially in the expanded 12-team field, but ensuring all the pieces fit together will decide their fate in the upcoming year.

7. Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State has been stuck as third wheel to Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten East for years but as the league prepares to expand, they're hoping it's the catalyst they need to jump up and win a conference title. That's not to say it will be easy, with the addition of four strong programs from the West Coast, but the Nittany Lions are well-built to take advantage of this new era of Big Ten football. The roster is loaded with young talent still coming into its own, which includes quarterback Drew Allar, set to begin his second season as starter in 2024. Allar was productive in Year One running the offense, but left something to be desired, particularly in big games and moments. Fortunately, he has a two-headed monster at tailback to help him out in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, and potentially a new top target in Ohio State transfer Julian Fleming. The defense will be in transition mode after coordinator Manny Diaz took the Duke head coaching job, but were blessed with several surprising returnees to their defensive line, plus a rising star in linebacker Abdul Carter.

8. Clemson Tigers

2021 and 2022 saw Clemson slip in national standing, but 2023 was the wake up call Dabo Swinney and the Tigers needed, or so they hope. This team was far better than a nine-win team, and a .500 showing in a weak ACC is inexcusable. Perhaps that should add extra motivation for a program that remains as talented as ever, but one still working on getting all the parts to fit together. That includes quarterback Cade Klubnik, who had his fair share of rocky moments in his first season as starter, but did enough to believe there could be a chance for major improvement in 2024. He will have the advantage of having his play-caller back for a full offseason, assuming OC Garrett Riley stays put, but also more responsibility on his shoulders now that tailback Will Shipley is set to move on. The defense also moves several program staples, but has loads of young talent on the defensive line, and the linebacker corps could be the best in the ACC in 2024, as Barrett Carter returns for a fifth year and five-star freshman Sammy Brown brings an injection of energy. Just as important as the product on the field for Clemson is the landscape of the ACC - Florida State seems in store for a rebuilding campaign, and no other program has shown they can consistently hang with the Tigers in this league. Needless to say, that bodes well for Clemson's chances to have a redemptive campaign and return to the Playoff next fall.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

2024 feels like it's going to be a huge year for Marcus Freeman to show he is the long-term answer in South Bend. Freeman has had two good teams at Notre Dame and is now 19-8 total, but Year Three is likely to tell us whether he can bring them to an elite level on the national stage. Freeman brought in a transfer quarterback from the ACC for the second straight year in Duke's Riley Leonard, one of the game's most electrifying players when fully healthy. Freeman also went out and made one of the splashier coordinator hires of the coaching carousel by luring Mike Denbrock away from LSU after he helped Jayden Daniels bring a Heisman to Baton Rouge. Those two additions put the offense in a good place, but the X-factor remains out wide - can someone finally emerge at receiver to help the Irish go toe-to-toe with the true giants of the sport? The good news is that the defense looks like it will be one of the best in the country, with veteran pieces like safety Xavier Watts and linebacker Jack Kiser set to return.

10. Oregon Ducks

Life in the Big Ten begins for Oregon, and they will do so with a new face under center after Bo Nix exhausted his collegiate eligibility. Fortunately, the Ducks went out and landed not only a QB that can help them win immediately in former UCF and Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel, but the type of long-term prospect they need to win in their new home in former five-star Dante Moore. Gabriel, who looks to be locked into the starting job for 2024, has the type of arm to lift the entire offense, which will be needed as they replace key names like Mar'Keise Irving and Troy Franklin. The defense looks to be in very good shape, as they'll return the vast majority of a unit that was strong throughout 2023, with the Washington losses being notable exceptions. Adding Kansas State transfer Kobe Savage gives this team a hard-hitting, enforcer type that they've been lacking at times in recent years.

11. Missouri Tigers

Missouri's surprising 11-2, Cotton Bowl season was no fluke from Eli Drinkwitz and company - this program has a chance to cement themselves in the upper echelon of the SEC in 2024. Quarterback Brady Cook and wide receiver Luther Burden III could be the nation's top QB-WR combo next fall, and Theo Wease's return came as a welcome surprise in the last week. Those returnees will ensure the aerial attack is on its "A" game in 2024, particularly as the Tigers lose tailback Cody Schrader after a monster year. On the other side of the ball, coordinator Blake Baker parlayed Missouri's success into the same gig at LSU, but the unit's performance shouldn't drop off a cliff. Drinkwitz and staff have done a great job filling holes in the transfer portal, and they also welcome one of the nation's top freshman in defensive end Williams Nwaneri, who will play from Day One. There's plenty of reason to believe the momentum will keep on rolling here and the expanded Playoff provides ample opportunity - if the SEC was still in its division structure, I'd argue the Tigers have a legitimate shot to challenge Georgia for SEC East supremacy.

12. Washington Huskies

The Huskies may have been unable to finish the job and complete the perfect 15-0 season, and Kalen DeBoer's decision to take the Alabama job is a major gut punch.  Yet, something tells me thatWashington isn't done just yet as they move on to the Big Ten. There will be a new QB now that Michael Penix departs, which looked to be Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers before DeBoer's decision, forcing him to reenter the portal. Whoever does end up starting will need others to emerge at the skill positions, and replacements along the O-Line, which took home the Joe Moore Award this past fall. Defensively, this group epitomized a bend not break mantra, and they could once again in 2024. They'll lose a major name up front in Bralen Trice, a likely first-rounder this spring, but should return plenty of experience throughout the back seven.

13. Florida State Seminoles

Needless to say, it was a disappointing conclusion to an otherwise special season in Tallahassee, which will likely provide an extra sense of motivation around the Florida State football program into 2024. Unfortunately, the losses on both sides of the ball are likely to be severe, although Mike Norvell and staff have done enough to keep this team on track towards a second straight ACC Title. D.J. Uiagalelei is set to take over at quarterback for the departed Jordan Travis after a one year pit stop at Oregon State. Uiagalelei is unlikely to ever fully live up to his five-star billing, but the one-time Clemson QB has proven to be a steady signal-caller who shouldn't have issues keeping the rest of this offense rolling. With that being said, others are going to have to emerge, with top playmakers like Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson off to the NFL. The defense will be hit hard by attrition up front, but the staff has done excellent work so far in the portal and on the back-end, Shyheim Brown has a chance to cement himself as one of the best in America after playing a team-high 677 snaps in 2023. 

14. Tennessee Volunteers

Volunteer fans got a sneak peek of the future in Tennessee's 35-0 dismantling of Iowa in the Cheez-It Bowl, and 2024 is likely to bring more fireworks to Knoxville. Head coach Josh Heupel has the personnel to develop one of the nation's most explosive offenses, assuming young quarterback Nico Iamaleava can grow up quickly after starting the bowl game. It's early, but Iamaleava is the most talented Tennessee quarterback since Peyton Manning, and he has two of the best wide outs in the SEC joining him in Squirrel White and Bru McCoy, who should be healthy next fall after missing a big chunk of 2023. The offense is going to have to live up to the hype, because the defense is likely to be a work in progress once again, with key transfers at all three levels. Defensive coordinator Tim Banks was considered a candidate for several head coaching vacancies over the offseason, including inside the state at Middle Tennessee, but this fall he'll have to prove his worth with so much turnover.

15. USC Trojans

After a frustrating campaign that saw the Trojans slip to 8-5 and with rumors swirling about Lincoln Riley's future, USC's offseason so far has been decidedly ... normal. Now, that could change, but Riley appears to be staying put, and made the necessary change on the defensive side of the ball by firing Alex Grinch and bringing on D'Anton Lynn from crosstown rival UCLA. Lynn will have to overhaul a unit that couldn't stop anyone in 2023 and could be in store for a rude awakening as they enter Big Ten play, although there is no shortage of talent on that side of the ball. Offensively, no coach gets more from his playmakers than Riley, although there has been some question in the early offseason on who would get the first crack at replacing Caleb Williams at quarterback. It appears like it will be Miller Moss, who has been with the program for several seasons and threw for six touchdowns in the Holiday Bowl win, but USC also brought on UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava late in the process. Maiava broke the 3,000-yard threshold playing in a fun Rebel offense this past season and was initially pledged to Georgia before a sudden flip. He's likely to push Moss into the spring and deep into fall camp, which could add a layer of intrigue to this program as they begin a new day in a new league.

16. Utah Utes

Considering the circumstances, Utah should feel proud of the fact they were able to muster together an eight-win campaign. Quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe missed the entire year and tailback Micah Bernard just about, robbing the Utes of three of their most important pieces offensively. The trio is all back and hopefully healthy for 2024, but the offense is still in for an adjustment after the transfer of leading rusher Ja'Quinden Jackson. Kyle Whittingham-coached teams always play elite defense and I suspect that will be the case again this year, although there are some big names moving on, notably safeties Cole Bishop and Sione Vaki. Fortunately, there's enough returning up front to ensure the Utes remain as stout and physical as ever, which should give them a leg up on the competition in the new-look Big 12.

17. Arizona Wildcats

Arizona was one of the biggest surprises in the country in 2023, as Jedd Fisch's team won ten games in just his third season at the helm. Even so, it feels like the Wildcats and Fisch aren't getting the type of national attention they deserve, pretty remarkable considering they won one single game less than two years ago. That could change with an impressive encore in 2024, and the roster has all the makings to do just that. Quarterback Noah Fifita played a key role in Arizona's turnaround and has the opportunity to build on it in 2024, particularly with top target Tetairoa McMillan set to return. Tailback Jonah Coleman is likely to join them, giving the Wildcats plenty of weapons at the skill positions, all operating behind an offensive line set to bring back just about everyone. The defense is set to experience some turnover and roster shakeup but finished this past season strong, which is likely to provide the necessary momentum they need to thrive in their move to the Big 12. 

18. Oklahoma Sooners

Yet another team set to begin life in a new conference, Oklahoma will be eager to show what they can do in the SEC after ruling the Big 12 for most of the 2010s and early 2020s. Head coach Brent Venables oversaw healthy improvements on both sides of the ball as the Sooners went 10-3, but the coaching staff still experienced shakeup over the offseason, with OC Jeff Lebby taking the Mississippi State and Venables parting with DC Ted Roof. Oklahoma is still going to score, with Jackson Arnold set to take over for Dillon Gabriel under center, but it's the defense that is always the X-factor in Norman. It's clear Venables felt that Roof wasn't the right fit to lead the Sooner defense into this new era, but the good news is that the personnel appears in fairly good shape. Oklahoma plugged holes through the portal up front and have plenty of contributors returning in the back-seven, including linebacker Danny Stutsman, who made the surprising decision to run it back for one final go with the Sooners. Still, it will be an adjustment as OU begins an SEC schedule, loaded with a November that includes road trips to Missouri and LSU, plus a home game with Alabama, but it's Venables has enough here to keep them in the conference title mix.

19. LSU Tigers

Despite a pair of ten-win seasons to open up his tenure and a Heisman performance from Jayden Daniels, Brian Kelly didn't miss around this offseason. He fired defensive coordinator Matt House and several key assistants, and is looking at a potentially splashy offensive coordinator hire after Mike Denbrock took the same job at Notre Dame. Whoever does take over at OC may not have Jayden Daniels or superstar wide out Malik Nabers, but Garrett Nussmeier has looked impressive in relief duties and appears ready to slide into a starting role. New faces will have to emerge out wide, but Nussmeier will have the benefit of working behind one of the SEC's best offensive lines, which helped supercharge Daniels' Heisman season. Blake Baker comes over from Missouri to run the defense and will look to breath new life into a group that felt lifeless throughout most of 2023. Can he get Harold Perkins back on track after a surprisingly quiet sophomore season? Rebuilding the secondary will also be a key priority after the Tigers missed on several transfers in the defensive backfield this past offseason.

20. Liberty Flames

Liberty's inclusion into a New Year's Six bowl game as the nation's Group of Five representative was certainly controversial, and a blowout loss to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl seemed to prove many of the detractors correct. But, that shouldn't completely erase what was all in all a very successful first season in the Conference USA, which saw the Flames win a conference title and go 13-0. The early returns from the offseason have been promising, too - head coach Jamey Chadwell remains a hot commodity in the coaching carousel but decided to stay put, while quarterback Kaidon Salter is set to return after a brief moment testing his options in the portal. The defense will undergo a bit of a rebuilding stage, but the Liberty staff has been working hard in the portal, and the secondary returns ample experience, most notably at the cornerback spots. Add in a schedule that is once again buttery soft, it's not crazy to think Liberty could be in the mix for a spot in the expanded Playoff, especially with six conference champions locking down automatic berths.

21. Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas continued on their upwards trajectory in 2023, winning nine games - which becomes even more impressive when you consider that star QB Jalon Daniels missed most of the year with a back injury. Daniels is back and should be back close to 100 percent, giving the Jayhawks one of the most exciting players in the Big 12. He'll be joined by a host of proven playmakers, including tailback Devin Neal, and wide outs Lawrence Arnold and Quentin Skinner. They give new offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes a whole lot to play with as he takes over the reigns of the offense from Andy Kotelnicki, who toook the same role at Penn State. The big news on the defense is the departure of fearsome edge rusher Austin Booker after he tallied eight sacks for the Jayhawks in 2023. Fortunately, the secondary gives this unit a good starting point, as proven corners Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson have both announced they'll be back in Lawrence next fall.

22. Louisville Cardinals

Jeff Brohm returned to his alma mater and promptly brought them to the ACC Championship Game, and his encore campaign could be even better. New faces will take center stage offensively with Jack Plummer and Jawhar Jordan set to leave, but Brohm's work in the portal should pay immediate dividends. Expect former Oregon and Texas Tech transfer Tyler Shough to get the first crack at the starting quarterback job, while Peny Boone arrives from Toledo to bolster the running back room. The defense should return a lot and is in line for significant improvement after an up-and-down 2023 season. Defensive end Ashton Gillotte is one of the most underrated defenders anywhere in the country after tallying 11 sacks last fall.

23. Oklahoma State Cowboys

For all the changes the Big 12 has seen and is yet to see, Mike Gundy remains a constant. The Oklahoma State head man is set to begin his 20th season in charge in Stillwater in 2024, and he'll do so with the help of his star tailback, Ollie Gordon. Gordon led all FBS rushers with 1,732 yards this past season and should be considered a preseason Heisman candidate entering next year. Fortunately, Gordon is not the only key Cowboy set to return, as QB Alan Bowman was granted another season of eligibility, and all five offensive linemen are expected to return. The defense loses a couple key names from a unit that was just about average across the board in 2023, but they'll be bolstered by the return of tackling machine Nickolas Martin at linebacker, who had 140 stops this past fall.

24. Tulane Green Wave

It felt like only a matter of time before Willie Fritz was going to move on from Tulane and he decided this offseason was the one to make the jump, taking the Houston job. However, the program rebounded nicely by snagging Troy head man Jon Sumrall, a rising name in the profession who should keep the momentum going here. Sumrall got an early win when he convinced Oregon transfer Ty Thompson to head on south, giving the Green Wave a gifted signal-caller who was considered a five-star prospect by some coming out of the high school ranks. Thompson will lead the offense, while the defense is expected to be in a good spot thanks to the likely return of linebacker Jesus Machado and several others throughout the front seven. Add in the fact that SMU's departure makes the Green Wave a clear favorite in the new-look American Athletic, expect Sumrall to hit the ground running and have this team in the mix for the expanded College Football Playoff field.

25. NC State Wolfpack

Dave Doeren's NC State program just keeps on consistently winning, and they're set up to succeed once again in 2024. With Brennan Armstrong graduating and M.J. Morris transferring, it's Grayson McCall time, as the former Coastal Carolina transfer makes the jump to the ACC. McCall is a unique quarterback but an extremely accomplished one, and he'll have plenty to work with. That includes wide out Kevin Concepcion, who was a revelation as a freshman by hauling in 71 passes for 839 yards. The defense will miss two program staples in Payton Wilson and Jaylon Scott, but appears to still be in fairly good shape. The defensive line returns loads of experience and while the secondary loses several key pieces, there is help coming in through the portal.