Saturday, April 25, 2015

NFL Mock Draft 2015: Edition 6 (Final Edition)

Marcus Mariota, to Tennessee
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jameis Winston, QB
Although Ron Jaworski and ESPN desperately tried to stir up some controversy this past week by saying that Tampa had interest in Marcus Mariota here, this pick is a near lock. Winston has been often criticized but he is at least ready for the rigors of the NFL on the field and seems to be a good fit in Tampa Bay and Lovie Smith's system.
Previous Selection: Jameis Winston, QB
Other Possibility: Marcus Mariota, QB
2. Tennessee Titans Marcus Mariota, QB
Reports are swirling the Titans may try to trade away this pick (San Diego has been in serious talk), but if Tennessee keeps it they should take Mariota. While the organization still somehow has serious allegiance to last year's sixth-rounder Zach Mettenberger, they have to realize prospects like Mariota aren't available very often and they need to strike here when they have the chance.
Previous Selection: Leonard Williams, DL
Other Possibility: Leonard Williams, DL
3. Jacksonville Jaguars Dante Fowler, DE/LB
Suddenly, the Jaguars are put in quite the predicament here. Leonard Williams is possibly the best prospect in the draft but the team has a more pressing need with an edge rusher. While the team will certainly give Williams a long look, they should go Fowler here. The Jags haven't had a franchise pass rusher for a long time, and Fowler has all the physical gifts to turn into a dominant one on the edge.
Previous Selection: Dante Fowler, DE/LB
Other Possibility: Leonard Williams, DL
4. Oakland Raiders Leonard Williams, DL
After completely whiffing on any chance at Ndamukong Suh, the Raiders have another chance to get a dominant defensive linemen, if Williams drops. Williams would give Oakland a versatile, athletic pass rusher who can be a major help in run support for years to come. Combining him and quickly rising Khalil Mack would give the Raiders a front seven others will come to fear.
Previous Selection: Kevin White, WR
Other Possibility: Amari Cooper, WR
5. Washington Redskins Vic Beasley, DE/LB
The Redskins lost Brian Orakpo in free agency, and they needed another pass rusher even before that. While they would love Fowler to drop to them (which is a real possibility if Jacksonville drafts Williams), Beasley is shooting up draft boards at the right time. The former Clemson product is a proven sack machine and would fit in well in Washington.
Previous Selection: Vic Beasley, DE/LB
Other Possibility: Danny Shelton, DT
6. New York Jets Shane Ray, DE/LB
The Jets are also in a weird position here. They would love either Mariota or Winston, but unless they trade up, there is a slim chance they get either. The addition of Brandon Marshall makes a receiver here doubtful, but Fowler and Beasley, the top two pass rushers are off the board. That may force the Jets to reach on Missouri product Shane Ray. Ray was disappointing at his pro day and his slipped out of the Top 10 in many people's eyes but the Jets need a pass rusher and Ray is the best left.
Previous Selection: Marcus Mariota, QB
Other Possibility: Amari Cooper, WR
7. Chicago Bears Amari Cooper, WR
If Jay Cutler is still considered the guy in Chicago, they are going to need to surround him with some more help after dealing away Brandon Marshall. Luckily for the Bears, they have a chance at either Cooper or Kevin White. While White may have the more upside, Cooper is more natural of a No. 1 and is likely more ready to contribute from the beginning.
Previous Selection: Amari Cooper, WR
Other Possibility: Kevin White, WR
8. Atlanta Falcons Bud Dupree, DE
Dupree has shot up and down and all over my mocks (had him at Indianapolis at 29 in my Edition 5), but Atlanta really, really needs a pass rusher and other than maybe reaching on the questionable Randy Gregory, there aren't a lot of better solutions. Don't get me wrong, Dupree is a legit talent; the former Kentucky talent is a very athletic pass rusher with extreme versatility.
Previous Selection: Randy Gregory, DE/LB
Other Possibility: Randy Gregory, DE/LB
9. New York Giants Brandon Scherff, OL
While the Giants may certainly be intrigued by taking Kevin White here, they should stick with the smarter, safer pick and go with Scherff. Whether it is at tackle or most likely guard (at least for the Giants), Scherff is a high motor linemen who will be a solid pro for the future.
Previous Selection: Brandon Scherff, OL
Other Possibility: Kevin White, WR
10. St. Louis Rams Kevin White, WR
They may need extra help on the O-Line, but the Rams also desperately need some more playmakers. Tavon Austin has been decent, but other than him, the offense is seriously lacking in excitement and explosiveness. If White slips, it will be tough for St. Louis to not take a chance on the stud receiver. He will give new Nick Foles a more natural deep threat receiver than Austin or anybody else the Rams have on their roster.
Previous Selection: La'El Collins, OT
Other Possibility: La'El Collins, OT
11. Minnesota Vikings Trae Waynes, CB
Mike Zimmer loves his cornerbacks; he used to stockpile them in Cincinnati when he was their defensive coordinator. But, other than steady Xavier Rhodes, he doesn't really have any other talented option at the position. That should change after Draft Day, as the Vikings must strike on the talented Waynes, a veteran with little weaknesses.
Previous Selection: Trae Waynes, CB
Other Possibility: DeVante Parker, WR
12. Cleveland Browns Danny Shelton, DT
The signings of Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline have at least solidified the wide receiver position for the short term (although don't be surprised if the Browns select DeVante Parker), so Cleveland should focus on their clear need on defense, where they cannot stop the run. Shelton is the best true nose tackle in this draft, so this pick isn't very difficult.
Previous Selection: Danny Shelton, DT
Other Possibility: DeVante Parker, WR
13. New Orleans Saints Randy Gregory, DE/LB
A failed drug test and rather pedestrian Pro Day showing have Gregory dropping like a stone in nearly every board, possibly past 20 (consensus Top 5 pick prior). But, the Saints absolutely need another pass rusher, as they did little to address the issue in free agency. With nearly every other edge rusher gone at this point, the Saints may have to take a risk on Gregory.
Previous Selection: Shane Ray, DE/LB
Other Possibility: Arik Armstead, DL
14. Miami Dolphins DeVante Parker, WR
As a whole, Miami has severe holes at a number of key positions offensively and they will look for either a running back or receiver here. The good news is that Parker will be available with White slipping a bit. Although questions have arose about his durability, Parker has all the tools to be a very reliable weapon for Ryan Tannehill.
Previous Selection: DeVante Parker, WR
Other Possibility: Melvin Gordon, RB
15. San Francisco 49ers Arik Armstead, DL
The Niners defense, once dominant in the first few years under Jim Harbaugh, is an absolute mess. The retirements of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland have left a hole at inside 'backer, while the cornerback position also has holes. Though, even more pressing is on the line where Justin Smith's career has come to a close, meaning San Fran will need a long term replacement.
Previous Selection: Dorial Green-Beckham, WR
Other Possibility: Jalen Collins, CB
16. Houston Texans Malcolm Brown, DT
While Texans fans are obviously hoping Jadeveon Clowney will return and be a dominant pass rusher someday, Houston will still look for extra insurance on the defensive line, especially in the middle. Brown is an athletic tackle with a high upside who should stay in the state, after playing collegiate ball at Texas.
Previous Selection: Malcolm Brown, DT
Other Possibility: Breshad Perriman, WR
17. San Diego Chargers Todd Gurley, RB
Even just a few days before the Draft, almost nobody knows where San Diego is going here. There are rumors they are trying to swing Phillip Rivers for the No. 2 pick or multiple combinations. But, whether they do deal away Rivers or not, they need more help at running back where inconsistent Branden Oliver is slated to start the year. Gurley's injury concerns are still present, but the Chargers should be willing to take the chance with his talent.
Previous Selection: Melvin Gordon, RB
Other Possibility: Andrus Peat, OT
18. Kansas City Chiefs Kevin Johnson, CB
While the Chiefs will be intrigued by a number of the playmakers still on the board, they have severe holes defensively, especially at cornerback. While Marcus Peters would be the most talented player left on the board, Johnson seems like he would fit in nicely with Kansas City. The Wake Forest product moves well and is a solid tackler.
Previous Selection: Andrus Peat, OT
Other Possibility: Dorial Green-Beckham, WR
19. Cleveland Browns La'El Collins, OL
Already fixing their needs on the defensive line, the Browns should focus on the other side of the trenches here. If Collins drops to 19, he would be an absolute steal here. The former LSU Tiger could come in right away and contribute at right tackle, either guard spot or be pushed as Joe Thomas replacement in the distant future.
Previous Selection: Arik Armstead, DL
Other Possibility: Eric Kendricks, LB
20. Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Collins, CB
The Eagles are also reportedly in play for Marcus Mariota and possibly trying to move up, but if they stay at 20, they should benefit from a number of options to fix their most pressing need: cornerback. Collins has the pure talent to be an absolute shutdown corner, the only issue for him will be experience and questions about his fit in Philly's defense.
Previous Selection: Jalen Collins, CB
Other Possibility: Jaelen Strong, WR
21. Cincinnati Bengals Andrus Peat, OT
Andy Dalton and the Bengals as an organization need to figure out how to win in the playoffs sometime. Perhaps adding some more weapons and protection would help, and Peat would certainly be ready to fill in and start at either tackle spot right away. A solid, strong prospect, Peat could be an anchor on Cincy's O-Line for a long time.
Previous Selection: T.J. Clemmings, OT
Other Possibility: Jordan Phillips, DT
22. Pittsburgh Steelers Landon Collins, S
Both Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor have retired, leaving it clear that Pittsburgh needs an infusion of youth in their secondary. That could come in the form of Collins, who certainly has the talent to go way before 22. The Alabama prospect has great size and is a hard-hitter, and with how weak this year's safety class is, Pittsburgh can't wait later in this Draft to strike at this position.
Previous Selection: Landon Collins, S
Other Possibility: Eric Rowe, CB
23. Detroit Lions Melvin Gordon, RB
The Lions released Reggie Bush earlier this month, and while he has been solid over the past two years, Joique Bell is not an every down back. If Gordon does drop here, it is hard to imagine the Lions passing on the talented back. With a healthy Matt Stafford, Gordon and Calvin Johnson, Detroit will have an offense that will be among the NFL's most explosive.
Previous Selection: Eddie Goldman, DT
Other Possibility: Ereck Flowers, OT
24. Arizona Cardinals Eli Harold, DE/LB
If either Gurley or Gordon drops to 24, Arizona would certainly strike on one of them. But, most likely they won't and unless the Cardinals trade up they'll probably have to wait until later to strike for a back. Harold offers a ton of upside and will give Arizona another impact pass rusher off the edge, that will only improve the Cardinals' defense.
Previous Selection: Eric Kendricks, LB
Other Possibility: Eric Kendricks, LB
25. Carolina Panthers D.J. Humphries, OT
The availability of Jaelen Strong and Breshad Perriman could certainly intrigue the Panthers, but they should go with the smarter move and grab a tackle, and Humphries would be a strong pickup. The former Florida Gator has great size, solid athleticism and offers considerable upgrade for late in the first round.
Previous Selection: D.J. Humphries, OT
Other Possibility: Jaelen Strong, WR
26. Baltimore Ravens Breshad Perriman, WR
Perriman has been shooting up boards for a couple weeks now, and Mel Kiper has him as a Top 10 prospect. While I'm not that high on the Central Florida product, I do think the Ravens would love him here at 26. Like I've mentioned, Steve Smith isn't getting any younger and Torrey Smith is now playing in the Bay Area. Baltimore would be silly not to strike on either Perriman or Strong here.
Previous Selection: Jaelen Strong, WR
Other Possibility: Jaelen Strong, WR
27. Dallas Cowboys Marcus Peters, CB
Quite honestly, Peters has the talent to go in the Top 10 and even be the first cornerback taken. But, off-the-field problems and scheme fit could drop him all the way to the Cowboys. If that happens, Jerry Jones can feel confident that he is getting an uber-talented corner that can greatly improve Dallas' porous pass defense.
Previous Selection: Marcus Peters, CB
Other Possibility: Jordan Phillips, DT
28. Denver Broncos Ereck Flowers, OT
Peyton Manning could be in store for his final NFL season, and if the Broncos finally want to capture the Super Bowl that has eluded them under his command, they must give him some more protection. Flowers is still slightly raw but he certainly will add some depth to an aging unit and has the talent to burst into a starting role by the end of the season or by 2016.
Previous Selection: Maxx Williams, TE
Other Possibility: Cam Erving, OL
29. Indianapolis Colts Jordan Phillips, DT
The Colts really didn't have any gaping holes here, but they would do well to upgrade nose tackle, where 2014 incumbent Josh Chapman was average. Phillips is the best defensive tackle on the board here, and his impressive athleticism would give Indy a rotational linemen who could come in on more aggressive defensive packages, at least for the time being.
Previous Selection: Bud Dupree, DE
Other Possibility: Cam Erving, OL
30. Green Bay Packers Eric Kendricks, LB
Gone is longtime staple A.J. Hawk and Green Bay also moved on from their other inside linebacker, Brad Jones, this offseason. That makes things very clear that the Packers are moving on at the position and that they need it in the 2015 Draft. They would be very lucky if Kendricks drops all the way here, he has incredible instincts and is a sure tackler, and could very well go much higher.
Previous Selection: Jordan Phillips, DT
Other Possibility: Eddie Goldman, DT
31. New Orleans Saints Byron Jones, CB
Jones first really became a big name on Draft boards after a huge Combine showing and has only impressed as the Draft process has raged on. But, Jones isn't just a workout freak. Jones played a big time in UConn's defense for years and has great intelligence and a great head for the game. He would give New Orleans a corner to build around who will only grow.
Previous Selection: Ereck Flowers, OT
Other Possibility: Maxx Williams, TE
32. New England Patriots Eddie Goldman, DT
A long time beast in the heart of the Patriots' defense, Vince Wilfork is no longer a New England Patriot. While it is tough to move on, the Pats must, and selecting Goldman, who was solid at Florida State is certainly a strong start. Goldman has all the potential in the world and has great quickness for a player of his size.
Previous Selection: Alex Carter, CB
Other Possibility: Devin Smith, WR

Saturday, April 18, 2015

NBA Draft Scouting 2015: Jahlil Okafor

Jahlil Okafor
Few college basketball freshman in the history of a sport had as dominant of a season as Jahlil Okafor. The nation's No. 1 recruit, hailing from Whitney Young High School in Chicago, Okafor used his huge frame, massive hands and smooth finishing ability to help lead the Duke Blue Devils to a National Title. But, to nobody's surprise, Okafor made a move that many expected. The big man jumped ship to the NBA after one collegiate season and will quickly be hailed by many as the No. 1 prospect in this year's draft class. But, there are still a number of gaping holes in his game that suggest he should not be the first player taken in late June.

Offense: It really is simple: few players in collegiate basketball could guard a 6'10", 270 pounds and super strong. Okafor could easily get away with getting the ball on the block, making a quick drive to the hoop and finishing over defenders. He will not be able to do that in the NBA at all, and it will be interesting to see if he can adapt. Sure, he has other parts to his offensive game, definitely. Okafor has a quick spin to either hand that is very effective and can also make an impact on the offensive glass, as his massive frame easily allows him to get in great position for put back opportunities. His mid range isn't completely nonexistent, but it is a problem. He didn't need to take a 15-foot jumper in college at all; he could simply take it down low against a weaker defender and push them over. Okafor has massive hands and big arms, which makes it easy for him to outstretch for poor passes and become very strong with hook shots. He is not terrible going to his left offensively but it is clearly not a strength. Push him to the left, he'll try to spin right but he won't be strong enough or quick enough to do that at the next level. Free throw shooting is perhaps the biggest weakness in his entire game. It really is a problem; he is going to get fouled a lot underneath and he has to be able to finish when given the opportunities. Nobody wants a guy who can't put anything in at the end of games, and Okafor consistently missed at the line in some major moments all season long. He certainly can get better, but right now his free throw shooting is far below average, even for a big man. While a smooth operator around the rim, Okafor still has some huge weaknesses in his all around offensive game. Duke was able to simply set him up for easy buckets last year, that will not happen in the NBA. While he does have holes, it is also impossible to teach the size he has and the strength he has to finish around the rim, and he will only get bigger.

Defense: Jahlil really is a wacky defensive player. He is 6'10" and a relative okay shot blocker but you really can't label him as a rim protector, but he isn't quick enough to guard anywhere but the paint. That makes him an uncomfortable tweener, and history has shown tweeners just don't traditionally make it in the NBA. Although he isn't a natural rim protector, he is a pretty decent defender on ball in the post. He is clearly very strong and has a large wingspan and his mere presence can effect shots. He actually moves very well on the low block, and can halt a drive right in it's tracks. But, when you attack Okafor with a head of steam, he will too often foul, and if you can get him in foul trouble, you obviously take an important piece to the team out of the game. It might be a little bit of laziness or maybe fatigue considering he runs the floor pretty well but he will too often hack when someone is attacking him on a long drive. Okafor may never be athletic enough to guard a Frank Kaminsky-like big man, and those types of guys are becoming all too popular these days. Most big man are quicker than Okafor on the dribble and even if you can't get past him once, a quick pass and cut could be a quick bucket. While he does have strong arms and still has that size, Okafor's defense is a concern. Can he grow into a more effective rim protector? Certainly, but he just isn't naturally one yet, but then again, not everyone is Anthony Davis. He has to become a little bit more athletic, although that isn't a major problem. You can't easily get past him on the block but if you can get some space when he is tired and use a pump fake or draw contact, he will usually bite and foul. He has to learn to be patient and smart when near the hoop, or else he will be picking up foul left and right.

Where he Should/Will go: Okafor does have some holes on some important aspects of his game, but he will grow into a much better player. He should improve at the line and possibly improve overall defensively, and perhaps even develop a mid range game without a little more finesse other than just brute power. But, like I said, you can't teach Okafor's size or polish around the hoop and that alone makes him a surefire Top 5 pick. He is just 19 years old, but Okafor already has the general tools to be a dominant big man in the NBA. He certainly could go No. 1 overall, especially if the Knicks land the top pick, considering they are in love with him, but more than likely if it is any other team he will slide to the second or third selection.

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

College Basketball 2015-2016 Sneak Peek

Justin Jackson
What a season. Although it appeared Kentucky was going to run through the tournament with reckless abandonment like they had done for much of the year, they ran into a brick wall offensively against Wisconsin, who ran into the same offensive struggles in the late moments of their National Championship loss to Duke. So in the end, the Blue Devils came out with their fifth championship behind the play of four fabulous freshman, Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow and Grayson Allen. While the dog days of summer are fast approaching, college basketball is never in need for storylines. Between transfers, players leaving for the NBA, coaching vacancies and much more, the offseason is sure to be exciting and will set up a very intriguing 2015-2016 season.

The Top Five

1. North Carolina Tar Heels
While Duke is still celebrating their national title, it could be their interstate rival's time to shine next season. The Tar Heels return essentially everything, including All-American caliber guard Marcus Paige, to a team that was nearly an Elite Eight squad this past season. Brice Johnson has already announced he will return for his senior season and he could form a scary combo up front with Kennedy Meeks. Though, perhaps the two players in line for a huge breakout will be sophomores Justin Jackson and Theo Pinson, both who are sure to stay. Jackson was North Carolina's best offensive weapon at the end of the year, and Pinson has an exciting mix of size and athleticism. While the ACC will certainly not be a breeze, it's about time Roy Williams leads a UNC team back into the Final Four and possibly beyond.
2. Kentucky Wildcats
Only at Kentucky, could a team possibly lose up to seven players to the draft and still be considered a legit title threat but those are the expectations in Lexington these days. Willie Cauley-Stein, Trey Lyles and Karl Anthony-Towns are locks to go pro with the Harrison twins most likely joining. And, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee and Devin Booker all could join as well, although they would most likely be second-round picks. Even with that uncertainty, Calipari does at least return two steady veterans in guard Tyler Ulis and forward Alex Poythress, who missed essentially the whole year with an injury. Add to that a recruiting class that includes the usual fair share of studs (Skal Labissiere is considered the top player coming in this year), the Wildcats will certainly be in the mix even with a ton of potential losses to the pros.
3. Virginia Cavaliers
It must have been frustrating for Tony Bennett and Cavs fans alike. Despite being the most consistently strong team in the ACC, Virginia wasn't playing well at the right time and stud wing Justin Anderson was never again fully healthy, amounting to a deflating third round loss to Michigan State. But, Virginia will have a ton back for 2015-2016, including their floor general London Perrantes, effective wing Malcolm Brogdon and big man Mike Tobey. Add to that Anderson, who does have suitors on the next level, but could be motivated to return to Charlottesville after the end to last year. Much like North Carolina, a brutal ACC won't make anything easy but the Cavs have the defense, leadership and experience to be much better this year.
4. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Mark Few and the 'Zags were painfully close to making their first Final Four together but ran into a better team in Duke. Though, the good news is that Spokane will once more will be loaded with talent, and that elusive Final Four could become reality in 2015-2016. Kentucky transfer Kyle Wiltjer was superb as a junior but isn't much of an NBA prospect, meaning he should stay. Joining massive Przemek Karnowski and sophomore Damontas Sabonis up front, Gonzaga could have the nation's best frontcourt. The loss of four-year contributor Kevin Pangos will hurt, but Josh Perkins, who missed most of 2014-2015, can step up big time for the Bulldogs.
5. Maryland Terrapins
After three unexciting years at Maryland, Mark Turgeron had his breakthrough in 2014-2015 in the Terps' first Big Ten season. The Terrapins were constantly neck-and-neck with Wisconsin all year inside the conference and even beat the Badgers once and earned a four seed before losing in the third round. The thing is, what Maryland has back is downright scary and they could become the Big Ten's top dog in just their second year in it. Sophomore guard Melo Trimble is returning and could have a huge year, while stretch four Jake Layman is also slotted to come back to College Park. Add to that the improvement of guard Dion Wiley and five-star center Diamond Stone and this is a really good team. The adjustment period from a surprise contender to force could be a challenge, but Maryland is a legitimate Final Four threat in 2015-2016.

Four Others to Watch
Kansas Jayhawks: Picking against Kansas in the Big 12 would be dumb, no matter how much Iowa State and others have risen. The Jayhawks have not so quietly won 11 straight conference titles and return a solid core, including guards Frank Mason and most likely Wayne Selden. While the loss of Cliff Alexander after just one year (was really too raw to make an impact this year) hurt Kansas' frontcourt they are still obviously a lofty threat.
Villanova Wildcats: Jay Wright once more has top-notch talent in Philly, where the Wildcats will have four-year starter Ryan Arcidiacono back at point guard, along with quickly improving big man Daniel Ochefu and solid Josh Hart. Add to that the addition of Jalen Brunson, a five-star prospect in some scouting services, and the Wildcats will roll to a Big East title. The question for Wright and the program, can they actually do something in March this time?
Duke Blue Devils: Don't expect the defending champs to lie back and not attempt a repeat. While Okafor and Winslow are locks to go pro, with Quinn Cook graduating, Coach K still has superb talent. Tyus Jones could stay and even if he doesn't, Grayson Allen proved he deserved a much larger role. Rice transfer Sean Obi is sure to make an impact, while Duke once more brings in an impressive recruiting class.
Iowa State Cyclones: Although the Cyclones killed many people's brackets last year, they should be improved this next season. Big man Georges Niang has already announced he plans to come back and he could be the Wooden Award front runner. Jameel McKay is a great rim protector and athlete and could break out this next year, while the backcourt of Naz Long and Monte Morris is full of talent. Plus, Fred Hoiberg is nearly certain to add his usual fair share of transfers this summer.

Other Interesting Storylines:
Smart at Texas: Although he said no to Illinois, Minnesota and UCLA, Shaka Smart had to move on sometime. Texas is one of the better jobs in college basketball, as Austin is a great city and the recruiting potential is great there. Smart will most likely have stud junior Isaiah Taylor at his disposal, and it will be very interesting to see how his "Havoc" defense transitions to the Big 12 and Texas.
Ben Simmons and LSU: LSU isn't usually the destination of top talents, but Australian forward Ben Simmons decided to join the Tigers, immediately electrifying a program that was on the rise under Johnny Jones. While Jordan Mickey and Jarrell Martin could have formed a scary duo with Simmons, they are off to the NBA. Even so, seeing the amazing athleticism and vicious dunks of Simmons could make Baton Rouge basketball alive again.
Who is the favorite in the Pac-12?: Arizona could legitimately lose five starters this off season (T.J. McConnell is graduating, Stanley Johnson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Brandon Ashley going pro, Kaleb Tarczewski still considering). While Sean Miller is great, he won't even be able to completely recover from that. Oregon will also take major steps back without Joseph Young, perhaps leaving Utah as the team with the least flaws, although they will be without Delon Wright.
New Faces in the SEC: SEC basketball has been oft-criticized the past few years for it's lackluster performances and little competition to it's impressive football situation. But, the fresh waves of new coaches should rejuvenate the conference. While Alabama was unable to land Gregg Marshall, they still managed to reel in Avery Johnson, while Tennessee hired Rick Barnes. Add to that the continuation of the Bruce Pearl era at Auburn and Frank Martin and South Carolina finally in position to compete and it will be an interesting year in hoops in the Southeast.

Thursday, April 2, 2015

2015 NCAA Tournament Final Four Picks

Josh Gasser
1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. 1 Wisconsin Badgers

A year later, we are back to a very similar Final Four, though with quite a few different storylines. A year ago, the Kentucky Wildcats continued their reckless run through the NCAA Tournament, taking down the second-seeded Wisconsin Badgers in a thriller, that included another huge three by Aaron Harrison and plenty of epic moments. This year, the two once more meet in the Final Four but instead of an eight seed who was just playing well at the right time, Kentucky is undefeated; a flawless 38-0, despite getting all they could handle in their Elite Eight duel with Notre Dame. The Badgers, meanwhile, are also a 1 seed and are motivated from last year's loss. Junior forward Sam Dekker, whose great play during the tourney has helped guide the Badgers to the Final Four, has an image of Kentucky celebrating their victory in last year's Final Four as his "header" on Twitter. The two will now prepare for a huge Final Four clash, one that is as evenly matched as they come, and one that should be a game for the ages.

Kentucky is big and they are talented, it's not really a secret. The Wildcats' frontcourt consists of seven-footers such as block machine Willie Cauley-Stein and budding Karl Anthony-Towns (25 points against Notre Dame), along with big, bulky Dakari Johnson along with Marcus Lee and Trey Lyles. Even their backcourt has good size; the Harrison twins, who have been great during this tournament are 6'5" and get to the rim and finish through contact. True freshman Devin Booker has been the real deal all season; the sharpshooter can knock down a contested three one second and than put someone on a poster the next. And, while he isn't the biggest player on the court, steady point guard Tyler Ulis is a quick, deceptive ball handler who has played great in Kentucky's big games all seasons. In all, Kentucky has nine McDonald's All-Americans on their roster, probably a reason why the Wildcats are sitting at 38-0. Scoring against Kentucky is so tricky; if Cauley-Stein or one of the other big men aren't swatting shot after shot, the Harrisons are making plays and creating transition opportunities. The Wildcats feast on teams without good ball-handlers, they make a living off creating turnovers and finishing with easy buckets. By all statistical standards, they are the best college basketball team in the history of the sport, they are the only team ever to go 38-0 on a year and have beaten down any obstacle that stands in their path.

So, how can a team like Wisconsin, a not very athletic team that has zero McDonald's All-Americans have any shot at taking down the 'Cats? By playing a much different brand of basketball, one this particular Kentucky team has not seen all year. Bo Ryan's teams are always great passers, never turn the ball over and are always very versatile. That great passing is huge against Kentucky. If you don't turn the ball over you don't feed their top offense; getting easy buckets off turnovers. And, Wisconsin's great, quick passing won't allow Kentucky to rotate easily and they won't get as many opportunities to block shots or get easy steals. Wisconsin isn't quite as big as Kentucky but they aren't small either. Frank Kaminsky isn't the strongest center but he moves very well and is quick enough that he can get good looks at the rim. Sam Dekker is 6'9" and can be either a small forward or power forward. He spaces the floor extremely well but also can make plays on the glass and will be sure to be a factor after huge performances against Arizona, North Carolina and Oregon. Nigel Hayes also has great size and has really improved from midrange and downtown, while steady veteran Duje Dukan is a good rebounder and solid defender. Sophomore point guard Bronson Koenig has taken over for vet Traevon Jackson and has led the Badgers' offense in impressive fashion. Along with hard-working, gritty Josh Gasser, Wisconsin also has a superb defending backcourt and they could shut down the Harrisons and Ulis.

Kentucky is 38-0 but they are certainly not invincible. They got all they could handle from Notre Dame last week, and relatively average SEC teams LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Georgia all gave them serious troubles. Even though, Kentucky has got all they could handle from those teams they still managed to finish the game. They have players who can hit big shots (Aaron Harrison), astounding size and amazing athleticism. But, Wisconsin has all the tools they need to pull of an "upset" even though this is a battle of No. 1 seeds. Kentucky has never faced a team with such great ball-handlers, great passing and amazing versatility. The Wildcats also don't have the defenders that can guard big men who can shoot on the perimeter and can consistently defend Kaminsky, Hayes and Dekker. Kentucky is amazingly talented but they may face a Wisconsin team that is just better prepared. Either way, this game will go down to the wire and just like last year, could come right down to the wire.
Wisconsin, 72 Kentucky, 70

1 Duke vs. 7 Michigan State

Branden Dawson
The other Final Four battle in this year's NCAA Tournament is also a rematch. Earlier this year, the two squared off in a Champions Classic clash, in which Duke really dominated the Spartans for much of the game. That Michigan State squad was still reeling from the losses of superstars like Gary Harris, Adreian Payne and Keith Appling, and they were little match for the ultra-talented Blue Devils. But, they have clearly improved since then, as evidenced by their superb run during this year's tourney, which included victories over Virginia, Oklahoma and Louisville. Senior guard Travis Trice has always been a great shooter but he has turned into so much more during this Tournament. He is much more aggressive than ever before but he also plays smart. He is quick with the ball in his hands, but also moves well enough that he can get open for three. The Spartans also have other strong offensive weapons, such as another experienced guard in Denzel Valentin along with veteran forward Branden Dawson. The Spartans' big men have also stepped up big time this postseason, solid Matt Costello is a good defender and is polished around the rim, while quietly improving Gavin Schilling is a hard-worker and finishes around the rim very well also.

Other than Kentucky, there isn't a more talented team in the nation than the Duke Blue Devils. Freshman center Jahlil Okafor has been the real deal this year. While he isn't as versatile of a scorer as other big men, he is strong on the low block and can score in a variety of different ways. Wing Justise Winslow has had a wonderful tournament and seems to get better every single game. Winslow, also a true freshman, is a wonderful athlete who dominates in transition and has really improved as a shooter. Then there is the Blue Devils' talented backcourt, which includes Minnesota product Tyus Jones along with steady senior Quinn Cook. Both are talented shooters, who should space the Michigan State defense and open up great opportunities underneath for Okafor. While the Spartans do have great size underneath they don't have anyone that can counter Okafor on the low block. If he gets position, he can score every time with one quick post move. If he takes over this game, no matter what Trice or any other Spartan does, Michigan State is going to have a very, very tough time.

Following their Elite Eight victory over Louisville, Tom Izzo affectionately called this year's Michigan State team, the "Team of Destiny". It does make sense, much like Connecticut last year they were a seven seed in the East Region and have used a senior point guard to make pretty miraculous tournament run. But, do they have the defensive answers to stop Okafor, Winslow and the sharpshooting abilities of both Jones and Cook, who are also great in close games? Trice will need to put up insane numbers and hit some big shots. Valentin and Dawson will also have to step up big time and also help contribute in defending Winslow, who is so tough to stop  because of his crazy versatility. While the Spartans have had some superb victories, they might have just met their match with Duke. Though, if Michigan State can limit fast break opportunities and contain Okafor underneath, they do have a shot at pushing themselves to their first National Championship appearance since back in 2009-2010.
Duke, 67 Michigan State, 58

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

NFL Mock Draft 2015: Edition 5

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jameis Winston, QB
While many players are shooting up and down and all over the place on draft boards, one pick remains a constant: Winston to Tampa. The Bucs are clearly going to take a quarterback, letting Josh McCown walk was only further confirmation, and the front office loves the former Florida State signal-caller. Unless something completely changes between now and draft day in a month, Winston is sticking at No. 1.
Previous Selection: Jameis Winston, QB
Other Possibility: Marcus Mariota, QB
2. Tennessee Titans Leonard Williams, DL
Tennessee has done very little in free agency and while they will most likely be intrigued by Marcus Mariota here, they desperately need to fix their porous front seven. Williams is by far the best defensive player in a draft stocked with great pass rushers. He will give the Titans a dominant pass rusher in the heart of their defense for years to come, something that certainly doesn't come available often.
Previous Selection: Leonard Williams, DL
Other Possibility: Marcus Mariota, QB
3. Jacksonville Jaguars Dante Fowler, DE/LB
It is looking more and more likely by the passing day that Dante Fowler will stay in the state of Florida after dominating with the Gators throughout his collegiate days. The Jaguars still need a franchise pass rusher to anchor their defense and while he is still somewhat raw, Fowler has all the tools to be just that.
Previous Selection: Randy Gregory, DE
Other Possibility: Randy Gregory, DE
4. Oakland Raiders Kevin White, WR

Kevin White
White has only further impressed scouts following a great showing at the Combine last month. The West Virginia product has blazing speed, soft hands and great size and could become a great deep threat. That would certainly help Oakland with Derek Carr's huge arm, and give the Raiders a dynamic passing game.Previous Selection: Kevin White, WR
Other Possibility: Amari Cooper, WR
5. Washington Redskins Vic Beasley, DE/LB
The Redskins suffered a tough loss this free agency when Brian Orakpo ditched to Tennessee, but they can possibly even upgrade the position by drafting the quick-rising Beasley out of Clemson. Beasley could fill needs at either end or outside linebacker and adds great experience and an aggressive sacking mentality to either slot.
Previous Selection: Dante Fowler, DE/LB
Other Possibility: Randy Gregory, DE
6. New York Jets Marcus Mariota, QB
While the Redskins are apparently eyeing Mariota as a replacement for RG3 and he could easily go to either Tampa or Tennessee, it is also extremely likely Mariota ends up a Jet. New York has fixed their secondary problems with the signings of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, now they must fix an even more pressing need: quarterback. Geno Smith might still have something left in the tank, but prospects like Mariota don't drop to six very often.
Previous Selection: Marcus Mariota, QB
Other Possibility: Brandon Scherff, OT
7. Chicago Bears Amari Cooper, WR
It certainly did have some great moments, but the Jay Cutler-Brandon Marshall experiment failed miserably and Marshall is now off in New York. Cutler's future is uncertain in Chicago but even so, the Bears need another receiver who could become their No. 1 or complement Alshon Jeffery. Cooper would be an ideal option, the Alabama product has all the tools; speed, size and hands, to be a solid weapon at the next level.
Previous Selection: Danny Shelton, DT
Other Possibility: Danny Shelton, DT
8. Atlanta Falcons Randy Gregory, DE
Gregory had a relative poor performance at the Combine and despite a strong Pro Day performance, he is dropping, while Fowler is shooting up boards. Even if the stud end does drop, he wouldn't slip past Atlanta, who clearly needs some pass rushing help.
Previous Selection: Shane Ray, DE/LB
Other Possibility: Shane Ray, DE/LB
9. New York Giants Brandon Scherff, OT
The Giants have some long term issues on their offensive line. It has been a poor unit and outside of young Justin Pugh, it has little long term potential. Drafting Scherff would be a nice solution, the former Iowa Hawkeye could grow as a backup for a couple years before becoming a starter and he also has the versatility to contribute at a number of different positions.
Previous Selection: Brandon Scherff, OT
Other Possibility: Shane Ray, DE/LB
10. St. Louis Rams La'El Collins, OT
A new quarterback is behind center in St. Louis; now the Rams have to do something with him they never did to Sam Bradford: protect him. The Rams' O-Line is a mess, but drafting Collins would be a major help. While Collins has fluctuated up my draft board quite a bit, he is still a Top 10 talent who adds leadership and experience to the St. Louis line.
Previous Selection: Andrus Peat, OT
Other Possibility: T.J. Clemmings, OT
11. Minnesota Vikings Trae Waynes, CB
Minnesota's acquiring of Mike Wallace solved their terrible receiver situation for right now, but the Vikings still have other holes, especially at cornerback where they lack a long term option next to Xavier Rhodes. Waynes has only confirmed that he is the top corner in this year's draft, with a strong, sturdy 6'1" frame and blazing speed.
Previous Selection: Amari Cooper, WR
Other Possibility: Landon Collins, S
12. Cleveland Browns Danny Shelton, DT
The Browns need some serious help against the run, and that solution could come in Washington prospect Danny Shelton. Phil Taylor's health is a concern and Ahtyba Rubin is off to Seattle, so picking up Shelton, who could be a steal here, would be ideal for Cleveland.
Previous Selection: DeVante Parker, WR
Other Possibility: DeVante Parker, WR
13. New Orleans Saints Shane Ray, DE/LB
A sack machine at Missouri, Ray has the talent to go Top 5 but it is possible that he could drop as while. Although he has a very quick first step and is a great athlete, he has had relatively unspectacular showings at both the Combine and in his Pro Day. If he does drop, he could be a great pickup for the Saints, who desperately need another pass rusher.
Previous Selection: Bud Dupree, DE
Other Possibility: Bud Dupree, DE
14. Miami Dolphins DeVante Parker, WR
The trading of Mike Wallace to Minnesota and the cutting of Brian Hartline has made it clear in Miami that the 'Fins are looking for a new top target for young QB Ryan Tannehill. The answer should come in the form of Parker, who has the explosiveness of Wallace mixed with the reliability of Hartline.
Previous Selection: Marcus Peters, CB
Other Possibility: Dorial Green-Beckham, WR
15. San Francisco 49ers Dorial Green-Beckham, WR
While holes have opened up on the Niners' defense with the retirements of Chris Borland and Patrick Willis, the Niners still have seriously worrying holes offensively, mainly at the receiver position. Dorial Green-Beckham continues to impress scouts and would give San Francisco a dynamic target for Colin Kaepernick to play with for years to come.
Previous Selection: Dorial Green-Beckham, WR
Other Possibility: Eric Kendricks, LB
16. Houston Texans Malcolm Brown, DT
The Texans have done nothing so far this offseason to fix their problems in the heart of their defensive line, so they will have to fix the issue in the Draft. Malcolm Brown has all the physical tools to be a dominant tackle for a long time, and he also possesses the versatility to possibly move along the unit, and spend time at end.
Previous Selection: Vic Beasley, DE/LB
Other Possibility: Jaelen Strong, WR
17. San Diego Chargers Melvin Gordon, RB
Ryan Matthews is off to Philadelphia, leaving the running back position wide open for San Diego. The question for the Chargers is to go with Todd Gurley or Gordon, a blazing quick talent from Wisconsin. While Gurley is scary when healthy Gordon is less risky and fits San Diego's up-tempo scheme better.
Previous Selection: T.J. Clemmings, OT
Other Possibility: Todd Gurley, RB
18. Kansas City Chiefs Andrus Peat, OT
They may have some holes in their secondary still and may need some more wide receiver help, but Kansas City has an even more pressing need on their offensive line that they have done nothing to address in free agency. Peat would be somewhat of a steal here at 18, and would make it very tough for Andy Reid and the Chiefs to pass on him.
Previous Selection: Landon Collins, S
Other Possibility: Landon Collins, S
19. Cleveland Browns Arik Armstead, DL
Already upgrading their defensive tackle position, Cleveland should continue to upgrade their front seven with Arik Armstead, a beast from Oregon. Armstead can play all across the line and could line up as the opposite of Desmond Bryant in Cleveland's 3-4 scheme. Although he is still somewhat raw and will need some time to further develop, Armstead's impressive size and strength mean he could be scary good in a few years.
Previous Selection: Malcolm Brown, DT
Other Possibility: Bud Dupree, DE
20. Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Collins, CB
The Eagles have had a crazy offseason and while they have signed former Seahawk Byron Maxwell, they still need help in their secondary. Collins is a superb athlete who has the potential to grow into a lockdown cornerback for Philadelphia for a long time.
Previous Selection: Trae Waynes, CB
Other Possibility: Brett Hundley, QB
21. Cincinnati Bengals T.J. Clemmings, OT
The Bengals have next to no long term solutions at tackle and they obviously want to protect Andy Dalton going forward, obviously assuming he is their franchise quarterback. Clemmings has the size and talent to go even higher, and he could be a real steal here at the 21 spot.
Previous Selection: Shaq Thompson, LB
Other Possibility: Eddie Goldman, DT
22. Pittsburgh Steelers Landon Collins, S
If Collins, an excellent safety from Alabama with impressive range, does slip all the way to Pittsburgh at 22, the Steelers would be getting an absolute steal at a need position. Troy Polamulu's superb career has essentially come to a close, and Pittsburgh should be searching for a long term alternative.
Previous Selection: Jalen Collins, CB
Other Possibility: Kevin Johnson, CB
23. Detroit Lions Eddie Goldman, DT
While the Lions did trade for Haloti Ngata following the departures of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, they still could be searching for another defensive tackle, especially with one as talented as Goldman on the board. Goldman is extremely powerful and is still growing; him and Ngata could soon be an upgrade over Suh and Fairley.
Previous Selection: Eddie Goldman, DT
Other Possibility: Ereck Flowers, OT
24. Arizona Cardinals Eric Kendricks, LB
The signing of Sean Weatherspoon by the Cardinals helped somewhat solve their linebacker problems, but while Weatherspoon is crazy talented, he was always injured in Atlanta. Kendricks is younger, healthier and possesses great size and instincts.
Previous Selection: Eli Harold, DE/LB
Other Possibility: Eli Harold, DE/LB
25. Carolina Panthers D.J. Humphries, OT
The Panthers signing of Michael Oher did add some depth and experience to their offensive line but they still need a future at the tackle position. Humphries has been climbing draft boards for a while now and he has the strength, size and impressive athleticism to be a dominant tackle for Carolina.
Previous Selection: La'El Collins, OT
Other Possibility: Ereck Flowers, OT
26. Baltimore Ravens Jaelen Strong, WR
Gone is Torrey Smith, and Baltimore's current top target, Steve Smith, is 36 this May. Needless to say, the Ravens need to address the receiver position. Strong has the chance to shoot up boards, with good size and good hands, and if he does fall to the Ravens here, Baltimore would be getting quite a steal.
Previous Selection: Todd Gurley, RB
Other Possibility: Carl Davis, DT
27. Dallas Cowboys Marcus Peters, CB
The Cowboys have never been ones to shy away from players with off-field concerns for on-the-field talent, and Peters would certainly not be an exception. Despite his dismissal from Washington earlier this year, Peters is still a top-tier cornerback prospect. He has the size, the athleticism and the range to be a shutdown corner for a Dallas defense that needs it.
Previous Selection: Arik Armstead, DL
Other Possibility: Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE
28. Denver Broncos Maxx Williams, TE
Julius Thomas is now a Jacksonville Jaguar, but the Broncos were smart not trying to overpay to bring him back. Maxx Williams is the best tight end prospect in the draft this year. The former Minnesota Golden Gopher has receiver's hands and speed and is also an underrated blocker. The Broncos could soon get an upgrade at the position with Williams.
Previous Selection: Cam Erving, OL
Other Possibility: Ereck Flowers, OT
Bud Dupree

29. Indianapolis Colts Bud Dupree, DE
Label this under "Steal". Dupree is a legit Top 10 prospect but he could easily drop if he doesn't taken by New Orleans because after that, the need for a true defensive end goes way down. The Colts would love another pass rusher who has excellent versatility and selecting Dupree here would be a huge get in Indy.
Previous Selection: Melvin Gordon, RB
Other Possibility: Alex Carter, CB
30. Green Bay Packers Jordan Phillips, DT
The future of the interior of Green Bay's defensive line is a question. B.J. Raji is still a free agent heading weeks into free agency and Letroy Guion probably won't return. Phillips was a solid contributor at Oklahoma and is deceptively quick. He will add a superb run stopper in the heart of the Packer's D-Line.
Previous Selection: Quentin Rollins, CB
Other Possibility: Kevin Johnson, CB
31. New Orleans Saints Ereck Flowers, OT
Using a pick acquired in the Jimmy Graham deal with Seattle, New Orleans should look to help out their offensive line which still has some holes, especially with disappointing Ben Grubbs traded away. Flowers has the raw talent to be a stud and the Saints wouldn't mind having a young linemen with some versatility.
Previous Selection: Seahawks selected WR Phillip Dorsett
Other Possibility: Paul Dawson, LB
32. New England Patriots Alex Carter, CB
The return of Darrelle Revis to New York will not only challenge the Pats' offense twice a year, it also cripples their cornerback position. New England would love if Marcus Peters could drop here, but there are still some solid options if he doesn't. Carter is a solid all-around cornerback with good upside and seems to fit the Pats.
Previous Selection: Devin Smith, WR
Other Possibility: Carl Davis, DT

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Bracket Analysis: South Region

Quinn Cook
Despite not winning the ACC regular season nor championship nor the conference tournament, Duke's victories over Virginia, North Carolina and Wisconsin were enough to earn them the No. 1 seed in the South Region. The Blue Devils will be lead be their usual fair share of star power, including center Jahlil Okafor, swingman Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones, who has been clutch in big games this year for the Blue Devils. Add in steady veterans like Quinn Cook, who joins Jones in the backcourt, along with Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones, and on paper the Blue Devils certainly have a Final Four-caliber squad. Though, Duke has had moments where they've choked in the tournament big time. Last year, despite having Jabari Parker and All-ACC forward Rodney Hood, Duke was upset by Mercer in the second round. And, losses in years prior to teams like VCU as an 11 seed taking down the Blue Devils all the way back in '07 and the all-too-familiar loss to Lehigh as a 2 seed. Though, the road to a deep run inside the region is not necessarily that difficult. Duke should be able to handle the winner of San Diego State/St. John's and both Utah and Georgetown, who could be their Sweet 16 matchups appear to be on serious upset alert. While a meeting with Iowa State or Gonzaga could be a huge matchup down in the Elite Eight pairing, Duke appears primed to at least make some moves this season.

Stephen F. Austin's upset over VCU was one of the craziest, heart-wrenching moments in the Tournament a year ago, and the Lumberjacks return to the Field of 68. Down a year ago by four late in the game to the Rams, a Lumberjack was fouled while hitting a three. He would hit the free throw and in overtime, SFA would take down the Rams in a popular upset pick. Don't be surprised if the Lumberjacks break another five seed's heart. Utah could be their victim this season. While the Utes do have spectacular senior guard Delon Wright, an All-Pac-12 player they don't have much depth and their offense has been absolutely streaky. The Lumberjacks space the floor extremely well, pass well and are smart and have two solid scorers to lead their efficient offense in Thomas Walkup (15.7 points per game) and Jacob Parker (14.1). Don't be surprised if SFA uses their size down low and three-point shooting ability to stun a very vulnerable Utes team, a program making their first appearance in the Big Dance since moving to the Pac-12.

The Lumberjacks opponent in the third round could also be a "Cinderella" possibility. Georgetown also has a long history of choking, most notoriously two tournaments ago, when "Dunk City" and Florida Gulf Coast dominated them as a 15 seed. The Hoyas have put together an impressive season but many were still surprised when a team without many big wins and a lackluster Big East Tournament showing were awarded with a four seed. They will meet the Big Sky Champ, the Eastern Washington Eagles, another balanced team with an efficient offense. While the Eagles did beat up on Big Sky opponents all year, they also proved they can beat the big boys too, stunning Tom Crean's Indiana team earlier in the year. The Eagles are blessed with one of the nation's most underrated guards in sophomore Tyler Harvey, who is averaging nearly 23 points per game and shooting 43 percent from deep. The Hoyas are a good defensive team but they can be beat in transition and speed by the opponent. If the Eagles can shut down Georgetown star D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, a great scorer who has also been prone to bad decisions, and contain massive center Joshua smith, a former UCLA transfer, they will be in prime position for a huge upset and will set up a third round between two double-digit seeds.

For the second straight season, Iowa State dominated the Big 12 Tournament, culminating in a huge win in the Championship over Kansas, the second time the Cyclones beat the Jayhawks on the year. Despite the run in the conference tournament, the Cyclones were given a 3 seed and earned a label as somewhat of a "dark horse" in the tournament. The Cyclones are led by one of the nation's best forwards Georges Niang, a junior who does it all. He averages 15.5 points and 5.4 rebounds per game and is one of the nation's best passing big man averaging 3.5 per game. ISU also has streaky scoring Monte Morris to lead the offense and their usual stud transfer in UNLV product Bryce Dejean-Jones, who can score in a variety of different ways. 14th-seeded UAB made an impressive run in the Conference USA Tournament but they are not anywhere close to the level of the Cyclones. While a possible meeting with SMU in the third round could be dangerous things don't get that tough until a likely meeting in the Sweet 16 with Gonzaga. While many have openly questioned Gonzaga's resume they still play great basketball and are motivated to make a major run. Even so, the Cyclones have their usual abundance of shooters, a legitimate star in Niang and more experience than they had last season. They could make a huge run this year, and are my pick to make it out of the region.

Legendary head coach Larry Brown has completely transformed SMU from a struggling program consistently near the bottom half of the C-USA to the best team in the still young AAC and a dangerous tournament team. After being snubbed from the field last year, SMU made sure they were a lock winning their conference tournament and earning a six seed. While 6-11 matchups are breeding grounds of upsets, the Mustangs got perhaps the weakest at-large team in the entire field. UCLA has been dominated in meetings with Kentucky, Utah, Arizona and a number of other teams inside their conference and were just 2-8 against the RPI Top 100 (2-8!). While Kevon Looney can give some teams problems down low, the Mustangs are deeper, better-coached and just plain more talented. Meeting Iowa State in the next round would be a huge challenge for Brown and SMU but just getting a win in the Big Dance would continue to show just how far the Mustangs have come and how much potential they have in the future.

South Picks
Second Round

1 Duke over
16 Robert Morris

Bracket Analysis: East Region

Darrun Hilliard & Ryan Arcidiacono
The Villanova Wildcats rode a 32-2 overall record and 16-2 record in the Big East to a No. 1 seed, though many are doubting them because of their play inside an oft-criticized conference. Despite some defensive limitations, Villanova has a number of weapons that can put up some serious points. Junior Ryan Arcidiacono leads the offense, the steady veteran is not a superb shooter but is a great ball handler and a hard worker. Sharpshooting guard Darrun Hilliard is a serious playmaker as well, while the play of forward JayVaughn Pinkston and Josh Hart will give anytime 'Nova plays serious problems. The Wildcats will hope to begin their tourney run against Patriot League champ Lafayette, who hopes to become the first No. 16 to take down a 1. After that, a meeting with NC State/LSU could certainly give Villanova some problems if the 'Cats can't hit their threes. Still, Villanova appears to be someone of a dark horse, something amazing considering they are a top seed. Many expect 'Nova to be an early out, but they have a ton of offensive playmakers and Jay Wright has had some postseason success (a Final Four run with Scottie Reynolds in 2009). The East Region is not extremely tough and if Villanova gets hot they could make a pretty surprising run to the Final Four.

College basketball this year has been all about slowing down the pace and using every possession wisely. Teams are scoring at the lowest rate in years because of this, and no team slows things down as much as Northern Iowa. The Panthers went 30-3 on the season and went 16-2 in the Missouri Valley Conference with victories against Wichita State, Iowa and fellow dark horse tournament squad, Stephen F. Austin. While the Panthers score at an extremely low rate, they rarely, rarely turn the ball over and play even better defense, allowing just 54.3 points per game, good enough for fourth in the entire nation. UNI has one of the nation's most underrated studs, forward Seth Tuttle, who does it all. The senior averages 15.3 points per game, 6.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game, while shooting nearly 62 percent from the field. Another experienced veteran, Wes Washpun is a playmaking guard who will help the Panthers' offense run smoothly. While Mountain West champion Wyoming is certain to give any team some issues, if UNI plays strong defense and contains Larry Nance Jr. they should be in good position. The winner of Georgetown/Eastern Washington shouldn't give the Panthers overwhelming problems, and Northern Iowa could set themselves up for a huge Sweet 16 meeting with Villanova. With their controlling, smart offense that is similar in many ways to Wisconsin and their hard-nosed defense full of experience, UNI certainly looks like a scary dark horse in this year's tournament. They could legitimately be an Elite Eight team with how weak the East Region is, and possibly have an even higher ceiling than that.

The losses of veterans like Adreian Payne, Gary Harris and Keith Appling ushered in a new era in Michigan State basketball, one that was full of struggles early. Though, the Spartans appear to have put it all together, making an impressive run to the Big Ten Tournament Championship game and although they suffered a heartbreaking overtime loss to Wisconsin, it showed MSU is ready to do some damage in the tournament after a tough Elite Eight loss to UConn last season. Forward Branden Dawson is one of the Big Ten's best rebounders and a serious matchup problem for many, while guard Denzel Valentine has evolved into a dangerous scorer who can hurt you from deep or take you off the dribble. Travis Trice has always been a great shooter but he has evolved into a great distributor and the Spartans have good size and depth in their frontcourt. While Georgia gave Kentucky serious problems and could do much the same for the Spartans, Michigan State is incredibly dangerous. Depending on the health of wing Justin Anderson, who has missed significant time for Virginia, the Spartans could pull off an upset over the Cavaliers  and possibly be prepared for a major run, considering how wide open the region is.

The dismissal of star point guard Chris Jones midyear threatened to derail Louisville's season. The Cardinals were already struggling and getting rid of the playmaker looked like it could doom them. But, the Cardinals finished the year playing pretty good basketball and won a huge game late in the year, defeating Virginia. They enter the NCAA Tournament with the same seed as last year and incredibly dangerous. Forward Montrezl Harrell still remains among one of the most dominating players in college basketball. The 6'7" junior isn't necessarily very tall but he is strong and sturdy and can push you over if you get in his way. Dangerous scorer Terry Rozier is poised for a big tournament after a great regular season. The guard averages just over 17 points per game and has stepped up big time since the dismissal of Jones. While he will still have turnover problems Rozier still has the ability to take games over and carry Louisville if he does need to. Guards Wayne Blackshear and Quentin Snider, who took over point guard duties from Jones, are also going to make a major impact. While the Cardinals come into the tournament somewhat overlooked they could make a serious run. While they do not have that much size, the Cards push the ball extremely well and have two of the better players in the region in Harrell and Rozier. The UC Irvine Anteaters will be eager to pull off the major upset but Louisville could be a scary team in the region. If they can get past the Anteaters and can put up points in a possible third round meeting with Northern Iowa, they could make a move all the way to the Final Four.

East Picks
Second Round

1 Villanova over
16 Lafayette

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Bracket Analysis: West Region

Nigel Hayes
A Big Ten regular season title and tournament championship was enough to give Bo Ryan's Wisconsin Badgers a No. 1 seed, although the committee did match them up with perhaps the toughest of the four regions. A possible Sweet 16 meeting with North Carolina is a cause for concern while second-seeded Arizona and third-seeded Baylor are two dangerous teams. Even so, the Badgers appear destined for a strong showing. Senior center Frank Kaminsky is the real deal, a mobile center who so few can guard because of his mix of size, strength and shooting ability. Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes offer more size (along with greatly improved Duje Dukan), while Josh Gasser and Bronson Koenig are studs in the backcourt. Perhaps the most amazing thing about Wisconsin is that they have had so much success without the guidance of senior guard Traevon Jackson. Koenig has taken over the reigns of the offense and run it wonderfully, but the Badgers could become even more dangerous if Jackson takes over fully healthy. The senior is more of a natural point guard than Koenig and guided Wisconsin to within an inch of a National Championship appearance a year ago. The Badgers won't turn the ball over very much, limiting opponents opportunities in transition and also are one the biggest teams in college basketball, only Kentucky is bigger. Although that possible Sweet 16 meeting with the Tar Heels is scary, the Badgers have a ton of the pieces back from a team that was a Final Four squad a year ago. If they are healthy, they should win the West, and possibly the whole thing.

The midyear injury to Briante Weber, the stud senior guard who perfectly exemplified their "Havoc" defense, threatened to derail VCU's hopes. The Rams slipped to a five seed in the Atlantic 10 conference tournament and while not on the bubble, were certainly heading in the wrong direction. But, a strong showing in the conference tournament that culminated in a championship victory over Dayton, reassured many that the Rams and their infamous defense will become a major threat in March. Weber will not be back and his time at VCU is sadly over, but the Rams still have a load of weapons on both sides of the ball. Treveon Graham has taken over as the Rams' main source of offense. The talented wing is averaging 16.3 points per game and seven boards per game and is sure to give Ohio State, their second round meeting, quite the challenge. Mo-Allie Cox is a superb athlete who gives teams matchup problems to all different teams and guard Melvin Johnson is a playmaker. And, of course the scariest thing about VCU is their full-court, unrelenting "Havoc" defense which can cause panic for any type of offense. While Ohio State is a very tough matchup in the first game, VCU and Shaka Smart are sure to make some noise and possibly pull off a major upset in the third round against Arizona.

The Rams got an awfully tough draw with Ohio State, who dropped to a 10 seed after a less-than-stellar showing in the Big Ten Tournament. D'Angelo Russell has to be one of the most intriguing players in this tourney and the Buckeyes have to be one of the most interesting teams. Russell can take over games at times but can also run extremely hot or extremely cold and he won't be the primary ball handler against the Rams' trap. Russell can score in bunches and make some dazzling plays but can he lead a deep to a deep tourney run like Shabazz Napier a year ago? Russell will need more help from fellow backcourt partner Shannon Scott and he needs his big men to help him out some more, the Buckeyes have gotten very little production underneath. VCU is an extremely small team so using big men to get easy buckets will be extremely important. Ohio State will need someone to step up down low to beat VCU and also to move on. Arizona has some great size, including Kaleb Tarczewski and stretch four Brandon Ashley and the Buckeyes could struggle against them. Still, few teams have a freshman that can go for 30 every single game. If Russell goes off, Ohio State would wreak some serious havoc.

Although they fell apart in the ACC Championship Game, UNC still played strong enough in the tournament to earn a four seed and possibly do some damage. They have one of the nation's best guards in junior Marcus Paige and an amazing assortment of big men, and the smooth transition offense that can get easy buckets. But, what they do not have is shooting, they struggle to space the floor very well which doesn't help their bigs get space and make plays. Still, Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson and more are a stocked front line and should give any team they face some serious issues. Jackson especially has stepped up in clutch time. Already gifted with great size and tremendous athleticism, Jackson has been able to hit some threes and help space the court for North Carolina, which has clearly benefitted their offense. While the Tar Heels are hot and have weapons that they didn't have as a six seed a year ago, they are also extremely young and could have moments where they just can't score or defend. Their second round game is daunting, a meeting with 13-seeded Harvard. Tommy Amaker's club has pulled off upsets the past two years and have a roster full of experience. Though, if North Carolina can get through the first game they will be an extremely dangerous team down the stretch and could make some serious noise out West, Wisconsin should definitely be nervous.

Arizona seems to be forgotten about in all of the talk about Kentucky and the ACC. The Wildcats dominated the Pac-12 all season and it culminated in the Pac-12 Tournament Championship, with the convincing victory over the blazing hot Oregon Ducks. Although he didn't win Pac-12 Player of the Year, T.J. McConnell still might have been the conference's best player. The former Duquesne transfer is now orchestrating the Arizona offense, and has plenty of weapons surrounding him. Big men Kaleb Tarczewski and Brandon Ashley are enough to give anyone problems but the toughest thing about the 'Cats is their athleticism on the wings. Sophomore Rondae Hollis-Jefferson can rebound and play great defense, while true freshman Stanley Johnson can score in a variety of different ways. The Wildcats also have impressive depth and plenty of experience on their roster. Plus, they have a motivation factor. Despite being one of the strongest programs in country the past few years, the Wildcats still haven't made a Final Four under Sean Miller despite being so close last season. With the weapons they possess, and an easier road to the regional finals than Wisconsin (Baylor is an easier team than North Carolina most likely) the 'Cats are sure to make a deep run and have a legitimate shot at ending that Final Four drought.

West Picks
Second Round

1 Wisconsin over
16 Coastal Carolina

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Bracket Analysis: Midwest Region

The Harrison twins
The pursuit of perfection continues for the Kentucky Wildcats who finished off their regular season and conference postseason a flawless 34-0 and have a shot to be the first men's college basketball team to win 40 games, if they go undefeated in the tournament. Though, the committee did the Wildcats very little favors in their side of the bracket, especially the region. Even so, few teams can match the size of Kentucky down low. Willie Cauley-Stein isn't just a huge dunker or shot-blocker; he is a legit-seven footer with a variety of moves on the block and beautiful polish around the rim, while true freshman Karl Anthony-Towns gets better every single game. The Wildcats would love another great postseason from Aaron Harrison, who hit three clutch threes in three different games to help guide the Wildcats to a National Championship berth, but even if they don't, they have reinforcements. Devin Booker is a much better shooter than either of the Harrison twins and has superb size, while Tyler Ulis has shown amazing composure late in games. Kentucky should clearly roll through the winner of Manhattan and 16-17 Hampton, but Purdue could give them a relative challenge, as they have some great size too. Even so, Kentucky is by far and away the team to put in the Field of 68 and stopping them will be a tough, tough order, though not completely impossible.

The crazy, wreaking press of West Virginia (nicknamed "Press Virginia") helped turn Bob Huggins' team from a bottom feeder inside the Big 12 a year ago to a 23-9 team and a five seed. Though, the Mountaineers should be prepared for an upset against MAC Champion Buffalo, especially if WVU's star guard Juwan Staten is not 100 %. The Bulls can run up and down the floor with anyone, but are much stronger and taller than West Virginia, which could clearly become a major factor. Forward Justin Moss nearly averages a double-double per game, and Buffalo has enough ball-handlers that they could survive the Mountaineers' pressure. If West Virginia doesn't hit some big shots, Bobby Hurley's Buffalo squad could get a huge victory, and the winner of Maryland/Valparaiso better be on guard.

Lately, things just haven't gone Kansas' way in the Big Dance. The Jayhawks have had a long history of high seeds and occasional upsets but aside from a National Championship appearance a few years ago with forward Thomas Robinson, the Jayhawks have struggled in March. First, there was that huge upset by Northern Iowa in the second round of a tournament in which Kansas was a No. 1 seed, there was that near half-courter by Trey Burke to guide Michigan to a Sweet 16 win, and then just last year Stanford handled Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid in the third round. Now, Kansas is in the toughest region of the tournament, where the tough games start right away in the third round, assuming the Jayhawks handle 15-seeded New Mexico State. Wichita State was given a seven seed a year after finishing the regular season undefeated and they could give Kansas an extremely tough fight in the third round, assuming they can take down the struggling Indiana Hoosiers. If the Jayhawks do survive they could have a date with the winner of Butler/Notre Dame and eventually a matchup with Kentucky could loom. Sure, Kansas has a ton of talent and has the consistency at point guard in Frank Mason they haven't had the past few years, but they will have a very tough time doing much damage this March.

Mike Brey's first season in the ACC was a disaster at Notre Dame in 2013-2014. The Irish struggled to score, defend and do pretty much anything else and were eliminated in the first round of the ACC Tournament. A year later, Brey's Fighting Irish are coming off a ACC Tournament Championship and are a major Final Four dark horse. Guards Jerian Grant and Demetrius Jackson will give teams fits. Grant is more of a scorer, a strong athletic guard who has unlimited range while Jackson has improved wildly as a sophomore and will lead the offense. Pat Connaughton is a problem for anyone to guard as he can space the floor as well as anyone. And, the Irish have pretty good size underneath, led by superb center Zach Auguste. Northeastern, making their first tourney appearance in decades, haven't seen a team with the balance and depth of Notre Dame while making Colonial Athletic Association opponents. There is some worry that the Irish could have moments where they can't get anything going offensively whatsoever, as was the case in the second half against Miami in the ACC Quarterfinals, but even so, the Irish are a seriously scary team and could make a serious run to at least the Elite Eight.

The magic of the Brad Stevens era at Butler has not completely faded. After a one-year absence under head coach Brandon Miller (resigned prior to the season with health issues), the Bulldogs are back and ready to mess up some brackets as a dangerous six seed. The return of guard/forward Roosevelt Jones has been huge for the Bulldogs, who have been very dangerous inside Big East play. Guard Kellen Dunham also has been huge, and could play a very similar role to the one that Shelvin Mack played when Butler went on those consecutive Final Four runs under Stevens. Texas snuck into the field as an 11-seed despite an extremely poor resume. Despite being a preseason Top 10 team, the Longhorns limped to a 20-13 record, that included a sub-.500 conference record of 8-10. A healthy Isaiah Taylor could give Butler some issues but the fundamentally-sound Bulldogs are very scary. Notre Dame better be on the lookout in the third round, as should the region as a whole.

Midwest Picks
Second Round

1 Kentucky over
16 Manhattan (beats Hampton in First Four)

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Conference Tournament Predictions: ACC

Justise Winslow
Tournament Locks: Virginia (regular season champion), Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, UNC

Bubble Teams: There are a number of teams sitting on the bubble inside the ACC who need to have success in order to earn a spot in the Field of 68. NC State appears to be pretty comfortably in, but Miami and Pitt need strong performances to have any shot at making the Big Dance.

First Round:
12 Boston College 65
13 Georgia Tech 60
Even with one of the ACC's most underrated players, forward Oliver Hanlan (19.4 points per game), the Eagles still just managed 4 conference victories and 12 overall. Even so, they are a better team than Georgia Tech, especially with a healthy Hanlan.

11 Wake Forest 69
14 Virginia Tech 63
For the most part, Danny Manning's first season at Wake Forest has been a relative disappointment, although it wasn't expected that the Demon Deacons were going to be real threats. Though, a victory against Virginia Tech would at least push them into the conference tournament's second day.

Second Round:

8 Clemson 74
9 Florida State 64
Perhaps Xavier Rathan-Mayes will put up 30 points in a four and a half minutes for the Seminoles once again. But, most likely Clemson will get the job done, with a much more balanced offense and do-it-all Jaron Blossomgame.

12 Boston College 57
5 North Carolina 75
The Tar Heels suffered a tough loss this weekend against arch rival Duke, and were swept for the season. If they can bully the Eagles down low, as they should look to do, they should put themselves in great position to avenge their defeats.

7 NC State 71
10 Pittsburgh 60
NC State made a superb run in this tourney a year ago, earning themselves a "First Four" bid. Led by Anthony "Cat" Barber and a strong amount of depth, they shouldn't need a deep run to make the Dance this year, although it obviously wouldn't hurt.

11 Wake Forest 51
6 Miami 72
Angel Rodriguez has quietly put together a huge year at Miami and the 'Canes will almost certainly be motivated in this tournament. While they are on the outside looking in, they do own a major win against Duke still and could be very dangerous.

Quarterfinals

1 Virginia 63
8 Clemson 58
It is possible Virginia's stud scorer, Justin Anderson, could be back in time for the tournament but if he is not, the Cavs will continue to lean on their defense and the services of wing Malcolm Brogdon. Clemson will be amped and primed for an upset, but Tony Bennett will have his team calm and ready to play.

4 Louisville 76
5 North Carolina 80
The Tar Heels will almost certainly have some troubles handing Louisville star forward Montrezl Harrell, but even so, Marcus Paige can lead the offense and North Carolina will dominate in transition, as the Cards have major depth issues.

2 Duke 74
7 NC State 70
Much like last year, NC State will give Duke a run for their money, but the Wolfpack simply don't have the weapons to match with the two-headed monster of Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook, along with Jahlil Okafor underneath.

3 Notre Dame 66
6 Miami 68
Notre Dame most likely will be a popular dark horse pick in the tournament this year, but they will get quite a challenge from Miami. Jerian Grant against Rodriguez a superb point guard battle, but expect the motivated Hurricanes to find a way to sneak out a huge win.

Semifinals

1 Virginia 70
5 North Carolina 62
The absence of Justin Anderson could be a problem for Virginia, especially if their offense struggles in the second half of this game, like it did earlier in the year against Duke. But, if Virginia plays smart and forces North Carolina to shoot often, they have a great shot to get the job done.

2 Duke 77
6 Miami 69
Miami would obviously to beat Duke again to add an extremely huge win to their resume, but the Blue Devils shout come out more focused and have a better attack plan. Jahlil Okafor has the chance to dominate, with the Hurricanes' absence of bigs.

Championship:

1 Virginia 65
2 Duke 71
Anderson's health will once more be a huge factor, but the Blue Devils may just be too strong offensively for the Blue Devils especially if Justise Winslow gets hot. No matter the outcome, if both teams reach the conference championship, the ACC has a very serious shot at two No. 1 seeds.

ACC Champion: Duke Blue Devils