Big Ten Basketball: Predicting How Far Each Team Will Go in the 2023 NCAA Tournament

Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana

Year-in, year-out, the Big Ten is considered one of the premier conferences in college basketball but there remains one gigantic elephant in the room: the lack of National Titles. No Big Ten team has won a National Championship since Mateen Cleaves and Michigan State in 2000 and no, Maryland's 2002 National Title doesn't count. As we gear up for another NCAA Tournament with a host of Big Ten teams set to compete, the quest for that elusive championship takes center stage. As many as nine teams could be in the field, but do any of them have a shot at being the last team standing in April?

Safely In

Purdue Boilermakers: The Boilermakers have been perched atop the Big Ten standings essentially the entire season and spent several weeks ranked No. 1 overall. There's a lot to like about this team, namely Zach Edey and a host of capable complementary pieces, but the last several weeks have raised some real concerns around Matt Painter's team. The two freshman guards in the backcourt is one thing I've always been wary about; Braden Smith and Foster Loyer have exceeded expectations, but the NCAA Tournament is a whole different beast. They've struggled with consistency, not surprising considering their youth, and it wouldn't be shocking if they get exposed by a team with superior guard play. There's also the fact that Painter's teams have traditionally struggled in March. I've always thought this criticism was slightly overblown and a bit unfair, but it is something to consider when evaluating their NCAA Tournament hopes. Nobody can question Painter's ability to build a roster, but it feels like he's been out-coached in pivotal March moments throughout his tenure in West Lafayette. It makes me hesitant to pick Purdue to go deep, even if I do like a lot of pieces on this roster. I don't envision an epic collapse keeping them away from the second weekend, but I don't think a long stay is in the cards either.

Prediction: Sweet 16

Indiana Hoosiers: It's been a wild season in Bloomington. The Hoosiers started off 1-4 in conference play and looked destined for a massive disappointment, before becoming one of the league's hottest teams since a mid-January defeat on the road to Penn State. They not only racked up victories, they beat arch-rival Purdue twice in a season for the first time since 2013. As we look ahead towards the NCAA Tournament, this feels like it could be the league's ultimate wild card. They have legitimate Final Four potential when they're playing well, or they could be in store for a first round exit. Trayce Jackson-Davis remains one of the best anywhere in the country, but the supporting cast can be awfully hit or miss. It's also disappointing to hear veteran guard Xavier Johnson won't be able to return this season, a player who could have given this team the spark they need for an extended run. For a team that feels boom-or-bust, I'm going to hedge my bets and project a Sweet 16 finish.

Prediction: Sweet 16

Northwestern Wildcats: No matter what happens the rest of the way, Northwestern should be incredibly proud of their accomplishments this winter. They entered the year looking like a bottom dweller in the league, and head coach Chris Collins was on a flaming hot seat. Instead, they've been one of the most consistent teams in the conference and could be in store for an exciting March. I actually believe this team is still a tad underrated nationally; they feature incredibly strong guard play that could fuel postseason success. Boo Buie and Chase Audige are two veterans who can overwhelm opponents, and the Wildcats have been able to survive despite a thin frontcourt. Interestingly enough, this will be just the second NCAA Tournament ever for the program, and probably their best chance at a deep run they've ever had. Last time they were part of the field of 68, the Wildcats won a wacky one over Vanderbilt before being dispatched by No. 1 seed Gonzaga. This team should have an easier path to the second weekend, but there are no easy wins in this tournament. 

Prediction: Second Round

Michigan State Spartans: Although they haven't hoisted a National Title in over two decades, few programs exceed expectations in March quite like Michigan State. Tom Izzo's teams always turn it up a notch during the most important part of the season, and typically go a round or two farther than most would expect. This year could be no different, as the Spartans have finished the season winning five of their last seven and seem to be gaining momentum entering the NCAA Tournament. They have two impressive lead guards in Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard that can carry a team, but the other pieces have been inconsistent. Joey Hauser has turned it up a notch this season, but Malik Hall has got to be the X-factor. He missed a bunch of time early on in the year but seems to be closing in on 100 percent; if he can finish his senior season strong, this MSU team is extremely dangerous. Even so, I'm not sure they have the offensive firepower to make a deep run this year, even if they will be a tough out for any team they play.

Prediction: Second Round

Iowa Hawkeyes: Give Iowa and Fran McCaffery credit. This team could have folded after an 0-3 start to Big Ten play and a shocking loss at home to Eastern Illinois. Instead, they finished 11-9 in the conference and could be the highest-seeded Big Ten team outside of the state of Indiana. Kris Murray has been the main fuel of the offense, but it's the growth of senior big Filip Rebraca that's been most surprising to me. The former North Dakota transfer has become a true offensive threat, averaging 14 PPG and shooting 58% from the field. Add in sharpshooting Peyton Sandfort and explosive guard Tony Perkins, and the Hawkeyes are awfully dangerous. Yet, it feels like the same issues that have persisted throughout the McCaffery era remain. As good as the offense is, the defense is atrocious, and Iowa has occasionally struggled to close out games. I think they should be good enough for a win or two, but this is another program with March demons to overcome. Last season felt like it could be the year, and they were shocked by 12th-seeded Richmond. They may get an even tougher draw this year based on seeding, so it's hard to feel particularly confident about anything with this team heading into the postseason.

Prediction: Second Round

Illinois Fighting Illini: Speaking of teams who have gone through a wild ride in 2022-2023, it's been a fascinating season in Champaign. A team with preseason Big Ten Title hopes, the Illini started off slow and then watched highly touted freshman Skyy Clark leave the program. Instead of things completely falling apart, the Clark decision seemed to galvanize the roster, and the Illini are now safely in the NCAA Tournament field. However, 31 games into the season, it remains very difficult to get an accurate read on this team. Terrance Shannon Jr., Matthew Mayer and Coleman Hawkins give the ample firepower, but it's anybody's guess what Illinois team is going to come out to play on a given night. I actually like this roster a lot more than others in the conference, but the streakiness makes it hard to make a decision on them one way or another. 

Prediction: First Round

Should Be In

Maryland Terrapins: Kevin Willard took over a program that had flamed out in the final years of Mark Turgeon and was hit hard by roster attrition over the offseason. Less than a year later, he has the Terrapins as near NCAA Tournament locks, and a team few are going to want to face in March. Offensively, Jahmir Young is the focal point, an explosive scorer who leads the team in nearly every major offensive category. Yet, three other players average double-digits and this is a much better defensive team than most realize, which has been key to their strong second half. They've proven they can go toe-to-toe with big-time programs and even beat them, as they shocked one of the ACC's best in Miami earlier on in the year and lost by three to Tennessee. They'll likely land somewhere in the 7-10 range, making them a real threat to pull off a huge second round upset.

Prediction: Second Round

Rutgers Scarlet Knights: While a big chunk of the Big Ten has used the home stretch of the regular season to pad their respective NCAA Tournament resumes, things have gone in the opposite direction for Rutgers. Once 5-2 in the league, the Scarlet Knights finished .500 in the conference and have lost six of eight, putting them squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The offensive woes have been the primary culprit; Rutgers just doesn't have a guy that can handle the load on this end right now. Cam Spencer started off on fire but has cooled significantly, and leading scorer Cliff Omoruyi can only do so much. I still like the attitude of Steve Pikiell's program; they're going to fight and give whoever they face a true 40-minute test. But, things have gone so far south, picking this team to win an NCAA Tournament game feels unwise. That is, assuming they can even get there, which is certainly no guarantee as we stand today.

Prediction: First Round

Right On the Bubble

Wisconsin Badgers: It's a coin flip whether Wisconsin will be in the field of 68 as things stand a week before Selection Sunday. The Badgers are 17-13 overall and 9-11 in the conference; they own two quality wins in the non-conference over USC and Marquette, but what's their best win in the Big Ten? At home against Maryland? On the road against Iowa? Either way, I don't see some Cinderella run coming from this team. They simply don't have the offensive punch, even if Chucky Hepburn regains his rhythm late in the year.

Prediction: First Round

Michigan Wolverines: Michigan is a great example of just how strange life in the Big Ten can be. The Wolverines finished 11-9 in the conference, tied for second with a collection of future NCAA Tournament squads. Yet, due to bad losses in the non-conference and the lack of a true signature victory, Michigan is likely to be an NIT team. That is, unless Juwan Howard can engineer a magical run in the Big Ten Tournament. Never say never in this conference, but it looks like the first NCAA Tournament without Michigan since 2015. 

Prediction: No NCAA Tournament

Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State's NCAA Tournament hopes hinge on their play in Chicago this upcoming week, but no matter what happens, Micah Shrewsberry's club deserves plenty of respect. The program has been an afterthought in the Big Ten for most of the last decade, but Shrewsberry has turned them into a team nobody wants to play. They'll battle from start to finish, and Jalen Pickett is among the most exciting players anywhere in college basketball when he's shooting the ball well. I have this team out of the NCAA Tournament field right now, but they could be an awfully tough out if they do make it in, potentially as a "First Four" participant.

Prediction: No NCAA Tournament