Monday, March 18, 2019

2019 Bracket Analysis: West Region

Rui Hachimura, Gonzaga
Despite a surprising loss to St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference Championship, Gonzaga earned the No. 1 seed in the West Region, playing their first action in Salt Lake City. That recent loss showcased some of the weaknesses on this Gonzaga team, such as three-point shooting and rebounding, but don't count out this Bulldogs team just yet. This team did win 30 games and go undefeated in the regular season of the WCC for a reason; they're deep and talented with veteran leadership at its core. Forwards Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke are an extremely effective 1-2 punch in the frontcourt. Hachimura is just the fifth Japanese-born player to compete in Division I basketball, and he has displayed a wide and versatile skill set. He can get to the rim, hit in the mid range and even stretch the floor with from three, hitting 47 percent from deep even though he doesn't shoot a ton of them. Yet, the most important component to any deep NCAA Tournament run is going to have to center around the backcourt. Veteran point guard Josh Perkins and shooting guard Zach Norvell Jr. will have to play well in this difficult region. Both have proven they can hit big shots, but have struggled in all of Gonzaga's losses, and can be streaky. Yet, if they are on their games, this offense has enough balance and versatility, they're going to be incredibly hard to stop. We've seen just how good the Bulldogs can be when they beat a full-strength Duke squad in Maui. They've also proven they can go deep with a similar core, when they played for a National Title in 2017. Even in such a tough region, I actually like 'Zaga to come out this region alive.

Ja Morant has quickly become a big name in the world of college hoops, attracting rave reviews from opponents and scouts alike. The explosive, Russell Westbrook-esque point guard leads the 12th-seeded Murray State Racers, who look like a possible giant killer in this side of the bracket. Morant is putting up staggering numbers, with averages of 24.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 10.0 APG, while shooting 50% from the field. He is the unquestioned leader of an explosive Murray State offense that is extremely efficient, hitting 100 or more points five separate times on the year. This Racers team also gets a very favorable draw, with fifth-seeded Marquette trending down. The Golden Eagles have lost five of six entering March Madness, and has really struggled defensively. This really looks like it has a chance to be a 5-12 upset, but even if it isn't, it will be worth tuning in to. Morant and Marquette guard Markus Howard are two of the best players in the entire nation, and can absolutely take over games at times. Watching those two duel it out in Hartford will be as good of TV as we'll get in what should be an exciting first round.

Sitting at a four seed in this field, Florida State looks like the best bet to come out of the West for any team not named Gonzaga. The Seminoles started off ACC play 1-4, but have been one of the best teams in the country down the stretch. They ended up winning 12 of their last 13 in regular season league play, with the lone exception being a loss on the road against North Carolina. Yet, they didn't get much attention behind the three eventual 1 seeds in the ACC, which makes them somewhat of a dark horse entering the Big Dance. The Seminoles don't play a necessarily pretty brand of basketball, but they don't need to. They have great size up and down their roster, play sound defense and are one of the deepest teams in all of college basketball, with the option to go ten deep if they have to. Now, its important to also realize they just happened to get an incredibly tough draw with the 13th-seeded Vermont Catamounts. Vermont, who won the America East Conference, is a strong, well-built basketball team that will be a stiff challenge in the first round. Florida State also is incredibly streaky; when they're shooting the ball well from deep they can legitimately beat anybody in the country but the moment they turn cold this team becomes a much different basketball team. All in all, use caution when picking this Florida State team. They certainly have the potential to go deep, but they also have the potential to drop their opener. This is the type of boom-or-bust team that is going to cause some real chaos in this side of the bracket.

At 19-15 and an eighth place regular season finish in the SEC, Florida doesn't exactly have a resume that inspires much confidence. Yet, sitting at a 10 seed this Gators team does look like they could be a team ready to make some noise. They've ended the year on a little bit of a run, upsetting the top seed in the SEC Tournament, LSU, in the quarterfinals before giving eventual champ Auburn all they could handle a game later. Florida also does get an extremely favorable bye, getting Nevada in their first round matchup. Nevada did return a ton of production from last year's Sweet 16 squad, but they have been trending down, unable to get past the other top teams in the Mountain West like San Diego State and Utah State. Nevada all in all owns just one non-conference victory over a team that is in the Field of 68 (11th seed Arizona State) and could struggle to put up points against a quality Gators' defense. If UF is able to find a way to get past the Wolf Pack in Round One, they present a unique challenge for No. 2 seed Michigan, who shouldn't have too much trouble with Montana. The Wolverines have been streaky offensively for much of the season, and Florida could again have the defense needed to stop them. The Gators might not have the flashy look of a team ready to make a run, but they are in a nice position to make some noise in the bottom portion of this region.

After an incredibly hot start to this season, which included a 17-0 start and wins against Villanova, UNC and Purdue, Michigan fell back to Earth a little bit in Big Ten play. Of course, a 15-5 record in the ultra-competitive Big Ten is nothing to feel bad about, and the Wolverines still did enough to lock in a two seed. They enter this Tournament as another team that has some serious boom-or-bust potential. They have a number of offensive weapons, ranging from big man Ignas Brazdeikis to exciting wings Charles Matthews and Jordan Poole, the hero of last year's NCAA Tournament. Yet, there offensive numbers aren't overwhelming this season and good defenses have proven they can stop them, such as Wisconsin or Michigan State. The Wolverines will be able to counter with their own defense, which has been dominant at times itself, allowing just over 58 PPG (currently second in the entire country). Michigan also has the advantage of experience, with a big chunk of last year's group returning after playing for a National Title. Plus, head coach John Beilein has proven himself time and time again in March, and I think he may actually be a little bit underrated at this point in his career. This Wolverines team certainly has the tools to go deep, but they are in a tough region and have some issues that could hold them back. I'm picking them to go to the Sweet 16, but it wouldn't be shocking if they over-perform or seriously underperform that target.

Picking the West

Round One
1 Gonzaga over 16 Prairie View A&M (First Four winner) ... Gonzaga gains some valuable momentum by taking apart the SWAC Champion Prairie View A&M Panthers.

8 Syracuse over 9 Baylor ... Does this Syracuse team have another Tournament run in them? Their patented 2-3 zone and dynamic guards will be a tough matchup for anybody in the field.

12 Murray State over 5 Marquette ... This game should be thrilling, and will keep the scoreboard operators busy. I like Ja Morant to keep his college career alive by taking down the cold Golden Eagles.

4 Florida State over 13 Vermont ... Possible upset alert definitely, but Florida State's depth puts them over the edge here.

6 Buffalo over 11 Arizona State (First Four winner) ... Bobby Hurley at Arizona State will be eager to beat his old team, but this Buffalo squad has all the tools to survive.

3 Texas Tech over 14 Northern Kentucky ... This Texas Tech squad is legit, and their suffocating defense will fluster the Horizon League Champ.

10 Florida over 7 Nevada ... Nevada does have a lot of talent and experience, but the Gators are trending up at the right time.

2 Michigan over 15 Montana ... 15th seed Montana is no joke, but Michigan's size and shooting should put them over the top in this one.

Round Two
1 Gonzaga over 8 Syracuse ... This is going to be a tough game for Gonzaga, but Zach Norvell and Josh Perkins should be able to outshoot Syracuse's zone.

4 Florida State over 12 Murray State ... Morant and Murray State will keep things close, but they don't have the size to compete with this FSU team for 40 minutes.

3 Texas Tech over 6 Buffalo ... The Bulls have been able to beat strong defenses all season long, but the Red Raiders are still strong enough on that end to win the game.

2 Michigan over 10 Florida ... Gators offer an interesting challenge to the two seed, but don't have the shooting to down Michigan in Des Moines.

Sweet 16
1 Gonzaga over 4 Florida State ... Gonzaga will be eager to avenge last year's second round loss, but must stay out of foul trouble in the post.

3 Texas Tech over 2 Michigan ... Two of the best defenses in the nation squaring off will make for a tough, physical game. Texas Tech finds a way to come out with the victory here.

Elite Eight
1 Gonzaga over 3 Texas Tech ... I love this TTU squad, but no team that lost their first game in their conference tournament has ever made the Final Four. Not sure if the Red Raiders can be the one to buck this trend.

West Region Champion: 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs 

Sunday, March 17, 2019

2019 Bracket Analysis: East Region

R.J. Barrett, Duke
After going on a run to win the ACC Tournament, Duke was awarded the No. 1 overall seed in the Field of 68, and the top seed in the East Region. With Zion Williamson back at full strength, the Blue Devils are going to be a popular National Champion pick, and for good reason. Zion seems to be getting even better as time passes, and R.J. Barrett proved he could lead the team in Zion's absence. Yet, I think the real X-factors on this team entering the Tournament are Cam Reddish and forward Jack White. Reddish and White are the two best shooters on this team, and are crucial to opening up this Duke offense and lanes for Williamson and Barrett to work with. Duke is an incredibly scary team when Reddish is hot, but clearly struggles when he goes cold. The same could be said on a much lesser scale with White. He had a horrific shooting slump in the middle of the season, missing 28 straight three-pointers at one point. If he is able to find his stroke, he adds a much different element to this offense, and forces defenses to focus on others not named Zion or R.J. With that being said, Duke is playing terrific basketball and has the advantage of a pretty favorable region. Their second round matchup will feature one of the weaker 8/9s in the field, and their toughest likely meeting prior to the Elite Eight is probably four seed Virginia Tech. Of course, they do have a strong 2 seed in Michigan State to contend with, but the Blue Devils have all the tools to roll through until that regional final clash with the Spartans.

My favorite dark horse in this region has to be 12th-seeded Liberty, who won the Atlantic Sun conference. That conference has produced some Cinderella stories before (hello, Florida Gulf Coast!) and had a number of strong teams at the top. The Flames were able to come out and win it thanks to a stingy defense that allows less than 61 PPG (sixth in the entire country) and a smart, balanced offensive attack. Forward Scottie James was their leader in points per game and rebounds per game, but is far from their only weapon. Puerto Rican guard Georgie Pacheco-Ortiz is one of the best shooters in the entire nation, knocking down just under 48 percent from downtown. If he is able to get really hot, I see the Flames really rolling in this region. Liberty starts their play against five seed Mississippi State, who is a quality team but certainly beatable. Miss. State has been incredibly streaky all year long offensively, and I see them struggling to find a way to score on this physical Liberty defense. From that point on, an in-state meeting with Virginia Tech could be in the cards, if the Hokies are able to sneak past Atlantic 10 Champion St. Louis.

One of the most surprising developments on Selection Sunday was Belmont of the Ohio Valley Conference making it into the field as an at-large. The Bruins will play in the First Four against a solid Temple team, with the winner going on to square off against Maryland. It was quite frankly shocking Belmont was able to make it in over bigger schools, especially considering their best win was over Murray State when their star PG, Ja Morant, was hurt. Yet, that doesn't mean Belmont isn't deserving, as this is a well-rounded team that has a superb offense. They run their offense through a very special backcourt that knows how to fill it up. Veteran Dylan Windler is averaging a double-double on the year, while shooting 55% from the field, while fellow guards Kevin McClain and Grayson Murphy have also proven they can step up and make big plays. Nearly every single year since the Tournament expanded to 68, a First Four team has been able to have success, with VCU in 2011 being the ultimate example. I think this Belmont team should be able to win against Temple, and find a way to upset Maryland. Heck, with LSU in a state of flux with head coach Will Wade currently suspended, a Sweet 16 berth might not be too crazy for the Bruins either.

Minnesota has had a nice recovery following a disappointing '17-'18 season, getting into the bracket as a ten seed. I've called for Richard Pitino's job on this blog before, but the Gophers are playing great basketball under him, including two victories over Purdue in the last few weeks. They remain an incredibly inconsistent team, but should be an interesting team to watch in this region. Jordan Murphy continues to be one of the most productive and reliable forwards in major college basketball, while junior guard Amir Coffey has been a tear over the last few games and can absolutely take over. Yet beware: the Gophers still have nobody to run their offense at point guard and are extremely thin, particularly in the frontcourt. Pitino has used Coffey and veteran Dupree McBrayer as his initiators of the offense all year long, but neither are true point guards. The only true PG on this roster is sophomore Isaiah Washington, who has been in Pitino's doghouse for some time and has been used sparingly. This issue has really shown itself in Minnesota's halfcourt offense all year, and it could doom them against a well-built Louisville opponent. The lack of depth in the frontcourt is especially troubling, where the Gophers miss Eric Curry, who is out for the year. All in all, a streaky team like this may be able to make some noise, but I would not bet on it. If they find a way to get past Louisville, Michigan State looms, a team Minnesota never seems to beat.

While Duke may be a popular pick to win the East, I think that the Big Ten Champion Michigan State Spartans are going to be the eventual Final Four rep from this region. Since a shocking loss at Illinois, Michigan State has won 10 of 11 and looks hungry to go deep in this Tournament. They are led by steady point guard Cassius Winston, who won Big Ten Player of the Year and does everything well. He can score in a variety of ways, is an insanely good passer and shoots from three-point at a 41% clip. He gives MSU an advantage not a lot of teams in this bracket have: a veteran point guard who has won a lot of games. Michigan State also has an experience, deep frontcourt even with forward Kyle Ahrens future in question following an injury today in the Big Ten Championship. Nick Ward is fully healthy after missing some time and remains a force on the block, while Kenny Goins and Xavier Tillman have proven themselves all season long. Is Michigan State the most talented team in this region? No, but Tom Izzo has proven himself countless times in March, and veteran-laden teams like this tend to be the smart bet in such a wild sport.

Picking the East

Round One
1 Duke over 16 North Dakota State (First Four Winner) ... No chance this year the No. 1 overall seed drops to a 16 seed. Zion and company absolutely roll here.

9 UCF over 8 VCU... UCF has not been in the Tournament for over a decade, and it shouldn't end quickly, as they use their superior size to beat VCU.

12 Liberty over 5 Mississippi State ... Ben Howland has won a lot of NCAA Tournament games during his head coaching tenure, but his Bulldogs get upset by Liberty in this one.

4 Virginia Tech over 13 St. Louis ... Virginia Tech is a quality basketball team and they are bolstered by the return of star guard Justin Robinson, who has been out since January.

11 Belmont (First Four winner) over 6 Maryland ... Maryland has been a surprise but they are the fourth-youngest basketball team in the country, and don't have the defense to stop Belmont.

3 LSU over 14 Yale ... LSU is in a weird state with Will Wade's uncertain future, but they should still have enough in the tank to sneak past the Ivy League champ.

7 Louisville over 10 Minnesota ... Should be a good game, but the Cardinals are a great offensive rebounding team, which should be all the difference against a thin Minnesota squad.

2 Michigan State over 15 Bradley ... Wasn't that long ago second-seeded Michigan State was upset by Middle Tennessee. Don't see history repeating itself in this particular instance.

Round Two
1 Duke over 9 UCF... This may be a closer game than people think, but UCF simply doesn't have the athletes to slow down Zion and R.J. Barrett over the course of 40 minutes.

4 Virginia Tech over 12 Liberty ... The Flames are going to be a tough out for anybody, but the Hokies find a way to outshoot Liberty's strong defense.

3 LSU over 11 Belmont ... Again, I would not be shocked if Belmont found a way to move on, but LSU was the SEC regular season champ for a reason.

2 Michigan State over 7 Louisville ... Chris Mack has done a great job getting Louisville back on track, but it would be a tall order to expect the Cardinals to take down this surging MSU team.

Sweet 16
1 Duke over 4 Virginia Tech ... The Hokies did beat Duke earlier this season, but Duke is healthier now and much more motivated.

2 Michigan State over 3 LSU ... The Tigers may be able to compete with Michigan State in the post, but the Spartans superior shooting gives them the win here.

Elite Eight
2 Michigan State over 1 Duke ... This would be a epic clash between two great programs and two great head coaches. Again, Michigan State's shooting and experience puts them over the top in what should be a close one.

East Region Champion: 2 Michigan State Spartans

Monday, March 11, 2019

2019 Big Ten Tournament Prediction

Anthony Cowan, Maryland
First Round

12 Rutgers Scarlet Knights over 13 Nebraska Cornhuskers
Rutgers has struggled to consistently climb out of the Big Ten cellar since joining the conference, but this 2019 squad is a tough, physical group that should not be overlooked. On the other hand, Nebraska has been trending down for some time now. They were ranked entering conference play, but suffered a midseason stretch of seven straight losses. Senior wing James Palmer Jr. gives them a fighting chance, but he has been incredibly inefficient at times. Unless he is able to figure things out against a stingy Rutgers defense, I like the Scarlet Knights to move on.

11 Illinois Fighting Illini over 14 Northwestern Wildcats
The Fighting Illini have been about as streaky as you can get in head coach Brad Underwood's second season in Champaign, but they've shown they can have their moments. They've pounded Minnesota, handled Maryland and shocked Michigan State at home. They're the time of up-and-down team that could get hot at the right time, even though the postseason is completely out of the question. Stud freshman forward Giorgi Bezhanishvili is a force on both ends, and Northwestern does not have anybody that can counter him.

Second Round

9 Indiana Hoosiers over 8 Ohio State Buckeyes
These are two teams who sit firmly on the bubble at the moment, and a victory in Chicago could be the difference between dancing and playing in the NIT. Indiana's dealt with a lot of injuries, and at one point lost 12 of 13 games. Yet, amazingly, they're still alive, thanks to a season sweep of Michigan State and non-conference victories over Marquette and Louisville. Ohio State has a slightly better record but has lost six of eight and lacks many quality wins. The Buckeyes should be able to play defense, but can they shoot? They've been held under 60 points in four of those last eight games. I like the Hoosiers to continue their recent hot streak here.

5 Maryland Terrapins over 12 Rutgers Scarlet Knights
The two newest teams to the Big Ten clash in the second round here, and I expect a good game. Rutgers should be able to counter Maryland's PG Anthony Cowan with their own skilled backcourt, but do they have an answer for forwards Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith? Fernando is an absolute load to handle for any big man, while Smith has been stroking from downtown after a very cold start to the year. Maryland is the slightly better rebounding team, which could end up being an important factor in pushing them to a victory.

7 Minnesota Golden Gophers over 10 Penn State Nittany Lions
After narrowly missing the NCAA field last season, Penn State had a brutal start to league play in '18-'19, but they seem to be gelling at the right time. They've won five of six to rise from the cellar of the conference to the 10 seed. They've struggled offensively all year, but forward Lamar Stevens gives them a really good chance against Minnesota. Yet, they'll need to find a way to slow down Gopher guard Amir Coffey, who is averaging 29 PPG over the last three. He'll be instrumental in guiding Minnesota to a close, hard-fought win.

11 Illinois Fighting Illini over 6 Iowa Hawkeyes
While a few teams in the bottom tier of the conference are hitting their stride, Iowa is going the wrong way. They've dropped five of their last six, including a 20-point beatdown on the road against Wisconsin where they shot 31% from the field. Its concerning for the Hawkeyes, who have been built on their offense all year, and care little about the other end of the court (defense ranks 246th nationally in points allowed). Head coach Fran McCaffrey is back after a two-game suspension, but can he motivate this struggling team? Illinois should be able to take advantage of the Hawkeyes' questionable defense, particularly from deep.

Quarterfinals

1 Michigan State Spartans over 9 Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana has found a way to take down Michigan State in both their meetings so far this season, and they'll enter this game with a bunch of confidence and motivation. Yet, they just so happen to be playing an incredibly hot Michigan State squad, winners of seven of their last eight games, including a season sweep of rival Michigan to lock down the league's top seed. The Spartans also get back big man Nick Ward, who is expected to play all Tournament. He's missed significant time with a hand injury, but is crucial to this offense's success.

4 Wisconsin Badgers over 5 Maryland Terrapins
Wisconsin and Maryland have split the season series so far this year, and I expect a competitive quarterfinals matchup between the two of them. If I'm Maryland I put Wisconsin senior Ethan Happ on the free throw line as much as possible (47% from the line on the season), yet others have proven they can step up. Senior Khalil Iverson has been huge for this team down the stretch, as has budding sophomore Nate Reuvers. The Badgers' suffocating defense, which is eighth in the country in points allowed per game, should help them come out on top.

2 Purdue Boilermakers over 7 Minnesota Gophers
A recent home win over Purdue likely locked in Minnesota to the Big Dance, but the Boilermakers should be out for vengeance in the rematch here. Big man Matt Haarms should be in store for a great game, eager to take on a thin Minnesota frontcourt after going 1-8 from the field in their last meeting. However, the X-factor is undeniably Carsen Edwards; the All-American guard has been terrific for much of the season but had a horrific 7-31 shooting night the last time these two teams met. He is going to need to defer to Purdue's other offensive weapons, namely sharpshooting Ryan Cline, in order for the Boilermakers to get the win.

3 Michigan Wolverines over 11 Illinois Fighting Illini
The top four seeds in the conference all reaching the semifinals? Maybe its unrealistic but MSU, Purdue, Michigan and Wisconsin have really separated themselves from the rest of the pack all year long. The Wolverines are going to get an aggressive fight from the Illini, but Illinois really lacks the length UM possesses. Forward Ignas Brazdeikis should have a big day for the Wolverines, and their tough, physical defense will force the Illini into some poor shots.

Semifinals

1 Michigan State Spartans over 4 Wisconsin Badgers
These are two well-built, deep teams that are locking to improve their seeding before the NCAA Tournament. The backcourt action will be thrilling to watch as possible Big Ten Player of the Year Cassius Winston duels against Iverson and Brad Davison. Yet, the real deciding factor will be in the paint, where a healthy Nick Ward should be able to make all the difference.

3 Michigan Wolverines over 2 Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan has not been shooting the ball great down the stretch, but that could change just at the right moment. Steady veteran Charles Matthews has missed their last three games with an ankle injury, but was dressed against MSU, and should be ready to go by this point. When Matthews, Jordan Poole and Zavier Simpson are all playing well, the trio is absolutely unstoppable. It should be enough to overpower Purdue, who really struggled to shoot the ball the last time these two met, and doesn't match up favorably with the Wolverines.

Championship

1 Michigan State Spartans over 3 Michigan Wolverines
A No. 1 seed winning their respective conference tournament? Not exactly going out on a limb, and a pretty boring pick. Yet, this Michigan State squad looks like the Tom Izzo teams of old, who seem to always hit their stride right when March rolls around. Winston is going to keep the offense chugging along as will the addition of Ward, but give credit to Michigan State's unheralded veterans. Guys like Matt McQuaid and Kenny Goins have been crucial to this team, and their veteran leadership will be huge in helping the Spartans take home the Big Ten Tournament crown in Chicago. Could it help them lock down a No. 1 seed in the Field of 68? Currently sitting at sixth in the polls, it isn't unreasonable.

2019 Big Ten Tournament Champion: Michigan State Spartans

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

NFL Mock Draft 2019: Edition 2 (Combine Edition)

Kyler Murray, No. 1 to Arizona
1. Arizona Cardinals 
Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
New Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury once stated he would draft Kyler Murray No. 1 overall if he had the chance. Of course, Kingsbury and Arizona now have the chance and all the rumors coming out at the NFL Combine center around the Cardinals taking the reigning Heisman winner. Murray didn't take part in any drills while at Indianapolis, but he measured in at 5'10" and over 207 pounds, which was still enough to press onlooking scouts.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Nick Bosa, DL, Ohio State
If Murray does indeed go No. 1, San Francisco would jump on the chance to land Nick Bosa, who is widely viewed as the best prospect in the 2019 Draft at this point. Bosa took off much of this fall to focus on the Draft and it showed, impressing in drills and measurements. He would immediately add some serious bite to a Niners' pass rush that needed it in the second half of this past season.
3. New York Jets
Quinnen Williams, DL, Alabama
Williams was absolutely unstoppable at times this fall for the Crimson Tide, and a strong Combine only strengthened his chance to go in the Top 5 and possibly even be the top guy off the board. He posted a 4.83 40-time, showcasing an impressive amount of athleticism and quickness despite his mammoth size.
4. Oakland Raiders
Josh Allen, LB, Kentucky
Oakland's defense has been historically bad at times these last few years, and adding an imposing edge rusher is absolutely necessary with Khalil Mack long gone. Josh Allen is the best hybrid end/outside 'backer in this Draft class, and he boasts impressive versatility and range. Jon Gruden has to jump on the chance to add such a difference-maker at the four spot.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
Selecting a franchise left tackle to keep Jameis Winston on his feet looks like a top priority for new head coach Bruce Arians and the Buccaneers. They certainly could be a team looking to trade down, considering this is a weak offensive line class, but if they stay firm at 5, Jonah Williams looks like the favorite. He was a three-year starter while at Alabama, and has proven himself as a top-flight pass blocker.
6. New York Giants
Dwayne Haskins Jr., QB, Ohio State
The Giants have withheld from selecting a quarterback in the first round for some time now, but they can't ignore the quarterback situation anymore. Eli Manning is clearly nearing the end of his time, but may still have one year left in the tank for New York to develop a signal-caller. With Murray gone, Haskins is head-and-shoulders above any other QB at this point, and seems like a good fit in Pat Shurmur's offense.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ed Oliver, DL, Houston
With Nick Foles rumored to be signing with Jacksonville when free agency opens up, the Jaguars need at quarterback evaporates for the time being. Instead, they'll likely look go best player available at this slot, with Ed Oliver the front-runner. Oliver could play inside or outside on this D-Line, and he has just as much upside as many pass rusher in this Draft.
8. Detroit Lions
Devin White, LB, LSU
After running a blazing 40-yard dash at the Combine, Devin White has locked himself in as the top middle linebacker in this class. The former LSU Tiger can really do it all; he's an elite run stopper but also can go out and cover tight ends or receivers. He would be a huge upgrade for a Detroit Lions' linebacker corps that was among the worst in the NFL this season.
9. Buffalo Bills
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
D.K. Metcalf came away from Indianapolis as perhaps the biggest winner at any position. He really impressed on all the strength tests, and put in a 4.33 40. He looks like the pretty clear No. 1 receiver at this juncture, and Buffalo really needs receiving help. Metcalf is the type of deep threat that could really open up a Bills' offense that lacked big plays in 2018.
10. Denver Broncos
Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Acquiring Joe Flacco early this off-season will almost certainly not solve Denver's long-running quarterback problems. They'd love if either Haskins or Murray were available at 10, but if they aren't, Drew Lock is the pick. GM John Elway has been enthralled with Lock for some time now, and his huge arm would be a major upgrade over the Case Keenum and Trevor Simians of the world.
11. Cincinnati Bengals
Montez Sweat, DE/LB, Mississippi State
Cincinnati is a fascinating team to watch at this point, as they could go any number of directions with the eleventh pick. While offensive line could be in play, as well as a QB to possibly replace Andy Dalton, I think they'll go defense here. Montez Sweat is another guy who wowed scouts at the Combine, and he would immediately help the Bengals' ailing pass rush.
12. Green Bay Packers
Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan
Green Bay was hopeful Muhammed Wilkerson would vastly improve their struggling D-Line this past fall but Wilkerson was knocked out just a few games into the year. Even if Wilkerson is retained, the Packers should look at a long-term solution here. Rashan Gary was never extremely productive while at Michigan, but he has all the tools to be a force off the edge for this Green Bay defense.
13. Miami Dolphins
Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson
With the top three quarterbacks off the board, Miami looks for other solutions to their quarterback problems and goes best player available here. Clelin Ferrell is the type of pass rusher that could go Top 5 even in a stacked defensive line class, and the Dolphins would be thrilled to get him at 13. He should be a fun new toy for first-year head coach Brian Flores, who was formerly DC in New England.
14. Atlanta Falcons
Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson
Issues on the defensive line have plagued Atlanta for some time now, and they can't wait any longer to remedy their issues. They have a history of drafting Clemson D-Linemen, and they go back to the Tigers here by adding talented Christian Wilkins. Wilkins measures very well, and was highly productive over his four years in South Carolina.
15. Washington Redskins
Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
Even if Alex Smith didn't suffer a horrifying leg injury this fall, Washington really needed a long-term solution at the quarterback position. They look like they could trade up but if they stick in the middle of the first, Duke's Daniel Jones looks like the guy. Jones is not necessarily flashy, but he has the size and arm strength, and also learned under noted QB guru David Cutcliffe while at Duke.
16. Carolina Panthers
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
Talented tight end Greg Olsen suffered yet another injury this past December that ended his year early, the latest in a string of setbacks for the veteran. Carolina hopes Olsen can return 100 percent but its looking more and more like they should look elsewhere at the position. Hockenson was very productive at Iowa in 2018, and looks like a first-round pick. He gives Cam Newton another tool to work with in an offense lacking big play options.
17. Cleveland Browns
Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
Baker Mayfield was extremely impressive in his first season with the Browns, flashing the potential to lead Cleveland to new heights. Cleveland would do good to surround him with even more pieces, including a stronger O-Line to keep him up right. There were an abundance of options at this spot, but Jawaan Taylor is a guy with Top 10 talent. Taylor would also help their ground game; he was a beast in run blocking all fall while at Florida.
18. Minnesota Vikings
Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma
Minnesota shouldn't even consider going anywhere else with this pick than offensive line. People are quick to blame Kirk Cousins for the missed postseason, but the porous O-Line was really the bigger problem. Cody Ford would be a fine direction to go here, as he excelled throughout his time in Norman, and has significant upside.
19. Tennessee Titans
A.J. Brown, WR, Ole Miss
While his Ole Miss teammate Metcalf may be getting all the attention right now, A.J. Brown was more productive with the Rebels, and less of a risk. He's got an ideal frame in today's NFL, wide wide, sticky hands. He would be a nice addition in this Tennessee offense next to rising Corey Davis, another former first-rounder.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama
Pittsburgh has not been able to fill the void left by Ryan Shazier, so linebacker must be a top priority entering this Draft. They'd ideally land Devin White, but I don't think there is any chance he sticks around into the mid-first. Settling for Mack Wilson is a fine consolation; he's the latest in the factory that is the Alabama inside linebacker position.
21. Seattle Seahawks
Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama
The Seahawks aren't equipped to get together another "Legion of Boom" secondary, but they need to upgrade what was a thin group in 2018. They should continue the run on Alabama defenders with Deionte Thompson, who put together an All-American campaign. He is rangy, well-built and has a high football IQ, making this is a no-brainer.
22. Baltimore Ravens
Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State
Lamar Jackson was an electrifying bolt to a mediocre Baltimore offense, but he'll still need help around from a patched-up group of offensive weapons. Parris Campbell put together a quality Combine, and looks like a late first-rounder at this point. He could do some real damage with Jackson's rocket arm.
23. Houston Texans
DeAndre Baker, CB, Georgia
I think this is an underrated group of defensive backs, with some lasting deeper in the first round then they deserve. DeAndre Baker is the cream of the crop, a guy with ample experience in the physical world of SEC football. He has quality size and superb coverage skills, and performed well at the Combine.
24. Oakland Raiders
Brian Burns, DE, Florida State
Jon Gruden continues to craft the defense to his liking by selecting Brian Burns with their second selection of the first round. Burns has excellent quickness and upper body strength, and has proven himself a superb edge rusher. He had 23 sacks over three seasons with Florida State, including ten in 2018.
25. Philadelphia Eagles
Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
Is there a chance Philadelphia could go after one of the biggest names in the free agent market, Le'Veon Bell? Perhaps, but they need to figure out their running back situation either way. Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles could both be gone with contracts expiring. Josh Jacobs does so many things well, and is a smooth pass-catcher in the open field.
26. Indianapolis Colts
Jachai Polite, DL, Florida
The Colts were one of the bigger surprises of the 2018 season, thanks in large part to a much-improved defense top to bottom. With that being said, they could get even better and younger up front, and this Draft has no shortage of options. Jachai Polite measured very well at the Combine and is the type of powerful linemen that should excel at the next level.
27. Oakland Raiders
Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
With the pick they acquired in the Amari Cooper deal, Oakland hopes for a new No. 1 guy in their offense. Marquise Brown didn't run at the Combine due to foot problems, but his college tape should show you all you need to know. He has electrifying speed and explosiveness, equipped to do plenty of damage with Derek Carr.
28. Los Angeles Chargers
Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
Phillip Rivers may be 37 years old, but he still looks like he has a lot left in the tank, particularly if he is protected adequately. There is a lot of options here on the offensive line, but Andre Dillard might have the most potential. He measured very well at the Combine and has the type of frame that will fit right in at the next level.
29. Kansas City Chiefs
Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
Once one of the strengths of this Kansas City team, Kansas City's secondary lacked playmakers a season ago and will have to be remedied. They would absolutely love if Williams drops all the way down near the bottom of the first round. The uber-athletic corner has size, strength and ball skills, and has a higher ceiling than most of the other corners in this Draft class.
30. Green Bay Packers
Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
Jimmy Graham just is not the type of player he once was, and the Packers could use some more weapons to open up this offense. Noah Fant becomes the second Iowa tight end taken in Round 1; he isn't as dangerous in the red zone as Hockenson, but is a better athlete who can really space the field for this GB offense.
31. Los Angeles Rams
Jeffery Simmons, DL, Mississippi State
The Rams got quality production from their defensive line and pass rush this past season, but it didn't come cheap. Ndamukong Suh simply is not worth a 20 million dollar price tag, and Los Angeles could add a cheaper, younger option here in Jeffery Simmons. Simmons may have off-the-field concerns, but there is no denying the astounding talent he possesses.
32. New England Patriots
Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State
Even though he didn't have a great Combine, Kelvin Harmon remains one of the top receivers in this Draft. Harmon ran slow compared to some of the other bigger names, but his strength centers around his size and ability to catch in traffic. This would greatly help a New England offense that lacks any true playmaker at receiver beyond Julian Edelman.

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Its Time for Minnesota to Move On From Richard Pitino

Richard Pitino, Minnesota
A late Sunday night duel between Rutgers and Minnesota didn't garner much attention from the mainstream, but it was certainly important for one program. It marked Minnesota's sixth loss in seven games, and downed them to a 17-11 overall record, and 7-10 in league play. Once a team right on the edge of Top 25 polls, the Gophers are now one of the "First Four Out" in Joe Lunardi's newest bracketology released. It has been a steep fall for the Gophers, but one that has been all too familiar under sixth-year head coach Richard Pitino. Pitino may have the name recognition, but the results just haven't been there during his tenure in the Twin Cities. If athletic director Mark Coyle is serious about his commitment to Minnesota's basketball program he can't afford to wait much longer. Its time to move on from Pitino, and seek a new direction for the struggling program.

Richard Pitino was an interesting hire when the Gophers decided to roll him with following the up-and-down tenure of former head man Tubby Smith. He had been an assistant at a number of Division I programs, namely under Billy Donovan at Florida and his father Rick at Louisville. Yet, his lone head coaching experience was one year at Florida International, which was then part of the Sun Belt Conference. Granted it was a pretty successful year for FIU, who came within one game of the NCAA Tournament, playing in the Sun Belt Conference Championship in 2013. Despite the lack of head coaching experience at a high level, Minnesota moved forward with Pitino, making him the 17th head coach in program history in early April of '13. Its important to note that Pitino certainly made a major impact in his first season with the Gophers. There was an energy and excitement around Williams Arena that had been desperately missing during the final few years of Tubby. Pitino's up-tempo, aggressive style of play also seemed to fit this roster surprisingly well, and the results showed for themselves. A late January victory over arch-rival Wisconsin at home impressed so many that even ESPN's Dick Vitale was raving about Pitino. Even though Minnesota wouldn't go to the NCAA Tournament, they capped off the year with an NIT Championship by beating a very strong SMU squad. It was a pretty smashing debut for Pitino, who seemed eager to prove that he was hired for his coaching prowess and not his last name.

Yet, the momentum and excitement created by that debut began to wear down with two consecutive seasons of no postseason, including a 2015-2016 season that was among the worst in Minnesota's entire history. Its understandable to have some ups-and-downs in the first few years taking over a new program, as you get acclimated to the role and the recruiting that comes with it. And, to be fair to Pitino, few coaches would have had success with that '16 team, which was playing without four key players by the end of the year due to suspension and injury. A recovery over the course of the 2017 season looking it would be a second-life for the head coach and this Gophers program. Minnesota won 24 games, finished fourth in the Big Ten and made their first NCAA Tournament appearance under Pitino. People were so impressed by the turnaround, Pitino earned Big Ten Coach of the Year honors, and again was praised. But, in that Tournament game against 12th-seed Middle Tennessee, the Gophers seemed unprepared and never adjusted to MTU's increased pace of play. This has been the issue for some time now; Pitino is simply not a good in-game head coach. It has been evident for some time now, and its time to realize that it is not going to magically change.

Pitino's inability to adjust and evolve has been especially evident this season. An early league game against Maryland at home was a perfect opportunity to continue the good vibes gained from an impressive win on the road against Wisconsin. The Gophers held a comfortable lead for much of the game until the Terrapins switched to a 2-3 zone defense in the second half. Minnesota looked absolutely lost trying to run any sort of offense, and in turn Maryland took the upper hand. The Terps would end up winning by 15 on the road, with the Gophers putting together a truly terrible shooting performance in that second half. This game was the perfect encapsulation of the issues Pitino has had and why this Gophers program has been so frustratingly streaky. Despite coaching in the Big Ten for half a decade, I'm still not sure whether Pitino has any idea how to break a zone. The offense as a whole has seemed regularly lost for much of the season. Outside of isolation possessions by star Amir Coffey and Jordan Murphy's action on the block, there is no flow to the offense and no rhythm. Perhaps you can blame that on the lack of a true point guard this season for the Gophers, but it has been evident for so much of Pitino's tenure. That Maryland game also showcased something that has absolutely haunted the Gophers under these past six seasons: free throw shooting. Currently, Minnesota is hitting 67% from the free throw line, which is 298th nationally. Thats about par for Pitino teams, whose teams have lost close game after close game because they simply can't convert one of the most fundamental parts of the sport. Sure, at some point players have have to make their shots, but how has free throw shooting not been made an even larger priority? The stats speak for themselves; either the coaching staff doesn't care about this major issue, or they don't know how to fix it. As a fan of this Gopher team, I'm not sure which is more troubling.

To Pitino's credit, he has recruited extremely well and that can't be overlooked at a program not known for producing top-tier talent. Back in the 2017 class, the staff was able to go out east and land Isaiah Washington, a Top 50 national recruit from the Bronx. They've done an incredible job capitalizing on the impressive talent playing in the state of Minnesota. They locked down Amir Coffey from a number of other big-time programs, and also managed to keep four-star Daniel Oturu and three-star Gabe Kalscheur in the state. Both of those guys have made an immediate impact, namely Kalscheur, who hit six threes in Sunday's loss to Rutgers. Yet, this recruiting success raises a really fundamental question: why can't Minnesota win with this talent? Coffey is easily one of the greatest talents the program has ever had, and yet there is a good chance he could end his Gophers career with one single, short-lived NCAA Tournament appearance. Meanwhile, Washington has really struggled in his time in Minnesota, showing no real development and butting heads with the coaching staff. While we can applaud Pitino's success on the recruiting trail, the fact it hasn't materialized into anything very meaningful just goes to further show the shortcomings he has as a head coach.

One of the most common arguments that I've heard for the Gophers to retain Pitino is that they don't believe they can land any head coach better. I do understand that landing a huge, established name at this type of program won't be easy, but that shouldn't be any reason to keep around an underachieving coach. Here is a short list of guys that should be in play if Minnesota does indeed decide to part ways with the sixth-year coach.
Eric Musselman, Nevada: Musselman has made his way around nearly every level of basketball, currently leading a Nevada squad that looks ready to make a deep NCAA Tournament run. He has coached in the NBA with both the Warriors and Kings, as well as the G-League. His success with the Wolf Pack shows he can win at unconventional places, and he may be eager to leave, considering Nevada is a senior-laden team that will need significant rebuilding after this season. Musselman has some Minnesota ties: he was a Timberwolves assistant in the early 90's.
Fred Hoiberg, Former Iowa State Coach: This really would be a dream scenario for any Gophers fan. Hoiberg has a proven pedigree, winning big at Iowa State (2 Big 12 Tournament victories) before making a short-lived jump to the NBA. Hoiberg has to be eager to return to the collegiate ranks, and he knows Minnesota well. He played for the Timberwolves, and also served as VP of Basketball Operations for them. At 46, he is the perfect blend of still being fairly young but possessing ample experience.
Nate Oats, Buffalo: At Buffalo, Nate Oats has built a tremendous mid-major program that has proven they can take down the top dogs. They've been to the Big Dance twice in four seasons with him, and look well on their way to a third at this point in 2019. Originally from Wisconsin with his alma mater being at Maranatha Baptist (Watertown, WI) returning to the Midwest may be in the cards for the 44-year old.

Friday, February 22, 2019

Top 10 March Madness Moments of the Last Ten Years

Ali Farokhmanesh, UNI over Kansas

We are now reaching late February, a quick reminder that any college sports fan's favorite time of the year is nearly upon us: March Madness. As of publishing, we sit 23 days away from Selection Sunday and just 25 days away from the time games actually tip off on March 19th. In order to pass some of the time and get us further pumped up for the crazy we're about to witness, I decided to count down my Top 10 favorite March Madness moments of the last decade (2009-2018). Take a stroll down memory lane with some of the most insane and improbable moments in the NCAA Tournament's storied history.

We've seen no shortage of buzzer-beaters in March Madness history, but R.J. Hunter's huge shot in the 2015 NCAA Tournament was special in a few ways. It was the culmination of a stunning late run by Georgia State that reminds you how quickly momentum can shift in basketball (Baylor was up 12 with less than three minutes to play). The shot was also so crazy it caused GSU head coach Ron Hunter to fall off his chair in excitement, less than a week after hurting himself celebrating the Panthers' trip to the Big Dance. Ron just happened to be R.J.'s father, and seeing the two share such a thrilling moment on the grand stage was awesome, and easily one of the coolest moments in recent March action.
Trey Burke was instrumental in Michigan's run to the 2013 National Championship, and he had no greater moment than his deep three in a Sweet 16 duel versus Kansas. It was a fearless play by a fearless player, going out and launching from thirty feet out with a decent amount of time still left on the clock. It might not have been a game winner, but allowed the Wolverines to go into overtime and eventually take down the No. 1 seeded Jayhawks. It was also the embodiment of just how great Burke was in that Tournament, coming so close to handing UM their first National Title since 1989.
The 2011 NCAA Tournament was about as wild as you can get in a Tournament literally nicknamed "March Madness", with Butler and VCU both rolling to the Final Four in shocking fashion. VCU took down a number of top dogs en route to their Final Four berth but none bigger than Kansas, who was again, a No. 1 seed. The Jayhawks were 11-point favorites and were spearheaded by the Morris twins, but they weren't prepared for the Rams' up-tempo, blazing pace of play. This victory helped VCU become the first "First Four" team to ever make it to the Final Four, and introduced the world to "Havoc" and Shaka Smart, which captivated college hoops for a number of years.
Old Big East rivals squaring off in the Elite Eight is always going to be fun to watch, and 2009's Villanova-Pittsburgh duel didn't disappoint. Both teams played with incredible heart and passion, but it all came down to a buzzer-beating layup by Scottie Reynolds. Reynolds had a terrific Villanova career, but racing past most of the Pitt defense to hit this tough shot as time expired will obviously be his signature moment. It was such an impressive play by a great player in a thrilling game that could've easily made its way higher on the list.
Things can change with the blink of an eye on a basketball court, and nothing exemplifies this more than Texas A&M's unbelievable comeback against Northern Iowa in the second round of the 2016 NCAA Tournament. UNI held a 12-point lead with just 35 seconds left on the clock, before the Aggies unleashed a furious press. UNI made mistake after mistake and A&M capitalized, miraculously finding a way to force overtime and eventually, win the game. It had to have been heart-wrenching for the Panthers but it is a reminder that the game is never over until that clock hits zero. The Aggies would fall their next game against Buddy Hield and Oklahoma, but their furious comeback will live on forever.
Seeing a 15-seed earn their spot in the Sweet 16 is thrilling itself, but it was made even better by Florida-Gulf Coast's high-flying play. They had some truly amazing dunks and play loose and fast, beating two-seed Georgetown and seventh-seeded San Diego State before they were downed. This team played with an amazing energy and just seemed to be having more fun, something becoming more rare in the big-money world of today's college athletics. It was also a reminder of how thin the margin is between a 2 seed and a 15 seed; FGCU just had better athletes on the court and they came out and proved out. 
Even though Gordon Hayward's half-court pray in the 2010 National Championship ended up rattling out, it was still one of the most iconic moments in recent NCAA Tournament history. It reminds us that a basketball game, even a National Championship, can be decided by merely a few inches or the roll of the ball in the bucket. The shot would've also immortalized Hayward and Butler forever; the Bulldogs were the ultimate dark horse in this Tournament and they played toe-to-toe with the sport's ultimate blue blood, Duke. They might have come up just short, but it was still pretty inspiring seeing the scrappy Bulldogs fight so hard in a game they, theoretically, shouldn't have even been in.
Back in 2010, top-seeded Kansas was on a mission to win their second National Title in three years. Star players Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins had straight out said that they came back for their senior seasons with the Jayhawks with the sole purpose of winning it all. However, they ended up running into the well-rounded Northern Iowa Panthers in the second round, who played smart, fundamental basketball through the entire forty minutes. Up 63-62 with 43 seconds remaining, UNI broke Kansas's press and got the ball to Ali Farokhmanesh, who ended up hitting one of the most "ice in his veins" shots in NCAA history. It was the dagger that sealed the win, and it took some unbelievable confidence to go for it against the nation's top team. Farokhmanesh is now an assistant coach at Colorado State, but this shot will live on forever.
What a terrific basketball game the 2016 National Championship was. Two heavyweights, Villanova and UNC, battled it out for the entire matchup up until an insane ending. It looked like Marcus Paige's sprawling, double-clutch three to tie the game would be the biggest moment of the game until Kris Jenkins ended up hitting the game winner just moments later. Jay Wright drew up a superb play to open things up for Jenkins, who did not disappoint. Jenkins did what every basketball player dreams of: hitting the game-winner in the big game with time expiring. 
Its not everyday you see something that has never happened in the history of college basketball, but thats just what happened this past March. Even though some had come close, no 16 seed had ever managed to take down a 1 seed until tiny UMBC (University of Maryland-Baltimore County) shocked top-seeded Virginia. Not only did UMBC end up winning they dominated, beating the Cavaliers by 20 points, while shooting 54% from the field and 50% from three-point. Even though this upset completely ruined my bracket, which had Virginia going all the way, you can't hate on such a shocking and monumental upset. It really goes to show you that on any day, anybody can beat anybody, which I find to be one of the greatest and most enduring aspects of sports. 

Honorable Mentions
  • Block or foul? Trey Burke's play on Peyton Siva in 2013 National Championship
  • Arkansas-Little Rock's furious comeback against Purdue in 2016 Tournament
  • Tyus Jones sealing the National Championship over Wisconsin in 2015 National Championship
  • Loyola-Chicago's multiple buzzer beaters during Final Four run in 2018 NCAA Tournament
  • Syracuse huge comeback against Virginia in the Elite Eight of 2016 NCAA Tournament
  • South Carolina shocking Duke en route to 2017 Final Four
  • Wisconin's Bronson Koenig falling back buzzer beater to beat Xavier in 2016 NCAA Tournament

Monday, February 18, 2019

Scouting the Contenders 2019: Duke Blue Devils

Tre Jones, Duke
As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, and scouts their strengths and weaknesses and just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We continue with the nation's new No. 1 squad, the Duke Blue Devils.

Track Record

  • 23-2 overall record, 11-1 in the ACC
  • Notable Victories: vs. Kentucky 118-84, vs. Texas Tech 69-58, @ Virginia 81-71
  • Losses to Gonzaga 89-87 & Syracuse 95-91
  • Has won nine consecutive games
  • Averaging 86.4 points per game, fourth in the nation
Scouting Report: The hype surrounding 2018-2019 Duke has been intense since Zion Williamson's commitment last winter, and the Blue Devils have not disappointed. Spearheaded by Williamson and three other impressive freshmen, Duke has jumped to a 23-2 record and looks like they'll lock down the new No. 1 spot in the AP poll following Tennessee's loss over the weekend. With perhaps the most impressive resume in the entire country, Duke is certainly the favorite to earn the No. 1 overall seed come Selection Sunday, roughly a month out. But, is this youthful team really ready to go on a deep NCAA Tournament run, or will it eventually catch up with them? Any team that wants to take down Duke will have to find a way to slow down Williamson, who has looked like a man amongst boys for much of the season. He's stuffing the stat sheet, posting averages of 22.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG and 2.3 SPG while shooting 68% from the field. Williamson is also absolutely dominant in transition, which can help overcome some of his shooting woes that may show up in the half-court set. With that being said, Williamson may not be the most crucial piece on this Duke squad, which has to fall to point guard Tre Jones. Jones' ability to run the offense is what really makes Duke go, and he has asserted himself as one of the best perimeter defenders in the country. This is going to be important, because the Blue Devils aren't a superb defensive team, no matter what Zion's highlight-reel blocks may look like. Of course, we also have to talk about the other freshmen in Duke's feared foursome, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish. Barrett is probably the team's best all-around scorer but consistency continues to haunt him. The same can be said about Reddish, although when he is hot from deep, he is next to unstoppable. The four of them make up what will probably go down as one of the greatest freshman classes in college basketball history, if not the best. Yet, talent doesn't always win when it comes to March, when poor shooting sand other chaos can shake things up. We've seen our fair share of talented freshmen teams run into a wall in the NCAA Tournament and even with four future NBA pieces, the same can happen to the Blue Devils. Its also important to point out that this team does have some deficiencies beyond just inexperience, most notably a lack of depth and lack of a true post presence. With such talent in their starting lineup, the Blue Devils haven't needed to go deep very often this season, but could the wear and tear of a long tournament start to wear on them? I also think that this is a team that could really get exposed in the paint. Sure, the necessity of a true big man has been diminished in modern basketball, with the growth of three-point shot, but it can still be a problem. How will Duke look to defend and rebound against teams that run their most of their offense through the post, such as Tennessee? They may not seem like huge issues, but they can become a factor in March Madness, and perhaps make all the difference in a competitive game.

The Verdict: With so much pure talent, its hard to imagine a scenario in which Duke doesn't put together some type of NCAA Tournament run., Now, it will be interesting to see whether that is say, an Elite Eight type run or another National Title under Coach K's belt. The only issues that I could see standing in their way has got to be the inexperience, and perhaps depth. Yet, it is also going to be necessary for somebody else to play superb basketball against them, like Gonzaga and Syracuse have done in their lone two losses. Just look at the Louisville game a week ago; the Blue Devils had a terrible shooting night for much of it and Louisville played solid, yet Duke was still able to come down from over 20 points. With that in mind, it looks pretty obvious that Duke is the favorite at this point in the season. That doesn't mean they're going to win, but they do still look head and shoulders above a number of other top contenders. 

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

How the SEC Has Transformed into a Power Basketball Conference

Ashton Hagans & Kentucky
Ever since their original formation nearly an entire century ago, the Southeastern Conference has been defined by what they can do on the gridiron. Programs at Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and more have given us some of the most memorable players and coaches in the history of collegiate football. They've also combined for a total of 41 claimed National Championships on the gridiron, including an impressive amount of success the past two decades. Naturally, the conference has tailed behind in the other main revenue-earning sport, basketball. Outside of Kentucky, no program has risen to a consistent status of a "blue blood" and even schools that have had significant success tend to see it short-lived (see Florida following their two consecutive National Titles in '05-'06). However, as we go deeper in the 2019 college hoops season, it has become clear that the SEC is likely the best conference in the sport. This comes one year after the sport placed eight teams in the NCAA Tournament and two years after the league got three teams in the Elite Eight during March. Its clear the SEC has risen to one of the most consistently strong leagues in the country, but how did it happen? Will it last? It appears it will, particularly with the talent that continues to flock to the league every summer.

The most defining change in SEC basketball over the past few seasons has undoubtedly been on the sidelines, where the conference has brought in some of the best and brightest minds in the sport. There is now an interesting mix of old, well-respected names as well as guys who seem to only be getting better. Look no further than names like Rick Barnes, Ben Howland and Avery Johnson, three guys who enter their fourth year with their respective programs. Barnes went from exiled at Texas to leading Tennessee to a No. 1 ranking in less than five years, Howland fell out of favor at UCLA but has done an impressive job at Mississippi State and then there is Johnson, who has done a superb job at an unquestionable football school. Then there is the younger guys who seem to be getting better by the passing day, such as LSU's Will Wade, Vanderbilt's Bryce Drew and Ole Miss' Kermit Davis. Wade has rose quickly from VCU to LSU and continues to gain momentum, Drew keeps on landing big names on the recruiting trail and Davis' first season with the Rebels has been quite the success after coming over from Middle Tennessee. These new additions to the sidelines down South have been the largest reason why the league's profile has improved so rapidly. Teams are better coached, better disciplined and in turn, they just play better basketball. Outside of perhaps the ACC, there isn't a better collection of head coaches and this league appears to go deeper than their main rivals in the Southeast.

Just as crucial to the success of the SEC has been how well these new coaches have hit the recruiting trail, and taken advantage of the fertile recruiting grounds in the area. Sure, John Calipari has been reeling in top recruiting classes for a decade now, but its the guys that are going to unexpected schools that have really boosted the conference. For example, Avery Johnson beat out other blue bloods in the sport to bring in two five-star recruits at Alabama, and that was not a lone aberration. Missouri landed former No. 1 overall recruit Michael Porter Jr., Vanderbilt and Drew brought in two five-star recruits to this year's recruiting class, Will Wade landed the fourth best class in the country also with multiple five-star recruits and Tom Crean appears to be doing magical things at Georgia. Crean, who is in his first season with the Bulldogs, managed to keep future five-star recruit Anthony Edwards in-state, possibly the biggest recruiting victory in UGA basketball history. Edwards, who is from Atlanta, is currently the No. 2 player in the 2019 class according to 247 Sports and could be a future No. 1 overall draft pick. These types of players just simply aren't what the conference used to be able to land, but now they're coming in waves. Even if not every prospect lives up to lofty expectations, the talent level in the SEC is still shooting up. When you have five and four-star prospects regularly playing each other, it not only improves the level of play but also brings in new eyes to what this conference can continue to be.

From top to bottom, the league and its programs have invested in the sport like we haven't seen them do really ever. Kentucky is no longer carrying the conference; they have to fight for every single recruit and in every single game they play. Look no further than the money Mississippi State has poured into their program to get an idea of how much this league has committed to basketball. The program just announced an impressive renovation of their Humphrey Coliseum basketball arena, and has seen their attendance numbers skyrocket to over 3 million last season. With all the money that is currently flowing in college basketball, its evident to see the league take advantage of rich TV contracts and revenue streams. It has risen the league's profile to brand new heights, and it doesn't appear to be stopping anytime soon.

Football probably will still be the life blood of sports fans in the Southeast for the future, but its impressive how SEC basketball has had such a meteoric rise. The thing is, with such young, talented head coaches the conference could get only be getting better. Will they follow up this continuing momentum with a strong March? With Tennessee, Kentucky and LSU all playing some superb basketball, it certainly appears so.

Friday, February 8, 2019

Scouting the Contenders 2019: Tennessee Volunteers

Admiral Schofield, Tennessee
As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, and scouts their strengths and weaknesses and just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We begin with the nation's current No. 1 team, the Tennessee Volunteers.

Track Record

  • 21-1 overall record, 9-0 in the SEC
  • Notable Victories: vs. Gonzaga 76-73, vs. Louisville 92-81, vs. Alabama 71-68
  • Only loss to then-No. 2 Kansas 87-81
  • Has won 17 consecutive games
  • First No. 1 ranking since 2008
Scouting Report: In just his fourth season on Rocky Top, former long-time Texas head coach Rick Barnes has built a winner. Tennessee has gone from floundering for years in the post-Bruce Pearl era to the favorite in the SEC, and their first No. 1 ranking in over a decade. What is impressive and unique about this particular Tennessee team is that they play a brand of basketball distinctively different than the way modern basketball is trending. The Volunteers lean on a physical offense that plays inside-out basketball, even with a solid crop of shooters on the roster. Tennessee shoots three-pointers roughly 24 percent of the time down the court, which comes in at 330th in the entire nation. This reliance on post play is understandable considering the configuration of the roster; UT has two of the better forwards in the SEC, if not the nation. Junior Grant Williams has been terrific all year, and looks like a serious contender for National Player of the Year. He's a polished, versatile forward that has been unstoppable at times, including dropping 43 points in an overtime victory over Vanderbilt. Admiral Schofield has also been a crucial piece to this team's success, and is a valuable No. 2 scorer. Schofield, a senior who has been instrumental in the Volunteers' rise under Barnes, continues to expand his game. He's always been effective getting inside and finishing through contact, but his improved three-point shooting is important for this offense. Add in a trio of guards, Jordan Bone, Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden, and you understand why this Tennessee offense is currently averaging 86 points a game, which is sixth in the country. Defensively, they aren't quite as strong, and have been forced to win a few shootouts. The big question mark for this defense will be stopping opponents beyond the arc, and forward Kyle Alexander playing smarter. Alexander has been prone to foul trouble, which has really hurt a team that doesn't have much size to begin with. And, the Volunteers don't defend the three-point line as well as they should, which could haunt them once they get deep into the NCAA Tournament. With that being said, there is still a ton to like about this Tennessee squad, and a reason they are the top team in the country. They are well-rounded on both sides of the ball, have depth up and down the roster and a lot of experience, crucial elements to any deep postseason run. They also have the motivation factor; after a tremendous run through the SEC a year ago, the Volunteers were one of many who fell victim to Loyola-Chicago's improbable Final Four run. They want to come out and prove that was a fluke and that they are truly one of the best in the country, as does Rick Barnes. Barnes is well-respected around the country for his ability to develop talent, but he hasn't gotten past the second round in the NCAA Tournament in over a decade, when he went to the Elite Eight in '08.

The Verdict: Considering they currently sit atop the polls and have now for three weeks, it would be insane to call Tennessee "underrated". Yet, this still seems like the type of team that is going to get ignored by a lot of people when compared to Duke and Kentucky's talent or Virginia's suffocating defense. Personally, I'm incredibly high on this Volunteers team, and while it may be over a month until the start of the NCAA Tournament, think they'll go far. The big question this team is going to have to answer centers around the three-point line on both sides of the ball. They're going to face teams that have hot shooting nights, or teams that can make life difficult on offense. Can they keep up with very good shooting teams? Will they be able to defend beyond the arc well enough to keep up? These are valid concerns, but Tennessee has plenty of conference play action left to answer them, and give us more of an insight into what they can do. As it stands, I'm a firm believer in UT, and think they are one of the safest bets to go far in what should be an interesting NCAA Tournament.




Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Big Ten Power Rankings 2019: Edition 2

Carsen Edwards, Purdue
1. Michigan Wolverines 20-2 overall, 9-2 conference Previous Ranking: 1
The Wolverines have slowed down after their fast start to conference play, but they still remain the tentative favorite in a shifting conference. A recent loss in Iowa City to the Hawkeyes stings, but it wasn't altogether surprising. The good news is that Michigan still remains a terrific defensive team (allowing 57.0 PPG, second in the entire country) and their next three road games are extremely winnable, as they face Rutgers, Penn State and then Minnesota away from home. It will be interesting to see if Michigan can regain some of their offensive flow that has eroded over recent weeks. In order for that to happen, young forward Ignas Brazdeikis must become more consistent, and the Wolverines have to shoot better from downtown.
2. Purdue Boilermakers 16-6 overall, 9-2 conference Previous Ranking: 10
Give a lot of credit to this Purdue team; they recovered from a tough non-conference slate where they went 7-4 and are now playing the best basketball in the conference. The guiding force to their improved play has been undoubtedly Carsen Edwards. The 2018 All-American has left off right where he started, and is notching 24.5 PPG. Down the stretch, the key for this Boilermakers team will be how they play in the paint. Matt Haarms has been okay in an extended role, as has junior Evan Boudreaux, but in a conference that leans heavily on its physical nature, Purdue needs even more contributions from their frontcourt. Purdue's schedule the next few weeks is very manageable, so it looks like they should be able to keep up their impressive play.
3. Michigan State Spartans 18-4 overall, 9-2 conference Previous Ranking: 2
Two straight losses to teams from Indiana (Purdue and the Hoosiers) dropped the Spartans from undefeated in the league to a three-way tie for first place. However, Tom Izzo's teams tend to traditionally play better down the stretch, and the Spartans are still certainly dangerous. Superb point guard Cassius Winston runs one of the sport's most efficient offenses, and he appears to be one of the favorites to win Big Ten Player of the Year. What really hurts this team is the absence of guard Josh Langford who was having an extremely productive year before a stress injury in his foot ended the year. That should put pressure on other wings to step up in his absence, namely youthful Aaron Henry.
4. Wisconsin Badgers 16-6 overall, 8-3 conference Previous Ranking: 7
The Badgers remain one of the most confounding teams in college basketball. They entered the new year with a bad non-conference loss to Western Kentucky and lost three of four in Big Ten play. Yet, they've recovered admirably, with five straight victories and an upset over Michigan to boot. Forward Ethan Happ remains as the unquestioned leader of this team, but improved play from guards D'Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison has been the main fuel behind their improved play. Davison in particular has impressed with his silky smooth shooting; he is coming off a showing where he was 4-6 from three in a win over Maryland. While they still remain confusing this Wisconsin team clearly is a threat that can beat anybody in this conference when they're playing well. They are just as much of a threat to win a Big Ten Title as the three ahead of them here.
5. Maryland Terrapins 17-6 overall, 8-4 conference Previous Ranking: 3
A lot of people were surprised by Maryland's hot start to conference play, and while they've slowed down, they still remain a threat. The Terrapins have dropped three of four, but they still remain a team that can move the ball and has a premier post presence in budding forward Bruno Fernando. Yet, the really concerning issue for this Maryland team is their upcoming slate, which gets brutal as February marches on. Over their next four, the Terps go on the road against Nebraska, Michigan and Iowa and get Purdue at home. Thats a terrifying stretch for a team that is sliding slightly; if they don't come out .500 in those games, things could go south quickly.
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers 16-6 overall, 6-5 conference Previous Ranking: 4
A hard-fought road loss to Purdue dropped Minnesota to 6-5 in the conference, and likely on the bubble at this point. They have some good wins, such as a road victory against Wisconsin and a non-conference win over Washington but also have some bad losses (ahem, Illinois). The improved health of big man Eric Curry and great play from freshman Daniel Oturu has helped their frontcourt, but what this team really lacks is a true floor general at point guard. The only true PG on their roster, sophomore Isaiah Washington, has really struggled and is shooting just 32% from the field. If they don't figure out that problem at some point over the next couple weeks, they could be in store for a tough February, with a couple tough road games.
7. Iowa Hawkeyes 17-5 overall, 6-5 conference Previous Ranking: 6
Their recent upset of Michigan helped Iowa jump to No. 20 in the polls, and they look like a team ready to rise up the rankings in this conference. Offensively, the Hawkeyes are among the best in the Big Ten, with two great forwards in Tyler Cook and Luke Garza, along with a high-scoring backcourt. Now, the key for them will be figuring out how to keep opponents from doing the same; in their last three losses they've allowed an average of 86.7 points. While they do on the road twice over their next three, the Hawkeyes face down what should be a good schedule for them.
8. Ohio State Buckeyes 14-7 overall, 4-6 conference Previous Ranking: 9
After a brutal five-game losing streak to begin the major chunk of their league play, Ohio State has figured things out, winning two of their last three. They remain out of the NCAA Tournament picture right now, but there is still ample time to make things up. Any hope of returning to serious contention in the conference would likely center around veteran point guard C.J. Jackson. After an up-and-down start to Big Ten action, Jackson notched 20 points in the Buckeyes' recent win over Rutgers. With matchups against Penn State, struggling Indiana and Illinois over their next three, don't count out this OSU squad just yet.
9. Indiana Hoosiers 13-9 overall, 4-7 conference Previous Ranking: 8
Entering this weekend's meeting with Michigan State coming off seven consecutive losses, Indiana didn't look like they had any chance. Instead, they stunned MSU in front of their home crowd, and perhaps completely changed the trajectory of the rest of their season. They still have work to do if they want to get back into the NCAA Tournament mix, but they do still retain one of the most explosive guards in the entire country in Romeo Langford. The X-factor could end up being forward Juwan Morgan, who has to recover from a shoulder injury.
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers 13-9 overall, 3-8 conference Previous Ranking: 5
Once a Top 25 team, things have gone downhill fast in Lincoln, as Nebraska has now lost five straight. The big issue has been an offense that has lost its punch, and has really struggled with turning the ball over. Wing James Palmer Jr. remains a dangerous offensive weapon, but he needs to get better shots. On this five-game losing streak, he has shot just 33 percent and doesn't seem to have the confidence he had earlier in the year. Unless he figures that out, any shot at a postseason berth will definitely go out the window.
11. Rutgers Scarlet Knights 11-10 overall, 4-7 conference Previous Ranking: 12
It hasn't exactly been the quickest or most impressive turnaround, but Steve Pikiell continues to dig Rutgers out of the cellar they've been in since joining the Big Ten. This year's Rutgers squad has been respectable, and was recently riding a nice little three game win streak. They still don't have a very explosive offense, but have instead focused on play sound, physical defense. It has worked for them, and this team is not a fun team to play anymore. Can they continue their improved stretch? The rest of February is tough, with games against Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa looming.
12. Northwestern Wildcats 12-10 overall, 3-8 conference Previous Ranking: 11
This Northwestern team certainly won't be earning the program a second ever trip to March Madness, but they could still rise up the totem pole if they can find some offense. They haven't been great offensively all season, but it has been very bad the last couple games, especially with just 46 on the road against Wisconsin. It isn't like the Wildcats don't have talent, as Vic Law and Derek Pardon are two of the better frontcourt players in the entire conference. The biggest issue has been the Wildcats' putrid shooting from deep, which absolutely has to change.
13. Illinois Fighting Illini 7-15 overall, 3-8 conference Previous Ranking: 14
The Fighting Illini had a disastrous start to league play but they've been playing significantly down the stretch. They are coming off a strong showing in a win over Nebraska and at the time of publishing, hold a halftime lead over Michigan State. Guard Trent Frazier hasn't been very consistent but is starting to look like the clear-cut No. 1 option on this offense, while freshman Giorgi Bezhanishvili has been a revelation. Again, this team won't be playing in the postseason, but they could still establish some momentum for next fall, which will be Brad Underwood's third in Champaign.
14. Penn State Nittany Lions 8-14 overall, 1-10 conference Previous Ranking: 13
After winning the NIT Title last spring, this year has gone quite a bit different for the Nittany Lions. They lost their first ten games in Big Ten action, before a recent seven point victory over Northwestern. The thing is, they aren't exactly getting blown out these games. Their last four losses have all been very competitive and with forward Lamar Stevens, they have a go-to scorer. This team needs to step up and figure things out late in games, because they appear to be better than a 1-10 record may indicate.