Thursday, June 27, 2019

College Football Preview 2019: 20. Army Black Knights

20. Army Black Knights

A dark horse New Year's Six Bowl possibility, Army will roll through an extremely soft schedule


Kelvin Hopkins Jr.
Offense: A 70-14 beatdown of Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl was the culmination of a very successful Army offense in 2018. They'll return the engineer of the offense, QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr., as well as a number of supporting pieces that should ensure this group keeps on humming.

Hopkins was a pleasant surprise for head coach Jeff Monken and his staff, becoming the first player in Army history to finish with 1,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. He showed solid arm talent but of course, his real strength is his mobility. Hopkins is exceptionally quick for a quarterback and is masterful with the pitch. Don't be surprised if he puts together a monster senior season.

Reliable backs Andy Davidson and Darnell Woolfolk depart from a powerful triple-option attack, but the Black Knights have options ready to step up. Senior Connor Slomka is almost sure to see big-time usage as the No. 1 FB, a year removed from gaining 324 yards and five scores. The real playmaker in the backfield, however, will be senior Kell Walker. Walker is an intelligent, skilled rusher who can make plays as a receiver out of the backfield. Walker recorded 490 total yards from scrimmage a season ago, averaging 15.5 yards per catch.

Receivers certainly play a different role in this Army offense as primarily blockers versus pass-catchers. It is an interesting position, but the Black Knights have a number of guys who do it well. Junior Cam Harrison has the talent to do bigger things, totaling 129 yards and one touchdown on just four catches. Seniors Glen Coates and Kjetil Cline add reliable veterans on the outside who can do some things down the field. The tight end spot is up for grabs at the end of spring, although junior Jake Lauer seems primed to see starting snaps.

Army's offensive line does a whole lot of work in this ground-and-pound offense, so bringing back three starters is a win. Senior guard Jaxson Deaton can be used to open up massive running lanes, as can fellow guard Peyton Reeder. Junior right tackle J.B. Hunter is also returning on the outside. This group has fabulous athleticism and solid experience. If they can patch up a few spots, the front has a chance to be really, really good.

Army doesn't play a pretty brand of football, but their triple-option attack has proven itself as incredibly tricky to stop. The Black Knights averaged 312.5 yards per game on the ground in '18, numbers which could be much the same this fall with Hopkins still in charge. Replicating 32.8 points per game could also be possible, but that may require better play from the O-Line in short yardage situations.

Defense: While their offense is unique and interesting, their defense plays a pretty simplistic scheme that is highly effective. Army is incredibly physical and stingy, and they're disciplined to get to their spots and fill. They allowed just 17.7 PPG in '18, which was tenth in the entire nation.

Retooling the D-Line has to be priority No. 1 for Monken and the defensive staff into fall camp and the regular season. Veteran Jacob Covington has played well as a reserve and fits in nicely at the nose tackle position, but there is just not much pass rushers proven right now. Junior end Edriece Patterson has the upside to do some real damage, bringing the QB down twice in very limited action this past fall.

Alex Aukerman and James Nachtigal were the guiding forces behind much of the Army defense last season, but both are now gone. That puts more pressure on returnee Cole Christiansen, but the Knights have done a good job reloading at this position in the past. Christiansen was second on the team in tackles last fall, with 77, while proving he could wreck chaos in opposing backfields (12 tackles for loss). Neither outside linebacker spot has a proven starter right now, but there remains loads of potential. Senior Donovan Lynch has moved around a little bit in his college career, but could go out with a bang.

The Knights had the 21st best pass defense in America in 2018, and now bring back three starters in the secondary. That will allow this team a little bit of flexibility and time for the front seven to learn things on the fly. Senior Elijah Riley has cemented his role as this team's top cover corner, and he has the talent to earn national recognition in 2019. Riley got his hands on 10 passes in '18, while being a factor in run support. Junior Jahvhari Bordeau is important opposite of Riley, as quarterbacks learned they wouldn't get it easy going at him last year. The cornerback position also boasts fabulous depth top to bottom.

Jaylon McClinton is perhaps the defense's top playmaker, and may be one of the most underrated defensive backs in the country. McClinton stuffed the stat sheet with 54 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 interceptions and 6 pass deflections. He plays a downhill, hard-hitting brand of football that really gives this defense a lot of energy. Senior Ryan Velez is expected to ascend into a starting role, where he'll have to learn quickly.

Even though Army doesn't recruit the athletes other elite defenses have, they still have one of the best units around. Losing a ton on the front seven will be a difficult task, but Christiansen, along with a loaded secondary, will ensure success. This defense will also have the benefit of going up against a bunch of mediocre offenses this fall.

Special Teams: Army is searching for a new placekicker and punter, battles that could linger into fall. Landon Salyers went 1-4 on field goals a year ago but is now the expected starter with John Abercrombie graduated. The return game was very bad last season but has a chance to get a lot better, with Kell Walker ready to open things up.

Bottom Line: That 70-14 pounding of Houston was the finishing touches of a magical Army 2018, where they went 11-2 and once again beat Navy. Just as impressive was the fact they could hang with the big boys, challenging eventual Playoff participant Oklahoma to OT in a 28-21 loss. It is never easy to completely replicate such a successful season, but the Black Knights are dangerous entering 2019. They have speed and versatility on offense, as well as legit All-American talent in places on defense. Just as encouraging is a schedule that could be among the easiest in the entire FBS. Outside of a road trip to Ann Arbor to challenge Michigan, Army will likely be favored in every single game. Their road games are incredibly manageable beyond UM (UTSA, Western Kentucky, Georgia State, Air Force, Hawaii) and their arch-rival, Navy, is still rebuilding. This is a golden time for Army football and it isn't unreasonable to think they could crash the New Year's Six party come winter. At the very least, their meeting with the Wolverines should show the world how strong the football program has become up at West Point.

Team Projections
Projected Record: 11-2
Offensive MVP: QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr.
Defensive MVP: S Jaylon McClinton
Breakout Player of the Year: FB Connor Slomka
Impact Freshman: TE Simon Dellinger

Five-Year Trend
2014: 4-8
2015: 2-10
2016: 8-5
2017: 10-3
2018: 11-2

Monday, June 24, 2019

College Football Preview 2019: 21. Nebraska Cornhuskers

21. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Scott Frost returns enough for a Big Ten West Title in second season in Lincoln


J.D. Spielman, Nebraska
Offense: Scott Frost is well-respected around college football as an offensive-minded head coach and his first group with Nebraska did not disappoint. The 'Huskers finished 2018 with a total yards average of 456.2, which was second best in the Big Ten.

Adrian Martinez dealt with early injuries to put together a very productive freshman campaign. He finished the year with 2,617 yards and 17 touchdowns, while also opening things up with his legs. Martinez is the perfect for the Frost offense as a mobile QB who can get the ball down the field. Some view him a legitimate Heisman contender, although he'll have to cut down on turnovers.

Frost loves to utilize a deep stable of backs who can do multiple things, but that may be challenging entering 2019. Maurice Washington is their top returning rusher, with 465 yards and three touchdowns, but he has had run-ins with the law. His status for next fall is completely unclear, which will leave the Cornhuskers in a tough place. Nebraska has brought in former Georgia Tech rusher Dedrick Mills. Mills spent this season exploding with Garden City CC of the junior college ranks, but has the talent to be very productive in this Nebraska offense. Freshman Wan'Dale Robinson could see snaps coming out of SEC country (Frankfurt, KY).

Junior wide out J.D. Spielman is a dynamic perimeter receiver ready to up his play in 2019. Spielman led all Cornhusker receivers with eight touchdowns and was a freak in the open field. Nebraska will be creative in getting the lightning-quick target the football. He is an All-Big Ten type of talent who also added 66 catches last fall. 

Martinez will surely miss leading receiver Stanley Morgan Jr. (1,004 yards) but there is still talent beyond Spielman. Sophomore Kade Warner saw solid snaps last year and proved to have reliable hands, bringing in 17 catches. He will see expanded playing time over the course of the season. Jaron Woodyard is another JUCO guy who could play a major role in this offense. Coming out of Arizona Western Community College, he'll be used as a nice complementary piece in this offense.

The offensive line could be a hindrance to this Nebraska offense, as three key starters depart. With that being said both tackle spots seem to be in good hands, as junior Brenden James has 21 consecutive starters entering '19. Right tackle will be manned by fellow junior Matt Farniok.

This could be a very exciting group for Frost, although Martinez will have to take some major steps forward. That isn't implausible considering what past Frost quarterbacks have done, and the other weapons he returns. Spielman and Warner can open things outside, possibly enough to push this team to the Big Ten Championship Game.

Defense: The Cornhuskers allowed nearly 200 yards of rush offense a game in 2018, so the ground defense has to improve. The good news is that the defensive line could get a lot better, which will be crucial in the ground-and-pound football of the Big Ten West.

Junior defensive end Ben Stille is one of Nebraska's top returning rushers, coming off a performance in which he recorded five sacks. The coaching staff is hopeful he can make even larger improvements in '19, as well as senior Carlos Davis, who has flashed potential but is yet to put it all together. The 'Huskers got quite the win when Oklahoma State transfer Darrion Daniels opted to head to Lincoln. Daniels is a gap-eating interior linemen who has played a lot of snaps at the Power Five football, which will certainly bode well for this defense.

Even though three starting linebackers are gone from the Cornhuskers' 3-4 look, the most important piece returns in Mohamed Barry. Barry finished 2018 with 112 tackles, which was the most from any Nebraska defender since Lavonte David all the way back in 2011. He will have to pick up the slack for a group that doesn't have much experience elsewhere. Junior JoJo Domann is a fascinating character to watch, as he is a favorite to start at outside 'backer. Yet, Domann is versatile enough to help out at safety, where he started his college career. Domann has bulked up a lot over the off-season, as has talented senior Tyrin Ferguson.

It may have been ninth in the conference and 78th nationally and yet Nebraska's pass defense was one of their strengths a year ago. A couple of holdovers remain in place, with the most notable piece being senior corner Lamar Jackson. Jackson has the talent to be the No. 1 cornerback, coming off a fall in which he picked off two passes and had seven pass deflections. Dicaprio Bootle proved to be a solid defender next to Jackson, although he didn't pick off any throws last season, which he'll be hopeful to change this fall. Sophomore Cam Taylor impressed during the spring and has a legitimate chance to push for starting snaps in 2019.

Both safety spots will be in a transition phase during this season, with two new starters. Junior Deontai Williams has some starting experience and proved that he could be a playmaker when needed for this defense. Senior Eric Lee is slated to see a major role, hoping to end his Nebraska career with a bang.

This unit has plenty of room for improvement after a rough 2018, but a second year under coordinator Erik Chinader should establish crucial continuity. And, there is a good amount of leadership and experience returning, which will obviously be huge. Barry could be one of the top defenders in the entire Big Ten on the season, while the secondary has enough tools to be a real strength.

Special Teams: Barret Pickering ended his 2018 on a tear as the placekicker, knocking in his final 10 field goals to finish the year 14-18. He will surely be the big leg for this Nebraska team again entering '19. The return game has real upside, headlined by Spielman who had six punt returns for 104 yards (17.3 average) and returned one to the house.

Bottom Line: They might have gone 4-8 in Frost's debut, but most around college football understand that the 'Huskers are somewhat of a sleeping giant at this point. Frost has a roster that looks like it will better fit his offense in 2019, which should strike fear into the rest of the Big Ten West. While most eyes will be on that offense and how Martinez matures, the defense will determine whether the 'Huskers can truly awaken. There are pieces top to bottom and experience, but there is a lot of ground to make up from a group that allowed too many big plays and was very undisciplined last fall. With that being said, Nebraska still looks like the likely favorite in a wide-open West Division, where six schools have a legit chance to win the division title. Playing in Lucas Oil Stadium come early December isn't an unreasonable goal, although the 'Huskers numerous questions will have to be remedied quickly.

Team Projections
Projected Record: 9-4 (6-2 Big Ten, Loss in Championship Game)
Offensive MVP: QB Adrian Martinez
Defensive MVP: LB Mohamed Barry
Breakout Player of the Year: WR Kade Warner
Impact Freshman: RB Wan'Dale Robinson

Five-Year Trend
2014: 9-4 (5-3 Big Ten)
2015: 6-7 (3-5 Big Ten)
2016: 9-4 (6-3 Big Ten)
2017: 4-8 (3-6 Big Ten)
2018: 4-8 (3-6 Big Ten)

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

NBA Mock Draft 2019: Edition 3 (Final Edition)

Darius Garland to New Orleans
1. New Orleans Pelicans
Zion Williamson, F, Duke
There is zero chance New Orleans goes with anyone but Zion with the No. 1 overall selection. Not only is Williamson is a world-class prospect, but he seems like a really good fit with the pieces recently acquired in the Anthony Davis deal, namely Lonzo Ball & Brandon Ingram.
2. Memphis Grizzlies
Ja Morant, PG, Murray State
Trading Mike Conley to the Utah Jazz officially ushers in the Ja Morant era in Memphis. This has long been a team that needs a change of pace at the position, and there is a stark contrast between Morant and Conley. Morant is a much better athlete and an even better passer, although he'll need to add more muscle over the coming years.
3. New York Knicks
R.J. Barrett, G/F, Duke
The way the early lottery is trending, I would not be surprised if it is Darius Garland with pick three. However, in the end it makes sense for the Knicks to stick with Barrett, who has been rumored here since the lottery. He has proven he can be the go-to scorer this team covets, but he'll need to prove he can stroke it from three better.
4. New Orleans Pelicans
Darius Garland, PG, Vanderbilt
Late workouts and performances by Garland have him rising up boards late in the process, and I don't think he'll last outside the Top 5. Despite playing just five games in the collegiate ranks, Garland has garnered respect from NBA personnel because of his quickness and upside as a shooter. I think the Pelicans will end up trading this pick, but even if they don't Garland makes sense.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
Jarrett Culver, G, Texas Tech
Scouts have been quick to compare Jarrett Culver to Jimmy Butler, and you can see why. He is already a top-notch defender who can guard multiple positions, he is incredible versatile and he has a throwback, gritty offensive game. Cleveland could use that type of weapon on the wing, where they got very little production this past season.
6. Phoenix Suns
Coby White, PG, UNC
The Suns don't have a single true point guard on their roster that is a long-term solution. That's stunning for a franchise that has held high Draft pick year after year this decade. Phoenix will finally solve it by adding Coby White, who comes out of North Carolina. With this scoring ability, the Suns have one lethal backcourt, including Devin Booker.
7. Chicago Bulls
Cam Reddish, G/F, Duke
Even though Cam Reddish has been dropping down boards for some time now, he seems like he could fit in nicely at No. 7 to Chicago. He adds a valuable shooter with ideal size for a two-guard at the next level and with some nice pieces in place, he won't have to do too much right away. Pairing him with Zach LaVine could be very fun to watch.
8. Atlanta Hawks
DeAndre Hunter, F, Virginia
While Trae Young and John Collins offer a quality young core, neither are plus defenders at this point in their careers. Atlanta could certainly add at eight with DeAndre Hunter, who played in a terrific defensive system during his Virginia career. He also has impressive offensive upside, with a long, versatile frame to work with.
9. Washington Wizards
Jaxson Hayes, F/C, Texas
Its been years since Washington had a high impact big man and signing Dwight Howard to a one-year deal certainly didn't solve that problem in the nation's capitol. Jaxson Hayes is the big man with the most potential at this point in the Draft, as a rim runner that can block shots and finish anywhere around the rim. He could be a nice fit in an up-tempo offense if John Wall is ever able to recover from injury.
10. Atlanta Hawks
Sekou Doumbouya, F, France
With their second selection in the Top 10, Atlanta once again goes with a combo forward in France's Sekou Doumbouya. Doumbouya isn't as polished as a DeAndre Hunter might be, but the tools are there for him to be a beast. He plays both ends spectacularly well, has perfect NBA size, and major defensive upside.
11. Minnesota Timberwolves
Brandon Clarke, F/C, Gonzaga
This is an ideal situation for Minnesota, who is able to land a guy they're really high on in the late lottery. Even though he is a little bit small for a rim protector at the next level at 6'8", Clarke's instincts and athleticism make up for it. Plugging him in next to Karl Anthony Towns, who isn't much of a defender, is a win for the T-Wolves.
12. Charlotte Hornets
Nassir Little, F, UNC
No matter what happens with Kemba Walker's free agency, the Hornets could really use a talented young piece. Nassir Little wasn't able to get on the court as much as some had hoped with the Tar Heels, but he has the talent to be a lottery selection. He's fabulous around the rim and a great rebounder, but still has to work on his fundamentals.
13. Miami Heat
P.J. Washington, F, Kentucky
Washington's decision to return to Kentucky for his sophomore season really paid off. He flashed wildly improved shooting from three, a body with much more muscle and more polish top to bottom. He seems bound to land somewhere in the mid-first round, and the Heat could use a forward like him for the future.
14. Boston Celtics
Goga Bitadze, C, Republic of Georgia
Al Horford's decision to enter free agency might be a blessing in disguise for Boston. They will save a lot of money not investing in an aging big who seems to be slowly reaching the end of his career. The Celtics instead add a talented five from across the pond in Goga Bitadze, who hails from Georgia. He has a well-rounded offensive game that has impressed enough people to rise up the board.
15. Detroit Pistons
Romeo Langford, G, Indiana
Despite making the postseason this year, Detroit didn't get much production from their backcourt and will need to hit on pick 15 here. Even though his shot disappeared down the stretch while at Indiana, his craftiness and explosiveness will attract Detroit. The Pistons will be eager to keep the former Indiana Mr. Basketball inside the Midwest.
16. Orlando Magic
Keldon Johnson, G/F, Kentucky
The Magic have invested in the wing a lot more over the past few years, but they still need an impactful youngster on the perimeter. Johnson is one of the best two-way players in this Draft and he really is a jack-of-all trades that will be huge for a team like Orlando, who is right on the edge of postseason contention.
17. Atlanta Hawks
Tyler Herro, G, Kentucky
The Hawks may have two of the best young shooters in the NBA in Trae Young & Kevin Huerter, but why not add another with the 17th selection? Tyler Herro proved he could really stroke it in his one season in Lexington, and he impressed throughout the Draft process. He has a real chance to go in the lottery, or elsewhere in the mid-first.
18. Indiana Pacers
Bol Bol, F/C, Oregon
There remains few greater mysteries in this Draft than Bol Bol, who has rare talent but has long term question marks. He can really stroke it, and produced in his injury-shortened minutes with Oregon this year. However, can his frail frame hold up in the ultra-physical NBA? Indiana takes a chance in the late teens.
19. San Antonio Spurs
Bruno Fernando, F/C, Maryland
Despite playing on one of the youngest teams in the country at Maryland Bruno Fernando impressed NBA scouts with his mobility and potential in the low post. San Antonio could use some real youth in the frontcourt that could use a major facelift. Fernando has real upside as a rim-runner who could also become an impact defender.
20. Boston Celtics
Ty Jerome, PG, Virginia
Even though he may not have the upside of other point guards in this Draft, Ty Jerome still offers plenty of value at pick 20. He is a proven winner that has shown he can really stroke it from three, evidenced by his play in their National Title run. Boston looks to be losing both Terry Rozier and Kyrie Irving, opening the door for minutes for Jerome.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, G, Virginia Tech
I love the fit of Alexander-Walker in the Oklahoma City offense. He's a sharpshooting combo guard that could really work well next to Russell Westbrook and open up space. According to reports, OKC is shopping Andre Roberson, which means they would certainly be in the market for an impact player who is natural at shooting guard.
22. Boston Celtics
Rui Hachimura, F, Gonzaga
Rui Hachimura could go as high as Top 10 in this Draft or fall to the back-end of the first round. He is a high-scoring combo forward who has shown he can lead an offense. Yet, he is a little bit of an odd fit for the modern NBA, and he doesn't shoot the ball well. Even so, the Celtics are willing to take a chance on him with their third selection of the first round.
23. Memphis Grizzlies
Mfiondu Kabengele, F, Florida State
With the pick recently acquired in the Mike Conley deal, Memphis adds an impactful forward in Florida State's Mfiondu Kabengele. He projects favorably as a Zach Randolph type that does everything well and is an active piece around the rim. Randolph certainly had a great career with the Grizzlies, as will Kabengele.
24. Philadelphia Sixers
Matisse Thybulle, G/F, Washington
No matter what happens this summer with Jimmy Butler, Philadelphia could use another impact defender on the wing. As the lead defender in Washington's complex 2-3 zone, Matisse Thybulle proved himself as a lockdown player and real talent. He is one of my favorite players in this Draft and I see him as a steal at 24.
25. Portland Trail Blazers
Chuma Okeke, F, Auburn
If not for a torn ACL suffered in the postseason, Chuma Okeke would be in the mix to go lottery. He is a well-rounded forward that can defend multiple positions and block shots. He seems to have a really high floor, which is a plus this late in the first. Portland could use another talented forward to further strengthen a quality bench.
26. Cleveland Cavaliers
Kevin Porter, G/F, USC
A consensus five-star recruit, Kevin Porter had an up-and-down campaign in Southern California. He flashed eye-popping athleticism and real offensive potential, but he was also incredibly streaky and off-the-court problems resulted in a suspension. His potential is worth a flyer here, particularly for a team like the Cavs.
27. Brooklyn Nets
Eric Paschall, F, Villanova
A glue guy that won a lot of games at Villanova, Eric Paschall reminds me a lot of Draymond Green. Adding a player with that skill set would be important for a Brooklyn team set to enter a new era as a likely Kyrie Irving signing approaches.
28. Golden State Warriors
Dylan Windler, SF, Belmont
Crafty, sharpshooting wings are prospects Golden State adores and Dylan Windler fits that mold. Windler was a prolific scorer at Belmont and can space the floor while also attacking well on the dribble. It looks like the Warriors will be without Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson next season no matter what happens in free agency, making this pick even more crucial.
29. San Antonio Spurs
Luka Samanic, F, Croatia
International guys with versatility and good feel for the game always have a home in a place like San Antonio, and the Spurs invest their second first-rounder in Croatian big Luka Samanic. Samanic has a well-rounded game and can be moved around a lot as a big. That will be really important in a Spurs offense that should be more athletic next year.
30. Milwaukee Bucks
Nicolas Claxton, F/C, Georgia
Brook Lopez was very important for Milwaukee in their Eastern Conference Finals run but probably isn't the long term at the five. Milwaukee could land a big man with a similar skill set in Georgia's Nicolas Claxton, who played really well under new Bulldogs head coach Tom Crean. Claxton isn't the shooter Lopez is but he is a really good passer and very active center.

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

NBA Draft 2019: Top 40 Big Board

DeAndre Hunter, No. 7
1. Zion Williamson, F
Strengths: Elite-level athleticism, impact defender, finishing ability, world-class potential
Weaknesses: Shooting from three, fit in NBA offense
Ceiling: NBA Superstar
Bust Potential: Low
Widely viewed by fans and NBA personnel alike as the best player in this Draft, Zion Williamson is the clear No. 1 here. At 6'7", 285 pounds, Williamson is built more like a tight end than a basketball player, and offers insane athleticism. He still has to answer questions as a shooter and finding floor spacers to surround him with will be key, but all the tools are there for Zion to be a superstar at this level.
2. R.J. Barrett, F
Strengths: Versatile offensive player, dominant isolation scorer, quality rebounder
Weaknesses: Streaky shooter, prone to turnovers
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Moderate
Although he was overshadowed in his one season in Durham by Zion, R.J. Barrett is still an attractive NBA prospect. Barrett already has elite offensive tools, as a dangerous isolation scorer and solid shooter, although he didn't shoot as well as hoped in college (31% from three-point). If he lands in the right spot Barrett projects very favorably as a top option in a variety of NBA offensive sets.
3. Ja Morant, PG
Strengths: Top-flight court vision, superb athleticism, defensive upside
Weaknesses: Questionable shooting mechanics, thin frame by pro standards
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Low
Ja Morant broke on to the scene this past season with a huge sophomore season at Murray State, including a dominant showing in an upset over Marquette during March Madness. He seems nearly destined to go second overall to Memphis, who desperately needs a young, talented point guard. It seems like a great fit for Morant, who has excellent passing ability and court vision. He is ready to become a leader at the next level, but he'll need to improve his shooting.
4. Jarrett Culver, G/F, Texas Tech
Strengths: Shutdown defender, versatility, active around on the rim
Weaknesses: Questionable three-point shot, doesn't possess elite athleticism
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Low
The leading man on the National Runner-Up Texas Tech Red Raiders, Jarrett Culver isn't quite at the level of the top three prospects in this Draft, but instead leads the next tier. The most attractive thing about Culver is his versatility; he can play and defend multiple positions, which is so crucial in today's NBA. That defense is also a big seller for NBA teams, as he projects favorably as a three-and-D player that aren't easy to find cheap across the league today. He isn't as flashy as a Zion or Morant, but seems a little bit more well-rounded.
5. Brandon Clarke, F/C, Gonzaga
Strengths: Shot-blocking, touch around the rim, efficiency
Weaknesses: Undersized for an NBA big, short wingspan
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Low
I've long had a fondness for the type of bigs Mark Few produces out at Gonzaga, and Brandon Clarke is the best true big in this Draft in my opinion. He's an extremely active big that averaged over three blocks per game this past season for the Bulldogs. Clarke is not yet elite offensively, but his athleticism and finishing ability down low are a good starting point to work from. The only concern I have with Clarke is what came out at the Combine: a small 6'8" wingspan that matches his 6'8" height. It's incredibly small for a rim protector in the NBA, but his instincts and athleticism seem to make up for it.
6. Coby White, PG, UNC
Strengths: Fabulous ball-handler, explosive offensive scorer, solid defender
Weaknesses: Still streaky as a shooter, prone to mistakes
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Low
There are some that think Coby White is going to drop a little bit this upcoming Thursday with increased love for Darius Garland, but I think that would be crazy. White looks like a really strong point guard prospect who was dominant at times this past season for the Tar Heels. He shot the ball really well from three-point and well his turnovers need to be cut down, they aren't bad for a teenager running the offense in the ACC. He also has serious upside, with ample room to grow over the next few years.
7. DeAndre Hunter, F, Virginia
Strengths: Long frame, terrific defender, can score nearly anywhere on the court
Weaknesses: Needs to bulk up, not yet a shot creator
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Low
While guards Ty Jerome & Kyle Guy were the guiding forces behind Virginia's redemptive National Title run, DeAndre Hunter has long been the best NBA prospect in Charlottesville. Scouts absolutely love his body: a 6'7" forward with a lengthy wingspan and big hands. He also is a pretty polished player top to bottom who can score in a variety of different ways. Hunter needs to add more muscle and needs to become more aggressive offensively, but his floor is still pretty high in the mid-lottery.
8. Darius Garland, PG, Vanderbilt
Strengths: Strong shooter, moves incredibly well without the ball, agile offensive player
Weaknesses: A little bit undersized, injury concerns
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Moderate
There isn't a more intriguing boom-or-bust in the lottery this year than Vanderbilt's Darius Garland. Garland was a consensus five-star recruit before a knee injury ended his Vandy career after just five games. That leaves him without much tape to impress scouts, but NBA teams are still falling in love with his quickness as a PG and his ability to move around and make things happen in any offense. With that being said, I still have major concerns about a guy whose only collegiate experience was a little bit underwhelming (averaged more turnovers than assists).
9. Sekou Doumbouya, F, France
Strengths: Two-way forward, good size & wingspan, oozing with upside
Weaknesses: Still very raw, played against weaker competition in Europe
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Moderate
He isn't getting a ton of attention beyond hardcore NBA Draft fans, but Sekou Doumbouya should warrant some buzz. The 6'9" French big plays both ends of the court extremely hard and well, and is exceptional at crashing boards at either end. He can score differently offensively but the real potential is on defense, where he has all the tools to be something special. He'll need to land in the right situation given how raw he still is (didn't play basketball until he was 12) but this guy has the chance to be the real steal at the back-end of the lottery.
10. Cam Reddish, G/F, Duke
Strengths: Quality shooter, ideal size for the modern NBA, good athlete
Weaknesses: Takes a backseat offensively, doesn't play as big as he is
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Moderate
Cam Reddish has been picked apart like few other players in this Draft, resulting in some mixed feelings from NBA personnel. He came into Duke with plenty of fanfare as a No. 1 pick possibility, but struggled to make any impact behind Zion & Barrett. With that being said, his size (6'8", 7'1" wingspan) is ideal for a two-guard in the current NBA, and he has proven he can stroke it from three. With that being said, he still played down to smaller defenders at times, not going up strong or shying away from contact. That won't work at all in the Association.
11. Keldon Johnson, G/F, Kentucky
Strengths: Stud two-way player, solid shooter, impressive versatility
Weaknesses: Still streaky offensively, needs to improve around the rim
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Low
12. Matisse Thybulle, G/F, Washington
Strengths: Best defender in this Draft, versatility, offensive upside
Weaknesses: Shooting from three, ceiling lower than others near the lottery range
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Low
13. Jaxon Hayes, F/C, Texas
Strengths: Ideal rim-running big in the mold of Jarrett Allen, quality defender, good athlete
Weaknesses: Very unrefined in some parts of his game, needs the right coaching
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: Moderate
14. Bol Bol, F/C, Oregon
Strengths: Rare offensive talent, can really stroke it from downtown, incredibly long frame
Weaknesses: Serious injury questions in the long-term, fit in NBA offense
Ceiling: NBA All-Star
Bust Potential: High
15. Mfiondu Kabengele, F/C, Florida State
Strengths: Size and body NBA teams love, incredibly efficient, a force on the glass
Weaknesses: Can't really shoot the ball, not a great athlete
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Low
16. Rui Hachimura, F, Gonzaga
Strengths: Fabulous at attacking the rim and finishing, good athlete, has improved wildly in college
Weaknesses: Suspect shooter at times, undersized for NBA forward
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Low
17. Naasir Little, F, UNC
Strengths: Big build, rebounding force in the low post, serious offensive potential
Weaknesses: Didn't produce much at UNC, still very limited as an offensive big
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
18. Louis King, F, Oregon
Strengths: Superb athlete, scary offensive weapon in transition, possesses tools to be a reliable shooter
Weaknesses: Immature at this point, wildly inconsistent
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bruno Fernando, No. 19
Bust Potential: Moderate
19. Bruno Fernando, F/C, Maryland
Strengths: Showed impressive versatility with Maryland, well-built, great lob finisher
Weaknesses: Needs to improve as a post defender, still very raw
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
20. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, G, Virginia Tech
Strengths: Perhaps the best pure shooter in this Draft, incredibly quick release, good size
Weaknesses: Limited potential, needs to bulk up
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
21. Tyler Herro, G, Kentucky
Strengths: Fabulous shooter, good size and build, strong passer for a two-guard
Weaknesses: Average defender, can be incredibly streaky
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
22. Luka Samanic, F, Croatia
Strengths: Well-rounded offensively, can play either forward spot, potential as a shooter
Weaknesses: Limited upside, needs to become better conditioned
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Moderate
23. P.J. Washington, F, Kentucky
Strengths: Well-rounded offensively, good athlete, strong rebounder
Weaknesses: Does not shoot the ball well, weird fit in modern NBA, a bit undersized
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
24. Kevin Porter Jr., G/F, USC
Strengths: Jaw-dropping athlete, can play multiple positions, serious offensive upside
Weaknesses: Questionable work ethic, off-the-court questions
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: High
25. Ty Jerome, G, Virginia
Strengths: Lights-out shooter, great leader, well-rounded player
Weaknesses: Low ceiling, not a great athlete, older than most in this Draft
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
26. Nicolas Claxton, F/C, Georgia
Strengths: Very mobile big, excellent passer, strong offensive player
Weaknesses: Needs to refine jumper, establish a more well-rounded post game
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
27. Romeo Langford, G, Indiana
Strengths: Quick, deceptive ball-handler, combo guard with versatility
Weaknesses: Streaky as a shooter, questionable leader
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: Moderate
28. Carsen Edwards, G, Purdue
Strengths: High-volume scorer, great shooter, experience as No. 1 scoring option
Weaknesses: Undersized, forces shots and plays too often
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
29. Goga Bitadze, C, Republic of Georgia
Strengths: Ideal size for a five, elite rebounder, defensive upside
Weaknesses: Incredibly raw, very limited as a post player
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Moderate
30. Dylan Windler, G/F, Belmont
Strengths: Crafty offensive player, good shooter, moves incredibly well without the ball
Weaknesses: Low ceiling, not a superb athlete
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
31. Naz Reid, F/C, LSU
Strengths: Huge, bulky frame, physical offensive player, handles the ball very well for his size
Weaknesses: Consistency, emotional player that can sometimes be a problem
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Moderate
32. Grant Williams, F, Tennessee
Strengths: Polished offensive player, versatile, great leader
Weaknesses: Tweener, undersized, low ceiling
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
33. Chuma Okeke, F, Auburn
Strengths: Fabulous defender, really good shooter for his size, high basketball IQ
Weaknesses: Coming off a torn ACL, fit in an NBA offense
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Moderate
34. Talen Horton-Tucker, G/F, Iowa State
Strengths: Talented offensive playmaker, eye-popping 7'1" wingspan, 
Weaknesses: Not very quick or incredibly athletic, very streaky player
Ceiling: NBA Role-Player
Bust Potential: Moderate
35. Tacko Fall, C, UCF
Strengths: 7'6" with long arms, fabulous touch around the hoop
Weaknesses: Not very mobile, prone to foul trouble, long-term injury questions
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: High
36. K.Z. Okpala, F, Stanford
Strengths: Ideal size for his position (6'8"), very good shooter
Weaknesses: Needs to improve on defense, takes plays off at times
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
37. Lugentz Dort, G, Arizona State
Strengths: Physical offensive player that loves contact, superb athlete
Weaknesses: Very streaky offensively, funky shooting mechanics
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
38. Darius Bazley, F, USA
Strengths: Long frame, 8'11" standing reach, can play multiple positions
Weaknesses: No experience playing ball beyond high school, needs to bulk up
Ceiling: NBA Starter
Bust Potential: High
39. Cam Johnson, G, UNC
Strengths: Deadeye shooter, great size, proven experience
Weaknesses: Limited potential, needs to improve defensively
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low
40. Eric Paschall, F, Villanova
Strengths: Glue guy that does the little things so well, proven winner, versatile player
Weaknesses: Not very quick or athletic, very old compared to others in this Draft (23 in November)
Ceiling: NBA Role Player
Bust Potential: Low

Thursday, June 13, 2019

College Football Preview 2019: 22. Wisconsin Badgers

22. Wisconsin Badgers

The return of star RB Jonathan Taylor ensures a redemptive fall in Madison


A.J. Taylor
Offense: Finding consistency and stability at the quarterback position proved once more to be elusive for the Badgers in 2018. Veteran Alex Hornibrook was never able to take the next step and dealt with injuries, leading to an underwhelming 13 TD to 11 INT ratio. Backup Jack Coan wasn't great in relief, posting mediocre numbers across the board. Hornibrook chose to transfer to Florida State over the off-season, ensuring a new signal-caller will take the reigns of the offense.

Wisconsin is hopeful newcomer Graham Mertz is a much-needed breath of fresh air. Mertz has drawn rave reviews as the top pro-style QB in this recruiting class, coming over Mission, Kansas. He is dripping with potential and enrolled early to get a chance to start, but Paul Chryst may be hesitant to roll with the youngster from the get-go. It wouldn't be shocking to see Coan begin the year, with Mertz finding his way onto the field eventually.

No matter what happens at QB, the Badgers will once again run the ball early and often particularly with the return of Heisman favorite Jonathan Taylor. Taylor ran for 2,194 yards and 16 TD with a superb 7.1 yards per carry. Those are impressive numbers no matter the situation but it becomes more impressive considering everybody in the stadium knew he was going to get the ball. Defenses will once again scheme against Taylor in 2019, but that shouldn't slow down the junior. Fellow junior Garrett Groshek obviously isn't the rushing threat Taylor is, but will be a nice change-of-pace who added 425 yards a year ago.

The Badgers really lacked a top receiving option in 2018 but the good news is that nearly every important wide out is back this fall. That will bode extremely well for an offense that has to establish some type of passing attack if they want to contend for a Big Ten West Title. Senior A.J. Taylor is probably the most versatile weapon the Badgers have as a wide out, possible running back and a possible returner. He led all receivers with 521 yards and is lethal when he gets in open space. Danny Davis and tight end Jake Ferguson will also be crucial components of this offense. Davis had five receiving touchdowns last season while Ferguson had 456 yards as just a freshman. Sophomore Kendric Pryor is also returning, giving this group depth and upside.

There will a rebuilding job on the offensive line, where four starters depart from a veteran-laden group in 2018. Yet, at a place like Wisconsin, that reloads at the position group as well as anybody, that doesn't seem especially problematic. Junior center Tyler Biadasz decided not to go pro, giving the group an anchor right in the middle. Left tackle Cole Van Lanen has been drawing rave reviews from the coaching staff and should be able to step up, as will right tackle Tyler Beach.

Questions continue to linger at Wisconsin's "kryptonite" position: quarterback. Despite this, the overall makeup of the offense is pretty promising. Taylor is without any question a superstar and plenty of talent returns on the outside and up front. How quickly Mertz is able to see the field may make the difference between a solid group and an elite unit.

Defense: The big reason for Wisconsin's drop-off actually was not the quarterback woes, but a defense that took a step back last season. The Badgers fell off to fifth in the Big Ten in scoring defense (34th in the country), fifth in rush defense (54th) and fourth in total defense (29th). Those aren't terrible numbers, but they are a far cry from what the group accomplished in 2018. This group may be need some further retooling, but D-coordinator Jim Leonhard has a group with the talent to return to its old form.

The rush defense was definitely suspect for much of 2018, evidenced by a poor showing in a shocking loss to BYU early in the year. That could change, but some guys are really going to have to take big leap. Junior end Isaiahh Loudermilk and sophomore end Matt Henningsen are good stepping stones to work from. Both are solid in run support, but must become better overall pass rushers. Sophomore Bryson Williams is the favorite to start at nose tackle, a spot that is ever-crucial in this Wisconsin defense.

T.J. Edwards and Ryan Connelly are both gone, leaving behind vacant inside linebacker spots. The pair were terrific and masked other deficiencies in this Wisconsin defense with their range and finishing ability. Edwards packed a stat-line of 112 tackles, 11.5 TFL and three interceptions on the year. Add in the loss of Andrew Van Ginkel, who was a terrific pass rusher off the edge, with 5.5 sacks, and the Badgers have some worries at linebacker.

Despite those concerns, bringing back senior Zack Baun was huge for UW. Set to start at one outside linebacker spot, Baun led Wisconsin with eight QB hurries last season and was also third on the team in tackles (63). He will have to play an even larger role with so much new faces in the unit. Senior Chris Orr also has starting experience and should play on the inside. He is likely to be joined by Jack Sanborn who seems ready to breakout. The gem of the Badgers' recruiting class last season, Sanborn will finally show his talent with more snaps under his belt.

Concerns about the linebacker corps can be offset by a very strong secondary that returns every big name minus D'Cota Dixon. Somewhat of a question last fall, the cornerback position should be a real strength, as sophomores Faion Hicks & Rachad Wildgoose return. Neither are complete shutdown CB's right now, but they are rock-solid who work well in Leonhard's defensive look. Sophomore Scott Nelson returns to man the free safety position. Nelson showed a lot of promise last fall and can make plays sideline to sideline, which he'll have to do more this upcoming season.

Wisconsin went from allowing 4.4 yards per play to 5.5, a drop from third in the nation to 51st. That's incredibly startling and losing key veterans doesn't help, but I expect a bounce-back year. There is talent waiting in the wings and enough experience to solve the problem.

Special Teams: A new placekicker must be found after Rafael Gaglianone graduated, following a 2018 where he was 10-17 on field goals. That was actually really good when compared to Wisconsin's punting problems, as they rated last in the Big Ten in net average. Senior Anthony Lotti has to be better in '19.

Bottom Line: The Badgers made me eat a lot of crow this past fall, as my preseason Playoff pick stumbled early and never recovered. However, the disappointing 7-5 season was capped off with a dominant bowl showing against Miami, laying the momentum for a redemptive 2019. Having a star running back operating behind a skilled O-Line is a tried and true method of moving the ball, while the Badgers gave all the tools to reload defensively. Yet, you still have to hesitate when placing this team back in the Big Ten West driving seat or back in serious Playoff consideration. The aerial attack has a ton of potential but is still so poor, while the schedule includes not only the difficult West Division but crossover meetings with three East powers (Michigan, Michigan State, @ Ohio State). I like Wisconsin to return to double-digit win areas and a quality bowl, but anything beyond that is too much at this point.

Team Projections
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten)
Offensive MVP: RB Jonathan Taylor
Defensive MVP: LB Zack Baun
Breakout Player of the Year: LB Jack Sanborn
Impact Freshman: QB Graham Mertz

Five-Year Trend
2014: 11-3 (7-1 Big Ten)
2015: 10-3 (6-2 Big Ten)
2016: 11-3 (7-2 Big Ten)
2017: 13-1 (9-0 Big Ten)
2018: 8-5 (5-4 Big Ten)





Sunday, June 9, 2019

College Football Preview 2019: 23. Virginia Cavaliers

23. Virginia Cavaliers

A budding star at QB and a superb defense place Virginia as the favorites in the ACC Coastal


Bryce Perkins, Virginia
Offense: The Cavaliers' offense was mediocre at best in 2018, ranking 10th in the ACC in scoring offense and total yardage. They will miss 1,000-yard rusher Jordan Ellis as well as All-ACC wide out Olamide Zaccheaus, but their is still enough left in the cupboard for Virginia's offense to actually improve in 2019.

Senior Bryce Perkins returns to Charlottesville after notching nearly 3,500 yards of total offense and scoring 34 total TD's. A former Arizona State transfer, Perkins adjusted quickly to the UVA offense and the numbers speak for themselves. He adds a dynamic playmaker that the Cavaliers just simply haven't had at the position in years past. It isn't unreasonable to think Perkins can have an even bigger year with more comfortability in the Bronco Mendenhall offense. He could be a legitimate Heisman dark horse if the dominoes fall right.

Jordan Ellis is a tough player to replace and outside of Perkins, UVA's top returning rusher is junior P.K. Kier, who had just 80 yards a year ago. Kier is the favorite to become the new feature back, but he will face some heavy resistance. Sophomore Wayne Taulapapa could really push him, particularly after a strong spring. At just 5'9", Taulapapa is a burner whose only real action has been on special teams since the start of his UVA career. Freshmen Seneca Milledge and Mike Hollins could also push for carries.

Zaccheaus was Perkins' security blanket last fall, catching 93 passes and going over 1,000 yards. The Cavaliers do still have talent returning behind Zaccheaus, namely Hasise Dubois & Joe Reed. Dubois had 578 yards a year ago and is very reliable, while Reed is more of a downfield threat, with 18.6 yards per catch. Sophomore Tavares Kelly could be a possible breakout candidate with serious playmaking potential. He had 142 total yards in very little usage. The tight end position will have to be retooled, with senior Tanner Cowley likely to slide into the starting role.

Virginia's offensive front was very inconsistent a season ago and they had an interesting off-season. Three important contributors are gone, with veterans Marcus Applefield & Jake Fieler graduating and R.J. Proctor transferring. Juniors Dillon Reinkensmeyer and Chris Glaser are going to be looked at as the anchors of the unit, likely to start at both guard positions. Depth is really a concern with this group, with youngsters looking like they'll have to step up and play meaningful snaps.

This could definitely be an intriguing year for offensive coordinator Robert Anae and the Cavaliers' offense. While there are certainly question marks, they have one of the ACC's best quarterbacks and a receiver corps with serious upside. The running game was how UVA moved the ball the best in 2018, but more pressure will be on Perkins to pick up the slack through the air with Ellis now departed.

Defense: Bronco Mendenhall has long been known as a defensive guy, and his influence was seen with the Cavaliers' Top 20 group last fall. Virginia was especially stingy defending the pass, allowing 183 YPG, which was 16th in the country. Enough returns for the defense to once again be one of best in the entire land.

They'll run a 3-4 look that leans more heavily on their linebackers up front. That could be good for a Virginia squad that has a pretty thin D-Line. Veteran Eli Hanback is returning, as the mainstay in the middle will be crucial to their rush defense. However, both end spots are up for competition at the moment, with guys like senior Richard Burney and junior Mandy Alonso the early favorites.

This group of linebackers may be the greatest strength of the Cavs, no matter the side of the ball. They are strong on the inside, with senior Jordan Mack and junior Robert Snyder, as while as on the outside where junior Charles Snowden takes charge. Mack is UVA's top returning tackler with 66 in 2018, and he should have a big final year in Charlottesville. Snowden is one of the top playmakers on the defense, putting together a stat-line of 62 tackles, two interceptions and eight pass deflections. However, it isn't unreasonable to think he might end up being overshadowed by the likely starter at the opposite OLB spot, sophomore Noah Taylor. Taylor wasn't used a ton beyond special teams as a freshman, but he had a tremendous spring and the coaching staff believes he is ready for a huge season.

Senior cornerback Bryce Hall has already established himself as one of the premier defensive backs in the country and should be a high NFL Draft selection next spring. The physical defender is incredibly rangy, a superb athlete and is very flexible. He had a whopping 21 passes defended last year, almost ensuring teams will try and throw away from him at all times. That may put more pressure on junior Darrius Bratton, expected to take up a starting gig with Tim Harris now gone.

Even without safety Juan Thornhill, one of the leaders of the entire defense, UVA has to feel good about the safety positions heading into '19. Joey Blount technically is not a returning starter but was third on the team in tackles last year, with 63. He'll be joined by another junior in Brenton Nelson, who had 41 tackles and eight passes defended himself. Keep an eye on junior De'Vante Cross, who made the switch from receiver to defensive back and could surprise some people.

Co-defensive coordinators Nick Howell & Kelly Poppinga are going to enjoy themselves with this group of defenders. They have a lot of versatility to work with and the return of every important linebacker should ensure the rush defense takes a step forward (47th in NCAA in '18). It certainly looks like a unit that could assert itself as the best in the ACC, particularly with Clemson rebuilding on that side of the ball.

Special Teams: Brian Delaney took over placekicking duties early last season and hit 12 of 16 field goals. He is back to once again handle the ever-important job. No punter has stepped up to fill the void left by Lester Coleman (41.8 yards per punt) but the return game has potential.

Bottom Line: 2018 was the best Virginia season in a decade, with the Cavaliers winning their most games since 2011 and hanging in the Coastal Division Title chase. The thing is, it may just be the beginning for Mendenhall and this UVA team, who will have significantly raised expectations this fall. Perkins is the real deal at quarterback and should keep the offense humming, even with some notable absences. And then there is the defense, which has an argument to be one of the Top 10-15 units in the entire land. Add in a schedule that gets their last three games at home, including hated rival Virginia Tech, and there is no wonder why UVA looks like the Coastal favorite. Even if that is too lofty, this team certainly looks ready to beat Tech, who holds a decade-and-a-half winning streak over them. 

Team Projections
Projected Record: 9-4 (6-2 ACC, Loss in Championship Game)
Offensive MVP: QB Bryce Perkins
Defensive MVP: CB Bryce Hall
Breakout Player of the Year: RB Wayne Taulapapa
Impact Freshman: Jeffrey M'ba, DT

Five-Year Trend
2014: 5-7 (3-5 ACC)
2015: 4-8 (3-5 ACC)
2016: 2-10 (1-7 ACC)
2017: 6-7 (3-5 ACC)
2018: 8-5 (4-4 ACC)

Thursday, June 6, 2019

College Football Preview 2019: 24. Miami Hurricanes

24. Miami Hurricanes

A suffocating defense and improved QB play will usher in a new day in Coral Gables

N'Kosi Perry, Miami
Offense: Dan Enos arrives as offensive coordinator after a stint guiding Tua Tagovailoa as Alabama's quarterbacks coach. He'll be tasked with improving an offense that was 13th in the conference in total yardage.

Now-departed Mark Richt could not find a quarterback to lead his offense in 2018. Veteran Malik Rosier really struggled and redshirt freshman N'Kosi Perry wasn't ready, forcing the offense to sputter. The Hurricanes are hopeful the QB situation has finally been solved in the form of Ohio State transfer Tate Martell. Martell was a prolific high-school recruit out of Las Vegas but was forced out when Justin Fields opted to head to Columbus. He has serious dual threat potential and will add a much needed playmaker at the position. Martell will still have to fend off the returning Perry and youngster Jarren Williams, who has serious upside.

The expectation around the program is junior DeeJay Dallas will take over feature back duties full-time. Dallas used a punishing role of rushing to gain 617 yards and six touchdowns, despite being second on the depth chart. However, don't be surprised if sophomore Lorenzo Lingard is the one making the big jump in 2019. Lingard came into Miami with plenty of fanfare and showed flashes despite being buried on the depth chart. He has a lot more speed in the open field than Dallas and could be the team of versatile running back Enos covets. 

Ahmmon Richards was well on his way to being special returning from injury prior to 2018 but suffered a career-ending neck injury within the first month. Richards is a huge loss for this Miami offense, as a guy who earned Freshman All-American honors in 2016. The Hurricanes were never able to find a No. 1 to consistently replace Richards' production.

The hope is that Buffalo transfer K.J. Osborn can fulfill the role of top target. Osborn caught 53 balls for 892 yards a year ago and has the size and catch radius to make all types of plays. He'll benefit from the return of Jeff Thomas, as the downfield threat should open up things for Osborn. Thomas contemplated a transfer following the departure of Richt, but instead will play a pivotal role in the Hurricane 2019 offense. Talented freshman Jeremiah Payton was the gem of the 2019 recruiting class and comes from Neptune Beach, FL with big-time potential. Junior Mike Harley is another player to watch in the receiving corps.

Tight end Brevin Jordan was an impressive freshman in 2018, adding 287 yards and four touchdowns. He was used extensively in all types of situations and the new coaching staff is hopeful he can get even better his sophomore year. He has legitimate All-American talent.

The O-Line is probably the biggest question mark on the offense, even more than quarterback. The 'Canes lose three starters, including their two most experienced, Tyree St. Louis & Tyler Gauthier. Junior guard Navaughn Donaldson is going to have to be a leader of the group, although neither tackle spot is a strength right now. 

It was a pretty disastrous season for this group last fall, but a new makeover will be very beneficial. The Hurricanes have crucial new additions at nearly every level and the QB situation couldn't get much worse. Enos will ensure the group improves, but the line will determine just how much.

Defense: For the last two seasons Miami's defense has carried them, playing at a hectic, chaotic pace under coordinator Manny Diaz. Diaz is now the head coach, and the continuity he kept on the defensive side of the ball will ensure the unit is just as strong in '19.

The defensive front is going to require a little bit of a retooling with Gerald Willis III absent at the heart of it. Willis logged 18 tackles for loss over the course of the year and was constantly in opposing backfields. Senior Pat Bethel is a nice returnee at one D-tackle spot but he isn't the pass rusher Willis was.

Jonathan Garvin will have to play an even larger role after he had 17 TFL and a fumble return score. Playing off the edge, Garvin is a naturally more fluid athlete than Willis, although teams will be able to focus on him more this fall. Virginia Tech transfer Trevon Hill has the chance to play big snaps at either end or tackle. He played well for the Hokies, but a change of scenery could help him out even more.

It's rare we see any position group last together for multiple seasons, particularly in modern college football. However, Miami's core of linebackers has been playing together since they were freshmen and they were a major reason Miami had the fourth best defense in the country in 2018. Shaquille Quarterman is probably the most recognized of the trio, placing second on the team in tackles with 82 last year. He is a sideline-to-sideline playmaker at the ultra-important middle linebacker for this team. Fellow seniors Michael Pinckney and Zach McCloud are also returning for their final years. McCloud will play the ever-important striker linebacker position, a hybrid nickel-linebacker. 

Miami got big news in late February when they added Jaelen Phillips, yet another transfer from a Power Five school. Phillips was the No. 1 recruit in the country by some scouting services a few years ago but decided to leave from UCLA. He is pending an appeal to play right away in 2019, but it is unclear whether he'll be able to suit up. If he does, the Hurricanes add yet another formidable pass rusher who will be a huge help.

The secondary was also a strength for the 'Canes last fall, rated as the top pass defense in the country and finishing 16th in interceptions. They'll see three impact defenders leave the unit, forcing a scramble for youngsters to step up. Luckily, junior cornerback Trajan Bandy remains to lock in the No. 1 CB slot. Bandy was tied for the team lead in INTs and remains a suffocating, playmaking defensive back. Both safety spots look to be breaking in new starters, but the Hurricanes are hopeful they can learn quickly. Yet another transfer, Bubba Bolden, looks like a favorite to start as a former blue-chip prospect you could never see the field while at USC.

One of the major reasons for Miami's success the last few years has been a defense that is aggressive and able to force and create turnovers. They ranked tops in the country in havoc rate (combined tackles for loss, pass deflections and forced fumbles, divided by total plays) and their rangy secondary had the top pass defense in the entire country. Despite some losses, this group of linebackers and the potential of the secondary is extremely reassuring. This once again has the looks of a Top 10 unit nationally.

Special Teams: Sophomore Bubba Baxa is back to handle placekicking duties after a solid 2018 campaign. Baxa notched 9 of 12 on field goals, but must become more consistent, particularly for an offense breaking in many new faces. The return game has serious potential, with Jeff Thomas back to handle kick return duties.

Bottom Line: A hectic end to 2018 and a weird off-season should give way to a more calming fall in 2019 for the Hurricanes. New head man Manny Diaz provides some continuity after being promoted from defensive coordinator, and a number of veteran leaders remain. Diaz took an interesting approach to filling the holes on this roster, relying heavily on the transfer portal to add a new top signal-caller, top wide out, a number of pass rushers and a number of defensive backs. It is an interesting and bold strategy, but one that could pay huge dividends if it works. Either way, Miami will benefit from a defense that should once again be top-notch and some more stability offensively. Considering they'll once again square off against the ACC Coastal, the weaker division in the conference, the opportunity is there for Miami to return to just their second ACC Championship Game.

Team Projections
Projected Record: 9-3 (6-2 ACC)
Offensive MVP: WR K.J. Osborn
Defensive MVP: LB Shaquille Quarterman
Breakout Player of the Year: RB Lorenzo Lingard
Impact Freshman: WR Jeremiah Payton

Five-Year Trend
2014: 6-7 (3-5 ACC)
2015: 8-5 (5-3 ACC)
2016: 9-4 (5-3 ACC)
2017: 10-3 (7-1 ACC)
2018: 7-6 (4-4 ACC)

Monday, June 3, 2019

College Football Preview 2019: 25. Oklahoma State Cowboys

25. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Loaded with offensive talent, Cowboys look like biggest challengers to an OU-Texas Big 12 Championship Game

Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State
Offense: Offense has long ruled the day for Oklahoma State under Mike Gundy and that was certainly the case a year ago, as the Cowboys were 13th in the country in scoring and averaged nearly 500 yards per game. Despite the graduation of Taylor Cornelius at quarterback, this unit looks like it could just be just as strong, maybe even better in some ways.

Who will be the next signal-caller to take command of the offense? It looks like essentially a two-man race between former Hawaii transfer Dru Brown and redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders. Brown is already pretty accomplished, starting two seasons for the Rainbow Warriors and recording 5,273 passing yards, sixth on their all-time list. With that being said, most around the program believe it is only a matter of time before Sanders takes control. The former four-star recruit is an ideal fit for this type of offense, with a huge arm and terrific mobility. He had a strong spring, and could be a major breakout candidate if he is able to fend off the grad transfer.

Breaking in a new feature back will also be of top priority for Oklahoma State but much like the QB spot, they have real upside waiting in the wings. Redshirt sophomore Chuba Hubbard filled in for the now-departed Justice Hill last year due to injury and really impressed. He finished the year with 740 yards and nine touchdowns, the most for any Cowboy freshman in the Mike Gundy era. With the dangerous passing attack always opening up holes, Hubbard can really cause chaos on an outstretched defense. He seems like another guy ready to fully burst on to the scene in a big way.

On the outside, Oklahoma State is equipped with their latest in a long line of wide receiver stars. Junior Tylan Wallace was a Biletnikoff Award finalist in 2018 after catching 86 passes for 1,491 yards and 12 scores. He doesn't have the size of former OSU studs Justin Blackmon and Dez Bryant, but is quicker and more dangerous with space. It will be a thrilling season in Stillwater if him and Sanders are able to connect as the coaching staff believes they will. Joining Wallace will be fellow junior Dillon Stoner, as well as tight end Jelani Woods. Stoner is a quality No. 2 behind Wallace (48 receptions, 603 yards in '18) who has more size, while Woods seems like he is primed for a huge season. He had two touchdowns last year, but will continue to prove himself as a red zone target.

With all the talent the Cowboys have at the skill positions, their O-Line consistently gets ignored but it should be a strength in 2019. New line coach Charles Dickey has three returning starters to work with, anchored by seniors Marcus Keyes & Johnny Wilson. The big concern will be at left tackle, where junior Dylan Galloway is the favorite to start but is rather inexperienced.

New offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson will take over play-calling duties after former OC Mike Yurcich left for Ohio State. Gleeson is well-regarded around the country as an innovative and creative offensive mind, whose previous stop was Princeton. He'll have fun with this current Oklahoma State offense, which has playmakers at every level.

Defense: The year-in, year-out question for Gundy and the Cowboys is the defense and whether it can do enough to win games. It was a group that struggled in 2018, allowing 267.1 yards per game through the air (118th nationally) and nearly 33 points per game (97th). The good news is that there is a bunch returning in the secondary, opening the door for a redemption year.

The secondary is led by cornerback A.J. Green, a veteran leader entering his final season in Stillwater. Green had 11 pass deflections in 2019 and did a superb job regularly covering opposing team's No. 1 guys. He'll need to have a big year if the pass defense is going to take any steps forward. Fellow corner Rodarius Williams is also a returning starter, although he struggled with consistency last season. Despite this, he did lead the team in INT's and is one of the unit's top playmakers. At safety, OSU is hopeful junior Malcolm Rodriguez can replicate his production from last campaign, as he is their leading returning tackler with 83.

Up front, Gundy and coordinator Jim Knowles will look for some new pieces to step up from an inexperienced group of characters. Defensive end Jordan Brailford is a lot bigger loss than some might realize, as he was a constant disruptor with 16 TFL in '18.

Senior end Mike Scott looks to be one of the favorites to step up, as he has spent most of his career with the Cowboys in a rotational role. Yet, it is a pair of transfers that most around the program are excited about, in Kyle Junior & Israel Antwine. Antwine started 11 games as a freshman for Colorado and has big-time talent, while Junior comes over from Bowling Green as a graduate transfer. They'll have to adjust to Big 12 football quickly in such a thin group.

Oklahoma State must also find a way to replace linebacker Justin Phillips, who led the team in tackles as the heart of the defense. In a 4-2-5 defensive set, the Cowboys rely on their 'backers to do a lot of different things, including coverage. Senior Calvin Bundage has proven he can do that, but has been a streaky player in his previous two seasons as starter. Bundage may be asked to rush the passer more in 2019 after recording eight tackles for loss last year. The favorite to start at Phillips' departed inside linebacker spot has to be senior Kevin Henry, although Devin Harper could compete for snaps once he returns from a spring injury.

Even though they put up poor numbers last season and lose some key pieces in the front seven, the Cowboys are optimistic the D can improve. One of the major reasons is more experience, as OSU leaned on a number of true freshman on the back-end a year ago. That, along with the crucial returns of guys like Green and Bundage will be huge going forward.

Special Teams: The good news here is that kicker won't be a problem at all, as Matt Ammendola returns. Ammendola currently sits sixth on the NCAA's active scoring list and comes off a season when he hit 16 of 22 field goals. Punter is a little bit more of a concern, as Gundy turned to 29-year old Tom Hutton to take the reigns.

Bottom Line: The Cowboys were one of the more confusing teams in the country in 2018, good enough to pound Boise State and upset Texas & West Virginia, but also suffering some bad losses. They should be able to establish more consistency this fall, with some impactful new additions and key returnees. Sanders really seems ready to lead what will be a thrilling offense but once more, the defense has to improve. Having veterans in the secondary will go a long way in deciding that. What will really help Oklahoma State is a favorable schedule that includes a breeze of a non-conference slate and archrival Oklahoma at home. They still might not have enough to overtake either OU or Texas to gain entry into the Big 12 Championship Game, but they should keep things interesting, while playing their way into a quality bowl.

Team Projections
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12)
Offensive MVP: WR Tylan Wallace
Defensive MVP: CB A.J. Green
Breakout Player of the Year: QB Spencer Sanders
Impact Freshman: DT Sione Asi (JUCO)

Five-Year Trend
2014: 7-6 (4-5 Big 12)
2015: 10-3 (7-2 Big 12)
2016: 10-3 (7-2 Big 12)
2017: 10-3 (6-3 Big 12)
2018: 7-6 (3-6 Big 12)