College Football Preview 2023: 17. Oregon State Beavers

 

Damien Martinez, Oregon State

17. Oregon State Beavers

Jonathan Smith has built a winner in Corvallis, one that could be extra dangerous with the arrival of "D.J. U"

2022 Review

Oregon State didn't open the 2022 campaign with a fellow Power Five non-conference game, as they had the last several seasons prior, but that didn't make their early slate much easier. The Beavers faced off against two of the Mountain West's premier programs, welcoming Boise State to Corvallis and traveling to face off with Fresno State. They rolled past Boise and won a thriller over Fresno before a 40-point domination of Montana State to round off non-conference. Pac-12 play got off to a shaky start, albeit against the two teams that would eventually play for the conference crown in Utah and USC, before the Beavers reeled off three straight victories. In their first game as a Top 25 team in over a decade, Oregon State fell to Washington but again showed the ability to respond, winning their final three regular season games and beating Oregon in their annual rivalry game. A smashing of an Anthony Richardson-less Florida team in the Las Vegas Bowl put the perfect bow on the successful season, winning ten games for the first time since 2006. For sixth-year head coach Jonathan Smith, it was yet another step in a positive direction for a program that has gone from one of the Pac-12's worst to a legitimate conference title contender.

2023 Outlook

Offense: Since arriving at Oregon State, Smith and offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren have built the Beaver offense into a reliable, efficient group built on a power rushing attack. This group averaged 32.2 points per game in 2022 and did so despite losing QB Chance Nolan to injury. 

Quarterback Ben Gulbranson took over for Nolan following the injury and guided Oregon State to a 7-1 record as starting quarterback. His arm strength doesn't pop the way other it does for other quarterbacks in the Pac-12, but he's the type of solid, intelligent signal-caller thats put you in position to win football games. However, despite his play last fall, Gulbranson has found himself in a heated QB battle that is likely to last into the fall.

Former five-star recruit D.J. Uiagalelei has made his way back home to the West Coast and appears ready to take over the reigns of this offense. "D.J. U" looked like a future star when he filled in for Trevor Lawrence during the wacky 2020 campaign, but he had a disappointing two seasons as Clemson's top guy. It always felt like he needed a change of scenery and playing in a less high-pressure situation should be a great thing for him. He's always had talent, and shown the ability to make plays, but gaining back his confidence will be step No. 1 in unlocking even greater things in 2023.

Whatever happens at the quarterback position, it's obvious who the star on this offense is entering 2023: tailback Damien Martinez. As a true freshman last season, Martinez ran wild, totaling 982 yards and seven scores, including an average of over six yards per carry. After earning Pac-12 Freshman Offensive Player of the Year honors, Martinez is hoping to solidify himself as a household name this year. He's flanked by a pair of veterans, both of them former transfers, in Deshaun Fenwick and Jamious Griffin. Both provide a nice change-of-pace from the hard-running Martinez, with both running for over 400 yards last year.

For this passing attack to take the next step forward, the Beavers are hoping for more production from the receiver position. Tre'Shaun Harrison emerged as the team's most consistent weapon after some initial struggles, but his departure means that others will have to step up. Chief among them being junior Anthony Gould, who finished second behind Harrison in receiving last fall. Gould is a bit of a nontraditional receiver at 5'8", but is a big-time playmaker who averaged nearly 17 yards per catch in 2022.

Beyond Gould, junior Silas Bolden is another undersized jitterbug that can be a real pain for opposing defenders. There's some thought that newcomer Montrel Hatten could also contribute as a true freshman. Hatten arrived during spring and caught some eyes, despite the veteran experience ahead of him on the depth chart. 

Luke Musgrave was selected in the second round of the NFL Draft by Green Bay, but Oregon State still appears to be in a good spot at tight end. Sophomore Jack Velling proved to be an effective pass-catcher last fall, averaging 17.6 yards per catch, and should have no difficulties handling an expanded role. Jake Overman is also back, but don't be surprised if newcomer Jermaine Terry ends up seeing more playing time. The Beavers stole Terry from old North Division foe California and are curious to see if he can grow as a pass-catcher, as he's established himself as a superb blocker.

One of the main components that makes Oregon State such a pain to play each week is their offensive line. It's an experienced group that loves mashing their teeth in the ground game, setting a tone for the entire program. It looks like a Joe Moore Award contender as the best OL in college football, thanks to the return of four starters. The only piece moving on is guard Brandon Kipper, and the Beavers may have found an immediate replacement in the form of Nevada transfer Grant Starck. Starck played primarily tackle with the Wolfpack, but appears capable of moving inside.

Oregon State was going to be in a good spot offensively no matter what happened this offseason, but the addition of Uiagalelei makes things very interesting. Uiagalelei is the most talented quarterback Smith has had since he has taken over in Corvallis and could add some wrinkles to the offense they haven't had in the past. Add to that the return of Martinez and a superb offensive line, the Beaver offense could be one of the Pac-12's premier groups this fall.

Defense: Coordinator Trent Bray engineered a quick turnaround of the Oregon State defense after taking over during the latter half of the 2021 season, including a tremendous fall a year ago. The Beavers held opponents to just 342 yards and 21.4 points per game, which both finished second in the Pac-12. Replicating those numbers will be more difficult with some of the pieces that moved on over the offseason, but the cupboard is far from bare here.

There's plenty of experience among the front seven, most notably the defensive line. Four players who have played starting snaps return to the line, led by junior end Sione Lolohea and senior tackle James Rawls. Lolohea is the team's best pure pass rusher, earning All-Pac-12 recognition a season ago, while Rawls is the type of physical tackle that sets the tone in the heart of the D-Line. Rounding out the unit is veteran Isaac Hodgins, one of the most talented defenders on the team, but a player who has dealt with injuries throughout his Beaver career. He can play either end or tackle at a high level and when 100 percent, is a pest for opposing offenses.

Watch for a pair of newcomers to also factor into the defensive line rotation, even with the veteran experience ahead of them. Freshman Kelze Howard is the gem of this year's recruiting class and flashed during spring, while JUCO transfer Nikko Taylor is an imposing force off the edge at 6'5", 242 pounds.

Losing Omar Speights to the transfer portal in early January was a New Year gut punch for Beaver staff. Speights put up an illustrious career in Corvallis, totaling 308 tackles throughout his career, and had an extra year of eligibility remaining. Some thought the Philadelphia might return to the East Coast, but his decision to transfer to LSU felt like a move focused on boosting his profile and stock ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft.

The departure of Speights leaves a gap at linebacker that won't be easily filled. Oregon State is hoping that junior middle linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold can emerge as a leader, and that some of the young talent also steps up. Mascarenas-Arnold was productive in 2022 and is a steady tackler, but he's not the coverage option Speights was. Adding Illinois transfer Calvin Hart to bolster the unit was a big win; now on his third program, Hart looked on his way to stardom before injury in 2021, but had a resurgent campaign a season ago.

There's plenty of intriguing pieces behind Mascarenas-Arnold, but primarily unproven pieces. Utah transfer Mason Tufaga never got a shot with the Utes but could benefit from the change of scenery, while redshirt frosh Melvin Jordan and Makiya Tongue are expected to be factors. Tongue, formerly a Georgia transfer, spent two quiet years at receiver for the Beavers, but his transition to linebacker will be worth a watch.

The strength of the Beaver defense in 2022 was their stellar pass defense. Look no further than their performances against one of the best quarterbacks in the country: USC's Caleb Williams. The Heisman-winning Williams went just 16-36 for 180 yards and never seemed comfortable against this high-flying group. Unfortunately, the pass defense did fade down the stretch and now must replace both starting cornerbacks.

Senior safety Kitan Oladipo emerged as one of the team's most consistent defender last season and will now be looked at in an even more important lens. With Speights gone, he is their top returning tackler, while getting his hand on six batted passes. The other safety spot appears to be in good hands as well, with both Alton Julian and Akili Arnold seeing a good amount of snaps throughout their Beaver careers. Julian looked like he was going to be a starter in 2022, but was out for the year during fall camp.

It's reasonable to be concerned about the cornerback position, particularly when your schedule includes Cam Ward, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix. Rejzohn Wright and Alex Austin were under-appreciated components of the team's success a year ago and with both moving on, Oregon State is relying on a completely unproven cast of characters.

Bray, who like Smith is an Oregon State alum, received a nice pay increase for his work last fall, but 2023 will show whether it was worth it. There are some highly productive pieces moving on and a gap in leadership in the locker room. If he's able to make the necessary adjustments and keep this defense in the top half of the league, which seems like a reasonable goal, Bray's the time of DC that will begin dotting head coaching shortlists, at least in the Group of Five ranks.

Special Teams: The kicking competition likely to unfold in fall camp and into the season will be crucial for the Beavers, as they decide between senior Everett Hayes and sophomore Atticus Sappington. Hayes slumped miserably last fall and while Sappington was effective in relief, it remains to be seen what he can do with an extended body of work. Punter is also a bit of a problem, but fortunately Anthony Gould gives the return game some dynamite to play with.

Bottom Line

Oregon State's ten-win 2022 was one of the quietest double-digit win seasons I can remember in recent college football history. And, that seems just fine with Smith and this entire staff. The program has embraced an underdog mentality, but the talent on the roster has evolved. There's legit NFL guys on both sides of the ball now, including a rising superstar at tailback and potentially, a dynamic signal-caller leading the way. When you add in a schedule that avoids USC and has a breezy non-conference slate, it feels reasonable to pick Oregon State to hover around that double-digit plateau once again. Who knows, if things break right and with the Pac-12 no longer having divisions, the Beavers could even play their way into a conference championship game.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

Sometimes, hiring an alum to run the college football program becomes a miserable, failed experiment. Other times, when the coach and by extension entire staff understand the culture and what it takes to win at a certain place, it can be a truly magical pairing. That's been the case at Oregon State, as former Beaver quarterback Jonathan Smith enters Year Six in charge. Smith, who played in Corvallis from 1998-2001 and is No. 3 on their all-time passing yards list, inherited an absolute mess from Gary Andersen and has slowly built the Beavers into a serious player in the Pac-12. Smith has filled out his staff with capable coaches that understand how to win in the Pacific Northwest, including offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren and defensive coordinator Trent Bray. Lindgren is a former Idaho quarterback who has spent essentially his entire career on the West Coast, parlaying a gig with Colorado into the Oregon State OC job. Bray has been a fast riser through the coaching ranks, beginning his career as a grad assistant under Dennis Erickson at Arizona State in 2008. He followed Mike Riley from Oregon State to Nebraska before returning to Corvallis in 2018.

Recruiting Breakdown

For Oregon State, the name of the game on the recruiting trail isn't about landing splashy prospects, but finding the right talent that fits their system. They came in 49th nationally for the Class of 2023, but are headlined by Kelze Howard, who could see snaps right away. The Las Vegas product was enrolled during spring and flashed serious upside, seemingly not shying away from the hype surrounding him. The other four-star prospect in the class is quarterback Aidan Chiles, who Oregon State went into California and secured. The 6'4", 195-pounder has an imposing presence on the football field and can make defenders miss with his legs. It's clear he's the future of the program, but it's unlikely he'll work his way far enough up the depth chart to unseat Gulbranson/Uiagalelei. Junior college transfers should also play important roles, adding a nice blend of talent into the mix here. Defensive end Nikko Taylor comes over from Hutchinson CC in Kansas, while corner Tyrice Ivy comes over from College of San Mateo and is at a need position.

2023 Schedule Analysis

Oregon State has a superb opportunity to enter Pac-12 play undefeated at 3-0, as they shouldn't have too much troubles with this non-conference slate. They go on the road to San Jose State and then get UC Davis and San Diego State at home to round out the non-conference. San Diego State has traditionally given Pac-12 teams fit in recent years, but getting them in the friendly confines of Reser Stadium should be huge for the Beavers. League play begins with a road trip to Pullman before getting Utah on a short week, but the rest of the October and early November slate is winnable. That sets up a situation where Oregon State could theoretically be in the Pac-12 Championship mix before the two most important games of their season, at home against Washington and on the road against Oregon. Oregon State has won two of three in the series, but hasn't gone into Eugene and came away with a win since 2007.

2023 X-Factor: Jaden Robinson, CB

Although Omar Speights was a big loss at linebacker, the two departures that could have the larger impact on Oregon State's fortunes in 2023 will be at cornerback. Rejzohn Wright and Alex Austin were established contributors who combined to form a solid pass defense. Not only are they gone, but there aren't an obvious pairing that's likely to take up the mantle from them. Senior Jaden Robinson is a good bet to take one of the spots, essentially setting himself up as CB #1. Robinson has been with the program for a long time now, but has yet to see significant playing time, with an injury robbing him of all of 2021. After making one start in 2022, can he be counted on to be the top corner on the team? The pressure on Robinson was taken up a notch in the spring, when expected starter Skyler Thomas tore his ACL, taking out one of the few other experienced options on this roster. How quickly Robinson and the rest of this cornerback room is able to acclimate to their new roles will have a major impact on the success of the Beavers, particularly with so many talented quarterbacks on their schedule.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3 Pac-12)

Offensive MVP: RB Damien Martinez

Defensive MVP: S Kitan Oladipo

Impact Freshman: DL Kelze Howard

Impact Transfer: QB D.J. Uiagalelei

Breakout Player of the Year: S Alton Julian

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2023: 18. Iowa Hawkeyes

Kaleb Johnson, Iowa 

18. Iowa Hawkeyes

Even meager offensive improvements should put Iowa in the driver's seat in an underwhelming Big Ten West

2022 Review

Things got off to a less-than-stellar start in Iowa City last fall, with the Hawkeyes barely scraping by eventual FCS champion South Dakota State in the opener and giving away the Cy-Hawk to an Iowa State team that finished 4-8. A minor recovery was quickly overshadowed by three straight losses in Big Ten play, albeit to the likes of Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio State. Yet, Kirk Ferentz and staff recovered and despite a horrific offense, Iowa finished the year with four wins in their final five regular season games. Add in a 21-0 shutout of Kentucky in the Music City Bowl, an 8-5 record was a fairly impressive showing considering how things started. But considering just how brutal of a watch the Hawkeyes were for the majority of 2022, it feels like Ferentz and staff will have to deliver significantly more to satisfy the Iowa faithful this fall.

2023 Outlook

Offense: The Hawkeye offense set new records in 2022, but not in the way they would have hoped. Few offenses in FBS ball were as lethargic on this side of the ball as Iowa, who finished with their lowest points per game in over two decades and came in at 129th nationally in total offense. In fact, it was the worst offensive output from a Hawkeye offense since 1978.

Despite the well-known struggles, Ferentz chose to hold on to his son, Brian, as offensive coordinator. It's a move that has obviously frustrated Iowa fans, but the hope is that more playmakers on this side of the ball can signal some sort of change in Iowa City.

Spearheading that change will be a new quarterback, as Cade McNamara arrives from Michigan. McNamara threw for 2,576 yards with the Wolverines during their CFB Playoff run in 2021, but lost his job to rising star J.J. McCarthy a season ago. His arrival provides the Hawkeyes a proven, rock-solid option under center who can extend plays when necessary. Iowa doesn't need him to be a star, but fitting into the Nate Stanley mold as an accurate QB who doesn't turn the ball over should be more than enough.

Iowa has churned out productive tailbacks as well as anyone in the Big Ten, but it felt like they were missing something at this position in 2022. Gavin Williams was never 100 percent and didn't have the breakout campaign many expected, while Leshon Williams was little more than a serviceable option. That allowed Kaleb Johnson to break out down the stretch as a freshman, and he now looks like the clear feature guy entering this fall. 

Johnson notched 779 yards on six starts last season and his 200 yards against eventual Big Ten West Champion Purdue felt like a changing of the guard moment. Between him and McNamara, the Hawkeye backfield should take a major step forward in 2023, with Leshon Williams back to provide a steadying force behind him.

There is turnover among the pass-catchers, as reliable tight end Sam LaPorta moves on to the NFL and Arland Bruce transferred out. Veteran Nico Ragaini is the clear No. 1 wide out now and has proven to be a fine playmaker, despite anemic QB play. How quickly he's able to gel with McNamara will be crucial, as there isn't much proven options behind him at the position. Kaleb Brown arrives from Ohio State and could be a breakout candidate, but has just one career reception, while junior Diante Vines has made five career starts.

LaPorta is a big loss, but few programs anywhere in the country develop tight ends like the Hawkeyes. Junior Luke Lachey is now their top returner from last year in terms of yardage and looks to be the latest in a long line of star tight ends. Michigan transfer Erick All came along with McNamara from Ann Arbor and should also provide some pass-catching prowess. He's not quite as large as Lachey, but does provide an athletic specimen at the position. 

Ferentz has proven himself as an elite developer of offensive line talent, with 18 linemen drafted into the NFL over the course of his Iowa tenure. This year's group may lack a true headliner, but there's loads of experience throughout.

Tackles Gennings Dunker and Mason Richman will reprise their roles once again, while Nick DeJong and Connor Colby are back at guards. Rusty Feith was also a nice pickup from Miami Ohio after starting 34 games for the Redhawks, but the name to watch has to be center Logan Jones. Jones made the transition from defensive line to center a season ago and had some well-documented struggles. Yet, more experience under his belt could be just what he needs to take a step forward this fall.

Rarely do we see an offensive coordinator receive as clear incentives as Brian Ferentz did this offseason, as he must score at least 25 points per game to retain his job. As unique of a situation as it is, there are reason to believe it can happen and for this offense to be at least capable in 2023. That isn't a ringing endorsement, but even being "capable" on this side of the ball will feel a lot better after what Iowa went through a year ago.

Defense: In my opinion, there is not a better defensive coordinator in college football right now than Phil Parker. The longtime Ferentz assistant consistently produces elite units, despite the fact the Hawkeyes rarely bring in blue-chip talent. That's a testament to the system they've built in Iowa City and how impressive this staff is at developing defensive talent. Even with some notable pieces moving on, it feels like this should once again be a top-notch group this fall.

The defensive line could be the strength of this defense, at least to begin the season. The only significant piece moving on is first-round NFL Draft selection Lukas Van Ness, with every other piece back in the fold. Expect veteran Joe Evans and Deontae Craig to terrorize opponents off the edge, while Noah Shannon and Logan Lee bully the ground game up the middle. Both Lee and Shannon earned All-Big Ten Honorable Mention in 2022 and could be the most fearsome tackle combo in the league.

There is some reason to be concerned about the linebacker corps, as Iowa loses two program staples in Jack Campbell and Seth Benson. Campbell is the type of player that will not be easily replaced, a thumper who recorded 128 tackles in 2022. However, the Hawkeyes have proven they can develop this position, and there are options waiting to step up.

Nick Jackson arrives from Virginia and looks likely to slide into the starting middle linebacker spot. He proved to be a productive piece over four seasons with the Cavaliers, making 33 starts, and should be able to acclimate quickly. Who starts alongside him will be the question, as a host of candidates vie for snaps, including Zach Twedt, Kyler Fisher, and Jay Higgins. Higgins and Fisher have seen a healthy dosage of snaps, with Fisher appearing in 33 games over the last several seasons.

Iowa loses a pair of impact defenders on the back-end in Riley Moss and Kaevon Merriweather, but retains one of the Big Ten's rising stars in Cooper DeJean. DeJean took advantage of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to put together an All-Big Ten season, with 75 tackles and five interceptions. He should be one of the best not only in the league, but nationally, and is a legitimate Jim Thorpe candidate.

DeJean will start at one cornerback spot, with junior Jermari Harris set to take over for the departed Moss at the other. Harris was slated in as a starter a year ago before in injury in fall camp caused him to miss the entire season, but he's proven to be a reliable piece. 

At safety, I suspect sophomore Xavier Nwankpa is going to have a breakout campaign. One of the highest-rated recruits in program history, Nwankpa showed flashes last fall and will now slide into a starting spot. He was particularly impressive in the bowl win, likely an appetizer of what will come in 2023 and beyond. The other safety spot will be manned by junior Quinn Schulte, who was an under-appreciated piece on this team last fall. Schulte recorded 71 tackles and six pass deflections, proving he can make plays all over the field.

The fact the Hawkeyes lose several longtime contributors and this defense still looks like it will be among the best in the Big Ten speaks to the culture and system they've developed on this side of the ball. There's little doubt in my mind players will step up at need positions and the core Iowa has in place will make them a feared group once again.

Special Teams: One of the key ingredients for Iowa's consistent success is reliable special teams play, which feels like it will be the case again. Kicker Drew Stevens received All-Conference recognition as a true freshman last fall, while Tory Taylor was used early and often, also earning accolades. Taylor could be a Ray Guy frontrunner, even if the Hawkeyes hope they won't have to use him quite as much.

Bottom Line

For all the criticism that Kirk Ferentz receives, it's hard to argue with his results. The Hawkeyes remain one of the most consistent programs in college football, one that has won eight games or more each season since 2014 (with the exception of the shortened 2020 COVID year). It's a program with a high floor, one that should be a factor in the Big Ten West race each season, at least before the league goes division-less with the additions of USC and UCLA. That makes him a safe pick to take the division this fall, especially considering there doesn't appear to be a clear frontrunner aside from them. If they're able to make even meager improvements on offense and remain as stingy as ever defensively, it feels like they should be able to hover around 8-9 wins and potentially find themselves in the Big Ten Championship Game come December.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenure coach in FBS ball, set to enter his 25th year in 2023. He has a long list of accolades dotting his resume, including a pair of Big Ten Titles, two West Division Titles, and four Big Ten Coach of the Year Awards. His son, Brian, will reprise his role as offensive coordinator, but with an extra sense of pressure. The Iowa alum has coached with the program since 2012, taking over as offensive coordinator in 2017. He received a $50,000 pay cut over the offseason and it's well-known that he will need to average at least 25 points per game to return as offensive coordinator. On defense, longtime Ferentz disciple Phil Parker is back, also back for his 25th year as DC. Parker served as DB coach from 1999-2011 before taking over as coordinator and engineering some of the most productive defenses anywhere in college football.

Recruiting Breakdown

Iowa is rarely a program that is going to finish high up in the recruiting rankings, instead finding players that fit their system and culture. That's the case again for the 2023 Class, which comes in ranked 40th nationally. The headliner is Ben Kueter, an Iowa City native who looks like the next future star linebacker for the Hawkeyes. The 6'3", 220-pound physical specimen was also an accomplished wrestler and will bring that attitude to the gridiron. JUCO transfer Anterio Thompson is another defender who could provide an instant impact after arriving from Iowa Western Community College, while safety Kahlil Tate is a high-upside defensive back. Tate, a long, athletic defender, played both corner and receiver in high school, but looks like he could play safety at the next level. Another name to watch is Leighton Jones, an offensive linemen who played both ways in high school and should develop quickly in this system.

2023 Schedule Analysis

A soft non-conference slate should be a prime opportunity for the Hawkeyes to gain some much-needed momentum early on, with Utah State, Iowa State, and Western Michigan. The Cy-Hawk game with ISU is always a battle, but Ferentz and staff have traditionally owned this rivalry, although the game is in Ames this year. Opening up Big Ten play with a road game against Penn State is brutal, but the Hawkeyes are fortunate that their other two East Division crossover games are winnable, with Michigan State and Rutgers. After a tough October slate, things clear up significantly for Iowa down the stretch, with Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, and the annual Black Friday tilt with rival Nebraska. Overall, the schedule is fairly manageable, although this is one of the toughest road schedules Iowa has played in a long time, not just traveling to Iowa State and Penn State, but also Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Nebraska.

2023 X-Factor: Cade McNamara, QB

We've seen Iowa win with some lacking quarterback play, but no team could have succeeded with the production the Hawkeyes received from that position a season ago. Nobody had any reason to respect the aerial attack, leading to stacked boxes and an extremely one-dimensional group. The addition of Michigan transfer Cade McNamara feels like it could signal a change for the Hawkeyes and bring some much-needed playmaking to this offense. That doesn't mean Iowa is going to have McNamara be chucking the ball all over the field, but he's proven he can move the ball down the field and also create with his legs. Again, just meager improvements from this position could make this team a much tougher foe and set them up nicely to take the West Division and considering McNamara's track record, that seems well within play.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 9-4 (6-3 Big Ten, Lose Big Ten Championship Game)

Offensive MVP: RB Kaleb Johnson

Defensive MVP: CB Cooper DeJean

Impact Freshman: LB Ben Kueter

Impact Transfer: QB Cade McNamara

Breakout Player of the Year: S Xavier Nwankpa

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2023: 19. Troy Trojans

Gunnar Watson, Troy

19. Troy Trojans

With several AAC powers moving on, the Troy Trojans have the chance to be the new class of the Group of Five

2022 Review

Fresh off three consecutive five-win campaigns, new head coach Jon Sumrall had a clear mandate in Year One with Troy: make a bowl game. Two losses within the first month, even if they were road games with Ole Miss and Appalachian State, appeared to make that goal an uphill battle. Instead, the Trojans rattled off 11 consecutive victories to close out the year, which included a Sun Belt Championship Game win over Coastal Carolina and Cure Bowl victory over UTSA. It was one of the most impressive debut campaigns by any first year head coach in FBS ball, especially considering the improvement of the Sun Belt in recent seasons. The next mandate for Sumrall is just as clear as his first: prove 2022 was no fluke and keep the momentum going. That certainly appears to be within reach, as the Trojans bring back a slew of key contributors and have a schedule that points towards another successful campaign.

2023 Outlook

Offense: Troy entertained a quarterback competition entering last fall, with college football journeyman Jarret Doege battling Gunnar Watson, who started seven games down the stretch in 2021. Watson emerged as the guy and put together a rock-solid campaign, throwing for 2,818 yards and 14 touchdowns. With Doege officially gone, can Watson take it up another notch? He played like one of the Sun Belt's best down the stretch, but limiting turnovers will be priority No. 1 in 2023.

Expect the Trojans to lean heavily on a power-run attack, as they did for the majority of 2022. Junior Kimani Vidal is one of the most underrated tailbacks in the nation, a multiyear starter who had his breakthrough moment a season ago. At 5'8", Vidal is a speedster who can squeeze through running lanes, and at 215 pounds, his durability hasn't suffered. Even so, don't be surprised if the Trojans utilize some of the other pieces in the backfield in an effort to lessen the load on Vidal.

One of those pieces is Asa Martin, who began his career at Auburn before a pit stop at Memphis. The veteran is the type of talent that doesn't often come to Troy, and he's proven to be a productive playmaker, totaling 435 yards and seven touchdowns with the Tigers last fall. Add in sophomores Jarris Williams and Damien Taylor, Troy should be able to keep this backfield fresher than most in the league, which should be a major factor down the stretch.

The transfer portal giveth and the transfer portal taketh away, as the Trojans learned this offseason. While they were able to plug numerous holes on their roster with the help of the portal, they lost one of the Sun Belt's bright young stars, wide out Tez Johnson. Replacing his 863 yards won't be easy, but the more important loss will be his ability to stretch the field vertically.

Troy is hoping that junior Deshon Stoudemire can step up and be the new alpha on the outside. Stoudemire has shown steady progress since transferring in from the JUCO ranks and is a slick, well-rounded receiver that can line up in several spots. He might not have the ceiling of Johnson, but should ensure this receiver room doesn't drop off a cliff. 

Alongside Stoudemire, holdovers Jabre Barber and Marcus Rogers could be in store for greater things, while the Trojans also used the portal to add Landon Parker from Wofford and Chris Lewis from Kentucky. Lewis actually made my annual "Ten Players Ready for the Sophomore Leap" article, but never seemed to carve out a role in Lexington. A change of scenery could be just what he needs for the 6'4" giant on the perimeter.

Playing a physical, ground-oriented attack certainly relies on a capable offensive line. There are some concerns to be wary of here, but Troy once again filled holes where necessary in the portal and should feel okay with where this position group stands entering fall.

Left tackle Austin Stidham was a staple for Troy for several years, while center Jake Andrews went in the fourth round to New England. Replacing both will be a tough task, but Eli Russ comes over from Oklahoma State and could anchor the interior of this unit. Russ played in 16 games during his Oklahoma State tenure, but will need to adjust quickly. Fortunately, being flanked by two vets in Daniel King and Grant Betts should help out quite a bit.

Don't expect Troy to be chucking the ball all over the field in 2023, but this offense has enough pieces to put together another successful campaign. Vidal and Watson offer a great starting point and there's reason to believe the receiver group and offensive line should remain quality. Who knows, if Watson continues to progress, this could be one of the better offenses the Sun Belt has to offer.

Defense: In an era defined so much by offense and scoring points, I came to truly appreciate Troy's stifling defense in 2022. It's not a group loaded with future NFL talent, but an incredibly tough and disciplined unit that battles you for every inch.

The results spoke for themselves last fall: Troy finished Top 20 nationally in total defense, eighth in yards per play, and eighth in scoring defense. It wasn't just beating up on weak competition either; the Trojans held numerous high-scoring offenses in check, including Western Kentucky, Coastal Carolina, and UTSA.

Being dominant on defense this fall will be slightly tougher with some of the familiar faces that leave the program, but there's still plenty of proven experience. That's particularly true along the defensive line, which could be among the best in the Group of Five. Tackles T.J. Jackson and Buddha Jones are proven commodities whose athleticism make this unit much more dangerous at the point of attack. Jackson will get after the quarterback, as he notched 6.5 sacks in 2022.

In addition to Jackson and Jones on the interior, junior Javon Solomon will move from the "Bandit" hybrid position to a true defensive end spot. Solomon is a relentless defender who earned All-Sun Belt consideration a season ago. He'll be joined on the edge by Raymond Cutts, who was a JUCO All-American while playing at Garden City Community College. It will be a return to the FBS ranks for Cutts, who originally began his career at UCF.

It's hard to provide an appropriate description for departed linebacker Carlton Martial that encapsulates what he means to this program. But, simply consider the accolades he racked up while at Troy: the all-time FBS leader in career tackles (577), the 2022 Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year, and a four-time All-Sun Belt honoree. Needless to say, replacing arguably the greatest player in program history isn't easy, but the Trojans could still survive with this linebacker corps.

For one, senior end/linebacker Richard Jibunor appears ready to handle an even larger role. Jibunor earned All-Conference recognition after a 7.5 sack 2022, but he's hoping to evolve his game and be more than just a pass rusher this fall. The rest of this linebacker group is short on star power, but there's still experience here, and bringing in Iowa transfer Reggie Bracy will help. Look for senior Jayden McDonald to get first crack at replacing Martial at middle linebacker. There's certainly a drop-off, how could there not be, but McDonald has spent several years in the program and proven to be productive.

There's good news in the secondary, as the Trojans made significant strides in this area a season ago and return every key piece, with the lone exception being safety Craig Slocum. His absence could put more pressure on senior safety Dell Pettus, but the veteran appears ready to handle it, as he finished with 66 tackles last year and has shown he can make plays all over the field.

Both cornerback spots are locked in, as senior Reddy Steward and junior O'Shai Fletcher are back in the fold. Steward is arguably the top playmaker on this defense and a headache for opposing offenses, as he picked off three passes in 2022 and deflected 12 balls. Senior Keyshawn Stevenson looks like he will take over for Slocum at the vacated strong safety spot, although keep an eye on junior college newcomer Dasheen Jackson. He comes over from Hutchinson Community College and had plenty of interest from other FBS programs.

Losing a legend like Martial is always an extra tough pill to swallow when you're a Group of Five program, but this defense was more than just one guy in 2022. I suspect they'll find a way to remain stingy, especially when you consider everything that's back on the D-Line and in the secondary. In fact, I have a feeling this group will remain a Top 25 defense nationally.

Special Teams: There are some questions on special teams for the Trojans. Kicker Brooks Bruce and punter Mike Rivers both depart after impressive seasons, and they will have to make do without Tez Johnson in the return game. Zach Long and Scott Taylor Renfroe are set to battle it out in a kicker competition that will last into fall camp, while it's a bunch of newcomers looking for inside track at punter.

Bottom Line

Neal Brown proved that you could build a consistent winner at Troy, but it appears as though Jon Sumrall has his sights on even loftier goals. Last season was a statement by the first-time head coach, and things set up perfectly for a special encore. For one, both sides of the ball back proven experience at every level, and a capable quarterback leading the way. Just as important, despite the improvement of the Sun Belt in recent years, the Trojans manage to miss most of the other top dogs in the conference during the regular season, most notably Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina. Add in the fact that the Group of Five conferences are undergoing a bit of a transition due to the Big 12, AAC, and C-USA shuffle, it's a golden opportunity for Troy to contend for a New Year's Six bowl. 

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

It's been a meteoric rise for head coach Jon Sumrall up the FBS coaching ladder, as the 40-year old heads into his second season at Troy. The Kentucky alum worked his way up through the Group of Five coaching ranks, with a pit stop at Troy from 2015-2017 as associate head coach and LB coach. Sumrall returned to his alma mater in 2019 and after two years coaching ILB and as co-DC, he was rewarded with his first head coaching gig. Although the Trojans extended him through 2026 over the offseason, don't be surprised if more Power Five programs come calling, particularly if he builds on last season. The offensive coordinator is Joe Craddock, who followed Chad Morris from Clemson to SMU and then Arkansas before a stint at UAB as TE coach. There is a new defensive coordinator in town, as Greg Gasparato replaces Shiel Wood, who took the same job at Tulane. Gasparato is another fast riser in the coaching ranks who was most recently OLB coach at Louisville.

Recruiting Breakdown

Nestled in fertile recruiting grounds, the next step for Troy as a program will be beginning to reel in the impressive high school talent throughout the Southeast. They've focused primarily on the JUCO ranks, landing names like Elijiah Philippe out of Lackwanna CC in Pennsylvania and Steven Catledge out of East Mississippi CC. However, there are some high school pieces that could develop into long-term contributors for the Trojans, namely corner Jack Tchienchou and tackle Tyler Bell. Tchienchou is the type of prospect Troy is looking to build around, a versatile defensive back who had Power Five interest and comes from the highly competitive Atlanta area. 

2023 Schedule Analysis

There are no ranked SEC foes on the schedule this year for the Trojans like there were in 2022, but a September 9th road trip to Kansas State will give Troy a chance to prove themselves on the national stage. The Wildcats will undoubtedly be favorites, but getting them early in the year is a win for the Trojans, as K-State will be looking to break in a new offense that will no longer have dynamic tailback Deuce Vaughn. A home game against Western Kentucky poses another non-conference challenge for the Trojans, but the conference slate looks very attractive. Each one of the road games are winnable: at Georgia State, at Texas State, at Louisiana-Monroe, and at Southern Miss. Getting South Alabama, likely Troy's toughest competition in the Sun Belt West Division, is also a win, albeit on a short week. Even so, expect the Trojans to be favored in as many as 10 of their regular season games, a great recipe for them to repeat as conference champs.

2023 X-Factor: Jayden McDonald, LB

No one player is going to be able to produce the same results as Carlton Martial, who leaves town as the most accomplished player in Troy football history. Instead, the Trojans are hoping a committee approach can pick up the slack and keep this front seven stingy. The key name in that committee will be senior Jayden McDonald, the presumed starter at middle linebacker, the spot vacated by Martial. McDonald appears ready to step up; the one-time Iowa transfer has spent several years in the program and proven to be a tackling machine when healthy. In fact, he was one of the defense's top players in 2021 before injury sidelined him for the season's second half and he also missed significant time last fall due to health problems. Staying on the field will be crucial for the veteran, who is the type of athletic, instinctual linebacker that makes this defense go. If he can, I don't suspect that significant of a drop-off for this defense, especially with so much back on both the D-Line and in the secondary.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 11-2 (7-1 Sun Belt, Win Sun Belt Conference Championship Game)

Offensive MVP: RB Kimani Vidal

Defensive MVP: S Dell Pettus

Impact Freshman: CB Jack Tchienchou

Impact Transfer: LB Reggie Bracy

Breakout Player of the Year: DE Javon Solomon

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2023: 20. Texas A&M Aggies

Conner Weigman, Texas A&M

20. Texas A&M Aggies

The Bobby Petrino hire makes this the greatest wild card in the SEC, creating a true boom-or-bust scenario in College Station

2022 Review

Following a 2021 campaign where Jimbo Fisher finally overcame Nick Saban and brought in the highest-rated recruiting class in college football history, last fall was supposed to be the year Texas A&M asserted themselves as a long-term threat on the national stage. Instead, it was a season defined by dysfunction and ineptitude that has the pressure on Jimbo and the Aggies entering 2023. Things looked like they might go differently; after a shocking loss to Appalachian State at home, the Aggies seemed to get back on track by overcoming both Miami and Arkansas. What followed was a horrendous six-game losing streak, defined by close loss after close loss. Two wins during the back stretch of November helped Jimbo and company save face, but the 5-7 record was a massive disappointment in every way. Jimbo is still protected by a staggering $76 million buyout, but it's clear that he's feeling some heat, shuffling his coaching staff over the offseason. With the pressure on, it's show up or shut up time for both him and the program.

2023 Outlook

Offense: The most significant change over the offseason was Jimbo finally relinquishing playcalling duties and instead turning to a familiar face around SEC circles: Bobby Petrino. It's a necessary change after a season in which A&M finished 101st nationally in scoring, but doesn't come without risk. Petrino has a track record of explosive offenses but is incredibly controversial, and could be more of a distraction than positive asset. 

One of the few good things to take out of 2022 was the emergence of quarterback Conner Weigman, a former five-star prospect who played in five games as a true freshman. Weigman is arguably the most talented QB Fisher has had to work with since Jameis Winston, but there will be growing pains that accompany his growth. A Petrino offense should be a good thing, helping open things up vertically for the big-armed sophomore.

Finding productive tailbacks has not been an issue for Fisher since he arrived at A&M, and the Aggies are on the search for another after the graduation of Devon Achane. Junior Amari Daniels is a holdover who rushed for 200 yards last fall, but keep an eye on highly touted newcomer Rueben Owens II. The one-time Louisville commit is a home-run hitter who gives the team a dynamic playmaking presence that they've been missing.

Petrino's offense will look to open up this aerial attack vertically, which is great news for one of the most talented receiver rooms Fisher has had since arriving here. The return of do-it-all Ainias Smith has a chance to be a game-changer for the Aggies, as they desperately missed his playmaking a season ago. Smith, who will line up just about anywhere on the field, surpassed the 500-yard threshold in both 2020 and 2021 but missed most of last fall due to injury. It will be a fun watch to see how Petrino chooses to use his services in 2023.

While the return of Smith is huge news, the leader of the A&M receiver corps is sophomore Evan Stewart. The former high-profile recruit delivered immediately, notching 53 receptions and 649 yards, despite questionable quarterback play most of the year. If Stewart continues to progress, he has a chance to be one of the SEC's best. He'll be helped by some effective complementary pieces, namely Moose Muhammed and newcomer Micah Tease. Muhammed didn't finish far away from Stewart's numbers in 2022, with 610 yards and four touchdowns himself.

Fisher's system was known for utilizing tight ends, so it will be interesting to see whether that remains the case with Petrino running the offense. Sophomore Donovan Green showcased impressive upside after making four starts last fall and has the talent to be a difference-maker in the passing game. Veteran Max Wright and talented youngster Jake Johnson should also factor into the equation in some form. Wright is more of a blocker, but can get out and move the chains, while Johnson was a big-time recruit who hasn't able to quite show what he was capable of a year ago.

There were some understandable growing pains for the A&M offensive line last fall, as the unit dealt with injuries all year long. The good news is that every starter is now back for 2023 and there should now be more depth, thanks to younger pieces getting more opportunity. There are 91 starts total here, including sturdy veterans Layden Robinson and Reuben Fatheree. A healthy Bryce Foster should pay dividends, as the center has proven to be one of the league's top interior linemen when he's 100 percent.

It was clear that A&M needed to change things up offensively after last season and there's a lot of signs pointing up here. Petrino is an accomplished offensive mind, and young talent dots the skill positions. Whether it's able to grow up quickly will determine just how high this group's ceiling will be, but the likelihood for improvement seems high.

Defense: Despite switching coordinators after Mike Elko left for Duke, the Aggie defense remained stingy, allowing just over 21 points per game on the season. In fact, the defense was the only thing that kept them in most games, and there's reason to believe it will be an effective group once again.

This has a chance to be one of the top defensive lines not just in the SEC, but nationally. Fisher and his staff have done an excellent job recruiting SEC athletes up front and they continue to develop. Junior McKinnley Jackson and sophomore Walter Nolen are overpowering forces in the interior of the unit, while ends Shemar Stewart and Fadil Diggs create havoc off the edge. Nolen in particular feels like he's on the cusp of a big season; the nation's former No. 1 overall recruit made 29 tackles as a true freshman and didn't look intimidated by the physicality of SEC ball. 

It's not just the starting group that makes this A&M defensive line so dangerous, but the depth they boast. The Aggies can rotate in plenty of fresh defenders that will make their presence felt, including names like Shemar Turner, Enai White, and L.T. Overton. This is going to be an incredibly tough unit to run on and if the ends continue to grow, it will be a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks.

There's not as much star power in the linebacker corps, but enough proven experience to expect this to be a quality unit. Senior middle linebacker Chris Russell is the type of intelligent, instinctive defender that every defense needs at his position. Unlike others on this defense, he was a lightly recruited prospect who has continued to grow each and every year. Junior Edgerrin Cooper returns alongside him after recording eight tackles for loss last fall, while Jackson State transfer Jurriente Davis is also going to factor into the rotation.

The only significant losses this defense suffers is on the back-end, with Antonio Johnson and Jaylon Jones off to the NFL and youngster Denver Harris transferring out. Fortunately, senior Demani Richardson is back to lead the secondary, the staff brought in some help through the transfer portal.

Richardson led the team with 73 tackles a season ago and is a ferocious downhill hitter. He'll man the strong safety spot, while junior Jardin Gilbert is over at free safety. The rangy Gilbert led the team in interceptions last fall, with two, but creating more turnovers is of chief priority for this group in 2023.

At cornerback, A&M arguably upgraded by bringing in Tony Grimes to replace the departed Jaylon Jones. Grimes reclassified and enrolled early at North Carolina and was playing against Power Five competition in what was essentially his senior season of high school in 2020. He put together two more productive seasons, but I still feel like there's another level he could reach in what is likely to be his final collegiate season. Steady Tyreek Chappell is to handle the other cornerback spot, but there is further reinforcements from the ACC in the form of Boston College transfer Josh DeBerry and Florida State's Sam McCall.

For as frustrating as the Texas A&M offense has been throughout the Fisher tenure, this program has been churning out elite defenses. That's should be the case in 2023, with proven pieces at every single level and quality depth throughout. In fact, if the defensive line continues to grow and the secondary gels fast, this should be a Top 10 unit nationally in my mind.

Special Teams: Both kicker Randy Bond and punter Nik Constantinou return, likely ensuring another strong special teams year for the Aggies in 2023. Bond was 13-17 on field goals a season ago, while Constantinou is hoping for a resurgent campaign after a down year. If he returns to 2021 levels, he's a legit Ray Guy Award candidate.

Bottom Line

Texas A&M has consistently fielded some of the most purely talented teams in the country the last few years, but the on-field results have been... underwhelming. The Aggies have been solid, but the program is still looking for their true breakthrough on the national stage. Going 9-1 during the COVID-shortened 2020 season looked like it may have been it, but that year was so strange and going 13-11 since has certainly devalued it. This year's team has the chance to be the one to make the breakthrough, but it will take a lot of things coming together at the right time. That includes Petrino coming in and overhauling the offense, the young pieces growing up quick, and the Aggies managing to wade through another brutal schedule. There's certainly a chance, but it feels like this fall should be more about righting the ship and making the necessary fixes for what is likely to be a huge 2024. That may be frustrating to hear for A&M fans as they enter Year Six of the Jimbo Fisher era, but is a reality of just how hard it is to build a consistent winner in college football's top conference.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

Jimbo Fisher is one of just a handful of current college football head coaches who have won a National Title, bringing back the trophy to Tallahassee in 2013. After an eight-year run with Florida State, Fisher made the jump to Texas A&M, where he's gone 39-21 and 23-18 in the SEC. The new offensive coordinator is a familiar name to SEC fans, as Bobby Petrino returns to the league for the first time since his infamous ending at Arkansas over a decade ago. Since, Petrino has been head coach at three different schools; Western Kentucky, Louisville, and Missouri State, but this will be his first coordinator gig in two decades, going back to his post with Auburn in 2002. Defensively, D.J. Durkin is also a controversial name among the college football coaching ranks, going back to his tenure at Maryland. Since his firing in College Park, Durkin spent a year as a consultant with the Atlanta Falcons, before returning to college football as DC under Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss. This will be his second year running the Texas A&M defense.

Recruiting Breakdown

How did A&M follow the highest-rated recruiting class in college football history? There was certainly going to be a step-back for the Class of 2023, but coming in at 15th nationally feels a bit disappointing. However, there's still loads of talent arriving in College Station, punctuated by five-stars D.J. Hicks and Rueben Owens. Hicks is the latest in a long line of big-name defensive line recruits for the Aggies, and the 6'4", 290 pounder has a chance to see snaps right away as a true freshman. Owens was an excellent late get for this staff, as he was committed to Louisville for most of the cycle before Scott Satterfield's decision to leave for Cincinnati. There's plenty of help along the O-Line and in the secondary throughout this class, including an intriguing piece in Micah Tease. Rated as the No. 8 athlete in the Class of 2023, Tease can play either wide receiver or defensive back at the next level and should offer plenty of scheme versatility. Wide receiver appears the more likely route at this point, but the Aggies will find some way to get him on the field in short order.

2023 Schedule Analysis

After a tune-up game at Kyle Field against New Mexico, we will get a good indication of what type of season it will be for A&M when they travel to Coral Gables to square off with Miami. With all the staff changes going on with the 'Canes, it wouldn't be shocking to see A&M favored, even on the road. If they can't get out with a win, the rest of the stretch before their mid-October bye looks miserable, with the lone exception being a home game with Louisiana-Monroe. The annual matchup with Arkansas will once again be at "Jerry World" before a rough two-game back-to-back that includes Alabama and a road game against Tennessee, with the Vols coming off a bye. The back-half of the schedule isn't quite as rough, but road games against Ole Miss and LSU still offer plenty of obstacles.

2023 X-Factor: Conner Weigman, QB

The play of Conner Weigman down the stretch in 2022 was one of the few bright spots A&M fans were able to take away from a miserable year. Now, they're hoping Weigman can continue to progress and develop into a legitimate difference-maker at the position. The former five-star prospect is certainly talented; he's got a fluid throwing motion, an excellent deep ball, and the ability to create with his legs. He has the chance to be the best Aggie quarterback since Johnny Manziel, but growing up in the SEC is no easy task. The rest of the conference is going to throw everything they can at the young quarterback and it will be fascinating to see how he responds. There's no shortage of talent around Weigman and he appeared to have the poise and confidence to handle the pressure last fall. But, doing so over the course of an entire fall against a brutal schedule will be a whole different animal for the sophomore. 

Team Projections

Projected Record: 8-4 (4-4 SEC)

Offensive MVP: WR Evan Stewart

Defensive MVP: S Demani Richardson

Impact Freshman: RB Rueben Owens

Impact Transfer: CB Tony Grimes

Breakout Player of the Year: DL Walter Nolen

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2023: 21. TCU Horned Frogs

Mark Perry, TCU

21. TCU Horned Frogs

Expect TCU to snap back to reality in 2023, but the Frogs should remain in the mix in wide-open Big 12

2022 Review

With a 23-24 mark over the previous four seasons and breaking in a new head coach to replace the legendary Gary Patterson, expectations were muted for TCU entering 2022. The Frogs faced down a treacherous schedule and following an injury to starting QB Chandler Morris in the opener, merely reaching a bowl game represented a realistic goal for head coach Sonny Dykes. Instead, veteran QB Max Duggan powered a truly special season that will go down forever in TCU lore. After a 3-0 start in the non-conference, a 55-24 drubbing of Oklahoma to kick off October showed that this TCU team was not going to be pushed around. In fact, that win over the Sooners began a stretch of four consecutive victories over ranked foes for the Horned Frogs. There were plenty of close calls, but after finishing off Texas and Baylor in rather ugly fashion before pounding Iowa State, TCU completed one of the most shocking undefeated regular seasons in college football history. The Big 12 Championship Game was a hiccup, as they were unable to complete a thrilling comeback to overcome Kansas State, but TCU proved they weren't a fluke by upsetting Michigan in the CFB Playoff Semis. The fairytale story was spoiled in the National Championship by the machine that is the Georgia Bulldogs, but it shouldn't overshadow just how magical of a year it was for the Frogs. In a sport that is often defined by the dominance of its blue bloods, TCU showed that the "Cinderella" could exist in modern college football and inspired fans across the country that maybe, just maybe, the same could happen at their schools.

2023 Outlook

Offense: Duggan was not your typical backup, as the hard-nosed quarterback had already started multiple seasons for the Horned Frogs and proven himself to be an accomplished winner. His 2022 campaign will forever go down as stuff of legend around Fort Worth, even if he wasn't able to help them stick the landing. 

But, for as big of a loss as Duggan may be, the more significant offensive departure may be offensive coordinator Garret Riley. The younger brother of Lincoln, Garret came with Sonny Dykes from SMU and earned a reputation as a rising star in the industry. His work last fall was so impressive that Dabo Swinney came down and snatched him up to run his offense at Clemson. Dykes countered by bringing in Kendal Briles from Arkansas, a proven coordinator with prior experience in the Big 12, but it still feels like a downgrade in the coaching staff department.

The key for Briles will be getting Chandler Morris back up to speed after he missed nearly the entirety of the 2022 season. Morris, who began his career at Oklahoma before transferring to TCU, has flashed at multiple times throughout his tenure with the Frogs but has yet to put it together over an entire year. He's not the runner that Duggan was, but is a fearless downfield passer that could unlock new possibilities for this offense. Staying healthy will be the key this fall; there's no piece like Duggan waiting behind him in the QB room this time around.

Tailback Kendre Miller has also moved on, meaning TCU will have to replace the starting backfield that fueled such a miraculous run. However, that doesn't mean the cupboard is bare, as junior Emani Bailey has proven to be a capable contributor and the Frogs landed Trey Sanders from Alabama. Sanders is a former five-star talent who never really got rolling in Tuscaloosa due to injury. With Jase McClellan set to handle feature back duties for the Tide in 2023, Sanders is hoping a change of scenery can be the springboard his career needs.

There are losses to be aware of on the perimeter, including program staple Quentin Johnston, who is now with the LA Chargers. It's hard to properly describe Johnston's importance to this offense last fall; he was Duggan's security blanket, the type of reliable weapon that every offense covets. Yet, he also proved he could take the top off opposing defenses and his ability to stretch them vertically opened things up underneath. 

Unfortunately, it's not just Johnston leaving the receiver room. Derius Davis and do-it-all Taye Barber also exhausted their eligibility, leaving a major leadership gap at the position. To make matters worse, projected breakout candidate Jordan Hudson was a surprise transfer portal entrant during the spring and will be moving on to SMU. 

Those departures leave behind an underwhelming cast of characters, a group with upside but unproven ability. Junior Savion Williams likely takes over as No. 1 after notching 29 receptions for 392 yards a season ago, but the newcomers will be worth a watch. Alabama transfer JoJo Earle is a former high-profile recruit who, much like Sanders, was unable break through with the Tide, while true freshman Cordale Russell received rave reviews in the spring. Senior tight end Jared Wiley should bring some much-needed experience to the pass-catching rotation, as he's played ample snaps with both Texas and TCU.

TCU's offensive line was an under-appreciated aspect of their success a season ago and appears to be in a decent spot, although losing anchor Steve Avila is significant. Junior tackle Andrew Coker should lead the right side of the unit, while senior guard Brandon Coleman is a punishing force on the left. Expect Tommy Brockermeyer, yet another Alabama transplant, to factor into the rotation somewhere. He was the No. 2 OT in his class coming out of high school, but returns home to his native Fort Worth for more opportunity with the Frogs.

This staff did a fine job filling holes with impact transfers and getting back Chandler Morris back healthy should be a major plus. Yet, it's hard to overlook just how many important pieces moved on from this offense over the offseason. This is going to be a massive transition and it's likely there will be some growing pains, especially early on. Dykes is known as an offensive mind, but he'll have his work cut out for him keeping this group as one of the best in the Big 12.

Defense: With the offense breaking in so many new faces, there will be increased pressure on a TCU defense that ranked 95th in the nation in total defense during 2022. They simply have to get better on this side of the ball if they want to remain in the thick of things in the Big 12 and there's reason to believe they can.

The defensive line is short on experience, but big on potential, namely defensive tackle Damonic Williams. Williams was a Freshman All-American last fall and has proven to be a top-notch run stopper in the heart of the line. However, it's unclear which pieces will be surrounding him in the starting rotation. Redshirt freshman Paul Oyewale provides plenty of upside, while junior Caleb Fox appeared in all 15 games in 2022.

There's a big loss at linebacker, as Dee Winters moves on after totaling 79 tackles and 14.5 tackles for loss in 2022. Winters wasn't just a productive defender; he set the tone for the entire defense and gave the front seven a much-needed attitude. Even if the Horned Frogs are able to find someone that can get after the quarterback the way he could, there's additional value they'll be without. 

Fortunately, the linebacker corps does still return several familiar faces, notably senior middle linebacker Jamoi Hodge and junior outside linebacker Johnny Hodges. Hodges is the type of old-school linebacker that reminds you of a different era of TCU football. I see a lot of Tank Carder in him, a key figure in TCU's upset Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin all the way back in 2011. Behind those two, a pair of former SEC transfers provide ample depth in Shadrach Banks and Marcel Brooks. Brooks is one of the most fascinating athletes on the team for me, a former five-star prospect who began his career at LSU. After a stint in Baton Rouge, Brooks made a short-lived transition to receiver before moving back to the defensive side of the ball.

The secondary is what will likely make-or-break TCU's defense in 2023. There are some important pieces returning, namely Mark Perry, but enough losses that could cause some concern. Considering some of the opponents that dot TCU's schedule, they are going to need this unit to play well, or risk getting into shootouts week-in, week-out.

Perry is one of the best defenders in the Big 12, a heat-seeking missile at strong safety who was second on the team in tackles last fall. He should be the leader of the defense, with fellow senior Millard Bradford set to play a major role alongside him. At nickelback, youngster Bud Clark proved to be quite the playmaking specimen a year ago and should reprise his role. Replicating five interceptions will be tough, but the Frogs are hopeful he can round out his game and play more of a role in run support.

Cornerback Josh Newton is another key player returning to the fold, as he earned All-Big 12 honors for his performance last fall. The veteran isn't as physically imposing as some of the other top-flight corners in the league, but is the type of intelligent, sturdy defender every defense needs. However, it's unclear who will handle the other corner spot with Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson now a Los Angeles Ram.

TCU got away with playing a bend-don't-break style on this side of the ball last year but with some of the offensive questions, it feels like that mandate has changed. That doesn't mean the Frogs need an elite unit, but one that can withstand some of the explosive offenses they will see in the Big 12 this season. Developing a competent pass rush and maintaining a decent pass defense will put them in position to do so.

Special Teams: One of the most underrated aspects of TCU's success in 2022 was their special teams. Kicker Griffin Kell earned All-Big 12 honors after going 17-19 on field goals, while punter Jordan Sandy proved capable, with an average of nearly 40 yards per punt. The return game will miss Derius Davis and Taye Barber, but there's hope JoJo Earle can come in and bust things open here.

Bottom Line

2022 was not a complete fluke for the Frogs, but imagining they can replicate it this fall feels like a bit of a stretch. Things worked out just about as perfect as they could, with a path opening up both in the Big 12 and nationally, and TCU getting a few lucky breaks along the way. The reality is that a step back in 2023 is almost guaranteed, but that doesn't mean this program will fall off the face of the Earth, either. There are severe losses offensively and plenty of question marks, but Dykes' track record speaks for itself. With a decent defense and healthy Chandler Morris, the Horned Frogs can still be a major factor in the Big 12 Title race, particularly considering there isn't an overwhelming favorite in the league right now. Who knows, if things work out, a trip to a New Year's Six bowl would be an incredibly impressive encore for Dykes and company.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

Sonny Dykes enters his second season as head coach at TCU, but the 53-year old has a long history with the state of Texas. He played baseball at Texas Tech and spent time on staff under Mike Leach, before head coaching pit stops at Louisiana Tech, California, and SMU. Dykes will be operating with a pair of co-offensive coordinators in A.J. Ricker and Kendal Briles. Ricker will reprise his same role as OL coach, while Briles comes over from Arkansas as a replacement for the departed Garret Riley. He's a controversial hire, but the reality is that he's a proven play-caller with multiple years of experience at the Power Five level. Defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie will run it back once more, a coach who joined Dykes staff after several years at Tulsa. 

Recruiting Breakdown

Capitalizing off last season's on-field success was the name of the game for Dykes and staff and they did a fine job, reeling in a Top 20 class. There are eight four-stars in the group, helping out at just about every level offensively and defensively. Wide out Cordale Russell is the headliner, a dynamic weapon out of Mesquite, Texas who is already drawing positive reviews from the coaching staff. Defensively, Markis Deal is a ferocious defensive linemen who could see snaps right away at defensive tackle, while JUCO transfer Channing Canada comes in at a need position in cornerback. Coming from Trinity Valley Community College, Canada was highly sought after by a bunch of Power Five programs and should acclimate quickly to the Power Five ranks.

2023 Schedule Analysis

TCU's season opener against Colorado has a chance to be one of the most watched games of college football's first weekend. Not only will the public be curious to see how the Horned Frogs follow up last year, Deion Sanders is sure to capture plenty of on-lookers as he begins his CU tenure. Big 12 play will kick off two weeks later for TCU with a road trip to league newcomer Houston, before a tricky rivalry meeting with SMU in the "Iron Skillet" game. After a soft stretch of three games, TCU's final five will determine what they are able to accomplish in 2023. First, road things with Kansas State and Texas Tech, back in Forth Worth for Texas and Baylor, then a trip to Norman to wrap it all up. Getting a bye in between K-State and Texas Tech is a saving grace, but even going 2-3 during that stretch may be considered a success for the Frogs.

2023 X-Factor: Damonic Williams, DT

Nose tackle Damonic Williams was a pleasant surprise last fall, playing crucial snaps for the Horned Frogs and earning Freshman All-American honors. Now, the hopes for the sophomore have been taken up a notch. As the lone returning starter on the defensive line, Williams not only needs to provide pressure, but play a key leadership role in the Horned Frog locker room. That's even more vital considering that there are questions up front for this team. Dylan Horton and Dee Winters took nearly 60 percent of the team's sacks with them when they departed, and there isn't a ton of experience at either end spot. Expect this to put an outsized focus on Williams and what he's able to do this fall.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 8-4 (6-3 Big 12)

Offensive MVP: QB Chandler Morris

Defensive MVP: S Mark Perry

Impact Freshman: WR Cordale Russell

Impact Transfer: RB Trey Sanders

Breakout Player of the Year: WR JoJo Earle

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2023: 22. Miami Hurricanes

Tyler Van Dyke, Miami

 

22. Miami Hurricanes

Even after the disaster that was 2022, Miami is far too talented to be down for long

2022 Review

Mario Cristobal was one of the splashiest hires of the 2021-22 coaching carousel, returning home to take the reigns at his alma mater. Things got even more interesting when Cristobal rounded out his staff with Josh Gattis, the 2021 Broyles Award winner, and Kevin Steele, an accomplished defensive coordinator who was most recently at Auburn. Everything on paper indicated the Hurricanes were going to be a real threat in the ACC from the get-go. The thing is, college football is not played on paper. In real life, the 'Canes offense lacked explosiveness, missed QB Tyler Van Dyke when he went with injury, and had no hope against the best the ACC could offer. The result was an ugly 5-7 debut for Cristobal and company, which included a 42-point throttling at the hands of rival Florida State. It was about as horrendous of an opener for Cristobal as could be imagined, but the former offensive linemen doesn't appear to be shying away from the pressure. After an active offseason that included shuffling the coaching staff and landing some big names from the portal, Miami hopes to be back with a vengeance in 2023.

2023 Outlook

Offense: Josh Gattis may have had the credentials worthy of the offensive coordinator job, but he always seemed like a strange fit in Coral Gables. He was unable to adjust the offense to Miami's personnel and following injury to Tyler Van Dyke, there was little hope for a successful campaign. Cristobal quickly cut ties with him and will turn instead to Shannon Dawson, who spent the last three seasons at Houston.

It will be a sea change in philosophy with Dawson running the show, one that will predicated on an aggressive downfield passing attack. It seems to be a better fit with what the Hurricanes currently have on the roster, particularly with Van Dyke back and healthy. 

Van Dyke took advantage of an injury to D'Eriq King to seize the starting quarterback job in 2021 and looked like a star in the making. He earned ACC Rookie of the Year honors after throwing for 2,931 yards and 25 touchdowns, but the 2022 encore fell short. He never seemed fully healthy and even when he was on the field, the results were underwhelming. Assuming he's back to 100 percent and in an offense that should better cater to his strengths, a huge 2023 feels likely.

Former Ole Miss transfer Henry Parrish Jr. took advantage of injuries and poor play in front of him to lead the 'Canes in rushing, with 616 yards on the year. He's back to be the feature guy, but sophomore Don Chaney Jr. is healthy and should be ready to compete with snaps. Injuries have been an unfortunate theme of Chaney's time with Miami but when he has been healthy, he's displayed ample potential. 

There's plenty of experience at receiver, but none of the returning candidates have proven they can take on a leading role. Will that change in Dawson's system? Former Clemson transfer Frank Ladson Jr. and junior Breshard Smith were two of their top pass-catchers a season ago and offer plenty of playmaking ability. Ladson has always had talent, but putting it together over the course of an entire season has been the challenge. There's also junior Xavier Restrepo, another guy who missed time in 2022 with injury, but has proven to be a reliable weapon on the perimeter. None of the trio may be All-ACC wide outs, but all offer plenty of upside, particularly in an offense that should tailor to their strengths.

Miami has been a factory for producing high quality tight ends, and they sent another one off to the NFL this past spring in Will Mallory. Mallory wasn't the most athletic or physically imposing tight end the 'Canes have sent to the league, but he was the type of steady, rock-solid contributor that every offense covets. With his departure, Miami is hopeful one of the pair of Elijah Arroyo or Jaleel Skinner can step up and play a key role in this offense. Both were highly sought after recruits, but my bet would be on Skinner, who flashed significant upside a season ago and has the athleticism to be a nightmare for opposing defenses.

Any hopes of a successful season for the Hurricanes hinges on an improved offensive line. Cristobal's speciality, this one was one of the most disappointing units in the entire country in 2022, and has to be better.

Fortunately, there are reinforcements set to arrive in the form of Alabama transfer Javion Cohen and UCF transfer Matt Lee. Cohen was a multiyear starter in Tuscaloosa who should bring an immediate edge to the interior of the unit, slated to fill in at one of the guard spots. Lee is set to join him, a physical center who started three seasons for the Knights and shouldn't have any issues acclimating to Power Five ball. However, the most important name to watch on the 'Canes O-Line is none other than tackle Zion Nelson, an All-American talent who dealt with injuries last fall. Nelson suffered a knee injury before the season and never seemed right, appearing in just two games, but has NFL talent and should anchor the left side of the rotation. Add in Francis Mauigoa, a five-star newcomer who could start right away, it's hard to imagine this offensive line not taking a huge step forward in 2023.

Just about everything that could go wrong went wrong for Miami's offense a season ago, but there's reason to believe in this group for 2023. For one, Dawson seems like a much more sensible hire than Gattis, even if the move wasn't as flashy. He seems like the type of coordinator that should elevate this group, especially with a healthy Van Dyke under center. Add in a healthy Chaney and an improved O-Line, this could be one of the best in the ACC this fall.

Defense: There are changes on the defensive side of the ball, as Cristobal also shuffled the board here. Gone is Kevin Steele, who has since taken up the DC post at Alabama, and replaced by Lance Guidry, who comes over from Marshall. It's another hire that may not be as flashy, but seems to better fit what Miami wants to do on this side of the ball.

The defensive line could be among the best in the ACC, loaded with star power. Defensive ends Jahfari Harvey and Akheem Mesidor combined for 12.5 sacks in 2022 and will be pests in opposing backfields once again. Mesidor is one of my favorite defenders in the country, a relentless edge rusher who has gotten better each year in the collegiate ranks and could be in store for a huge junior season.

While Harvey and Mesidor create chaos off the edge, look for sophomore Leonard Taylor III to be a potential breakout candidate. Taylor is a former high-profile recruit who came on strong at the end of 2022 and could be one of the most talented interior linemen anywhere in the country. Opposing blockers simply can't keep up with the lightning quick Taylor, who is a bit of a unique defensive tackle at 6'3", 305 pounds. It's unclear who will handle the other starting tackle duties alongside Taylor, but USC transfer Jacob Lichtenstein could be a good bet. The sixth-year senior returns to his native state and has proven to be a solid contributor at the P5 level.

Expect Guidry to reprise the 4-2-5 look the Hurricanes ran last fall, and it appears as though both starting linebackers are locked in. Junior Corey Flagg Jr. finished third on the team in tackles, with 56, and also notched 10.5 tackles for loss. He's proven to be an impact player, but has to develop more consistency if the 'Canes defense is going to take the next step. Wesley Bissainthe, who recorded 30 tackles himself, is the most likely starter next to him. 

One of the more interesting names to watch on defense is Washington State transfer Francisco Mauigoa, who comes over after two seasons in Pullman. The hard-hitting defender brings much-needed physicality to a rush defense that was pushed around far too often in 2022, and it will be interesting to see if he can overtake either Flagg or Bissainthe for more playing time. Keep your eye on him through fall camp and into the regular season.

For the first time since 2006, Miami has an All-American defender returning, in the form of safety Kamren Kinchens. The junior possesses traits that are reminiscent of some of the Hurricane greats who have passed through Coral Gables. His ball-hawking ability is Ed Reed-esque, while his ability to get downhill and make an impact in the rushing game reminds me of Sean Taylor. Kinchens is the unquestioned leader of this defense once again and a legit Jim Thorpe Award candidate.

The rest of the secondary surrounding Kinchens is in a good spot, although corner could be a position to watch. Safety James Williams is not to be overshadowed; the junior has caught the eye of NFL folks, thanks in large part to his 6'5", 210-pound build. He's not going to make as many big-time plays as Kinchens, but should be a reliable contributor once again. The same can be said about senior nickelback Te'Cory Couch, a multiyear starter who is taking advantage of his extra COVID year.

Based on pure talent, this may be one of the most impressive defenses in the nation. However, most of this talent was on the roster a season ago and the results were uneven. The pressure is on Guidry to bring everything together into a cohesive, disciplined unit. If he does, Miami's ceiling as a team is significantly raised.

Special Teams: There's good and bad news on special teams for the 'Canes. On one hand, kicker Andres Borregales is back after knocking down 17 of 20 field goals in 2022. The legacy could be a Lou Groza Award candidate this fall. However, the punter position is in for a changing of the guard, as Lou Hedley moves on, leaving newcomer Dylan Joyce as the likely starter.

Bottom Line

It feels like the same old story for Miami: there is a bunch of talent dotting the roster and some real star power, but will it equate to wins? Cristobal seems to have a much better understanding of the personnel he has and both coordinator hires seem like sensible, smart directions to go in. But, there are no easy paths to success in modern college football, and the ACC's new format actually hurts Miami. In the old Coastal Division, they would be my clear favorite, with only North Carolina and potentially Pittsburgh being able to earn the same consideration. With the elimination of divisions, a path to the ACC Championship Game becomes tougher and even if things go right, the 'Canes feel like a step below the true elites of this league. Instead, Miami should be hoping for a much better product on the field and solid gains in the wins column, which should indicate real progress for Cristobal and set the stage for even greater things in 2024.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

Mario Cristobal played offensive tackle at Miami from 1989-1992 and has returned to his alma mater as head football coach. It's the third FBS program Cristobal has led and he's earned a reputation as one of the game's elite recruiters, but the on-field results haven't always matched up: he's 67-67 all-time. The new coordinators will be Shannon Dawson and Lance Guidry, both arriving from Group of Five schools. Dawson is a Dana Holgorsen disciple who should bring plenty of fireworks to Hard Rock Stadium, while Guidry comes over from Marshall. Guidry has previous head coaching experience, leading his alma mater McNeese State from 2016-18, but the Miami DC job is unquestionably his biggest break in coaching up to this point. 

Recruiting Breakdown

Cristobal's recruiting acumen was a major reason why he earned the Miami job in the first place and he didn't disappoint with his first full class, landing the nation's seventh best group. It's a class headlined by the two five-stars, tackles Francis Mauigoa and Samson Okunlola. Mauigoa has a chance to slide in and start right away at right tackle, while Okunlola is likely to back up Zion Nelson on the left side. Another potential impact freshman to watch is wide out Nathaniel Joseph, a four-star who stayed in his hometown of Miami. Although undersized, Joseph is a dynamic, elusive threat in the open field who could come in and see snaps right away in the slot. On the defensive side of the ball, edge rushers Rueben Bain and Jayden Wayne are future stars who Cristobal and staff managed to keep inside the state. Bain is the higher-rated one and more likely to play right away. He's a powerful rusher with impressive technique who should learn from the multiple premier rushers already on the Hurricanes roster.

2023 Schedule Analysis

We'll have a good understanding of just what type of Miami season it will be within the season's first two weeks, as the 'Canes welcome Texas A&M to Hard Rock Stadium. Both programs enter 2023 under pressure, with the Aggies coming out on top last fall. ACC play will kick off a month later, with a home game against Georgia Tech and concludes with a road trip to Boston College. That game against BC may be their easiest road tilt of the fall in the conference, as they also travel to North Carolina, NC State, and  Florida State. That game against Florida State will be a big one; the 'Noles are looking for their third straight victory in the rivalry series after a run of four straight from Miami.

2023 X-Factor: Xavier Restrepo, WR

In order for the new offense to click, Miami will need more from their group of receivers. It's an experienced group and one with talent, but there's a lack of a true alpha in the room. That could change if Xavier Restrepo is able to recover from the foot injury that cost him a huge chunk of the 2022 campaign. The fourth-year junior was one of Van Dyke's top targets in 2021 and his absence last fall was a major reason why the passing game looked so anemic all season. He has the physical tools to be an All-ACC performer and in this offense, we could be in store for a special season.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 8-4 (5-3 ACC)

Offensive MVP: QB Tyler Van Dyke

Defensive MVP: S Kamren Kinchens

Impact Freshman: OT Francis Mauigoa

Impact Transfer: OG Javion Cohen

Breakout Player of the Year: DT Leonard Taylor III

Five-Year Trend