Showing posts with label SEC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SEC. Show all posts

Sunday, July 8, 2018

College Football Preview 2018: 23. LSU Tigers

23. LSU Tigers

The addition of QB Joe Burrow helps, but this team has a tough road ahead in the perilous SEC West

Devin White
Offense: A new offensive coordinator arrives in Baton Rouge, following a frustrating one-year experiment with Matt Canada, who was previously at Pitt. Canada and head coach Ed Orgeron clashed often, and the offense continued to be mediocre at best, finishing ninth in the conference with 27.2 points per game. New OC Steve Ensminger will orchestrate a balanced, pro-style attack and now likely has a new QB.

Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow announced just this spring he was joining the Tigers, who desperately needed help at the position following the graduation of Danny Etling. Burrow didn't see much real action with the Buckeyes, but he gained experience in practice, and has a great feel for the game. He will still face competition from sophomore Myles Brennan and redshirt freshman Lowell Narcisse. Brennan is the only one back who has seen any significant game action, while Narcisse impressed in the spring. 

Burrow should win the starting job, and have plenty of weapons in the receiving game. LSU coaches are the most excited they've been for this receiver group since Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. were on campus. Texas Tech transfer Jonathan Giles is a proven playmaker, and can really stretch the field. LSU won't likely throw the ball deep much in this offense, but Giles can still take the top off a defense when they do. Sophomore Justin Jefferson and junior Stephen Sullivan looked ready to contribute in the spring, and there is significant upside there. True freshman Terrace Marshall also comes in with plenty of fanfare as a five-star prospect from Bossier City, Louisiana. He'll find ways to get on the field. Senior tight end Foster Moreau is the Tigers leading returning receiver, after managing 278 yards on 24 receptions in '17.

Runningback is a concern right now for LSU, as they watched star Derrius Guice leave early for the NFL. For the first time since 1974, LSU does not return a back who had a touchdown the year previously. Senior Nick Brossette had 19 carries a season ago and will open the year as the feature back, with sophomore Clyde Edwards-Helaire in a supporting role.

The Tigers should be strong on the offensive line, with three starters returning. However, the Tigers are inexperienced at both tackle spots, and this is a group that will be tested early by two physical defenses within the first three weeks of the season in Miami and Auburn. 

Ensminger will be a nice breath of fresh air, and there is hope Burrow can spark a passing game that has been missing in Baton Rouge for some time. Yet, the concerns at running back are concerning, and you wonder if this offense really has enough weapons to stay afloat in the SEC. I don't see them improving on last year's average numbers.

Defense: Per usual, LSU's defense should be their guiding force, led once again by rising defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. Aranda, who was formerly at Wisconsin, got a ton of interest from Texas A&M but a hefty $10 million contract over four years secured his spot in Baton Rouge.

Aranda has a number of breakout candidates to work with on this defensive line, including junior defensive end Rashard Lawrence and another Texas Tech transfer Breiden Fehoko. Neither really have the pedigree to back them up, but the upside is most definitely there. Junior Ed Alexander returns to bolster the interior, but big things are expected of Tyler Shelvin, who sat out last year due to academic reasons.

Linebacker Devin White's return almost guarantees LSU's rush defense will be stout, as the junior is one of the best there is nationally. White finished with 133 tackles a year ago, and displayed unlimited range, making him one of the biggest difference-makers in the country. He should compete for All-American honors, and possibly more. Fellow junior outside linebacker Michael Divinity has shown flashes and should now be able to secure a starting spot, but the inside 'backer position is a relative concern, with no favorite emerging.

The Tigers have long hailed themselves as "DBU" for the talent they produce in the defensive backfield, which includes names like Tyrann Mathieu, Patrick Peterson, Eric Reid and Morris Claiborne. The hope is that a new name can be added to that list, Andraez "Greedy" Williams. The sophomore has already drawn NFL attention in large part to his physical play and ability to force turnovers, finishing with six interceptions in 2017. The safety positions should be in good hands, as veterans Josh Battle and Grant Delpit both return. However, the cornerback spot opposite of Williams will have to be figured out. Sophomore Jontre Kirklin was the favorite coming out of spring, but grad transfer Terrence Alexander or true frosh Kelvin Joseph, a local star, could overcome him.

Aranda has cemented himself as one of the top defensive minds in the country, and it should not be long until he is the head coach at some well-known school. He does suffer some losses, but this is not a group lacking star power, with Williams and White in the fold. Expect the Tigers to be as stingy and hard-nosed as ever on the defensive end.

Special Teams: Kicker was a huge problem for LSU last season, so Orgeron and staff brought in Cole Tracy, a senior transfer to help fix their special teams woes. The Tigers could also oversee a position battle at punter, with Zach Von Rosenburg and Josh Growden both expected to see playing time. Jonathan Giles will be an immediate help in the punt return game.

After a rocky start to the Orgeron era, which included a stunning loss to Troy on the school's homecoming, the Tigers showed significant resiliency last season. The hope is that a new QB and new offensive coordinator can finally jolt a long-time suffering offense, and the D can continue to be the guiding force for this team. It is a good start, but the concerns at running back and a daunting schedule are really going to limit this team's potential. Even if LSU wins a tough, neutral site opener against Miami they have to deal with the loaded SEC West and cross-division games with Georgia and Florida on the road. LSU has enough to be a factor in the loaded SEC, but until we see sustained offensive success and a balanced offense, they remain more of a dark horse than a serious candidate to win the conference. Another eight to nine win campaign seems on the horizon in Baton Rouge.

Team Projections:
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-3 SEC)
SEC West Finish: 4th
Offensive MVP: WR Jonathan Giles
Defensive MVP: LB Devin White
Breakout Player of the Year: DE Breiden Fehoko

Monday, August 28, 2017

College Football Preview 2017-2018: Previewing the SEC

Southeastern Conference

Jake Bentley, South Carolina
2016 In Review: Last season, the SEC entered with their usual set of lofty expectations. Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee and others entered the season with legitimate Playoff hopes. However, outside of Alabama (who was absolutely dominant prior to a last-second loss in the National Championship) the conference had an off year. LSU lost to Wisconsin early and Les Miles was out as head coach, Ole Miss choked away second half lead after second half lead and didn't make a bowl, Tennessee was full of drama and fell out of the conference title race quickly, and Texas A&M, who began 6-0, once more fell apart in the year's second half. The conference's struggles in 2016 have them much more motivated in 2017, and with improved quarterback situations across the conference, it should be a resurgent season of SEC football.

Ranking the SEC (click on Top 25 teams for more in-depth previews)

East Division

1. Georgia Bulldogs (National Rank: 13)
Kirby Smart's first Georgia team was certainly talented, but youth and inexperience led to an up-and-down 2016, in which the Bulldogs finished 8-5 overall and just .500 in the conference. Smart is hoping for a much improved year from an offense that lacked much consistency last year. Sophomore quarterback Jacob Eason was the country's top quarterback recruit in the 2016 class and showed plenty of potential in his first season in Athens. If he can show more passing abilities down the field and take the sophomore leap many expect, Georgia's offense should be very dangerous. Eason will be helped by a fantastic running back situation, as seniors Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are both back. Chubb ran for 1,130 yards in his first season back from a terrible knee injury suffered early in 2015; now 100 percent he could be a serious Heisman candidate. There isn't a ton of proven talent out at receiver, but sophomore Ryan Ridley and junior Terry Godwin are both breakout possibilities, while sophomore tight end Isaac Nauta is only getting better. Defensively the Bulldogs were pretty impressive last season and they return ten starters. Up front, senior John Atkins and junior Trenton Thompson wreak havoc on the defensive line, while linebackers Roquan Smith and Lorenzo Carter will play a huge role in run support. The secondary has been one of the SEC's best over the past few seasons and should once more be shutdown, as senior safety Dominick Sanders and corner Malkom Parrish are both returning. Georgia hasn't quite lived up to expectations over the past few seasons, but they have one of their most balanced teams in a long time, particularly if Eason can really improve. Even with Florida and Tennessee still threats inside the division, UGA looks like the team to beat.

2. Florida Gators (National Rank: 19)
The Gators returned to the SEC Championship Game for the second straight year and while they were eventually pummeled by Alabama, it was still a pretty successful year for Jim McElwain and staff. They enter 2017 with significant momentum, coming off a Outback Bowl blowout of Iowa, which will only be helped by the addition of QB Malik Zaire. Zaire looked ready to burst on to stardom in 2015 with Notre Dame but broke his ankle in the second game of the season and was never again able to wrestle the starting gig from DeShone Kizer. His addition immediately improves Florida's weak quarterback situation, and gives them a dual threat at the position they haven't had in awhile. The Gators also bring back top rusher Jordan Scarlett (721 yards last year) and talented wide outs Antonio Callaway and Brandon Powell, meaning they could have their best offense in years. Florida has been a defensive-minded team for a long time, and even if the offense can improve tremendously, the D should still guide this team. There are significant losses that new D-coordinator Randy Shannon must adjust for, but there is talent waiting to step up. The D-Line has sophomore Jabari Zuniga and junior Cece Jefferson ready to have career seasons, and the secondary should still be top-notch, as senior corner Duke Dawson and senior safety Marcell Harris should keep it stingy. UF has proven they are a serious threat in the conference the past few years, but the one thing that has really held them back is quarterback. Zaire doesn't need to play like a Heisman candidate but if he can provide some offensive fireworks, the Gators may be able to reach their third straight SEC Championship.

3. Tennessee Volunteers
Following a wild and exciting 5-0 start to 2016 that included a miraculous Hail Mary to beat Georgia, things quickly unraveled in Knoxville. The Volunteers lost three straight to knock themselves out of SEC East contention and even they ended the year with a win in the Music City Bowl, a 9-4 record wasn't what most were expecting. Tennessee should enter 2017 with less crazy expectations, as QB Joshua Dobbs, backs Alvin Kamara and Jalen Hurd (who transferred) and defenders such as Cam Sutton and Derek Barnett all depart. Head coach Butch Jones will start anew offensively, breaking in a new OC, new quarterback and new featured back. Junior Quinten Dormady took most of the first team reps in the spring, but some believe he could be pushed by newcomer Jarrett Guarantano. Junior running back John Kelly showed promise in 2016, with 630 yards and five scores, and should be able to replicate Kamara/Hurd's production. The receiver corps lacks much proven commodities, but junior Jauan Jennings is ready for a big season, and veterans Jeff George and Josh Smith will help out, but the O-Line is a work in progress. On defense, the Vols have to fix a bad run defense, that came in 11th in the conference last year and 104th in the country. Senior Kendal Vickers and junior Kahlil McKenzie have all the talent to be All-Conference players, but have to come out and prove it. Former junior college transfer Jonathan Kongbo hopes to take over as Tennessee's top pass rusher as Barnett departs. The linebacker corps and secondary are both a work in progress, but guys like junior Darrin Kirkland and senior Todd Kelly Jr. should have productive years. Many fans are hoping less expectations and pressure on this Tennessee team will finally yield the breakthrough they've been waiting patiently for. But, unless the offense can mesh very quickly and UT can get through a tough late September/early October part of their schedule (Georgia, South Carolina and on the road against Alabama) it's most likely going to be a rebuilding season on Rocky Top, with an eye towards 2018.

4. Kentucky Wildcats
In 2014 and 2015 Kentucky was a major tease, starting off 5-1 and 4-1, respectively, before finishing off 5-7 both years. Last season they started the complete other way; with a terrible opener loss to Southern Miss and a 38-point defeat to Florida a week later before turning on the jets, and making a bowl for the first time since 2010. The Wildcats could once again be a threat in the SEC East, as they return most of their offensive production. Senior Stephen Johnson took over early in the season for the injured Drew Barker and had 2,037 yards passing while showing the ability to run the ball. Explosive sophomore Benny Snell ran for 1,091 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, and should have no trouble sliding into the No. 1 running back spot now that Stanley "Boom" Williams is off to the NFL. The return of four starters on the offensive line and two great weapons at receiver, in Garrett Johnson and Dorian Baker, also ensure Kentucky should improve on last year's 30.0 points per game, which was ninth in the conference. On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats have to improve at stopping the run, particularly in this run-heavy division. There is a decent amount of experience on the D-Line, and Kentucky is hopeful linebackers like Courtney Love and Jordan Jones can both have big years. Kentucky has vastly underrated cornerbacks, and juniors Derrick Baity and Chris Westry could once more be among the nation's best. Fifth-year head coach Mark Stoops finally got Kentucky to a bowl game last season, and has upgraded the talent level in Lexington substantially. They won't ever be considered favorites in the East, but if their offense can take big leaps, they could be a serious dark horse. A second straight bowl appearance and perhaps rising above .500 in the conference would be another step forward for the program.

5. South Carolina Gamecocks
Few people outside of Columbia, South Carolina, were thinking anything positive could happen in Year One of Will Muschamp with the Gamecocks. They were one of the country's youngest teams, and lacked any surefire answers at a number of skill positions. However, Muschamp orchestrated a very fine turnaround in 2016, as South Carolina doubled their win total and reached a bowl, finishing off 6-7. Just as impressive and important to the team's success last year was that they found some long-term weapons, namely sophomore QB Jake Bentley and sophomore tailback Rico Dowdle. Bentley was terrific in his first season with USC, throwing for 1,420 yards and nine touchdowns after winning the job mid-season. With Dowdle, UNC transfer Ty'Son Williams and solid wide out Deebo Samuel, South Carolina could actually have a pretty explosive offense, something Muschamp is certainly not known for. The former Florida head coach and long-time Texas defensive coordinator has long prided himself on great defenses, and this year's defense may start to resemble that. Five starters are returning, but the big returnee is a guy who didn't play at all in 2016: senior linebacker Skai Moore. Moore had 111 tackles in 2015 and was All-SEC, but missed the entirety of 2016 with a neck injury and redshirted. When paired with senior Bryson Allen-Williams and a decent D-Line, South Carolina could be pretty stingy up front. The secondary was pretty strong last season, and returns three guys who played tons of snaps last year, senior Jamarcus King, Chris Lammons and D.J. Smith. Those three should keep this unit as tough to pass on as ever. Muschamp did a fine job in 2016, and has likely bought time to continue to rebuild this roster. They are still a year or two away from making serious noise in the East, but another bowl berth will be more than enough for the second-year head coach.

6. Missouri Tigers
Former Missouri linebacker and defensive coordinator Barry Odom took over for long-time head coach Gary Pinkel last season and as expected, the transition was not easy. What was surprising, however, was that it was their defense, not a big-play offense, that held them down as they limped to a 4-8 record. Odom, who has always been known for being creative with his defensive looks, watched as the defense let up 31.5 PPG (12th in the conference, 90th nationally) and nearly 480 yards per game, which was dead last in the SEC. Missouri must now replace eight starters, but the front seven could actually improve, as junior Terry Beckner Jr. and senior Marcell Frazier are All-Conference possibilities on the line, and the linebackers corps has decent experience. The secondary was decent last season, and has two hard-hitting safeties returning in the back, in Thomas Wilson and Anthony Sherrils, so the defense has no excuses in 2017. The offense could quietly be one of the nation's best, as it can really be explosive when the passing game is hot. Junior Drew Lock broke out as quarterback last year, with 3,399 yards and 23 touchdowns, and he has worked hard this off-season to become even better at reading defenses. He should have a field day passing to wide outs like senior J'Mon Moore, who had over 1,000 yards in 2016, along with junior Nate Brown and rising sophomore Jonathon Johnson, who'll operate out of the slot. Running backs Damarea Crockett and senior Ish Witter give Mizzou a dangerous 1-2 combo in the backfield, so the unit should still keep good balance. There should be overall improvement in Odom's second season, and if Lock keeps getting better, this could be the best offense in the division. If the defense can at least be respectable, the Tigers could make a post-season berth, and rise into the upper part of the East.

7. Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt doesn't play a pretty brand of football, ranking 113th in scoring offense and lacked much of a downfield passing game, but the Commodores made progress in 2016, finishing off 6-7 and stunning Georgia and Tennessee on the year. Head coach Derek Mason will continue to run an offense predicated around a power rushing attack, led by under appreciated senior Ralph Webb, who is already Vandy's career leading rusher. The Commodores did show improved QB play last year, as junior Kyle Shurmur improved throughout the season, although still had more interceptions than touchdowns. Seniors C.J. Duncan and Trent Sherfield are back at receiver, meaning this could be the Commodores best offense since Mason arrived three years ago. The defense was pretty solid throughout 2016, but loses one of their best defenders in school history, first-round NFL Draft selection Zach Cunningham. Senior Oren Burks will hope to replace Cunningham's impressive production, while the secondary will look to also take major steps forward this season, as nearly every key contributor from '16 is returning. Vanderbilt may be all the way down at seventh in the division, but this is a program quietly on the rise. Mason has a legitimate star returning, in Webb, and if the passing game can improve, this team could actually be pretty scary offensively. Add to that veteran experience (20 of Vanderbilt's projected 22 starters have been in the program for at least three years) and it could still be a highly successful campaign in Nashville in 2017.

West Division

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (National Rank: 1)
Despite the fact Alabama lost a heartbreaker last-second to miss out on a fifth National Title under Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide should not stop rolling as they enter 2017. New offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has something his predecessor Lane Kiffin never had: a returning QB. Sophomore Jalen Hurts had some troubles as a true frosh playing at the highest level of college football, but still performed admirably. If Hurts can take advantage of the deep threat abilities of returnees Calvin Ridley and true freshman Jerry Jeudy, he could take a huge sophomore leap. Alabama also brings back a wonderful stable of backs, including juniors Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris, along with sophomore Joshua Jacobs. That, plus a strong offensive line that features three future NFL starters: Jonah Williams, Bradley Bozeman and Ross Pierschbacher, should make Daboll's job pretty easy. On defense, Alabama should be as stout and dangerous as ever. The front seven may lose studs Jonathan Allen, Tim Williams and Rueben Foster but has a number of breakout candidates, including senior Da'Shawn Hand, junior Da'Ron Payne and senior inside linebacker Rashaan Evans. There is also impressive depth everywhere, as even reserves such as sophomore Mack Wilson and true freshman Dylan Moses will make some plays that leave us amazed. The secondary was an absolute turnover machine last year, and don't expect that to change much in 2017. Junior Minkah Fitzpatrick had six interceptions in 2016 and should be even better this year, while senior corner Anthony Averett and junior safety Ronnie Harrison will also play an important role. The Tide will have to replace some big-time playmakers from last season, but they are a program that can reload and restock as well as anybody. If Hurts can get even better and the defense continues to be superb, the Tide could very well finish the job this time around, and snag that fifth National Title under Saban.

2. Auburn Tigers (National Rank: 11)
Since Gus Malzahn took over as Auburn head coach prior to the 2013 season Auburn has experienced some major ups (2013 National Championship berth, magical upset of Alabama in 2013 Iron Bowl) and downs (7-6, last place finish in 2015). As the Tigers begin play in 2017 they hope to finally find some consistency on the Plains. The addition of Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham has Auburn fans very excited. The Tigers have really lacked a dangerous passing game for years, and Stidham's performance in two starts with the Bears showed he could certainly attack through the air. Stidham will be aided by the Tigers' usual dangerous rushing attack, as junior Kamryn Pettway (1,224 yards last year) and Kerryon Johnson (895) return. They should have a big year running behind a strong O-Line that has All-Conference candidates Austin Golson and Braden Smith. On defense, Auburn saw wild improvements across the board in 2016, but does lose some key pieces, such as Carl Lawson, Montravius Adams and Rudy Ford. Junior Dontavius Russell put together a strong spring and should be ready to step up, while the Tigers are also hoping junior Byron Cowart can finally fulfill his vast potential on the D-Line. The secondary was just okay a season ago but has plenty of experience returning. Junior corner Carlton Davis could take over as the team's No. 1 at the position, while Georgia transfer Tray Matthews is essentially the quarterback of the defense. Auburn also has the luxury of having one of the country's best kickers, as senior Daniel Carlson returns after briefly flirting with the NFL. Carlson knocked down 28 of 32 field goals last year, with an impressive long of 53. On paper, the Tigers look like the second best team in the conference, but of course, that doesn't always translate to wins. If Stidham can be the missing piece to this offense and the defense doesn't miss a beat despite some of their absences, Auburn is well-equipped to be a serious SEC West contender and perhaps take a shot at might 'Bama.

3. LSU Tigers (National Rank: 15)
After beginning the season 2-2 LSU made the unsurprising move to fire head coach Les Miles, after over a decade of coaching in Baton Rouge. Interim head coach Ed Orgeron did a great job with the Tigers down the stretch, and after LSU whiffed on bringing in now-Texas head coach Tom Herman, was handed the full-time gig. Orgeron's top priority this season is fixing an offense that struggled mightily over the past few years of Miles' tenure. New offensive coordinator Matt Canada led a very strong unit at Pittsburgh, and hopes to improve the Tigers' downfield passing game. Purdue transfer Danny Etling was okay in '16 after taking over for Brandon Harris, and could see a big improvement if he can learn Canada's offense quickly. It will help LSU has a terrific running back situation, with junior Derrius Guice and senior Darrel Williams leading the charge. Guice ran wild when the now-departed Leonard Fournette was hurt last year, with 1,387 yards, 15 touchdowns and an extremely impressive 7.6 yards per carry average. Guice could be a very serious Heisman threat with a full year of being the featured back, particularly running behind a very good O-Line. The Tigers should always be very good defensively, and I don't expect that to change in 2017. Junior end/outside linebacker Arden Key took a leave of absence from the team in the spring but is now back, and could be one of the most imposing pass rushers in the country, after managing 12 sacks last season. He'll help out on a defensive line with plenty of experience throughout, including senior nose tackle Greg Gilmore and senior end Christian LaCouture, who missed all of 2016. Jamal Adams was a real difference-maker in the back for the Tigers, and his departure to the NFL will hurt. With that being said, LSU still returns juniors Donte Jackson and Kevin Toliver at cornerback, so don't expect much of a drop-off from the pass defense. While Orgeron and Canada will make some changes, this will still be a very typical LSU team. They'll run the ball a lot, have a very methodical passing attack, and should be very stout on defense. They should be good enough to be in the mix for an SEC West crown, but expecting them to jump Alabama/Auburn may be too much to ask for Orgeron in Year One.

4. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State
Replacing the greatest quarterback in school history is an awfully tall order, and yet Nick Fitzgerald did a superb job stepping in for Dak Prescott. Fitzgerald threw for 2,423 yards and 21 TDs, but did most of his damage with his legs, finishing with 1,375 and 16 more scores. The junior may not be super well-known around the country yet, but another big year from him could put him on the Heisman short list. Fitzgerald will be surrounded by some other offensive weapons that helped Mississippi State finish off 6-7 last year. Senior Donald Gray and junior Malik Dear will help replace top wide out Fred Ross, who is off to the NFL, while junior Aeris Williams led all Miss. State running backs in yards last season, and is also back in Starkville. On defense, the Bulldogs are looking for redemption, after coming in 110th in the country in total defense last season. The D-Line doesn't have any distinguishable stars, but sophomore end Jeffery Simmons and junior college transfer Chauncey Rivers both could have huge years. The secondary was pretty poor throughout much of 2016, but could be in store for a redemptive campaign. Tolando Cleveland, probably their best cover corner, missed all of '16 with a torn ACL but is now back and ready to go. He'll be joined by junior safety Brandon Bryant, along with converted linebacker J.T. Gray, who should also start at safety. It was a transition season for Mississippi State last year as they moved on from Prescott, and naturally they slipped a little bit in the division. I see them making big strides in '17, especially with Fitzgerald at the helm. If their defense can take that next step, I think they are a real dark horse in the division, and may be able to rise into SEC title contention.

5. Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas was one of the nation's most confusing teams a year ago, as a different version of the Razorbacks seemed to come out every Saturday. They'd beat Florida by three touchdowns then lose by four touchdowns to LSU the next, or run past Ole Miss, then get pummeled by Auburn 56-3. Overall, they finished off 7-6 and 3-5 in the conference, which left a little something to be desired. Head coach Bret Bielema does return a very veteran-laden team, so there should be more consistency in Fayetteville this fall. Senior QB Austin Allen did have some turnover issues, but still finished with a very strong 2016 (3,430 yards, 25 touchdowns). He may have to do a little more in the passing game, after star back Rawleigh Williams retired in the spring due to injuries, although sophomore Devwah Whaley shouldn't have too difficult of a transition to the No. 1 back role. Arkansas should also be very strong on the offensive line, as senior center Frank Ragnow anchors a great group, which bodes well for a team that loves to run the ball. On defense, the Razorbacks are trying to improve, especially against the run, where they an FBS-worst 39 rushing touchdowns in 2016. New DC Paul Rhoads was formerly the head coach at Iowa State, and should be able to solve some of their defensive woes. Sophomore end McTelvin Agim is likely to have a big season on the D-Line, while junior linebacker Dre Greenlaw will also play a huge role. The secondary will be pretty good, as senior free safety Josh Liddell and junior corner Ryan Pulley are both very underrated. Arkansas should once again be a tough team to handle, because they play so hard and are so physical, but unless this team shows wild improvement on defense or Allen evolves into a bonafide Heisman candidate, a middle-of-the-pack finish seems to be in the cards for the Hogs.

6. Texas A&M Aggies
There is significant pressure on Kevin Sumlin and staff in College Station, as Texas A&M is coming off their third straight season of a great first half, and horrendous second half. Making life tougher for Sumlin is that he must find a new QB, as one-year wonder Trevor Knight graduated. Senior Jake Hubenak is the only QB on the roster with FBS level experience, but redshirt frosh Nick Starkel and true frosh Kellen Mond both had great springs. They will be helped by the fact the Aggies have a dangerous rushing attack for one of the first times in awhile, as sophomore Trayveon Williams and senior Keith Ford present quite a problem. Junior receiver Christian Kirk is one of the SEC's best overall playmakers, and he should help keep the offense still potent. A&M has made progress on the defensive side of the ball under D-coordinator John Chavis, but it's still far from a strength. The good news is that the defensive line could actually resemble a normal SEC D-Line, with senior Zaycoven Henderson and junior Kingsley Keke both back. The secondary could also be pretty good, as seniors Donovan Wilson and Armani Watts, who was All-Conference last year, patrol the back-end. Unfortunately for Sumlin and the Aggies, they are staring down a tough schedule, which opens up on the road against UCLA and features a cross-division battle with Florida. Perhaps if they can find a quarterback this team may still be able to surprise some folks in this conference, but the program has lost nearly all of the momentum gained during the Johnny Manziel years. It's hard to imagine them doing any better this year than the 8-5 mark they've managed the past three years.

7. Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss' return to contention in the SEC was a great story, but much of that has come crashing down over the last year and a half. The Rebels suffered through an injury-plagued 5-7 2016 amid active NCAA investigation into whether some of their players took illegal benefits. They then fired head coach Hugh Freeze after five years when calls between him and an escort service were uncovered. Interim head coach Matt Luke hopes to just keep this team going forward as further punishment by the NCAA possibly brews. The Rebels still have plenty of talent, and offensively they could actually be pretty dangerous. Sophomore Shea Patterson had his redshirt taken off late in '16 when Chad Kelly was lost for the year and while Patterson struggled with his accuracy, he still impressed, finishing off with 880 yards and leading Ole Miss to a thrilling win over Texas A&M. He'll be joined by senior Jordan Wilkins in the backfield, who will try to improve one of the worst rushing offenses in the SEC. Sophomore wide out Van Jefferson is likely to have a big season taking over as the Rebels' top passing option, and the offensive line could be very good, as three starters are back and sophomore tackle Greg Little, a former five-star recruit, keeps getting better. Ole Miss will have to rebuild a defense that had a tough 2016. Senior Marquise Haynes can cause plenty of chaos up front, as will rising sophomore Benito Jones. However, Ole Miss is extremely thin at linebacker, and at least a few unproven players will likely have to step up into larger roles. The defensive backfield is still not terrific, but brings back sophomore Myles Hartsfield, who is switching from safety to cornerback, and Ken Webster, who suffered a devastating torn ACL in last year's opener. It will be interesting to see what type of season this is in Oxford. Luke and staff have plenty of talent back and Patterson appears to be a rising star. But, motivation could be a question, as Ole Miss already can't go to a bowl game due to a self-imposed ban, and may face further sanctions. This team should be good enough to contend for a .500 overall mark, but it would be a miracle if they were SEC West threats with all the things brewing around the program.

All-SEC Teams
First Team
QB Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State
RB Bo Scarbrough, Alabama
RB Derrius Guice, LSU
WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama
WR Christian Kirk, Texas A&M
TE Hayden Hurst, South Carolina
OL Jonah Williams, Alabama
OL Ross Pierschbacher, Alabama
OL Frank Ragnow, Arkansas
OL Braden Smith, Auburn
OL Martez Ivey, Florida
DL Arden Key, LSU
DL Marquis Haynes, Ole Miss
DL Da'Shawn Hand, Alabama
DL Cece Jefferson, Florida
LB Shaun Dion Hamilton, Alabama
LB Skai Moore, South Carolina
LB Roquan Smith, Georgia
CB Duke Dawson, Florida
CB Anthony Averett, Alabama
S Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama
S Dominick Sanders, Georgia

Second Team
QB Jalen Hurts, Alabama
RB Kamryn Pettway, Auburn
RB Nick Chubb, Georgia
WR Antonio Callaway, Florida
WR J'Mon Moore, Missouri
TE Isaac Nauta, Georgia
OL K.J. Malone, LSU
OL Austin Golson, Auburn
OL Isaiah Wynn, Georgia
OL Will Clapp, LSU
OL Bradley Bozeman, Alabama
DL Da'Ron Payne, Alabama
DL Kendal Vickers, Tennessee
DL Marlon Davidson, Auburn
DL Jeffery Simmons, Mississippi State
LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
LB Darrin Kirkland, Tennessee
LB Jordan Jones, Kentucky
CB Tolando Cleveland, Mississippi State
CB Kevin Toliver, LSU
S Armani Watts, Texas A&M
S Ronnie Harrison, Alabama

Projected Awards
Conference Championship: Alabama over Georgia
Offensive Player of the Year: Derrius Guice, LSU
Defensive Player of the Year: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama
Newcomer of the Year: Jarrett Stidham, Auburn
Coach of the Year: Gus Malzahn, Auburn

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

College Football Preview 2017-2018: 1. Alabama Crimson Tide

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

Same old, same old; dynamic backfield and stout defense ensure Alabama is team to beat

  • Location: Tuscaloosca, AL.
  • Conference: SEC (West)
  • Schedule
  • Roster
  • Coach: Nick Saban (11th year)
  • Last Years Record: 14-1 (9-0 SEC)
  • Bowl Result: Loss in National Championship

Overview

Throughout much of 2016 Alabama looked destined to add another National Title to their belt. The Tide started off the year ranked No. 1 in the polls and didn't move, winning 14 straight in mostly dominant fashion. They pounded USC, Arkansas, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida and any other ranked team that stood in their way of a fifth national title under Nick Saban. Yet, despite the dominant defense and physical offense Alabama possessed their old kryptonite doomed them once more: Deshaun Watson. Watson led Clemson on a miraculous last-minute drive capped off by a short touchdown pass to former walk-on Hunter Renfrow to stun the Tide. It was an extremely heartbreaking loss to suffer for Alabama but the good news: they shouldn't have to wait very long to get another chance at a title. With a more experienced quarterback, great backfield and overall stout defense, the Tide look once more like the team to beat nationally.

Jalen Hurts
Offense: For the first time since A.J. McCarron returned for his senior season in 2013, Alabama returns their starting quarterback. Jalen Hurts beat out a number of others to win the quarterback job as a true freshman and ended up throwing for 2,780 yards and 23 touchdowns, while adding 954 yards and 13 scores on the ground. Hurts did throw nine interceptions and did struggle to get the ball down the field at times, but that was to be expected of a teenager thrown into SEC football. New offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has worked extensively over the off-season with Hurts, and many see the sophomore making a big leap in his second season as starter, perhaps even becoming a Heisman candidate. That may be a lot to ask of the youthful signal-caller, but one thing is for sure: Alabama will not have the big question at QB they have the past few years. At running back, the Tide may have the best collection of backs in the entire country. Junior Damien Harris led the team in rushing yards a season ago with 1,037, and averaged a whopping 7.1 yards per carry. He will almost surely see plenty of action once more in 2017, but fellow junior Bo Scarbrough could take over the featured back role. Scarbrough struggled with injuries for a large chunk of 2016 but when he finally did get healthy, was absolutely dominant. He played a huge role in the team's Playoff run before injury hit once more in the National Championship. He finished up the year with 812 yards and 11 touchdowns, and should put up even bigger numbers this season if he can stay healthy. Also back are sophomores B.J. Emmons and Joshua Jacobs. Neither were very hyped recruits but both showed real flashes of stardom despite being so low on the depth chart. Jacobs managed 567 yards and four touchdowns, while Emmons added 173 yards and one score. While Harris and Scarbrough are your prototypical Alabama power rushers, Emmons and Jacobs provide a nice change of pace as quick, agile weapons on the ground. Another name to watch is true freshman Najee Harris, considered by many as the top running back recruit in the country. Harris fits the mold of past Tide backs such as Derrick Henry, Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram; a massive, ferocious runner that finds ways to move the chain. However, much like Henry and Richardson did, he will likely have to wait his turn with the amount of depth at the position right now. On the outside, Alabama is hopeful junior Calvin Ridley can regain his 2015 form after slumping for a big chunk of '16. As a true freshman in '15, Ridley 1,045 receiving yards in just 11 starts, but managed just 769 receiving yards last season playing in all 15 games. With his speed and deep threat ability, Ridley is a real threat to opposing defenses and if Hurts can get it down the field more, the junior could have a huge season. Many 'Bama fans are hopeful he follows the trend of former Alabama star wide out Amari Cooper, who had a big freshman year, slumped his sophomore season, then had a dominant, Heisman-finalist season his junior season. Also returning at receiver is senior Robert Foster who has been pretty effective when he has been on the field over the past few years, but he's struggled with injuries. Beyond those two, the Tide have a ton of youth at the position, with unproven newcomers like Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith likely having to step into large roles. At tight end, Alabama must replace first-round NFL Draft selection O.J. Howard, who seemed to always play his best in the biggest games. Junior Hale Hentges is more of a blocker but should still see some action in the passing game, while sophomore Irv Smith has loads of potential. On the offensive line, left tackle Cam Robinson may have left for the NFL, but nearly everybody else is back. That includes sophomore Jonah Williams, who wowed NFL scouts a year ago, coming in and playing very well as a true freshman. He'll likely take over that left tackle spot, while All-Conference candidates like Ross Pierschbacher and Bradley Bozeman will also help out.

Defense: The Tide have long prided themselves on elite defense, and that was certainly the case again last year. Alabama allowed just 262 yards per game and 13 points per game, and forced an impressive 29 turnovers over the course of the season. What was even more impressive was how they took advantage of those turnovers, finishing the year with 14 non-offensive touchdowns (which does take special teams into account). This season, they lose their usual crop of NFL draftees but have enough talent waiting in the wings the unit should be tough once more. On the defensive line, Alabama will lose Jonathan Allen, who led the team with 10.5 sacks and was among the nation's most dominant defenders. Yet, the Tide are hopeful junior Da'Shawn Hand can have the breakout season they've long hoped for. Hand was a former five-star recruit and has flashed some real dominance in his time in Tuscaloosca, but has yet to really establish himself as a star. Hand was charged with a DUI over this off-season, perhaps complicating things for the talented end. Even so, when he does get on the field, his size and explosive first step should terrify opponents. He'll be joined by nose guard Da'Ron Payne, another guy getting plenty of NFL attention. Payne isn't much of a pass rusher but the physical linemen still plays an important role in run support and occupying blockers. Much like Hand, he should shine now that he finally has a chance to start. The other defensive end spot is likely to be occupied by either sophomore Raekwon Davis or redshirt frosh Quinnen Williams. Davis had one sack as a true freshman a season ago and has some experience, but Williams' impressive showing in the spring (named Most Important Player of the spring game) may help him lock down the starting role. Alabama was hit the hardest by NFL defections in the linebacker corps, as Rueben Foster, Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson all graduated and are now playing on Sundays. All three had different strengths; Foster was a tackling machine (115 tackles in 2016), Williams an elite-level pass rusher (nine sacks, 12 QB hurries) and Anderson a well-rounded, disciplined 'backer (61 tackles, nine sacks). Senior Shaun Dion Hamilton is the lone returning starter and expect the veteran to play a huge role after a solid season last year, in which he had 64 tackles and nine TFL. The other three players yet to break into starting roles may have been reserves a season ago, but do bring loads of talent. Senior Rashaan Evans is expected to fill Foster's spot at middle linebacker. Evans is known for being a physical, smashmouth defender and he should have no troubles being the next elite 'Bama MLB in a long line of them. Sophomore Anfernee Jennings did not play like a true freshman a year ago (had 19 tackles, 2 TFL) and should get even better with a full off-season under his belt. He'll be joined on the outside by sophomore Terrell Hall, who showed flashes of brilliance in 2016. Expect contributions from sophomore Mack Wilson and newcomer Dylan Moses. Wilson is one of the hardest-hitting players in the entire country (look at this hit he laid on Texas A&M's Speedy Noil) and his ceiling is incredibly high. Moses, meanwhile, is a five-star pickup by the Tide considered by many to be the best defender in the Tide's 2017 Class. Alabama should have no issues slowing down opposing pass offenses, as three impact starters are back. That includes All-American safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was always a threat to change games a year ago. Fitzpatrick finished off the season with six interceptions and returned a number for big gains. If he can continue to be the ball-hawking interception machine in back, this defense will continue to force turnovers at an incredible rate. He'll be aided by fellow returning starters Ronnie Harrison and Anthony Averett. Harrison is a lengthy, athletic free safety whose versatility
Trevon Diggs
will be used quite creatively by D-coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, while Averett may slide into the No. 1 cornerback role with the departure of Marlon Humphrey. That CB spot left open by Humphrey is likely to be taken up by sophomore Trevon Diggs. Diggs, the younger brother of Minnesota Vikings receiver Stefon, originally began his career at receiver but made the switch to defensive back over the off-season. His fabulous instincts and great ball skills should bode very well for this defense.

Special Teams: The search for a new placekicker commenced over this off-season for Alabama, but it's still unclear who it is going to be. Newcomer Joseph Bulovas is competing with former Ole Miss transfer Andy Pappanastos (1-1 field goals, 6-6 extra points in 2016) for the starting job. Senior J.K. Scott may also factor into the race, but the tide will likely want to save his leg for punting duties, where he was an All-American last year.

Few programs can lose the talent Alabama loses year in, year out and still be considered the National Title favorites but that is what happens when you recruit and develop players at the level Nick Saban does. The Tide lose a big chunk from last year's 14-1 team (Cam Robinson, O.J. Howard, ArDarius Stewart, Jonathan Allen, etc.) but could actually be better, particularly offensively. New OC Brian Daboll seems like a better fit with 'Bama and Saban than Lane Kiffin ever was, and Hurts has the talent and smarts to have a big sophomore campaign. With a suffocating, turnover-hungry defense on the other side of the ball and depth everywhere on this roster, there should be nothing standing in the Tide's way. They are my pick to not only win the National Championship, but also likely run the table in the process.

Player to Watch
Jerry Jeudy, WR
There are a number of true freshman who could have big debuts in Tuscaloosca, such as Najee Harris, Dylan Moses or even offensive linemen Alex Leatherwood. However, my bet is on receiver Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy, a five-star prospect out of Deerfield Beach, Florida, has elite explosiveness and athleticism and looked ready to contribute during the spring. With defenses likely keying on Calvin Ridley, 'Bama will look for others to really step up in the passing attack.

Five-Year Trend
2012: 13-1 (8-1 SEC)*
2013: 11-2 (7-1 SEC)*
2014: 12-2 (8-1 SEC)*
2015: 14-1 (8-1 SEC)*
2016: 14-1 (9-0 SEC)*

*= Bowl appearance

Sunday, July 30, 2017

College Football Preview 2017-2018: 13. Georgia Bulldogs

13. Georgia Bulldogs

A dominant backfield should propel an SEC East title run

  • Location: Athens, GA.
  • Conference: SEC (East)
  • Schedule
  • Roster
  • Coach: Kirby Smart (second year)
  • Last Years Record: 8-5 (4-4 SEC)
  • Bowl Result: Victory in Liberty Bowl

Overview

After years of rumors surrounding his likely head coaching future, Kirby Smart finally made the jump from Alabama defensive coordinator to head man in Athens last season. As expected for a first-year head coach in the unforgiving SEC Smart and the Bulldogs had significant ups-and-downs. They were as high as ninth nationally, and did beat Auburn, who was ranked 8th when Georgia beat them. However, overall the team's 8-5 campaign felt like a little bit of a disappointment, especially considering the immense talent on this roster. Entering Year Two, there is no doubt what Smart's goal is: an SEC East title, and likely more. With one of the nation's top backfields and an experienced defense, that goal seems like a distinct possibility.

Nick Chubb
Offense: Smart had quite the quarterback quandary entering 2016. Did he go with the more experienced but less talented Greyson Lambert, or throw true freshman Jacob Eason into the fire and see how the five-star recruit performed? Smart originally planned for Lambert as his guy but quickly turned to Eason, who played well despite his youth. Now a sophomore, there is no question that Eason is the guy for UGA, after he threw for 2,430 yards and 16 touchdowns a season ago. There is no question Eason's talent; he has elite arm strength already and plays with a maturity beyond his years. Even so, the sophomore will have to cut down on his turnovers in '17 and perform better at reading defenses. Eason will be joined in the backfield by senior Nick Chubb, who was impressive last year in his first season removed from a terrifying knee injury in 2015. Chubb had 1,130 yards and eight touchdowns, but those numbers should only improve as he gets healthier and stronger. When the veteran is fully healthy, there is no question his amazing power and breakneck speed make him a Heisman candidate. Keeping Chubb fresh is the fact that the Bulldogs have a plethora of options beyond him, namely fellow senior Sony Michel. Michel has taken advantage of the fact Chubb has had injury issues, as he added 840 yards and four touchdowns last season. Michel doesn't have Chubb's power or natural ability, but provides a wonderful change of pace as a speedster that can break open games. Sophomore Brian Herrien should also see opportunities after managing 363 yards on 63 carries a year ago (5.8 yards per carry). Between those three, you could certainly make the case that Georgia has one of, if not the most, talented and deep backfields in the entire nation. Georgia is hoping that their receivers corps can improve dramatically in 2017 after issues with drops throughout much of '16. Junior Terry Godwin was second on the team in receptions and receiving yards last season but should take over a bigger role as Isaiah McKenzie departs. Godwin isn't very big (5'11", 185 pounds) but makes an impact with his reliable hands and impressive elusiveness when he gets the ball. Expect his 38 catches and 397 yards to increase in a big way as his targets go way up. Sophomore Ryan Ridley is a prime breakout candidate after recording 238 yards as a true freshman. Ridley is an elite-level deep threat (19.8 yards per reception in '16) and should be a perfect fit with Eason's big arm. Junior Michael Chigbu and senior Javon Wims are two other wide outs expected to see much more action in '17 after showing flashes last season. At tight end, Georgia has the young star (Isaac Nauta) and the established veteran (Jeb Blazevich). Nauta was a five-star recruit by most recruiting services prior to 2016 and showed enough that the Bulldogs have to be very excited about his potential, while Blazevich is a tremendous blocker and solid red zone threat. Both should see plenty of action, with Nauta likely to overtake as the full-time starter at some point during the year. Up front, Georgia loses a ton of talent, including two-time All-SEC tackle Greg Pyke and former Rhode Island transfer Tyler Catalina. That should put a lot of pressure on the unit's lone returning starters, senior tackle Isaiah Wynn and junior center Lamont Gaillard, but both have proven they can lead. True freshman Isaiah Wilson, considered one of the top newcomers in the 2017 recruiting class, has a decent chance to start at one of the guard spots, where there is very little depth.

Dominick Sanders
Defense: Kirby Smart's pedigree as a defensive coach certainly helped Georgia's defense in '16, as the group played very well, finishing with the fourth best total defense in the SEC and the 16th nationally. Now, the D returns an astounding 10 starters, ensuring that this group will be incredibly stingy in 2017. It begins with a defensive line that has tons of talent, beginning with junior defensive end Trenton Thompson. Thompson had five sacks last season and showed just how high his ceiling was with a tremendous bowl performance, which helped him earn Liberty Bowl MVP honors in the team's victory. If he can play with the type of focus and energy he played with in that one over the course of a season, he is surely an All-Conference player. Junior Jonathan Ledbetter was suspended the first six games after two alcohol-related arrests but played well when he finally got on the field. He is almost certain to start at the other defensive end spot, giving Georgia two dangerous pass rushers off the edge. Senior nose guard John Atkins doesn't get much credit, but the powerful veteran plays a pivotal role collapsing running lanes in the heart of the unit. Georgia is absolutely loaded at linebacker, where all four starters are back and some haven't fulfilled their full potential yet. Juniors Roquan Smith and Natrez Patrick are the two true stars of the unit, as both led the Bulldogs in tackles a year ago. Smith is one of the rangiest linebackers in the country, making plays from sideline. He doesn't get after the quarterback often, but nearly every other part of the game he offers significant help with. Patrick is back at the ever-important middle linebacker and the future NFL Draft selection should only get better after 59 tackles in his first year as starter. Senior Lorenzo Carter is probably the team's best pure pass rusher, but is still growing in other parts of the game. A former five-star recruit, Carter has loads of talent and did record five sacks last year, but could be one of the top 'backers in the conference if he can really fulfill his vast potential. Senior Davin Bellamy is back at the outside linebacker spot opposite of Carter. Bellamy is quite the relentless pass rusher himself, recording a whopping 17 quarterback hurries in 2016. The Bulldogs have had one of the top pass defenses in the country the past few seasons, and that should be the case once again, as nearly everybody is back in the secondary, with the exception of former Alabama transfer Maurice Smith, who graduated. They are especially strong at safety, where two All-Conference players roam in Malkom Parrish and Dominick Sanders. Parrish will lock down the strong safety job, and the hard-hitting senior should really set the tone for the back once again. Meanwhile, Sanders is a tremendous playmaker who managed three interceptions last season and is always around the ball. Every cornerback in this conference has a tough job having to deal with some of the freaks the SEC has at receiver, but these corners really know how to hold their own. Senior Aaron Davis is a fearless, ultra-competitive CB who will play a huge role, while junior Deandre Baker is expected to start opposite of him.

Special Teams: Sophomore Rodrigo Blankenship took over for redshirt freshman William Ham at kicker early in 2016 and played very well, knocking down 14 of 18 field goals with a long of 49. Expect the unorthodox kicker to get even better in '17 with more experience under his belt. At punter, Georgia hopes sophomore Marshall Long can stay healthy after he was lost for the year, which forced former QB Brice Ramsey to handle punting duties.

Last season's 8-5 mark continued a frustrating trend for Georgia; extremely talented teams that for some reason are unable to get truly over the hump. In fact, since coming within inches of an SEC Championship and likely National Championship berth in 2012, the Bulldogs haven't returned, and have finished just one year ranked, despite being ranked in the preseason every year since. That has put a lot of pressure on Smart to win right away, and once again, the talent that he has on this roster is not a question mark. If Eason can take big steps forward in his second year at the helm, Chubb continues getting healthier and the defense lives up to their astounding talent levels, this team certainly has more than enough to win the SEC East and contend for a Playoff berth. Now, it's merely a matter of execution for the 'Dawgs.

Player to Watch
Nick Chubb, RB
After leading off 2016 with an impressive 222-yard performance in a win over North Carolina, Chubb slowed down. He did still finish with 1,180 yards, but didn't quite live up to what he did in 2014 and in the first half of 2015, when he absolutely feasted on opposing defenses. Now well over a year removed from that scary knee injury that sidelined him for much of '15, Chubb hopes to get back to his old ways. If he can regain his Heisman form, it may mean the difference between the Bulldogs being merely good versus being a Playoff-caliber team.

Five-Year Trend
2012: 12-2 (7-1 SEC)*
2013: 8-5 (5-3 SEC)*
2014: 10-3 (6-2 SEC)*
2015: 10-3 (5-3 SEC)*
2016: 8-5 (4-4 SEC)*

*= Bowl appearance

Thursday, July 27, 2017

College Football Preview 2017-2018: 15. LSU Tigers

15. LSU Tigers

It's a new day in Baton Rouge, but will the same old problems persist?

  • Location: Baton Rouge, LA.
  • Conference: SEC (West)
  • Schedule
  • Roster
  • Coach: Ed Orgeron (first year)
  • Last Years Record: 8-4 (5-3 SEC)
  • Bowl Result: Victory in Citrus Bowl

Overview

There was no questioning how hot Les Miles' seat was in Baton Rouge entering 2016. The long-time, quirky head coach was going to be fired at the end of 2015 but was eventually retained following LSU's season finale victory over Texas A&M. A loss to Wisconsin in the Tigers' opener only warmed Miles seat further and after the team suffered a heartbreaking loss to Auburn, his time eventually came to an end. His replacement, former Ole Miss and USC interim head coach Ed Orgeron went a good, not great, 6-2 after Miles was let go. However, after LSU was unable to convince Houston head coach Tom Herman to come to Louisiana, they opted to bring back Orgeron on a full-time basis. Orgeron will have plenty of talent to work with, including a superstar running back, but unless he can figure out some new things to do with the offense it's hard to realistically see the Tigers overtaking Alabama and others in the loaded SEC West.

Derrius Guice
Offense: The Tigers' offense was putrid for years under former offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, but they hope things change under new OC Matt Canada. Canada arrives from Pittsburgh, where he engineered one of the country's most underrated offenses. Canada will hope to find a way to improve LSU through the air, where have been among the nation's worst teams over the past few seasons. Purdue transfer Danny Etling took over the quarterback job early on last season and while he wasn't terrific he seemed like a significant improvement over incumbent starter Brandon Harris. Harris decided to transfer to North Carolina, which leaves Etling as the clear-cut starter. The senior doesn't have the arm strength or big-time playmaking ability of some of the other solid quarterbacks in the SEC West but his play late in the 2016 campaign should have LSU feeling better about what they can do in the passing game in '17. At running back, the Tigers lose one of the sport's best players in Leonard Fournette, but amazingly could get even better at the position. Junior Derrius Guice filled in for the injured Fournette last year and put on an absolute show, rushing for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns, while averaging 7.6 yards per touch. Guice is reportedly now squatting 650 pounds and has bulked up overall even more this off-season, which should strike fear right into the heart of opposing SEC defenders. In a featured role, there is no reason Guice can't cement himself as a serious Heisman candidate this year. Senior Darrel Williams helped out with 233 yards and three touchdowns in 2016 and should be a nice option as a backup. At receiver, LSU will have to replace two of their better pass-catchers, as Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural both depart. Dupre and Dural never quite put up the stats they had the potential to because of the Tigers' limited passing game but there isn't any denying the offense will miss their explosiveness. Senior D.J. Chark will likely take over as Etling's top weapon in the passing game after recording 466 yards a season ago, which included nearly 18 yards per reception. Beyond Chark, LSU will look towards a long list of players with potential, but who are very unproven. Sophomore Drake Davis is certainly a breakout candidate as the speedster can break open games. However, he had just one reception in six games last season, so it's hard to know what a "breakout" would really look like for the youthful wide out. Senior Russell Gage and sophomore Stephen Sullivan will also look for an increased role in 2017. At tight end, the Tigers must replace rock-solid Collin Jeter (11 catches for 157 yards) but junior Foster Moreau is exceptionally athletic for his position and a real matchup nightmare. There should no questions about what the offensive line can do this season, after it was dominant for much of '16 despite losing plenty of talent. This year, they lose their anchor, guard Ethan Pocic, but still return three starters with significant experience. Juniors Maea Teuhema and Will Clapp will open up massive lanes for Guice to run through, while senior K.J. Malone (the son of NBA legend Karl Malone) will be a staple at left tackle.

Defense: Throughout the Les Miles era in Baton Rouge, LSU consistently had some of the nastiest defenses in the country, and don't expect that to change at all under Orgeron. Former Wisconsin defensive coordinator Dave Aranda did a marvelous job in his first year with the Tigers in 2016, and the group could be even more dominant this season. It all starts with the defensive line, which doesn't have a real star but should still be very stout. Senior defensive end Christian LaCouture missed the entirety of 2016 due to injury but should have a big year now that he is fully healthy. He had 34 tackles in 2015, and has proven that he can give blockers major difficulties. At the other end spot, expect sophomore Rashard Lawrence to put together a big campaign. Lawrence didn't see much action his first season on campus but has really impressed this off-season and has the size (6'5", 300 pounds) to be an absolute force off the edge. Veteran Greg Gilmore (34 tackles in 2016) will lock down the nose tackle position in the Tigers' 3-4 look. At linebacker, LSU returns one of the country's most disruptive pass rushers in outside 'backer Arden Key. Key was a monster throughout last season, with a staggering 12 sacks and 56 tackles. He took a leave of absence from the program during the spring for personal reasons but should return with a vengeance. Aranda and Orgeron are both great at creating exotic blitzes to create different types of pressure, and Key should be at the heart of their efforts. The rest of the linebacker corps must replace some difference-makers, namely Duke Riley and Kendall Beckwith, who led the Tigers in tackles, with 93 and 91, respectively. Senior Donnie Alexander has proven that he can be a major help in run support and he'll have to play a big role at an inside linebacker spot, as will sophomore Devin White, who is expected to start alongside him. The outside linebacker position opposite of Key will see a competition for the starting job, as senior Corey Thompson, redshirt freshman Ray Thornton and sophomore Michael Divinity are all in the mix. Thompson, who was out for all of 2016, may be the favorite as he brings valuable experience and has been in the system since 2012. LSU has produced a long list of terrific defensive backs over the years, a list that includes current NFL stars such as Patrick Peterson, Morris Claiborne, Tyrann Mathieu and this year's No. 6 overall selection Jamal Adams. Adams really was a playmaker for this defense last season, recording 76 tackles and 6.5 tackles for loss. Even so, the defensive backfield should once more be very good, particularly at cornerback. Former five-star
Kevin Toliver
recruit Kevin Toliver is ready to step into a starting role, and the lengthy junior could have a huge season. Fellow junior Donte Jackson, who had eight pass breakups and two interceptions last season, is expected to join him as a starter but Saivion Smith, one of the stars of the 2016 recruiting class, should push him for snaps. At safety, LSU has nobody can that truly replace Adams' range and playmaking ability, but seniors Ed Paris and John Battle bring impressive experience.

Special Teams: Long-time placekicker Colby Delahoussaye departs after knocking down 11 of 15 field goals last season but big-legged senior Cameron Gamble could actually end up being an improvement at the position. Punting-wise sophomore Josh Growden returns after averaging 41.4 yards per punt in 2016. The return game shouldn't be a problem, with Guice and Donte Jackson likely to see plenty of opportunities.

Despite the fact Miles won a National Title in 2007 and played for another one in 2011, LSU fans, boosters, and alums alike were clearly frustrated with the direction of the program, which now hasn't won double-digit games since 2013 and has lost six straight to intense rival Alabama. The arrival of Orgeron and Canada should breath new life and energy into the program, and there should be no denying how talented the Tigers are on both sides of the ball. Yet, it's hard to see LSU really taking the next step until their passing game improves in a big way, which puts significant pressure on Etling and the receivers to make the offense more balanced. If the aerial attack improves, this is a team that can realistically contend for an SEC title and Playoff berth but if not, it's very hard to imagine the Tigers advancing much farther past the 8-9 threshold that's held them back the last few seasons.

Player to Watch
Danny Etling, QB
Etling was able to take over Brandon Harris' job in his first season of being eligible after transferring from Purdue, and had some major ups-and-downs. His downs were very severe (11-24 for 92 yards against Alabama) but he did play very well towards the end of the year, including throwing for over 300 yards against Texas A&M and shredding Louisville in the bowl game. Etling doesn't need to be an All-SEC quarterback but if he can at least improve on his 59 percent completion percentage or become a more dangerous down-the-field passer this team becomes much, much more dangerous.

Five-Year Trend
2012: 10-3 (6-2 SEC)*
2013: 10-3 (5-3 SEC)*
2014: 8-5 (4-4 SEC)*
2015: 9-3 (5-3 SEC)*
2016: 8-4 (5-3 SEC)*

*= Bowl appearance



Friday, January 27, 2017

Who is the Best Team in College Basketball?

Josh Hart, Villanova
While March and April tend to be the craziest months of the college basketball season, that doesn't mean the sport is devoid of plenty of upsets and chaos well before that. This past week we saw plenty of evidence of that; the nation's top team, Villanova, surrendered a 15-point lead before losing to Marquette, No. 2 Kansas lost to high-flying West Virginia, Kentucky dropped to Tennessee despite being a heavy favorite and the Pac-12's "best" team, UCLA, lost twice. While an important weekend of college hoops will help us gain some clarity, it doesn't appear there is any true, invincible team to beat. Even so, there are a long list of contenders that could fit the mold of being the best in the land.

Villanova Wildcats (19-2, 6-2 Big East)
The reigning National Champion Wildcats have followed up last year's terrific run with a great year, jumping out to a 14-0 mark before suffering their first loss of the season to Butler. Their loss to Marquette, a solid, but unranked team, is likely to drop them from their perch at No. 1. With that being said, this team still has all the ingredients of a very good basketball team. Guard Josh Hart put his name into the NBA Draft before eventually returning, and the results have spoken for themselves. He is averaging 19 points per game while shooting extremely efficiently and appears to be near the forefront of the Wooden Award race. Joining Hart has been a steady crop of veterans, namely Kris Jenkins (last year's National Championship Game hero is averaging 13.7 PPG and 4.0 RPG) and point guard Jalen Brunson. Brunson doesn't get a whole lot of national attention, but the sophomore's growth has been a major reason for Villanova's success in '16-'17, as he has played smarter and with more confidence, while taking over the key role of running the offense from departed Ryan Arcidiacono. While their losses over the past few weeks have shown the Wildcats are far from perfect, this team still appears to be a prime example of a legitimate National Title contender. They have enough depth, talent and experience to repeat as champions of the sport.

Gonzaga Bulldogs (21-0, 9-0 West Coast Conference)
With plenty of teams losing in front of them, it appears the nation's lone unbeaten, Gonzaga, has a chance to take over the No.1 spot, but do they deserve it? The extremely consistent Bulldogs are up to their usual tricks, bulldozing the rest of the West Coast Conference en route to a 9-0 conference start. They also recorded a healthy amount of solid non-conference victories, including beating Florida, Arizona and Iowa State. Much of their success can be attributed to a number of high-profile newcomers, namely Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss and freshman Zach Collins. Williams-Goss has shown excellent command of the offense, while the youthful Collins is leading Gonzaga in rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage. Plus, 'Zaga always has gigantic Przemek Karnowski to fall back on, as the 7'1", 300-pound behemoth continues to bully opponents in the paint. Even so, there are a wide number of detractors who don't believe in Gonzaga. Playing in such a weak conference has never helped the Bulldogs gain national respect, and one could argue this team simply doesn't deserve to be called the nation's best team when they are beating squads like Portland as others are battling it out in the brutal ACC or Big 12 every night. I think Gonzaga has their usual fair share of offensive weapons and diversity, but I agree it is hard to get behind a team whose resume is not quite up to snub with some of the other top teams.

Kansas Jayhawks (18-2, 7-1 Big 12)
Like clockwork, Kansas just keeps on churning out successful seasons. The Jayhawks have withstood the losses of guys like Wayne Selden and Perry Ellis, managing to look perhaps even better in the process. You could definitely argue Kansas has the nation's best backcourt, with Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham leading the charge. Mason is as good as ever, as the senior is putting up 19.9 PPG with 5.2 APG, while the fearless Graham has proven to be one heck of a complement. When joined by tremendous freshman Josh Jackson and vastly improved Svi Mykhailiuk, you definitely can see the talent on display in Lawrence. Yet, there are also some questions KU has to answer. Key forward Carlton Bragg was just recently suspended indefinitely and his future is very murky, which hurts an already thin frontcourt. Also concerning is the vast amount of great teams in the always-tough Big 12, namely West Virginia and Baylor. Even so, KU has still won 12 straight conference titles, and looks to be clearly very good as we progress through 2017.

Baylor Bears (19-1, 7-1 Big 12)
Even the most optimistic fans in Waco may not have expected the type of season Baylor has had in 2016-2017. The Bears beat Oregon, Louisville and Xavier in the non-conference before a hot start to their Big 12 slate. They reached the pinnacle of No. 1 before a 19-point loss to West Virginia, but have responded with four straight victories, including two road wins over tough Kansas State and TCU. Big man Johnathan Motley has been a major reason for the Bears success, as the productive forward is nearly averaging a double-double (16.2 PPG, 9.6 RPG), while Miami transfer Manu Lecomte has also evolved into an All-Conference player. The big question has got to be who is on the sidelines. Head coach Scott Drew has turned around Baylor's program since he arrived, but has received plenty of criticism for his in-game and situational coaching. Against some of the other powers of the sport, who are just as talented, that could be a serious issue. Baylor still as a significant chance to be the No. 2 team in the polls next week, and a matchup with Kansas on the road could still be very telling on just how good this team is.

Kentucky Wildcats (17-3, 7-1 SEC)
Despite being immensely talented, there was certainly some questions on just how well Kentucky and their youngsters would mesh this season. Although there is still plenty of time left, the Wildcats appear to have silenced any doubters. Their youthful backcourt has been astounding, with wonderful production from freshmen Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox and sophomore Isaiah Briscoe. There was plenty of hype surrounding Monk on to '16-'17, but has smashed expectations, averaging nearly 22 points per game and dominating in a victory against UNC. Also helping out Kentucky's case is the weak conference they play in, which could help them close out the year in a big way. While South Carolina and Florida are okay, there doesn't appear to much competition for the 'Cats in the conference and while there is still plenty of time left, they might not lose another game this year, if they can get past Kansas this weekend.

Arizona Wildcats (19-2, 8-0 Pac-12)
There is no denying how good this Arizona team is when at full strength. After being beat up heavily to start the season, Arizona is flaming hot, flawless in the Pac-12 at the moment, and just beat UCLA. Dynamic forward Lauri Markannen has gone from a unheralded name to an absolute force, and true freshman Kobi Simmons has been extremely productive, and led the way to the upset of the Bruins. Perhaps most important for 'Zona, though, is the return of Allonzo Trier. Trier was suspended after testing positive for an illegal substance but is back, and could take over the duty of being the No.1 scorer on the roster. Meetings with Washington and Oregon State await before a huge clash with the similarly-hot Oregon Ducks, which could play a huge role on not only the Pac-12 scene but national stage.


The Verdict: This has been an interesting season of college basketball up to this point, and things should get even more crazy as conference play continues. There is so much talent and upside on so many different teams, and even teams not mentioned here could very well end the year as National Champs (see UNC, UCLA, Oregon, Florida State, etc.). At this juncture, my pick for the nation's top team: Villanova. It may seem relatively unexciting because they are the defending champs and have been locked up at No. 1 for a large chunk of the season. They have the veteran leadership, scoring punch and versatility needed to beat anybody in the nation, even if they don't have the same flash as say, Kentucky. Yet, there is still plenty of basketball left to be played, and things will change. While the title of "college basketball's best team" is still up for debate some things are not: this will be a season filled with plenty more upsets and a lot more fun before it is all said and done.

Friday, December 30, 2016

College Football Playoff 2016-2017: Previewing the Peach Bowl

Ronnie Harrison and Marlon Humphrey
So here we are, the College Football Playoff. After waiting months for the season to begin, and then even longer for the Playoff to figure itself out, we finally have reached the games that will help decide who plays in the National Championship. The first matchup in the Peach Bowl pits the dominating Alabama Crimson Tide against the rising Washington Huskies. While Alabama's domination this year pits them as the early favorite against the Pac-12 Champs, thinking this will be a blowout would be foolish.

Alabama has needed no rally in the season's second half to reach the Playoff like they did in 2015. This team has throughly dominated their competition, with the lone exception being down in the first half against Ole Miss before obliterating the Rebels. Much of their success can be attributed to a shutdown defense, that has depth and talent everywhere. In the front seven, defensive end Jonathan Allen has evolved into perhaps the nation's best all-around pass rusher after having a marvelous Playoff last season. He is joined by aggressive outside linebacker Tim Williams (15.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks), tackling machine Rueben Foster (94 tackles) and a host of underappreciated but important defenders like Ryan Anderson and Shaun Dion Hamilton. That front seven has caused chaos all year long and will look to attack a Washington offensive line that has played well for much of the year, but hasn't faced a defense with this many weapons. Alabama is as good as anyone at forcing turnovers and then converting off of them, and the defensive backfield plays a huge role in that. Versatile defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick has five interceptions on the year and has returned two to the house. Corner Marlon Humphrey is not an insane athlete, but is a big, physical defender that will be tasked with stopping Washington's plethora of options at receiver. Also sure to play a big role is lengthy safety Ronnie Harrison (67 tackles, two interceptions) and Tony Brown, who has replaced the injured Eddie Jackson in the back. Those playmakers will have an interesting battle against the Huskies here. They will have to contain the impressive speed on the outside, while also containing the big play. With what they have done all year long, it isn't crazy to think they can do it.

The Tide offense doesn't quite get the attention the defense does, but it obviously plays a key role on the team. True freshman Jalen Hurts overtook others in the quarterback competition and has impressed ever since. Despite his youth, Hurts has shown amazing composure and confidence, and won't be intimidated at all by Washington's impressive pass defense. At running back, the Tide have been led by hard running Damien Harris (983 yards), but also have important change-of-pace options in Bo Scarbrough and Joshua Jacobs. That trio has been strong all of 2016 and should look to take advantage of a UW rush defense missing one of its key members, veteran linebacker Azeem Victor. At receiver, Alabama has a superstar in junior Calvin Ridley, a quality No. 2 in ArDarius Stewart and senior tight end O.J. Howard, who seems to play his best in the big games. Operating behind an offensive line, this new-look Tide offense should not only be able to play physical and overpower the Huskies at times but also open up mismatches on the perimeter with their speed.

While the Tide have blown away competition en route to a flawless 13-0 mark, Washington has done much the same, with one blemish. The Huskies used their explosive offense to win 12 games, but were unable to get past the flaming hot USC Trojans, who is the only common opponent between the two. While their performance in that loss was not reassuring, it helped Washington poured it on over the past few weeks to secure a spot in the four-team field. Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning has had a tremendous year, keeping himself in the Heisman conversation for much of it. He will definitely be in store for a team matchup against the ball-hawking Tide secondary, but this signal-caller has also played with impressive confidence and charisma, he should be fine. Biletnikoff Award finalist John Ross III and Dante Pettis give Browning two dangerous speedsters to work with at wide out, and sophomore tailback Myles Gaskin has been dominant at times. This offense has been great all year (with the exception of their 13 points against 'SC), so it should be able to light up the scoreboard as well.

It will be interesting to see how Washington's defense performs in this game. Overall, the Huskies defense has played well this season, but it hasn't really faced an offense quite like the Tide's. Not helping out the Huskies is the absence of Victor (broken leg) or top pass rusher Joe Mathis. Mathis had 7.5 tackles for loss and five sacks before sustaining a foot injury. The absence of those two have put more pressure on the rest of the front seven, and they have done an admirable job. Veteran leader Psalm Wooching plays with a ton of energy and passion and is the type of physical tackler required to stop Harris and the rest of the Alabama running backs. The secondary is clearly the strength of the unit, with cornerback Sidney Jones and safety Budda Baker leading the charge. Baker is a rangy, athletic defender that will have to play all over the field, while Jones will most likely be tasked with containing Ridley, which is not an easy assignment by any means. Also sure to play a large role is underrated corner Kevin King, who had 13 pass deflections this season and will have to step up with the abundance of options Alabama possesses at receiver.

How each team passes the ball will be key in this game. Both of these secondaries pride themselves on being shutdown and have backed it up, being some of the best statistical groups in the land. For the Huskies, Browning can't turn the ball over, which is easier said than done. The young QB has racked up a ton of yardage off of big plays in '16, but that isn't going to happen against this disciplined Tide group. Can he show smarts and the ability to adapt by having more success on short and intermediate throws? Washington must also get a major contribution from Gaskin, who has been inconsistent. In the Huskies' worst showings on the season (against USC and Utah) Gaskin has played his two worst games. Alabama is great at shooting gaps and tackling in space, which is worrying for UW. If Gaskin can't get going this offense becomes way too one-dimensional to have any success against 'Bama. For the Tide, they will need Hurts to make some big throws. He has been able to get by without necessarily making huge throws, but this may be their toughest and most balanced opponent yet. He will need to stretch UW vertically to open things up for this ground game. Once that ground game gets going, if its the second half, they are so strong and physical they overpower tired defenses.

Washington is one heck of a team and they have had a magical season in head coach Chris Petersen's third year at the helm. They went 12-1, won the conference and reached the Playoff, and they have enough weapons on both sides of the ball to perhaps do some serious damage. Even so, I find it insanely difficult to pick against Alabama. They are undefeated and have looked the part, beating down anybody that stands in the way of their goal of a fifth national title under Nick Saban. The ony way I see this going Washington's way is if the Tide aren't focused (like they weren't in the Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State in 2014-2015) or if Browning has the game of his life. If that doesn't happen, it won't be a blowout, but the Tide should roll pretty comfortably.
Alabama, 31 Washington, 21

Monday, December 19, 2016

Bowl Picks 2016-2017: Bahamas Bowl to St. Petersburg Bowl

Fred Ross, Mississippi State
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl (December 23rd)
Old Dominion Monarchs (9-3) vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5)

Due to the fact they play in the MAC, Eastern Michigan didn't get the attention it deserved throughout much of 2016. The Eagles improved from a lowly one-win 2015 to win seven this season and finish off .500 in the conference. They will hope to keep the magical season going against an Old Dominion team looking to record their first double-digit season at the FBS level. The key for Eastern Michigan will be containing senior quarterback David Washington, a dangerous dual threat. Washington threw for 2,648 yards and 28 touchdowns, while also rushing for 205 more. Washington's arm is not quite as strong as others but the veteran makes the right reads and had just four interceptions all of '16. Junior running back Ray Lawry is also rock-solid, rushing for over 1,000 yards himself. Those two, paired with a defense hungry to prove itself after a relatively poor showing in the season's second half, should be enough to put the Monarchs in very good position. Old Dominion will have to contain the Eagles' cast of offensive weapons, namely sophomore back Ian Eriksen, who has run for 741 yards. If they do that, the EMU offense could struggle to move the ball, as quarterback Brogan Roback has not proven he can lead the Eagles to victories all alone just yet. No bowl games are locks, particularly in the crazy sport that is college football. However, this one may be as close to a lock as possible. The Monarchs were one of the best teams in the C-USA, and have won eight of nine, while EMU still has some serious flaws and is inexperienced in the postseason.
Old Dominion, 38 Eastern Michigan, 24

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl (December 23rd)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5) vs. Navy Midshipmen (9-4)

Big-time offenses should be a common theme in the Armed Forces Bowl this season, as both Navy and Louisiana Tech have proven they can light up the scoreboard. However, these two squads light up the scoreboard in much different ways. The Bulldogs have a wonderful passing offense, behind the huge arm of quarterback Ryan Higgins, who tossed for 4,208 yards and 37 scores on the year, en route to C-USA MVP honors. Paired with underrated receiver Trent Taylor (1,570 yards, 124 receptions) La. Tech should put up points as usual, even against a Navy defense that has plenty of experience. On the other side, the Midshipmen are led by their triple-option offense, which was scorching hot near the end of the regular season, most namely a 75-point showing against SMU. That offense was terrifying to opposing defenses mainly because of the play of senior Will Worth, who leads Navy in both passing (1,397 yards) and rushing (1,198 yards). Unfortunately, Worth's career is most likely over after breaking his foot late in the year. Zach Abey, who began the year No. 3 on Navy's depth chart, appears to be the starter for the game, although that is still unclear. No matter who takes over the quarterback reigns, Navy will still lean on their orchestrated ground attack. Louisiana Tech is spotty throughout their defense, and they haven't faced a triple-option offense like Navy's this year. They may have time to prepare for the unique offense the Midshipmen run, but Navy should still find a way to put up points. It should be an intriguing battle of different football philosophies and should be competitive. I like Navy a lot this year, but it may be hard to imagine them overcoming the loss of so much at quarterback against a scorching hot Bulldogs team.
Louisiana Tech, 40 Navy, 28


Dollar General Bowl (December 23rd)
Ohio Bobcats (8-5) vs. Troy Trojans (9-3)

This has been a season of massive success in Troy, but one filled with potential for even more. At the end of the day, the Trojans went 9-3 on the year, finished off in the top half of a sneaky tough Sun Belt, and were the first Sun Belt team to ever be ranked in the AP Top 25. However, two losses in their final three doomed slim New Year's Six Bowl chances, and lost any chance of a conference title. The Trojans also went toe to toe with Clemson for nearly four quarters, before the Tigers pulled out late. If Troy had managed to pull that one off, it would have possibly been the biggest upset of the year. The Trojans will hope for a positive way to finish off a wacky year against a tough Ohio squad who won the MAC East. Back Jordan Chunn and quarterback Brandon Silvers give Troy a dangerous 1-2 punch to work with, which is particularly dangerous against a solid, physical O-Line. Chunn can break off huge runs every time he touches the ball, while Silvers is an interesting dual threat. For the Bobcats, defense has been important, with veterans everywhere stepping up. Since their season opener when they allowed 56 in a loss to Texas State, Ohio has been great defensively. If they can stay disciplined and smart, they should be able to give Troy a tough time. The key will be on the other side, where Ohio has struggled to score themselves at times. QB Greg Windham has had his moments but the quarterback situation has been murky, although they do have a lethal perimeter option in Sebastian Smith (54 catches, 877 yards). Ohio is a rock-solid program that can compete every day with their defense, but this will be a tough one. Troy is a balanced and experienced football team, and the game is being played in their own backyard, at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile. With that in mind, the Trojans should rise to the occasion and complete a ten-win campaign,
Troy, 27 Ohio, 20

Hawai'i Bowl (December 24th)
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) vs. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (6-7)

It has taken some painful years, but Hawai'i has finally returned to a bowl game. Once a fun and interesting program to watch, Hawai'i suffered for years under former head coach Norm Chow, while undergoing a shift from their pass-happy air raid scheme to a pro-style attack (while the university struggled to even fund the team). They have returned to the postseason behind energetic first year head coach Nick Rolovich, who will hope to lead the Rainbow Warriors past a good Middle Tennessee team. The Blue Raiders have grown into a very respectable program, and were one of the best in the C-USA this season. Much of that success from Middle Tennessee can be attributed to immense talent at the skill positions. Ole Miss transfer I'Tavius Mathers has dominated at running back, rushing for 1,504 yards and 16 scores. Quarterback Brent Stockstill, the coach's son, is extremely efficient and doesn't turn the ball over. And then there is sophomore Richie James, one of the nation's most reliable receivers, hauling in 97 receptions for 1,463 yards. Those three should look to capitalize against a Hawai'i defense that has improved since letting up big yardage to Davis Webb and Cal in Week One, but still has issues. Something watch is the status of Stockstill, who is not 100 percent and is questionable. For the Rainbow Warriors, the key will be playing smart and controlling field position. They have a number of solid weapons to work with, but Middle Tennessee's defense is well-prepared; they have seen some explosive offenses in the Conference USA. Even to get Hawai'i to a bowl in Year One was a big success for Rolovich, and the home folks should go out and support in their home state. Even so, the Rainbow Warriors will need some magic and to force some turnovers in order to stop the Blue Raiders.
Middle Tennessee, 35 Hawai'i, 21

St. Petersburg Bowl (December 26th)
Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (6-6) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7)

Often times in college football, we often do see teams start off 6-0 or 7-0 and fall flat in the season's second half, usually as depth issues and/or a tough schedule catch up to them. We usually don't see it quite the other way, when a team starts off 0-6, and then ends up running the table. Yet, that happened to Miami (Ohio) this year. The Redhawks started off the year lethargically, going 0-6 with a loss to FCS foe Eastern Illinois. Then, things just changed and they caught fire, winning their last six to become bowl eligible. The offense still has some issues, but the group improved in a big way defensively, and played with much more confidence in the second half of the year. They won't have an easy bowl test, though, as Mississippi State hopes to prove they deserve in a bowl. The Bulldogs had some moments, namely beating then-No. 4 Texas A&M, but overall had some issues adjusting to life without QB Dak Prescott. The Bulldogs even suffered a loss to South Alabama, a Sun Belt school that had never defeated anybody from the mighty SEC. Despite that, Miss. State looked much better as the year wore on, thanks in large part to the emergence of signal-caller Nick Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald threw for 2,287 yards but was even better as a runner, rushing for 1,243 yards. He should be in store for a big day, even against a motivated Miami defense. Mississippi State can't allow him to do it all on his own. Receiver Fred Ross should be able to beat smaller defenders with his impressive size, and the youthful but athletic defense will be eager to play. Miami has had a truly incredible year, but it is tough to imagine them taking down an SEC team, particularly with the Bulldogs playing their best football of the year right now.
Mississippi State, 33 Miami (Ohio), 17