Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Bowl Picks 2019: Bahamas Bowl-New Orleans Bowl (Dec.20-21)

Benny LeMay, Charlotte (Bahamas Bowl)
Bahamas Bowl (December 20th)
(7-5) Buffalo Bulls vs. (7-5) Charlotte 49ers
Both of these teams ended 2019 on a high note, as Buffalo has won five of six entering, and the 49ers five consecutive. For Charlotte, they're not only having to extend the win streak, but come out victorious in their first ever FBS postseason berth. They'll have to contain Group of Five Heisman Winner Jarrett Patterson, who finished the regular season with 1,626 yards and 17 touchdowns. Charlotte is able to counter with their own 1,000-yard back, Benny LeMay, and a methodical offense. I actually like the Niners here; they have the momentum and the defense is able to create turnovers. I don't think Buffalo has the vertical passing game to get the job done.
Charlotte, 27 Buffalo, 20

Frisco Bowl (December 20th)
(7-5) Utah State Aggies vs. (6-6) Kent State Golden Flashes
This bowl got a lot more interesting earlier this week when three Utah State players were charged with possession of a controlled substance, including QB Jordan Love. It remains to be seen what impact that will have on this game, particularly for Love, who already planning to go pro. Kent State has a mediocre offense, but we'll have to see what edition of the Aggie defense we'll get. The group has been solid for much of the 2019 campaign, but allowed 56 points to Boise State a few weeks ago.
Utah State, 30 Kent State, 21

New Mexico Bowl (December 21st)
(8-5) Central Michigan Chippewas vs. (9-3) San Diego State
San Diego State enters this one as a 3.5 point favorite, based mainly on the respect Rocky Long has garnered leading the Aztecs. They're guided this year by a terrific defense, allowing just 12.8 points per game. No team has eclipsed 31 against SDSU, and they've allowed just seven across their last three. That presents a stiff challenge for Central Michigan head coach Jim McElwain and OC Charlie Frye. The Chippewas can do some unique things offensively, and have a veteran quarterback in Quentin Dormady. This is still going to be a challenge even going up against an Aztec offense that has struggled to create big plays.
San Diego State, 21 Central Michigan, 17

Cure Bowl (December 21st)
(7-5) Liberty Flames vs. (6-6) Georgia Southern Eagles
This is another opportunity for a program to get their first ever victory, as Liberty completed the FBS transition just this year. Former Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze has developed an explosive offense with the Flames, but 6-6 Georgia Southern is no slouch. Liberty has an absolute gunslinger at QB in Stephen Calvert (3,393 yards, 26 TD) and a Biletnikoff Award contender in Antonio Gandy-Golden (1,333 yards, nine TD). The Eagles nearly upset 10-2 Minnesota earlier this season, and were the only team to take down Appalachian State this fall. Their triple-option is hard to replicate in practice, and I thin Liberty has a tough time with it.
Georgia Southern, 28 Liberty, 24

Boca Raton Bowl (December 21st)
(10-2) SMU Mustangs vs. (10-3) Florida Atlantic Owls
Even with the home-field advantage working in their favor, the Owls will be without Lane Kiffin, who left for Ole Miss. Florida Atlantic will still be able to throw some things at the Mustangs, with former Oklahoma transfer Chris Robison behind center and one of the country's premier tight ends, Harrison Bryant. But will it be able to keep up with the Mustangs over the course of sixty minutes? SMU can hit you everywhere on offense, with Texas transfer Shane Buechele the one pulling the strings at quarterback. I like them to cap off a resurgent year with a victory.
SMU, 44 Florida Atlantic, 34

Camellia Bowl
(6-6) Florida International Panthers vs. (7-5) Arkansas State Red Wolves
Winners of four of their last five games, Arkansas State rolls into Montgomery, Alabama, with significant momentum. The Red Wolves are headed by a vertical passing attack centered around getting the ball to Omar Bayless, who finished off second in FBS in receiving yards, with 1,473. They also have two important supporting pieces in Jonathan Adams Jr. and Kirk Merrritt, who both finished the regular season with over 700 yards. FIU barely snuck into a bowl at 6-6, but beat Miami early into November, proving they can knock off some of the big boys. They have a strong defense, but I'm not sure if the offense can keep up with the Red Wolves.
Arkansas State, 35 FIU, 26

Las Vegas Bowl
(7-5) Washington Huskies vs. (12-1) Boise State Broncos
This going to be one of the most fascinating early bowl games on the docket, as Washington head coach Chris Petersen coaches his final collegiate game against the school that got him established, Boise State. His Huskies have been incredibly streaky all season, particularly quarterback Jacob Eason and the secondary. They do have the talent advantage, but there is a reason this Broncos team came within three points of an undefeated season. They feature a balanced offense, along with a defense headlined by linebacker Curtis Weaver (13.5 sacks on the year). I think the motivation will be high on both sides, but I trust what I'm getting from Boise State a little more.
Boise State, 30 Washington, 27

New Orleans Bowl
(12-1) Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. (9-4) UAB Blazers
Speaking of teams that came awfully close to an undefeated season, Appalachian State was flawless beyond a three-point heartbreaker to Georgia Southern. That success ended up with head coach Eli Drinkwitz taking the Missouri job, although new head man Shawn Clark will ensure some continuity with the program, as he has been with the Mountaineers since 2016. App. State will still look awfully similar under him as they did under Drinkwitz, with a dominant ground attack. Junior Darrynton Evans has 1,323 yards on the campaign, and he'll give UAB some real troubles. The Blazers do have a defense that can keep them competitive, but their offense has struggled down the stretch. They'll have a tough time overcoming the Mountaineers' advantage in talent, especially coming off a 43-point loss in the C-USA Championship Game.
Appalachian State, 37 UAB, 24


Tuesday, December 10, 2019

2019 College Football Season Awards

Matt Rhule, Coach of the Year
College football seasons always seem to fly by, and the 2019 campaign was no exception. It seems like just yesterday Miami and Florida were kicking off the season but after three months, the regular season is officially over. Bowl games and the Playoff will still provide us excitement, but with the season closed, it is time to hand out awards for the season.

Projected National Champion: Ohio State Buckeyes
I don't think you can go wrong picking any of the four Playoff teams, even Oklahoma. Ohio State has a tough semifinal test with Clemson, but the way that they are playing on both sides of the ball, I still think is the best all-around team in the nation. You have to be a little bit wary about a beat up Justin Fields at quarterback, but the Buckeyes still have so many ways to attack you. I also think they have the best defense of the four-team field, which should do just enough to take down Joe Burrow and LSU.
Finalists: LSU Tigers, Clemson Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners (Playoff field)

Coach of the Year: Matt Rhule, Baylor
My mid-season Coach of the Year, I think Matt Rhule will win the final edition as well. You can't overlook just how impressive this turnaround in Waco has been, from 1-11 in 2017 to an 11-2 2019. This season also included a near Big 12 Title, as the Bears nearly ended Oklahoma's reign atop the league. Baylor also gets a chance to play once again on a major stage, taking part in the Sugar Bowl against SEC runner-up Georgia. There is talk of Rhule possibly taking his talents pro, but for now, let's just appreciate what he has built at Baylor.
Finalists: Ed Orgeron (LSU), P.J. Fleck (Minnesota), Ryan Day (Ohio State)

Biletnikoff Award (best receiver): Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
First off, I want to say I was absolutely shocked with the finalist list for this award, which didn't include either Omar Bayless or a single Alabama wide out. However, Ja'Marr Chase is still deserving of this honor, leading the nation in receiving yards and being the go-to guy in an explosive LSU Tiger offense. Chase was one of my ten players featured on this spring's "Ten Players Ready for the Sophomore Leap" and he has done just that and more, likely to be the top receiver taken in the 2021 NFL Draft (he isn't eligible this spring).
Finalists: Michael Pittman Jr. (USC), CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma)

Doak Walker Award (best RB): Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State
Playing at 8-4 Oklahoma State, Chuba Hubbard didn't get much national attention, but he was absolutely dominant in 2019. He led the country in rushing yards, finishing the year with 1,936, while tying for second with 21 rushing touchdowns. He did all that despite operating behind a mediocre offensive line, particularly compared to what Jonathan Taylor ran behind at Wisconsin, or J.K. Dobbins at Ohio State. Hubbard has to be considered a Heisman frontrunner entering 2020, as he isn't eligible to go pro either.
Finalists: Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin), J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State)

Davey O'Brien Award (best QB): Joe Burrow, LSU
The story of the 2019 college football season was LSU's offensive evolution and in turn, Joe Burrow's 2019 season. Burrow decided to transfer from Ohio State and take a leap of faith in the SEC with a Tiger offense that had been mired in the stone ages for years. All he did was set the SEC record for touchdowns and finished second in the nation in yards, all while completing 78 percent of his throws. He is essentially a lock to win the Heisman Trophy, capping off a year that will forever be remembered in Baton Rouge.
Finalists: Justin Fields (Ohio State), Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma)

Breakout Player of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
I don't think you could go wrong with Joe Burrow or Chuba Hubbard here, but I went Chase because the other two were already pretty established prior to 2019. Chase increased his receiving yardage from 1,200 yards, while increasing his touchdown total by 15. He went from a relatively unknown with potential to an absolute superstar, and Chase seems to only be getting better. It will be fascinating to see what he can be with even more time under his belt.
Finalists: Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma State), Joe Burrow (LSU), Omar Bayless (Arkansas State), Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis)

Freshman of the Year: Sam Howell, North Carolina
A major recruiting win for Mack Brown and the Tar Heels, Sam Howell did not disappoint in his first season in Chapel Hill. He was a leading force in the UNC resurgence this fall, as he finished the year with 3,347 passing yards and 36 total touchdowns, both ranking in the Top 15 nationally. He also kept his turnovers pretty limited, which is extremely impressive for a true freshman, as he had just seven interceptions. Howell capped it all off with a 401-yard, 3 TD domination of the Heels' big rival, NC State.
Finalists: Jayden Daniels (QB, Arizona State), Dillon Gabriel (QB, UCF), Gregory Rosseau (DL, Miami), Derek Stingley Jr. (CB, LSU)

Chuck Bednarik Award (Defensive Player of the Year): Chase Young, Ohio State
Even though he missed two games due to a suspension, Chase Young put together the most dominant defensive season we've seen in college football since Tyrann Matheiu in 2011. Young faced double and triple teams all season long, and still ended up as the FBS leader with 16.5 sacks. That number included some incredible individual performances, such as his three-sack game against Penn State, and his four sacks against Wisconsin in their regular season matchup. In addition to all the sacks, Young was quietly a turnover machine, forcing six fumbles on the season. I'd be shocked if he wasn't the first non-QB taken off the board in this spring's NFL Draft.
Finalists: Isaiah Simmons (Clemson), Derrick Brown (Auburn)

Jim Thorpe Award: Jeff Okudah, Ohio State
While Chase Young was causing chaos up front, it was Jeffrey Okudah who was cleaning things up in the back for the Big Ten Champion Buckeyes. Okudah would finish the season with 30 tackles, seven pass deflections and three interceptions. He was absolutely instrumental in an Ohio State defense that allowed just 12.5 points per game. I'll give Okudah the nod over the other two SEC finalists, although Grant Delpit and J.R. Reed are right there.
Finalists: Grant Delpit (LSU), J.R. Reed (Georgia)

Transfer of the Year: Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (unofficial award)
Jalen Hurts made history this past weekend when he officially became the first player in college football history to make the Playoff with two separate teams. He has put together a marvelous finale to his illustrious collegiate career, with nearly 5,000 yards of total offense and 51 total touchdowns. Hurts has brought over from Alabama the ability to close out big games, leading a thrilling comeback over Baylor, and then taking down the Bears once again in the Big 12 Championship. It will be fascinating to see what he can do in the CFB Playoff against LSU, a team he is undefeated against in his career.
Finalists: Shane Buechele (QB, SMU), Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State), Jonathan Greenard (LB, Florida), Oluwole Betiku (DE, Illinois)

Heisman: Joe Burrow, LSU
It would be an absolute shock if anybody not named Joe Burrow took home the Heisman this season. He has been the best player on the nation's best team, and his play in huge games against Alabama, Auburn and Georgia give him a whole bunch of Heisman moments to choose from. The race is really for second place here. My pick? Justin Fields, who put together a 50-1 TD-INT ratio while leading a loaded Ohio State squad.
Finalists: Justin Fields (Ohio State), Chase Young (Ohio State), Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma)

Other Minor Award Picks
Broyles Award (best assistant): Joe Brady, LSU
John Mackey Award (best TE): Harrison Bryant, Florida Atlantic
Lou Groza Award (best K): Keith Duncan, Iowa
Outland Trophy (best interior linemen): Penei Sewell, Oregon
Paul Hornung Award (most versatile): Lynn Bowden Jr., Kentucky
Ray Guy Award (best punter): Sterling Hofrichter, Syracuse
Rimington Trophy (best center): Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin
Ted Hendricks Award (best DE): Chase Young, Ohio State
Group of Five Heisman: Jarrett Patterson, Buffalo

Thursday, December 5, 2019

College Football Picks 2019: Week Fifteen (Championship Week)

Charlie Brewer, Baylor
Current Picks Record: 80-32 (7-8 Upset)
SEC Championship: (#4) Georgia Bulldogs vs. (#2) LSU Tigers
Playoff hopes are on the line down in Atlanta for both of these SEC teams. LSU probably is in even with a loss, but they'd love to take back the No. 1 spot they held for so many weeks. On the other hand, the Bulldogs will need to win to find their way into the four-team field. It will be fascinating to watch Heisman frontrunner Joe Burrow and the rest of the explosive Tiger offense go up against one of the nation's premier defenses. Burrow has been so good all season long, and his receiver group is tough to handle for any secondary. They can hit you with speed and downfield potential (Ja'Marr Chase) as well as size and excellent route running (Justin Jefferson), so the Georgia secondary is going to need to be prepared. They have a lot of proven veterans in the back-end, with J.R. Reed and Richard LeCounte, so this is going to be a really competitive showdown. LSU can also throw in Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who proved just how important he is to this Tiger offense with his play in the Alabama game. He faces one of the best rush defenses anywhere, in a Bulldog group that plays with a lot of ferocity and speed. I still think LSU is going to be able to move the ball, but it isn't crazy to think this is the best defensive group they've seen all year, so it won't be easy. The bigger questions for Georgia are on the offensive side. Jake Fromm has been up-and-down at times in 2019, but he is a guy who plays his best in big moments, and I think he will be ready for the big stage. He was terrific in last year's SEC Championship, but can he get things going in this one? This LSU defense has unquestionable talent, but it hasn't always showed up on the field. The secondary is particularly strong, so it should be confident. Georgia is still waiting for a real No. 1 guy to emerge on the outside, and it hurts that impressive freshman George Pickens will miss the first half. He can really add an interesting element on the perimeter, but was ejected in the Georgia Tech game for fighting. The Bulldogs will need someone like Lawrence Cager or Demtris Robertson to open things up. What is also concerning for UGA is the health of running back D'Andre Swift. He really has been a consistent weapon for much of 2019 for the 'Dawgs, but was beat up in the Tech win. He is currently listed as questionable, so it wouldn't be surprising if Georgia turns to Zamir White or Brian Herrien often. They should be able to find success, because this is a real questionable Tiger defensive front, that got smoked by Ole Miss a few weeks ago. The Bulldogs have to be hopeful they can get things going there, and Fromm has a successful afternoon. Yet, the absences could be notable, and they are going to have to play their "A" game to overcome the top-ranked Tigers. I also have some questions about the sideline for UGA. Kirby Smart has won a lot of games in Athens, but he hasn't coached the best in the brightest lights. I just don't know if there is enough there for the Bulldogs to take this one.
The Pick: LSU, 34 Georgia, 27

Big Ten Championship: (#1) Ohio State Buckeyes vs. (#8) Wisconsin Badgers
Nobody has been able to stop Ohio State in their dominant 2019 campaign so far, but the Wisconsin Badgers hope to change that in Indianapolis. Stopping all the pieces the Buckeye offense can throw at you is a stiff challenge for any defense, even one that is traditionally as strong as the Badgers. Wisconsin does have a stacked linebacker corps that includes Jack Sanborn, Chris Orr and Zack Baun, but they must find a way to slow down J.K. Dobbins. Michigan learned this past weekend just how difficult that is, as Dobbins ran all over them to the tune of four touchdowns. The way the star tailback is playing, it would be crazy if he was left away from New York as a Heisman finalist. Ohio State also flaunts a stud QB in Justin Fields, although his health is a little bit of a concern. He took a scary shot in the Michigan game, and while he recovered, it has to be a little bit concerning. I expect Ohio State is going to have him a little bit less aggressive as a runner, which is when he is playing his best. Fields is still an excellent decision-maker with the football, which is going to be vital against a Wisconsin defense that knows how to create turnovers. As notable as the question of Dobbins is for Wisconsin, I have bigger questions about whether they can contain all these Buckeye wide outs. Chris Olave, K.J. Hill, and Binjamin Victor can all hurt you in a variety of ways, and the Badger secondary has struggled with consistency. On the other side of the ball, the Badgers have to find a way to move the ball against an OSU defense that has been really good itself. They are an experienced, athletic and aggressive group, and they feature the best defender in the country, Chase Young. The defensive end has been basically unstoppable this year, and he should demand plenty of attention. This is a good Wisconsin O-Line, per usual, but they aren't used to seeing the type of athletes the Buckeyes can throw at you. Beyond Young, linebackers Malik Harrison and Baron Browning can really get after the quarterback. I expect that Jack Coan is going to have to make throws under pressure, or get it out quick. Coan has been real solid all season for the Badgers, but this is the fastest defense he has seen all season. It helps to have Jonathan Taylor to give the ball off to, and the Doak Walker Award finalist has been humming along. This won't be a defense that gives up much opportunities on the ground, but I still have confidence Taylor will be able to do something. The major question I have for Wisconsin is whether they can create enough explosive plays to keep up with OSU for sixty minutes. Guys like Aaron Cruickshank and A.J. Taylor can make things happen, but will it be enough? I like Wisconsin to be competitive, but this is another situation where I just don't think they quite have enough to come out victorious. The Buckeyes look like the best all-around team in the country, and they are just playing too well to pick against.
The Pick: Ohio State, 30 Wisconsin, 21

Big 12 Championship: (#6) Oklahoma Sooners vs. (#7) Baylor Bears
Even though both teams sit on the outside looking in when it comes to the CFB Playoff, things could work out where one is able to find a way into the field. Oklahoma won this matchup the first time, although they had to come back from a 28-3 deficit. They haven't been playing great football as of late, but having quarterback Jalen Hurts is still an advantage. Hurts has 50 total touchdowns in his final collegiate season, and a whole host of options to work with. He was tremendous down the stretch in their previous battle and Baylor has to find a way to slow him down for the entire sixty minutes. Beyond Hurts, the Sooners can trot out a host of options at running back and at receiver. In the backfield, Kennedy Brooks and Rhamondre Stevenson are an absolute load to handle, while Biletnikoff Award finalist CeeDee Lamb opens things up on the perimeter. This is a Bears team that should be able to stop the run with their defensive front, but their secondary is more of a concern. Do they have the pieces necessary to contain Lamb? The good news is that the Baylor offense should be able to keep up, even if they don't have Hurts under center. Charlie Brewer is one heck of a quarterback himself, but he has to stay consistent through the entire game. After a hot start to the last game with the Sooners, he really struggled down the stretch. The Bears don't have quite the offensive weapons Oklahoma does, but backs John Lovett and JaMychal Hasty can still make plays, as well as wideout Denzel Mims. On defense, Oklahoma began the year with significant improvement, but they've had real issues as of late. The secondary remains incredibly streaky from week to week, and the pass rush is hit-or-miss. Coordinator Alex Grinch has helped, and he devised a gameplan last time against Baylor that worked as well as it needed to. I think the Bears will try to be more creative in what they do to mix things up. I think this game is going to end up in a similar manner as last matchup. It should be a very close one, but I still think Hurts gives OU the edge. Even with the defensive issues, I'm rolling with the four-time (soon to be five) reigning Big 12 Champs.
The Pick: Oklahoma, 40 Baylor, 35

Other Picks
ACC Championship: (#3) Clemson, 38 (#23) Virginia, 24
American Athletic Championship: (#17) Memphis, 34 (#20) Cincinnati, 28
Conference USA Championship: Florida Atlantic, 27 UAB, 23
MAC Championship: Central Michigan, 26 Miami (Ohio), 20
Mountain West Championship: (#19) Boise State, 31 Hawaii, 21
Pac-12 Championship: (#5) Utah, 28 (#13) Oregon, 24
Sun Belt Championship: (#21) Appalachian State, 35 Louisiana, 27

Friday, November 29, 2019

College Football Picks 2019: Week Fourteen

Current Picks Record: 74-30 (6-8 Upset)
(#12) Wisconsin Badgers @ (#8) Minnesota Golden Gophers
Rashod Bateman & Tyler Johnson, Minnesota
The Big Ten West all comes down to this, as Minnesota hopes to keep Paul Bunyan's Axe in Minneapolis in College GameDay's first ever visit to campus. An explosive aerial attack has been crucial to the surprising campaign for the Gophers, with QB Tanner Morgan getting better each week. He was beat up following the Iowa game, but looked fine this past weekend. He has a formidable 1-2 punch to work with at receiver in Tyler Johnson & Rashod Bateman, who pose a difficult challenge for a solid Badger secondary. Bateman in particular has played his best football in the biggest moments, while Johnson will hope to conclude his Minnesota career on a high note. With that being said, it was actually Minnesota's ground game that fueled their upset of Wisconsin last fall. A heavy dose of Rodney Smith & Shannon Brooks, also playing their final home game with the Gophers, should be expected. It won't be easy getting anything against this Wisconsin rush defense, which remains top-notch, led by a deep and experienced linebacker corps. The Minnesota offensive line is going to have to have a good game, as they've struggled to remain consistent throughout 2019. On the other side of the ball, the Gopher defense faces an obvious challenge against Jonathan Taylor. They did a good job containing Taylor in this matchup a season ago, but the rush defense has been inconsistent. A healthy Kamal Martin, who has dealt with various injuries throughout the second half of the year, will be vital for Minnesota. Even if Taylor is able to get this offense going, Jack Coan is going to have to make some big throws. Coan has been rock-solid all season long, but this is a tough Gopher secondary to throw against. Antoine Winfield Jr. in particular is a real ball-hawk who was instrumental in the Penn State upset. Wisconsin will do all they can to attack the defense in other ways, so guys like Coney Durr and Jordan Howden are going to have to step up. It will be fascinating to see how the Badgers try to open things up; they've used jet sweeps and other gadget plays this season more frequently than in year's past. A.J. Taylor in particular is a guy they like to use in a variety of different ways, along with Aaron Cruickshank. They did have some issues with turnovers doing so last weekend against Purdue, which can't happen against a Gopher team that knows how to capitalize off them. All in all, this is an extremely difficult game for me to pick. As a long-time Gopher fan, I may be biased, but this is an undoubtedly a strong Badger team that also wants revenge for last year's loss. I lean Minnesota only because of the home field advantage, but the rush defense has to show up if they want to take home the victory.
The Pick: Minnesota, 27 Wisconsin, 24

(#1) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#13) Michigan Wolverines
Michigan's Playoff hopes have been extinguished for weeks now, but the Wolverines still play the role of spoiler in this year's edition of "The Game." This Michigan team is playing their best football of the season after the slow start to 2019. An offense that really struggled to get things going is trending up at the right time. Quarterback Shea Patterson especially is playing with a lot more confidence and comfortability. It has also helped that the Wolverine ground game has been humming along, as well as the emergence of wide outs Nico Collins and Ronnie Bell. That offense will be have to execute for the entire sixty minutes, because this Buckeyes team isn't slowing down either. Both sides of the ball are dominating, including a defense that was question mark for a big chunk of 2018. Not only is Chase Young the most dominant defender in the sport, Ohio State also features a physical, well-rounded secondary. Jeffrey Okudah, a finalist for the Jim Thorpe Award, has been crucial in a couple of OSU's big wins, and he'll be tasked with taking on Bell in this one. On offense, Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins are an imposing duo in this backfield. Fields is a tall task for any defense he plays as a dual threat with a huge arm that simply doesn't turn the ball over. He hasn't seen a defense that is quite as aggressive as Michigan yet this year, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the pass rush. The matchup between Dobbins and the Wolverine rush defense is also going to be well worth a watch. After their rough start to the season, Michigan has found a way to slow down opposing rushing attacks, but Dobbins is a different breed. If that isn't enough, Ohio State can also hit you with their playmakers on the outside, namely K.J. Hill and Chris Olave. Stopping all these offensive weapons hasn't been accomplished by any team yet this season. However, UM has been preparing all season long for this offense, and I'm sure Jim Harbaugh and Don Brown will have them hungry and ready to go. The momentum the Wolverines are playing with this should make this is a competitive game, and at some point Harbaugh is going to find a way to down the Buckeyes. But, I just don't think this is the year. This Ohio State team is just playing too good of football, and they should still be able to get the job done in Ann Arbor.
The Pick: Ohio State, 34 Michigan, 24

(#5) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#15) Auburn Tigers
Much like Michigan, Auburn has a chance to ruin their rival's season this Saturday, as a win would certainly knock Alabama out of the Playoff conversation. The Tigers still remain an extremely streaky team, but there is no denying their talent. On offense, true freshman quarterback Bo Nix continues to mature, while the ground attack is still finding their groove. "Boobie" Whitlow and D.J. Williams have had their moments, but they will have to really be running hard to get this Auburn offense rolling. The good news is that this Alabama rush defense is the weakest they have had in recent memory, with a load of injuries throughout the front seven. On the outside, the Tide also have to find a way to contain budding star Seth Williams, along with speed demon Anthony Schwartz. This is a good Alabama secondary, headlined by Trevon Diggs and Patrick Surtain Jr., but it was also the group that was shredded by Joe Burrow & LSU. Bo Nix is no Burrow, but he still has shown he can move the ball down the field when he gets adequate protection. The real strength for Auburn, however, is not their offense but their defense, a real change-of-pace for them under Gus Malzahn. The defensive line in particular is among the best in the entire nation, including future NFL contributors Derrick Brown, Nick Coe and Marlon Davidson. This pass rush presents a real challenge for Alabama backup Mac Jones, who has thrust into the starting role at QB after Tua Tagovailoa's injury. Jones has done an admirable job replacing the superstar signal-caller, and it helps that he is surrounded by NFL-caliber talent at wide out. Despite the fact that he was robbed off being a Biletnikoff Award finalist, DeVonta Smith will open up the offense on the perimeter, while tailback Najee Harris grinds up the middle. Beyond the D-Line, the defense has had its moments, but there is a lot of speed and explosiveness to contain. Coordinator Kevin Steele is well-respected in the league, but he will need his defense to tackle in space and force mistakes. I'm really intrigued to see what they can bring to the table beyond an elite pass rush. Taking a backup into the Iron Bowl on the Plains is going to be daunting for any program, but this is Alabama, and they'll perform. If the rest of the offense is up for it, the Tide should still find a way to put up enough points. That should be enough, unless Nix suddenly takes a turn.
The Pick: Alabama, 35 Auburn, 30

Other Picks
Texas A&M @ (#2) LSU: LSU, 42 Texas A&M, 28
(#7) Oklahoma @ (#21) Oklahoma State: Oklahoma, 41 Oklahoma State, 36
(#3) Clemson @ South Carolina: Clemson, 38 South Carolina, 17
Oregon State @ (#14) Oregon: Oregon, 33 Oregon State, 28
Upset: Kansas State, 27 Iowa State, 21

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

College Football Bowl Projections 2019

Zack Moss, Utah
College Football Playoff Bowls

Peach Bowl: (1) LSU Tigers vs. (4) Utah Utes 
Notes: The field to select from for the final Playoff spot will most likely come down to a battle between a one-loss Big 12 Champion Oklahoma, one-loss Pac-12 Champion Utah Utes, and a one-loss Alabama. I think there is a chance the Committee talks themselves into Alabama at four, but Utah makes the most sense to me. They're playing the best football of the trio, and their lone loss to USC doesn't look terrible in retrospect.
Fiesta Bowl: (2) Ohio State Buckeyes vs. (3) Clemson Tigers
Notes: Ohio State has a chance to overtake LSU for the No. 1 spot, depending on how they finish up against Michigan and then the Big Ten Championship. However, the most likely scenario is they end up taking on Clemson in the semifinal, a team that blanked them in their last Playoff berth.

Remaining New Year's Six Bowls

Sugar Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Notes: A loss in the 2017-18 Playoff to Georgia should serve as motivation for Oklahoma if they don't earn a Playoff bid. Jalen Hurts will get a chance to come away victorious once more against the Bulldogs.

Rose Bowl: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks
A shocking loss to Arizona State this past weekend ended Oregon's Playoff hopes, but they would still settle for the Rose Bowl in Mario Cristobal's second year in Eugene. This would be the second Rose for Penn State in four seasons, and fourth straight New Year's Six.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Notes: After a lethargic 2-2 start to 2019, Virginia Tech has been playing great football down the stretch, and looks like they could take the ACC Coastal. It won't be easy going up against Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, who needs to absolutely smash Auburn in the Iron Bowl to have any shot at the Playoff.

Cotton Bowl: Memphis Tigers vs. Baylor Bears
Notes: Memphis earns the NY6 bid given to the one Group of Five team, but they'll likely have to beat a one-loss Cincinnati in the AAC Championship to do so. Baylor has a chance for vengeance against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship, but it's more likely they enter the postseason 11-2.

The Rest

Bahamas Bowl: Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Notes:After two bowls in their history prior to 2016, Eastern Michigan has a chance at their third in the Chris Creighton era. Western Kentucky has had a resurgent 2019 in Tyson Helton's first season, likely to end the year 8-4.

Frisco Bowl: SMU Mustangs vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
Notes: A loss this Saturday to Navy likely knocks SMU down a few pegs into the Frisco Bowl, where they'll meet a C-USA squad. Sonny Dykes' team still has a chance at double-digit victories, which would be a notable success in Year Two.

New Mexico Bowl: Charlotte 49ers vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Notes: Charlotte is bowl eligible for the first time in their history, going 6-5 so far this year. They'll likely face a quality Mountain West team, with San Diego State a good chance.

Cure Bowl: Temple Owls vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
Notes: An AAC-Sun Belt matchup here, with both teams sitting at 7-4 at the moment.

Boca Raton Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos vs. Tulane Green Wave
Notes: The slight favorite in the MAC West right now, it will be fascinating to see where they end up playing this postseason. Tulane is trending down, but still retains bowl eligibility.

Camellia Bowl: Buffalo Bulls vs. Georgia State Panthers
Notes: Georgia State already made waves by shocking Tennessee to begin 2019, and they've followed it up with a 7-4 record, earning them a chance to meet a MAC foe here.

Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State Broncos vs. Washington State Cougars
Notes: Boise still has a chance at a New Year's Six bowl if some losses happen in front of them, but the more likely outcome is a Las Vegas Bowl. It has been an up-and-down 2019 for Wazzu but at 6-5, they're bowl bound.

New Orleans Bowl: Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Notes: Even at 10-1 and equipped with two Power Five victories (UNC, South Carolina), Appalachian State's ceiling is a relatively unimportant bowl. Louisiana Tech could still be an interesting matchup as one of the best in the C-USA.

Gasparilla Bowl: UCF Knights vs. Florida Atlantic Owls
Notes: Two of the top Group of Five programs in the country collide here, as UCF's three losses means no New Year's Six this year. Could this be Lane Kiffin's final game with FAU? He will be rumored for a variety of jobs this coaching carousel.

Hawaii Bowl: BYU Cougars vs. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Notes: BYU has already accepted their invitation to travel to Hawaii to take part in this one, likely to face off with the local host Rainbow Warriors, who own two Power Five wins (Oregon State, Arizona).

Independence Bowl: Florida State Seminoles vs. Liberty Flames
Notes: In just their first season as an official FBS program, Liberty is 6-5 and continues to make strides under controversial head coach Hugh Freeze. They could continue to add to their momentum against an FSU squad playing hard under interim head coach Odell Haggins.

Quick Lane Bowl: UNC Tar Heels vs. Michigan State Spartans
Notes: After taking over a Tar Heel team that was 2-9 in 2018, Mack Brown has UNC one win away from a bowl berth. They'll be favored against a Michigan State team that needs to beat Maryland this weekend to get to 6-6.

Pinstripe Bowl: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Notes: Dave Clawson continues to work his magic at Wake Forest, as he has the Demon Deacons set to appear in their fourth straight bowl game. They'll face a Big Ten opponent, possibly Lovie Smith's Fighting Illini.

Military Bowl: Florida International Panthers vs. Navy Midshipmen
Notes: Navy still has a chance to take the AAC West if Memphis were to lose this weekend to Cincinnati. If not, they'll settle for a Military Bowl matchup, which could pit them up against a FIU team who just beat Miami.

Texas Bowl: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Notes: A brutal schedule means A&M will likely finish the 2019 regular season 7-5. However, a victory over their former Big 12 foe could earn them plenty of momentum heading into 2020 and beyond.

Holiday Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Notes: Arizona State's stunner of Oregon this Saturday ended a four-game skid, and likely bought them a berth in the Holiday Bowl. Led by freshman QB Jayden Daniels, they could end the season on fire.

Cheez-It Bowl: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Wyoming Cowboys
Notes: Although normally reserved for a Big 12-Pac 12 matchup, Wyoming gains a spot as a replacement here. If this were to happen, it would be a duel between two former NDSU coaches, Chris Klieman at K-State and Craig Bohl at Wyoming.

Camping World Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Texas Longhorns
Notes: Two storied programs land in a December 28th bowl. Disappointing for both teams, but Texas could still end their year with a win this upcoming weekend against Texas Tech.

First Responder Bowl: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Notes: TCU will need to beat West Virginia to earn bowl eligibility this season, which would be a major success considering the adversity they've faced at the quarterback position.

Music City Bowl: Louisville Cardinals vs. UAB Blazers
Notes: Louisville has really looked good in head coach Scott Satterfield's first season, but it would be interesting to see who they would play. Usually this spot would be go to an SEC team, but a replacement may be chosen, such as UAB.

Redbox Bowl: Indiana Hoosiers vs. California Golden Bears
Notes: Even though they were unable top either Penn State or Michigan the last two weeks, Indiana has been a good story in 2019. Cal's offensive struggles have hindered them over the second half of the year, but their defense still makes them a tough out.

Belk Bowl: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Notes: A loss to Virginia Tech last Saturday ended Pittsburgh's ACC Coastal hopes, but they should still find their way into a favorable bowl. Mississippi State will have to win their annual meeting with Ole Miss to make the postseason.

Sun Bowl: Washington Huskies vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Notes: Virginia could still play their way into a New Year's Six, but I think the history against V. Tech drops them to the Sun Bowl. Washington has struggled to find consistency on both sides of the ball, but they still have loads of talent.

Liberty Bowl: Ohio Bobcats vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Notes: Even playing a converted wide out at quarterback, Kentucky will return to bowl season for the third straight season. The Liberty Bowl seems around their range, and they have a range of possibilities for opponents.

Arizona Bowl: Nevada Wolfpack vs. Georgia Southern Eagles
Notes: Georgia Southern owns a signature win (Appalachian State), and they went toe-to-toe with Minnesota earlier on the year. They'll be a tough battle for a streaky Nevada squad.

Alamo Bowl: USC Trojans vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Notes: A nice end to the season looks like it will earn USC a quality bowl berth. They still have a chance to play in the Pac-12 Championship Game if Utah were to lose this upcoming weekend against Colorado.

Outback Bowl: Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Auburn Tigers
Notes: Minnesota still has the Big Ten West and an outside shot at the Playoff to play for, while Auburn's role this rivalry week is more of a spoiler, as they square off against Alabama.

Citrus Bowl: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Florida Gators
Notes: Two elite defenses would collide if this projection held. Wisconsin still has a chance to play their way into a Big Ten Championship Game but already left with two losses, a Playoff appearance is pretty much out of the question.

Birmingham Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Miami Hurricanes
Notes: Cincinnati could play Memphis in consecutive weeks, which will essentially decide if they're able to make a New Year's Six Bowl. Depending on what happens, landing in the Birmingham Bowl is likely, against a replacement team.

Gator Bowl: Michigan Wolverines vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Notes: After a disastrous start to 2019 that included losses to Georgia State and BYU, Tennessee is trending up, with a good shot to finish the regular season 7-5. On the other side, Michigan's season could change if they stun Ohio State, but that's unlikely.

Idaho Potato Bowl: Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Utah State Aggies
Notes: Gary Andersen has put together a solid debut in his return to Utah State, and they'll meet a MAC team in the Idaho Potato Bowl. Sitting at 7-4, it could certainly be the Chippewas of Central Michigan.

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force Falcons vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Notes: Nebraska is yet another team that would need to win their season finale to earn a spot in the postseason. They'd get Air Force, who would be a really tough matchup for their defense.

Mobile Bowl: Miami (Ohio) Redhawks vs. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Notes: Miami (Ohio) will represent the East Division in the MAC Championship, before playing in likely either the Idaho Potato Bowl or the Mobile Bowl. Louisiana is also likely a conference championship participant, as they should win the Sun Belt West.




Friday, November 22, 2019

College Football Picks 2019: Week Thirteen

K.J. Hamler, Penn State
Current Picks Record: 68-28 (6-7 Upset)
(#8) Penn State Nittany Lions @ (#2) Ohio State Buckeyes
The last three seasons, Ohio State-Penn State have given us some of the most exciting games of the college football season, and games that have essentially decided the Big Ten East. That should be the case once again this Saturday, as the winner will assert themselves as the favorite in the division, and in turn, the conference. The Buckeyes are the clear favorite, playing terrific football on both sides of the ball, well Penn State has been up-and-down the last few weeks. Containing Ohio State's explosive offense will be a stiff challenge for the Nittany Lions. Justin Fields remains a serious Heisman candidate, playing extremely confident behind center and boasting a 31-1 TD-INT ratio. He is joined in the backfield by Doak Walker Award candidate J.K. Dobbins, who has responded to a disappointing sophomore season by rushing for 1,289 yards so far in 2019. Ohio State is really good at finding ways to get both of their top weapons comfortable and confident, and Fields has a ton on the outside to work with. Receivers Chris Olave, K.J. Hill and Binjimen Victor are a load to handle for any defense, but especially for a Penn State secondary that has really struggled as of late. If Penn State has any chance of keeping OSU in check, it will have to start with a pass rush that has seemingly disappeared. Yetur Gross-Matos, Shaka Toney and Robert Windsor have to find a way to create chaos, which simply hasn't happened against Minnesota & Indiana. On offense, Penn State has loads of talent, but they've been incredibly streaky. Quarterback Sean Clifford has had his moments, but he can't turn the ball over if the Nittany Lions want to pull the upset. It would also help if PSU receivers could hold on to the ball, as they've struggled with drops all season. The rushing attack has been handled by a committee this season for Penn State, although Journey Brown and Noah Cain have separated themselves from the group. James Franklin is hopeful Cain can go in this one, after missing the last few games. He is the guy this offense likes to lean on when they're struggling to get things going. K.J. Hamler is also going to get opportunities to open things up, and he was dominant against the Buckeyes last fall. He is the top priority for this Ohio State defense. Another important thing to watch: Chase Young. The most dominant defender in college football is back from his suspension and should be extra motivated. He basically won this one for the Buckeyes in 2018 with a huge tackle for loss, and the PSU O-Line has to be ready. Penn State is a good football team, and I think they have enough on offense to keep things interesting. With that being said, the Buckeyes are the most well-rounded team in college football, and they get the Nittany Lions at home. They shouldn't have much difficulty pulling away here.
The Pick: Ohio State, 38 Penn State, 27

(#13) Michigan Wolverines @ Indiana Hoosiers
Even though this season has been somewhat of a disappointment in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines enter the final two weeks of the season poised as a spoiler. A win this weekend in Bloomington could provide them with the momentum they need to take down Ohio State at home next weekend. The thing is, this Indiana team is the best they've had in some time, and they aren't going to be a pushover. The Hoosier offense is actually extremely underrated, with a lot of ways to move the ball. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has been a revelation in 2019, but an injury to his shoulder forces Indiana to turn to veteran Peyton Ramsey. Ramsey is a solid quarterback and a dual threat that could give this Michigan defense some issues. He is aided by tailback Stevie Scott, as well as wide out Whop Philyor. Philyor is working with his way through the concussion protocol, but if he is healthy, the Hoosiers have a real weapon that can hurt defenses in a variety of ways. Head coach Tom Allen is also well known for trying creative things to engineer yards, so the Wolverine defense will have to be properly prepared. The good news for UM is that their defense has been playing wonderful after a slow start to the season, particularly their secondary. Their offense also has been playing with more confidence, finally starting to gel under new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. Quarterback Shea Patterson in particular is really starting to get things going. He is coming off a 384-yard, 4 touchdown performance against a really good Michigan State defense, and he'll have chances against the Hoosiers. Ronnie Bell and Nico Collins have emerged as elite playmakers on the perimeter, while the ground game has a variety of options to pound the ball with. It will be interesting to see whether it is Zach Charbonnet, Hassan Haskins or Tru Wilson getting the bulk of the carries. I also think that special teams is going to be a more important component of this matchup than most realize. Michigan has had issues with kicking in the past, which can't happen here if they want to avoid a possible upset. The Wolverines have escaped Bloomington with close victories in the past, but it seems like Indiana is due a win at some point. I think it should be a close game, but the absence of Penix for the Hoosiers swings this in UM's favor.
The Pick: Michigan, 28 Indiana, 24

Texas Longhorns @ (#14) Baylor Bears
Their undefeated season may be over following last Saturday's comeback loss to Oklahoma, but Baylor still remains a Playoff candidate if they can run the table. On the other side, Texas has experienced a frustrating 2019 campaign, but could still work their way into a favorable bowl if they win their final two. Baylor is hopeful their first half offense from last weekend can carry over into this one. QB Charlie Brewer has had his moments, but he must play with confidence. The Longhorn secondary is talented, but injuries and inexperience have really plagued them. It will be a tall task stopping Brewer and the rest of the Baylor pass offense. Wide out Denzel Mims has five touchdowns in his last three games, but is probable for this one. If he does play, Baylor gets a real matchup nightmare who the Longhorns will struggle to match up against. The real key for Baylor is going to be figuring out a defense that was so good in the first half against Oklahoma, then completely collapsed. The pass rush has some really good pieces, namely James Lynch and James Lockhart, but they really lost their energy down the stretch. If they can keep things up for the entire sixty minutes and the defense can force turnovers, the Bears are going to be in a good spot. Sam Ehlinger presents a real challenge for Baylor after what Jalen Hurts did to them last weekend. Although the rest of his offense has struggled through injuries, Ehlinger has 32 total touchdowns on the year. He's a much harder runner than Hurts as well, which is going to force Baylor to tackle well in space. I think this game could turn into a shootout with the weapons both teams can throw at you, and the way these types of November Big 12 games can turn out. I lean Baylor because of the home crowd factor, but this Texas team is probably better than a 6-4 team. I think they could end the season playing really strong football.
The Pick: Baylor, 35 Texas, 31

Other Picks
UCLA @ (#23) USC: USC, 34 UCLA, 24
(#6) Oregon @ Arizona State: Oregon, 30 Arizona State, 20
Arkansas @ (#1) LSU: LSU, 52 Arkansas, 21
Texas A&M @ (#4) Georgia: Georgia, 35 Texas A&M, 17
Upset: Utah State, 28 Boise State, 24



Friday, November 15, 2019

College Football Picks 2019: Week Twelve

Current Picks Record: 62-26 (6-6 Upset)
(#10) Oklahoma Sooners @ (#13) Baylor Bears
Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma
The Big 12 race takes center stage as undefeated Baylor looks to stay perfect against Oklahoma, who remains on the outside looking in for the Playoff. The Bears' resurgent 2019 campaign has been based on a stellar defense and methodical, balanced offense. However, that offense appears to be trending down, with two straight off weeks against West Virginia & TCU. Junior QB Charlie Brewer has been solid in both games, but he needs others to step up around him. The good news for Baylor is they face an OU defense that is also struggling. After a strong start to the 2019 season under new coordinator Alex Grinch, the Sooners have allowed over 40 points their last two games. They have struggled to get any pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and a secondary that was playing very well hasn't looked good as of late. It will be interesting to see whether it turns into a shootout, which would play into Oklahoma's hands. Baylor does have one of the best defenses in the Big 12, but they recently lost No. 2 tackler Clay Johnston for the season, and the Sooners can hurt you in so many ways. Jalen Hurts remains a serious Heisman candidate, and he should be able to handle an aggressive Bears' pass rush. However, for the Oklahoma offense to really be humming, their ground game actually plays a much larger role than most realize. A trio of running backs lead the way in Kennedy Brooks, Rhamondre Stevenson and Trey Sermon. Brooks ran for nearly nine yards a carry in last weekend's win over Iowa State, but Stevenson and Sermon will need to provide a change of pace. If OU can really attack Baylor on the ground, they will open up things on the outside for their real speedsters, namely Biletnikoff candidate CeeDee Lamb. As the battle of the top two teams currently inside the Big 12, this is obviously a huge game for the league and a possible Championship Game preview. Even though both teams haven't been playing great as of very recently, I think both offenses should have a good night. It could come down to who is able to execute better and not turn the ball over. I trust Oklahoma slightly more in this regard, and I think they find a way to end Baylor's perfect season, even on the road.
The Pick: Oklahoma, 38 Baylor, 34

(#4) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#12) Auburn Tigers
After their win two weekends ago over Florida, Georgia now appears to be in control of the SEC East. They hope to avoid a slip-up on the Plains against Auburn, who plays an interesting spoiler role, with both UGA and Alabama still remaining on the schedule. Georgia's offense still lacks consistency, and now they have to find a way to put up points against a very stout Auburn D. It is hard to know what you are going to get each and every week from Jake Fromm. With that being said, Fromm has traditionally played better against his best opponents, and the receiver corps is really starting to emerge in Athens. Former Miami transfer Lawrence Cager in particular has really been crucial to this offense as of late, although he is probable in this one. It is hard to imagine any Auburn defensive back being able to contain the 6'5" matchup nightmare. Freshman George Pickens is coming off a two-touchdown showing against Missouri, and it will be fascinating to see how the Bulldogs plan to use him here. UGA will really need their offensive line to play well, as they face down a superb defensive line. They'll also be tasked with openings things up for D'Andre Swift as well. Utilizing the play-action pass will be pivotal in opening up routes for this offense, and give Fromm some huge windows to work with. On the other side of the ball, Georgia's defense continues to play terrific, as they've held Kentucky and Mizzou under 200 yards twice in the last three games. They've been especially elite in stopping the run, and a really strong linebacker corps is the reason. Guys like Monty Rice, Tae Crowder and Azeez Ojulari have been huge. Ojulari, who wasn't even very high up on the depth chart to begin 2019, is also important as a pass rusher. If the Bulldog rush defense continues their recent play, it is hard to imagine Auburn being able to move the ball. They really use the ground attack to set things up for freshman QB Bo Nix, and it is hard to see them getting anything easy here. I expect Gus Malzahn to try and be creative to open things up on the ground with different read options and sweep plays. Even so, Nix is going to have to make some big throws, which he has really struggled to do in important games, with the exception of the Oregon victory. A veteran UGA secondary will be very eager to try and force turnovers, even with one of their top corners, Tyson Campbell, nursing a toe injury. I still do like this Auburn offense a lot, but I just don't think they have enough to get things going against Georgia. If Fromm does again have another great showing in a big game, Georgia should win pretty comfortably, and continue to strengthen their Playoff resume.
The Pick: Georgia, 28 Auburn, 20

(#23) Navy Midshipmen @ (#16) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Even though this Navy-Notre Dame rivalry game doesn't have any Playoff implications with the Irish essentially eliminated, it is still important for both teams. ND still has a chance for a New Year's Six bowl, as does Navy, as they sit at 7-1 and remain a genuine threat to be the Group of Five representative. Per usual, Navy is led by their triple-option offense, which has allowed them to average 358 yards rushing per game, and over 40 PPG. Quarterback Malcolm Perry is the main instrument in this offense, a tremendous athlete who knows how to make terrific reads. He really is a touchdown machine, with nine touchdowns in the last five games. The rest of the Midshipmen offense consists of fullbacks Nelson Smith & Jamale Carothers, as well as some under-the-radar receivers. Navy's triple-option is always going to be tough to stop, but this Irish defense should be well-equipped to contain them. They are really strong and experienced across their front seven, and defensive coordinator Clark Lea has done a fine job. I think they should do just enough to make things difficult for Navy. I still believe the Midshipmen are going to have to make some throws to really pull off this type of upset. Perry has been okay through the air, and sophomore Mychal Cooper is a big play threat, averaging nearly 27 yards per catch. Even with stud safety Alohi Gilman (who just happens to be a Navy transfer), I'm not sure how must I trust this ND secondary, even against a weak pass offense. However, far more questionable is the Notre Dame offense, which has been unbelievably inconsistent for much of the year. They looked pretty good this past Saturday against Duke, but really struggled against Michigan and Virginia Tech, combining for 35 points in total. Quarterback Ian Book is a steady veteran, but he has really had a tough time throwing downfield. He does have a superb wide out in Chase Claypool, but others are going to have to step up. That includes the running back situation, which simply hasn't been that great lately. Tony Jones Jr. had three straight games eclipsing 100 yards, but has totaled just 28 the last two weekends. Either he is going to have to get things going, or the Irish are going to have to try something different. The Midshipmen defense is consistently very strong, so I think a low-scoring affair should be in order. I like this Navy team a lot, and I think they have a real shot at taking down ND for just the second time since 2010. Yet, I think the Irish defense is going to have a good game, and going into South Bend and coming out victorious is a lot to ask. I'll stick with Notre Dame to come out in a close game without much points being added to the scoreboard.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 21 Navy, 17

Other Picks
(#8) Minnesota @ (#20) Iowa: Minnesota, 28 Iowa, 27
Indiana @ (#9) Penn State: Penn State, 34 Indiana, 28
Wake Forest @ (#3) Clemson: Clemson, 41 Wake Forest, 27
Arizona @ (#6) Oregon: Oregon, 31 Arizona, 21
Upset: Georgia State, 28 Appalachian State, 24

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Post-Week 11 College Football Playoff Power Rankings

Joe Burrow, LSU
An important weekend of college football that featured two undefeated matchups helped further solve the CFB Playoff picture. Now over 11 weeks into the 2019 season, we have a clear list of contenders, and have eliminated most of the "pretenders". As we transition into the home stretch with less than a month of the regular season remaining, here is how I view the top contenders.

The Four
1 LSU Tigers
For the first time since 2011, LSU was able to down the Alabama Crimson Tide, coming out victorious 46-41 this Saturday. Not only did it give the Tigers a crucial win over a fierce rival, it earned them their fourth Top 10 win of the season, a resume nobody even comes close to. Now LSU gets three very winnable games before a likely SEC Championship Game duel with Georgia. With how many statement wins they already have under their belt, it isn't unreasonable to think the Tigers could still get a Playoff berth even with a loss there.

2 Ohio State Buckeyes
After a close win over Maryland in 2018, Ohio State didn't give them any chances this year, smashing them to the tune of 73-14. It was just the latest in a long line of resounding wins, but Ohio State's resume has actually taken some hits as of late that drop them to the No. 2 spot here. Michigan State was a quality win that has seemingly fallen off the map, and the Nebraska win keeps getting worse. The good news for the Buckeyes is that they still face Michigan & Penn State, both prime opportunities to bolster their resume and get the top Playoff spot.

3 Clemson Tigers
Even though they've lagged a little behind some of the other powers in the mix, Clemson still appears to be a near-lock to gain entry to their fifth straight Playoff. Following their one-point escape against UNC, the Tigers closest game has been a 35-point drubbing of Louisville. They will be heavily favored the rest of the way in the incredibly weak ACC, although it would have helped them if Wake Forest didn't lose this Saturday to Virginia Tech. The lack of quality competition inside the league hurts Clemson's likely seeding, but the Committee would still never leave out an undefeated reigning National Champion.

4 Oregon Ducks
The Pac-12 had a bad start to this college football season, but Oregon and Utah have both played their way back into the Playoff mix. Oregon especially is in a good spot, as their only loss was to Auburn, in a game where they outplayed the Tigers for a majority of the sixty minutes. The Ducks should be able to roll through their remaining regular season games (Arizona schools & Oregon State), but the Pac-12 Championship Game will be critical for their Playoff hopes. They have to hope Utah wins out and they are able to beat them convincingly.

First Four Out
5 Georgia Bulldogs
It may be easy to overlook a Georgia team that has lacked consistency for a big chunk of 2019, but the Bulldogs still remain a serious Playoff threat sitting in mid-November. They still own impressive victories over Florida and Notre Dame, with the opportunity to add to that list this weekend against Auburn. With one bad loss to South Carolina, the Bulldogs don't have a lot of room for error, as they will probably have to win out to gain entry back into the Playoff. In order to do that, the offense has to establish some consistency, although the top-notch defense keeps them in a good position.

6 Alabama Crimson Tide
Anytime Alabama loses, there is an immediate overreaction that the "Alabama dynasty is done" and "Saban has lost his touch". I don't think any of that is true, but I do think this Alabama team is in a bad spot when it comes to Playoff contention. Their best win is probably Texas A&M at this point, and the defense is a real concern, with injuries and inexperience everywhere. With that being said, the Tide are going to be in the hunt as long as Saban is on the sideline, and chaos in front of them could quickly move them back up.

7 Minnesota Golden Gophers
9-0 for the first time in over a century, Minnesota's resurgence has been one of the best stories of the 2019 season. Beating Penn State gave them a real signature win to point to, and they have opportunities to still add to that resume, as they still face Iowa & Wisconsin. Minnesota has a tradition of playing poor football against the Hawkeyes, so beating them this Saturday could really indicate this Gopher team is legit.

8 Baylor Bears
I put Baylor here at eight because its hard to ignore a 9-0 team that currently is the favorite in the Big 12 (especially with Oklahoma's recent problems), but the Bears certainly have some questions to answer. The offense has really struggled the past two weeks, needing a little bit of luck to overcome West Virginia and TCU in consecutive weeks, two teams that simply aren't very good this year. Playing Oklahoma this weekend will really tell us a lot about whether Baylor is legit, or has simply just capitalized from a breezy schedule. My guess is more of the latter, but getting the Sooners in Waco is a distinct advantage.

Just Missed the Cut
Utah Utes
Oklahoma Sooners
Penn State Nittany Lions
Florida Gators
Auburn Tigers
Michigan Wolverines
Wisconsin Badgers

Friday, November 8, 2019

College Football Picks 2019: Week Eleven

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Current Picks Record: 56-24 (5-6 Upset)
(#2) LSU Tigers @ (#3) Alabama Crimson Tide
LSU's new-look offense and Heisman frontrunner Joe Burrow face their toughest test of the 2019 season: an Alabama team that they haven't beat since 2011. Its a tall task for the Tigers, but this is not your typical LSU team. Burrow leads an explosive offense that can hit you with speed on the perimeter, and yet still pound the ball behind tailback Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Wide outs Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase really open things up on the outside, and they have an interesting matchup with this Alabama secondary. That secondary currently ranks 12th nationally in passing yards allowed, headlined by future NFL contributors such as Patrick Surtain and Xavier McKinney. Another interesting battle will be in the trenches, which is always ultra-important in these kinds of SEC slugfests. The Tiger offensive line is rock-solid, but I expect the Tide to hit with a lot of different looks and blitzes. Linebackers Anfernee Jennings and Terrell Lewis really know how to get after the opposing QB, combining for ten sacks on the season. Burrow has looked poised and in control all season, but will he be the same after taking a few shots from these hungry 'Bama linebackers? It could determine his Heisman candidacy. The Alabama offense has some question marks as they enter this one. Star signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa suffered an ankle injury in the Tennessee win, and has had two weeks to try and get it right. According to most sources, Tua is expected to play, but it isn't unreasonable to think he might be a little bit limited. Fellow offensive weapons Najee Harris and DeVonta Smith also enter this game with injury concerns, but both are listed as probable. Harris will be especially huge as the real fuel in this Tide ground attack. His powerful running really opens up things downfield for 'Bama, as well as the play-action game. The Crimson Tide are also going to feature a collection of other playmakers to throw at the Tigers, namely Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III and Jaylen Waddle. Much like LSU, they'll go up against possibly the toughest secondary they've seen on the season. The return of Grant Delpit will be huge for the Tigers, as one of the best defenders in the entire country has been beat up. He'll join up with freshman Derek Stingley Jr. and Kristian Fulton to form a ball-hawking back-end ready to get their vengeance after a weak showing against Tua last fall. It is still important to note LSU is still missing an important piece to this defense, as linebacker Michael Divinity recently announced he was taking a leave of absence from this team. A skilled tackler who really cleaned up opposing running games, Divinity might be a more important loss than most realize. Another important thing to watch is going to be special teams play. Missed field goals and field position has decided games in this rivalry before and with both teams so evenly matched on paper, it could again in 2019. I've gone back and forth on who I think will come out on top Saturday afternoon. I think that this LSU team is legit, and this could certainly be the year they are finally able to overcome Alabama. However, recent history remains on the 'Bama side, and playing in Tuscaloosca keeps them a distinct advantage.
The Pick: Alabama, 37 LSU, 34

(#4) Penn State @ (#17) Minnesota Golden Gophers
I'll admit some personal bias, as a Minnesota Gopher fan my entire life, I'm cheering for them to get what will be their biggest win in my lifetime. With that being said, I'd be silly not to recognize the team coming to Minneapolis, a Penn State team that looks like a full-fledged Playoff contender. The Nittany Lions are led by a stingy defense that knows how to get after the quarterback. A D-Line comprised of Yetur Gross-Matos, Shaka Toney and Robert Windsor will go up against a Minnesota offensive line that is talented, but wildly inconsistent. Are the Gophers going to be able to carve out any space running the football either? The Gopher offense all season has leaned on the inside zone to get them moving, but not only does PSU feature a good D-Line, they have loads of talent at linebacker as well. It is hard to imagine Minnesota being able to move the ball very effectively if they can't get their ground game going behind veteran Rodney Smith. Now, it is important to realize that Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan has been playing really good football. He has put together the best season for a Gopher QB in some time, tossing for 1,761 yards and 18 touchdowns, with just four interceptions. It has helped that he has two star playmakers on the outside, in senior Tyler Johnson and sophomore Rashod Bateman. Bateman in particular has had a breakthrough season, and going up against a good, but far from great, Nittany Lion secondary he could have a real coming-out party. Morgan is still going to have to take care of the football, because this is a Penn State team that knows how to force turnovers and convert them into points. On the other side of the ball, PSU can attack in a lot of different ways. They have a deep stable of running backs, namely freshman Noah Cain, and a 1-2 punch at wide out with K.J. Hamler and Jahan Dotson. Leading the way is quarterback Sean Clifford, who seems to be getting better each and every week. This Gopher defense doesn't get much national attention, but the secondary is Top 10 nationally. It helps that they've faced weak pass offenses, so it will be fascinating to see how they handle things. The Gopher rush defense is also going to have to step up, especially with stud linebacker Kamal Martin still likely out with a knee injury. This is an obvious golden opportunity for Minnesota to prove the detractors wrong with a huge win in front of their home fans. I think the Gophers manage to do just enough offensively to keep things competitive, but in the end, Penn State just has too much.
The Pick: Penn State, 30 Minnesota, 23

(#18) Iowa Hawkeyes @ (#13) Wisconsin Badgers
While Minnesota still leads the Big Ten West, Wisconsin and Iowa battle it out over the weekend to take control of second place in the division. Both teams feature dominant defenses and physical offensive lines, but whoever is able to make plays will come out victorious. Wisconsin has a clear advantage in this department, with a superstar in Jonathan Taylor, who has done serious damage against Iowa in his career. Even going up against a quality Iowa rush defense, Taylor will have holes to work with and should make things happen. The Badgers also have a QB who is far from perfect, but has still proven he can open up this offense when needed. Jack Coan showed what he could do against good defenses in wins over Michigan and Michigan State. The real strength of this Wisconsin team remains on the other side of the ball, where they feature an experienced, well-run unit. They are especially strong at linebacker, where Zack Baun, Jack Sanborn and Chris Orr clean up opposing offenses. Iowa does feature a nice three-person committee at running back, but they're still going to have a tough time running against the linebacker group. At quarterback, Nate Stanley is a proven winner in the Big Ten, but he is going to have to make some difficult throws. Stanley also has struggled to make plays against quality defenses, including rough times against both Michigan and Penn State. He had three interceptions against that Wolverine defense, and the Badger secondary is similar in a number of ways. Stanley is going to need some help from an Iowa receiver corps that has talent, but won't get anything easy here. With the way they've struggled against good defenses, it's hard to see Iowa really having much success here. Going into Madison and coming out with a win seems unlikely for the Hawkeyes.
The Pick: Wisconsin, 24 Iowa, 16

Other Picks
(#5) Clemson @ NC State: Clemson, 40 NC State, 20
(#15) Notre Dame @ Duke: Notre Dame, 27 Duke, 17
(#12) Baylor @ TCU: Baylor, 35 TCU, 31
Vanderbilt @ (#10) Florida: Florida, 33 Vanderbilt, 14
Upset: Texas, 38 Kansas State, 34

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Coaching Carousel 2019: Who Should Replace Head Coaches on the Hot Seat?

Chad Morris, Arkansas
While Chris Ash's dismissal at Rutgers officially started the 2019 coaching carousel, the firing this weekend of Willie Taggart really got it spinning. Taggart, who was let go after less than two seasons, shows how difficult leading a program is in modern college football, especially at a place like Florida State. Taggart will not be the last head coach to be removed as the 2019 season begins to wind down. Which positions are going to be available, and which direction will these programs go next?

Rutgers: Chris Ash (fired) Interim: Nunzio Campanile
The Scarlet Knights finally decided it was time to move on from Chris Ash, whose best record in Piscataway was a 4-8 2017. Interim coach Nunzio Campanile probably won't be brought back, so Rutgers should be starting anew with this hire. This is a tough job to sell, as whoever takes over will have to play Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State every year. It is also in a relatively weak recruiting area, especially compared to other Big Ten schools. For that reason, I think a former head coach, Greg Schiano, would make a lot of sense.
Projected Replacement: Greg Schiano (former Rutgers HC, former Ohio State DC)
Schiano is currently unemployed, but he won 67 games with Rutgers from 2001-2011, including a memorable 2006 campaign when they took down No. 3 Louisville. Schiano would probably jump at a chance to run back the "glory days", and the Scarlet Knights might not be able to afford anyone significantly better.
Other Possibility: Butch Jones (former Tennessee HC, Alabama offensive analyst)
Rutgers interviewed Butch Jones for the position this week, and he could make sense. Even though his Tennessee tenure ultimately ended in disappointment, Jones still won big at both Central Michigan and Cincinnati. He would definitely be able to recruit, something that cannot be said for the former staff.
Others: Joe Moorhead (Mississippi State HC), Lance Leipold (Buffalo HC), Major Applewhite (former Houston HC)

Florida State: Willie Taggart (fired) Interim: Odell Haggins
I thought Florida State would still give Taggart a third year despite a frustrating season. However, a bad loss to rival Miami was the final nail in the coffin, ending the Taggart era after just 21 games. Florida State boosters will have to pay a massive buyout, but that won't stop them from trying to attract some huge names to take over. Any new coach would enter with tough expectations, but a great recruiting area and some talent already in place.
Projected Replacement: Jeff Scott (Clemson co-OC)
Dabo Swinney has done a fine job keeping his coaching staff intact despite Clemson's success, but at some point the staff will have to breakup. Brent Venables is another candidate to finally take his talents elsewhere, but Scott seems like an interesting fit. His father was an assistant at FSU, and he knows this conference. Scott doesn't have head coaching experience at this level, but Swinney was in a similar spot when Clemson hired him away. He would be a fine consolation if the Seminoles aren't willing or able to take a swing at a huge name, such as Bob Stoops.
Other Possibility: Dave Clawson (Wake Forest HC)
Could FSU go inside the division to land Dave Clawson? Clawson isn't a flashy hire, but he is a guy with a resume that includes a lot of success. He came to Wake Forest from Bowling Green and has turned the Demon Deacons into a formidable program who is currently ranked. He also should be cheaper than most others FSU will look into.
Others: P.J. Fleck (Minnesota HC), Willie Fritz (Tulane HC), Jim Leavitt (Florida State analyst), Mark Stoops (Kentucky)

Arkansas: Chad Morris 
It takes time to build program, but Chad Morris has really struggled in his short time with Arkansas. A former Clemson OC who then took over at SMU, Morris is just 4-16 and has yet to win a league game. Making things even worse, the Razorbacks have some bad losses (hello, San Jose State!) and just got beat by 30 to a bad Mississippi State team. Oh, and that sub-.500 Mississippi State team put up 640 yards of total offense.
Projected Replacement: Mike Norvell (Memphis HC)
Mike Norvell has done a tremendous job continuing to lead Memphis after he took over things from Justin Fuente. The Tigers have already won the division twice under his leadership and are in the driver's seat to do it again in 2019. He is going to make the jump at some point, it is a matter of where not when. Norvell played football at Central Arkansas and was a grad assistant there, and a return close to home would be a win for the Razorbacks.
Other Possibility: Willie Fritz (Tulane HC)
Another AAC head coach ready for a promotion, Willie Fritz will be a possibility for this type of job. Fritz has built up both Georgia Southern and recently Tulane, who had won six games in the two years prior to his arrival, where he has now gone 22-24. He may still need a breakthrough season to really convince Arkansas fans, but Fritz has won everywhere he has gone and knows the region very well.
Others: Blake Anderson (Arkansas State HC), Kevin Steele (Auburn DC), Josh Huepel (UCF HC), Bill Clark (UAB HC)

USC: Clay Helton
Even though USC has dealt with a lot of adversity due to injuries this season, a 5-4 record following their 5-7 2018 simply won't cut it. Helton did have some moments, winning 21 games between 2016-2017 and the Pac-12, but the Trojans have really fallen off. There are some huge names that are going to be rumored for this type of job, namely Urban Meyer and James Franklin, but I see USC settling on somebody else at the end of the day.
Projected Replacement: Bryan Harsin (Boise State HC)
Bryan Harsin has done a terrific job leading Boise State in the post-Chris Petersen era, as the Broncos have gone 59-16 under his leadership, including two Mountain West Titles. Harsin continues to land some under-the-radar talent and develop it into NFL players, which isn't easy, even at a well-respected Group of Five school like Boise. It might be hard to pull Harsin away from his alma mater, but the right offer could bring him to Southern California. He is another guy that isn't a "flashy" hire but a smart, effective hire.
Other Possibility: Graham Harrell (USC OC)
Brought in from North Texas over the off-season following Kliff Kingsbury's abrupt departure, Graham Harrell has done a really job with this Trojan offense, as they are averaging 30.4 PPG despite playing a backup quarterback. It might make sense for 'SC to establish some continuity at this position by simply bringing in Harrell, who is going to get a head coaching gig somewhere. Harrell has learned under some respected coaches, namely Mike Leach, who he played and has coached under.
Others: Jack Del Rio (former USC LB, former Oakland Raiders HC), Jimmy Lake (Washington co-DC), Jeff Tedford (Fresno State HC), Andy Avalos (Oregon DC)

Vanderbilt: Derek Mason
Following James Franklin at a place like Vanderbilt is a lot to ask no matter who you are, and Derek Mason has done a fine job. After just seven victories in Mason's first two seasons, Vanderbilt has gone to two bowls and had their moments. However, a 2-6 start to 2019 that includes a bad loss to UNLV makes it clear this program just isn't going to get over the top with Mason. It probably is time to move on, and there are still plenty of options, even at a school without the football tradition of others in the SEC.
Projected Replacement: Clark Lea (Notre Dame DC)
Following Mike Elko's departure to take over the defensive coordinator job at Texas A&M, Clark Lea took over the Irish defense, and they've continued to be terrific. They rank highly in both points and yards allowed, and are well-known for getting after the QB with a ferocious pass rush. Lea is in line for a promotion, and it just so happens he is a Vanderbilt alum. He'd love to return to Nashville and take over a job that isn't easy, but has some potential. This is a great recruiting area, and the school's academic bonafides are obvious.
Other Possibility: Jeff Fisher (former Tennessee Titans HC)
Even though his NFL coaching career fizzled out with the St. Louis Rams, Jeff Fisher is still very popular in Nashville, as the former head man for the Tennessee Titans. In fact, there were rumors just this week he would be a top candidate for the job if Mason is indeed let go. Fisher does not have any college football coaching experience, but he could be the outside-the-box hire that ends up working out.
Others: Willie Fritz (Tulane HC), Mike MacIntrye (Ole Miss DC), Ken Niumatalolo (Navy HC)

Mississippi State: Joe Moorhead
Even though he earned a lot of respect for his work as Penn State offensive coordinator, Joe Moorhead was always a little bit of a weird hire for Mississippi State. He had no experience in the SEC, and had spent his entire coaching career in the Northeast. It hasn't made it easy Moorhead has had to follow up a Miss. State legend like Dan Mullen, but a 4-5 2019 just won't cut it anymore in Starkville, particularly with the talent on this roster. Moorhead has been rumored for the Rutgers job, which would make sense considering his ties to the region.
Projected Replacement: Todd Grantham (Florida DC)
Would Mississippi State turn back to the Dan Mullen coaching tree to go with a guy like Todd Grantham? Grantham served as associate head coach and defensive coordinator under Mullen in Starkville, prior to joining him in Gainesville. He continues to do a terrific job with the Florida defense and has a lot of experience in the SEC, spending time with Georgia as well. Going with a proven SEC guy just makes sense for Mississippi State, but it would be interesting to see if Grantham would take this job.
Other Possibility: Bill Clark (UAB HC)
Bill Clark has done an excellent job with UAB, sticking with the program during their financial problems and two-year hiatus and leading them in a brand new direction. Since UAB's return, they are 25-10 under Clark and won the Conference USA last season. As a guy with a bunch of experience coaching in the Southeast, Clark makes sense for a SEC program looking for a rising name. Pulling him away from UAB might be tough considering how committed he appears to be to the position, but dollars talk.
Others: Lane Kiffin (Florida Atlantic HC), Blake Anderson (Arkansas State HC), Mike Leach (Washington State HC), Skip Holtz (Louisiana Tech HC)

Other Jobs That Could Open
UCLA: Chip Kelly
South Florida: Charlie Strong
Ole Miss: Matt Luke
BYU: Kalani Sitake
Tennessee: Jeremy Pruitt
Arizona: Kevin Sumlin

NFL? Coaches Who Could Be Turning Pro
Brian Kelly, Notre Dame
Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma
Matt Campbell, Iowa State
Matt Rhule, Baylor
David Shaw, Stanford

Other Rising Coaches To Watch
Brent Venables, Clemson DC
Alex Grinch, Oklahoma DC
Tony Elliott, Clemson co-OC
Mike Elko, Texas A&M DC
Joe Brady, LSU Passing Game Coordinator
Jim Leonhard, Wisconsin DC
Steve Sarkisian, Alabama OC
Sean Gleeson, Oklahoma State OC